EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVI
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Kreb
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Kreb
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/in | ||
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Kreb
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Also, I'd definitely say we should lynch people who dont want pre-game policy discussions. Seems awfully scummy to me. | ||
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Kreb
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On August 31 2012 18:00 thrawn2112 wrote: This is probably (99% sure) going to be my last game. I wish you all glhf. Kreb are you suggesting a pregame lynch on our host kitaman27? Sounds fun.  | ||
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Kreb
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If there only was a cop and no miller/godfather, it just seems like he randomly could find a scum on the first or second night and that would give a huge advantage to the town. Later in the game he will undoubtedly have reads on 2-3 people and it seems extremely powerful. He might be able to finish the game by himself when theres 6-7 people left and maybe he has reads on 2-3 of them. At the right time, he roleclaim and reveals all his reads. He might even sacrifice himself to prove his reads are right and still win. To me that sounds rather boring. Winning as town should be done through successful day discussions, not through a cop randomly hitting perfect reads and then just finishing it by himself. Same thing for example if no one dies at night. If theres only a medic role, he now has pretty huge information. Once again, that seems to give the town a pretty big advantage. However if theres unknown amount of medics, town blockers and mafia blockers, it becomes much more interesting to try and find out what actually happened that night. So Im new and I like the roles at least. :p | ||
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Kreb
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On September 01 2012 19:42 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: The cool thing about having a police with 100% accuracy is that it puts pressure on the maffia. While the town needs to figure out who's scum/townie, the mobsters need to figure out who's the police. I don't think playing police is as easy as you make it out to be. The police can get night killed, which means he needs to leave hints. If they're too vague the town won't be able to spot them. Many maffia games have been lost because the police doesn't manage to get his peaks across. At the same time, if they're too obvious, the mobsters will be able to spot him and kill him off. The town needs to combat this with leaving fake hints as police cover, which in turn will provide info to the town if a fake police is getting lynched. With the current setup I doubt that police covering is a good strategy, at least it's way less important, which removes a cool part of the game. The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15 - 4. Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start. Link to the mafia game library? Personally I looked at the ongoing mafia games thread and looked at ending posts. XX - Town win XXI - Mafia win XXII - Town win XXIII - Town win XXIV - Didnt find XXV - Town win 15-4 for mafia....? Edit (yes I know I cant do it when game starts =) ): Found XXIV thread. Town win. So we have 5-1 to town last 6 newbie mafias. I'd definitely not want a 100% cop then... | ||
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Kreb
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Example: A is twonie and B is mafia. B tries to kill A during the nightr but it doesnt succeed. The following things might have happened: - Medic saved A - Jailer saved A - Jailer blocked B - A is a Veteran and survived What message will B get at dawn? Will it simply say "Your kill was unsuccessful" and as such leave all options open? Or will it say, "target was saved/target was not there/you were blocket/attack was successful but target survived" to distinguish between the four options? | ||
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Kreb
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On September 01 2012 21:53 thrawn2112 wrote: I think you reversed the role of A and B somewhere in there, that situation was kinda confusing Yea I fixed it in an edit. | ||
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On September 01 2012 22:01 Toadesstern wrote: Roleblocks are dealt with prior to night actions. Kind of like a 2 stage process. Firstly all roleblock actions are dealt with. Next thing is everything else. So if you roleblock someone who was about to shoot you that shot won't happen to begin with, so obviously the guy who would have been shot, if not for the RB, won't end up getting a notification because nothing happened to him to begin with. + Show Spoiler [confusion!] + A Jailer is not allowed to target himself but even if he was it wouldn't work because he'd target himself, which would end up roleblocking himself and prevent him from jailing himself in stage-1 of the night I guess? B doesn't get a message at all unless he was roleblocked. So if he get's a roleblock message and his target is still alive it's fairly self-explanatory that his shot wasn't triggered because of the roleblock. If he ended up shooting someone but the target survived (without being roleblocked himself) he won't get a notification either because the shot was successful. It's just that it took away the protection and not the life of his target. So at that point B has no clue wether he shot a vet or someone being protected. So 1, 2, 4 are undistinguable (is that a word?  ) while 3 recieves a "blocked" message!Thanks! | ||
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Morning everyone, this thread got started nicely overnight it seems. About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers. Obviously the chance of getting a scum right on the first day is limited, but generally it keeps the discussion going. You're also not necessarily sacrificing someone important if you're lynching an inactive townie either. Overall it seems like the best of all the options. Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum. (Im gonna have to get used to not editing posts too :p Im way too used doing that!) | ||
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Ok, here we go. Comments on people in order of appearance on the player list! 1) KillingTime Pretty good post. Somewhat agreeing with the reads on Sonic and Jacob (both careful but active posters). Not agreeing on Xatalos. Slight town read. 2) drazak Nothing. Just agreeing. 3) kushm4sta Most information about so far. Two options: A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations. B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial. --- Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains. 4) WeeTee One post. Nothing really. 5) thrawn2112 Most thoughtful posting so far. Nothing which really points either way. Could maybe argue he had no reason to step into my defense had he been mafia. If so, he should have preferred to leave it, So possibly a very slight townread for that reason. Seemingly asset-if-town and dangerous-if-mafia though. Posting seem to be similar to his previous posts (as town then). 6) Xatalos Long post, not much else than agreeing and questioning. Also agreeing with senseless post by kush. Agreeing with senseless posting is however more "mafia-ish" than senseless posting itself. Very slight mafia read. Is this what you would call FoS? =) 7) Kville Nothing. 8) Cubu Two short posts. Nothing really. 9) Kreb Myself! 10) Stutters695 No posts. 11) JacobStrangelove Bunch of posts. Not much worth mentioning though. Thoughtful but careful posting. Not actively defending me as thrawn but still not buying the kush posts. Careful being the key word. Nothing worth drawing conclusions on but definitely something worth keeping in mind should this habit change. Too bad he doesnt have a posting history to look at. :p 12) Sonic Death Monkey Solid posting. Also careful though. Seems to have good ideas. Possibly a bit early conclusions, but hes at least aware of it. Ind the end, not much really. Also without history. | ||
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Kreb
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Im not sure what words the rest of you prefer. But to me, first day is gonna be almost random. It would be incredibly interesting to know what kind of "mafia hit rate" games have on first day. Because with 9 townies and 3 other mafias, you'd be hitting mafias 25% of the time if D1 lynch was random. And quite frankly I really doubt you're ever gonna get much higher hit rate than that. Maybe even lower. Recent newbie games also supports 25%, although the sample size is obviously VERY small. So to me, I got 11 people I can vote for and 3 mafias. Thats 27%. To me, a "slight" read on someone is if I maybe consider it to be 30 or 35% chance of him being a mafia (mind you, still below 50%). A "medium" read would be closer to if I believe its 50%. A "strong" read would maybe be, I dunno, 75%. When people post they got "solid" or "strong" read on day 1 after 1 post, Im honestly totally going O.O (yes I did exactly that). And I cant help counter-asking, what exactly is a "slight" read for you in that case? Face it, D1 is gonna be a mostly random vote on very small reads. Our chance of hitting wont go up to 50% or anything. Its the name of the game. So since there wont be any strong reads (what I'd call strong), slight reads are better than nothing. Voting on a slight read isnt good, but its the least bad option we have D1. | ||
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Kreb
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+ Show Spoiler + You do realize the deadline is very far? Yes. And I have no idea why you would imply I didnt. Question to kush: Why such aggressive, borderline unpleasant, posting due to one post by one person on D1? Try to ignore the fact that this is coming from the guy you accused. Im trying to find out why you would think that KIND of posting was appropriate. You could have expressed your suspicions in a much nicer and more composed way without almost ridiculing me (and maybe got more support for your claim then?). Why did you choose such agressive posting? + Show Spoiler + Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why? I dont think anyone is mafia at this point. As I said, barring some mafia making a terrible slip-up and revealing themselves, I dont "think" anything yet. At best, I have a very slight read right now, and I dont expect to get much more of a read before D1 is over. Question to Xatalos regarding this: + Show Spoiler + This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Can you please elaborate on how what I said is another way of saying this? To me, its the opposite. Im actually committing to not bandwagoning by posting something like that (and I believe I have now also fullfilled said commitment, hah), as I say I will do other things to find clues. So please, do elaborate. If I had to vote right now, I'd probably just blow my vote on either of the non-posters or single-posters so far. If I had to vote on someone who has been posting, Xatalos would probably be my choice. But no, that doesnt necessarily mean that I think he (or anyone else) is mafia. At least not yet. | ||
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Upon Xatalos calling you out a bit for not contributing, you reply with this: Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. (Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".) Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt). But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution? | ||
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lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational . Confused mafia not knowing how to get stop the bandwagon is just as good of a possibility. He seems to be the most "scared" of getting lynched by turning left and right in his defence, and that is more of a mafia-sign to me.Drazak, Weetee and Stutters started posting. None of them really convincingly (drazak maybe more than the rest). But then again, I'd have 8 or 10 voting candidates should I vote on people who hasnt convinced me of being townish. Kville kinda still has a chance to redeem himself. Dont know if I should just cast my vote and change it later if needed or just wait until later. I guess I'll cast it for now and see what happens. So Im voting for Cubu in the voting thread. | ||
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Kreb
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On September 03 2012 17:57 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: That's both fair points. I don't see lists as inherently bad though, we just need to evaluate the reasoning posters give for their lists (lists or no lists seems like a non-issue as long as we do our job). Personally I kinda like lists because they kinda "forces" out a lot of information. That means you can go back later in the game to try and get clues and try to see patterns. Its likely harder for a mafia to hide and be deceptive if he has to constantly update his thoughts and follow through with his reasonings. If you just post "well I kinda think A and B seems scummy and C seems a bit towny" you revealed much less information and as such dont need to back up as much information later. That said, it obviously doesnt have to be presented in a list format as long as you present the same amount of information. Its more that lists kinda force information out on the board. | ||
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Kreb
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On September 03 2012 18:47 kushm4sta wrote: So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches. Now the question is which one. Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia. Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu. Dont get ahead of things really. Still votes on other players, and my vote isnt final either. I'll have to figure out if I prefer voting early (and switching later if needed) or just voting late. But went with the early vote this time. | ||
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Kreb
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On September 03 2012 20:27 drazak wrote: Well, if you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote kville, have you looked at his filter? Have you seen his previous activity in other mafias? Something seems fishy there and if he doesn't speak up there is absolutely no reason not to lynch him. A) There will be no no-lynch. B) Even supposing there would. Heres an argument: If you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote drazak. See what I did there? I wasnt really considering voting on you, but your reaction to thrawns accusation are not something thats in your favor. Questioning his understanding of sleeping patterns (wut?), the ever so common, "if I'd had been mafia I'd have done this to fool you" (you know there tens of ways of blending in, and theres no "this is what you should do as mafia, as then everyone would do it and be instantly reveald). Then you follow it up with a senseless claim that to prevent a no-lynch you have to vote Kville (wut #2). I'm still leaning towards Cubu myself, but this had me thinking really. | ||
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On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote: On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk. Good catch, forgot about that. Any comments on this, Stutters? | ||
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Possibly off topic: + Show Spoiler + English might not be my first languege, but I consider myself quite well versed. But I still have no idea what this means (I understand the words, not the meaning). On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote: proves and shows any connections to the game How does one "prove and show connection to a game"? | ||
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In summary: :-( | ||
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You started off by ignoring this: On September 04 2012 02:04 Kreb wrote: Good catch, forgot about that. Any comments on this, Stutters? Then you follow it up by posting this: Part 2 Incoming. I just wanted to address the case against me first to give you guys times to look it over. So, we got this part 2 coming anytime soon? Or are you, for the second time, saying you will do something and then just ignore it? | ||
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Kush seemed to be the only one going heavy on Cubu. Rest kinda went with it because they were ok with it (myself included I guess). Though it's not really a town tell either if someone didnt bandwagon him either since it's very easy for a mafia to see where the votes are going and then post a weak case on someone else because they know we're lynching a townie anyway. Also, welcome imcasey! | ||
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On September 03 2012 15:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee): Kville Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now. Cubu: The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest): + Show Spoiler + On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote: But how do you lynch that which you cannot see? On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote: And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk. On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority. 3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention. So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me. drazark: Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly. Stutters: Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate. WeeTee: Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later. I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth. Thats the post im referring to Jacob about Sonic. Page 13. Thats towncred to me. | ||
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On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote: [/b]##FOS Kville Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling. Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win. Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ? | ||
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On September 05 2012 02:31 thrawn2112 wrote: Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17) So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2. Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating. I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town. | ||
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On September 05 2012 02:48 thrawn2112 wrote: The problem with asking for a modkill is that there is always the extremely unlikely chance that he is town and actually thinks he is playing to win. There is also the problem that asking for a modkill under the condition that a player is a certain alignment puts the mod in a position where they would be unfairly giving out information. I think we should leave all discussion of modkilling to the mods unless he blantantly and unquestionably breaks rules. Fair enough. I agree it would be a pretty dirty move to ask for a modkill like that (as I indicated in my previous post). But in that case we might as well just auto vote him to get rid of him, regardless of alignment. | ||
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You deal with Kville in whatever way you feel comfortable. Personally I'm very likely to vote for him should i survive. About the other commonly mentioned players: Drazak I think gave a genuine answer to the attack on him. It wasnt a particularly good defense in my opinion (which I pointed out), but I got the feeling it was more of an inexperienced townie defense. WeeTee/imcasey: no comments yet. I do think the strongest case we have on anyone apart from Kville is Stutters. No need to repeat whats been said about him again, but I do largely agree on the accusations on him. Should Kville turn out not to be a good option, I'm leanign towards Stutters as my secondary target. Slightly more interesting might be the rest. There is likely at least one mafia hiding among those players. My biggest townreads are Thrawn and Sonic. Thrawn seems genuinely interested in scumhunting, asks relevant questions and posts relevant opinions. Sonic got towncred for his questioning of Cubu, I've explained my reasoning there before. I'd also say I think Jacob looks like a townie to me at the moment, though maybe not as clearly as Thrawn and Sonic. My biggest mafia-read on the remaining players would be Xatalos. I think he came into the thread posting with descent activity initially. But eventually it his activity kinda went down, his vote on Cubu didnt convince me of anything, and I still havent forgotten how he commended Kush on Kushs initial jump on me (which was largely agreed on was not justified). Im not sure why someone would consider such a post to be "very proactive post with good reasoning". Kush is another interesting topic. His posting went up notably after the initial jump. I'm still not completely conviced hes not trying to mindgame us all with a purposedly unjustified attack. That said, I'm not exactly suspicious of him either, but should I die at least I wish people to keep their eyes open on him. The rest: Nothing really worth mentioning . Thats about it for now. =) | ||
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 For that reason, I sadly dont really think theres much to gain from that. I mean, likely the only reason I would not wanna vote for him as mafia would be because it would be such an "obvious" JK/Medic target. But enough of that. I've got a bunch of questions though: To me, that main target is still Kville (with Stutters second). Me and Thrawn had a bit of a lengthy discussion about what do. Thrawn suggested a backup-plan lynch on Kville, but only really Sonic, KillingTime and Drazak chimed in. Broad question: Is there really no one else who feel they want to add something regarding Kville? Surely there must be more opinions on him. To KillingTime: You did agree to what Thrawn suggested. But in a veeeeeery broad and almost reluctact (?) way. If I am still alive tomorrow, I will be voting for the player who I have the strongest scumread on, and my backup will be voting for someone who I have a less good read on but who is being pushed by people whom I have a townread on and who have made a good case. Why wouldnt you reveal your townreads then? Thats like the most general wording ever "I will trust people who I have townreads on". No shit? So care to elaborate on what townreads you have? And dont you have any reads yourself or are you just gonna blindly follow your owntownreads? To imcasey: Whats your take on Kville? And any opinion of Stutters (go back a few pages, right after D1 lynch to find the case on him)? Any townreads so far? WeeTee wasnt really contributing much at all, but I think its time you start too. To Stutters: Still not a word since the D1 lynch. Maybe luckily for you, Kville is causing more attention to be drawn to him. But you really seem to like defending yourself with silence over actualy contribution. Come on, show us some opinions, mafia-read, townreads. Dont really see the point of asking Kville anything, but yea, feel free to actually jump into the discussion if you have something to say. | ||
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I thought we were just kinda leaving Kville while discussing other reads in parallell, but with votes coming already, you must have a reason to not vote on the two most talked about targets? | ||
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On September 05 2012 17:57 KillingTime wrote: @Kreb: I would consider kush & sonic (who i suspect d1 but for weak reasons and who has played well since then) to be the most town players at the moment, with Kreb & drazak someway behind them. They are all active and seem to be trying to help town. But many of them seem to be abit at loggerheads so I want to go through filters this afternoon and see whether I still agree with these reads. I agree my post last night was broad/reluctant. That is because I broadly agree about kville, but really hope we can do better because even if kville is mafia he is the weakest member of the mafia as well in terms of finding the whole mafia team. Fair enough. I see your argument but I dont agree. I we leave Kville and mislynch AGAIN (which seems much more likely should we not vote Kville), we'll be in a pretty bad spot. And finally getting a confirm on Kville being mafia means we can look back at how people responded to the accusations of him. Kville flipping town is almost unthinkable to me since I really dont see how he would be following the "play to win" rule then. On September 05 2012 18:08 imcasey wrote: I willl read trough the thread again but only focusing on townreads and post with any content in it, hoping that all the wishwash post dont make me lose alot of focus. I would like to here your opinion on kushm4sta though Not much other than what I posted in my pre-night1-kill post. Im not really suspicious of him, but not as convinced as a few others seem to be either. But with 10 players left (9 not including myself), I would put him around maybe 5th-6th on the list of my most likely mafia players. In short, unless something new comes up you wont see me voting for him or agreeing with any bandwagon on him. | ||
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For the remaining 24h of D2, I think it would be good if everyone could focus on 1-2, maybe 3 targets that they consider possible voting targets. Then we can get a minor grounp or players, maybe 3-4 or them who would be main suspects. Kinda like we did D1. Obviously we didnt really do it on purpose, but I think it was good we mostly focused on about 5 players D1 (WeeTee, Drazak, Kville, Cubu, Stutters). We can then let them defend themselves and choose a voting target appropriately. Feel free to share other suspicions (I've shared mine of Xatalos for example), but try to focus on your main targets. Im not gonna push for a vote on Xatalos even though Im kinda suspicious of him. I am however gonna push for a vote on Kville. I think all those accusations going on last 24h has given him too much breathing room. To me he still acted 100% anti-town D1, he still hasnt answered a lot of questions about his behaviour, nor has he attempted to explain why he considered his behavious to be advantageous for the town. Kville is also a low-risk/low-reward vote, which I consider a good thing. Should he flip town, we really havent lost anyone who is helping us, and it will increase of chances on hitting a mafia on D3. Lynching a more high-risk target will put us in a seriously bad spot going into D3 should we mislynch. We also run the risk of losing both the mislynch plus another good contributor N2, like we lost Thrawn. We will obviously be forced into a high-risk lynch anyway on D3 should Kville flip town, but at least theres a chance of not having to go there if we start with a low-risk lynch today and hit home. I really didnt plan to start my serious case Kville as early as this. I would have like to wait until closer to the deadline to try and find more clues. Main reason Im already voting now is that I wanna get a bit of focus back to people, get people voting, reacting to votes and only discussion the most relevant, say, 3-5 targets. To make it clear: Im voting on Kville in the voting thread now. | ||
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On September 06 2012 07:39 kushm4sta wrote: Who are you talking to? Can you try harder to make your posts understandable? Like if you are replying to something make it clear what you are replying to. Agreed. Use the quote button to show who you are talking to or specifically state it. Makes it much more understandable. Noticed the same thing in this post: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move). The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response. Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity. Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense. Also the case against kush isn’t strong, as I said before you (not bad wagoning I promise...) It leaves more reason to Drazak being scum than Kush. I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. For this reason I have been thinking that killing is mafia sudo protecting stutters. Since the focus is on me now I need to say The Killing /xatalos thing was simply a hypothesis I was using to draw them out. (It was based on someone else’s analysis yes) It drew out Killing and he responded well. (although it was list like) So I am simply waiting for Xatalos to reenter the thread. If he reenters the thread and doesn’t post good responses I will turn the dogs in my head towards him. At that point it was kinda clear you werent talking to Sonis, but not without actually checking back on what was written before, which shouldnt be needed. But still no reason not to do it. As kush said this time though Im not really 100% sure on who you're talking to. | ||
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On September 06 2012 08:03 kushm4sta wrote: For instance if I had to pick three it would be drazak, killing, and xatalos. I'm going to try to get my reasoning in for drazak and killing before the 24 hour mark. I'll chime in that my main three targets would be Kville, Stutters, Xatalos. Nothing which has changed last 24h really, but might be a good idea to make it clear once more, | ||
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On September 06 2012 08:01 kushm4sta wrote: I agree we should limit our discussion to three people for the last 24 hours. But the last 24 hours haven't started yet so I think it's ok for people to still basically give suggests as to who those three people should be. For us in EU, it pretty much has :p When I wake up it will be 18h left or so. So I preferred getting the info out now rather than then, especially since I'll be at work 8h tomorrow. | ||
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Kush: I agree with you drazak isnt an amazing poster overall. But that why you can take his accusations more lightly. I dont think anyone jumped onto Drazaks wagon on you Kush, did they? You should be feeling pretty safe given the opinions people post about you. You're also making conditional accusations. "If Xatalos is scum, Drazak might be trying to cover for his buddy". While its a possibility, theres absolutely not reason to ever go for Drazak in that case. Your focus should be on Xatalos and getting a mafia flip on him, which then would confirm your suspicions. Drazak: No offense, but you havent posted the most contributing posts. And your case on Kush to me is a weak case. As far as I can remember now, there hasnt been much support for your case, actually rather the opposite with people claiming townreads on Kush. I'd advice you to drop your case, if nothing else for the purpose of getting a more focused discussion since theres pretty much no chance there will be a Kush lynch D2. | ||
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On September 06 2012 08:53 kushm4sta wrote: He is a semi-lurker and all around bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos. I have a hard time seeing how that argument isnt best used on Kville. He is the definition of a not good town (if he is town). Also, people gave you towncred for your kinda unjustified attack on me. To me, drazaks attack on you is similar. I understand it might not look the same from the point of view as the attacked person. But just as people thought you had honest (but miguided) intentions on your attack on me, I definitely think drazak also has honest and misguided intentions with the attack on you. You're not having much more reason to turn things back onto drazak than I did have to turn things nack onto you. But I never did that. | ||
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Page 14 if you wanna re-read. What had happened before was: Thrawn had made a case on Drazak. Drazak had responded with a bunch on replies. I pointed out Drazaks defense being lackluster. The drazak pointed out this: On September 03 2012 20:43 drazak wrote: I only mention a no-lynch in direct reply to what kushm4sta said, reread his post. Sorry if I'm being defensive, not sure how that's a senseless claim considering what kushm4sta said. Everything I've said has made me infinitely more useful on D2 compared to someone like kville, I have a lot to analyze, and you'll have more info. lynch me now and your future lynches get harder. See what Im getting at? Probably not. The key thing to me is this: Sorry if I'm being defensive That really had me thinking. Let me explain. That little phrase expresses the feeling of guilt. First of all, there is absolutely no reason for a mafia to feel genuine guilt at this point. He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me). What is the feeling you get as mafia then? Desperation? Maybe. Resignation? Maybe. Anger? Maybe. Guilt? Hell no. For this to be a mafia-move, it has to be a planted feeling. A purposedly planted feeling to fool us. So, it it possible it was? To me, no. Because purposedly placing a feeling on guilt there is a pretty damn crafty move. And had drazak been a crafty mafia, he would never have put himself in that situation to begin with. He would never have replied so badly to Thrawns accusations had he been a crafty mafia. So whats more likely? A) He got taken by surprise by thrawns accusations, immediately tried to defend himself, but upon seeing my post kinda talk down on his defense feelt guilt and the need to excuse himself. B) Purposedly responded badly to thrawns accusation. Then upon seeing my comment gladly noticed that "hey, now is the perfect time to apologize for my bad defense, surely someone will make a read on me thats its genuine guilt and i'll look townish". Am I over-anazyling things? Maybe. But to me drazak is looking town at least. | ||
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On September 06 2012 09:47 kushm4sta wrote: My attack on you was not unjustified and not misguided. Your post was a piece of shit and very suspicious and I wanted you to post more. You're going pretty off topic so I'll reply in spoilers. On topic: Dont you agree Kville is the definition of a not good town? + Show Spoiler + My post was two sentences agreeing on stuff like 3 people already agreed on. Then another 1 sentence of what I would do later (which for some reason several players auto-assumed I would not fulfill. I was accused of not fulfilling a commitment before there was even time to fulfill it). Thrawn also said it was unjustified, others pointed it out to, though maybe with with that wording. Stop using that aggressive tone. Calm down. You are making it only harder for yourself to focus and for the rest of us too. I dont want this to start into a dicussion about what happened 10h into D1. Thats over | ||
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Xatalos has been receiving quite a lot of suspicions lately. His defense has largely been that he's busy and unable to post. Now thats not a defense you immediately trust exactly, but the thing it that it is a defense. He is actually trying to get off the hook and post reasons for his behavior. He is also aware of his Cubu vote not being convincing. Now, none of those comment mean he is town, but he is trying to appear town at least, which every town should do. Kville, on the other hand, is.... not.... trying! There is little reason you would want to not try as mafia, but theres even less reason if your town. Why would you not want to even give the crappiest defense against accusation? He could have posted one sentence about being busy. He could have posted some weak theory why self-voting and not contributing as good for town (even if he knows the theory is terrible, posting a theory at least gives the impression that he's trying). But he has posted absolutely nothing. | ||
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On September 06 2012 17:28 drazak wrote: Alright, I was afk most of the day. First I'd like to point something out about Kush's posting behavior, he tries to downplay my accusations, and say that my case is bad, deciding that there is almost no case against him in his first responding post. Kush goes on to make /4/ posts responding to my accusation and then accusing me. In his posts, he either delays replying to me, which if my argument is weak, makes no sense, it should be simple to pick apart. In the meantime, I've been afk and have made 0. This seems like a bit over an overreaction if he's innocent and my accusation is weak. + Show Spoiler +
You sir, have made a big slip, every time you're accused you throw it right back at your accuser, this is the weakest of the defenses, espescially when your case is weak. I urge the rest of the town to actually look at my arguments, instead of dismissing them as a weak case, look through kush's filter, and the posts I've described and linked, he's made a large scumslip here, at first my accusations were fairly tenative due to having only moderate evidence, but instead of his defense making my case weaker, he's made it stronger. P.S. sorry for taking so long to post, was going to hours ago and then had dinner with a friend, when I got home I had other stuff to do on my other pc, and then fell asleep for a little after I got my laptop out. I'd urge you to post your voting candidates, if you have any beyond kush. Obviously you are suspicious of Kush, but whats your other possible targets? If you're gonna go through with a kush-vote, that might not be wrong if you're totally convinced he is mafia, but at least be aware that the chances of getting a kush lynch is slim at very best. | ||
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On September 06 2012 17:32 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: However, Kreb, I disagree with a couple of things. Your read on drazak being "sorry" is thoughtful and has merit, but it seems like you're putting too much weight into it. Also, I don't think drazak's case against Kush is very similar to Kush's early attack against you. Kush's early attack was kind of a spazz move at a time we had not much to go on, drazak's case just seems poorly reasoned at a time we got a lot of info to work with. This could both be done by a careless townie or a scum pushing an ulterior motive. I don't see what Kush's ulterior motive would've been. Fair enough, maybe I'm giving Drazak too much towncred. I was just kind of annoyed with how they kept going on each other. Drazaks attack came out of nowhere to me, and then Kush snapped back unnecessarily. What troubled me was that the longer that would have gone on, the happier the mafia would be. | ||
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You did explain your reasoning of Cubu. And that was a very easy target to jump on, and its quite clear that both mafia and townies jumped on the wagon once it got rolling. So that is a 100% null-read. During D2, you have provided two posts worth mentioning: 1st) Discussing the meta of Kville. Once again, this is the most likely target jump on given his behaviour. Could obviously be geniune suspicion, but you have to agree that should you be mafia, jumping on those two targets is a very easy thing to do. 2) Defense against KillingTime's accusation. While also adding a FoS back on him. What you HAVE NOT done: - Responded in any way to the accusations on you by thrawn back on D1 and N1. Here, let me refresh your memory: + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 21:44 thrawn2112 wrote: I'm not exactly sure what you want me to chime in on but I'll talk about scumhunting priorities that you and stutters seem to be arguing about. In XXIV, there was a massive shit-flinging fight between shady and I. There were people who thought shady was being completely illogical, and there were people who though I was being completely illogical. The vote was closely split between shady and I and shady ended up getting lynched. But the people who voted for either of us voted on the premise that illogical posting = scum. There weren't any good scum-motive explanations for either shady or my actions and the votes were completely based on "well this guy says dumb stuff." Then D2 I got lynched and flipped vigilante, and once again nobody was voting based off scum-motive suspicions. The case against me was that my vig claim was unbelievable, and there was an association case against me because another player and I had made extremely similar posts at the exact same time which made people think that we were in conversation with each other as scum. Meanwhile there was a player who had been saying extremely illogical stuff, but most people gave him a town read because they thought there'd be no way that a scum would be so illogical. His actual actions/votes were so extremely scummy throughout the whole game. However, people ignored that because they were spending too much time trying to make reads based on the quality of his posts, when instead they should have been looking at his motives behind the posts. The point is motives>quality of posts in terms of importance to making reads. That was the reason I favored lynching stutters over cubu. They both were heavy lurkers without much actual contribution in the few posts they had made. The people who voted for cubu did it because the quality (reasoning, writing style, and relevance to the thread) of stutter's posts was much higher than cubu's. So in their eyes, having low quality posts (see my earlier definition of quality) makes you look scummy. I didn't think that was a good assumption to make, and I preferred voting stutters because stutters had done less scumhunting than cubu. At the time of deciding between the two, the only scumhunting stutters had done was the very last paragraph of this post. Cubu of course hadn't done as much scumhunting as most poeple, but his contributions towards finding scum were more than what stutters gave. It was a vote based on motives instead of quality... somebody who doesn't scumhunt (ask questions, state what you find scummy, accuse people with FOS and such) is not a town player. - Shared any townreads throughout the whole game. - Shared any scumreads except for right now against KillingTime. - Explained your (relatively) low activity. - Scumhunted. Thats stuff you have NOT done. To me, you're trying to create a Stutters vs KillingTime situation similar to Kush vs Drazak in attempt to create confusion. You. Are. Still. Not. Contributing. Though. Show us some reads and do it well. Actually, I'd argue this might be a good time for you to create a list (yay, list discussion!) with your complete reads on everyone. As for my opinion of Stutters. He is 2nd on my vote list, well ahead of everyone except Kville. Those two stand out big time to me. | ||
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On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: Townreads are worthless. I'd rather suspect everyone who isn't confirmed rather than risk having a "town feel" on someone and completely overlook a scumslip because they're townie to me. It also gives the scum a grasp on where they sit in relation to everyone else. Very good time to reveal your disdain for townreads I must say. But very well. I could argue about your claims being bad, but I cant really argue about whether you truly believe what you say or make it up. So this didnt put you in a worse spot to me. Not better either though, as it was a very standard reply from what you'd expect. On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: I work 30-40 hours a week and am a full time student in my Junior year. Trying to explain why I'm not here isn't really relevant when if you believe that is determined by if you believe I'm town or not. Same here really. Cant double check what you do IRL. Standard reply. Neither putting you in a better nor worse light. On September 06 2012 19:42 Stutters695 wrote: There really isn't much to respond to on Thrawn's case. He felt I was more scummy than Cubu, obviously I know I'm not. I'm giving you my best reads right now, there isn't much more I can do than that. This, however, does put you in worse light. There is much to respond? Why on earth would a townie not feel the need to respond to accusation?!?! And you are not giving me your best reads, you're giving us a read on KillingTime. Singular. And yes, there is certainly more things you could do. Overall score: -1 to your towncred for the last part good Sir. | ||
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This, however, does put you in worse light. There isnt much to respond to? | ||
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On September 06 2012 20:07 Stutters695 wrote: Please explain what is great about giving townreads? Putting the answer in spoilers again because I consider the benefit/drawback discussion of townreads to be kinda off topic for the purpose of scumhunting. Especially with limited time left until D2 lynch. + Show Spoiler + -By giving townreads you show that you actively think about who is town and mafia, which mafia obviously doesnt have to do because they already know everything. -Its also a committal, by sharing your reads you show that you are willing to share your opinions of other and that you are open to people questioning these reads. A mafia would love to be able to sit silent and not commit to any (or as few as possible) reads. -Not to mention the fact that as a townie you wanna confirm as many other townies as possible. Both because then you know you can trust these players' motives and trust their opinions to be genuine, and also of course because instead of having to guess the mafia players among all active players, you can eliminate a few a and focus on the remaining when scumhunting. -It might help people if you die. If I die but people use my reads to finish the game in favor of town, thats awesome. Feel free to reply to any of these points. I'd prefer if you did it in spoilers to not turn it into a discussion. No matter if you reply to this or not, I wont reply to it more. My take on townreads shouldnt really be a matter of discussion when we're in it for the scumhunting. | ||
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On September 06 2012 20:50 imcasey wrote: Seriously ? I feel i have a solid case here, and not a single one of you have replied to anything of what i wrote. I encourage everyone to read my post again, is it only me that think iv got a pretty solid case here ? I am sure Xatalos is mafia and he will be my vote. You do have a point he used a phrase which he previously said he considered scummy. However, a point doesnt equal a good case. To me, you're drawing way too big conclusions based off a small point. Cases are made with throughout reasoning and multiple points. You're putting too much weight on this one read. Your wording also supports this. You say you are "sure Xatalos is mafia". And you only offer one point before you come to the conclusion. Thats not really critical thinking. I could probably find similar miss-steps in writing among most players here if I really wanted. Hell, I've offered quite extensive cases and I'm doubtful if I'd go as far as to say Im "sure" of anything. In short: Make your cases more extensive. Theres nothing wrong with your point (actually, I do agree its with the point, its a bit wierd he used something he said himself is scummy), but overall I wouldnt call your case strong at all. | ||
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On September 07 2012 01:10 JacobStrangelove wrote: He did say this about you though. Your motives for voting Imcasey were horrible (at the time at least, and imo still are) and he pointed it out. I too thought the just cause vig shot would be a very stupid idea. The vote on kville is a policy lynch (not without merit I might add) but you have been very flippent with your voting. Where did you lose your town read or is it still just a policy lynch? If it is a policy lynch and you don't think he is mafia you know where this would put us right? (well I understand bandwagoing to stay alive I guess) This is annoying because it looks like nobody is going to agree with my thoughts on killing so I set an alarm to wake me up 2 hours before the deadline. This should give me time to read the thread and make a decision. I've read your case on Killing. Killing to me is one of those I dont think I have a read on. He hasnt been standing out neither by being overly agressive nor passive, neither by being very contributory nor by lacking contribution. Hes a solid neutral read to me. As such, theres a big "wait and see" sign on him. Givem the alternatives around, I wont vote on him. | ||
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On September 07 2012 03:53 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Yeah, that's a good observation. I still have no idea what to make of the motivations behind that though. Both townies and scums should be motivated to defend themselves. That's what Xatalos has going for him and why I lean towards a Kville vote atm. Xatalos seems interested in the game and at least it seems like he wants to contribute. And he did contribute quite a good amount at the start of the game, during the weekend. So keeping him for another day there's good chance we'll be seeing more posts over the weekend. I agree lynching Kville gives us very limited information, we just get rid of player who doesn't contribute. The question is what we get out of lynching Xatalos. One thing seems pretty sure, if Xatalos flips red, it clears Kville. Otherwise, why would Xatalos promote vig killing Kville? However, if Kville flips red, it seems highly unlikely Xatalos is scum. Xatalos has more posts and votes too analyze if he flips red, but that's just because Kville contributes NOTHING. Not a great reason to keep him around. Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red? I wouldnt count out bussing attempts at all with Kville flipping red. Actually, should he flip red, it almost seems like it was on purpose to sacrifice him. If I was mafia I doubt I would get into a defending position of Kville with his behaviour, that would seem very risky. Also, Xatalos flipping green is the worst thing which can happen atm. | ||
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He is an absolute nullread. Which, considering we'll soon be down to 8 players, more and more looks mafia-ish. | ||
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On September 07 2012 20:56 JacobStrangelove wrote: Yeah cause our thing of lynching lurkers has worked out so well for us. Or wait no it hasn't... we should lynch someone we can actually find a scum slip on not someone who is convenient. That didnt answer the question. How did you have a townread on him? And Kville wasnt a lurker/policy lynch, as has been explained before. At the end he was also anything but lurkerish. Im not saying Im advocating an imcasey lynch, but initially nullreads are 3 in 12 being mafia. Down to 8 players, nullreads and still no hit, nullreads are 3 in (8 - <your amount of townread>). That not bad odds. Stutters remain my main suspect for now though. He is still on a grand total read-count of 1 throughout the whole thread and has given lackluster explanations to why he ignored replying to cases on him. | ||
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On September 07 2012 20:56 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also if you check back in my filter I give my reasons for town read on imcasey/WeeTee The only thing I found was this: Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey) Which isnt a imcasey read but a WeeTee read (carrying over to imcasey). And its a bit strange to assume someone to be town because they had to leave the thread. | ||
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Consider I think my survival chances are fairly limited, I'll make sure to help with what I can. | ||
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On September 08 2012 00:43 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well I have looked at krebs filter and honeslty I have nothing. He seems so completely town to me, the only thing that is odd is his frustrations regarding the kville thing + Show Spoiler + No shit. His play was so terrible on so many levels. When we needed him to post he didnt, and when he was going out he went on an accusation spree and created a massive shitfest for a few hours. Kvilles play was complete bullshit and should not have been allowed. This is pretty much the same as if we started at a 7-3 player situation, except we've had 72 extra hours of discussion. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.thadguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/modal-logic-can-solve-all-problems.png) Hey, I just googled logic and this is what I got, seems relevant enough! :p Players remaining 1) KillingTime 2) drazak 3) kushm4sta 4) WeeTee, replaced by imcasey 6) Xatalos 9) Kreb 10) Stutters695 11) JacobStrangelove 12) Sonic Death Monkey Assumed Town SDM Kush Jacob Kreb (for the rest of you) 1) We have, through attacks in the thread: Xata/Casey different alignment or both town 2) We have, through attacks in the thread: Kill/Stut different alignment or both town Xata/Casey both town not possible unless Kill/Stut/Draz scum team (not possible according to 2) Kill/Stut both town not possbile unless Draz/Xata/Casey scum team (not possib according to 1) As such both must be different alignment. -> Xata/Casey are different alignment Kill/Stut are different alignment Players remaining: Killing, Drazak, Stutters, Xata, Casey Possible combinations: A) Draz, Stut, Xata B) Draz, Stut, Casey C) Kill, Draz, Xata D) Kill, Draz, Casey What do these have in common!?!??!?!?!?!?!?! * Drum roll* + Show Spoiler + Drazak Some random further speculation. I focused on what these five players said about each other, ignoring what the rest said about them or what they said about the rest. I wouldnt put all that much weigth into this, but might be worth reading. Speculation 1: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 KillingTime: I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town -> Doesnt mean anything, but might point towards C or D. A and B only means Killing is a town genuinely not thinking Drazak is mafia. Specualtion 2: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 KillingTime: I don't think Xatalos or Kville are bad lynches. -> Assuming this means Xata and Killing arent scum together -> Possible: A, B, D Speculation 3: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 Xatalos: Stutters has been making okay-looking posts recently as well. -> Assuming Xatalos has genuine reasons -> All still possible, but C unlikely (why would Xata let Stut off the hook otherwise?). Speculation 4: + Show Spoiler + Page 21 Casey: Stutters seems to have good post, spent time on analyzing/writing them, i think he got good content in his post, definitely not a vote candidate as i see it. -> All still possible, but D unlikely (why would Casey let Stut off the hook otherwise?). Might point towards B. A and C only means casey is a town genuinely not thinking Stut is mafia. Please note: - If Jacob, Sonic, Kush or I am mafia, all this is null and should be ignored. - If the Xatalos/Casey situation is fabricated, all this is null (though, that means you have two mafia and just need to find the third) -If the Killing/Stutters situation is fabricated, all this is null (same) But. -- Supposing all these three are true, Drazak is mafia. My own take on this: -The Killing/Stutters situation is as real as it gets. -The Xatalos/casey situation is a bit wierd. It seems two quite inactive players found each other somewhat randomly. I wouldnt completely put it past them to fabricate this, but I consider it not likely. Worth noting might be that in a previous mafia game Xatalos bussed his fellow mafia friend into glorious mafia victory all solo. So he is no stranger to crafty moves. -I consider Kush, Sonic, Jacob to be fairly solid town reads. Worth thinking about: What about roleclaiming after N2? I dont know, theres so many possibilities what could happen. But should there be a detective around with some solid reads, he might seriously consider roleclaiming. We also got rid of a (the?) miller. Only Godfather left (or 2nd miller, lets hope there is none....) to fuck up reads. A detective could fill in some blanks. Also, if anyone sees any problem with my reasoning, or find a reason to believe either or the three assumptions to not be true, its probably a good idea to tell. I dont wanna be the guy putting the final nail in the coffin for town. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Given the reads I do think Stutters still remains the person who I think have been getting away with doing the least (excpet casey who I still believe to be a nullread). But Drazak might be the most solid vote given what I posted above. Xatalos, hard to read, neutral or nullread simply because he has barely been posting. KillingTime, havent really got time to dive into him as much as I maybe should have. Should I survive I'll probably do that. Casey is a nullread. Regarding townread. Kush and Jacob I both get the feeling they genuinely try to contribute and that their motives and actions are pro-town. Sonic still remains as someone who does thoughtful posts and solid reads imo. Out of the three townreads he is the one I'd most likely to believe has mind fucked us all and is a sneaky mafia :p But no, he seems very townish. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
GL town, but you can do it =) | ||
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