TL Mafia LXI - Page 4

On April 25 2013 06:32 VisceraEyes wrote:

I already told you not to bus me you shit.

On April 26 2013 00:12 yamato77 wrote:
The reason I think Palmar might be mafia is delving a bit into WIFOM, but it's an interesting thought.

The explanation of night actions that we know of is complicated, given that we have 1 role block unaccounted for and 1 KP unaccounted for. I will discuss here the relevant possibilities of all of the combination of events that could have led to the situation we are at now and discuss the likelihood of each event.

1) Palmar is role blocked by town JK and shot, and Vivax is shot, while scum JK either goes unused or was used on a scum player who did not claim it. I feel like this is not very likely. Scum would want to jail offensively, because they have no chance of blocking town KP on themselves or on another town. If true, however, Palmar is confirmed town.

2) Vivax was double-stacked and jailed, and Palmar was jailed by town. Palmar's alignment is unknown, but scum deny town a ton of information, as we see. RB+KP combo is a common mafia tactic for this reason. The variation that semi-confirms Palmar would be if town JK protected Vivax and scum offensively jailed Palmar, and Vivax was still double stacked. That feels more unlikely than the former.

3) Scum double stacked Vivax, role blocked Palmar, and town JK'd offensively and hit mafia, but they didn't claim. I feel this is unlikely, because a role block claim on N1 is a soft town claim, and town JK should be defensive N1 because you can't stop KP.

4) Scum KP was on Vivax and an Vet or SK/SP, who didn't claim being hit, scum JK went unused/used on mafia or was double stacked on Palmar with town JK. Town vet has no reason not to claim, as scum already know from claims that they are vet and can die tonight. Claiming might actually help keep confirmed town alive. Third party are fucked for this rationale, but would have claimed vet with the shot, I believe. This seems unlikely, based on claims so far.

So unless there are claims of shots taken or role blocks notified that have yet to be made, it is either 1 or 2, with 2 being more likely in my opinion. Combined with Palmar's somewhat disinterested play, and his insistence that VE is mafia throughout the game while consenting to some of town's wagons, this makes me believe he might be mafia.

Perhaps this is the truth even if VE is mafia, as Palmar's "push" of him feels weak, and the VE lynch has been successfully resisted twice now. Regardless of VE's alignment, then, Palmar should be looked upon with some degree of suspicion. I'd consider lynching him today.

On April 26 2013 00:20 yamato77 wrote:
So I guess the simplest explanation for last night's actions is actually that there's only one JK, he's town, saved Palmar from 1 KP, and scum shot Vivax.

Or Vivax was doublestacked, which feels unlikely.

On April 26 2013 00:22 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:


I guess so eh. I feel like BC is scummy. I have no idea why people think BM is town, however.

On April 26 2013 00:34 ObviousOne wrote:
Sounds good help me out and we can just lynch you at LYLO.

On April 26 2013 00:35 yamato77 wrote:
The reason I'm running through all this is that I'm not particularly happy with any of the lynches that most of town is talking about. VE of yesterday feels somewhat town. I feel like more time would only bury scum VE or give chance to solidify a town read on VE. There's absolutely no rush for his lynch to be finalized.

Shaio is easy to mislynch, as evidenced by the suspicion on him in day 2 of British Empire 1, also an instant lynch where he was lurkish, and eventually replaced. The worst part of his filter is the hammer sequence, but even that could be explained by overly eager town who got caught up in the game emotionally.

Clarity is always inactive, and him being fixated on Sharrant is not alignment indicative. His case is objectively something that scum like to do, but in the context of the game, I can see a town Clarity who had a late start feeling the need to get his thoughts about the game on the table, even if they weren't about the main lynch candidates. The fact that he basically has no other reads in the game is a point in his favor, but just like VE, we can afford to play a waiting game with him, seeing as we have unlimited time.

At the very least, we need real discussion about the alignments of Ace/BC/Palmar before we move forward with any lynch. Ace is the most town out of the three, and BC the least, in my eyes. I'd say a long day is in order, and town need to consolidate pressure upon just a few people so that we can determine their alignments more clearly.

On April 26 2013 00:48 ObviousOne wrote:
For the record, on N1 my read of BC was "makes me rage, could be town"

I'll look him over again along with clarity when I do the filters thing.

Ace is interesting. He championed the d1 lynch wagons as the only choices (outside of any further cases) and pushed to move things along despite us having no time limit.

On April 26 2013 00:48 yamato77 wrote:

I have very similar sentiments about Ace, but just the fact that he seems RELATIVELY town when compared to most of the game makes me feel like he's not a good lynch for a while.

BC, though, I've seen be a negative force in many towns, acting superior and being a dick. What I haven't seen is him being lazy enough with his scum reads that he fails to properly justify them. A good bit of his filter is also devoted to policy lynch discussion about the miller claim thing, which is disturbing. I feel like a look st his filter from Personality 2 might give me some insight into his alignment, as he was town shot N1 in that game. I don't particularly remember much of it, as the game was such a blur of spam.