EPTif so, the question then applies to Omni.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIV - Page 5
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
if so, the question then applies to Omni. | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Guys, there are 7 players remaining... 5 town.. 2 scum... if we lynch a townie on Day2, there will be 3 town, 2 scum on Day3.. which is essentially game over. The only way we can avoid lynching a townie is if you guys speak up more. Share your thoughts. I am taking a step back today, I think it is important we give everyone a chance to speak fairly, with being threatened. If you don't know where to start.. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=30#591 might be a good spot to look at for guiding questions. | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 06 2013 13:37 Sylencia wrote: I only gave the reasons why no lynch was bad to him. When I voted for him, it was a slight influence, as well as what I had also written, but as I just said before, I don't understand how not changing from Temil suggests no lynch. I am in/out heaps today, so maybe I didnt read it properly. The thing is to do with Spaghetticus. On January 06 2013 05:33 Spaghetticus wrote: When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. The key point being by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. What is your take on Spaghetticus and him detailing his final intention as to award a "no-lynch". (I think its quite contradictory, and I do not recall him stating a no-lynch was on the cards at any point in the game (for his vote) | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Post Count Summary Intent: To identify participants "flying under the radar" and not actively contributing. The intent is not to provide a quality check on posts That onus falls upon all of town individually. Session 6 From: 05-Jan: 2130 To: 06-Jan: 0800 + Show Spoiler +
| ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
| ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
If you dont want to play the game, have the respect and quit. I have sat here for over an hour, F5'n her and there for no fucking reason other than wasting my Sunday before having to go back to work tomorrow. ##VOTE: Jampidampi See you at lynch deadline. | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
All you did was state the obvious jampidampi. | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 00:03 Sylencia wrote: @Mocsta: You were annoyed that most of us were not on during the evening of tonight, and you placed a vote on Jampi. Was there a reason behind it, ... I want to know where this vote is coming from. On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote: See you at lynch deadline. Standing by this Sylencia. Until zarepath, TeMiL join the conversation. Im not bothering with this game anymore. It takes a lot of time and energy to play this, and so far, its been a total waste. If 2 out of 7 players are not going to contribute. That leaves us with 5 players... 2 being scum.. which is almost a MYLO situation. Sorry Sylencia for spitting the dummy, but right now I wish I signed up for TL Mafia LVIII instead, thats at page 150 already... | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 04:49 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta I think you have had enough time to think of this. So I ask again, do you still Omni is scum? If not what in his paly changed your opinion? Go fuck yourself and your tunnel vision. | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
I concur. In my last post during night1 i hinted towards omni being clear of my vote. Surprising an self proclaimed anlyst like jampi completely missed this.. hence my.vulgar attitude. Zareoath. Have u noticed jampi is doing his utmost to derail the thread convo? Even omni called him out on it. Jampi focus is purely to speculate setups. 1 a complete waste of time. And 2 an easy accomplishment for scum. Further. All his posts lack the detail he has promised and he only gives out information when asked. Another classic scum trait. Im sure.he will.counter by saying i gabe a list of 3 town reads.freely. But once again how.does summarising what evwryone knew aid the.scum hunt. he is merely.blending in. Reading the thread . He is also one of the initiators of the.strix vote off. If u feel the same i do. I suggest renforcing my vote to jampi. Btw written on phone | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 09:32 zarepath wrote: EBWOP to "Why I no longer think that OE is scum:" Because I"m convinced that his defensiveness/emotion is consistent to his play, that removed a chunk of my original suspicion on him for the attention he'd cast upon himself. In combination with the fact that he came out worse from D1 lynch than anyone else, I sincerely doubt his innocence. His case was a perfect bandwagon target for the mafia, and his general tone draws attention to himself in such a way that mafia could easily push for his lynching today. Therefore, I am convinced that OE is not likely to be scum. Great points other than the contradiction. "i sincerely doubt his innocence" Please if typo. It reads as a typo. | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
| ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 10:58 Sylencia wrote: ##Vote Temil Our discussion has gotten nowhere today, and at this rate, we have potentially 2 kills going down if Temil doesn't come. The worst thing would be if two townies just died at this point because that would actually just end the game right there. (Unless Temil gets replaced assuming he does not vote) If we are to prevent this, then we can actually cut our losses and vote for Temil, losing only 1 person who was already a detriment to town as it was. Sylencia, I appreciate you entering the fray and contributing your thoughts to this lack-lustre day. The reasoning you submitted for TeMiL (TeMiL rationale) was fantastic and a very good extension of my initial thoughts.(Mocsta TeMiL case) However, I have to respectfully disagree with you on this vote, as i think the window to vote off a "bad" townie has closed. This is based on the following: (1) if TeMiL is lynched and flips town, with the night kill, we are guaranteed to start Day3 with 5 players (3 town + 2 scum). This is instant MYLO situation. (2) The benefit of eradicating TeMiL Day 1 was because the chance of lynching townie was high (proven by Strix lynch), so we were replacing a high probability townie lynch with a guaranteed bad townie lynch. The Day 2 numbers outcome would be the same (5 townies + 2 scum) its just we would be left with 5 townies, not 4 + 1 bad townie. So even though I support(ed) the play of (2)... because of the outcome from (1) I think we can not afford to vote out a bad townie. MYLO with the current town atmosphere is instant game loss. The window of opportunity fort his gambit has closed. Caveat: If the town atmosphere was better, yes, I would consider supporting the TeMiL vote Day 2 P.S. Whilst TeMiL has not contributed significantly; and his actions are not telegraphed in advance - making him a loose cannon. I believe that his vote on Day1 was not made lightly. I think that his vote was sound, even though the rational presented was limited. i.e. based on the condition of the thread, I do not think a vote on jampidampi is unreasonable to suggest (Mocsta: jampidampi overview reasons to lynch), nor do I think it is the vote of a person who "blindly pinned a tail on the donkey" I am not asking you join me on jampidampi. You need to consider for yourself if you think his filter is scum motivated. I moreso ask that you reconsider the vote on TeMiL. He is an easy lynch bait target for mafia to jump on; and his lynching will result in a MYLO situation, potentially without a unanimously agreed scum target. The implication of TeMiL being lynched on Day2 is guaranteed loss of game for town | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Your post lists very good outcomes, and is very comprehensive. Well done. I had some further thought about your post, and noticed that you treat TeMiL as a 50/50 town.scum player. Considering that there are 7 players left, 2 are scum, 5 are town.. I think the probability should read 5/7 town, 2/7scum. If you have the time, could you please re-jig the maths, and let us know what the difference is. Will it still be favourable to town if we just lynch TeMiL? Also, I had a thought about the no vote situation, and regardless of replacement I am not sure if we can consider the situation of TeMiL scum, and we lynch scum = instant win. Because, if TeMiL is scum.. then all his actions have been pre-meditated and well considered. It would be completely out of character to follow this up with a mod kill. The chances are so close to 0% its not worth considering (in my opinion) | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Thank you for bringing some life to this otherwise stagnant Day2. I have constantly cried out for activity... and there.... it was. FINALLY.. a case to read. Even better it was specially attentioned to me. How quaint of you  an eye for an eye, or in mafia games, a vote for a vote,. jampidampi, with permission to speak freely...this Day2, you were the source of my greatest enjoyment... unfortunately... all things must come to and end... you see... I began to read the case; and my feelings of enjoyment diminished. Morphed into its place.. was hollow disapointment. I don't know what was a bigger waste of time... your attempt at a case, or my pressing of the F5 key for a refresh? Since I am still a gentleman at heart; I will not try to embarass you with a point-by-point detail of your "attempt at a case". Rather, I will throw some pointers for you, that you can use for your "bigger case later", I suspect still on me of course. Let us call this case 2.0 Mocsta: jampidampi case2.0 tips for improvement @jampidampi For your next case, may I suggest you the following:
Thus to conclude, I welcome your case 2.0. It will present an opportunity for me to dissect your thinking, and present "self-contributed" evidence to town on your scum behaviour(s). | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 13:11 Mocsta wrote: Sylencia. Your post lists very good outcomes, and is very comprehensive. Well done. I had some further thought about your post, and noticed that you treat TeMiL as a 50/50 town.scum player. Considering that there are 7 players left, 2 are scum, 5 are town.. I think the probability should read 5/7 town, 2/7scum. If you have the time, could you please re-jig the maths, and let us know what the difference is. Will it still be favourable to town if we just lynch TeMiL? Also, I had a thought about the no vote situation, and regardless of replacement I am not sure if we can consider the situation of TeMiL scum, and we lynch scum = instant win. Because, if TeMiL is scum.. then all his actions have been pre-meditated and well considered. It would be completely out of character to follow this up with a mod kill. The chances are so close to 0% its not worth considering (in my opinion) | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 15:34 Spaghetticus wrote: Oh, you are talking about lynching TeMiL and him being scum? That's not an instant win, but it would put it into town favour IMO. It would give us an extra day before lynchorlose, but not really give us any leads as to who is the second scum. It would still be a massive victory for town. Spag, may I be kind to direct to you to the below. On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I am highly analytical and loathe posting accusations that imply a reality I do not believe. I adhere to theory over empiricism, I am self-confessed, not much of a numbers man; I would appreciate with your analytical mind, if you could take the time to crunch the numbers, using the 5/7 theory, Sylencia was working on. Considering you only post comments you believe in, I assume you already crunched these numbers, when you said, it would give town a favourable chance It would only be natural to assume that right?I wasn't goign to ask, you being busy with RL and all.. but considering you had the time to post your response, figured you would be active enough to help out a non-numbers guy. | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
(1) I know there has been a wave of activity since your original post.. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=33#646 (2) To refresh, the whole reason I raised the 5/7 town, vs 50/50 town calculation is because you concluded that Town is in a favourable position by voting TeMiL; you also maintained your vote on TeMiL. When I did the math, I was taking a more simplistic approach But hey, Im a simple guy.[I am not concerned with no-vote condition, it is not guaranteed + getting a replacement anyways] So taking your logic and applying the absolute basics... if we lynch TeMiL: (and he votes) + Show Spoiler + Town (5/7) : 3-2, MYLO Scum (2/7): 4-1 (good position) 5/7 = 72% of MYLO situation (This is a general percentage that can be applied if we lynch anyone not Town) This can be interpretted as... we need to be very selective for Day2 lynch candidate.. if we choose wrong, there is a 72% chance of "Mis-Lynch and Lose" for Day3. Because I know I am town, the actual probabilities from my perspective is: + Show Spoiler + Town (4/6) : 3-2, MYLO Scum (2/6): 4-1 (good position) 4/6 = 66% of MYLO situation This is still unfavourable action for town, and thus, I can not advocate this path based on probabilities. Well, you might counter by saying.. lets gamble on the odds, and use the information we know (i.e. assumed town players). Well.. besides myself, i feel certain on 2 players being town.. 2 are null.. and 2 i have severe suspicions of (and have voted for 1 of those 2). If include my 2 town reads (and myself) the odds change to: + Show Spoiler + Town (2/4) : 3-2, MYLO Scum (2/4): 4-1 (good position) 2/4 = 50% of MYLO situation 50% odds are still unfavourable to town... Do we really want to put this game into a coin flip? The whole point of the scum hunt is make the odds for town >50%... Thus, I can not place a vote on TeMiL solely due to probabilities. I think the window of opportunity has passed to vote this way. I shall conclude, as I did the post where I defended TeMiL being lynched.http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=33#642 I am not asking you join me on jampidampi. You need to consider for yourself if you think his filter is scum motivated. I moreso ask that you reconsider the vote on TeMiL. He is an easy lynch bait target for mafia to jump on; and his lynching will result in a MYLO situation, potentially without a unanimously agreed scum target. The implication of TeMiL being lynched on Day2 is [ALMOST] a guaranteed loss of game for town | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
May I ask what you think of jampidampis case on me? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=33#656 Do you see merit in what he is advocating? | ||
|
Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 16:24 Sylencia wrote: This goes back to your original case of asking 'Do you want to bring Temil into that kind of situation?' If you don't mind, then voting someone else is the better option. If you do mind though, you'd have to consider the probability you win after keeping him to day 3. Completely know what you are saying here. I think its a situation that has to be evaluated Day3. I think for Day2, we have to try to eliminate mafia; at least we build up a safety day, (outnumber 4-1).. On Day3 with the safey day, if there isnt a strong scum read, and use the buffer to vote off TeMiL, and go into Day4 with MYLO. tl;dr For Day2, I think we have to vote a scum read. For Day3, voting TeMiL can be re-evaluated. | ||
| ||
