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Guess it is about time I tested the waters myself.Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI
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KillingTime
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Guess it is about time I tested the waters myself. | ||
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Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - : Scummy: SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning. JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread. WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance. Towny: thrawn Xatalos Both have posted good content, logically reasoned. Unsure: Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read. Fluff: - I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them. | ||
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KillingTime
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On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason. Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level. | ||
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KillingTime
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Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did. I don't have any more scumhunting to offer at the moment though so I will nod off and see what the morning brings. | ||
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KillingTime
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##Vote WeeTee | ||
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On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk. Weetee says that "In my opinion my previous post is succinct of my town reads and its what I wanted to say which should be valued by everyone as a whole" My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games. I could persuaded to change my vote off you given that others have not agreed with me, but to do so I do need to hear from you not about who you think is town - but who you think is scum! | ||
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I am ignoring Kville for the moment... I think the quality of his posts is self evident, but he is just a distraction atm. | ||
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Yawn - Ok... I am going to ignore Kville for the moment because his posting is useless. At this point I am happy to get on Kush's Cubu wagon. He has made a cogent case for why Cubu is a decent lynch and has offered up a plausible reason (meta) why he prefers him to Weetee. I have said already that I am sceptical of the value of meta in a newbie game, but looking back at the thread I can't honestly say I have a better case on Weetee than Kush does on Cubu and all day 1 reads are fairly weak by necessity. Weetee still remains in my mind though and I certainly will want to examine him again D2. He has ignored/not seen/not yet answered my request, but I assume he will see it when he comes to vote soonish assuming he does not want to get modkilled. As I will be asleep for the lynch - gl town. | ||
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the game will be put on halt until the night post is up and this just means we can't start voting again until after the night post? | ||
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In regards to the phrase ""Kush's Cubu wagon" I think that is a fair reflection of the thread at that point. Kush pushed kubu as the "best" lynch of the small number of lurkers. No-one else was talking much about weetee, (except to say he was an ok lynch but not their preferred choice) so I tried instead to be helpfull to town by supporting the read of a player who I had no real scum read on and who I felt was making a solid, logical case for a lynch. you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying. I don't, it was just a mistake/misunderstanding of how the game works. Looking back at other games I should have worked it out without being told, but it hardly inhibited discussion much?I did leave your other points aside because it was clear that at that point the thread was moving on. The main problems you had with my play as I understood it were: a) the time of my postings - which I addressed to your satisfaction I think and b) The fact that my reads were too "safe" - which I did not feel needed a longer comment. Looking back at the thread I don't think it would have been possible to make a scum read that was not absurd that you could not have twisted into an opinion that it was "safe" at that point, and the fact that you then posted your reads which were a) me - for reasons I did not credit (obviously) and otherwise essentially the same players - still seems like nonsense to me. In regards to my complaints about your posting style & your response to it. I continue to find it hard to read but I have not formed a revised opinion about how scummy it is. With you & sonic - I need to find time to look through your filter's again and look at your play over time & in context before I come to any new opinions, as you were never going to be lynched yesterday I put this on the backburner. | ||
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KillingTime
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If I am still alive tomorrow, I will be voting for the player who I have the strongest scumread on, and my backup will be voting for someone who I have a less good read on but who is being pushed by people whom I have a townread on and who have made a good case. Making elaborate schemes beyond that seems silly to me as it just tells scum where to hide to avoid being lynched (which in retrospect was probably our biggest mistake on day 1). So I agree insofar as I think we should set the matter aside | ||
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I agree my post last night was broad/reluctant. That is because I broadly agree about kville, but really hope we can do better because even if kville is mafia he is the weakest member of the mafia as well in terms of finding the whole mafia team. In terms of those I am suspicious of at the moment: Weetee/imcasey - No change since my last post when I said they were null for the moment (perhaps jacob did not read that post?) and that the need for replacement might have explained what I found scummy about them, but that I would be watching closely. I am not sure how this can be seen as “bandwagoning with xtalos” as Jacob has suggested. If you look at Xatalos’s vote he voted for Cubu early, when I was still voting for wetee.. which hardly seems like bandwagon activity to me. Jacob - I am trying hard to be objective about you and not fall into an OMGUS trap just because you are pushing me. But, I really dislike your play-style, posts like this one: Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying. seem to be designed just to confuse townies while saying almost nothing of value. At this point in the game town has very little information, so we can dream up any number of scenarios to second guess the mafia actions, I don’t think that kind of theorycrafting will help us catch scum. Your current argument seems to be that Xatalos & I are/were attempting to bus weetee/imcasey because I was more suspicious of him (unknown alignment) over cubu (confirmed town) on d1. I find this argument hard to understand and it seems more driven by your suspicions/attempts to smear me. Xatalos - I don't know what to make of the fact that jacob is pushing him alongside me. But, I would like him to explain why he thinks that Stutters695 is a much weaker case than imcasey, given that the need to be replaced seems to count in Weetees/imcaseys favour but not in his on d1 and there has been little from either of them on d2. Kville/Stutters - yep these two guys exist, not much more you can say about either unless stutters decides to be helpful (I have no hope with kville) | ||
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KillingTime
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First : Kush, who on Day 1 was very eager to see Cubu lynched, and made numerous posts deflecting attention away from stutters equally terrible posting (and he convinced town to mislynch - not necessarily his fault ofc, but...). Here, just after stutters has made his first substantive (no real scumhunting though, just pointless arguing) post, Krush soon starts to push his lynch wagon on other targets: So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Well, clearly alot of people did not feel that way, but Kush was very good at pushing (Cubu over other targets). Here he redirects the suspicion of our confirmed town player with a poor defence (Stutters posts d1 were NOT helpful, in depth & coherent - they essentially amounted to "look guys I am somewhat active and these guys are not - lynch them instead") So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me. He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post. Equally on Day 2 Kush is keen to portray stutters as basically a null read and focus discussion elsewhere. Stutters has been lurking hard day 2. His recent kville accusations have been very safe. At this point kville is the safest person to suspect, just because his play has been so WTF. However, I do appreciate his recent contributions on kville's metagame and I think that was a good post. I'm ok with stutters as a focus but I would prefer someone else. But then, again straight after that he is again trying to establish a consensus on a lynch that does not include stutters So can we come to a consensus about people we want to focus investigation on? Xatalos and who else? I like drazak but kreb doesn't it seems like. Any other input on the matter? Again I want to avoid lurkers who don't really have much to talk about. Xatalos has done a similar thing (to a lesser extent) - throughout much of the game redirecting suspicion away from stutters (though it may be less intentional in his cas) Here he is: The case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. but then, when I (and jacob? - not sure, I am not reading jacobs shitstorm of a filter again to find out) were confused why he thought this he says I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from? But in that post he is at least happy to discuss Stutters as a lynch. Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.). I think kville is not a terrible lynch. But Stutters is better and more scummy, and throws alot of suspicions on others who seem to have been redirecting a/the serious Stutters wagon so far... | ||
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KillingTime
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Yes my case is associative, I do think that is a fair point against it and I didn't know (but can see the logic) for why that makes it a weaker case. @drazak I am reading Kush's filter again for the allegations you made and will also post my thoughts on it. | ||
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KillingTime
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First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of. I can't make a case that I am satisfied with on any of the other players that is substantially different from the other cases at the moment. My post on Stutters was also about Kush and Xatalos - both of whom ignored it - although Xatalos may just not have seen it. Kush is not getting lynched today because too much difficulty. I don't think Xatalos or Kville are bad lynches. 2. In regards to Jacob, yes I am still suspicious of him but his filter is hard, his posting style is mostly a ridiculous stream of conscience style where he links half a dozen disparate thoughts together in the same paragraph and it is a real pain to read. I would not say I "dropped" the issue however, I continue to complain about his posting style in my later posts and I am doing my best to keep slogging through his filter. But he was clearly not getting lynched day1 or today, unless I developed an incredible water-tight case, which I don't have. Soo I am letting him lie for the moment as I don't want to get distracted with yet another separate lynch target today. (He also responded to me pushing him early by essentially pushing, demanding answers and then saying "oh well I wasn't sure about you I was just pushing you for answers" - and now he is back to lynching me again. Obviously, to me this looks pretty scummy - but it is useless for building a case as at the very most 1 other player knows I am town) | ||
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Kville has twice come into the thread at the last minute offering a weak defence and trying to deflect a lynch, as kreb wrote it has been clear for 48h that he might be lynched today and he has done nothing to defend himself - yet he pops up again just like on d1 with an attempt to deflect the lynch away from himself. Of the two I think he is a better bet. | ||
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KillingTime
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It says I may vote for my self. Correct? I am making a statement. If you wanna have a vote from me today then it will be the same as voting for myself. becuase eitjer way we are going to losea town today. Is pretty much my definition of a weak defence - you were obviously not going to propose another target as you had said that you were not in favour of a D1 lynch - but you knew everyone else disagreed with this and that if you were not lynched then someone else would be. | ||
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I have not been trying to "avoid things most days" I have been trying to lynch scum - here is my view of what happened d2: I responded to Jacob to try and stop his suspicions of me. I posted a case (not a good enough one) against the player who I thought/think is likley mafia. kush/drazerk did not seem likely to be lynchd d2 so I ignored this. Stutters came back strongly against the weaknesses in my case, to the extent that a lynch on him was unlikley. It was lynch time and the choice was between kville who had played terribly all game and xatalos who had an excuse for inactivity. | ||
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Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot? I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose | ||
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On September 08 2012 20:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Where did I say we should roleclaim? Sorry it was kreb in his night post - for some reason I thought it was in your long post on p32 but actually it was his suggestion just above on the page... Without devoting time to setup speculation I think it is reasonable to assume that we have a cop given that a miller has flipped, and he could help us out today if he so chose. That said, it is clearly for the cop to decide whether to claim and others to go from there. If the cop (if there is one) doesn’t want to claim for whatever reasons then a “forced” roleclaim is no good. | ||
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Kush - your question to the mod was established that Kreb could have been the vig and that therefore any claim couldn't be trusted. (Though I misinterpreted and thought you thought they had more than 1 shot) - You knew this then you make a post saying: There's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain. !!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!! I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town. This is the largest single failure of logic in this thread... the only reason I am not calling this a scumslip is that it is almost too blatant. What on earth were you trying to achieve with this second post? | ||
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to be lynched. If you're actually town, it's crucial that you convince everyone of your own innocence. If you're Mafia, don't bother! Yes I agree, however I am currently trying to figure out how to do that. Mafia only needs 1 townie to vote against me in order to force mislynch me and win, which means is I need to convince all of town (so far my cases have failed to convince one person) or at least convince mafia that a bus is less risky than pushing for the win. I think stutters case against me is fair - but please whether you think what it actually proves is not that I am a mafia who knows who is town - but town who doesn't know who the Mafia is and isn't that good at scum hunting. Unsurprisingly I think stutters is mafia and he is my best read)- he has made his case against me but if you look at things from my perspective he has actually contributed very little. Before that point he was high on several other people's suspicions and had contributed very little. I think everyone agrees his day one play is awful - but going back I am amazed just how bad it was: + Show Spoiler + His schtick to start is that a low post count is not a sign of a mafia and that: If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure (which is later exactly how he will accuse me of playing)Then he switches and low post counts and bouncing for the day is exactly what scum would be doing. why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing. Then there is essentially nothing until my case, at which point he posts a case about me being non-committal and weak - Before this point he has added nothing to the game until he is accused of being mafia. At this point he becomes hyper defensive and answers a lot of questions with what look like good answers - but if you are me at this point in the game and know he is almost certainly scum - they don't look that great to me they explain some of his reasoning as if he was a townie -so what- they don't seriously attempt to atone for his play d1 and I know that his "top 2" scum reads are both town and one of them (kville) he has almost no work to do on it because of how terrible his play was. So after I gave him an easy out he can re-enter the thread and go back to not contributing anything except super obvious stuff about kville and a meaningless conversation w the late appearing kville when most euro players have gone to bed. It seems that apart from jacob, who has been onandoff me all game - all of you only started to be suspicious of me after stutters case. Even if you are 90% sure I am mafia and you want to lynch me - you should be demanding more from stutters as well and asking why you are following the lead of a player who gave town nothing until he felt prodded by me. Again, I need to convince all of town of this if we are not to lose tonight…. My plea is when you are trying to judge between us try to see the game from my perspective as town. Stutters posting is confident and gives town nothing. My posting has been hesitant and trying to contribute. If Stutters and I are both town then mafia won this game along time ago because unless we both have damascene conversions to each others innocence mafia can just put their three votes with his/mine and win. This is my best attempt at showing you stutters from my perspective… other than trying to answer any questions you have I don't know what else I can do. I think jacob is town and one of the most suspicious of me, so I am obviously particularly interested in convincing him, as with his vote mafia don't even need anyone else. | ||
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KillingTime
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This is all probably academic though as I still have no idea how I am meant to defend myself at this point against the case that I was "too indecisive and safe" in my play earlier to your satisfaction. As I said - I was quite indecisive, because I was town and didn't know who was mafia! I think it is very unlikely that I'll get jacob & kush to vote against me and assuming one of them is not mafia that is game.  I will try and stay up as close as possible to the deadline and answer any questions you have out of native optimism that we might not have lost... If the voting is not close I will probably vote for kush symbolically because I feel like he has maybe played a great mafia game. If there is a chance of saving me I'll vote for stutters (if there is a counter claim) or imcasey who is my second choice as mafia... his posts d2 were not great scum-hunting - they pointed out inconsistencies in people's play - but I don't think they were inconsistencies that actually made sense from the perspective of finding mafia. I think he was just doing the minimum to stay alive and add some confusion to the thread. | ||
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But a stutters vig call (which I am inclined to believe because the breadcrumb is good and would make no sense for a mafia action as it would require guessing correctly both the target and that the vig was going to shoot) throws everything off. Since I said I would vote kush symbolically I have been thinking abit more about what the vig claim means. I don't think you are scum & so with me, you and stutters that leaves 4 players: sonic/imcasey/xatalos/kush. Rereading Sonics filter from the perspective of stutters being a confirmed townie makes me put in him that group - while I thought stutters was mafia his consistent attacks on stutters and partial defence of me made him seem town to me - but if stutters is also town I don't know his filter is very good at all from a town perspective At the moment I am not sure which 3 are the mafia and which is the townie - but in a sense that does not matter tonight because I doubt I can convince all of town to vote for Kush/Sonic tonight (although if someone can...) I would like to hear from you & stutters who you think is a better lynch out of Xatalos and imcasey. I think imcasey is better because Xatalos's recent posts this weekend have been quite balanced and they read to me like someone who doesn't know who the scum is trying to work it out - rather than scum trying to ensure that the lynch on me (which still looks pretty likley to happen) goes ahead. | ||
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If Kush is mafia his performance over the last page (and most of the game tbh) has been incredible.. I don't think he is - looking at the difference between Xatalos and Kush over the last page it is clear from my perspective who is town and who is risking a limp into d3... | ||
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. Mafia is soo done. | ||
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But today there (almost certainly) is one mafia and one town from me and Xatalos. I kind of think you 2 have to make up your own minds about which of us is town - I can post a case against Xatalos if they would like me to, and of course I want to help them any way I can with questions or whatever - but I think Kush & stutter have to direct the thread because it is their decision and I don't want to unnecessarily end up fighting with Xatalos in a way that does not bring clarity/ is not helpfull to them. To me it is as clear as it can be that reading your filter alongside sonic& imcasey's that you are the last scum Xatalos. Hopefully stutters agrees with Kush, Jacob (&me!) | ||
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- I am going to check into the thread once more before I go to bed in about 5/6 hours just incase stutters has an earth shattering revalation - otherwise all I am doing ATM is searching for the best reaction gif to post tomorrow incase it turns out that Kush is mafia (which it won't but the idea appeals to my sense of awesome). | ||
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That is how I read it when he made the point anyway (ofc I was not so sure about Kush - but was willing to jump on any potential save at that point.) | ||
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