EPTParanoia Mafia - Page 3
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Japan10647 Posts
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I'm like 90% sure DYH is town. I don't find the tone of his posts scummy and I don't see anything that he's said that would be advantageous from a scum position. He's said too much and his push on Xatalos seemed very genuine. If he's scum he's done a very good job at faking contribution, and I don't think that's very likely, seeing as he brought up very good points about Xatalos and was one of the few players who I thought was genuinely pushing a target. I haven't looked into his meta, though. As for BH he's hard to read but I'm fairly certain he's scum. At no point has he given a real reason for anything he's done. I've repeated myself several times over this so if you want more just check out my most recent exchange with him. I'm also pretty much in accord with what Keirathi said about him. | ||
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On December 03 2012 06:53 Blazinghand wrote: One little objection I'd like to throw out just for you to chew on though is that if I were scum there's no real reason I'd swap from DYH to DP in the final seconds of D1 to save DYH and lynch DP unless DYH was also scum. seeing as DYH is probably also town, and scum don't give a fuck about killing townies, I never understood how this argument is supposed to even mean anything. Switching between two townies makes no difference to scum. | ||
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I'll be back later when I can actually form a coherent post. | ||
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As I said earlier, I think we should consider ShiaoPi as a lynch candidate. I also thought that we should consider Dandel/sandro today but based on sandro's contributions so far I don't think that's a good idea. If sandro continues being useful I'm inclined to call him town; he's remarkably easy to catch as scum. I wouldn't mind killing BH but I have an inkling he's just being dumb. Clearly I should've erred on the side of "marvel is saying stupid stuff about DP" instead of "marvel is scum because of how he can't see DP is town." (and once again I should've trusted my earlier read) The tl;dr reason for why I think we should consider ShiaoPi is this: On December 02 2012 05:33 VisceraEyes wrote: Shiao is.......I want to wait on Shiao. At least a day. Maybe tomorrow. I'm not really reading Shiao as scum right now. Also note I'm less willing to lynch BH and Zealos given how some events unfolded and this: On December 02 2012 05:33 VisceraEyes wrote: As it stands, I'm willing to lynch inside [Zealos, Dandel, Blazinghand] today. In that order. ##Unvote ##Vote: Zealos Of note is that VE's only mentions of Dandel came in this post, which make it entirely plausible that VE was simply throwing forward Dandel's name to distance himself from a scumbuddy. His only mentions of Shiao also come in this post. In general scum ignore some of their team and thrust some others into the limelight. It serves to hedge both bets; one that they can potentially bus, and the other that they can preserve their team. Almost every scum does this, and I don't think VE is any exception to that. While he mentions Shiao and Dandel only in these posts, he mentions other players (such as Zealos, whom he actually voted for) in other posts and multiple times with at least cursory reasoning. In addition he pushed dabears fairly aggressively, as if he was looking for people to bandwagon with him on dabears. That makes me feel like it's unlikely dabears is scum (although I already had a town read on him anyway) and I think it strengthens the idea that VE interacted more with townies than with his fellow scum. Anyway, a lot of this is connection-based, but given that these players have been flying under the radar, there isn't much else to put on the table with respect to their play anyway. To rehash what I said earlier about Dandel/sandro; since sandro seems to be helpful, let's leave him alive. His presence has caused my read of him to improve, since Dandel literally didn't do anything at all. If sandro is indeed town he's our best player anyway. Of the remaining players I think LazerMonkey also deserves attention. Off the top of my head I can't think of any strong positions he's taken all game, and that's not something you generally note about townies. (curiously, VE never mentions LazerMonkey once, unless you count an indirect mention of an observation I made of Lazer) ##vote ShiaoPi | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
to lend credence to my idea that VE was more willing to interact with townies than scum, note these cursory/sort of nebulous things: If you ctrl-f "marv" in VE's filter, you get the most hits out of anyone else in the game: 23. Ace: 21 (24 minus 3 occurrences of "ace" in a larger word) bugs: 15 blazing/bh/blz: 22 Xata: 14 DYH/doyou: 11 Zealos: 7 shiao/shaio: 5 austin: 5 LazerMonkey/Lazer: 2 Dandel: 2 MrZentor/Zentor/Mr: 0. I find it funny that this is almost directly correlated with the read I had on each player. | ||
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Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies. | ||
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On December 04 2012 01:40 Keirathi wrote: I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched. At least that's what I did in my only scum game. maybe bad scum do, cause that's fucking stupid. | ||
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On December 04 2012 02:02 Keirathi wrote: So what do good scum do? Ignore their partners? Give them town reads? Neither of those are very optimal either and can just as easily be picked up on. ?? We're talking about d1, when a confirmed scum was under no pressure at all. People don't bus just for the hell of it. When they do, they get caught later because they sacrificed too much of their team to live. Think about it, if someone gets enough cred for bussing early, people will question why they're alive later. It's just not worth it for scum to bus so early. | ||
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That's not that out of the question considering that this game is 15 players. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [dota] + What DOES matter is that I just went 12-2-27 as invoker and still lost. This game is like a process of elimination right now. We have established several players as town and basically we just need to kill based on the flips we saw last night. It's that simple, really. I find it odd that BH is not around and talking, but certainly he has time to do so. Also seeing as sandro agrees with me it probably means shiao is scum lolol (<3 sandro scumhunting abilities) | ||
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On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote: (1) We all know that WBG raged at his team, went afk in fountain with Exort invoker, and stole all those kills/assists with Suntrike. They were too busy raging at each other over why PA kept running in LOL that and complaining we didn't have enough disables what with me casting sheep + cold snap + deafening + euls + tornado + ice wall every fight lolol (also euls sunstrike + meteor + blast combo is sexy) On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote: (2) I'd like to hear more from you concering folks that aren't ShiaoPi or VE. I got not problem with you sitting back D1, but short of other claims it looks like you or sandro or DYH would be the likely mafia targets tonight. For instance, you wanted to pressure these folks: I haven't played with MrZ. I know he has a bit of a reputation. I've found him pretty clear and logical this whole game. Does that strike you as odd, or do you have a problem with that? Or does it make you think he's town? Do you still want to pressure him? Zealos hasn't posted since partway through D1. You brought him up a little in relation to VE, but what do you make of his actual posts. I didn't like them D1 when talking to LazerMonkey, BH found them townie, but you haven't said anything about the actual posts that he did make, which is all we have to go off of. I don't like Zealos's posts, that's why I attacked him d1 and considered him scum. I have him somewhere in the neutral zone because the VE interaction makes him less likely to be scum. And it isn't all we have to go off of, we have a flipped scum and cop. That counts for a lot more than just a given person's posts. | ||
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why, as scum, would I purposely put myself so against the guy who claimed cop, knowing my team would then shoot him, making me look terrible? Can you answer that for me? + Show Spoiler + I'm going to take a wild guess that you'll pull the WIFOM card on me here's a reason I'm not answering you: it's a fucking waste of time. I don't find scum by telling you that you're wrong. I'm not threatened by your accusations because they aren't substantiated and I don't think anyone else is dumb enough to believe you. I am very sure you are town for exactly the same reasons Erandorr was town in Mad Men. You're just too loud and tunneling too hard to be anything but a misguided townie. So, why should I fall for the bait and try to reason with someone who I know is already convinced I'm scum? No matter what I'll say, your bias will lead you to calling me scum. Therefore it's almost fruitless for me to acknowledge your existence. Now that I've gotten that out of the way, I'm going to go back to ignoring you until you come up with something reasonably intelligent. | ||
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If you can't see where that logic falls on its face then yes, you are indeed so biased that I was correct in ignoring you. Why would I make the same mistake twice? On December 04 2012 06:59 debears wrote: EBWOP and it hasn't made u look terrible. Everyone has town reads on you o.O you say that as if it was foreseeable. | ||
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On December 04 2012 07:00 debears wrote: WBG what was your read on DYH heading into lynch before the claim? didn't really have one, since I didn't look into his posts on d1. I think I read his posts more carefully after BH said he found DYH to be scummy. My concern was more with why people were ignoring other players such as Lazer, Zealos, etc. (all the lurkers/coasters) and why BH + marv would ever think DP was scum. | ||
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On December 04 2012 07:34 debears wrote: Why didn't you look into his posts when he was one of the top two vote getters? I did, and I thought marv was scummier. | ||
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didn't really have one, since I didn't look into his posts on d1. I think I read his posts more carefully after BH said he found DYH to be scummy. | ||
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