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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII - Page 51

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 05 2012 18:28 GMT
#1001
Ugh phone typing that so it took longer than the roleclaim. ##unvote
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 05 2012 18:29 GMT
#1002
Also I did consider to check Lesrah then Z-Boson on N2. Hence my numerous posts to ask about how Lesrah was going to be handled. Please notice how I used the bold font to designate the targets of my checks.

You can find it on Lesrah here

On October 02 2012 11:23 Djodref wrote:
Hello guys !

Just a quick post from work.

It looks like either Alsn or debears are going to be lynched today. I'm totally fine with that because they are actually my scumteam right now. I'd prefer a debears lynch because of my cases against him so my vote is on him right now but I guess we are going to end up lynching Alsn for the following reasons:

  • Association with kush
  • Clustering the thread without scumhunting
  • Lack of commitment

Also DarthPunk has made an early vote him so I'm pretty sure town is gonna sheep on him at the end. But please don't do this ! Try to come out with your own decisions
Nevertheless, I might need to switch my vote to secure a lynch on Alsn. If so, I'm going to do it 5 hours before the deadline when I go to bed.

Also I'm seriously promising you here a better post regarding why I suspect Alsn.

Now regarding corrosion, I think he is the wagon mafia is going to try to push today so please take your time to read his filter twice (not so long ) with the following glasses:

  • He is an evil scum !
  • He is newbie town ^^

And decide for yourself

See ya !

PS: I'm hoping for Lesrah to catch up quickly


and on Z-Boson here (I don't use @ when I do my breadcrumbs)

On October 03 2012 22:55 Djodref wrote:
Z-BosoN

Are you in or are you too much shacked by Alsn death ?
You have a personal history with debears iirc ^^


At this point, after all the WIFOM arguments with debears, I was wondering who would benefit the most from an elaborate bus so I wanted to check Z-Boson but I gave up the idea because it was stupid.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 05 2012 18:30 GMT
#1003
Well here are my lynch rankings right now based on a legit believed rc

1) Omni (if he shows up)
2) Me
3) ??? (Stutters, Z-Bo, SS
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 18:30 GMT
#1004
Interesting roleclaim, and I agree unless we have a counterclaim it is more than likely legit.

Home now, so i'll take my vote off omni for now.

##Unvote
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 05 2012 18:33 GMT
#1005
Also, the rc came early enough for us to gather ourselves and make an informed decision. It makes alot of sense.
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 05 2012 18:34 GMT
#1006
I would like to add that you shouldn't take any of my results for granted. I'm quite sure that we have a gf and that they are irrelevant.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 05 2012 18:35 GMT
#1007
Yeah I would agree with that Djo, either that or a framer.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
October 05 2012 18:36 GMT
#1008
On October 06 2012 03:34 Djodref wrote:
I would like to add that you shouldn't take any of my results for granted. I'm quite sure that we have a gf and that they are irrelevant.


Nah, they're not irrelevant. Anyone checked is less likely to be scum.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 05 2012 18:39 GMT
#1009
@SDM

How so? I could see it if we were talking 2 scum left. Is this under the assumption that there isn't a godfather and instead a framer or goon lefT?
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 05 2012 18:39 GMT
#1010
I know but I don't want you guys to even think about the possibility of a framer. I've personally wasted a lot of time speculating about the validity of my checks so it would be better that we forget them.

thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
October 05 2012 18:40 GMT
#1011
Vote Count!

If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.


debears (1) - Djodref, Djodref, Z-Boson
Omniscient4983 (0) - RemedySC, Djodref, Sonic Death Monkey, Z-Boson
Z-Boson (1) - Shady Sands
Djodref (1) - Z-Boson, Stutters695, debears, Sonic Death Monkey

Not Voting (5) - Stutters695, Omniscient4983, Sonic Death Monkey, debears, RemedySC

With 8 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Currently, nobody is set to be lynched! If you see that your vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 1 hour 20 minutes left to vote! Deadline is at 20:00 GMT (+00:00)
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 05 2012 18:41 GMT
#1012
Don't start this, I'm serious ^^

Let's just take for granted that we have a lonely godfather left
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 05 2012 18:45 GMT
#1013
@Stutters

I don't want to lynch you, I want to lynch debears <3

If Omni flips as a townie, I would say that either Z-Boson or debears is scum.
But I also think that you would be in a perfect position as a scum right now. Your timing is far too perfect !

@Z-Boson

I feel sorry for the efforts you put in your case but I didn't feel threatened until Stutters came back into the thread.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 05 2012 18:45 GMT
#1014
framers can't frame themselves and its pretty unreasonable to expect a framer to guess your check twice in a row. Thus regardless of a framer or GF at least one of your checks is reliable. If it's a framer I'd say it's likely they're both reliable but not 100% obviously.

Personally I wouldn't mind seeing debears or z-bos flip given the short time to change
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 05 2012 18:46 GMT
#1015
Alright guys. I have to go take my midterm. I will check after to see where votes are headed. I'm guessing I'll be the one lynched. In that case, I am leaving my thoughts on Z-Bo from looking at his case in terms of meta and this game.

Reasons I feel he is scum:
1) He avoided the kush case d1 until the kush "I don't care implosion".
2) He defended kush himself by saying the slip wasn't really a slip and that meta is bad to use for cases
3) He attacked me for "soft defending kush" despite him actually defending kush
4) He wanted me lynched instead of kush although he said he felt like kush was scummier (after early statements saying kush wasn't that scummy)
5) Wanted me lynched over Alsn although he felt Alsn was way scummier (He said along the lines of 10X more scummy than me although he was so indecisive all d2 about us)
6) He said he would make sure I got lynched d2 despite kush's alignment, and especially so using his mod warning association case.
7) D2 comes and he wants to stop the arguments between us for a while
8) D2 he says he will get me lynched d3 no matter what Alsn flips
9) Now, d3 is here and he instead wants to push someone else, suddenly seeing the townie motivation in my previous posts and using meta to defend me, although I don't see a situation in which I don't get lynched.
10) His main argument against me day one was inconsistency on who I scumhunted and then consistency in my arguments against them. That's the same exact reasoning I used on thrawn last game!!!!!!!! Also, he noticed that kush and Alsn didn't actually do scumhunting, yet he saw me as scummier.

Let me break up the scum and townie motivations as I see them
1-4) Townie - He actually thought his case was that great against me and thought I was actually scum.
Mafia - Lesrah was a no show. Kush is under heat. He doesn't have to directly support kush. Instead, he can push another lynch candidate. Finds it too hard, and instead bandwagons before the deal is sealed
5-8) Townie - His opinion changed quickly each day as he saw better evidence against others and realized he was wrong
Mafia - He wants to keep me around as a fall back and seem like he is decisive and after someone. He wants to use me as an excuse for the nks til he can find someone else
9) Townie - Sees that I most likely am not mafia and will actually try to help me (If I see a in depth case actually defending me I would more likely believe this)
Mafia - Wants town cred knowing that I will very likely be lynched.
10) Townie - Confirmation Bias
Mafia - Attack an easier active target with a believable case (set me up when kush did the "I saved you debears" and "scumteam 4 lyfe"

Btw - It's pretty obvious that kush was trying very hard to set me up. I have been thinking of why. I have to read through the whole d1 before I come to my main conclusion on that.

I will probably look over this list later to see if it really still says which is greater.

In terms of meta, I'm still having trouble noticing stuff (maybe I don't really know what to look for - any suggestions there?)

As town in LVII -
1) was much more indecisive.
2)Addressed everyone all the time it seemed.
3) Made only a couple of big cases.
4)Didn't use much red text at all (should I be considering that in meta reads?) and definitely not repeatedly on the same person.
5) He did get on Hapa early d1 for defending someone else (not saying that I'm hapa but maybe I'm on the right track )
6) He stresses not scumhunting in his main cases (in other words, doesn't worry so much about who and the exact basis of the arguments as long as they are sound)
7) Later in the game, he starts defending others more often
8) His main concern is differentiating between bad town play and scum play (his main concern this game has been looking only really at mafia motivations and disregarding townie motivations)
9) Got defensive when called out for being suspicious without reasoning.

As scum in NMM XXIV
1)He's aggressive with calling other's scum (using red text with that)
2) He says he wants reads shared (he asked me for all of mine this game)
3) He didn't want to bus
4) He read too much into posts, trying to nitpick and exaggerate arguments (kinda like this game with SDM early and then the emotions wording with Alsn)
5) His flip flops on his top scumreads (saying one moment they are confirmed scum then saying they aren't that scummy)
6)He worried about the reasoning behind nk (none of that this game)
7) Main scum reads were on inconsistencies/those playing badly (sounds like my case)
8) He makes long posts but has little substance in them
His makes a clear effort in calling a person scum in these posts. For instance, saying scumslip? Is he scum wanting us to believe that? (does the same in his main case against me)
9) Gets defensive and flames when he is accused (sounds like him after I made an early case on him. He immediately tried to discredit me)

This was alot of research. But I feel like he has mixed his town meta with his scum meta well. That, and the fact that I've been suspicious of him all game, is driving me nuts. There is both scum and town motivation is his posts, and he is following patterns from both games.

Add on to this, in his scum game he wasn't quite as invested in terms of time. However, he had 2 other scum with him til late in the game. In this game, mafia would have to be active to keep mislynches open.

Also, about SS

I thought about the motivations behind corrosion asking for a replacement. It doesn't make much sense from a mafia perspective. He said he didn't have time to read through everything. A townie has to read through everything. It would make sense for a townie to ask for a replacement. A mafia, however, does not actually have to read everything in detail. They can take quicker looks at stuff and keep the game going on as before.

And finally,

SDM is my strongest town read besides Djo at this point. I'd say trust those two to the rest of town
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
October 05 2012 18:50 GMT
#1016
On October 06 2012 03:39 debears wrote:
@SDM

How so? I could see it if we were talking 2 scum left. Is this under the assumption that there isn't a godfather and instead a framer or goon lefT?


If you work with probabilities it means the chance is lower, but of course you never know. Kind of like when you play poker and hit a pretty good hand, the chance of you winning is higher but you never know. Worst analogy ever.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 05 2012 18:51 GMT
#1017
If suggest throwing your vote on z-boson just in case you don't make it back. Worst case nothing happens/you can change it but it gives us another swing option if we decide on him.
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 05 2012 18:52 GMT
#1018
Honestly you guys made me stay up until 4am. I'm kinda wasted now.

Given the behavior that Z-Boson has just shown and him voting me, I would like to OMGus him. But you and shady are not clean. I think town can afford a no lynch and we are going to get the info of Omni flip anyway.

What do you guys think ?
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
October 05 2012 18:59 GMT
#1019
The town can afford a no lynch now but it can afford one later as well and the later we do it the more information available when it comes time to make a decision if we're put in a 2v1. Of course it should be pretty much expected there is a medic at, this, point (vig should have claimed after n1 if he was shot) so in that way there is the option of possibly starting the day over of we got a save tonight.
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
October 05 2012 18:59 GMT
#1020
well shady is not here and he is not going to move his vote so I think it could be easier to consolidate on Z-Boson

##Unvote

##Vote Z-BosoN
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