Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIV - Page 5
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Spaghetticus
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Spaghetticus
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+ Show Spoiler + MY WILL On Mocsta: While I have the most posts, my contribution is likely less than Mocsta’s, so my dying is conspicuous when there is a stronger town to kill. It is my belief that if Mocsta is not killed, it is because scum have deliberately left him alone because either he is scum, or because they want people to assume him not being killed makes him scum. There is also the chance they will try to play around the possibility of a jailkeeper and lynch myself or Corazon assuming that the JK will keep Mocsta safe. They also have the same 50% chance of a JK existing to work with, because of the solid role distribution design (check it in the OP). This presumes they don’t have an amazing read on a blue role, which would alter their chances. Unfortunately, this leaves you with WIFOM. What to do from here? The same thing I’ve been doing, which is admitting to yourself that he could be scum, but also leaving him until last. Go for the other scum, and hope that their flip will lead you to Mocsta’s door (if he is scum). Now that I’ve made this available information, I expect scum to play around it from now on if they have not already been doing so, so posts previous to this one will be more valuable. Remember, if scum are playing on Mocsta’s obvious utility to town, they are taking a massive risk in keeping him alive to throw doubt on him. If he continues to remain alive and is green, then town are much stronger. If he is scum then we still can’t catch him without further information, so bide your time while his extreme output provides a paper trail. On TeMil: TeMiL is another person that presents massive difficulty. I am very reluctant to waste a day’s lynch on a null read just because his continued existence threatens town. Lynch’s are valuable tools and should be used to seek scum if possible. With two mislynches and two NK’s, that leaves a 3/2 town scum ratio for day three, which is LYLO. We need a scum dead on day two. In making the decision of whether to lynch TeMiL (as it is a tricky one), please refer to these posts:- Mocsta's day one case: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2013 22:41 TeMiL wrote: - Hide Spoiler - answering mocsta questions: - Hide Spoiler - (1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you? am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active. (2) "growing in my role" What does this mean? (I understand English is not your first language) i mean i can learn what to do and be a better player each day. right now am like a little boy in his first class, i want to learn a lot but is difficult to be attached every hour. ill try to change that. answering others post - Hide Spoiler - ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may ##Vote TeMil ________________________________________ i answer both rounds of questions and ive just finished the third. my 2 post where those questions and i couldnt write more because i went back home, forgot my celphone with internet connection and couldnt write any post until now. well ill hope u can change your mind. ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 14:44 OmniEulogy wrote: @StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else. ________________________________________ ill change your thoughts about me... can i? ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote: In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all. . ________________________________________ thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times. right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 21:12 StriX wrote: TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker. ________________________________________ until today . like i said i will practicing my english a lot! give an opportunity thats all ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 21:59 StriX wrote: ##unvote TeMiL ________________________________________ this was unespected, looks like cDgCorazon makes you change your vote? ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote: #Vote: TeMiL This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute. ________________________________________ ill contribute :D this is all right now. ________________________________________ ________________________________________ OMG... Before I played Newbie 33.. I read through Newbie 32... there was this guy.. AxelGreaser... you have just given me back nightmares of him.. Luckily Yamato isnt playing, he would probably delete his team liquid account. ________________________________________ In all seriousness, you have made my life easier today. I was about to start reading through filters, consolidating my thought process, to make a case as promised to cDgCorazon and Sylencia. But... your post, has made me throw that out the window ________________________________________ ##Vote: TeMiL ________________________________________ (1) You have had the lowest post contribution in 30hrs of play. No excuses (2) All your posts are fluff, and then your riposte to accusations of fluff, is simply fluffx2 with a Does this make you mafia? • NO, it does guarantee you are mafia. Does this make you absolutely useless and unreliable town? • YES, this is guaranteed. Town, I am voting TeMiL, because, his actions have proven to be useless and unreliable. (Yes, I use proven to a person with a 1 page filter, that is how strongly I feel) I ask you this... if we were down to 3 candidates, YOU (Town), X (Scum) and TeMiL... can you trust TeMiL to vote for X? I already know from his last post, the answer is no, I cant rely on his innocence as town, I can't rely on his skill to scum hunt, and I certainly can not rely on his ability to establish a vote. but... lets take a look at the flip side and counter my argument. (1) Do we care if we can rely on him, we are not down to 3 candidates? (2) Do you not have a better scum read you can target (instead of lurker bait), as you advocate others to do? ________________________________________ Well.. (1) Agreed, but there has been no stand out lynch candidate thus far. Thus, for Day1 it is highly likely TeMiL might be the hammer vote to send someone home... someone who could be Town.. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening? (2) Agreed, I had a better scum read prior to TeMiL posting, I was just about to read the filter. BUT, the risks to me from (1) are too extreme. We have limited players, 7 townies, every player counts. If TeMiL hammered a townie home, and then a townie is dropped off from Night Kill, Day 2 starts with 2 mafia and 5 townies; which is going to signficantly reduce town odds. I am looking at the big picture here, and lynching a ?possible town? TeMiL to me is less risk long term than lynching my scum read, who may also be a town flip. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening? ________________________________________ P.S. Just refreshed to see if anything new before posted, and saw this beauty. Case in Point. or as I have always wanted to say since doing Trigonometry in high school. Q.E.D - Hide Spoiler - ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 23:14 TeMiL wrote: ________________________________________ Hide nested quote - On January 04 2013 22:49 zarepath wrote: TeMiL, what do you think about my earlier analysis of Sylencia? ________________________________________ u have something agains australians or isjust causality to target him? looks like you now how to analyse a gamer. its a good brief of course and thanks to made me read it again Spag's plea to ignore TeMiL: + Show Spoiler + I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with. If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL. Syl's reprimand: + Show Spoiler + If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote. If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes. Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds. Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game? Spag's response to Syl's reprimand: + Show Spoiler + This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post. His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way. In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two). TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same. You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play. Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain... How frustrating. Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum. + Show Spoiler + Mislynch analysis: StriX StriX (4): jampidampi, OmniEulogy, Spaghetticus, cDgCorazon jampidampi (2): Sylencia, TeMiL OmniEulogy (3): Mocsta, zarepath, StriX I’ve already presented justification for my behaviour here: + Show Spoiler + My justification for switching to StiX. This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess. I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever. When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options: - vote StriX - vote Omni - vote Jamp As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX. And also what I consider an important post on possible scum distribution here: + Show Spoiler + I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it. Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post. This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni. It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim. The three people up for lynching (TeMiL excluded) were: Omni, Jamp, and StriX). I think Jamp was an inferior lynch to StriX in every way (with the information available at the time). That Syl sat his vote on Jamp does not give us any information on him as he knew his vote would be meaningless. Sitting by yourself on someone that is not in contention is equivalent to a no-lynch, and this gives me a scummy read on him. He had the option to express a large degree of power over who got lynched between Omni and StriX, but declined this opportunity and went no-lynch. Weak… Omni was a more active poster, but from my perspective his meta is damn scummy even when he plays town. StriX’s vote on Omni was for survival, so did not really represent his read. That leaves Mocsta and Zare as the two people actually putting their reads on Omni. I completely excuse Mocsta, both because he’s bulletproof from lynches for now, and because his action actually represented his read. There was no wagon for Omni at the time, and by backing out of TeMiL he was not dissociating from an active wagon. There is no scum motive there that I can see. Zare’s motive is a little more… suspect. He jumps off TeMiL and straight onto Mocsta’s proposed bandwagon without justification: a straight mimic play. This play will almost guarantee Zare being town if Omni flips red. Until we have this information however, it reads as scummy, as he doesn’t offer any justification for his switch, and it doesn’t seem as if he cares who gets lynched. Combine this with him not posting an analysis and Zare is giving me some nasty signals. Analysis on the three people that voted on StriX with me is a little more difficult, as I am guilty of the same crime. Jampidampi was first to vote strix, I believe for both survival and because StriX’ play was genuinely scummy/lurky. Regardless, he did not move his vote, didn’t seem to manipulate the bandwagon, and did not OMGUS Corazons pressure. OmniEulogy posted a case on Strix and voted for him for completely legitimate reasons. Admittedly his wording preceding his vote was a bit muddled, which Jamp points out. I do not get anything from Omni’s vote. Corazon was the nail in the coffin for StriX. So long as nobody left the Strix wagon, there is pretty much no way that five votes will land anywhere else. If Corazon is scum, this would be a very bold move as he is taking responsibility for a mislynch. Regardless, Corazon is so active he is not to be pursued yet. | ||
Spaghetticus
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Thank Christ you managed to post a will on time, as I thought I still had 10-15 minutes, and Mocsta was a no show. | ||
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It's also got my analysis spoilered on the same post. I'm heading to the gym, I've been sitting here waiting for the NK for five hours. I'll probably head to the beach later as well, so my activity will go down in the next 5-8 hours. Mocsta did you have a mislynch analysis ready to go? | ||
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@Mocsta Omni's post you quoted was ridiculous, and made me epic mad. The fact that you decided to support it makes me both confused and furious. I removed myself from the math so that my point could not be discounted. If I included myself in the math it would be me claiming town. By excluding myself I was removing the temptation of a townie to ignore the logic in my post as it could be interpreted as me claiming town. Soft claiming town is terrible, or so I hear? I was doing the thinking for you, any town reading it should not be applying this math to me anyway, as I was the one that posted it. I was not weakening my position in anyone's eyes unless they were stupid enough to think town reads on myself were legit. It was a transparent play, I can expect this misinterpretation from Omni but not from you. WTF? | ||
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Mocsta I am confused as to what is happening in your dialogue with Sylencia, so I'll butt out and let this run it's course. When you want an explanation just holla. I hope the rest of you are reading the thread or sleeping, because this much activity after an NK is sort of unacceptable. We have a lot of information to sift through (more than ever before!), why would everyone be inactive? | ||
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- myself - Mocsta - Sylencia (without a lot of convincing) - TeMiL (though I may vote for him if we come to the conclusion that it's better for town) Which leaves: - Jampi - Zare - Omni I don't want to hunt Omni if I can avoid it, but if he's left alone I might make a case, depending on whether I'm busy with pressuring one of the other two. Lynching Omni does have the benefit of clearing Zare's name if he flips red. Who will you NOT be pursuing? Who is left? | ||
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Looking at the possible setups, there are only four: Goon + Roleblocker, Jailkeeper + Cop, five Townies 2 Goons, Cop, six Townies 2 Goons, Jailkeeper, six Townies Goon + Roleblocker, seven Townies In scenario one we have either a player that did not post night actions (TeMiL?), or a person not revealing that they were roleblocked. I'm not sure on whether it is well known if revealing a roleblock is a solid move in this setup (or whether it's a solid move at all). Omni you revealed immediately, do you have this information? I imagine that it is the right play, but I admit I don't have a good understanding of this part of the game. In scenario two Omni is lying, which probably means scum. This scenario is unlikely as it is bloody risky for a scum to do this just to flush out a blue role. In scenario three the jailkeeper might have read Omni as scum, and JKed him, but the more logical play would to be jailing defensively. This scenario is unlikely, as it would mean the JK is playing far less than optimally (there were only really three potential NK targets, where as there were six potential roleblockers. In scenario four the scum thought the best chance of stopping a blue action was by roleblocking Omni. Does anyone know of any slips Omni has made that would make him look blue? I haven't seen any. They may have thought him a likely cop check (though they don't know whether there is a cop). This scenario is unlikely. Interestingly, the town blue roles have more information than the rest of us (if any). A JK can rule out two and four, as well as know there is a 50% base chance of Omni lying if the JK was not the one that roleblocked him (the rest of us only have information granting a 25% base chance). I don't think a JK would jail Omni, as it's the wrong play. Therefore, it is likely that if we have a JK, he knows that Omni is lying. I don't think scum would think Omni is blue. This means that if scum did roleblock him, it was for other reason. I could be wrong on this. If anyone has seen blue slips from Omni, you need to factor this into your analysis of this situation. A cop can rule out scenarios three and four and also has a better base read on Omni's chance of lying. Either we have a bad JK, we have someone hiding the fact they were roleblocked, or Omni is lying. This analysis was on the fly, so if there are holes in it polease point them out. I don't think Jamp's analysis was bad, in fact the information he provided needed to be put down to get everyone less analytic on track. Mocsta you seem pretty grumpy, this is understandable but it won't help your play. | ||
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Okay so it doesn't seem like Mocsta was making the play I thought. I'll reveal. If you have your vote on someone and that person has no chance of being lynched, your vote is not actually doing anything. Functionally, it is the same as voting for a no-lynch, as everyone else will go an lynch someone without your input. When you stayed on jamp, there was no way he was getting lynched, and so not changing you denied us your input on who got lynched. This means we cannot blame you for a mislynch, it's complete disassociation from the actual lynch. Now that I think on it, that means if you flip scum you were probably happy with an Omni or StriX lynch, which would increase the town read on Omni. It does not mean that you are actually wanting a no-lynch. A no-lynch will hardly ever get off the ground in a newbie game. When I described your vote as the equivalent of a no-lynch, I probably should have said it was the equivalent of a no-vote. | ||
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Can you please quote the cop sentence in question? | ||
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And yes, if your voteswitch looked like a pure bandwagon you would have been grilled, but by speaking the truth (that your vote was otherwise redundant, and that you exercised as much control over the lynch as possible under the circumstances) town would be in a better position to assess you, and I at least would have found your response adequate. | ||
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Are we laying this to rest? | ||
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It looked like you were a scum trying to avoid having to continue posting. The only reason you're on my bullet-proof list is because if you are scum and continue to post a lot, you will slip and die. If you fail to maintain your own momentum, my perspective on you will change. I'm going to go browse filters for a while and try and figure out who I'm voting for. I can almost feel the scum laughter as town stagnate to an early grave. @Zare: I appreciate your life infringing on your game, but please make an effort to jump in as much as time will allow. From out perspective life excuses are pretty much wind, despite the fact they are often true. Any scum can claim life problems as an excuse to lurk, it's unverifiable. | ||
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##vote:TeMiL If TeMiL is still hovering over this thread I'd really like to hear his thoughts | ||
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Admittedly, it looks like this was his plan before he received his role. In the posts I read his writing was a little slack, but his grammar seemed better, and his posts were more thought out. Can someone have a quick read and give thoughts? TeMiL's XXXIV filter TeMiL's TL posts | ||
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I would like people not to shut this case down because of the potential OMGUS. Analyse it as of it were coming from someone that was not being voted by Mocsta. A scum would know that there are much easier ways to divert pressure from themselves than OMGUSing the person with the most town momentum. Your case from a glance seems to have both some decent points and some logical limitations. I've got a lot on my plate and I'd like to finish what I was doing before addressing your post. Your justification for removing your suspicions from Mocsta are even weaker. You only say By 'Mocsta' do you means someone else? | ||
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