EPTI've pretty much started over at square one on my reads now since they were so far off to start.
If the JusticeVigi shot a townie, but was medic healed would they survive? Would the townie he shot at die?
At this point I'm taking BM's claim at pretty much face value, it at least lines up with the what's gone on so far. And above is the last question I think I need to ask before I can be relatively sure of what actually happened.
With that in mind, starting from the point of BM being Justice Vig and shooting Caller, I believe that makes ObviousOne and Rayn near confirmed town. Now this only applies 100% if the answers to the above are not: Survive, and die. If those are the answers than there's some chance for error, but I think BM would have been fairly low down a doctors save list for last night.
Caller had just used his power to execute a mafia member very publicly. I think in everyone's eyes that bought him a huge amount of town cred. I don't see him using that town cred to follow it up with a bus against another mafioso.
On April 09 2013 05:22 Caller wrote:
i'm bad so lets lynch obviousone tomorrow actually
i'm bad so lets lynch obviousone tomorrow actually
On April 09 2013 10:37 Caller wrote:
so lets lynch rayn please
so lets lynch rayn please
On April 09 2013 20:52 Caller wrote:
lets kill rayn pls
lets kill rayn pls
On April 08 2013 11:19 Caller wrote:
Alright guys just kidding we kill ObviousOne.
I threw the vote on artanis because mafia love bandwagons. Now that we've gotten one, it seems pretty obvious to me that people we should be looking for are on the lower parts of the bandwagon list. But not the last one. Given that, who we we have?
As a rule I usually try to lynch the 3rd or 4th person on the bandwagon. Since I was the 3rd person on the bandwagon, that leaves Monsieur Oatsmaster as a rather fishy hanger-on to the bandwagon. I already made a case on why I wanted to lynch him, but I don't see him as a threat right now. Still keep dis in mind plox.
Meapak_Ziphh? Who knows. I don't care enough right now to find out.
Null tell.
Null tell.
I don't really know what Artanis is due to lack of effort, but this follow-on vote to deconduo is pretty scummy.
:|
ah, the typical OMGUS. Normally could be a townie war, except that this is a bandwagon. Very Scummy.
Hmm. You want to make my life interesting, do you? 8 times out of 10 that I see this, it is a mafia trying to get town cred for not voting for obvious day 1 townie lynch. Vewy Intewesting.
Ah, and we get to the core of the matter. This guy has done nothing but throw ambivalency around. Yet now he's so sure that he will hop-on the bandwagonn. If you were really not sure about this and you were town, you'd be like "HANG ONS GUYS I THINKS HE MIGHT BE OKAY" and then watch helplessly as the bandwagon gains infinite momentum and lynches innocent townie #1. But nope, instead you're like "but wait guys i read his meta and came out with some random conclusions that don't actually mean anything because meta is stupid especially among players that have played this game more than three days." I actually went ahead and read his filter for those games, and I think that your conclusions are bullshit that can easily be construed as whatever you want.. Given that he explicitly stated that as mafia he would be "next time" more involved, but that he simply got lost due to large amount of posts, do you expect any credence that his behaving similar to the previous game is any true indication of his alignment this game? No. You shouldn't. And it's a dumb reason for going on a dumb bandwagon, but it makes you look nice! VOTE THIS GUY.
I'm fairly satisfied that yamato is town as it stands. I'll still jump on him in a heartbeat but I don't think he's mafia.
Strangely enough, I think RO is town. Are you gonna get a reason for it? Nope.
Alright guys just kidding we kill ObviousOne.
I threw the vote on artanis because mafia love bandwagons. Now that we've gotten one, it seems pretty obvious to me that people we should be looking for are on the lower parts of the bandwagon list. But not the last one. Given that, who we we have?
As a rule I usually try to lynch the 3rd or 4th person on the bandwagon. Since I was the 3rd person on the bandwagon, that leaves Monsieur Oatsmaster as a rather fishy hanger-on to the bandwagon. I already made a case on why I wanted to lynch him, but I don't see him as a threat right now. Still keep dis in mind plox.
Meapak_Ziphh? Who knows. I don't care enough right now to find out.
Null tell.
Null tell.
I don't really know what Artanis is due to lack of effort, but this follow-on vote to deconduo is pretty scummy.
:|
ah, the typical OMGUS. Normally could be a townie war, except that this is a bandwagon. Very Scummy.
Hmm. You want to make my life interesting, do you? 8 times out of 10 that I see this, it is a mafia trying to get town cred for not voting for obvious day 1 townie lynch. Vewy Intewesting.
Ah, and we get to the core of the matter. This guy has done nothing but throw ambivalency around. Yet now he's so sure that he will hop-on the bandwagonn. If you were really not sure about this and you were town, you'd be like "HANG ONS GUYS I THINKS HE MIGHT BE OKAY" and then watch helplessly as the bandwagon gains infinite momentum and lynches innocent townie #1. But nope, instead you're like "but wait guys i read his meta and came out with some random conclusions that don't actually mean anything because meta is stupid especially among players that have played this game more than three days." I actually went ahead and read his filter for those games, and I think that your conclusions are bullshit that can easily be construed as whatever you want.. Given that he explicitly stated that as mafia he would be "next time" more involved, but that he simply got lost due to large amount of posts, do you expect any credence that his behaving similar to the previous game is any true indication of his alignment this game? No. You shouldn't. And it's a dumb reason for going on a dumb bandwagon, but it makes you look nice! VOTE THIS GUY.
I'm fairly satisfied that yamato is town as it stands. I'll still jump on him in a heartbeat but I don't think he's mafia.
Strangely enough, I think RO is town. Are you gonna get a reason for it? Nope.
Those posts were at the very end of his life, and I don't think he had any reason to believe he would die. It seems to me that if Caller was actually mafia, then Oats and Rayn have to be town because he immediately started pushing for both of them to be lynched. He certainly had the town cred to be able to force either or both of their lynches after the Artanis kill. I don't see how him bussing another mafia member could be a valid plan at that point after VE died as well. They'd have to be trying to go for a mislynch.
Obviously if BM is not the Justice Vigi this all falls apart, so if someone else is the justice vigi, I think it would help the town.
The other thing is Caller's quick mention of RO at the end of that quote. If he had known he was going to die, I would think that he would put a mafia as a "not sure why, but I think this person as town" to try and WIFOM a mafia into looking a bit townier. But because he didn't have any reason to think he was going to die, I would assume that RO is town, and that Caller was trying to make himself look better by calling someone who is possible to mislynch for sure town for when they flip later.
The last bit can certainly be flipped on its head over and over with WIFOM, but in my head that's the most plausible solution because they're the choices that maxmize the reward and minimize the risk in my mind.
