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On January 31 2013 14:42 Acid~ wrote:
Again, Zare is confirmed town now that we know warbaby was telling the truth
Well, not exactly, seeing as Zare himself raised this:
On January 31 2013 11:58 zarepath wrote:
If there is a JK, they NEED to role claim. It means that Sn0_Man was lying.
On January 31 2013 12:00 cakepie wrote:
Plus JK's N1 target who failed to report being blocked.
Of course, a JK is quite implausible at this point given what has happened.
A JK roleclaim at this juncture would need to:
- justify not claiming on D2 in response to the presence of two other roleclaims (wait-and-see, perhaps? but such a player should have pounced upon Sn0 immediately after warbaby's flip)
- provide a plausible N1 action
The implications of a true JK roleclaim are that:
- Sn0 is lying about being a cop
- someone did not declare that they were roleblocked N1.
- zare is not confirmed town, as N1 no kill could have been due to JK and not doc
We of course also have to consider that the JK claim could be a fake claim as part of a gambit by scum to discredit Sn0, and by association, Cora (although logically speaking, null). It would be an incredibly risky move.
For the record, acid, cora, zare and myself have posted without claiming JK.
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Guys, don't automatically assume that scum will kill the cop claim and leave us with two confirmed townies.
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On February 01 2013 01:26 Sn0_Man wrote:
If I were scum, I'd avoid having my name associated with the medic lynch. No need to lynch the medic (once he has claimed) since you can just NK him instead from safety. The only reason to lynch the medic is for convenience, but if I were scum I'd rather not blow my cover by swapping votes or casting a hammer vote.
Except why not? Warbaby managed to alienate himself vs so many people that the free medic lynch would look really safe and tempting. Many players already had a poor assessment of warbaby, it was precisely the fact that he looked set to be under then gun that led to him softclaiming, and then being forced to hard claim.
- Acid was engaged in a mutual tunnel fest with warbaby
- Corazon had serious issues with warbaby (and acid) getting too embroiled with one another and not helping look elsewhere
- Acid, zare, sn0 already voting warbaby before the claim
- glurio had cast slight suspicion on the basis of warbaby D1 voteswitching
Scum was foiled N1 and did not get a kill in. Why not ensure the death of the medic and free up the night kill for hunting another blue role, or offing players who are the greatest threat, coming too close to finding scum?
It's all WIFOM.
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On February 01 2013 01:28 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2013 01:22 cakepie wrote:
Guys, don't automatically assume that scum will kill the cop claim and leave us with two confirmed townies. I'm playing based off of that assumption. If it changes then I'll be around to change my play, but if it doesn't then my play is justified right now.
No, you need to consider both possibilities.
At 4-2 it will be a MYLO on D3. It is in fact completely plausible for scum to aim for zero confirmed townies by killing Zare, keeping both you (Sn0) and Cora in the game, trying to discredit you based on D2 play and voting, and playing for the mislynch. On the other hand, Sn0 flipping cop with the nightkill gives us two confirmed townies at 4-2 MYLO.
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Will be busy with work until 1h before end of night. For now, I leave two important thoughts:
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I reiterate that Zare and Sn0 really need to post a predawn will; most likely one of you will die tonight.
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Let me share with you my most important observation, coming into the game as a fresh replacement, without the emotional investment of D1, N1, and early-to-mid D2, and speaking as an outsider reading all of that while catching up to the thread.
Look at who among you are willing to come out and make controversial statements and possibly offend people. And look at who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.
The nature of D1, with the lack of any information, is that any "scumhunting" is going to be a crapshoot, relying on very weak evidence. There will often necessarily be plenty of WIFOM. (This holds true extending into D2 in this game, given how useless D1 was.) This is not unexpected.
The problem with what happened subsequently, is that defenses and counteroffensives became a huge pile of OMGUS, and WIFOM upon WIFOM, spiraling out of control. And everyone got entangled into this messy web.
A lot of arguments were built upon:
- "this is a terrible case, hence X is scum"
- "this is scum trying to save himself"
- "this is scum trying to save a scumbuddy"
But:
- Weak cases are a necessary evil in the early game. Bad cases at this point should be null at best, and perhaps even contribute a town lean for effort.
- why can't a townie want to save himself ?
- why can't a townie want to save someone that they have a good reason to believe is town?
There are equally valid townie explanations for many of the actions that we've seen, but the focus has been placed far too greatly upon trying to find any reason at all to cast someone as scummy.
Take a moment, and remember: It's a newbie game. Now, it is not my intent to offer a free noob-pass to anyone, but I find it troubling that plays that are easily explained by hypothesis of inexperienced town and inexperienced blue are instead cast in the light of convoluted, gutsy expert scum conspiracies and gambits.
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This is my perspective, from a position where I remain as detached as I can from the shit-flinging (especially early D2). We are at MYLO, and I see my task now as very simple: find the scummiest player, and lynch them. This mantra, which I learned from my last game, is the only thing I can do now, and indeed the only thing any townie can do now. If we do it right, then we continue the hunt. If we do this wrong, we lose. I'm not being defeatist, I'm just being a realist -- this is the situation we find ourselves in.
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On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote:
Either cake and slay or sn0 with slay/cora/cake are the scum.
Hmm, thats four out of seven people. Wow. And if Zare dies tonight to eliminate the almost-confirmed townie who also happens to be possibly quite threatening with his play, that's four out of six!
On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote:
What favors team lurker in my opinion is: no kill in the N1, so both lurkers really didn't send an action in.
Also slays play in the beginning was scummy as hell. (Always points out he's noob town, who wants to be recognised as noob? No one will listen, it just doesn't make sense in my eyes.)
Cake conveniently became active just before the D2 Lynch. Seeing his, mostly inactive, scum buddy parked on the claimed medic. So he tried to get him lynched earning him a ton of town cred. Either way he would win.
Again with the implausible no nightaction assumption + association case without flip.
Or trying to build an association case before flip so you can point to it as reason lynch me after you bus Slayalot with the rest of us? After all, he took quite a bit of heat toward the end of D2 and nearly got lynched instead of warbaby.
On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote:
Now what i believe is more likely: sn0 is scum.
Gambling with claiming cop and just one minute to late to unvote, what a shame! Could have unvoted 5 minutes earlier if u wanted, you were here the whole time.
WIFOM. There are equally good town and scum explanations for what happened. nuff said.
On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote:
You were the one who actually convinced me to keep my vote on warbaby with your whole "i don't wanna check him i wanna see him die." You didn't unvote, so i didn't. Thought the whole game you were right.
Then while warbaby claimed, confusing everybody with "the real doctor shouldn't claim blahblah" and then went to "please claim real doctor" all the while after the claim staying on warbaby with your vote.
Another guy shifting responsibility. What is it with all you guys, can't take responsibility for your votes?
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On February 01 2013 07:27 cDgCorazon wrote:
Sn0- [...] Why would the mafia not take a chance and get a free blue kill after the town killed off the other blue? It’s too tempting of a proposition to pass up.
Because D3 is a 4-2 MYLO. Right now, Zare almost confirmed town, and you, Cora, are NOT confirmed. Killing Sn0 and flipping the cop gives us two 100% confirmed townies in 4-2 MYLO. It's completely plausible for scum to want to avoid that in favor of something more likely to give them the mislynch thay they need.
Whereas, by killing Zare, there are actually ZERO confirmed townies, and scum can simply aim for a chaos play capitalizing on remaining doubts about Sn0 (and yourself), throwing suspicion around two or three targets looking for a mislynch. Confirming townies will not help scum, whereas keeping someone who is controversial alive may be a worthwhile gamble -- Sn0's cop claim is clearly not universally believed, and so even if he gets a useful check tonight, not everyone is going to believe it at face value. (a JK claim might even be used in a gambit to cause confusion.)
Remember: all it takes is one stubborn misguided townie and two scum votes to lock in a mislynch.
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On February 01 2013 09:11 Sn0_Man wrote:
In case it isn't clear, my "last will" is that
a) cora and zare are both confirmed town, and cakepie is not far behind
b) as a result of A, glurio is scum
A bit more closer to the deadline, please?
Also please declare your night action target at XX:59:50 with justification for your choice. This will help if you actually survive.
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Zare: 100% confirmed town unless there is some really convoluted JK claim. Solid effort, not afraid to make cases and
Sn0_Man: There is no way a scum Sn0 could safely claim cop when he did. I don't think we're looking at some complicated and daring scum gambit. This is more likely to be a true, goodwill attempt to prevent a Corazon mislynch. Also, any argument based on his failed late D2 vote switch is WIFOM and I will not accept it as strong evidence. He was at least considering and agonizing about the various possibilities presented.
Corazon: Plays based on trying to foster discussion, trying to break up the pointless penis contest, and the mutual tunneling by Acid and warbaby. Unfortunately did not succeed in convincing people that he brought anything useful to the table himself, thus looks hypocritical. Buckled under pressure, but that is null in the newbie context. Right now, really needs to take off tinfoil hat for a moment.
Acid: Got entangled in shit flinging with warbaby, then went WIFOM/OMGUS on Corazon. But not afraid to take a stance. Also, quickly saw the logical merits of not voting warbaby regardless of the truth of the doc claim. D1 was an issue, but has stepped things up late D2.
Glurio: Never committed to a clear stance independently, although posts when prompted or questioned. Casts suspicions widely, but solidifies only on "safe", "fashion-of-the-moment" options votes, delivering just-before-hammer voting on both days. Did not entertain other possibilities, without any consideration at all, instead sheeping Sn0 to not move his vote.
Slayalot: (out of time typing -- similar to glurio)
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On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:
Look at who among you are willing to come out and make controversial statements and possibly offend people. And look at who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.
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GG zare!
Let's have that cop check result.
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On February 01 2013 07:27 cDgCorazon wrote:
After the craziness of D2, I want to get my thoughts in before the night lynch deadline. I’m actually writing this about 5 hours after the lynch, but I have a very busy day lined up tomorrow (today as this is being posted), and I would not have time to get anything in before the deadline unless I wrote it now.
Sn0- Although he has been defending me most of the game, I’m suspicious of him.
[...]
That is such a terrible crumb. There's no system whatsoever to the way you claim to hide the message.
Do you realize that it is technically possible to take any arbitrary, sufficiently long text, and pull out letters selectively to form almost any message one desires?
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On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote:
It's possible you should no-lynch tomorrow so you have the time to MAKE Sn0 either make two reads, or be lynched again by scum and still be in a good spot.
What do people think about this? Do you think that if we no-lynch today, scum will have to kill Sn0 with the N3 nightkill?
I feel that:
If Sn0 is really cop, scum would be happy to let him get a check in and kill someone else instead. They can still discredit the hell out of him again on D4, it would be no different from today.
If Sn0 is scum with cop fakeclaim, he'll live through to D4 anyways <-- this possibility enables the WIFOM value above.
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For now, we've already heard from glurio during N2, but Slayalot has not posted in 28 hours. So I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads.
##Vote: Slayalot
##FoS: glurio
Reason:
On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:
who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification.
as well as voting patterns
D1 voting
+ Show Spoiler +
27 21:17 zarepath -> AFKing
28 00:39 warbaby -> SkaPunk
28 03:41 Sn0_Man -> SkaPunk
28 03:59 cDgCorazon -> Abenson
28 05:08 Slayalot -> SkaPunk
28 05:22 glurio -> SkaPunk
28 08:35 warbaby -> Abenson
28 09:37 warbaby -> AFKing
28 09:55 cDgCorazon -> SkaPunk
On a day where the town thing to do is to use your vote as a tool to drive activity ("post stuff or be lynched"), both Slayalot and glurio happily contribute the third and fourth votes on SkaPunk, significantly ahead of the voting deadline, with poor justification. With three inactives in AFK, Ska, and Acid (and the spurious Abenson), there are plenty of targets to spread the votes around on, and pressure for activity. Some people attempted to do this, after a fashion. Slayalot and glurio are among those who did not pressure well, and fired upon safe targets only.
D2 voting
+ Show Spoiler +
As at Slayalot's 31 Jan 07:02 KST vote:
29 10:46 Acid -> warbaby
29 11:02 warbaby -> Acid
29 15:30 warbaby -> -none-
30 02:38 Sn0_Man -> warbaby
30 07:57 cDgCorazon -> Acid
31 00:34 zarepath -> warbaby
31 03:06 warbaby -> Slayalot
31 05:38 glurio -> warbaby
31 06:31 zarepath -> -none-
31 06:37 warbaby -> glurio
31 07:02 Slayalot -> warbaby
[...]
warbaby (4): Acid, Sn0, zarepath, glurio, Slayalot
The critical four votes. And then both conveniently disappear, with glurio making only a brief appearance during which he refuses to entertain alternative scenarios, in light of there being both a doc and cop claim.
Slayalot hasn't even been seen since. I want to hear what he has to say, hence the vote on him rather than on glurio. In any case I'll happily lynch either of them.
(Also, more WIFOM for glurio's WIFOM bonfire: you want to cast me as scumbuddies with slayalot, and make a case against me for bussing? HAVE AT IT. You think scum is willing to start a 4-2 MYLO day by initiating the wagon that will bus his scumbuddy? I don't think that idea is very sellable. [ see: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17684181 ])
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On February 01 2013 11:26 cakepie wrote:
That is such a terrible crumb. There's no system whatsoever to the way you claim to hide the message.
Do you realize that it is technically possible to take any arbitrary, sufficiently long text, and pull out letters selectively to form almost any message one desires?
I'm a little teapot. 
meaningless example, but QED.
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On February 01 2013 11:54 cDgCorazon wrote:
Let's see what Sn0's check was before going any further (unless he said who he was checking before).
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On February 01 2013 09:22 cakepie wrote:
Also please declare your night action target at XX:59:50 with justification for your choice. This will help if you actually survive.
On February 01 2013 09:59 Sn0_Man wrote:
Night action:
I'm checking acid because he's the loose cannon. Glurio *is* scum, acid is unknown, along with slay.
I feel like a cleared acid is very powerful, and if hes scum then gg.
On February 01 2013 10:08 cakepie wrote:
GG zare!
Let's have that cop check result.
On February 01 2013 10:12 Sn0_Man wrote:
Town.
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In the context of:
On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
if Sn0 is telling the truth, the only possible scum are:
Cakepie
Glurio
Slayalot
Clearly, I get to use process of elimination to arrive at two scum, if I were to believe Sn0's cop claim and his two town checks. (Note that at this point, I consider Sn0's claims as admissible circumstantial evidence to be used in conjunction with my reads based on their play and voting, but not necessarily unassailable truth.)
Anyone else subscribing to "Sn0 is telling the truth" needs to justify their choice of two of three possible scum (and by extension, who of three is town).
Corazon will at some point need to explain where he derives the bias against Glurio and Slayalot from. He's almost given me a free pass, a dangerous thing to do at MYLO.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
I'm all for lynching either Glurio or Slayalot today. I want to see how both of them play out D3 before making a decision.
Sn0 uses a town read on me to conclude glurio is scum and to decide to check Acid:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2013 01:42 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 09:24 cakepie wrote:
What do you guys think of as the better alternative, glurio or slayalot?
I was willing to get behind warbaby's vote on glurio, but things moved too quickly.
(Basis: voting patterns)
In any case I am not willing to be on either the cora or warbaby wagons. This post occured shortly after my cop claim. I'd like to highlight it. At this point there were (I think, since we didn't have any votecounts) 4 on warbaby, 3 on Cora, 1 on Slay. Or something similar. Actually, Cakepie may have not voted at all, leaving it at 4-3 at that stage. Either way, I'd like to point out that right about here is where a scum would have done something like "OMFG LOOK AT DAT WARBABY SCUMMY AS HELL LETS VOTE HIM". Not being willing to be on a wagon is very townie. Scum are generally desperate for easy wagons to park their vote on, especially when warbaby and cora are both town. This actually narrows it down to (IMO) 3 possible scum candidates right now: Acid, Glurio and Slay. Now, if Slay is mafia, then so must be glurio (otherwise the votes make no sense, why would acid lynch a scumbuddy when he could totally have hammered WB with ease?. If slay is NOT mafia, then acid and glurio are the scumteam. EITHER WAY, GLURIO IS SCUM. As far as I'm concerned, Glurio is scum.
He admits it's not ideal basis to make such a strong read:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2013 01:57 Sn0_Man wrote:
Okay maybe the read on cakepie is a little strong to base on just 1 post, but I thought that post was very indicative of his overall play.
Without a red cop check, you're going to have to have a much stronger basis than just a read on a single post to eliminate me as possible scum.
Acid gave a list early in N2, but I think that needs to be revisited in the context of new information i.e. zare's flip and sn0's claimed N2 green check.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 11:50 Acid~ wrote:
I know you all love list posts, so here it is:
cDgCorazon: TOWN - conditional on Sn0_Man actually being cop
cakepie: so far the vote and general attitude have me leaning TOWN
Slayalot: this is not about lurking anymore, but deliberate inactivity and refusal to participate in the scumhunt. SCUM
Sn0_Man: If he is scum, then he attacked Corazon d1 with the intention of proving him innocent d2, but Corazon wasn't under any scrutiny d1 apart from Sn0... plus the breadcrumbing early in the day... it doesn't make sense to me. Also, he switched off warbaby at the end and there is no way to tell if the precise last minute posting was intentional or not. Still, I noticed something but I'm not sure I want to talk about it yet. There is definitely a possible scenario where the scum team is Sn0_Man+Corazon but it requires no one to counterclaim cop which is a 50/50 gamble on their part. Tough call but... when in doubt refer to the simplest explanation, so: TOWN
zarepath: playing about the same as in XXXV where he was town. N1 results + warbaby's claim make him a pretty strong TOWN read.
glurio: Refused to switch off warbaby, general inactivity + there's no one else = SCUM
glurio and slayalot can obviously also choose to believe Sn0 and then arrive at two scum by eliminating themselves with a town claim. However glurio will have a hard time making a scumteam of Slayalot + myself look plausible on the basis of Sn0's claimed cop checks -- he'd have to pull a 180 of a 180 of his read on Sn0 to get there.
================================================================================
I'm still trying to decide what to make of Corazon's ridiculous N2 deception plan and the associated crumb:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687661
I've demonstrated how it the crumb is awful:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687687
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687837
Corazon has apologized for bad crumb:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687707
and bad N2 play:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:
I'm really sorry for the shitty N2. I've had a lot of work and school in the past 2 days (basically I've had 3-4 hours of free time in the past 36 hours), and all of the emotion I had to put into D2 really drained me.
It should be clear that lying in a newbie game is generally unacceptable, so such deception play is already terribad on account of that alone. Additionally, the rationale behind the deception is ...questionable...?
On February 01 2013 11:22 cDgCorazon wrote:
If the general consensus is that Sn0 is cop, then the scum would've taken him out immediately. I faked a lack of consensus that Sn0 was cop (and the fact that not everyone was 100% sold on his claim) so that the scum would choose to lynch someone else, and Sn0's all-important check would be allowed to be heard today.
Remember, we might have had Sn0 killed N2 giving two confirmed townies.
Instead, our current situation is one where we have either:
- 2 scum out of 3 candidates if you completely believe Sn0, or
- Sn0 is a liar, but his scumbuddy could be almost anybody
I am not completely sure which situation would have been better for us.
On top of that, Corazon's little plan opens himself up to attack, provides ammunition for a Sn0-cora scumteam association case, and reopens a D2 can of worms.
I'm also not completely convinced that if there had been no "artificial" suspicions on Sn0 from Corazon, scum would happily killed Sn0 and given us two confirmed townies with Sn0's cop flip on a 4-2 MYLO day.
Lastly, Zarepath ended up being engaged in discussion with Corazon for a little bit due to this. How much of his will is influenced no thanks to being misled by Cora's play? How much of it is what he would have believed without that influence? We'll never know now.
================================================================================
On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:I'm going to take a few hours away from the game to clear my head and start being a good town player, not one who is being inhibitive to the scumhunt.
Have a good night's sleep, come back fresh tomorrow.
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Glurio, if you're so sure about Sn0, why don't you vote him? Not willing to commit your vote on your strongest scumread?
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Guys, I want to emphasize that we cannot simply play today based solely on the reasoning that: "I strongly believe Sno's cop claim and his green checks, therefore we've already solved this game easily". Over reliance on blue powers, and thus slacking off on your own scumhunting, is a poor way to play and will not help you improve.
The cop claim may look strong especially in the absence of a JK claim, but remember, a strong read is still not 100% certainty. Only a dead man's flip is certain. There remains the (admittedly slim) possibility that there is only Doc and no other power role in this game, and Sn0 is simply lying.
@ Cora, Acid: "Sn0 has my alignment correct" should be a null tell. Scum with a cop fakeclaim could also trivially supply correct alignments, because they already know. DO NOT use this as basis to support your belief that he is honest.
I've talked about it before ( here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17689059 ) but I want to reiterate: you are going to have to build more of a case to justify your voting today -- please do not rely too much on the basis of the cop check information.
I'm not saying that I consider Sn0's claim to be a lie -- the claim is fairly strong. It serves as great backing evidence to go with my own reads. But it is not 100% unassailable, so I depend on what I see in the play of glurio and slayalot (although it is more like failure to actually play, in slay's case)
Basically, what I'm trying to get at, is that this statement:
On February 02 2013 00:47 Sn0_Man wrote:
DO YOU BELIEVE ME?
That question is the entirety of this game right now. BTW you is Acid/Cake/Cora. Slay/Glurio obviously won't believe me.
That's not actually true at all. We all need to scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim.
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On February 02 2013 04:41 Sn0_Man wrote:
I'd much rather consolidate on glurio than on slay, because of the very slight chance of a glurio/cake scumteam. Cakepie moving your vote to glurio would help assuage my fears on that.
Glurio seems to be happy to continue digging his grave for the time being, and I think you'll continue to see that I have no problem with pointing out what's wrong with his play and posting behavior.
Slayalot on the other hand is simply not even playing. He's gone for close to 42 hours, and then when he comes back, is simply content to let others do the playing and thinking for him:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2013 00:51 Slayalot wrote:
Hello guys
2 questions
1: Is the "no-lynch" off the table again? (Cause it makes alot of sense. Giving 1 more day to outnumber scum. If I understand correctly)
2: Has Acid been proven town or killed? Or why is no one talking about him?
Since the page 1 isn't updated on "spoiler -flips" I don't konw how many are left. Can this either be updated or someone tell me.
Talking about the no-lynch option clearly demonstrates that he is at least up to date on what is going on, even if it was just a quick skim through and not a thourough read of the thread. There's only like half a dozen posts involving "no-lynch" -- not hard to search and see what people think about it, and do a bit of your own logical thinking. Instead, all he does is post an inane question like "it makes sense to me, did we already rule it out?" without demonstrating any in depth consideration about what a no-lynch would entail (in fact, all that was already discussed quite well.)
And the question about acid is just lazy.
And now he is gone from the thread again.
This is no way for a townie to be playing at 4:2 MYLO. I want to make him post more, so that we have something to work with. Whereas we've already got more from Glurio to pore over. (Yes, this game is so pathetic that I have to play D3 like it's D1.)
So, my vote stays on Slayalot, while I will continue prodding glurio with a strong FoS. I will not shut the door on glurio just yet -- he's got ONE CHANCE to demonstrate that we're wrong about him being scum, and that he is town. As long as we get him to continue posting, that is net positive for town. He can either successfully exonerate himself, or give us more evidence to use against him. So far it's looking more like the latter, though.
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On February 02 2013 07:24 Sn0_Man wrote:
The game is actually all figured out, but I'm the only person who *knows* I'm cop (except cora has a pretty good idea because I cop-claimed to save him and he knows he's town).
There are no other real explanations. Sure, you can "scumhunt" today to see if you believe me or not, but the entire game is solved one way or the other based on everybody's belief of my cop claim. And since there are 4 town 2 scum, I'd rather get 3 people on glurio ASAP so that 1 misled townie can't make a mislynch happen.
We have 26+ hours to work with here. The game may be solved from your perspective, but I don't see why the rest of us should not spend this available time to find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence that it's glurio being scum with his most likely partner being slayalot.
Additionally, like I said already, *I* can narrow it down to glurio and slayalot. The rest of you -- this includes you, Sn0 -- also still have to convince yourselves that the last scum is slayalot rather than me. But slay has given us practically nothing to work with.
Suppose we all sit around and thumb ass, and correctly lynch scum glurio correctly. His scumbuddy does not concede, someone dies N3. We go into D4 at 3-1 MYLO again. Why not use the time right now to generate more activity that can only help us with our analysis, both today in D3 and possibly tomorrow?
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On February 02 2013 07:47 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 07:37 cakepie wrote:
Suppose we all sit around and thumb ass, and correctly lynch scum glurio correctly. His scumbuddy does not concede, someone dies N3. We go into D4 at 3-1 MYLO again. Why not use the time right now to generate more activity that can only help us with our analysis, both today in D3 and possibly tomorrow?
Either I die in that scenario, or I have a cop check to establish the last scum. Its pretty much the same thing to me, but I guess I'm a bit over-fatalistic here.
You are completely pragmatic and absolutely correct. Those are precisely the only two sensible options assuming a glurio lynch today flips scum.
The corollary of that, of course, is that I don't need to convince you of anything. If you live, you solve the game using your powers, period. If you die, I need to convince Cora and Acid that I am town. Not you, Sn0. I don't need to worry about what you think. I'm playing for the endgame.
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On February 02 2013 07:47 Sn0_Man wrote:
As I said previously, I'd like you to vote for glurio asap (YOU TOO CORA) so that we have the first timestamp on a 3-vote, just in case I can't convince the rest of town (acid). Since, while I'd like consensus, at this point really we have a first-to-three gets lynched scenario.
Why can't you trust Acid more? In your perspective, he is confirmed town. And when I finally got in at the end of D2 and proposed alternative wagon on either glurio or slay, he was the first to act on it, planting the first vote back onto slayalot. He had good clarity of thought under time pressure (<1h to deadline):
+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2013 10:00 Acid~ wrote:
I know how you feel, but play Pascal's wager on this.
If war is scum and you lynch him, you probably die tonight.
If war is scum and you save him, you die tonight and we lynch him tomorrow.
If war is medic and you lynch him, we lose medic and cop
If war is medic and you save him, he dies tonight but we save you. Adding that if war is medic and you are cop, you know zare and cora are innocent and you can check glurio
I just don't see a town Acid being the one stubborn town that combines with two scum to deliver the required 3 votes to mislynch.
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EPT
