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On March 16 2013 00:54 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 13:18 flamewheel wrote:
The planting ability was amazingly powerful, and sadly that's all I contributed to this game.
Kudos to my team; you guys did a good job. Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 13:27 GMarshal wrote:
Looking from an outside perspective the mafia roles look really, really strong, especially the death framer. The tratior getting a free town kill when lynched is also... odd, I mean he lynches BC in his place, gets a free kp and forces the town to have to somehow kill him? That seems really, really strong. Not to mention the bomberman being a free extra kp, or the suicide bombers destructive potential.
Mafia seems stacked. Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 13:30 Mig wrote:
Yea the mafia roles are godlike. A bomb kp every single night. A role thief. A scum doctor. A puppetmaster. Pandain is gf + can permanently remove town powers. Syllo was fucking rber and admiral ackbar combined into one role, so anytime he was about to be lynched he could always suicide and kill the best town player. And then to top it off death framer is unreal good. Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 19:40 Curu wrote:
Overall from scum I think the Bombmaker + Flip Framer were too ridiculous. Not to excuse Town's shoddy play and it's understandable that they neeed strong roles to compensate for everyone in Town having a power, but some of them were so ridiculous that they weren't ever going to be used - Vig that dies to a mishot, Vig that dies if he guesses role/alignment wrong, my own ability was purely luck based, and so on.
Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 04:09 Ace wrote:On August 23 2011 19:48 Curu wrote:
Pandain/Palmar were obvious lynches if bum had flipped correctly but the Framer fucked up everything from that trail too.
Maybe you should take that up with Ver and Incog. Death Millers, or any role that flips the opposite alignment on death is generally a bad thing as the Town is going to have incorrect reads for the rest of the game in relation to that player. Mafia of course gets a free pass. Bull. I call bull on all of you. The fact that people are using this to push me as red is ridiculous, because I never used cora's alignment as a determination of another players. All the vets of TL Mafia agree that the death framer was too strong, and you guys think that kita and grey would decide to put it back into the game untouched. Wow. No.
It's not untouched. We got a 12 hour warning. We just have to decide which flip to believe. Was the death framer active for the first 12 hours, or did it only kick in after 12 hours?
Given my read on Cora, I think he was scum and has now been death framed to green. His play was scummy, he flipped red. It all makes sense.
Hopefully KP will tell us something, but scum *could* mess around with that. All I can do is go off my reads, which is that Cora was scum and has been death framed with a 12 hour delay.
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On March 16 2013 01:58 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2013 01:48 marvellosity wrote:On March 16 2013 01:46 Stutters695 wrote:
only issue with that list is I'm not scum. I can see where you're coming from though.
Anyway since I told the person I have to agree with in order to use the 1kp this cell has, looks like you picked a good target in your message, let's go with that
##vote: Vivax NOooo! Shoot FOOLISHNESS! I'd rather let a regular vig do it so it isn't announced and it doesn't get rb'ed. Worst case if foolish lives we just lynch him again and coordinate to put a scummer in second again just in case it's an indefinite thing (I also can't know if the other person already locked in his shot but if he hasn't he can vote differently, we won't shoot and he can add you and we shoot tomorrow.
But... I don't get it. If you have to vote, then it's not you shooting? Or do you only get to shoot if your partner agrees? Or can your vote be roleblocked?
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On March 16 2013 05:25 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2013 05:24 austinmcc wrote:
No, never read WLIAA all the way through, apart from checking some filters when they were relevant to other games. Just take a browse through Crossfire's filter and look at the quality of his posts. Remember in PU he had a mason claim in his back pocket.
I was about to say that PU is not good comparison material, because he was confirmed town due to mason, so he could pretty much get away with murder.
In MTG2 I pegged him as scum ridiculously easily. So he has either improved his game, or he's town. On D1 he looked like scum, but on D2 he had some insightful stuff, mainly about the nukes.
Lets kill the scum we know before worrying about their partners. Associations should help... and the Cora associations are untrustworthy. I tried working from the assumption that Cora is town, but I just tie myself into wifom knots where I have conflicting beliefs about Foolishness and the use of the death miller thing. The whole exercise seems pointless and I end up agreeing that we should just ignore the whole flip and work from our reads without Cora associations, at least for now.
Kill Foolishness. Work from there.
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K. I was starting on my nightly reads and realized that I don't trust Stutters' sleeper cell to do the job. Really, if there is any other vig, they should totally be on Foolishness.
Basically, there is no guarantee that Stutters or his partner are not scum. Yes, I have a bit of a town read on Stutters, but no clue what this sleeper cell business is, and sleeper cell doesn't sound town aligned.
Destroy Foolishness. It's better to be safe than sorry. Shoot Foolishness.
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Acro's Nightly Reads
KILL WITH FIRE
Foolishness. Not much to say that hasn't already been said. I tried some speculation with a town Cora, but his play is just too wrong to be town. Kill!!!
DarthPunk. Ver looked like scum. He then went awol. This bought him a day. He was replaced, but the replacement has done nothing. His single "large" post with content made my scumdar beep crazily:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 16 2013 09:30 DarthPunk wrote:
Well I am really not into messing with flips as a mechanic but sure. The safest way to play is to assume corazon was town and we mislynched, so that is the assumption I am going to be operating under.
However;
The thing that I have been thinking about is the way that Corazon reacted to foolishness' power. he didn't ONCE show doubt as to the workings of his unlynchable power when most of the thread were disbelieving of it to some extent.
Corazon Immediately gave his will and acted as if he was dead DESPITE having far fewer votes on him than Foolishness.
If corazon was town I cannot understand at all his instant belief that he would die for having the second highest vote count or why he wouldn't even try to use his two votes to start a wagon on someone else.
If Corazon was scum then he would KNOW if foolishness was lying or not, regardless of foolishness' alignment. If foolishness is scum then he would simply tell corazon his power. If foolishness is town corazon would have know that and know that foolishness would have no reason to lie about his power like that as a townie.
So I think corazon was probably scum. His behaviour around foolishness' claim and having the second highest votes doesn't make sense as a townie.
I really don't like messing with flips but the behaviour just doesn't make sense if corazon was actually town.
This is his ONLY post with any content. It says "Cora was town, because hosts say so", but "Cora was scum, because behaviour". Way to 1. parrot other people's opinion and 2. not actually voice an opinion. It is the wishy wash. It says nothing. Pile this on with Ver's behaviour, and I say we KILL him.
The rest is a bit of a mess. I don't think scum is dumb enough to have all of their eggs in one basket, so there is no way Foolishness, Vivax and Sloosh were trying to get Marv and Yamato killed all game together as a scumteam. No way does a scumteam go through the game as a team of buttbuddies. It just doesn't make sense.
I still think Vivax is probably town for meta reasons. I trust my meta read in Vivax more than most, because Vivax is far far far more hateful and aggressive as town than he is as scum. He has been insufferable this game (with that cancer-dick post as completely over the line nasty), and it reminds me 100% of LIX.
The other scum is hiding in this list: sloosh, risk.nuke, crossfire, HiroPro
The townies: Stutters, Oats, prplhz, Vivax, SnB, Dandel Ion, Mocsta, Iamperfection, Yamato, Promethelax, Marvellosity, austinmcc
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On March 16 2013 10:33 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2013 10:32 yamato77 wrote:
DP that is not the kind of post to make.
Let's see that case. Care to actually say something when you are saying something? WTF is: 'That is not the kind of post to make' If you can convince me that their is ANY value to posting my case before the daypost I will but I don't see any so far so I won't.
DP has time to bicker with other people in the thread, effectively ADDING to the amount of useless crap in it.
DP does not have time to finish reading the thread and post some actual reads.
QED.
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Errr. WTF. How can Foolishness be town? This game is making no sense.
Reevaluating everything. Going to reevaluate Foolishness' reads.
Also, if Foolishness is town, Xfire is almost certainly scum. Pretty much his only saving grace was the nuke. But he had the nuke aimed at a townie, so disregard that.
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On March 16 2013 12:29 yamato77 wrote:
something about his role seems off
I'm going to look at this game again and see what I can gleam
Well, I see no reason to single Foolishness out of the daypost. There is nothing to distinguish him from the other flips. So either everybody is scum or nobody. I don't believe Foolishness is a death miller without any notification like we had with Cora.
(And for the slow-witted, everybody can't be scum because we would have too many scummers and this would be endgame. Not to mention scum used their KP to self-destruct).
Also, assuming Stutters is telling the truth (says nothing about the alignment of him or his sleeper cell, mind you. Presumably neither scum nor a 3rd party cell would mind killing Foolishness), there is still at least 1 KP too many.
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On March 16 2013 12:33 Vivax wrote:
Kill marv.
Currently just scum in the thread so ignore the case against stutters. He did something stupid but isnt scum unlike these other guys.
I probably agree with you on Stutters. Have to reevaluate Marv before doing anything of the kind. Him being alive might be because of DI.
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Also, either DP was being framed, Marv was bullshitting about doing a parity check, or DP is scum.
Vivax, you once again breadcrumbed stuff. Any results?
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On March 16 2013 12:42 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2013 12:40 Acrofales wrote:On March 16 2013 12:33 Vivax wrote:
Kill marv.
Currently just scum in the thread so ignore the case against stutters. He did something stupid but isnt scum unlike these other guys. I probably agree with you on Stutters. Have to reevaluate Marv before doing anything of the kind. Him being alive might be because of DI. That thing about DI is actually true. Marv being alive isn't doesn't actually look as bad as I thought it does. But you really need to read my case on stutters. It is actually good.
You have done something now. You've made a case on lynchbait. I will take you into account when I reevaluate everything, but my scumread on you had nothing to do with Foolishness. It's just that my scumreads were clearly completely wrong. Hell, it's making me think Cora is town and the death miller WAS in fact just the first 12 hours.
I am doubting everything right now.
Fuck. I'm gonna sleep on things.
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Okay. Some important announcements. The first of which is that Cora must have been town 
There were 5!!! NKs. If we accept that the Foolishness kill came from the sleeper cell, that still leaves 4 NKs, all on people who were unsuspected of being scum and thus terrible vigi targets. So either scum has 2 1-shot KP roles that they used last night, or there are still 5 scummers to give them 3 KP. I think one scum vigi seems like a decent assumption to make. Two is too much.
If a townie took a shot last night, they should CLAIM right now, otherwise I will assume Cora was town and base my reads on that.
The second is that I still think Marv is town, and his reads were terribly wrong. Then again, so were my own. So were Supersoft, Promethelax, StrongandBig and Iamperfection. These are all players whose opinion I respect. Them ALL being wrong about Foolishness says that Marv is not really to blame for having a bad bead on him.
Of course, part of the reason for having a scumread on Foolishness was because of the tunnel. However, the tunnel did two things: it made Foolishness look scummy and made Marv look townie. Think about it: if Marv is scum would he really spend his entire game tunneling a town Foolishness? From his past games I get the feeling that scum-Marv is a LOT more careful and uses NKs to take out dangerous townies. So this is uncharacteristic for his scum game. He comes out of the tunnel looking terrible: I think scum-Marv does one thing very well, which is to avoid looking terrible. Just look at Hero mafia. He is very careful about who and how he pushes.
So that put me on another new track: who tried to keep a low profile, and maybe even look good with the Foolishness lynch.
Those are the main associations I have for Foolishness. Everybody else acted like I would expect from them. A minor blip on my scumdar was Oats, who was all flipfloppy about Foolishness, but he ALWAYS acts erratic, and his scumtells aren't the fact that his reads ar all over the place, but his timidity. He is not playing timid this game.
Stutters: I do not trust your sleeper cell. Was anybody else recruited into a sleeper cell?
Other reads:
risk.nuke's inactivity is a meta scumtell. His reads have been absent, he has pushed nothing and he is doing nothing this game.
DarthPunk is still scum for all the reasons I said before. His Stutters case convinces me not at all and his push against Marv is unconvincing.
HiroPro: similar to risk.nuke, except I don't know his meta as well.
It is lylo. We absolutely need to pick a scum or we lose the game. I am surest about Xfire at the moment. He promises activity where there isn't any. Apologizes for being useless when he was purposefully roleplaying in order to BE useless and the only thing that made me think he was town has disappeared.
##vote Crossfire99
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On March 16 2013 23:56 marvellosity wrote:
Just to make it clear in 2 bullet points
- yesterday DP read the posts on Foolish and found them so convincing that it was so easy to vote for him
- today he finds them as enlightening as a quagmire
No.
I am not very convinced by this. DP got pointed to the most relevant posts, read them and was convinced that Foolishness was scum. He then read the rest of the thread, which has a LOT of shit between you and Vivax concerning Foolishness' alignment. He knows Foolishness is town, and has to use the posts not to determine Foolishness' alignment, but yours. I don't know that I would put it as bluntly, but it took me quite a bit of reading and thinking about the game to realize that you were probably just wrong, not scum for relentlessly pushing Foolishness.
However, I don't like his defense: this above was what came to my mind immediately when reading the attack and I dismissed it. But as defense he brings up the check: if his entire reason for thinking Foolishness was scum was the CHECK, why bother mentioning the posts in the first place? He thought the parity check was truthful, and claims his own PM as evidence that this means Foolishness was scum. Why bother mentioning the posts? It seems like a post-hoc scramble to make sense of his actions.
So yeah, I think DP is scum. What do you think of Xfire?
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On March 17 2013 01:36 prplhz wrote:
yes you have, a roleclaim will make me reconsider. do you have any reason not to roleclaim?
Why? What about Marv's roleclaim is going to make you reconsider?
Actually there is one thing: Marv claimed he was protecting DI, yet DI ended up dead. Either someone shot Marv despite it being completely obvious DI had some form of protection on him (and scum therefore guessed correctly about exactly how DI's role worked), DI was doublestacked and there were 6!!! shots fired last night, or DI was not protected.
Marv, can you explain what you did last night?
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On March 17 2013 01:47 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 01:46 Acrofales wrote:On March 17 2013 01:36 prplhz wrote:
yes you have, a roleclaim will make me reconsider. do you have any reason not to roleclaim? Why? What about Marv's roleclaim is going to make you reconsider? Actually there is one thing: Marv claimed he was protecting DI, yet DI ended up dead. Either someone shot Marv despite it being completely obvious DI had some form of protection on him (and scum therefore guessed correctly about exactly how DI's role worked), DI was doublestacked and there were 6!!! shots fired last night, or DI was not protected. Marv, can you explain what you did last night? why wouldn't i reconsider in face of new information?
Because Marv's roleclaim is already 90% in the thread. He's VE the pre-announcing JOAT.
If he's mafia do you really think he can't invent some believable actions for his JOAT role so the claimed actions make sense?
I really don't see what a roleclaim will help. However, I DO want to hear what happened with Marv's save of DI and why Marv thinks DI died despite his claim.
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On March 17 2013 01:49 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 01:46 Acrofales wrote:On March 17 2013 01:36 prplhz wrote:
yes you have, a roleclaim will make me reconsider. do you have any reason not to roleclaim? Why? What about Marv's roleclaim is going to make you reconsider? Actually there is one thing: Marv claimed he was protecting DI, yet DI ended up dead. Either someone shot Marv despite it being completely obvious DI had some form of protection on him (and scum therefore guessed correctly about exactly how DI's role worked), DI was doublestacked and there were 6!!! shots fired last night, or DI was not protected. Marv, can you explain what you did last night? yes. I got distracted by Fool's flip. I was roleblocked. What you see in the thread is what you get. There is literally no way for me to change my night action other than posting in the thread.
Why claim roleblocked so late :S
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I guess it's believable. Scum doesn't know how DI's protection works. They want Marv dead. Marv claims to protect DI, so they roleblock him and kill DI.
Scum-Marv *could* kill DI just to make it look like this is what happened: it is entirely clear that if DI HADN'T died, then my D3 policy-lynch of Marv would have come roaring into action.
Eh. I think I'm being paranoid. Marv isn't playing like scum. He was just as wrong as me and a whole list of confirmed townies about Foolishness.
Lets kill Xfire. It's lylo and there are 5 scums left. Plenty of time to lynch Marv if he is left alive. Lets get the low-hanging fruit first. Lynch Xfire now.
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On March 17 2013 02:05 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 01:57 Acrofales wrote:
I guess it's believable. Scum doesn't know how DI's protection works. They want Marv dead. Marv claims to protect DI, so they roleblock him and kill DI.
Scum-Marv *could* kill DI just to make it look like this is what happened: it is entirely clear that if DI HADN'T died, then my D3 policy-lynch of Marv would have come roaring into action.
Eh. I think I'm being paranoid. Marv isn't playing like scum. He was just as wrong as me and a whole list of confirmed townies about Foolishness.
Lets kill Xfire. It's lylo and there are 5 scums left. Plenty of time to lynch Marv if he is left alive. Lets get the low-hanging fruit first. Lynch Xfire now. In all seriousness, we kill Crossfire (or DP) today, they flip mafia, it's still lylo tomorrow and i'm left alive. What then?
Lets face it. If you're town, you'll be dead tomorrow. If you're not, then we worry about it tomorrow. You realize that the longer you're left alive, the more likely it is that you're scum? Especially if you actually start catching scum rather than tunneling Foolishness.
To a lesser extent, the same goes for austin and me. I don't really expect to be alive tomorrow myself. In fact, I am wondering why Iamp was killed over austin or me. Neither of us seemed particularly likely to get protection. Maybe Iamp was onto something? SnB, DI and Promethelax all make sense. But Iamp is a bit odd, imho.
I just checked his filter and the last 3 pages have nothing that stands out. Maybe his town read on Marv? I said I would policy-lynch Marv D3. Maybe scum wants Marv lynched today? Or maybe DP is town and my main scumspect at night was DP (after Foolishness). They only need one mislynch, so if DP is town, killing Iamp for not being clearly in the lynch DP camp? I dunno. I hate speculating about NKs. It is almost always pointless and requires all kinds of assumptions about the scum mindset.
Anyway, long story short: today we catch scum. Tomorrow we worry again about whether you could be scum if you are alive. Do you expect to be?
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Also, let me check austin's filter and see if he really is as townie as I think. Fuck. Foolishness being green is making me doubt ALL my reads.
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On March 17 2013 12:24 yamato77 wrote:
I haven't filtered him yet, to be honest. But he's lurky as fuck and not an influence in the thread, while Marv is.
You cut the head off the snake. Lynch the active scum.
If this was D2, I would agree. But it's not. We NEED to lynch scum today. Xfire is a FAR safer bet than Marv. In fact, other than the fact that he is still alive and was wrong about Foolishness I don't really see much reason for a scum Marv at all. I tunneled him excessively in MTG2 and the way you are now forming arguments seems similar to the way I was then. I have learned a lesson: you need to consider the bigger picture with Marv... and at the moment he is simply too active and too involved.
You say he hasn't pushed cases, but he pushed Foolishness from the second he suspected Foolish was scum. So then you accuse him of tunneling Foolish, but he spent time analysing Cora, and has made some analyses of other people. *Could* Marv be scum? Yes. But he is far from the most obvious scum, and we need to lynch a sure thing today: we lynch Xfire.
As for Marv being scum? If I had to pick the scumteam right now, it would be Xfire, DP, risk.nuke and 2 out of Marv, HiroPro, Yamato and Mocsta.
Foolishness was completely convinced Yamato was scum. While I am not completely convinced, I am definitely no longer convinced Yamato is town. That puts him back in the grey area. If Marv continues to not-die, then we kill him. But it is ridiculous to lynch Marv now when there are 5 scum alive and Xfire is completely obviously scum.
As for anybody still claiming Cora is scum: I don't think so. It just doesn't make sense with the night KP, and 2 scum vigis seems too much.
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EPT
