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On December 22 2012 01:02 Vivax wrote:Toad, you've been joking around about debears implying you had to be scum along with 3 others. What do you really think of him after all this Hickhack you've been doing with him? + Show Spoiler +Germans understand that word 
Posts like these:
On December 21 2012 06:32 debears wrote:
Lets not lynch wiggles his activity and fighting against sheeps makes me think more lilely town
##unvote
##vote zelblade
Unless anyone wants to join me with iamp
are troublesome and I'd gladly insta-lynch anyone posting something like that if I know him to be a decent player, which I don't.
Let's be honest here, a "sry got a bad feeling, won't vote Wiggles" without any more reasoning than that would have been better than that post.
Still think he's mafia over all. His reads are making a bit more sense result-wise + Show Spoiler +imo, obviously can't speak with certainty...
Although the reads are better than what he said yesterday I still don't like how he's getting them. Like I just said, the post I quoted above; his reasoning for not wanting to lynch Wiggles is utterly horrible.
Bad thing is that NK's are probably not going to help us figure out anything 
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On December 22 2012 01:27 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 01:16 Toadesstern wrote:On December 22 2012 01:02 Vivax wrote:Toad, you've been joking around about debears implying you had to be scum along with 3 others. What do you really think of him after all this Hickhack you've been doing with him? + Show Spoiler +Germans understand that word Posts like these: On December 21 2012 06:32 debears wrote:
Lets not lynch wiggles his activity and fighting against sheeps makes me think more lilely town
##unvote
##vote zelblade
Unless anyone wants to join me with iamp are troublesome and I'd gladly insta-lynch anyone posting something like that if I know him to be a decent player, which I don't. Let's be honest here, a "sry got a bad feeling, won't vote Wiggles" without any more reasoning than that would have been better than that post. Still think he's mafia over all. His reads are making a bit more sense result-wise + Show Spoiler +imo, obviously can't speak with certainty... , so we might want to have a look at that, especially if he survives the night with only 1 NK happening or 2 blatantly townish NK's instead of something that includes an WTF-NK. Although the reads are better than what he said yesterday I still don't like how he's getting them. Like I just said, the post I quoted above; his reasoning for not wanting to lynch Wiggles is utterly horrible. Bad thing is that NK's are probably not going to help us figure out anything Are you fucjing serious? You don't think the mafia is weak after a pretty much unopposed godfather lynch on day one.
What has that to do with what I just said?
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On December 22 2012 01:32 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 01:16 Toadesstern wrote:On December 22 2012 01:02 Vivax wrote:Toad, you've been joking around about debears implying you had to be scum along with 3 others. What do you really think of him after all this Hickhack you've been doing with him? + Show Spoiler +Germans understand that word Posts like these: On December 21 2012 06:32 debears wrote:
Lets not lynch wiggles his activity and fighting against sheeps makes me think more lilely town
##unvote
##vote zelblade
Unless anyone wants to join me with iamp are troublesome and I'd gladly insta-lynch anyone posting something like that if I know him to be a decent player, which I don't. Let's be honest here, a "sry got a bad feeling, won't vote Wiggles" without any more reasoning than that would have been better than that post. Still think he's mafia over all. His reads are making a bit more sense result-wise + Show Spoiler +imo, obviously can't speak with certainty... , so we might want to have a look at that, especially if he survives the night with only 1 NK happening or 2 blatantly townish NK's instead of something that includes an WTF-NK. Although the reads are better than what he said yesterday I still don't like how he's getting them. Like I just said, the post I quoted above; his reasoning for not wanting to lynch Wiggles is utterly horrible. Bad thing is that NK's are probably not going to help us figure out anything
let me reprhase: I don't like the reasoning you are providing for a lot of things you say/said earlier. Like the unvote on Wiggles. Like "Toad being lazy = Toad is mafia". Like saying I'm still probably mafia after the Wiggles lynch although you changed that one. Like saying iamP is mafia simply because he was after you (I don't think iamP is a shining beacon of townieness either btw, although it might have looked that way when talking to you).
The fact that the reads are better is enough to make me say I don't want you shot right now and take a closer look at you. I still think the best and by far most simple explanation is that you're just a mafia but saying it's out of the question that you're a misguided townie who tunneled like a mad man on d1 and therefor ruined your own game by throwing yourself off would be a lie. I'm considering those options right now.
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I made a Ven-diagram to explain the situation:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/pkw4k.png)
People who voted WBG early on might be a mafia-treat. WBG was the most serious alternative to Wiggles besides Zelblade.
Zelblade hasn't flipped yet but I mentioned that I can't imagine Wiggles and WBG both being mafia. Worst case would be wiggles = mafia, WBG = SK imo. Zelblade is still open, so that's why I only include the WBG votes.
Also because the one flipped mafia voted WBG and obviously it's in mafias interest to not have Wiggles lynched, even if WBG is SK because they don't know that either.
people who voted Wiggles late = the last 3 people imo. Could have added sciberbia if your definition of "late" is "exactly after majority has been reached" but I'd say that's too drastic.
Vivax might be getting bonus points for voting morbidius but that's just speculation as long as neither of them flipped.
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awwww. You spammed my beautiful ven-diagram away.
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On December 22 2012 02:43 Vivax wrote:
Toad...I HAD to write a read on Wiggles, I promised I would. Sorry if I found him to be scummy enough for the vote afterwards, but of what use would it have been to keep my vote on Morbidius?
If anything, the vote I delivered is the exact opposite of what mafia would have wanted.
I didn't include any read at all in my diagram. It was just completly objective looking at 2 mafiatreats given the situation:
1) voting WBG
2) voting Wiggles late
Both things mafia would have liked to do because they want someone other than wiggles dead / because they want to only switch to wiggles if it's really looking like he's going to get lynched.
No analysis beyond those two points, just old fashioned vote-analysis.
I'm in no way saying the both of you are mafia (because of it). I'm saying those circumstances look bad because you and morbidius happen to have done both.
We could include the "voted Wiggles early" category, which would make me look a bit better on that diagram and it would include Yamato+Palmar but there's really no reason to include town-reads in a voting-analysis.
About who's going to be shot: Yeah there's really no way anyone but Palmar's going to be shot unless Mafia is REALLY scared about a medic, but even if they are I don't see them going after any of the other alternatives.
There's really no wifom. If we got a medic that guy protects Palmar :p
And I'm really not scared about Palmar at all, even if he survives and someone else dies (unlikely) because Palmar is someone who's pretty easy to read as days go by. It's gotten harder ever since he changed his town-meta but that's the reason for saying "it's pretty easy" instead of saying "it's incredibly easy to read Palmar".
Palmar just can't play mafia. comparable to Sandroba.
+ Show Spoiler [wifom] +If it really is Wiggles + Palmar being mafia they would have bussed Palmar to give wiggles mass towncred and not the other way around because as I just said, Palmar is pretty easy to read as mafia beyond d2 or d3
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On December 22 2012 03:02 Promethelax wrote:
Ya, jailkeeper on palmar is the only right choice here. The joys of us only having JK and not Doc is also that if Palmar is scum (something I'm always paranoid about with strong players) we'll still Roleblock him.
Toad, along with your vote analysis implicating Viv and Morb do you feel it exonerates those early voters you talked about? yamato and Palmar and maybe yourself?
Yeah I do. - Yamato is the guy who claimed miller d1 so saying he's not town would be really far fetched if you look at the situation in total. The early vote on Wiggles is just another point towards that.
- Palmar is the reason Wiggles ended up as a candidate to begin with and Palmar nailed him.
- I was the guy who was responsible for the only real alternative (mind if I say: it happened before Wiggles became an option) and I stepped back from voting WBG and voted Wiggles instead. The guy who initiated votes on WBG (imo) unvoting WBG to vote Wiggles isntead is a pretty strong tell imo. But it's about me, so I'm obviously subjective on that matter.
I just don't see a reason why any of us should vote Wiggles the way we did at the time we did. I get that WBG is paranoid because of LI but just because I'm good as mafia doesn't mean I'm mafia because I did something that strongly points towards me being town...
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Oh and btw, inb4 people screaming "WOAH TOAD TALKING ABOUT TOWNREADS DURING NIGHT!".
I really don't care about that right now. As mentioned, Palmar is going to be shot most likely, there's no reason not to make people like myself or Yamato a target because we won't be shot.
EVEN if one of us ends up being shot, which is highly unlikely, I'd say it's a good deal to have Palmar around instead of Yamato or myself :p
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Hard to tell. Haven't really looked into their filter besides a realy quick look. I think I stated somewhere d1 that I like lynching people I played multiple games with d1 so I usually ignore people I never played with before early on and that's simply the case here.
From what I've seen it's Morb but I would categorize it as a gut-feeling right now.
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On December 22 2012 03:32 Promethelax wrote:
Feel free Palmar, but I'm town so its a waste of your time. What about me is dumb?
Toad, which players have you played with who are in this game?
Both of Zelblade and Prom,
I think I coached a game or watched a game with sciberbia but might be wrong on that one,
WBG,
iamperfection,
I think I coached a game or watched a game with Vivax but might be wrong on that one,
Wiggles,
Palmar.
I think that's it. It's actually quite a lot of people I haven't played with because I did that 2-3 month mafia pause and there's a lot of new guys I don't know. Makes me a sad Toad
I really hate judging people I never played with before, especially if they're new guys.
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We should give prom some time. Something like 24hours into d2 imo. He just replaced in, even during night and that's hard. I'd wait and see what's going to happen tomorrow.
The whole case on Zel was basicly "dude's a luker" which IS alignment indicating if we're talking about Zelblade but he apparently had some issues and it wasn't active lurking but being replaced out.
So yeah I'd say we should keep calm about him right now. Tunneling people like a mad man shows the worst side of the guy tunneling and should not be enforced. We don't want to have 4 parties tomorrow screaming "NO YOU SHUT UP, MY LYNCH CANDIDATE IS TEH BEST!" like a little egocentric kid, and that's something comming from me.
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On December 22 2012 08:24 Morbidius wrote:
For those who know the players here I'd like to ask: how experienced is Prome? He comes off as town but he seems a bit... Dumb.
why do you think he's dumb? I get that yamato and prom are having a pissing contest so I'd understand him saying something like that, not that I like it but if you want to say something like that you should usually get a little more into detail and explain why you think so. At least quote the post you're referring to...
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oh and I'd really love to hear some thoughts from Palmar before he dies, that is if he really dies tonight.
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wat? Screw you guys, gg
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On December 25 2012 04:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
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EPT
