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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:27 iamperfection wrote: He is not moc and yamato are but they have claims and checks show me what setup we are in djo Riddle me this. (in general) What is a stronger heuristic for you (for a scum read) The miller claim or the dt green check | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:19 Mocsta wrote: its mocsta. Why is Djo not SK? dont just make a rhetoric, add fact and logic. He was obviously paying a lot of attention to the game, making his reads, making sure town do the right thing, etc. If he's SK he's playing well However I cannot say the same for Djo as I did with Vivax because Djo does play well, but I'm sticking to my current read until things change. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:28 Mocsta wrote: hmm im not that satisfied with the answer, but in hindsight the question was worded too loosely, so thats my own fault. As for Yamato, I dont have a problem with his lynch, I already stated that. My problem with JX and the reason the vote went his way is due to his thought process. Its inconceivable someone that has been involved in this game from Day Dot could be having the sentiments he is sharing. I just came into the game and feel like I know more about the status quo of the game than JX. Now JX is not a stupid guy; he is friends with Toad, and I doubt Toad would suffer fools. So if JX is not stupid; but is clearly demonstrating faulty logic regarding basics (and so late into the game) I think its safe to conclude he doesnt actually care about the game.. isnt this scum motivation? Tie this in with him rarely having strong opinions throughout the whole game, and barely making cases/reads throughout the whole game; and again, a consistent lack of not caring. I think this makes him a pretty strong scum read (as opposed to my previous leaning); the thing yamato has in my mind that takes precedent over JX is his shitting up the Day 2 lynch. I still want an answer to what he was expecting to achieve if it was town motivated. But for now, im content with the vote on JX. I really hate to hurt my pride mochsta but I've been in 3 townie games Twice I made it to the end Once I was shot D1 and everyone was saying that it was a stupid shot. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:24 Vivax wrote: Yeah sure. Successfully fakeclaims miller to rush in before jay gets lynched and tells town that jay isn't scum cause he has a life and we don't. Come on Djo What else did he say ? He only said that Sharrant was scum ! Did yamato say anything new since Sharrant flipped town ? Absolutely nothing. Yamato has only commented about Sharrant in this game. And look at this particular syntax. This sentences in bold font show that yamato knew the alignment of the players before the flips. On January 28 2013 06:05 yamato77 wrote: Hm. Unless I think Thrawn is town this makes no sense for VE being mafia. I'll take another look at you after the flip, VE, but for now you're off the hook. ##Unvote ##Vote: Thrawn So Yamato was having VE as scum but suddenly VE is not scum because he votes for thrawn that yamato think is scum, but less than VE, because he was voting for VE and not thrawn. Tell me what you think about this post. On January 31 2013 07:35 yamato77 wrote: His focus today has been almost solely on Jay, which is rather scummy if I think jay is town, which I do. Jay is an extremely easy target to go after as mafia. But incidentally, a lot of town has the same opinion of jay despite knowing this fact, so I can almost let that slide. My main problem with him is how wordy and empty his posts are. He's like the antithesis of me. I'm all short and sweet and he's drawn out and boring. His most meaningful contributions this cycle have been his read on jay, but aside from that he's done little to rectify the bad logic he was using to justify his mafia read on VE N1. That same read is also why I think Djo's claim was at least partly a lie, because his continued insistence that VE was a valid target for his shot even after giving out a town read on me for defending VE makes very little sense. Sharrant, for these reasons, is a better lynch than a jay who is matching his town meta and not his scum one. Just replace "if I think jay is town" by "if you consider that jay is town" and the sentence makes much more sense. This is a scumslip. Yamato knew jay was town, and was painting Sharrant in red color for his wring read. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:31 JieXian wrote: He was obviously paying a lot of attention to the game, making his reads, making sure town do the right thing, etc. If he's SK he's playing well However I cannot say the same for Djo as I did with Vivax because Djo does play well, but I'm sticking to my current read until things change. On February 02 2013 00:02 JieXian wrote: I stopped Djo from shooting my null and town reads. Djo's targets are dead and they all flipped town. ??? So your idea of town doing the right thing is... having targets flip town? | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:30 Mocsta wrote: Riddle me this. (in general) What is a stronger heuristic for you (for a scum read) The miller claim or the dt green check green check probably less out for a bit | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:33 JieXian wrote: I really hate to hurt my pride mochsta but I've been in 3 townie games Twice I made it to the end Once I was shot D1 and everyone was saying that it was a stupid shot. well, i dont think your stupid; regardless, your comment above does not account for the lack of "passion" in your thread. May I ask why iamp is your most confirmed town read? Is this your sole reason? On January 30 2013 19:23 JieXian wrote: Iamp, looks like town to me, I've never played with him before but he also posts the same way in Cheesecake, lots of 1-2 liners. What stand out is his tunnel on thrawn D1 followed by this post He's not even trying to claim townie credits were he scum, for bussing thrawn. Or has your read developed further as the game progressed? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:27 iamperfection wrote: He is not moc and yamato are but they have claims and checks show me what setup we are in djo My problem is that I don't know how much V it takes to have two vigs in Toad's setup. It's either two or three, but with the classic setup, with two Vs, you have a single multi-shot vig, and three Vs, you have a multi-shot and a single-shot vig. I don't know if we have a godfather or not. And I don't know if we have a SK or not as well. We also could have a medic. The one thing I'm sure about is that we don't have a godfather AND a SK. Because we lack of blues (too many VT flips already) for this case. The thing I would like to have is VVCTTTT, no GF, no SK, and two Vs for two single-shot vigs. But it means that either you or JX is scum with yamato. I'm really more comfortable to lynch yamato today. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:47 Djodref wrote: My problem is that I don't know how much V it takes to have two vigs in Toad's setup. It's either two or three, but with the classic setup, with two Vs, you have a single multi-shot vig, and three Vs, you have a multi-shot and a single-shot vig. I don't know if we have a godfather or not. And I don't know if we have a SK or not as well. We also could have a medic. The one thing I'm sure about is that we don't have a godfather AND a SK. Because we lack of blues (too many VT flips already) for this case. The thing I would like to have is VVCTTTT, no GF, no SK, and two Vs for two single-shot vigs. But it means that either you or JX is scum with yamato. I'm really more comfortable to lynch yamato today. What happens when you add yamato's claim? | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:18 Mocsta wrote: hmm the *only* problem I have with Vivax is an issue EZ rose before being killed. Why would scum kill EZ instead of DT? *This same problem just arose its head in Mafia LIX as well* Do I need to give you the step by step of why his claim could only have come from a one-shot dt? I'm quite willing to do so but I thought you weren't an idiot so I bet you can figure it out. I mentioned it to Bugs in passing and tried not to make it too obvious but assuming Vivax is not retarded (which he really isn't, he is over confident but that is his only problem) his claim could not have come from a multi-shot dt. Assuming scum team is not retarded they noticed the same things I noticed. The way things stand: Djo VIG/SK (impossible to be scum) Me Vig (impossible to be scum) Imp IC or playing the game of his life as scum Vivax dt slips Mocsta VT/GF Yamato Miller/Goon JX ain't got shit we should be able to win by lynching down the line of Yam>JX>Mocsta the only way we lose really is if djo is SK and we kinda just have to hope on this one. We have two lynches left or three if we hit at least one scum in the first two. We need to lynch Yamato. I was waffling on my shot last night between Yam and Shar. Super had Yam as his highest scum read. The last minute Yam push on the day Jay got lynched should have happened. yamato is scum. I've tried to get him to fight with me a lot this game going so far as to actually say "you wanna fight?" and his has been diplomatic and shitty. He hasn't contributed to town anything where he usually does something he thinks is useful. Here he hasn't even done that. Its time to forget the unverified claims and lynch the guys who are scummiest for their behaviour. ##Vote: yamato | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
The question was in general. I believe at the start of the thread, it was discussed miller is about 40% likely. Hence, false miller claim can be countered about 60% of the time? Correct? If you think green check is worth less than miller claim, you think the likelihood of a green check being scum (in general), would be >>60% of the time? Correct? As in....you think that the chance of GF being in the game is greater than 60%?? & By corollay: if Miller is present, all green DT checks are essentially moot (as worth less than the miller claim) So if Vivax checked you, and you were green.. we could all state on your heuristic you are the Godfather If we extend this to my situation. If you are going to sit here and continue to accuse me of being the godfather, go ahead and make a case. Regardless of xsksc inactivity (which he explained in full), judge me by my content - I have been contributing enough this cycle for a read IMHO. If you dont think I have been open and transparent; if you dont think I have been trying to spark conversation; if you dont think I am scum hunting with logic; log your vote my way, but dont forget to build that case. Otherwise, accept I am a VT; and continue the scum hunt. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:50 iamperfection wrote: What happens when you add yamato's claim? I don't believe marv's and yamato's claim anymore. I want to judge everybody on their play without considering the check and the claims. I understand when you are coming from though. But I'm sure that either yamato is not miller, either mocsta is GF, either they are the scumteam. I'm 95% sure that the two remaining scum are among yamato, Mocsta, JX and you. And JX and you really look town compared to them, so I'm 90% sure there is something fucked up in the claim or in the check. Of course, I don't appreciate to lynch a played with an uncontested miller claim. But he has to be scum by elimination, and there is evidence against him. Please add onto this that EZ wanted him dead, and EZ is now dead. What do you think about yamato's slips ? I don't remember him using this kind of syntax in his town games. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
if we're at VVMC (which I doubt) we'd theoretically have TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer but if we have a serial killer we're only at VMC which has TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker in all likelyhood this set-up is VVC vs. TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker so final set-up would be 2 one shot vigs 1 one shot cop 7 VTs vs 2 goons 1RB which means Moc is confirmed town if yamato flips scum. We obviously have no doc because anyone not protecting EZ last night is a fucking retard. EZ was the only scum shot in this town and he/they were obvious townies. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 02 2013 02:01 Promethelax wrote: I've been working under the assumption that one V us a single shot vig here and VV is two single shot viggies. if we're at VVMC (which I doubt) we'd theoretically have TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer but if we have a serial killer we're only at VMC which has TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker in all likelyhood this set-up is VVC vs. TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker so final set-up would be 2 one shot vigs 1 one shot cop 7 VTs vs 2 goons 1RB which means Moc is confirmed town if yamato flips scum. We obviously have no doc because anyone not protecting EZ last night is a fucking retard. EZ was the only scum shot in this town and he/they were obvious townies. Thats why your the coach. This make pretty fuckn good sense to me (in particular with the medic comment) ##Unvote ##Vote: yamato77 | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
If Yamato is scum, and im cleared as VT for the 2nd time in the game (DT check + your role setup above) Are you preferring JX or iamp as 2nd scum? (i know previously you said order is yam > jx > me); but knowing im green may have changed that equation. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On February 02 2013 01:59 Mocsta wrote: The question was in general. I believe at the start of the thread, it was discussed miller is about 40% likely. Hence, false miller claim can be countered about 60% of the time? Correct? If you think green check is worth less than miller claim, you think the likelihood of a green check being scum (in general), would be >>60% of the time? Correct? As in....you think that the chance of GF being in the game is greater than 60%?? & By corollay: if Miller is present, all green DT checks are essentially moot (as worth less than the miller claim) So if Vivax checked you, and you were green.. we could all state on your heuristic you are the Godfather If we extend this to my situation. If you are going to sit here and continue to accuse me of being the godfather, go ahead and make a case. Regardless of xsksc inactivity (which he explained in full), judge me by my content - I have been contributing enough this cycle for a read IMHO. If you dont think I have been open and transparent; if you dont think I have been trying to spark conversation; if you dont think I am scum hunting with logic; log your vote my way, but dont forget to build that case. Otherwise, accept I am a VT; and continue the scum hunt. @ Mocsta One thing to consider is that scum (especially a scum player like marv) knows approximately how much blue roles there are in the town when they get to know the scumteam composition. So they can evaluate how much risk they take by claiming (cop is always more risky to claim because the cop has more probability to get rolled in the town). If you are not GF (and I assume you are going to work from this point of view  ), then I think that the scumteam has no GF. No GF for the scumteam (ie a scum team with goon, goon, RB) means 3 or 4 letter slots for blue roles, so from the scumteam point of view, you should calculate a conditional probability to know the risk you have to be counterclaimed. This is something I didn't consider until now (I was working with "absolute" probabilities), but the risk a goon is taking to get counterclaimed by a real miller in this case is only roughly of 25%. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
I can almost guarantee that I'll be shot next. I am 100% not mafia and I have the most following of anyone in this game. I am more innocent than Imp for once and he could still theoretically be pushed as a lynch while I can't until all the scum are dead. If all the scum are dead and we're still playing you need to look at everyone again. If I was sk and two town viggies had shot N1 and N2 I would hold my shot and wait til lylo. So don't auto-lynch djo on the assumption he is the sk in 2-1 if all scum have been eliminated. Make sure to think about it. DO NOT TRUST THE SETUP SPECULATION TOO MUCH. This is not a totally normal C9++ according to toad. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On February 02 2013 02:01 Promethelax wrote: I've been working under the assumption that one V us a single shot vig here and VV is two single shot viggies. if we're at VVMC (which I doubt) we'd theoretically have TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer but if we have a serial killer we're only at VMC which has TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker in all likelyhood this set-up is VVC vs. TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker so final set-up would be 2 one shot vigs 1 one shot cop 7 VTs vs 2 goons 1RB which means Moc is confirmed town if yamato flips scum. We obviously have no doc because anyone not protecting EZ last night is a fucking retard. EZ was the only scum shot in this town and he/they were obvious townies. Yeah, I think Prom is right on this one. But I have difficulties to see iamp or JX as yamato's scumbuddy. But lynching yamato first is the right choice for sure. I'm quite confident that Prom is also a town vig when he brings up that kind of reasoning, because I came to the same point myself. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Gotcha; 25% is relatively safe. With that type of probability I will mention some WIFOM that was previously raised (without as much context) [When this game started Marv was already mayor in Mafia LIX.] - new context I dunno about you, but if I was mayor I would want to keep playing that game to 100% capabilities (esp. if also playing Mafia: MTG). I can see 25% chance of counter, being a scum gambit to go into late game, with minimal effort. I understand the above is pure WIFOM and isnt a reason to vote Yamato (thats based on his very scummy play). I was just commenting that it makes sense for the claim from a scum POV too. | ||
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