EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 4
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 27 2012 17:26 cDgCorazon wrote: Convenient that the 5 people Spag called out as scum on D1 are STILL being accused of lurking? It is a truly disturbing sight to behold. 100% there is scum in at least one of these lurkers. Our job moving forward is to figure out who is scum and who is not. This. Even when someone finally comes out and gives us something, it will be quite the task trying to consider if they are finally coming out with their reads as town, or scum trying to make the final misdirection play. The town who may be among the lurkers are in fear that whatever they can bring to the table now will not be enough, and they fear getting mislynched, what with how we did on the first two days. So ironically while we are pressing them for substance, we cannot hope for much substance anyway. If they have been playing lazily, the task of catching up, and then stepping up to the plate, can be too daunting. Ultimately, the recent posting behavior of Sylencia and shz are minimally cooperative, and do not sway my read of them in either direction. We will have to try to ask the right questions and work from there. In terms of trying to stay out of attention, both have done so in equal measure. Sylencia has become quite quiet unless prodded, in contrast to his N1 and early D2. Shz had something going in late D2, but he has not followed up on it despite (or because of?) losing some of the heat on him after N2. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Let's try to take the questions in a different direction. Hypothesis: Chromaticity is scum. Discuss. Yes, this means to present arguments both for and against the hypothesis. Caution: this does not imply that I have a scum read on Chrom. He just happens to be interesting enough to build a discussion around. This one is fair game for open discussion, but I particularly want to hear what shz and sylencia have to say about it, seeing as they've commented on some aspects of Chrom's play before. FatChunk and OrangeRemi are also encouraged to chime in. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
The lynch is pretty much set unless we get some crazy swing going elsewhere, so I don't see that moving my vote would do anything here. Impending Kickstart modkill (if somehow not lynched) does not move me either direction. If he gets replaced, I feel it would not be as straightforward to figure out the replacement as it was with threesr/yamato, so I can live with this lynch for that reason. If kickstart flips scum, how everyone has reacted as time ran out would be useful for analysis over the night. If kickstart flips town, then ... wtf kickstart. shz, you're here. What of this: Could this mean that mafia is fine with that lynch? Which would mean we are wrong. Do you think anything has changed since yesterday? Among the posts that came in with <8 hours to deadline, which are possibly scum motivated? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Seriously, I hang around all day waiting for stuff, but all the shit actually happens in the last 8 hours before deadline, when I am asleep. =/ | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 08:42 Chromatically wrote: shz had no scumreads all of d2 and had no original scumreads all of d1. How is this town play? Everyone who's not switching to shz needs to answer this. The same can be said for others. Not a compelling argument in itself. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
shz is here, but obviously not likely to vote for himself. Aquanim is here. Who else have we got to work with? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 08:41 Chromatically wrote: Will there be a modkill or replacement for Kickstart? This is remarkably important. If no replacement, we should be looking to use our votes elsewhere. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 08:59 Aquanim wrote: AAAAND my other scumread jumps in GUYS THIS IS TOO OBVIOUS Reminder: maybe not *that* obvious. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 09:10 Aquanim wrote: I was panicking and posting the first thing that came to mind to stop anyone else switching to Shz  I was ready to vote Kick at XX:59, but with the tie vote rule, I decided to just sit here and sip my coffee instead. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 27 2012 18:37 cakepie wrote: So, lurkers have nothing much useful to say about other lurkers, not surprising perhaps. Let's try to take the questions in a different direction. Hypothesis: Chromaticity is scum. Discuss. Yes, this means to present arguments both for and against the hypothesis. Caution: this does not imply that I have a scum read on Chrom. He just happens to be interesting enough to build a discussion around. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 09:45 Sylencia wrote: Having a framer in play suggests there's a Cop in play, right? Hush! Seriously, framer without cop would be a bit bastard. I don't think a newbie game would be set up that way. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 09:16 cakepie wrote: I was ready to vote Kick at XX:59, but with the tie vote rule, I decided to just sit here and sip my coffee instead. Tbh I got scooped by the votecount with my final refresh. But sipping coffee sounds way more cooler.  Enough exuberance at the small victory. We are most likely at 6-2 now, and will be 5-2 tomorrow. @Chrom: scum mass switching from scum Kick to town shz would be incredibly bad play. In view of that - how strong is your scum read on shz now, after the failed switch? - other than Kickstart, OrangeRemi and FatChunk switched over to shz. Assuming only one of them is scum, who is the sheeping townie, and who is the scum? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 11:33 Chromatically wrote: Also consider: given that both Orange and FC both tried to get shz lynched, shz scum would mean that both Orange and FC are town (unlikely). Orange/FC fits much better. You haven't answered my second question: assuming scum is not so awfully bad as to all jump onto shz, and only one of Orange/FC is scum, who is the sheeping town, and who is the scum, and why? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
@Syl: still trying to figure out the possible setups? That should get you nowhere, unless you are scum pondering the existence of a cop/vig. Let scum worry about that. Come tell us what you think of the Kick/shz interplay. ----- @all anyone have anything to toss my way? I'll stick around a bit but may be gone for a stretch later. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
If both FC and chrom are misguided townies, what was Kickstart up to? How has he managed to misdirect both FC and yourself onto chrom's case? And who among the Kick wagon would you finger as the two likely scum, looking to gain town cred off of Kickstart's 'sacrifice' play? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 11:13 cDgCorazon wrote: 1. Realized that there was a window of opportunity to get Shz lynched, and if he flipped scum, all of the pressure would be off him because he voted off scum. 2. Realized that he might not get lynched and decided to actually try. Was not trying to bus, just trying to stay alive. I think you're overlooking some possibilities: 3: Kick's play is a calculated chaos play betting on the sheeping tendencies we have already seen the past two days. It enables massive WIFOM bombs, while perhaps part of the scumteam stays on the Kick wagon to keep distance and gain town cred, while townies make a fool of themselves. 4: (less likely) Kick's is scum buddy with shz, but his play is not a bus, nor an attempt to stay alive. Instead, it a calculated gambit: stick a lousy case on shz all of D2 without intent to bus, and then bring the vote on shz in order to clear shz from suspicion. But this would have been incredibly ballsy seeing how close we came to actually lynching shz instead, with Kick remaining under heavy suspicion -- it would have needed the last remaining scum to be very, very safe before scum would want to try something like that. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 12:13 Sylencia wrote: At this point the possible remaining scum teams I can see being feasible are 2 of Chrom, Orange and FC, with Orange and Fatchunk's play in the last half hour looking absolutely ridiculous, if they are both scum, I'd laugh pretty hard and how messed up this game became. 1. how would you order the three suspects? 2. What of shz? Earlier, you mentioned that his loyalty was still "up in the air": On December 26 2012 19:30 Sylencia wrote: The risk of voting out shz is that if he is town, we're really leaving ourselves vulnerable to scum manipulation in votes. The majority of the town has not really been active in choosing votes, there's just a lot of bandwagoning happening. shz, while he has been voting non-optimally, still gives us a reasonable chance of voting out scum if we find one, if he is town. The problem lies with his loyalty, which is up in the air, but I am honestly unsure of his status. If we leave in shz and he is scum, the reverse of what I mentioned just now happens, where he can easily manipulate the votes with the rest of the scum playing a bandwagon game, requiring only one extra vote to end the game. This can easily be done, and it's rather risky. Personally, I'd still consider Kick a higher priority simply because it's easier to tell by the end of the next day what shz is since he does participate in the discussions. Does kickstart's shz vote + the failed switch convince you that Shz is town? We've lynched kickstart, but shz's "non-optimal" voting may still be a liability as town, or mask his intentions as a bandwagoning scum. How would you assess his participation in D3 discussions, notwithstanding the failed wagon on him? | ||
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