EPTNormal Mini Mafia IV - Page 2
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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Promethelax
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I'm leaving for work in like 35 minutes. I want the game to start first! C'mon Toad, I believe. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On January 26 2013 08:45 Vivax wrote: I didn't receive a role either. So you can put your vote back. lol, too defensive man. ## Vote: Vivax way to make it obvious. | ||
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Along with that we will kill lurkers and liars, I'm done with towns where those things are acceptable. I would like confirmation from those players who are here on this. People who play anti-town will also be lynched. We must make it so that townies cannot play in a scummy way, it is time for town to win a mini. We believe in capital punishment in this town. xsksc: tell me about yourself. What are your strengths and what are your weaknesses? | ||
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Promethelax
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Imp: I'm not scum. Try again. Millers, listen to vivax. | ||
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VE, c'mon man. Get on in here. | ||
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Promethelax
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On January 26 2013 09:18 Vivax wrote: That's good news! Marv is on town's side! Too quick to believe marv. Miller in c9++ is in 40% of games. Look at the bugs/palmar argument in YAN. There is a good reason for scum to claim miller too. ##Vote: Vivax | ||
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Promethelax
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On January 26 2013 09:26 thrawn2112 wrote: i'd like all non self aware millers to claim lol. (x: its in reference to a recent game. Now answer my questions) its early marv, better than anything else so far. Out to work, see you guys in 10 hours or so. | ||
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Masons: do not counter claim Marv. A miller is just as likely if we have masons or not. Djo, the fuck are you thinking? | ||
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On January 26 2013 09:23 xsksc wrote: Alright. I'd appreciate if you do the same for me, you're one of the players in this game I'm not familiar with. My reads are usually pretty good, I've never been lynched and I'd like to think people can identify my town play easily enough. My weakness would probably be not pushing my reads hard enough/getting people on-board with me. It's 2 lines long, I'm not sure what world that would qualify as lengthy in... Iamperfection said Proms post was scummy, I said I don't see a scum motive behind it, pointless post =/= scum post. Fairly simple. Replying to this before I forget, at one time I thought my strength lay in being obviously townie and not in scum hunting. Over my last few games I think that has been shifting. I have been mislynched twice in a row and caught scum twice I. A row (we are ignoring lviii). I can pretty well assure you that Marv and probably Hapa will be able to read me as town. As to the other players in this game, most know me and have played with me before but I'm less sure that they'll be able to read me well. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:20 iamperfection wrote: your vote on vivax serious prom? As serious as it can be this early. That is still the scummiest thing in the thread. | ||
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On January 26 2013 11:27 Djodref wrote: lol, do you really want me to start to speculate about the setup ? The bolded part in your post is just plain wrong. In a classic C9++ game, the probability to have a mason pair and a miller is of 2.3%. I did the math here in the pregame. So, yeah, you can "soft" counter-claim a miller claim with a mason claim. + Show Spoiler [BEWARE, math incoming] + On January 24 2013 02:13 Djodref wrote: Two millers are usually not possible, and you have one miller when you have exactly one M or exactly 3 Ms in the setup. So, let's compute the probability to have exactly one M in the 7 letters defining the setup. M has a probability of 1/10 to be rolled. Let's have X for any letter not being M, and X has a probability of 9/10 to be rolled. MXXXXXX XMXXXXX XXMXXXX XXXMXXX Here you have all the setups with exactly one mason, each of them with a probability of (9/10)^6*(1/10) XXXXMXX XXXXXMX XXXXXXM There are 7 such setups like this. The final probability to have exactly one M is 7*(9/10)^6*(1/10)=0.3720087 The probability is so roughly of 37% So then you should add the probability to have exactly 3 Ms in the 7 letters defining the setup. You have (7*6*5)/(3*2) arrangements of 3 Ms into the 7 letters, that is 35 arrangements. Each arrangement has a probability of (9/10)^4*(1/10)^3 so the probability to have exactly 3 Ms is roughly of 2.3% ?? That should make a ~39.5% probability to have a miller in the classic C9++ setup I guess. But listen, probability of the set up existing are not the same as ability to counter claim. It's about math (statistics) and I don't really want to get into it but you are just as likely to have a miller in a set up with or without masons. | ||
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Work still slow: I expect you and Marv to know I am town. If you are town because you read me right and if scum because you won't be dumb enough to read me wrong. Doesn't matter if you are town or scum I expect both of you to, within the first few days (if we are all alive) to be treating me like confirmed town. Xsksc: look at lviii for a game where everyone had Vivax as a super town read even though he was scum. Don't be too sure of yourself based on his spotlight love. You know those Italians, they love attention (is that a real stereotype or did I just make it up?) | ||
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Hapa, I figured you were good enough to figure it out, the only times you've called me scum when we were both town was in newbies. In chrono you and I omgus'd a lot but I don't feel like you ever seriously thought I was scum. Lets just say that I'm confident that you know me well enough to figure it out. You said yourself you'd never have voted me I. Our most recent game if you were town. Djo, who are you actually suspicious of? Or is this weird stuff with xsksc actually you thinking he is scummy? Thrawn, I want to hear more from you. You and Marv have both been oddly quiet, Marv I want more from you too. | ||
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