EPTGotta go to work now. saw Glurio was on 7 votes, I gave him the hammer vote (8 for majority)
be back at deadline.
TL Mafia LX - Page 27
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
Gotta go to work now. saw Glurio was on 7 votes, I gave him the hammer vote (8 for majority) be back at deadline. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
I still prefer a WoS lynch. His town read on glurio is based on happenings that occurred way after he declared him as town and refused to extrapolate. None to fuck all is based on the past. Consolidation is important and too late to lead a votr swap, so will stay on glurio. Also for next day cycle. I can work with a vivax lynch, and not just cos its sandroba. Vivax story doesn't add up fully, and he is the common element intertwining the vig claims, ribs and nks. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 08 2013 08:21 The Macho Man wrote: yeah im not getting panicked from wos im getting clueless which is townie. Wrong Clueless suggests lack of conviction and willingness to sheep. If u read lack of conviction in his defends, u might need to set windows language setting back to English... | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 08 2013 12:22 Aquanim wrote: @JungleJorge Apologies, I may be quite bad at this game  One question: Night two, scum *withholds* KP to frame up me or whoever they thought you'd roleblock for the lack of KP, town vig Vivax shoots RO. Why is this implausible? It is a plausible possibility; however, the likelihood in my opinion is: remote ======================= @ALL To summarise what we know: Night 1: Scum 2KP & 2 NK JJ -> RB'd -> Toad ?? -> RB'd -> Vivax Night 2: Scum 1KP & 1 NK Vivax -> Vig -> RO ?? -> RB'd -> Aquanim JJ -> No submit (layabout) Night 3: Scum 1KP & 1 NK ?? -> RB'd -> JJ (1) The # kills rules out mutant. (This can be explained if you don't see it.. but consider Night 1 as a tell for no mutant and compare to Night 3.... ) (2) If we assume Vivax = town vig & scum found his "breadcrumbs" D1 to RB him Then Night 2, he *SHOULD* have been roleblocked OR shot. Why would scum leave an unpredictable town vig to take a free shot? Further, lets go with the theory that scum left town vig alone N2... SURELY they had to do something with JJ a confirmed town for many.... instead they RB Aquanim & there is no kill??? I have already proven there is no mutant.. so where did the scum kill go? This story isn't selling.. scum don't take these type of risks.. their goal is to survive, and plays like that work off variables they do not have control over. Vivax can not be town or 3rd party. (3) If we assume Vivax = scum The KP to NK ratio makes sense; and also correlates with the action of leaving Vivax to his own devices to "vig" Now also consider that RO was not contributing much; and people like myrself/JJ/Macho were considering him scummy. I can easily see an opportunistic Vivax making this play to gain town cred and satisfy the vig claim. - An action that has precedent behind it (from Vivax). If that is not enough: JJ has alreayd done a good job outlining the mentality differences of a vig; and someone pretending to be a vig. So again, the story of a town-Vivax doesn't add up. But it comes back down to: I have already proven there is no mutant.. so where did the kill go? It went to RO with Vivax "vig" claim  (4) Where does this leave Aquanim? When Vivax flips red, I would consider insta-lynching Aquanim. With the context above, the RB (on Aqua vs JJ/Vivax) makes no sense; but Aqua continual urge to justify the RB makes me feel uneasy. If I was town, I would have no idea why I was RB'd.. and would leave it alone as it is all WIFOM.. Aqua instead continues to flesh this out (e.g. the post I am responding to). Conclusion Day5.. majority vote Vivax Day6.. majority vote Aquanim | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 08 2013 17:20 Mocsta wrote: Lol, save the defense for Day 6. Day 5 = Vivax Unless you want to dispute the logic above.. I think its quite conclusive on him. For posterity in filter | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
I proved mutant does not exist. Each no was the same as scum kp.... This doesn't rule out bartender though Perhaps that explains the apathy u see in people like test subject. Still best course of action is to lynch vivax next cycle. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
 I thought at least one person might try to contest my logic on Vivax. OK, we will have a majority vote Day 5. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
It all comes down to THERE IS NO MUTANT Hence, where did the scum KP go if Vivax is town vig? There was no veteran or medic; otherwise someone would have said something. And we know there was no JK save. Hence, why would scum WITHHOLD KP, when 2 men down to fake an SK (when its easily proven there is no SK).. thats just too stupid and I have to give Vivax and co. more credit than being stupid. Fact: Night 2.. there was 1 kill only. How can anyone say that scum witheld KP, AND RB'd Aquanim AND let a town vig shoot (especially Vivax who you can't predict his town night actions) That chain of events, is so unlikely and remote, I dare say it is impossible. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:26 WaveofShadow wrote: Well yall know where MY vote is tomorrow. Though the Mocsta-logic-train is chuggin' along. I have to re-read that. No.. I dont know.. please share | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If scum didn't send in their night actions properly (seems highly unlikely oatsmaster wouldn't have told them directly in the scum qt/irc) how would aqua not realize that and still claim RB? are you positive it's impossible that scum missed their shot? Exactly.. scum submitted RB.. which menas they submitted NK... So its a choice of whether they withheld or made the kill Withehld is just too unlikely ##Vote: Vivax Get the majority going. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:28 WaveofShadow wrote: Really? 'Cause I've been talking about him being scum all game. I guess to be fair it's been a while since anything happened in here. Soniv. Baby.. I would hold off jcarlsoniv I got something that will give you a GUARANTEED vote for Day5 and Day6. Gimme 10 minutes. Trust me.. *you* of all people will love this one. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:33 TestSubject893 wrote: They could have forgotten to submit their actions to oatmaster, just like JJ did.... How? They submitted RB dude.... thats clear unless you think the RB claim from aquanim is a charade for forgetting to submit actions... | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:34 TestSubject893 wrote: Or its a fake claim and there was no RB. Lynch aqua. At least we agree it comes down to 2 scenarios Case A: Scum fake Vig-Hit Case B: Scum withhold NK Do you really think there is a 50/50 of this occurring? I suggest you read the scum QT from NMM37. I came up with the idea of withholding NK and pretending to be a veteran who got shot. My coach: VE said IMMEDIATELY, dont do it.. its stupid Mafia is a numbers game.. you need to remove town as often as possible, its not worth the gamble. So again... do you honestly think Case B >>> Case A? & Consider.. case A gives them the NK they need + gives vivax the town cred (which is why you so hard defending him) | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Did JJ forget to send in his roleblock? What happened to that? Because if he jailed the person mafia hit that would actually explain everything. JJ confirmed it didnt go through (was on layabout) From http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=399294¤tpage=202#4039 On March 08 2013 13:48 MilkSuckler wrote: ======================= @ALL To summarise what we know: Night 1: Scum 2KP & 2 NK JJ -> RB'd -> Toad ?? -> RB'd -> Vivax Night 2: Scum 1KP & 1 NK Vivax -> Vig -> RO ?? -> RB'd -> Aquanim JJ -> No submit (layabout) Night 3: Scum 1KP & 1 NK ?? -> RB'd -> JJ | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
(Prome / Chezinu / Restraining Order) & decided to cross reference with Vivax (who is guaranteed to flip scum) (1) Prome + Show Spoiler [Oddities] + WaveofShadow On February 26 2013 09:57 Promethelax wrote: For the moment my top scum read is WoS, he responded to gerpit's candidacy all wrong, obviously assuming gerpit is town but statistically... I'm not a fan of this post or WoS's mentality. Vote me, screw random lynch. I'll lynch WoS. And then 180 shifts to ---> On February 26 2013 11:53 Promethelax wrote: WoS super townie lets make him the pardoner. On February 26 2013 12:06 Promethelax wrote: I would say grush is mod confirmed townie at this point, we should make him or WoS pardoner. On February 26 2013 12:21 Promethelax wrote: <To VE: regarding scum read on WoS> it's goner than gone.i thought I made that clear? & for shits and giggles On February 26 2013 12:04 Promethelax wrote: <To WaveofShadow> I don't want you mayor, even though I'd bet a nut you are town I wouldn't bet a single hair of my beard on you making the right choices. I've been burned by newbie townies before (YAN). If you are elected pardoner do not pardon anyone. Ever. Vivax On February 26 2013 09:59 VisceraEyes wrote: Prom that's closer to what I'm looking for. Why do you prefer to lynch WoS over Vivax? On February 26 2013 10:07 Promethelax wrote: Because I don't care to lynch Vivax. I know I'm the only guy on the forum who thinks this but Vivax is a good player and useful to town when town. Also, as Marv showed in fruity, he is catchable as scum on meta alone. Tl:dr I have a scum read on WoS and not on Vivax. Aquanim On February 26 2013 10:48 Promethelax wrote: <To Wave of Shadow> Are you being serious or sarcastic about aqua? Its funny. the 180' shift was used as a point to seal prome fate. But now we understand the cause and desire for his 180'.. it was to set the play for WoS to become pardoner (2) Chezinu + Show Spoiler [oddities] + WaveofShadow On February 28 2013 03:06 Chezinu wrote: Waveoftheshadow, who are you? This is WoS post, before Chezinu call-out On February 28 2013 02:56 VisceraEyes wrote: Did you read my explanation of that? Because I'm running for mayor, I'm using the lynch to try and pressure people for contribution. And in the case of OO it seems to have worked because he's tried to (from my perspective) feign contribution since. I'll admit that the more in agreement we all seem to be re: Prom, the more likely I am to lynch another of my reads - which is why I've been advocating DocH for mayor lately - but Toad specifically called it "waffling" twice...in a manner that seems to be specifically designed to anger me. He knows Mayoral strategy, he knows the power of the threat of lynch. For this reason, I think it was NOT supposed to be just an observation of my lynch preference, and WAS supposed to be discrediting me. On February 28 2013 03:00 WaveofShadow wrote: But see that's the issue...if Toad (like most of us) actually wants Prom lynched then despite the 'threat of lynch' he can't be sure if what you're saying is just pressure or whether you actually are going to change your mind. Even I can't tell now that you've said you're more likely to lynch someone else. Is it just for pressure or are you gonna flip things on us? WIFOM. If you're serious about not wanting to lynch Prom anymore you need to seriously let everyone know who is voting for you based on that premise. On February 28 2013 03:06 Chezinu wrote: Waveoftheshadow, who are you? This is interesting; when I first read this from WoS, i thought it was super town motivated. Because it gives a chance for town to consolidate on someone else willing to lynch prome. But scum have just as much incentive to know and control the mayor (for lynch vote) as well. Its interesting Chezinu feels the urge to create an interaction such as this. It actually reads to me as a subtle "in-joke".. indicative of knowledge us townies do not possess Then the famous WIFOM list post - I admit this is taking a leap of faith, so feel free to ignore. On March 02 2013 04:45 Chezinu wrote: Town Reads 2.grush57 he is a star 3. Vivax - he is one of the best town players, I said last game 9. The Macho Man 11. randombum He understands important matters 16. Wade Fell - liked him... then found out he was BH whom I used the Chez rule on in the past... Why he hates me 25. aquanim similar thoughts like me 8. jcarlsoniv - first made me think I was mafia before I checked my role cause he knew I didn't check my role... false alarm Null Reads 6. glurio - null 7. TestSubject893 - don't recall posts 10. Chaos Bear - not present 17. ObviousOne one of my summoners... no sure where he went 18. geript 21. Hassybaby - I cried mored 22. Restraining Order 24. layabout Scum Reads 12. WaveofShadow 15. MilkSuckler - don't like this guy 19. DoctorHelvetica can't seem to save anyone 20. JungleJorge I will re-evaluate this list based on the flips we know: On March 02 2013 04:45 Chezinu wrote: Town Reads 2.grush57he is a star 3. Vivax - he is one of the best town players, I said last game 9. The Macho Man 11. randombum He understands important matters 16. Wade Fell 25. aquanim - similar thoughts like me 8. jcarlsoniv - first made me think I was mafia before I checked my role cause he knew I didn't check my role... false alarm Null Reads 6. glurio 7. TestSubject893 - don't recall posts 10. Chaos Bear 17. ObviousOne one of my summoners... no sure where he went 18. geript 21. Hassybaby 22. Restraining Order 24. layabout Scum Reads 12. WaveofShadow 15. MilkSuckler - don't like this guy 19. DoctorHelvetica can't seem to save anyone 20. *JungleJorge *MilkSuckler Confirmed town (Essentially) Now you can call this WIFOM and disregard this entire section, but I think an easy and effective strategy in a WIFOM list post like this is to put a scum player in each category (town/null/scum) i.e. Town = Vivax Null = Restraining Order Scum = WaveofShadow.....<- See the link Look at his over reasoning for Vivax: "3. Vivax - he is one of the best town players, I said last game" - Ties in nicely with Prome read of Vivax  *Bye-Bye Vivax* The comment on Grush "is a star" I think is more a pun on "STARSENSES" then giving a false town read. In regards to aquanim: Chezinu tries to create association by "similar thoughts like me"... this ties in interestingly with Promes (serious/sarcastic over awareness for Aquanim) (3) Restraining Order + Show Spoiler [oddities] + WaveofShadow I already outlined RO associations with WoS here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=399294¤tpage=189#3769 All revolves around giving him pardoner role (Conveniently prome wants the same outcome) Vivax On February 28 2013 21:31 Restraining Order wrote: Bottom line, vigs should shoot JJ or Vivax, tomorrow we lynch the other. I doubt the last few pages changed that. RO comments on fuck all, but it is important enough for him to suggest vigs shot Vivax? Reads to me as scum sussing out whether town vig is in the game..... (4) Vivax Based on logic, Vivax can only be scum (i.e. no SK; and his "vig claim" was the only NK for N2. Further, no town claimed medic/veteran save, and JK role didnt activate that night.... he can only be scum) + Show Spoiler [oddities] + Vivax says it all in his big ramble of a list post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=399294¤tpage=45#896 These are the important parts from the Wall of Text On February 27 2013 00:27 Vivax wrote: Purely based on these early game interactions I've become wary of restraining order/marv given his early dead serious tone despite the comparatively low interest into the mayor candidates. He subtly shovelled shit at MS for that awesome post and fucked off ignoring most of the early opinions. However, given his later contributions to the pardoner talk, dissuading town from following Toad's terrible plan, my read switched back to a more townie one, especially when he suggested that WoS should be elected, which I agree with. I am curious to see what else he will contribute. This guy slams RO (who is known to be scum) and then retreats on the read as null. Why? Because he wants WoS elected as pardoner. aquanim I have a slight scumread on, his early contributions consist of asking MS a pointless question and then saying there's a voting thread. He likes to pick on people like WoS and OO, who I have townreads on and are at best guilty of lighthearted and at worst clumsy play. Most of his filter looks much artificial, his answers to reads look forced. I advise you to analyse him properly and I will support a mayor willing to lynch him. Why is aquanim scum? because "he likes to pick on people like WoS" Note, Vivax does not back off his aquanim read (unlike RO...) Prom. There's a lot to work on with him. What bothers me about Prom is his unusual lack of confidence. He came dead serious into the thread with his RNG lynch idea, but didn't actually RNG anyone at that point, and even said he would lynch himself, which is a retarded thing to do when you know you're town. When people criticized him for his behaviour regarding the RNG, he quickly switched to a WoS lynch preference. Then he votes VE, who wants to lynch him. Again, a point towards scumprom, who would probably not want to get lynched as town, it looks like a subtle buddying attempt. Then again, it confuses me that he's been interacting in a way with VE that suggests that he would rethink his townread on me if just VE convinced him. That was after VE said he thinks I'm scum based on association with Prom (stupid reason). Trying to see this from a scumprom perspective, this doesn't make sense to me. A scumprom would probably try to convince VE that there is an association and that he's null or town on me to frame me for later. Instead he expressed being content with changing his read on me if VE convinced him. I am null on Prom given how he's been handling his reads of me. Massive wall of text, to say, scummy, and then back down on his read and say null. Classic scum tactics to write a massive wall, start off why he is scum; and then finish off with a "null" Vivax from this post alone is proven to be scum. Vivax from his interactions with the scum team (as identified above) is proven to be scum Vivax from logic regarding NK and lack of Mutant is proven to be scum. Vote Vivax Day 5. In short: Vivax is scum.. this is proven by Night Action logic: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=399294¤tpage=202#4039 this is proven by interactions from his scum team (in particular prome hard-meta defense & RO Vig information digging) & is proven by his D1 list post.. which satisfies all requirements of scum agenda. Day 5: LYNCH VIVAX From associations. it is now clear WaveofShadow is scum I identified RO clearly supporting WoS for pardoner (a role only scum want) But now consider.. prome was pushing the same agenda as RO (and resulted in his 180 read shifts) Now consider.. chezinu peculiar interaction with WoS (regarding Prome lynch) Consider.. Vivax supporting RO because he supports WoS for pardoner ========= Since when do the entire scum team have such agreement on an outcome? The fact is.. they don't and shouldn't.. But what are they actually agreeing over? Its about WoS becoming pardoner. The role beneficial for scum. It is CLEAR that scum made a play for WoS to become pardoner, and tried to support him throughout Day1. In reality he was a safe choice.. no one knew him, and as a newbie you dont expect him to make a play like that (but keep in mind he has the scum QT to produce posts for him) Even if you want to discount Vivax information (as he hasnt flipped yet).. the associations from prome/chez/RO are enough to seal WoS fate. Vivax is simply icing on the cake. Day6: LYNCH WoS ========= | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:57 grush57 wrote: wow you totally got him Is that sarcasm? | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 07:58 DoctorHelvetica wrote: What's enough for me is that Vivax's day 1 reads were based on wifom speculation (that whole prom thing) and in the game I just played with him where he was town he was very direct with his pressure/thoughts, keeping things out of that nebulous speculation area Vivax is scum based on NK action logic. WoS is scum based on scum agenda. (and the point of my whole post I just made) His attempt to immediately discredit the findings was quite humerous actually. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 08:02 WaveofShadow wrote: Honestly, that case is so ridiculous it doesn't even worry me in the slightest. I worried myself more WIFOMing the hell out of myself with the Geript lynch than I'm worried about this. If I'm going to get lynched, then go ahead and do it, so long as you honour my death once you find out I'm town and kill Soniv. As long as I am alive. you will get lynched for that association. Scum do no unanimously support someone the way they did with you.. the goal was important enough to warrant it. Supplement this with your wishy-washy game of playing hard to get with dishing out reads; and its pretty clear your #5 on the scum list. Supplement this with your /golfclap post and again its pretty clear you are #5 on the scum list. Vivax first though baby. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 09 2013 08:05 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I don't see how Vivax's logic in that post proves he is scum, you failed to demonstrate scum motivation only associations. Let me look back through my filter to find out what I was thinking when I was actually caring about this game. oh. I didn't touch on Vivax mentality because it was done to death by yourself and JJ already. No point beating the same drum (and others in the thread weren't buying it). So I took the association method to communicate the same message. We agree which is good.. Lynch Vivax, the instant Day5 passes through. | ||
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