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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I don't like this at all and I'm not dropping this case until people start to realize that he is likely to be a goon after all. It's still early D2 so I'll get some time to consider other players so please don't try to shush by stating that a BH lynch is not going to happen. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
His play makes him likely to be scum. But I understand that it doesn't seem possible for him to be scum. My point is that's just it, it doesn't seem likely! | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Would he be a good lynch for d3 or d4 ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 16 2012 18:49 Clarity_nl wrote: I have issues, okay? I think I misunderstood this post. You didnt mean reading issues right ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 16 2012 13:05 Z-BosoN wrote: Djodref, I want to hear your every thought. First off, why are you voting bh? I´m not sure about your reasoning. Do you agree with my post on the likelihood of scum being on my wagon? What do you make of that assessment? Also, besides blazinghand, who else would you say is scum, and why? Ok, I think it is a good time now to share my thoughts. Regarding my BH vote, I think that it is important for everyone to realize that it is possible for him to be scum. I don't want people to discard a BH lynch because his jailkeeper claim is undisputed and because he lynched Hapahauli. At least, I want him to be considered as a lynch candidate, hence my vote. Now I understand that it's unlikely that we lynch BH today but I'll keep on promoting his lynch. We have already 2 confirmed scum on your wagon when you have 8 votes 5 minutes before lynch time. If they wanted to push a mislynch on you, there was no need of a third scum. It's true that nobody switched back to you when people started to vote Hapa but some people were not present and/or not able to react in time. Regarding the players on the Hapa wagon, I don't see why they should be automatically town as BH and debears seem to think. Hapa lynch was unlikely to happen when you look at the situation 5 minutes before the lynch and it could have been a smart for a scum player move to jump on the Hapa wagon at this point (because I think that Z-bo would have flipped town) and to cast a distance vote on Bowser, if you were thinking that this wagon was going to fail anyway (as it should have been, imho). Now here are my thoughts on the remaining players Blazinghands Top Scumread I want the town to consider at least as a lynch candidate for today. S&B Scumread Given his D1/N1 play, I'm not opposed to a S&B lynch right now, even if he has not my preference. Nevertheless, I didn't have time to look really carefully at his filter nor the cases against him and that's the first thing I'm going to do after I finish this post. I think I'm going to have a lot of opportunities to discuss his case today and to reevaluate my read on him. DarthPunk Townread, not planning to spend some time on him today
Clarity Back to null read, need to look at him closely today I like Clarity posts and case so far but I've also noticed that he was against a Crossfire lynch after Crossfire case against BH and he tried to convince people not to swicth their votes at the last minute. Hopeless Confirmed town Confirmed vig at 95%, I'll reconsider if he survives until a LYLO situation or if we have a SK kill. Iamp Null read, need to evaluate him I didn't take the time to look at iamp yet. Nothing stroke me in his posts when I was out of the game but I'm not considering this as a good sign. I need to look at his filter today. Kickstart Town read, not planning to spend some time on him today Newbie town read on Kickstart so far. I've been quite good at these kind of reads so far so I'm not planning to spend some time on him yet. Z-Bo Top Townread, not planning to spend some time on him today
debears Slight Townread, need to reevaluate I globally liked debears participation and contribution when I was reading the game (i.e not playing). Nevertheless, I don't like how he states that all the players on the Hapa wagon are town. I don't like how he defends BH neither. Need to re-evaluate. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
This is your second game right ? So we just have your previous scum game for comparisons  I had a slight town read on you because you don't have the same behavior than last game, I've mentioned it in this post + Show Spoiler + On November 16 2012 13:20 Djodref wrote: Let me start with some quick post about my town reads. Hopeless is as close as possible to be a confirmed vig. I have played with him in Looney and I don't feel him being very different from the town Hopeless I know. His breadcrumbs make sense and I don't see the SK wanting to shot one more scummy player after bowser lynch on D1. Town reads on zbo and DP confirmed by the fact that they were likely to be mislynches pushed by the mafia. Slight town reads on Clarity and debears because I know them both quite well and I didn't get bad vibes from their posts so far. Newbie town read on Kickstart. I didn’t look into his filter much because. So I usually get good reads on newbies I was reading the thread before replacing but not following it very closely. I need more time to check iamp and you... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 17 2012 00:08 debears wrote: Because of process of elimination makes you a top target. You and snb are my top targets. Djo I find you town @ debears Even if I agree with your conclusion, your logic is wrong because thrawn was not around the lynch deadline. You cannot guess (and me neither) what he could have done in reaction to the sudden Hapa wagon. Were you sure that Hapa was going to get lynched when you switched your vote on him ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Again, poor wording from my part. I understand why you don't consider likely for him to be scum given the circumstances. But I want you to focus on his play rather than the circumstances because he looks very scummy apart from this. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 17 2012 00:26 Hopeless1der wrote: I think we're at 9v1 with no SK, and setup speculation says there's at least 1 more blue besides myself, Z-bo and BH (assuming we're all telling the truth). Yes, I count miller as a blue. Unless a townie claims the block on BH, it means scum have Kamek remaining and C9++ requires 0, 1, or 2 "T's" to have Goon, Roleblocker, Godfather (and possible SK). That means 5 'rolls' went towards blue's. I don't know how that ends up working out since Vig's are all one-shot and doctors are JK's instead, but I think there is at least 1 unclaimed blue. I don't want to mass claim because its not likely to get us much more to work with. I'm pissed that I can't ask thrawn why he was being un-thrawny. He specifically referenced the fact that Hapa and Marv should have been on his case and now they're all gone. I need djo to get off of BH for a moment and find scum elsewhere. He seems to be barking at clarity for the moment, so I'll see how that goes. My point is that we don't know how many "T's" we have got for this specific game but that the mafia team would have had a better idea of it given their roles. I can imagine that a fake jailkeeper claim is less risky from a goon if the mafia team is goon, goon, godfather. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
@ Clarity This is your second game right ? So we just have your previous scum game for comparisons I had a slight town read on you because you don't have the same behavior than last game, I've mentioned it in this post [spoiler][QUOTE]On November 16 2012 13:20 Djodref wrote: Let me start with some quick post about my town reads. <snip>[/QUOTE] @ Clarity Can you confirm me that is it indeed your second game and explain me why you don't like last minute shenanigans ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 16 2012 22:51 Djodref wrote: @ Clarity This is your second game right ? So we just have your previous scum game for comparisons <snip> @ Clarity Can you confirm me that is it indeed your second game and explain me why you don't like last minute shenanigans ? And regarding the fact that we have 3 scums, I'm pretty sure that it's the standard for this setup. It's a very safe assumption which we can work with ^^ Regarding the 8vs1vs1thing, this is the main reason why I would have difficulties to believe in a SK Hopeless. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 17 2012 00:50 Clarity_nl wrote: They don't end well. I like sticking to solid logic rather than let emotions make decisions for you, and last minute shenanigans are just that, emotional decisions. This would be my third game, kinda. I got modkilled for sending Rad a PM in my first game. Yeah but this creates confusion and it can be a great opportunity to catch scum. I think it would have been more difficult to find you last game if not for the Cheesecake situation which was also last minute. I think it's difficult for scum to fake emotional last minute decisions (I personally think that intuition and rationality still take a small part). How do you think we found you last game ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 17 2012 00:58 debears wrote: Who would be sure? All I knew is that 3/4 others said they were down to switch right away and we all did immediately. My point is that it was not enough at that time to change the outcome of the lynch. Kickstart switch was totally unexpected (@Kickstart - I know you made a case against Hapa during D1 but you didn't show any intention to switch at that time, correct me if I'm wrong). If one scum was in the early voters, it was a calculated risk for him and not such a big one. There was a risk to lynch Hapa but the reward was not to be on Z-Bo wagon for after a possible green flip. I think our view differ so much because I didn't experience it live. I was not involved in the game at that time and I have only a cold thread to refer to. But still I think you shouldn't use such a hard logic regarding who lynched (or not saved) Hapa. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 17 2012 01:01 debears wrote: Djo, if thrawn was scum, and hapa was gonna get lynched, I don't see any reason for him not to be there to switch his vote. However, yes if thrawn was just not around as scum that is plausible. I find it unlikely but plausible Thrawn was around, my bad. I didn't see his post in all the spamming stuff Anyway, I have a good reason for any scum to not save Hapa at this time. Imagine you are scum, one of your teammate is under a lot of pressure (something like a last minute bandwagon against him at the end of D1), do you want to jump into the flames to save him and be the first one to be lynched when town finally flips him (because town eventually will if your partner escaped a lynch in extremis) or do you want to stab him in the back ? I know you are the kind of "jumping into the flames" scum (Dandel Ion hard defense in NMM XIXX, I remember ) but you know that it was bad play... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I've eliminated the possible "bad guys" setup that we can face with one goon and one GF already dead. Scum Roles TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability < 1% TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 16,5% TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability around 16,5% T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 5,5% 0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability < 1% To sum up, it is quite likely that we have still a role blocker or a SK in this game, 3 times more likely than to have both of them. I didn't realize that it was possible to have only 2 mafia players but if we have one, it's a role blocker for sure. We have roughly 57% chances to have a mafia role blocker against 43% to not have one. So, my conclusion is that, if BH is fakeclaiming, there was no way for him to know if the fakeclaim was "safe" or not. I was wrong on this point. His claim is not reasonable from a town point of view but even less than from a scum point of view. I'll try to get the probabilities to have a jailkeeper with us in the different configurations. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 17 2012 03:54 Djodref wrote: Guys, I have done more research about the C9++ setup (Keir confirmed me that he used the same "T's" to get the mafia roles) and it turned out that I was wrong. First of all, a goon, goon, GF team cannot exist and the mafia team can only guess the number of power roles but not their specificity with the data they have at their disposition (i.e. the composition of the team). I've eliminated the possible "bad guys" setup that we can face with one goon and one GF already dead. Scum Roles TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability < 1% -> in that case, no JK TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 16,5% -> in that case, 19% chances of a JK TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability around 16,5% -> in that case, 40% chances of a JK T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 5,5% -> in that case, 46% chances of a JK 0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability < 1% -> in that case, 52% chances of a JK To sum up, it is quite likely that we have still a role blocker or a SK in this game, 3 times more likely than to have both of them. I didn't realize that it was possible to have only 2 mafia players but if we have one, it's a role blocker for sure. We have roughly 57% chances to have a mafia role blocker against 43% to not have one. So, my conclusion is that, if BH is fakeclaiming, there was no way for him to know if the fakeclaim was "safe" or not. I was wrong on this point. His claim is not reasonable from a town point of view but even less than from a scum point of view. I'll try to get the probabilities to have a jailkeeper with us in the different configurations. I've added the probabilities for a jailkeeper in the possible different setups that we have. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
It's quite a risk to take. I still don't like BH play at all but I understand better why we shouldn't lynch him today. I hope someone else find the setup speculation interesting ^^ ## Unvote | ||
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