EPTI thought you meant TL Mafia XXXIX
G'nite.
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I thought you meant TL Mafia XXXIX G'nite. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 10:38 marvellosity wrote: This is to Kei. I'm literally going to bed immediately after this post. I'm assuming there's 4 mafia in a 16 player setup, that seems obvious. Hapa is way too sensible and town-leader-y to be mafia I think. You/Corazon/s&b have claims that I can't disbelieve right now. I assume sinani and Smurf are mafia. This leaves 2 mafia. That's out of Oats/Acro/Dandel/rayn/prplhz/OO I can't see prplhz being mafia with Smurf, that makes no sense. Palmar and I had townread on Oats, so for now I'll discount him as well. That leaves Acro/Dandel/Rayn/OO From my POV 2 of them are gonna be mafia. I'm not sure on any of them. Dandel has threatened to shoot me twice (check out his references to Themed where he NKed me as town). OO maybe seems townie? I dunno. All these players I can give vague reasons for being town. Maybe i'll find time tomorrow to check into it, maybe i won't. But that's how i basically view the game right now. See, I don't think it is likely at all that Acro and Sinani are mafia together. Sure, Acro was in there day 1 pushing the counter-wagon to Sinani after I claimed, but: On March 29 2013 06:56 Acrofales wrote: I have time for one more filter and picked Sinani. I actually think there's a good chance he's scum. 1. He was cagey on the OO claim. He didn't just have an opinion, but was very careful, as if he didn't want to stick his neck out. 2. No reads. He has given his opinion of Nisani. Other than that? Nothing. I don't even know what he thought of OO with the lack of a role PM. A minor blurb about prplhz. I had a quick look at Sinani's town meta (think I only ever played with him as scum) and he seems more useful. I agree that he is more active than his usual scumgame, but a 2 page filter is not exactly the paragon of an active townie. Sinani, who do you want to lynch, why? Why have you not said anything at all about anybody except Nisani. As an added bonus, Nisani thought he was scum at the end, and they have a long history together. It might have been an OMGUS and I have to save myself, but he did give a scumread on Sinani. He had already been saying that Smurf was his top read. For the sake of argument, let's assume that all 3 of them are scum (Acro, Smurf, and sinani). Acro could probably see that Smurf wasn't able to be saved, so he jumps in the town sentiment with the bus. But, why would he throw sinani out there too? I mean, it's not like town would have forgotten about sinani anyways, but it makes very very little sense to bus both of your teammates like that. If was going to spend the time to look at "one more filter" and conclude that person was scum to push alongside Smurf, why his partner instead of some "weaker" townie? I just don't see it. So yea, I find it very unlikely that Acro and Sinani are scum together. I would put my bets on one of them being scum, but not both. So which one? I think Acro has a much, much higher chance of being scum than sinani. As far as I can tell, the case on sinani basically boils down to 1) lurking, 2) no strong reads, 3) Nisani thought he was scum, and he thought Nisani was scum, and since they are friends they should know each other better. So I flipped through 5-6 town sinani games. Just from looking over his filters with no context, in none of them was he exactly a beacon of townieness. He had ~1 page of filter in most. He had very little in the way of reads in most, especially thought out reads (the exception being MLP, where he did have a couple posts with 5-6 lines of solid thought). Hell, I even cross-referenced games that sinani and Nisani were both town in. In Starship, town sinani votes for town Nisani before he got lynched day 1. So meh, sinani could be scum, he could not be. I don't think any of the cases on him are super strong though, and since I don't believe sinani and Acro are scum *together*, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say I actually think sinani is town and that Acro is scum. Now, why is Acro scum? Well, first off, look at the post I quoted earlier. Acro "had a look at sinani's town meta and he seems more useful". I encourage you all to go look for yourselves, and see if what I described makes more sense or Acro's version. I mean, sinani is a player who has been lynched day 1 FOUR times as town (in 14 town games). And either survived or been end-gamed another 4 times. So in ~60% of his town-games he was either scummy enough to be lynched on day 1, or useless enough to never be nightkilled. Acro's description doesn't ring true, to me. It reads like someone who wants to look like he's contributing useful input, but didn't actually. + Show Spoiler + Semi-irrelevant because it can't be proven, but it also feels awfully "convenient" that the "one last filter" that Acro decided to flip through became his "Yep, this guy is scum. Push push push!" especially when Acro had been hard pushing his counter-wagon day 1. On March 29 2013 07:07 Acrofales wrote: I survived!  Is it just me, or does that read fake a hell? I'm going to go back a bit for this next part: On March 26 2013 13:35 Acrofales wrote: I am null on Marv. However, town Marv just got horrifically burned in Personality. I can see him being cautious and off his game. Anyway, calling Marv scum (for realz, not for trollz) today is pointless. It will just cause a horrific tunnelfest that shits up the thread. Either Marv will get back into his groove and prove his value to town, or he won't and we lynch him later. Reasonable sentiment. I even expressed something similar myself. But: On March 27 2013 12:14 Acrofales wrote: I don't trust you at all. What happened: You give a read on OO saying he isn't playing scared, which is the main theme of his scum game: I said that I thought he was quite timid this game and wasn't sticking his neck out on anything: You posted the meta to show how OO is timid when he's scum: And now comes the bait and switch, because any meta read must have two sides. You can't just say "he's not scum because he's not playing similar to his scum meta", unless it is completely obvious that he IS playing similar to his town meta. I looked at OO's town games at that is blatantly not the case. Now instead of retracting the meta read you're like "well, I meant that he wasn't scared", which is what we argued about in the first place. You are pulling an InsertSmurfHere. You cite half a meta case and then do fancy handwaving to make the other half go away. But you're not Yamato and should know better. ##unvote ##vote Marvellosity I thought he wasn't going to call marv scum for realz? Did he just forget? His entire premise for not wanting to call marv scum was to not cause a shitfit that sidetracks the thread and a potentially town marv. But then what happens: he gets in a shitfit with marv that went on for hours (even into the next real life day) and sidetracks the thread. I can't see any townie motivation for that. On March 29 2013 09:31 Acrofales wrote: That's mainly because I'm very unsure of Marv. I had a scumread on him, but during the night it sort of went away. I want to hear those reads he promised, so I have nothing much to say about Marv at the moment. "I want to see if the marv bandwagon is going to take off before I give any opinions about him." But more importantly, I wasn't putting a gun to his head and saying "Do you want to lynch marv right now? Why or why not?" I just wanted some thoughts, since he made the case on marv, called him scum a few times after that, then never followed up with it at all. What made him change his read on marv during the night? Why not share his thoughts since I specifically asked him for them? + Show Spoiler [mildly irrelevant] + And like I said earlier, his push onto Smurf smells very much like a necessary bus. Maybe that's "association before flips" case, but meh. Thread sentiment was already turning pretty hard towards Smurf (IMHO) when Acro came in and made his case. But I will admit that this point is both unprovable and perfectly possible from a townie. That's why it goes in a "mildly irrelevant" spoiler. Going to drop my vote for now. Someone come around and talk about Acro with me please. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Also, let's discuss Dandel. He's moving up higher and higher on my scum-o-meter. Currently my scumteam looks like Smurf, Acro, Dandel, and one of marv/rayne/prplhz. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 12:17 ObviousOne wrote: Keirathi, trust me on Marv town. This is not a joke, this is for serious. If I could tell you exactly why, I would, but my role does not permit it. In other news, you just pointed out that Acro was pushing on Smurf, and I had a moment of clarity. There was no reason for a scum Acro to push a scum Smurf D1. I am dropping Acro for Smurf. You brought up his having a bullshit townread on prp. Let's talk about Smurf. But....Acro didn't push smurf on day 1. At all. :o He only started pushing him n1, after everyone had already started calling Smurf scum (and by everyone, I mean me, marv, and Hapa specifically because I didn't go back and read who else had started). | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 12:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: Keirathi why no prplhz in your scumlist? On March 30 2013 12:13 Keirathi wrote: Currently my scumteam looks like Smurf, Acro, Dandel, and one of marv/rayne/prplhz. ?? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 12:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sorry. I meant why is prplhz so low in there? Like why is Dandel over prplhz? Basically because prplhz actually has put in some effort into the game. And I've played scum with prplhz, and he literally put 0 effort into it. His posting during night 1 was what I expect of a town prplhz. The reason he's still on the list though is because it didn't come until after Hapa and I had been railing on him. Dandel has just trolled all game. I originally had him leaning town solely because of his activity level and participation, but there's no actual content there and his activity has fallen off dramatically. On March 30 2013 12:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also what makes you think OO is town? I already explained. He is playing very, very, very different than his last scum game. Plus, some pre-game conversations I had with him in the last 2 weeks. He was worried that he was falling into the "bad townie that everyone ignores forever" category, and he genuinely wanted to improve. Everything about his play this game feels like he's working hard and putting in the effort to become a better player, even if he has been misguided at times. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 12:43 sinani206 wrote: How can you say that prpl is putting effort into this game? The only effort I see is his self-defense on day one. Everything else is forced and/or sheepy and/or trolly. And why do his night posts convince you so much? Just read through those again and they don't really show any townie to me Also, he never posted the reads he talked about at night in the thread at daytime They don't convince me. Hence why he's still null'ish to me. But prplhz is a super easy mislynch when he's town. I've seen it happen too many times. I'm more convinced of Smurf/Acro, so I'm willing to give prplhz some more time to step his game up. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 13:06 ObviousOne wrote: Did I have it backwards? There's a nugget somehow related to my erroneous presentation. Smurf was not on Acro d1 but Acro was on Smurf D1? Need to go verify this in filters in a moment. If it was the case that Acro was on Smurf D1 then that's what I was trying to say. I opened both filters briefly to look and that might be why I got all mucked up. If that's still wrong then I don't even know what I was thinking. I blame my Warcraft addiction =[ Neither of them were attacking each other day 1. Not sure what you're talking about Acro mentioned Smurf a few times early in day 1, but never followed up on it and never even called him scum, just questioned him a couple of times. Then during night 1, Acro made his case on Smurf, and then Smurf countered it and started pushing Acro. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 13:12 ObviousOne wrote: The case is here, but it comes in N1 since he was certain Nisani was scum before the flip: + Show Spoiler [acro case on ISH] + On March 28 2013 07:34 Acrofales wrote: Smurf: 3 particular things make him scum: 1. If Smurf is Yamato, he has played at least 2 games with a town DI (British 1 and Personality 2) and thus cannot simply claim ignorance of how DI plays as town. Even if he can be forgiven the remarkable oversight of not looking at DI's townplay, his excuse of ignorance here is a lie. 2. His scumreads: All 3 of his scumreads throughout the game:Grackaroni, Cora and Nisani. I painted Cora green, because I doubt this is a power play by the scumteam to claim mason. However, most strikingly, look how easily he jumps onto the Nisani is scum wagon. He never even mentions Nisani as a scumread until his completely irrational defense of prplhz (see point 3), when this suddenly happens: + Show Spoiler [prplhz town] + On March 27 2013 15:04 InsertSmurfHere wrote: It's quite easy. Read yamato's analysis of prplhz's meta from Nomination. When you look at his filter from LIX, it is blatantly antagonistic with town and completely uninvolved. Do these posts read trollish to you? Here he's clearly following a line of thought with a few people. While his interaction is minimal, it is far from being distant. This does not read like the mafia prplhz I know. What concerns me about all this is how lazy you are with this push on prplhz. I really think you don't know him well if you think low activity = scum in his case. What is MOST concerning, however, is how easily Nisani jumps in with you. Observe: Two posts, barely mentions prplhz, and he's on the wagon. Regardless of prplhz's alignment, this looks terrible. He's even less concerned with figuring out the game than prplhz appears to be. So... the MOST concerting part of the prplhz case is how easily Nisani jumps on the wagon. So suddenly Nisani has been bombarded to scum, as part of the whole prplhz = town crusade. From that point onwards he never even questions anything else and just blindly wants to lynch Nisani. 3. Irrational defense of prlhz. I would quote posts, but it shat up the thread for about 3 pages. I don't even think this says anything about prplhz's alignment. I can see a scum doing this for a townie (defend the innocent for townie points, when no scumbuddy is in danger of being lynched) or a scumbuddy (given that the alternative at the time was my push on Nisani, which he promptly sheeped he could have been defending his buddy), but the whole thing feels like Smurf had made up his mind before even starting to post on what prplhz's alignment was and was going to defend that stance to the death. And while some of the points he made make sense, when I looked at prplhz's filter at the time, it just read like a scum filter, so it's the complete lack of DOUBT about the alignment that strikes me. That is not the critical mindset of a townie. TLDR: lied to excuse his shoddy case, no critical mindset when analysing players and has only wanted to lynch townies. Verdict: scum. Now lets move onto everybody else. (okay, it's technically not d1) Right. That was n1, after a bunch of people had already started calling Smurf scum. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 13:24 ObviousOne wrote: Smurf's read on prplhz in that second post is also wishy-washy on Dandel. Huh? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
You said "Smurf's read on prplhz" was wishy-washy on Dandel. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 13:47 ObviousOne wrote: My list had 6 names. Of the 6, 4 remain. Between Acro and Smurf I preferred Arco earlier. I didn't like how our conversation ended abruptly yesterday and I thought he might be going down quietly as mafia. However in looking at N2 in its entirety and considering that Acro made a case on smurf first, I don't see a reason for that to happen if both are mafia. Acro had suspicions D1 on Smurf, and Smurf's platform against Acro is that Acro Omgus'd Nisani when in fact this very platform against Acro is omgus itself. Ah okay. That makes sense. So you don't think Acro and Smurf are scum together, but you think Smurf is scum? Also, you still didn't comment on what I said about sinani, and since you're still voting for him I assume you still think he is scum. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 14:00 ObviousOne wrote: Replying from iPod so this will be short and I can embellish later. Your conclusion is that Sinani and Acro can't both be scum. Is that the crux of it? Between the three of them, why can't Acro just have lucky/smart reads and be the only town among them? Acro more likely to be town than Smurf. Unless I missed more of your case and that's not on purpose, it's because Apple product. The "crux" of my post are all the reasons that I think Acro is scum. And if I think Acro is scum, I think sinani isn't scum. And I gave some reasons why: On March 30 2013 12:11 Keirathi wrote: As far as I can tell, the case on sinani basically boils down to 1) lurking, 2) no strong reads, 3) Nisani thought he was scum, and he thought Nisani was scum, and since they are friends they should know each other better. So I flipped through 5-6 town sinani games. Just from looking over his filters with no context, in none of them was he exactly a beacon of townieness. He had ~1 page of filter in most. He had very little in the way of reads in most, especially thought out reads (the exception being MLP, where he did have a couple posts with 5-6 lines of solid thought). Hell, I even cross-referenced games that sinani and Nisani were both town in. In Starship, town sinani votes for town Nisani before he got lynched day 1. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 14:33 ObviousOne wrote: Serious question, if his normal town play is that lacking, how are we supposed to evaluate him? I honestly have no idea. On March 30 2013 14:33 ObviousOne wrote: 1. He's been prodding at prplhz since the vote thing. prplhz responds to it reasonable: Somehow translates into some kind of fatal attack on sinani: Why blow this simple question out of proportion? This could be a valid point, but to me it feels more like a misunderstanding. I don't particularly think he was blowing the question out of proportion, I just think he phrased his counter-question poorly. It reads to me more like a "Do YOU think I'm scum? Why?" type question more than an "OMFG WHY DO YOU HATE ME?" type question. Anyways, that's just my interpretation of it, but I can concede that I might be wrong and it was just an overreaction. On March 30 2013 14:33 ObviousOne wrote: Then he attempted to start a nothing-fight with me, like he's more interested in keeping tabs on the voting thread than in keeping up with the game: I did in fact post in the thread immediately after, and he dropped it just as quickly. How is that make him scum, though? Hell, I called out prplhz for his ninja vote earlier in day 1 (in fact, the same ninja vote that sinani called out in the previous quote train). Townies do it, scum does it. Not alignment indicative. On March 30 2013 14:33 ObviousOne wrote: Discouraging people discussing things at night... I just disagree with this completely and maybe it's the meta here that talking at night "gives mafia more information"? Maybe that should change. Like shit, it was what, 12 minutes to night post. Why even comment on it at this point? Some people on TL just think that night time isn't really the place to start talking about all your reads. I don't agree (especially if we're talking about reads at the deadline), but I don't really fault people for thinking like that. People have different ideals of what they think "good' play is. Everyone plays differently. On March 30 2013 14:33 ObviousOne wrote: Day 2, back on the prplhz train. Calling him trolly. His insinuation that prplhz is somehow being useless to town is the epitome of hypocrisy. And again, how is being a hypocrite a strictly scum trait? Have you never seen a townie be hypocritical? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 15:06 ObviousOne wrote: Not sure this conversation is going to get us much further between each other, maybe the drunk one(s) will chime in at some point with something fresh. prplhz seems like a really easy target coming from a really easy target, and I don't think prplhz is more likely to flip mafia than sinani. That's the only scum read we have from him too; where is our promised follow up regarding Dandel? My entire point is that you are missing the forest for the trees. Do I think sinani is 100% town? No, not even close. Nothing in his play screams town. He's the epitome of the word "null". So do me a favor. Go to the database and open the spoiler and click through sinani's town games, and tell me what you think. Do you think he feels particularly useful? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On March 30 2013 15:29 ObviousOne wrote: Okay, I browsed them to get a feel for them. I really don't know. He hasn't done anything (or not done something he should have) to get modkilled. His filter's past the 2 page mark. I guess I'll unvote him. I'm no expert on meta and I'm probably blasting him for not even trying to be a beacon of shining towniness. You win. What about Acro? I still don't think that both Acro and Smurf are mafia together. I'm not trying to "win". I just want you to recognize the point that I was making. So, you looked over the filters. Now, where did Acro get the "I had a quick look at Sinani's town meta (think I only ever played with him as scum) and he seems more useful" sentiment from? Because I just don't see it. As far as Acro and Smurf being scum together...that's a harder one to answer. Yea, a mutual double bus is uncommon. But it is not completely unheard of (in recent memory, VE and Snarfs went after each other hard on day 1 of Nomination, iirc). There are some mitigating circumstances that make me think it is a possibility here, though. **  isclaimer: everything I'm about to say is in a hypothetical land where Acro and Smurf are both mafia.***So day 1 ends and night 1 starts. Thread sentiment is turning pretty heavily against Smurf. How should Acro react? Does he try to save his buddy, or does he hard bus for the town cred? Remember, Acro hasn't really been under any major suspicion up until this point. The biggest thing against him was how hard he was pushing for the Nisani mislynch, which isn't alignment indicative in itself. So, lets say Acro decides to bus. He throws the case out there after everyone is already calling Smurf mafia. Now, if Smurf realizes that he is more than likely going to die (hell, he has me, marv, Hapa, and now his scumbuddy Acro all pushing his case), what should he do in reaction? What helps the scum team out the most? Attacking the townies who are attacking him, attacking a random townie, or attacking his scumbuddy? It seems to me that it wouldn't be a bad play at all for him to OMGUS onto his scum buddy, because when Smurf does flip mafia, the people he spent a ton of time attacking inherently look better because of it. ***End disclaimer*** I'm not saying that is 100% how it happened or anything, but I think it is a reasonable line of thought. The alternative is so take one of them out of the vote today and wait for flips, but I'm honestly not sure which one I would take out, and who I would replace in. And I'm almost positive that there is at least one scum between the two of them. | ||
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