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On January 24 2013 07:00 grush57 wrote:
you really think scum would actually do that?
lol It's lylo with 3 scum left, and I would suicide?
I wanted to get a reaction out of you. I can't believe you just put all that bullshit about how the game is over, im actually scum and giving the game up.
btw I meant that as what you said about completely throwing out what I said.
Anyways becasue I hate dealing with wbg and he had some pretty townie stuff, iamperfection I am going to pull a jay and get you to do a case for me.
In the meantime,
##Unvote
##Hapahauli
I'll be looking at jay baby :D
no, this is me calling your shitty bluff.
You're not going to read jay and you certainly didn't read shit from my filter, you just copy + pasted it and summarized it in the shittiest manner possible.
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On January 24 2013 07:03 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 07:03 wherebugsgo wrote:On January 24 2013 07:00 grush57 wrote:
you really think scum would actually do that?
lol It's lylo with 3 scum left, and I would suicide?
I wanted to get a reaction out of you. I can't believe you just put all that bullshit about how the game is over, im actually scum and giving the game up.
btw I meant that as what you said about completely throwing out what I said.
Anyways becasue I hate dealing with wbg and he had some pretty townie stuff, iamperfection I am going to pull a jay and get you to do a case for me.
In the meantime,
##Unvote
##Hapahauli
I'll be looking at jay baby :D no, this is me calling your shitty bluff. You're not going to read jay and you certainly didn't read shit from my filter, you just copy + pasted it and summarized it in the shittiest manner possible. that language is why no one wants to talk to you :'(
and your playstyle is why I hate playing with you.
seriously, if you flip town I'm quitting mafia for a good 3-4 months.
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like seriously, you know how demoralizing it is to have to deal with players like you every fucking single game?
Sometimes you're more of an asset to mafia as town than as mafia! Seriously, what the fuck?!
I don't understand what the motivation is behind playing the way you do. You sign up for multiple games and afk through them all, forcing townies to question whether or not you're scum or town lurking it away. It's not fun to have to deal with players like you, it makes the game almost impossible to win.
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sorry, I'm going to try to cool off a little bit.
grush if you're town, it's not personal, I just really despise having to read players who do not post and do not do anything for the majority of the game.
lylo situations are always frustrating because I feel like it's always a crapshoot between lots of players who simply have not put in very much effort into the game. If scum have put in effort (like Hapa) over the townies, then how are you to tell the difference between a lurking scum and a townie? Its one of the hardest things to do in mafia, and to be asked to do that multiple times is just mentally exhausting.
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ok, let me go back again, I missed that.
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nope, I went back and reread and you're still wrong iamp.
hapa's main push on d1 of that game was debears. He voted thrawn once and then promptly unvoted him and tunneled debears the rest of d1. His vote ended on Z-Bos and from what I could tell it spent the least time on thrawn.
He might have voted thrawn, but he didn't push him. He definitely pushed debears, and one could argue he tried to push DP and Z-Bo, too. The situations are also quite different-in this game, Hapa was under almost no pressure until yesterday, whereas in that game he was under pressure since day 1.
The only alternative to grush really is jay and remotely Xata, if we believe scum have been holding RB. It's rather ambiguous though, whether they held RB or used it on the night Hapa claimed it. If Xata is scum then slOosh's claim of Xata being blue is the perfect excuse to hold RB, but still, I'm not that sure.
Unfortunately none of these players are very easy to read. grush's back and forth with me seemed motivated but then what do we do with the rest of his play? Just ignore it?
Do we just ignore jay's/xata's lack of contributions? How do we read these guys?
You don't seem to want to do anything to help me out either, which is bothersome. You are most definitely town, don't you want to win this game? Why are you guys so passive in this type of situation when you know that a single mislynch will cause us to lose?!
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On January 24 2013 09:34 iamperfection wrote:
like bugs i think hapa even said in the obs of that thread that his play that game was designed to be wifom mind traps.
Hapa knows that he has to be somewhat of a leader as scum so he almost always comments on everything regardless of him being scum.
that just my perspective on the issue.
---------------------------------------------------
Tell me bugs are you surprised at all that lazer didn't vote for hapa sooner?
you mean like jay and xata?
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On January 24 2013 09:46 iamperfection wrote:
hapa gave up. scum wold have easily jumped on him but lazer seemed more cautious in his approach to me.
why the doubt from him
let me reread.
I don't recall doubt, I just recall him being afk.
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you're right, he was afk in the middle before he voted.
Was it actually clear hapa would die at the beginning of the day? He didn't troll until some time into the day. He was afk that entire time.
though, unfortunately, so were most of the other players, IIRC it was really only me and you in the thread early on
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grush has that instant confidence that hapa is scum. In fact, he telegraphed it very early.
He also magically went from considering xata as the third scum over lazer back to lazer. Look:
On January 22 2013 08:28 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 07:11 Xatalos wrote:I have to go sleep now, so unfortunately I can't wait for the deadline. But here are my current reads anyway (although I think most likely WBG or MrZentor is NK'd tonight). MrZentor is confirmed town, so there's no point to talk about him. I'm fairly certain that WBG is town as well. He's been the most influential and active poster ever since D2, yet he hasn't done anything alarming during this time, which feels like an almost impossible task for Mafia. He's also been constantly pushing town agenda by actively discussing, controlling the voting process and sharing reads. I haven't played with iamperfection before, but his play seems very similar to his earlier town play and he's been reasonably active, so I think he's town for now. I had to do some re-evaluation after Hopeless flipped town, so I think scum could be among any of these following players, but some are more likely scum than others. jaybrundageI didn't like his D1 play at all, but he started to focus on scumhunting during N1 and D2. Then he almost completely stopped posting (apparently internet problems or something), although his rare posts were okayish. I think it's plausible for him to flip scum, but not likely enough to make him a decent lynch. LazermonkeyHe's been a top suspect for most of the game, but I just couldn't see Kush behaving the way he did as scum. There aren't many choices left anymore, though, so by process of elimination (and lack of anything to really make me think of Lazermonkey as town) Lazermonkey has an okayish chance of flipping scum. HapahauliIf we look at just this one game, Hapahauli has played decently: pushed his scumreads, analyzed, posted a fairly good amount of content. But something is wrong. He has posted less and less frequently since the beginning (it's characteristic of scum to degrade in activity over time), led two mislynches (despite being a really good player) and used unusually bad logic (despite him usually having constantly sound logic): On January 13 2013 12:34 kushm4sta wrote:
hapa you aren't acting townie. You are actively pushing logical falsehoods for some reason and I don't get why. A more spammy version of the dumb or scum conundrum.
I'm just pointing out how your logic is bad. ---->I was useless as scum, i'm useless right now, therefore I must be scum.
Bad reasoning.. one example of many in the thread so far.
@hapa are you saying stupid shit just because you like to talk a lot? why are you using bad logic? None of these things were present when I played with town Hapa before! There's always the chance that he's just really having a bad game, but with all these combined, it feels like too much of a coincidence. A decent lynch IMO. grush57He actually has 5 pages of filter but (almost) nothing valuable in all those posts. Mostly it's just fluff, vague remarks and other unhelpful small talk. He also flip-flops on his reads constantly and almost never gives reasoning for his reads and/or for the changes in them. This is a good example: On January 19 2013 11:54 grush57 wrote:On January 19 2013 10:27 iamperfection wrote:
im pretty sure hapa isnt scum at this point. I thought there was a possibility of him being sk but with that eliminated i think it is likely that he is town.
## Vote hopeless
You can die hopeless you are making no sense because you are scum. this guy is scum. Also because hopeless is too... ##Vote: Hopeless1dr He is confident in Hopeless flipping scum (apparently?). But then: On January 21 2013 02:54 grush57 wrote:
I'll go for a lazermonkey lynch.
##Unvote
##Vote: lazermonkey
Also Mr. Zentor you are a confirmed town and you are doing absolute jack shit with it. Jumping off the wagon for some reason (Hopeless' recent surge of activity?) when a good opportunity presents itself. No real reasoning for this HUGE change from clear scum -> don't lynch! Of course he can look better after Hopeless flips town, right? - - - Then we have to also consider grush's recent push for Hapa. I think it's weird for him to do that if they're both scum (not impossible but somewhat unlikely), so more likely one of them is scum and one is town. Hapa hasn't played up to his meta, but he has still played much better than pretty much anyone else, so I'd say grush is the safer lynch right now. And *safe* is the keyword at LYLO... There are no second chances anymore. Xata, I think your the 3rd scum and not lazermonkey or you don't know what your talking about. Hopeless was actively trying to promote discussion and was the only one active. I realized this so I went on lazermonkey. Those were 2 days apart. I don't know how you think I did it for town cred when lazermonkey could of been lynched too at that point.
On January 22 2013 11:09 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 11:07 jaybrundage wrote:On January 22 2013 11:06 grush57 wrote:
Some of you aren't convinced wbg is scum either, but Hapa is scum too so I am fine with lynching him first.
Are there any games of town wbg recently making it to lylo?
A town wbg should of been shot by now(hapa too prolly), and there are only excuse was last night because of town confirmed zentor. So Grush you see a WBG Hapa scum team whats your third? Whats your thoughts on lazer? Probably lazer as the third scum.
those were like 3 posts apart, with no intermediate explanation at all.
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his switch from Hopeless to Hapa still makes absolutely no sense to me. I don't get it at all. It was such a convenient time for him to switch and I think almost everyone at that point perceived Hopeless as looking worse than Hapa.
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I think lazer might be town in that case, because grush certainly threw suspicion on both hapa and me at the same time for the exact same reason.
It's a common scum tactic to kill off all the vets except the one that is "most wrong" and in this case really there weren't many vets to shoot in the first place. This is because if you have an active on the scumteam they will have a much better chance of staying alive if there are other vets who are also alive.
It's how Radfield, myself, Ace, etc. often operate as scum. We shoot the scariest vets, and then leave alive some who we feel we can manipulate or lead off the wrong path, regardless of how right their reads are at any given time. Sometimes we do it to players who are somewhat right, just to throw them off, or to players who are wrong, since we have no fear of them.
In my case I basically did a lot of the work for scum. I went along and killed slOosh, and I would have definitely policy lynched Ruuch day 1 if enough votes had come my way. d3 I sided for Hopeless over Hapa. That's two mislynches (and I feel perhaps I should have done more to defend Prom) and a free SK lynch. So if I die and Hapa is left alive then it puts a looot of pressure on him when his main target (Hopeless) flips town. However if we are both alive then some of the pressure is shared by me.
The only other player who has attacked me is Xata really, but that was earlier on, and it was perhaps even quite ballsy of him to do that. You say lazer attacked me? I don't recall.
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On January 24 2013 09:58 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 09:55 wherebugsgo wrote:
his switch from Hopeless to Hapa still makes absolutely no sense to me. I don't get it at all. It was such a convenient time for him to switch and I think almost everyone at that point perceived Hopeless as looking worse than Hapa. he actually switched to lazer first hopeless was looking townie to me towards the end.
yes, to me as well, but when he switched that was before the key things Hopeless said.
At the time he switched Hopeless was simply arguing as he had done before.
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yeah, I remember that.
It made me actually question my scumread of him though, because it seemed like he put so much effort into that.
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I thought you meant more recently, tbh. That was over 4 days ago.
The upsides to a lazer lynch: he's escaped close lynches already
downsides: there are plenty of sort of vague heuristics that we can apply to his play to call him town.
Why is jay town? Can we answer that question? What has he done?
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actually I think I'm just running complicated circles around myself again. I remember why I considered jay town again, despite his inactivity he seems to be up-front in his questions and he seems to at least want to win the game.
Lazer's still not here, and neither is xata.
Let's go back to the simplest explanation I had, and that was in my votecount analysis before my seeding the thread with reads pulled grush out of his inactivity.
if grush left his vote on Lazer over Hopeless on d2 it could have meant Lazer would have died. If grush is scum with Lazer this is a really scary thing to do. Certainly if he places his vote and then moves it inexplicably it doesn't matter, since he's planning on squandering it anyway (as scum.) It makes no sense as town to waste your vote like that EVEN IF you have suddenly changed your mind about Hapa/Hopeless. It only makes sense if you intend on pushing your read to a lynch, but grush was not intending that. He was intending to afk, to leave his vote there, to waste it.
At that point even if one of us wanted to switch off Hopeless onto lazer, Hopeless still would've died because he reached 4 votes first. (it was 5-3-1 at that point)
The only way this makes sense from a town grush perspective is if he thought both Hopeless and Lazer were town, but it's clear by both his votes and his talk that he did not view lazer as town. He's not dumb, he knew the vote was between those 2. It's simply a scum move to waste it by putting it on Hapa, regardless of what we know now about Hapa's alignment.
I'm very tempted to simply go with Occam's Razor here and simply say we should lynch grush and then lazer.
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On January 24 2013 10:30 grush57 wrote:
WBG, you forgot one thing.
STARSENSES!
Also you're over thinking the vote I thought hopeless was dead and wanted to show my vote on Hapa.
And Lazermonkey is lurking so lynch him?
yeah, maybe the simplest explanation in reality is that you weren't thinking. lol.
iamp, when you're back:
do you think scum could have chosen to hold their roleblock after slOosh claimed that Xata is blue? (i.e. Xata is scum)
Right now the two players notably absent from this conversation are Xata and Lazer. Jay was around earlier.
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ah well fuck it's night in europe
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right now? no, I don't think so.
Suppose thrawn was a blue snipe, it's pretty plausible, and they possibly even avoided shooting me because they might have thought I was protted or something, then holding RB is a potential.
My problem with that though is that n2 is when thrawn died and prior to that, scum knew there had to be at least another blue role outside of super, because of the SK flip. Lazer was speculating about it, so either he's scum who simply copied in what his team was talking about or he was trying to figure it out himself. I don't actually see what conclusions he drew from it so it's certainly plausible that he simply copied and pasted what his team was talking about.
Normally if you setup-speculate you at least have a reason for doing it, lazer didn't seem to have one.
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oh and because they knew there was another blue then holding RB doesn't make much sense
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EPT
