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Per request.
BTW I loved this gem from XX
On July 05 2012 07:40 marvellosity wrote:
PENISES
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All edited up, got quoted a bit so you guys need to take care of that ASAP.
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On July 18 2012 21:38 ghost_403 wrote:
Marv is awarded +1 cohosting points.
Are they cool points like slot machine points where your credits go up? Or are they super-ultra-mega lame points like World of Warcraft achievement points?
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Marvellosity please use your ingenious wiles to attract more newbies to the XXII honeypot.
Love,
me
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dear Ghost Four-Oh-Three
with mighty blue text and flair
doth give us sweet words
Marvellosity
his dedicated sidekick
giveth us order
together our hosts
who stand better odds of vic-
'try o'er noobies here
we cherish our hosts
lest we draw ire inspiring
the mighty modkill
<3
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*Obvious takes a look backwards from the driver's seat at his passengers.*
When you build a time machine, you have got to do it with a little STYLE. Everyone get ready! When this baby hits eighty-eight miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious shit.
*Obvious attempts to start the bus. Unfortunately, the flux capacitor was somehow shorted via turning the key, and a resounding sputter followed by a billowing of smoke rising from under the hood. Obvious gets out to survey the damage.*
Well guys. Looks like I'll be of no help until I get this wreck fixed up. Wait, this looks like sabotage....
This has to be a set up! The host giveth, and the host taketh away. IGMEOY!
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TL Mafia: The easiest way to double your post count. You have your work cut out for you starting at 1K but I'm sure you'll do your best!
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18:00 EDT is 6PM, makes the deadlines 8AM for you? You'd have to be the judge of that. From what I've seen it's best to be around when the deadline is approaching, no matter what your role in the game.
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EBWOP: Oops, later post clarified 17:00 making that 7AM for you.
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Nah, do it like me. Sleep through deadlines. Stay up for 30-36 hours and sleep for 12. Bawss status.
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On July 21 2012 17:25 Blazinghand wrote:
/coach town
!!! I hope I get town. I want to use your services /wink
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On July 21 2012 22:02 ghost_403 wrote:
Would 20:00 GMT (+00:00) work better for everyone?
I'm serious ghost, I will sleep through whatever deadline you set up. Probably.
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Oh boy. Where's marvellosity when you need the voice of reason. Nevermind, who am I kidding; I got this!
PENISES
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Not yet, technically you're still in the last game, making this the... okay, so there's no overtime in Curling, so we'll call it the "stoppage time" of football :D
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On July 22 2012 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:
>Omg BlazingHand OP how do I stop a gosu town coach?
Fixed. <3
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I hope I don't become the next Bill Murray.
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You still have ThezelAudacity on the list? Thought she/he switched to obs.
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<3 Marv posted about slots here in the XX or XIX thread (many of them ended up in XXI, though). Maybe we will hook one of them if they're still subbed to the thread!
Hulk want start game. Hulk smash!
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It's not spam. It's SMEAT.
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Grab a veteran player, just promise you will make them vanilla town! Then betray us and make them scum! Then we can spend an entire game throwing around WIFOM about the situation and mafia wins! Also, I want to become a host one day but I need to be less newbie so let's just have Marv cohost, coach scum, and play for town. Also, who stole the cookie from the cookie jar?
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Ghost_403 stole the cookie from the cookie jar!
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Cookie jar thing: http://bash.org/?8102
Other thing was right, too. Having the fun before we have fun!
Good luck, have Batman.
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I would like to add to the above for my lovely friendly town players: please use the coach services. BlazingHand loves the attention and bragging rights he gets when town wins. Plus, if you scratch him behind the ears OMG SO CUTE.
And since it has come up, let's not get too caught up on blue roles. Remember, the most important players in this game is me are the vanilla townies.
And last but not least, since I have already contributed a set of haiku, I feel like a limerick will do:
There once was a doggie named Risen
Whose owner was never in prison
>Shot once in the head
>Now sadly, is dead
And the perp has now somehow gone missin'
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On July 27 2012 07:04 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 06:58 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 06:53 Promethelax wrote:On July 27 2012 06:48 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 06:45 Promethelax wrote:On July 27 2012 06:43 Zorkmid wrote:
I'm not saying that the "best town play" isn't to lynch scum, I'm just saying that in the absence of that inactivity and liars are the next logical targets.
Warning: Nub question::::We HAVE to lynch someone each day, right? No, we do not. We can no-lynch by making sure that no single candidate has a majority on them. Correct. We can engineer a no-lynch, but everyone HAS to vote. If we are able to ##Vote No-Lynch is up to the hosts discretion, but in a previous game with ghost as the host, we weren't able to, so to no-lynch we had to spread our votes out. I've only seen that as a possibility in a plurality lynch while we are playing a majority lynch. Different mechanics. So Keir: any thoughts yet? Shall we lynch Obvious for being obviously scum? and keep the pattern going, shall we attack Zork for being unable to answer my vague questions or try to lynch one of the two of us for being too active? All of the above. Lynch EVERYTHING! Nah, I just hope more people show up so we can get the ball rolling. Well while we're waiting let's breadcrumb secrets to each other. Victory, I'm sure, will be ours if we strive for it. Ghost must be being really nice to us because I already have a town read on all the players in this game, he must want us all to live happily ever after and not have to kill each other. Okay, so that isn't actually true but I hope a host does that eventually just to be a dick.
Hrm. Pretty sure we just covered this. Let's not encourage giving away any useful information before we can get any, mkay?
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Going to sleep now. Please keep an eye out, and pressure if you need to, those who aren't participating in the next 12 hours or so. The longer we have to wait to hear for them to go on, the less we have to work with as the deadline approaches. That said, it isn't necessarily useful to look at posting history in the first few hours of the day cycle. I am certain I saw non-North American countries next to people's names (not checking right now, just posting on the fly from my mobile before I zonk) so please also keep that in mind as you await their posts. Happy hunting!
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Good morning. Going through filters before I end up suit shopping today.
Ange777:
+ Show Spoiler [Ange777's last post] +On July 27 2012 23:24 Ange777 wrote:@Promethelax: You made some good points on Shady. I must admit I missed them. I felt a strange vibe from all his fluff posts but couldn't put the finger on it. Although before reading your post I was astonished to read this: Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:
I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa.
@Shady: Why would you assume that one of them has to be scum? It's not like both of them were claiming one blue role and therefore one of them had to be lying. This really seems as if you were preparing for possible mislynches. I want to hear your defense.
Totally agree with this concept. We should not let ourselves fall into the trap of confirming reds by mislynching town. This is true even on day 1.
@Promethelax:
I disagree that all lists are bad. That's just some people's method for addressing everything in a single post. While it is true that lists such as the one that got my lynched as town in my last game, as well as the one here posted by Golbat, can be misconstrued as scummy behavior, I don't feel that they indicate alignment. Look at the intent behind the list each time you read them. I don't want to have to read a bunch of lists, either. I wanted to give out as much information as I could knowing I probably couldn't get back before deadline. Outside of that my play was sloppy and ill informed. We shouldn't talk too much about my last game (Newbie Mini XXI), however, because that game is still not finished.
Also, great catch in your last post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625606
We should keep an eye on everyone's posting behavior, though, not just Shady Sands and Mordanis.
@Mordanis:
Great initiative to get the ball rolling on conversation. Your early case has initiated a lot of discussion, right or wrong, and that's pro-town behavior. Anyone keeping an eye on Mordanis specifically might want to note that we're not anywhere close to the deadline and this kind of behavior (generating discussion) is at least opening up avenues of discussion. Mordanis can't make you vote one way or another, decide the strength of his case(s) on your own.
@MrMedic:
Don't be afraid to post! We promise Marvellosity won't come out and shoot you, too. Let us know your thoughts.
@Golbat:
Your play reminds me of my own in my first game. Some friendly advice: focus on motive, not on what's being said.
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aRyuujin, please stop the poems. I am having a difficult time understanding many of your posts. Stylistic obfuscation of your points earns you nothing. If you wish to recap your post at the end with a poem, please be my guest. I too, enjoy the poetry angle, but please don't let it be the majority of your posts
goodkarma, you saw from my pre-game post history that I am an active poster, so you can back off on the lurker claims when the evidence was right there to see. I posted before the baseball game I just got back from, between the time of my post and when I left, there were ~4 additional posts added. My pre-game post history is indicative of being able to do so at the time. No mystery here, time available before --> less time available now. Thank you for keeping tabs on the low content posters, my filters were broken.
We should have been questioning Keirathi's motive for asking in the thread in this case. The role explanation that was printed clear as day in the OP portion entitled "The Setup" which has not been edited (up to this point) since 7/21, or about 6 real days, long before the game started:
On July 16 2012 23:01 ghost_403 wrote:
Roleblocker: You are a Roleblocker! You're kind of a scary fellow. Every night, you may stand outside someone's house and convince them that it really is better to go back to bed, rather than whatever they had planned that night. Your target will always be notified of a roleblock.
Roleblocker: You are a Roleblocker! You're kind of a scary fellow. Every night, you may stand outside someone's house and convince them that it really is better to go back to bed, rather than whatever they had planned that night. Your target will always be notified of a roleblock.
I fail to see how this information would need further confirmation or clarification. The fact that this was missed prior to asking implies similar things about reading our posts.
Shady Sands' is 100% convinced Mordanis is scum. And is willing to waiting 2 days to lynch him. This is bad play. If we identify scum, we kill them. No crazy circular logic of if x person dies then we have more information y person. Just no. Scum can scheme, they are aware of eachother. Town cannot, except in the case of Masons. Shady Sands is my current #1 scum read.
#FOS: Shady Sands
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On July 28 2012 14:02 aRyuujin wrote:
Last post for the night
@Keir: yeah, I'll stop haikus lol
Ninja posted while I was typing up my last. Thank you for changing your ways <3
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I need to change my FOS to a Vote for Shady Sands. I know I won't be waking up for about 8 hours and I've got an engagement planned for the early afternoon. I will do my best to get back to the thread before deadline to respond accordingly to any changes, but I'd not like getting modkilled for failing to vote.
##VOTE Shady Sands
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Hello MrMedic. Since you have some free time, would you like to tell us who you would have voted for Day 1 and why? It would help town very much to get that information since we've been operating entirely without you up to this point.
-----
Vig hit might have been useful tonight, but I don't see us being able to come to an agreement on who should have been shot. With a green (as in new) player behind the trigger as Vig, I would have hoped that he reached out for some coaching. Other town power roles in a similar situation should be reaching out to BlazingHand if you need advice on how best to help the town.
Going to go back through filters in a few hours, I have to read through and try to understand the motive for each person who voted for Golbat.
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In regards to my activity, should be able to pick it up by Monday if I haven't been decimated. Going for quality over quantity til the wedding stuff (not my wedding) is finished. (double spacing to keep things grouped)
Okay, so most of the votes on Golbat were related to his newbie-card play. I guess I can accept that as a scum tactic, but as you've seen here it's also evidence of someone trying really hard in their first game.
Outside of his defense of being a new player, he was willing to switch votes in order to secure a Day 1 Lynch (I interpreted this as to prevent a no-lynch, majority vote rule), which Keirathi points out as scummy behavior. I disagree with the assessment. We already discussed that votes are a good form of early pressure. It's unfortunate that Golbat wasn't able to get back in time to role claim or perhaps make a better case against another player.
Zorkmid's vote comes off to me as a bandwagon vote. Evidence against Golbat was that Golbat finally settled on a decision for his best scum read?On July 27 2012 22:11 Zorkmid wrote:Another of these people is Golbat: So far, Golbat has, in this order: voted Mordanis
unvoted Mordanis
FoS MordanisHis unvote seems to coincide with Mordanis's making a case on him. He claims he backed off the vote because: Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:
The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read.
I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is #FoS Mordanis
I'm not sure what this could mean, but I think that it's worth pointing out. It's one of the stranger seeming posts I've read in this game. Pretty arbitrary reason to vote for someone. Can you explain what you mean by town vibe in that post? (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625737) I could understand not having a definite scum read from it, but implying the opposite it a bit premature.
Mordanis tunneled on Golbat from the looks of it. It matches his behavior earlier in the game, tunneling on Keirathi.
On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat So...
1) Hating on the newbie card (redundant)
2) The quote regarding Golbat having a potential read on scum but not committing yet, which is also explainable by actual newbie play.
3) I guess he got tired of being tunneled, ding ding! Another newbie trait!
Pretty shaky reasoning for being scummy, in my opinion. It didn't even register as scummy since it looked a lot like my play in my last game where I was in a similar position. How did you not find Shady Sands saying he is willing to pass up on lynching someone that he considers definitely scum as less scummy than newbie play, hrm? It IS newbie mafia after all.
Also, please stop spoilering color commentary. Do it without spoilers or refrain, please. One-line spoilers are nearly as distracting as the poetry was. Thank you.
I'm still interested in looking at Shady Sands. Other people who have expressed concerns regarding him have been
> Keirathi - that Shady's posting resembles a cop's posting in a previous game. I'd like to know how that's relevant, unless Shady was that cop, we're talking about different things completely.
> goodkarma - Found the day 1 lynch stats thing to be scummy. Likes that Shady has been one of the driving forces behind town conversation. Notes that Shady doesn't jump on every bandwagon.
> aRyuujin - Haiku'd that the stats thing was scummy. Also mentions that scum would likely not lie in such an easily identifiable way.
> Ange777 - His filter reveals that Shady's play has been pretty confusing (regarding flips and what those flips reveal, between Mordanis and Golbat)
So here's what I'm putting together from all of this:
Shady Sands' play is rather deliberately confusing and time wasting:
1) Bringing in statistics without identifying exactly how they were obtained, ergo they were not easily identifiable as a lie
>>>>Lots of time is wasted on people focusing on the stats, trying to verify them, instead of spending time looking at what is more readily confirmed: anything in the thread.
2) Trying to understand what he meant by what flips reveal about the surviving town members, before any other deaths occured
>>>>This will end up being a bunch of circular logic on Day 1 given that no other information is known to plain old town members. Delays relevant conversation away from today's discussion and focuses on tomorrows.
3) Being willing to let someone who he considers definitely scum survive the night
>>>>No. We always kill scum, potentially removing scum power roles in the process.
4) While in the process of writing this, Shady has claimed that I voted for Golbat.
>>>>This is wrong, as my vote was on Shady. More misdirection/confusion.
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On the note of my previous game, it's over now (Newbie Mini XXI). Feel free to read it and pick it apart, if you so wish. I was a vet and I was very outspoken the first day. I stayed up for 36 hours playing among other RL activities and went to sleep about ~10 hours from deadline. Woke up to the night post.
On July 30 2012 08:44 Keirathi wrote:Obvious.660A lot of my mistrust of Obvious stems from similar reasons to my distrust of Promethelax. He was extremely active in the pre- and early-game stages, then has virtually disappeared except to push Shady. However, he said Show nested quote +Obvious.660 wroteI will do my best to get back to the thread before deadline to respond accordingly to any changes, but I'd not like getting modkilled for failing to vote. Okay, so he didn't show up again before the end of the day to defend his read, what's the big deal? Well he posted just THREE minutes after the day post saying "What the fuck." If you were around for the day post, or had the ability to be around, why weren't you there defending your read of Shady? Again, from my perspective it feels like you were just ambivalent as to which one died, and keeping your vote on Shady distanced you from the people who voted Golbat.
That's when I got to the computer. When the day post was happening.
It's more telling of my conviction that I stayed on target with Shady Sands. [b]Why do people seem to think I switched my vote to Golbat for Day 1?[/n] That is false, and my list of suspects grows every time you do that. (Shady Sands, and now we add Zorkmid.)
I felt more strongly about my argument on Shady Sands than I did about the case on Golbat. I left my case and evidence for the town to decide.
On July 30 2012 05:49 Shady Sands wrote:
b) Obvious
I'm still not satisfied with Obvious' lack of defense of his own position prior to the D1 lynch. Obvious hasn't attempted to respond to this argument yet.
Which specific allegation(s) that I am lurking did you want me to address? That I posted frequently before the game started and now am posting less? Many people have pointed this out, but you and Keirathi specifically are asking for responses, so I would like to know what the exact argument is in plain text here and I will respond to that.
Seriously, if you want me to describe in minute detail every hour of my day from here out, I'm more than willing to share with you those details. I'm unemployed, I tend to sleep 12 hours at a time, my cousin is getting married in six weeks and this weekend was her bridal shower and bachelorette party which I was helping with (once again, Shady Sands at it again with the confusion that I was at a wedding. That's not what I said). I'm trying to emphasize here that there is no mystery to why I haven't been posting much up to this point, but my reasons are being dismissed as scummy excuses. I also already told you to expect my posting to pick up by Monday, which is now arriving soon (my time, EST). You can call me a liar and policy lynch if you want if my posting isn't up to your standards if it will make you feel better, but you'll find you're just distracting yourself from finding actual scum.
Promethelax's case on Goodkarma (It won't spoiler and I can't figure out why, sorry it's going to be longer than it needs to be edited out non-GK related material and some "snips") Link to original cast post from Promethelax:
[spoiler]On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote:On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:
I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful.
Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me.
Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote:
I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two.
-SNIP-
TL;DR:
My call to action:
Lurkers will perish
If you will follow my vote
aRyuujin you're first Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 03:25 goodkarma wrote:I am going to change my vote, but first I'd like to explain a few things. Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. -SNIPPY- Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin##Vote GolbatPS: + Show Spoiler +I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. [/spoiler]
Here's a case that's easy to follow, one that I find myself compelled to agree with as a good place to be looking barring any better defense than "oops, I guess I was wrong". I hope to see this further developed whenever goodkarma makes it back.
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EBWOP:
It's more telling of my conviction that I stayed on target with Shady Sands. Why do people seem to think I switched my vote to Golbat for Day 1? That is false, and my list of suspects grows every time you do that. (Shady Sands, and now we add Zorkmid.)
I fucked up the [/b]
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Looks like I edited out the end of the case, as well? I'd try again but just use the original post since it won't spoiler for me. It was linked in my first try.
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15650186
My night post:
On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote:
So here's what I'm putting together from all of this:
Shady Sands' play is rather deliberately confusing and time wasting:
1) Bringing in statistics without identifying exactly how they were obtained, ergo they were not easily identifiable as a lie
>>>>Lots of time is wasted on people focusing on the stats, trying to verify them, instead of spending time looking at what is more readily confirmed: anything in the thread.
2) Trying to understand what he meant by what flips reveal about the surviving town members, before any other deaths occured
>>>>This will end up being a bunch of circular logic on Day 1 given that no other information is known to plain old town members. Delays relevant conversation away from today's discussion and focuses on tomorrows.
3) Being willing to let someone who he considers definitely scum survive the night
>>>>No. We always kill scum, potentially removing scum power roles in the process.
4) While in the process of writing this, Shady has claimed that I voted for Golbat.
>>>>This is wrong, as my vote was on Shady. More misdirection/confusion.
Now let's add
5) Claiming I voted for Golbat
>>>>Just responded to this above, I did not vote for Golbat, nor did I intend to vote for Golbat at the time. Shady Sands wanted to let a person he (at the time) considered scum live through lynch day one and few people saw a problem with this but me. That was my scum read and I stuck with it.
6) Claims I was at a wedding when I clearly said wedding stuff.
>>>>Note I didn't say: "I'm going to a wedding guys I'm gonna be trashed and fucking useless for like two days, so don't expect to see me!" I just said I had stuff going on during the day (stuff that doesn't happen while I sleep, unfortunately) that was wedding related. Why assume it was a full wedding, a way better excuse that would let me get away without posting even longer. I'm not trying to get out of contributing, I just have shit to do. I certainly could have come back and used that as an excuse for not posting by delaying my contributions even further if I wanted to, as it was open to me with his assumption.
MrMedic please come out of hiding and tell me what you think about Promethelax' case on Zorkmid.
I'm going to be here for a while and I'll check in periodically to respond to any further concerns you might have. Please also note that I'm not dead set on just tunneling Shady Sands. I'll be going through other filters during the next few hours to see what other cases I feel comfortable making.
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I just want to hear something out of MrMedic at some point since I haven't much to go on for him. Also we get to find out if he's gonna sheep the whole game.
My points against Shady Sands is a series of evidence that makes me think he is deliberately being disruptive and engaging willfully in anti town play. If you came up with them first, I am glad you brought them up. Especially the part where you said exactly all those things as I wrote them, including the part where you pointed out #4/5 and knew everything about my schedule to point out #6.
Sorry about repeating the one about Golbat, I added to it so at least it's not a complete waste of a point. Honestly didn't even look at my own quote to check if I had listed the point about me voting for Golbat. Trying to get deeper into the game tonight if people are on to talk about things since I'm up and I'm here and my absence has been annoying people.
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I'll take a look now. Was just catching up on FB a bit. Hopefully spoiler is working for me this time.
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@Promethelax, my response to your request for going through your case against SS
SS lurky response to your earlier case:
On July 28 2012 21:30 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 21:00 Shady Sands wrote:On July 28 2012 20:36 Promethelax wrote:Hi all! Back from work late and I'm blasted to bare with me if I'm not making sense, I'll clarify after I sleep and wake up if anything is obfuscated by my mental sate right now. Well, a few things have changed since I was away, I see. aR: I actually found your Haiku to be pretty easy to read. I'm glad you stopped with them since one or two took some time for me to work out but in general I don't feel that they obscured your ideas too much. Unless I'm shit-house retarded this Reading through the thread. Lots of material to work with, nice job town. was posted two hours ago by SS and he never said anything else. I'll be voting for him based on my earlier case and his lurky response to it, if there was a case on me I'd do my damndest to explain my behaviour to town and make sure that people hunt scum instead of me. So, Shady seems really suspicious to me and I will be voting for him, I hope you all will join me and lynch this scum bastard today. I'll be up for a while more and may pop back in to the thread before going to sleep. I probably won't post again after sleeping until 24 hours from now when I get out of work tomorrow. For now: ##Vote: ShadySands Have a more substantive post on the front burner, but I think this post is something we need to note. Look through Promethelax's filter: he makes an accusation against me, then signs off, sees no response to his accusations and says I'm lurking, then calls for a lynch because someone hasn't responded to his accusations yet. His reasoning in going from FoS Shady Sands to Vote Shady Sands is a single two-hour old post that says I'm reading through the thread. I think we have better candidates to lynch, but this behavior strikes me as fairly scummy. ah, no. You're wrong there. We're getting close to deadline for me (because I'll be asleep for a while) and no one has shown me anything that makes me think anyone is scummier than you or that you are town and therefore less scummy than someone else. I didn't place my vote early because I don't like to vote really early. I Placed my vote when the thread had time to do its thing and make other cases or defenses, I like to be informed before I make my decisions. I would have voted for you even without your most recent post. I just thought I would mention it since I had a chase against you and more post was, once again, scummy. tl;dr I was going to vote you unless 1) you had posted a convincing defense of yourself or 2)someone had made a case that made me think someone was scummier than you. Neither of those things happened while I was at work. I voted for you.
I agree this does stand out. SS getting on people's cases for not posting, claiming that we should be looking at post timings because they are sensitive, and then leaving it at that is fairly eyebrow raising. It would stand to reason he should hold himself to the same standard as everyone else.
Your earlier case against SS:
Link to the following original post in case I screw up again and edit something out that should have been there before posting
+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote:(snipped response to Ange777)Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there. What I found, and still find weird about shady is this: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example: from the above post and others He also says that Show nested quote +Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. He also replys to my advice by saying Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 09:11 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 06:41 Promethelax wrote:On July 27 2012 06:29 Zorkmid wrote:On July 27 2012 05:52 Promethelax wrote:
Hello all and welcome to Newbie 22! I'm excited to finally be in this game.
I have, much to my delight, rolled town for the first time in a normal mini. I hope to be able to prove to you that I am as innocent as most of you and much more innocent than our scum friends lead by Marv who, shockingly, rolled scum for the millionth time.
On policy: I don't like policy lynches. I feel that town can do better than that and we should lynch scum not liars or lurkers. It is always possible to build cases and to try to lynch scum instead of basing our attacks on a black and white policy.
Keir is right about the town RB though, you should hold your power until d2 at least since blocking a blue role can throw us off immensely. Do not RB until you are sure that someone is scum! If you have a perfect read d1 go ahead but I doubt you do.
Also Keir: I promise to spell your name right this time.
aRyuujin: since you are here would you be kind enough to bless us with one of your Haiku to start some discussion, no need to be silent just because you feel there is nothing to talk about. About the bolded part, I think that early on in a game, there really isn't that much to go on in order to choose who to vote for. I also think that which an inactive player isn't necessarily scum, they aren't very helpful to town. Same goes for liars. That's my two cents. Day 1 is like any other day, we don't have all the information we want to have but we should use what information we do have to lynch a guy who looks scummy. Not a guy who looks like bad town. Marv said it best in the QT for I can't believe its not themed mini mafia: "best town play is to lynch scum" post 101 if you are curious. It was in reply to something dumb I said. While I'm not saying we will hit scum without fail we should try to. We can eliminate shitty players later with Vigi shots or scum will shoot them. A lurky scum team will have no ability to control where we look, if me and my boys had lurked in XIX we would have been crushed in LYLO but because 2/3 of us were active we managed a perfect victory despite Keirathi replacing in and figuring out all three of us at just the wrong time. aR: you make me happy with your Haiku Obvious: your limerick is excellent as well There are a couple points here that are bad advice: 1) Scum will not shoot bad town players. It just makes no sense 2) Do not, I repeat, do not, waste vigi shots on bad town players. Indeed, vigi shots are the single most critical resource the town has. scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case... Show nested quote +I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself.
Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching. Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says: Show nested quote +The reason I think it's likely he'll flip green right now is because we haven't been able to see his response to these accusations. If he responds in the way in which I think he will (or chooses not to respond at all) then I think he's a clear red. Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than. I also hate this post: Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler +if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. makes no sense. Why would scum draw attention to himself on a case this early? Why especially would the scum stick to his guns rather than move on to greener pastures? Seems like really dumb play for scum, although perhaps he thinks I am that dumb. I am pretty sure I'm more intelligent than a garbage can though... Anyways, despite my annoyance with him, his play seems more uniformed than scummy. So to you Shady I say: Read through the OP again, and preferably some of the guides. Your play so far has been far from inspiring. And compared to this group, that's saying something. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] +On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue. I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. , and find for me one place where I explicitly say that we should lynch Keir. All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch. I over committed to defending what I still believe to be a good read for being 2 pages in, but I didn't try to start a bandwagon on him. If you really want to make a big deal out of a mistake and end the discussion before the day cycle is 1/4 of the way done, by all means just vote for me and agree that its obvious. If you don't feel that way, do your own analysis and point fingers. Town doesn't win by singing Kum Ba Yah, My Lord. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] +On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:14 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all.
On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3.
So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:26 Keirathi wrote:
@Goldbat: I responded to both of his posts regarding me with pretty strong dismissals for being a bad case. My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvoteI just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler +That was me trying to be all internet tough . I'll try to tone down my accusatory-ness, but that's just me being new to the game. And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote:
I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town.
Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience.
After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch-- especially if Golbat flips blue/green. the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, Show nested quote +By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find.
For the sake of clarity and my sanity in trying to inject commentary, I'll just copy out your points against SS and respond to them outside of the spoiler without attributing them to you in each quote heading.
Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. I agree that you could interpret this as simply increasing the size of his filter. SS' post did contribute to the distraction of the thread for a not insignificant duration (among the other posts about people's posting habits, where we eventually come full circle to the first part of my post here (lurky response)
both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. This was in regards to what you called his efforts to dissuade the town from actively scumhunting until everyone had posted. You were incorrect about it being newbie 21 (I was in newbie 21, first to die in D1 lynch as vet), but the point is still salient. I personally think that looking at other newbie games to check out the D1 lynch success rate is a waste of time. We shouldn't be worried about the success rate, we should be worried about selecting the right people. This matches my (night post) read of SS as attempting to mislead the town, which was considerably later.
scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. This was regarding the bad advice SS gives on who scum will NK. I am once again in agreement with you. In fact, newbie 21 the D1 night kill was basically a non-information kill, and they continued to kill off the quieter members of the town while the vocal members went back and forth chasing their tails. The scum just had to sit back and let that happen (or facilitate it, I haven't had a good look at that game in retrospect as it has ended tonight, so if I'm wrong, apologies, this was the impression I got having been loosely aware of if since I died) and get rid of people whose deaths wouldn't give up much information.
Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy [my edit for clarity:Mordanis] is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. Displays SS lack of confidence in his read. Is it fairly standard for scum to behave this way? Golbat was also not very confident in his scum reads, and he flipped town. If anything this could be considered a newbie trait, something I try to keep a null read on barring other evidence. We seem to be at a point where there is enough evidence to use this as a tell against him.
Promethelax wrote: Show nested quote +Shady Sands wrote:
The reason I think it's likely he'll flip green right now is because we haven't been able to see his response to these accusations. If he responds in the way in which I think he will (or chooses not to respond at all) then I think he's a clear red. Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than.
the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. We have one confirmed town from his list of two kills. SS didn't seem to be willing to put himself on the chopping block if his two "scum reads" were wrong. Using the WIFOM logic about flips to get to agree to a lynch is a really awful way to go about it, an awful tactic no matter what side of the game he is on. Thankfully nobody was (unless I missed something in there) in agreement with his ridiculous stack of what-ifs that led to his conclusion that one of them must be scum.
Promethelax wrote: Show nested quote +Shady Sands wrote:
By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find.
@Promethelax: Anything else you would like me to address that I missed or expand upon what I've already written?
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The other "mystery" person I was referring to? Where did I say it was a mystery person? There are 3 scum in the game, so if I'm tunneling only SS I'm not doing town any favors. Zorkmid, who I earlier pointed out that he also stated erroneously I voted for Golbat on D1, is the only other person I've really mentioned having scummy behavior (matching SS: creating confusion) and you have written a case against him as well.
You haven't heard about any other scum because you asked for me to reply to your points, and now you're telling me I wasted an hour writing up that post to agree with you? Kay. I'll just go do what I wanted to do before you asked for that reply, which is go through some filters.
Now I've got my eye on you, too, for wasting my time that would have been better spent looking for new things replying to your old.
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@goodkarma
+ Show Spoiler +On July 30 2012 14:53 goodkarma wrote:Please note: First, there are probably some format issues as I am not yet a pro at working with stupidly long posts. Some things aren't italicized that I meant to be, a few things aren't spoilered as heavily as I intended... But you're going to have to live with it. I'm sorry, but this has taken so long to put together I'm through with it right now. Feel free to pick it apart and analyze it as you see fit All the content should be there, even if the format isn't... And yes, I started calling Promethelax Prox. I'm that worn-out. Happy reading  Also, the part to Ange was written long before Promethelax's case against me, which is why that part may feel a little out of context compared to the rest of the post. Also note: because this post took so long I might not have addressed something in the last couple hours or so. I will review this thread again and see if there's something I didn't address yet, possibly as late as tomorrow morning. I have been reading and re-reading threads, and assessing and reassessing my reads. Putting my thoughts together for this post has taken way longer than I thought it would... A quick note directly to Ange: Ange, I did notice your FoS, and have read through your arguements. I still strongly recommend you look through my thread closely. I have provided some analysis of other individuals, and will be doing much more analysis here. I adopted a controversial, not-so-well liked lurker lynching policy day one, which I would hardly call "blending in," as is one of your points of accusation. Please recognize (to use an analogy directly from a mafia guide) this isn't twitter. I don't feel the need to fend off an attack when I feel the points of the case made against me are defended by some of my prior postings. Please read what I have already posted about my thoughts on scum-hunting in general, and come back and tell me what you think. I feel I have clearly stated my day one objectives. Okay, off of my soapbox, and into my analysis: I will discuss the one person I feel I have a strong scum read on right now. Unfortunately, due to the time it took to put this together, the second person I originally planned will have to wait...: Prometheax is the first of these. I'm not trying to come into a position of OMGUS here, but it really feels like his arguments were poorly put together, as if he was going out of his way to try to find statements that condemn the current subject of scrutiny to put him in a better light. I find it interesting that instead of address directly Keir's suspicions about him he decides to go after me. It feels like a move that allows him to blend in, or (in other words) scummy. Let's start by looking at what Prometheax has to say about me. I will address his case against me and my scum read on him both at the same time. First, one small thing about your symantics: You call it "A case for Goodkarma." Why don't you call it "My case for Goodkarma?" You need to stand behind what you write. A minor point, but deserves +1 scum points in my mind. But onto the arguement, with my comments in italics: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Back, after the night deadline but still back. I feel really bad about the minimal amount of time I've been putting into this game. I would like to say I'm sorry to my fellow towines and you're welcome to all the scum players.
Keir: I /in'd this game even with limited time because I really like playing this game. I find joy in it and chose to play for that joy. I had more free time when I /in'd which was about six years before this game actually started as you may remember. I recently switched to night shifts and one of my co-workers in on vacation so I'm working fifty hours weeks mostly between dusk and dawn. I am trying to put real thoughts into my posts and give you something to work with, in all honesty I think the fact that you had me so pegged in XIX should help you here, keep an eye on me look deep into my filter whatever it is you want to do. Just know that town and I hope that my posting will prove that to you.
I was tunneling Shady because he is playing scummily. I am, as I write this, looking into other people and making a case or two.
I've been going back and forth in my head on the issue of where scum voted, I originally thought that Golbat couldn't have all the scum on him and than I started to think, it is day one so mislynching doesn't reflect too badly on you, bad day one reads are a fact to most players of mafia, TL mafia players don't believe in thinking through day one like any other day. But a no-lynch would be a problem for mafia, they need to kill us quickly so I was wondering about the last vote(s) on Golbat maybe a scum came over to hammer him, although as town I too would switch to ensure a lynch on d1. As such I'll be looking particularly closely at SS and Zork but am not entering their filters with the assumption that they are scum based on their votes.
I'd like to take a moment to laugh about this NK, that is 100% percent of my town games where there has been an unexplained lack of a night hit.
@(probably)The Medic: you da man. I just want to remind you that the Roleblocker might have blocked scum so you don't have a 100% green guy and RB, the medic might have saved so you don't have a 100% red guy. It isn't worth revealing yourself over this information, keep doing what you are doing and: thanks!
On Zork, I've just read through your filter and while I don't get any real scum vibes from you (besides hammering a vigi) I also don't get townie vibes. The most important thing a townie can do is prove themselves town. Make cases, your defense, while probably true that you are/were busy doesn't add anything to town just as the fact that I was working a lot adds nothing. Make some cases backed up with evidence and commit to some reads, if you are town this helps town and if you are scum this helps town since you have to appear town let me say this: if you continue without making a case I will view you as scum. Don't leave yourself so many outs; tell us what you think of somebody and why. On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:
snippy snippy
I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful.
Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me.
snip snip Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. So yes, this is by my definition "lurker." People who have been sitting around, post meaningless crap, and then go back to doing nothing. Unless you think I meant people who don't post at all, but I don't see how that's what you could think since those guys get modkilled. So, it would seem that I have been seeking the same type of policy lynch all day one. No surprises there...Regarding his quote below: Prometheax, why not the full quote? Oh wait, you're in it. Nothing too condemning, but interesting to note that back then you were sitting around, not posting much. Right now, you’re making your first big case. I don’t consider this suspicious in itself, but I do find it suspicious that you would deliberately “snip snip” omit yourself. And I’m no hypocrite. It’s spoilered for clarity:+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:I'm hesitant to join the Mordanis lynch bandwagon. Mordanis's arguements were definitely incredibly flimsy, but I find it hard to believe that a mafia would stick his neck out that far when it seems many successful mafia are content to stick their heads in the sand. His opening statement indicates he desires to start a hunt for who's mafia: Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:
Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game:
It's also worth noting he has not yet explicitly voted for who he accused. I don't feel we can find that guy with one flimsy lynch arguement and assume he's guilty, especially when it's the first arguement of the game. I don't see him having any investment in who's accused if he's really mafia, especially when most day one lynchings tend to hit town. I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful. Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me. For these reasons, my top picks right now are: Ayruujin has had a minimal number of posts about very little. He's been lurking, and while people may disagree, I'm all for trying lurkers on day 1. We don't have a lot to go on, and it feels more probable to me that a lurker will turn mafia than someone who makes a stupid arguement and is jumping at the opportunity to get hanged. MrMedic, who's had plenty of posts that amount to nothing. He could be a bad town, but it also could mean mafia. Promethelax (to a far lesser degree), who's claiming an irl excuse. I understand irl commitments can keep us from doing fun things, but if it becomes a habit that keeps you from posting then you're on my suspect list. This is more of an example of what I consider a scummy play more than a suspect person. It's too early to tell here.As outlined above I consider Ayruujin suspect and am therefore voting for him. ##Vote AyruujinCould Mordanis be mafia? Most definitely. But as I've discussed above I feel that his play would be a poor one if he were really mafia. Ayruujin's lurking is more suspicious to me right now. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote:
I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two.
-SNIP-
TL;DR:
My call to action:
Lurkers will perish
If you will follow my vote
aRyuujin you're first Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? No I didn’t buddy. In this posting I’m still after lurkers. You’re making up something that just isn’t there...He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. I said that establishing an environment of critical discussion is important, and to that end, lynching a lurker can provide some benefit to town. Nowhere did I say "let's kill our confirmed pants-on-head retarded townies." I want the "damning quote" from you here, as all I'm seeing is unsubstantiated speculation. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. On July 29 2012 03:25 goodkarma wrote:I am going to change my vote, but first I'd like to explain a few things. Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. -SNIPPY- Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin##Vote GolbatPS: + Show Spoiler +I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. When you claim I “knew he would flip town,” you missed two very important words in that post: IN RETROSPECT. That post you are quoting is my attempt to put some light on how town can go about scum-hunting so that we don’t have another lynch like Golbat. It was a reassessment of what got him lynched and my stance on him. It wasn’t some “I told you so but didn’t stand by my convictions” post. Try to put yourself in your suspect’s shoes, and see if their actions make sense if they are town. I would say that a serious reassessment of how we hunt for scum would fit for a town. I don’t claim credit for knowing Golbat is town anywhere in that post. You either have serious issues reading, or you are desperately trying to find something that sticks to get town points.That is what I have for now. I hope you all will look at my case on SS from yesterday as I still feel that he is scummy, with this new look at Karma though I think that he may be even scummier. Right now I am torn between these two for my vote; I know its still early but I want to lynch scum our Power Role (or scum incompetence) has bought us an extra day, I plan on not letting it go to waste. This isn’t completely out of the blue. I originally had you on my list of suspects. And that is for this one post, another which you seem to have selectively forgotten: Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 23:18 Promethelax wrote:On July 29 2012 00:39 Keirathi wrote:@Promethelax Really? You were gone for 14 hours and that's all you have to comment on? What are your current feelings on my Golbat case? Mordanis? goodkarma?What about people like aRyuujin who was getting some heat as well? I don't understand how "townie" Promethelax can be a worse player than the scum Promethelax I played with in XIX.
Shady SandsThe main argument against him seems to be him saying + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 20:39 Shady Sands wrote:
1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range
2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure. . I maintain that this kind of connection theory isn't in and of itself alignment indicative. For instance, from my last game (I Can't Believe Its Not Themed [non-newbie game]) + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2012 08:10 Risen wrote:
Why should we not lynch you? Your flip gives us so much information. If you're scum Mattchew is in a rough spot, if you're town scib/Keir are pretty much dead men (unless mason claim) . This was said by our COP. My only grief with what Shady said is that it's a bit too early in the game, and any hard connection theories are purely speculation until a flip. He gets some townie points back though for his active scumhunting. I dunno if he's been right or not, but he has what no one else has had yet this game: conviction. He lays out his reads without caring what other people think of them. He's pushed cases on Mordanis and Golbat that for the most part had solid reasoning based on fact and logic rather than WIFOM. Honestly, I find the townie points in his filter to outweigh his scummy points, and therefor I would be highly against with lynching Shady today. There are just flat-out better candidates imo. As to your points I can't argue that I am not playing as well as I was when I knew everyone's alignment. I have to play blind which is not easy for me, I'm working on figuring out what I think of people and Shady is, in my opinion, the most scummy of players in this game. I didn't comment on Golbat/Mordanis because I think the whole thing between them is dumb. They seem (to me) to be two guys going at each others throats with a whole lot of vigor but very little proof. No cases on either of them have been convincing to me, I will look over yours again though with the no bias instead of my: ignore these nubs bias. I commented on what I had time to comment on. I don't have as much free time as I did when XIX was going on which is why you are seeing the drop in my play. ah, just read the day post. I guess I'll re-read looking at Golbat as one of us. I'm sorry I wasn't here near the end of day 1 to push Shady since pretty much anyone would have been better than a town vigi. I still feel that Shady is the most scummy player thus far but haven't yet had time to do more than a first read through the thread. I worked a 13 hour shift and I'm dead tired. I'm putting this into the thread now so that I can make sure my reads are in the thread in case I die tonight. I will be awake before the night deadline tomorrow to post again in case I feel the need to get more reads into the thread. Keir: talk to me about your thoughts on other people now that Golbat has flipped green. What connections do you see? Who is the scummiest player to you now and why? On July 29 2012 14:39 Shady Sands wrote:On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote:
In regards to my activity, should be able to pick it up by Monday if I haven't been decimated. Going for quality over quantity til the wedding stuff (not my wedding) is finished. (double spacing to keep things grouped) Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. One thing that is important for everyone in town to start watching for now is activity patterns and posting patterns. Scum will tend to post with an identifiable ringleader and others following in their footsteps... and they will often all make excuses about IRL commitments to assuage any doubts about odd patterns in their collective posting histories. This seems like a pile of horse shit to me. Obvious is a null read for me, I'm not defending him at all. (anyone who knows they will have things that will eat into their game time should claim it, seriously) Shady really wants us to think that having to go to a wedding is a scum tell though. That is at least as silly as people saying that I am lurking while I'm at work. I could be lying about that I guess but why would I? I like playing this game which is why I signed up for it and, when I'm around, I play it like crazy. On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote:On July 29 2012 06:56 MrMedic wrote:
I am back, I am very sorry I was unexpecditatly very busy. But now my sechdule is free. Welcome back. Since you skipped out on the vote, I think it's only fair you give us an update on who you feel is scummy and why. I've read through some of your posting history, and understand that what you've been posting to date is fairly consistent with how you've posted with other threads in the past. I feel I may have come down a bit hard on you earlier with your first attempt at real analysis. I just want to ask you not to feel discouraged, and encourage you to give it another try . This is a newbie game after all, and we're all still trying to figure out how to play this game. And regarding some general questions about a few of my actions, most of it I feel I've already covered in prior posts and will not repeat myself here. There is, however, one point that I would like to discuss a little further. And that is why I selectively set out after aRyuujin. I laid out a few other "lurkers," including people such as MrMedic, Obvious, and Zorkmid. So why did I only set after aRyuujin? It had to do with two factors: 1) posting history and general activity outside this thread 2) writing style and post readability Why aRyuujin sticks out here: 1) I will confess I was a little more whimsical in choosing him on this point than I should have been. I remember looking at one of his posts that was two hours later in another thread than his last mafia post and going "Why didn't he post again in the mafia thread? He still hasn't contributed anything..." But in retrospect, I stand by my decision. Stylistically he doesn't always use haiku in his posts. This choice could have been intentional, so it warranted further investigation. 2) Obviously, haikus obfuscated everything he posted, hiding any real chance at reading his intentions. I may have come across as some madman who wanted to lynch only on policy and not on other qualities but there is some method to my madness. It's been brought up that I should have gone after all of them. The problem with that is that I only have one vote. It would be kind of meaningless to pressure all the people on my "lurker list," as they could just sit there and be like "my bad." You pressure one of them with a vote and you can get a real response, as was the case with aRyuujin. With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours. Talking about that shit is again the rules (I'm pretty sure). Keep your head down dude, we can only refer to posts outside the thread for 1) Meta and 2) nothing else. I'm quite pleased that he isn;t posting in Haiku though and I feel that stopping is a townie trait since he could have continued to post in a way that was annoying to some but not enough to get him lynched (in my opinion, I would have fought hard, assuming I was here, against a lynch based on being annoyed by his posting style) and hidden or obscured his thoughts; changing his style seems townie to me but he (super super WIFOM here) have read MTG mini 1 where Marv says almost the same thing about Mattchew and decided to replicate the strategy so, while it puts him in my green column it isn't very far in. I'll post again in an hour or so before the sleep madness takes over. Here, he tells me that looking into aRyuujin’s posting history is “illegal,” even though nowhere can I find anything that tells me it is. From looking into aRyuujin’s posting history, I inferred he had some time to make posts of higher quality than the “lurk-quality” type posts he’s put out. I’m under the impression that Prox didn’t want me probing into his own. It is my understanding this type of analysis is not against the rules, and until I’m informed it is I’m going to follow up on it. Prox has similar type patterns in one or two places. The time gaps are a little small, but given his experience in this game I am certain that if he wanted to he could have diverted the time from posting in other threads into this one to make some more analytical posts of at the quality we’ve seen today. That is my guess as to why I got this kind of reply from him, and I’m only making this statement based on his reply. Upon a cursory look at the time gaps, they seem small enough I would have thought nothing of them and moved on, except that he brought it up as something I should never pursue again. Honestly this wasn’t enough alone to make me think of him as a prime suspect, but combined with his flimsy case for me (or should I say “a” flimsy case for me) I have put him close to the top of my list. And then there was this, which gave him the first place prize: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 10:20 Promethelax wrote:On July 30 2012 10:15 Keirathi wrote:On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Back, after the night deadline but still back. I feel really bad about the minimal amount of time I've been putting into this game. I would like to say I'm sorry to my fellow towines and you're welcome to all the scum players. Keir: I /in'd this game even with limited time because I really like playing this game. I find joy in it and chose to play for that joy. I had more free time when I /in'd which was about six years before this game actually started as you may remember. I recently switched to night shifts and one of my co-workers in on vacation so I'm working fifty hours weeks mostly between dusk and dawn. I am trying to put real thoughts into my posts and give you something to work with, in all honesty I think the fact that you had me so pegged in XIX should help you here, keep an eye on me look deep into my filter whatever it is you want to do. Just know that town and I hope that my posting will prove that to you. I was tunneling Shady because he is playing scummily. I am, as I write this, looking into other people and making a case or two. I've been going back and forth in my head on the issue of where scum voted, I originally thought that Golbat couldn't have all the scum on him and than I started to think, it is day one so mislynching doesn't reflect too badly on you, bad day one reads are a fact to most players of mafia, TL mafia players don't believe in thinking through day one like any other day. But a no-lynch would be a problem for mafia, they need to kill us quickly so I was wondering about the last vote(s) on Golbat maybe a scum came over to hammer him, although as town I too would switch to ensure a lynch on d1. As such I'll be looking particularly closely at SS and Zork but am not entering their filters with the assumption that they are scum based on their votes. I'd like to take a moment to laugh about this NK, that is 100% percent of my town games where there has been an unexplained lack of a night hit. @(probably)The Medic: you da man. I just want to remind you that the Roleblocker might have blocked scum so you don't have a 100% green guy and RB, the medic might have saved so you don't have a 100% red guy. It isn't worth revealing yourself over this information, keep doing what you are doing and: thanks! On Zork, I've just read through your filter and while I don't get any real scum vibes from you (besides hammering a vigi) I also don't get townie vibes. The most important thing a townie can do is prove themselves town. Make cases, your defense, while probably true that you are/were busy doesn't add anything to town just as the fact that I was working a lot adds nothing. Make some cases backed up with evidence and commit to some reads, if you are town this helps town and if you are scum this helps town since you have to appear town let me say this: if you continue without making a case I will view you as scum. Don't leave yourself so many outs; tell us what you think of somebody and why. On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:
snippy snippy
I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful.
Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me.
snip snip Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote:
I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two.
-SNIP-
TL;DR:
My call to action:
Lurkers will perish
If you will follow my vote
aRyuujin you're first Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. On July 29 2012 03:25 goodkarma wrote:I am going to change my vote, but first I'd like to explain a few things. Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. -SNIPPY- Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin##Vote GolbatPS: + Show Spoiler +I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. That is what I have for now. I hope you all will look at my case on SS from yesterday as I still feel that he is scummy, with this new look at Karma though I think that he may be even scummier. Right now I am torn between these two for my vote; I know its still early but I want to lynch scum our Power Role (or scum incompetence) has bought us an extra day, I plan on not letting it go to waste. Thank you. A well-reasoned and convincing argument like I know you are capable of. I've definitely had some suspicions of Karma, and this makes me more wary of him going forward. On July 30 2012 10:07 Zorkmid wrote:
Sorry, you're right.
Apologies for the tone of last post. DON'T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN! No, I'm kidding. I understand this game can be extremely frustrating when you feel like your back is against the wall. Just work on proving your innocence through your future actions. Look bud, I want to be able to trust you. You are the player in this game that I respect the most. Give me some cases to work with that I know YOU are capable of. You are good at being town, prove to me that you are town so that we can have a town circle ( town line, lol) and some town beers or wahtever it is that townies do. I'm new at this not being red (or retardedly worse than everyone else) thing. Who are your biggest scum reads right now and why. Can you say “town” enough times? It’s clear here that you feel your first large-content post has gained you trust and “townie-points” with others here. You make a power play here when you introduce the idea of the “town line.” It is certainly good for us clear each other from suspicion, and have those we can trust. But he’s just basically gone from in the background to into the forefront in a very short period of time. What motivated the change of pace? I understand this is the weekend and he has been very busy and tired during the week. Okay. But from this post it looks to me like he is trying to wedge himself into a position as a “town leader” while there’s still time for him this weekend.
First, why I don’t feel anyone trying to establish themselves as a “town leader” is a good thing. It encourages town to follow a few prevailing cases like sheep. That puts the town into the position of hoping that their leaders aren’t mafia. If they are then mafia wins. Prox has already made such a play as mafia in the past, and I see no reason he couldn’t be trying to do the same thing here. What town really needs to have a shot at this is a very vocal populace producing a variety of different opinions and arguments based off their own observations and best reads. Pushing for a town leadership this openly and abruptly simply isn’t pro-town.
Even if he were of the belief that an established town leadership is a good thing, how is it he would think as a townie that it is a good idea for him to step forward as a leader when with his “limited time” he can’t put in the time needed to present arguments (except maybe on weekends)? It just doesn’t make sense to me. Something doesn’t add up here.
I have spent way too long typing this up. I look forward to hearing Prox’s response. His sudden change of behavior, along with some of the things he’s had to say, leaves him as my top suspect. I might come back to check up on this thread yet tonight, but I’m not typing any more involved posts like this today… sorry. That being said, you can look forward to more involved posts like this as we progress through this game .
You can add tonight's developments of him deliberately wasting my time by not really explaining what the hell he wanted out of my response to a case we agree on. It's hard to add value to what is already fairly self evident.
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On July 30 2012 15:29 Promethelax wrote:
No man, the Mystery Scum thing was at GK. You are good.
I'm glad you agree with me, that is an opinion. I wanted you to add something though instead of simply agreeing. You have said what you think of my case and I appreciate that. You didn't waste your time my man, don;t be so quick to anger. My response that you misunderstood was not directed at you.
Keir: since you are here what do you think of GK's case? Since you and I agree that he looks scummy how do you think he has done with his new case?
Well shit, I didn't see this. My apologies, I'm still not properly coffee'd up. Time for more coffee. I drink Maxwell House, I just wish I had some vanilla creamer. I'm also still confused as to what you wanted that was new when you had already spelled out most of it. I was just fueling the fire with my own take on it, after also picking up the tell that ended up being my reason for voting for him D1. Zeratul help us if we're wrong. Should we just let this back and forth between us about SS go for now and revisit it when it becomes an issue again?
I'll look at the other cases (those who didn't vote for Golbat, since we've been beating that drum during the night, a fresh approach would be good) and see if I can make any sense out of them and give you my take.
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Of the remaining people, outside of myself and Promethelax, we have alan133 and DarthPunk who did not vote for Golbat. Since I have already gone back and forth with Promethelax and found his reasons for voting for Shady Sands similar to but above and beyond my own, there are two players remaining to look at.
First I'll take a look at alan133's posts:
Some behavior analysis: consistent in his methods for determining his best scum target. His vote on Shady Sands was not willy-nilly, and he considered the cases against Golbat and Mordanis as well before casting his vote. Solid play on this end, in my opinion, at least throughout D1.
On July 29 2012 03:55 alan133 wrote:
However, loosely quoting someone: "The goal of lynching is to get scum", I am still in favor of Shady lynch instead of Golbat for I believe the former has a much higher chance to flip scum, in other words, I am keeping my vote, unless it is really necessary for me to switch to make a lynch happen, but I will probably be sleeping as the vote is tally. I urge all who has not voted (or already voted but not into the potential lynch target) to reconsider their votes aiming for a lynch.
At this point there were 5 votes for Golbat. Two possibilities for this rather well timed post:
Town alan133 wants to make sure we don't get into a no-lynch scenario, as that gives us little to work with for actual information that can be 100% confirmed (a flip)
or
Scum alan133 is setting himself up to ensure a mislynch won't end up looking bad on him if he has to put his vote in as the one of the last people on the Golbat vote list.
Of these two scenarios, I'm more easily convinced that alan133 is acting in the best interests of the town. I did want to mention this though if any suspicions arise regarding his votes or actions in the future.
I have a question for alan133:
How did you make sense of goodkarma's post regarding Keirathi? I'm not really able to pinpoint exactly where that case even is, so you'll need to point it out for me, please.
DarthPunk's filter:
So the first thing I notice after processing the first half of my post here is that DarthPunk and alan133 both ended up posting around the time where Golbat was at 5 votes. DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynch with his post 40 minutes later. Sounds appropriate given the situation, from a town perspective. But again, we're at the two scenarios as above where we're either seeing avoiding looking bad for the mislynch, or staying around to ensure there is a lynch.
It seems his main reason for staying on Mordanis is motivated by finding Mordanis' play as confusing to the town as well as not being convinced about his own case(s).
So are they connected somehow?
Outside of their willingness to switch votes, here's all I can see:
- No direct mention of alan133 in DarthPunk's filter.
- alan133 doesn't agree with DarthPunk's assessment of Mordanis in this post:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 12:23 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 11:54 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 10:17 DarthPunk wrote:So I just read through the thread and the first post that really sprang out at me was this. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. So after some policy discussion Mordanis makes his case against Keirathi. After some WIFOM we get to this - If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. So Keirathi is blue and we are in bad shape if he is NK/Lynched. but then we get to this: If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And this: So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Twice stating that Keirath is is our best lynch at the moment which is a direct contradiction to his other premise. he ends with this: I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now So after backflipping from his first premise (that it would be terribad for Keirathi to be NK and an even worse for us to mislynch him), and TWICE stating that Keirathi is our best Lynch. Mordanis decides that it isn't wise to commit right now after all. This post was WIFOM, contradiction and confusion. At best it is saying something while saying nothing. At worst it is a deliberate attempt of scum to mislynch their blue read day 1. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. Yeah it does doesn't it. FoS Mordanis I'm not sure we can use internal contradictions between Mordanis' three different points as evidence, given that they are illustrating three different "what-ifs". That being said, though, his logic as to why point #2 is the least likely and point #3 is the most likely doesn't hold water (or rather, doesn't exist), and each of his points are pretty farfetched. I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself. Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching. -He posts 3 different scenario's on Keir which contradicted one another (he states these as a 'case', whatever). 2 of the 3 have Keir as a blue and the third as scum. Yet he still sees Keir as the best lynch. The case is completely confused and without a logical narrative, based on a 'virtual claim' by Keirathi that I honestly don't think is there. There is no reason whatsoever that I can think of to make a case with internal contradictions. Am I missing something here? -It is statistically likely that he will flip green. but you can say that about anyone. If you think he is town or not suspicious don't vote for him. Read filters, make a case etc.
For this reason:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 12:46 alan133 wrote:I refreshed to forum I see Mordanis is currently under fire for his post. After reading Darth's case I don't think he is a good day 1 lynch for the following reason. - The only fault I see in his post is that Mordanis put words into Keirathi's mouth, with his sketchy logic based on his assumption that Kei role claimed.
- Those "contradictory" scenarios are not contradictory because it is not related to each other.
- Mordanis is the first person to bring out a case. Ignoring WIFOM, this is a town favored trait.
I don't see any obvious connections here. The only things they had in common so far really was they didn't vote for Golbat, and both were willing to change votes. This tells me nothing of either of them individually but leads me to believe that they are not necessarily of the same alignment.
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On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
I don't see any obvious connections here. The only things they had in common so far really was they didn't vote for Golbat, and both were willing to change votes. This tells me nothing of either of them individually but leads me to believe that they are not necessarily of the same alignment.
EBWOP: To clarify, I say this because I do not believe that all three scum would have piled on the Golbat vote.
I forgot about Promethelax being on the list of those who didn't vote for Golbat when I wrapped up, so technically this conclusion can be wrong. However, I've not been able to find any conclusive evidence that Promethelax is engaging in scummy behavior so I'm leaning town for him presently.
Subject to change. Terms and conditions may apply. See store for details.
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On July 31 2012 00:36 Shady Sands wrote:Here is the link to the number of possible scum in a C9++ format: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++#Scum_RolesShow nested quote +Scum Roles
TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather It will be a random selection from one of those options, which means either 2 or 3 scum are possible. I'm not sure how Obvious knows there are three scum.
Oh, there isn't a set number in this game? Well, thanks for bringing that to my attention. I've been looking at XXI since it ended last night and I keep thinking this game has 3 as well. So there could be more or less. I'd spend time looking at other C9++ games but that would just be more time spent outside the thread. Glad you corrected me on this, thanks. Honest mistake.
On July 31 2012 00:43 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynch with his post 40 minutes later. Sounds appropriate given the situation, from a town perspective. But again, we're at the two scenarios as above where we're either seeing avoiding looking bad for the mislynch, or staying around to ensure there is a lynch. OK when I read this I lol'd. This is just wrong and made me question whether he even read my filter. Let me clear things up for you. Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 04:35 DarthPunk wrote:
With that being said at the moment we are headed towards a no lynch which I am certainly not in favour of. I am willing to alter my vote to ensure this does not happen. Hopefully this gets resolved shortly as I would love to get some sleep. So after reading this post. you summarize it as this: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynch Where did I say I would vote for Golbat? I voted for my best read. I didn't want a no-lynch and as my biggest scum read was pushing the case and band-waggoning his main rival for the lynch concurrently I didn't really want to vote for either of them. You entirely misrepresented what I said and I fail to see the reason behind it. I need to read your filter very carefully.
You are correct, and that should have read no-lynch, not mislynch. Consider your correction my EBWOP.
Coffee didn't help I guess, errors abound, so off to sleep I go. See you later after RAW ~12 hrs.
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I'm here to chat with you if you need a sound board, Mordanis. Been trying to organize my thoughts on a case for the past hour and I'm struggling to get anything coherent to come through the fog right now. So far the only thing that it has really occurred to me to look at is identifying who I think have had the most advanced cases (I don't consider mine that advanced, for those wondering) and working backwards from there. I'm also sort of concerned there were no solid votes outside of getting GK to explain his "mystery person" behavior, which was later retracted after GK's explanation.
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We would be wasting time talking about MrMedic currently, as there's not much there to go off of. We can clear it up with the host(s) how this scenario will be dealt with pretty easily. He will have a lot of explaining to do if he does show up though, almost to the point where it could be distracting us from our other cases.
If MrMedic is modkilled tonight, will he be replaced or simply dead?
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On July 31 2012 16:51 Mordanis wrote:
One of the main things I've been thinking of looking for is instances of players either stalling scum-hunting with policy and also players who have only been posting when pressured to. Over that, perhaps a player who has no chance of being lynched until a certain set of criteria are met. In my thought patterns this could be used by scum to stall lynches, both on that specific player and the other scum. Other than that, hard to explain teamwork would be great. Caffeine hasn't caught up with me yet though, BRB.
See one of my more recent posts for my thoughts on alan133 and DarthPunk. As mentioned later in the thread and I quoted him in my response to it, Shady Sands pointed out that there could be two OR three scum in this game (C9++ basis) which seems to me like it's kind of a big deal when it comes down to looking at votes/patterns as the game progresses. This also means that my conclusion doesn't necessarily add up in the case I made that one of them would flip scum, so I need to withdraw that claim for now. I can see a 2-scum team both voting for Golbat considering how "easy" a case it was.
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On July 31 2012 17:53 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 17:17 Obvious.660 wrote:
See one of my more recent posts for my thoughts on alan133 and DarthPunk. Might be best to also make him aware of how you used a complete misrepresentation of what I actually posted to come to your conclusion. The fact that after I corrected you, you are still willing to refer people to that post without any clarification on how misleading/wrong it was is astounding.
Just so it's in my filter again, Darth. I am admitting to typing the wrong word at 5:57AM my time. Again. You seem to think this was intentional. I'm sorry.
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On July 29 2012 04:35 DarthPunk wrote:
With that being said at the moment we are headed towards a no lynch which I am certainly not in favour of. I am willing to alter my vote to ensure this does not happen. Hopefully this gets resolved shortly as I would love to get some sleep.
The correction would read:
On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynchNO LYNCH
'mislynch' replaced by 'no lynch', do you still take issue with the intent here?
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I wrote down two suspicious names in notepad about 24 hours ago, one of which was Zorkmid.
Ange777 just brought this up, and I'm inclined to agree with it:
On July 31 2012 04:47 Zorkmid wrote:
I don't have any strong scum reads at this point at all, and the whole Golbat thing leaves me gun shy to start pushing up on another active poster. Unless I reach some epiphany soon, or am convinced by someones case, my next vote will likely fall upon a lurker.
@Zorkmid, make the best case you can and post it. It's okay to be wrong, that's part of the game. Remember, you only know two things, your role and that Golbat was vig (and any subsequent flips on death). The rest is speculation and analysis, which is what each of us is trying to do. Weigh your case against the ones of others and make your choice. Get yourself out of the active lurker category and show us you're a part of the town.
Ironically enough, the other name was Ange777. And they're scrutinizing eachother. Might be something to look at here. At least for now, neither is more suspicious to me than Shady Sands. Very soon, I'm probably going to state my vote. The feeling I have is that Zorkmid would be a better candidate (of the two) based on not bringing anything new to the table.
Can't remember why I was looking at Ange777. Might have been because Ange777 was shutting down policy talk while talking up inactivity.
@Ange777: What do you make of alan133? Seems like two distinct writing styles are emergent in his last few posts.
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On July 31 2012 18:29 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 18:26 Obvious.660 wrote:On July 29 2012 04:35 DarthPunk wrote:
With that being said at the moment we are headed towards a no lynch which I am certainly not in favour of. I am willing to alter my vote to ensure this does not happen. Hopefully this gets resolved shortly as I would love to get some sleep. The correction would read: On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:
DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynchNO LYNCH 'mislynch' replaced by 'no lynch', do you still take issue with the intent here? Yes. please read above post.
Let me see if I'm following you.
You want me to clarify that you would have voted for anyone,
not just specifically Golbat, but anyone,
if it was coming close to crunch time with no clear successful lynch in sight,
in order to obtain a lynch (also known as avoiding a no-lynch),
no matter who it was?
Is that it?
If this doesn't answer it, I'm just going to have to ask someone else: Anyone who is not DarthPunk please tell me what he's talking about?
You seem really worried about being associated with the Golbat case, btw.
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On July 31 2012 18:45 Ange777 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 18:41 Obvious.660 wrote:
Can't remember why I was looking at Ange777. Might have been because Ange777 was shutting down policy talk while talking up inactivity.
@Ange777: What do you make of alan133? Seems like two distinct writing styles are emergent in his last few posts.
Where have I been talking up inactivity? I'll have to go through alan's filter again before I can answer.
You mentioned me, aRyuu, and Medic in the post. It was probably just a point of information, but it was (as it was so well put in the thread) bum fuck o'clock in the morning. Just gave myself something to look at today. You're pretty much a near-null read to me right now, FWIW. Post link: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15622333
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Oh, I'm sorry. It's a colloqualism I use to mean "bring it up". Apologies.
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On July 31 2012 19:13 Ange777 wrote:That post you quoted was a direct answer to Promethelax. He had made the case against Zork and asked me who else I thought was inactive at that time. Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 19:22 Ange777 wrote:
@Promethelax:
While I agree with your suspicions on Zorkmid there are several players who need to step up their game. Posting fluff is not helping town at all! Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 19:28 Promethelax wrote:
Which others players do you feel need to be looked at besides Zork? He clearly isn't the only guy who seems a little red, I just felt that he was flying too far under the radar. Timing might have been unfortunate for you but you were pretty much inactive at that time. So I don't see anything wrong with my statement. Yes, I see no actual problem with this now (being a little clearer of mind), just explaining how you ended up on the list yesterday when I was very tired. Thanks for clearing that up with me. I was definitely not very active until Monday and can see how my play definitely came off as a lurker.
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On July 31 2012 19:39 Ange777 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 18:41 Obvious.660 wrote:
@Ange777: What do you make of alan133? Seems like two distinct writing styles are emergent in his last few posts.
What do you mean by writing style? I re-read his last posts again and tried to compare it to his filter in general but I really don't know what you are hinting at. Reading his filter alone just gives me a null read, I have to see how he interacts with others.
I solved the mystery of this for myself, actually. alan133 lives in Malaysia and I just now realized the implications. For reference, if I were to read this out loud:On July 31 2012 14:23 alan133 wrote:
I re-read your filter and realize I might be locked on you around conformation bias. I do notice your cases on a few people when I wrote my case on you, but I read you were merely rehashing what other people has done and you were very non-committal. Upon closer inspection the cases were actually based on cold hard facts instead of WIFOM, and you did indicate if these actions by other players were scummy or not. Your argument about compiling all evidence into one post starts to make sense and I do see townie motivation now. the underlined parts stick out as grammar errors. They are infrequent though, which misled me into believing that it could be multiple authors. However, I am just an ignorant adolescent living in the USA and thus, my argument is void.
When I read that I say "realized" and "did" in place of those words and it makes total sense.
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I'm sticking to my vote for Shady Sands today.
##VOTE Shady Sands
Night1:
On July 29 2012 14:39 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote:
In regards to my activity, should be able to pick it up by Monday if I haven't been decimated. Going for quality over quantity til the wedding stuff (not my wedding) is finished. (double spacing to keep things grouped) Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. One thing that is important for everyone in town to start watching for now is activity patterns and posting patterns. Scum will tend to post with an identifiable ringleader and others following in their footsteps... and they will often all make excuses about IRL commitments to assuage any doubts about odd patterns in their collective posting histories. Show nested quote +So here's what I'm putting together from all of this:
Shady Sands' play is rather deliberately confusing and time wasting:
1) Bringing in statistics without identifying exactly how they were obtained, ergo they were not easily identifiable as a lie
>>>>Lots of time is wasted on people focusing on the stats, trying to verify them, instead of spending time looking at what is more readily confirmed: anything in the thread.
2) Trying to understand what he meant by what flips reveal about the surviving town members, before any other deaths occured
>>>>This will end up being a bunch of circular logic on Day 1 given that no other information is known to plain old town members. Delays relevant conversation away from today's discussion and focuses on tomorrows.
3) Being willing to let someone who he considers definitely scum survive the night
>>>>No. We always kill scum, potentially removing scum power roles in the process.
4) While in the process of writing this, Shady has claimed that I voted for Golbat.
>>>>This is wrong, as my vote was on Shady. More misdirection/confusion. 1) Again, sorry for bringing in statistics without sourcing them properly, but that's at least something substantive to debate on 2 and 3) The discussion was on whether to lynch Mordanis or Golbat. We lynched Golbat because he looked the scummiest. The added light Golbat could share on Mordanis was just a bonus, and the discussion never said that it was anything except that. 4) That was an honest mistake--thought Obvious switched to Golbat by the end. Even so, though, my original point still holds: Why would he jump into the thread right after Golbat got lynched, but not before, even though he voted against the Golbat lynching? I would imagine that he'd be interested in persuading other people of the merits of your vote, but he didn't do so. That seems pretty scummy/strange to me.
1: Forgivable in a vacuum...
2/3: I have to correct you on this: he was the "easiest to label scum" not necessarily the scummiest. Not everyone voted for Golbat so you can't say he was the scummiest without the 10 (as in all except himself and MrMedic who failed to vote) active votes on him.
4: The easiest out for an Obvious.660 scum would have been to agree that Golbat's play was definitely scum for constantly changing his mind and dropping a list of a bunch of town reads on the table, while ignoring the fact that this is a newbie game where (though we aren't supposed to bring it up, lest we be smote) we're going to make newbie mistakes. As I already explained, the timing of the post holds no mystery; that's the moment when I got finished catching up on the thread.
Day2:
All but one of his posts before his unexpected departure in the night were related to the game mechanics.
>>>>Null points: Role conversation
>>>>Pro-town points: his clarification posts that there are not necessarily three scum in the game.
Shady's last content post:
On July 31 2012 00:39 Shady Sands wrote:
Darth, I'm getting really bad vibes about Promethelax's "town circle"/"town leadership" ideas as well. No idea why he would choose to lurk D1 and then immediately start to argue for something like this so quickly.
Promethelax has explained this and noted he will be going back to his D1 habits because work. This hasn't done anything to promote positive town developments, so my read hasn't shifted towards green. An otherwise quiet ~36 hours.
Promethelax said it best:
On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find.
Don't know if I'll make it back before lynch time. I'll try to get up sooner than later to check on our status before deadline arrives.
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@JingleHell welcome. Please don't Bull Murray me. <3 NOR AM I OBVIOUS SCUM. Fuck, I survived past day one, this game is an improvement for me.
@Promethelax sorry to see you got got. I fear the connection we shared doesn't bode well for me and that I will be joining you. See you soon!
If my understanding is correct, a majority of the suspicion about me stems from posting "What the fuck?" not long after the Golbat flip? LOL.
Shady, your visit with a lawyer on behalf of your brother does not exonerate you from lurking for 2 real days, either. If you're allowed to visit a lawyer, I'm allowed to sleep or whatever it is I'm doing. It's a wash. Can we all move past the excuses portion of the game and focus on actual scum hunting? That's the kind of shit that helped get Promethelax whacked. So unless that's your intent, make better cases or I'm just going to continue voting for you until you flip.
It took me about 4 posts to understand the issue that DarthPunk took with what I wrote about him yesterday. All I can say is that the motive behind what I wrote was that Golbat was the best contender for lynch based on votes D1 by being at 5 votes AT THE TIME OF YOUR POST! I wrote Golbat in the post where I could have written "whoever" or whatever is more pleasing to your desire to be apart from the mislynch to make the point that you did not vote for him willingly. Once again, sorry for being too specific. I will make it a point to be very vague and mysterious in the future when I'm scum hunting against you.
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On August 01 2012 13:11 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2012 11:59 Obvious.660 wrote:
If my understanding is correct, a majority of the suspicion about me stems from posting "What the fuck?" not long after the Golbat flip? LOL.
Seriously? Thats the most massive over-generalization I've ever seen. The "What the fuck" point was just icing on the cake. And it wasn't even about what you said, it was when you said it. After saying you didn't think you would be around for the end of the day (but that if you were, you would give some insight), you show up exactly 3 minutes after the flip to admonish the Vig lynch. For reference as to things about you I find scummy outside of the post-flip timing: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15660499Since then, you haven't changed my perspective towards you one bit. You have done nothing but tunnel Shady the entire game. The only other "case" you have made at all was the post about alan and Darth here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15662306 . That post says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. You didn't call out anything they did as scummy, nor did you actually commit to a read of them being connected. You just beat around the bush about nothing whatsoever.
If I'm the scummiest player here, why am I still not getting your votes? Two days in a row you haven't voted for me despite what you call scummy behavior, favoring voting for self-apologetic newbies. You're voting for the easiest cases first. Put your money where your mouth is and start voting for me if you think I'm a liability. My vote will stay on Shady Sands until something better comes up. When day 3 rolls around I expect to see a full case from you about me and a vote on me.
Two words come up when I look at your playstyle: too careful.
The alan/Darth thing I brought up is dead, I withdrew my claim about it. Then I had to go even further to clarify my intent. If you think I'm scum, then I'm the worst scum in this game. That's the bottom line, because it's obvious.
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Maybe your problem is that I have problems. Can we get something else useful in your filter besides being petulant?
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On August 01 2012 14:19 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2012 14:11 Obvious.660 wrote:
Maybe your problem is that I have problems. Can we get something else useful in your filter besides being petulant? Really?
Reary.
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Since people want to know in advance, I will be offline for most of Friday and Saturday. Best I'll be able to do is taking a quick look at developments and pushing whatever case I feel is strongest with limited time. First weekend of August is the Polish festival at my church and my family runs the hotdogs and hamburgers booth, so I'll be disconnected for like 12-14 hours both days. I can't get out of this without being 6 feet under.
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WP Keirathi, hope to play with you in future games here on TL.
I stayed up for this one. This is... an interesting turn. It did seem you two were buddied up to some degree, but I didn't see this as an outcome. Definitely missed the mason slip. We have (at least) ~48 hours with you and now that there's a confirmed town member, everyone's going to want to get on Shady Sands' good side. I am no exception.
Since there's no better time than the present, I'll address each of the points Keirathi has against me to the best of my ability and hope this allays them so we can move on to my greater injustices against DarthPunk and Ange777 in darker times.
To one Mr. Obvious.660, I bequath some mistrust along the same lines as one Mr. Promethelax. - 1. You were extremely active in the pre-game, but have posted very, very little since. Outside obligations I can understand, so not a major point, but something for everyone to think about.
- 2. My main scummy tidbit I've picked up from you is the same as one of my points on Mr. Promethelax: if you were so sure about Mr. Sands being scum, why weren't you in the thread defending your read? You were obviously here because you posted just 7 minutes after the deadline saying "What the fuck." Again, seems as if you were pretty ambivalent as to who actually died, be it Mr. Shady whom I've known was town, or Mr. Golbat.
- 3. The previous point makes me question why you said "I will do my best to get back to the thread before deadline to respond accordingly to any changes, but I'd not like getting modkilled for failing to vote." if you were actually around at the deadline and didn't respond to any changes except who died.
- 1. Absolutely, my activity level pre-game matched my excitement to jump right back into another Mafia game having just been lynched in Newbie Mini XXI. I looked at the general tone of the hosts and found Marv's PENISES post and felt like spreading some of my enthusiasm around by having thread funsies before the game. This was a point in time where I had no external obligations to fulfill and I could engage in merrily checking for subscription updates while browsing the TL forums or between games of SC2, whatever I happened to be doing. Those are my posting behaviors when nothing IRL is nagging me (which admittedly is too much of the time, being unemployed), but coincidentally things are just coming up that I have to deal with, as anyone else would, at inopportune times. It's happened to everyone at some point. Too tired, too busy, handling business with a lawyer in the case of Shady Sands. We need to remember to not get fixated completely on these absences and ignore everything else going on, as frustrating as they are.
- 2. I wasn't defending my read of Shady Sands because, to be honest, there was no way I was going to convince the town that my one piece of evidence was more scummy than the combined reasons people as listed against Golbat. Keirathi himself voted for Golbat, but remember that as partners you two had knowledge that none of the rest of the townspeople had. It's easier to see Keirathi pushing against me (and anyone else that was eyeing Shady Sands, I am not looking at the filter right now, just reacting to this independently of analysis for the moment) for looking further at Shady Sands as scummy when Keir has a vested interest to keep Shady around. To the onlooker, you could have ended up looking like a scum pair if someone had caught your first slip and misinterpreted it as scum QT versus mason QT chat.
"What the fuck?" is pretty much how I feel right now as well, considering that in your death you have presented us with a long list of so-so cases to analyze in a new light and try to get anything we can from it. I feel it's also an appropriate response to losing a strong town power role on the first day and I was disappointed that the voting went through on an obvious newbie via a super easy case. Flashbacks to XXI, seriously.
I will tell it like it is again: I posted as soon as I caught up on the thread. No analysis because that's all I had done was catch up on the thread.
- 3.
3. The previous point makes me question why you said "I will do my best to get back to the thread before deadline to respond accordingly to any changes, but I'd not like getting modkilled for failing to vote." if you were actually around at the deadline and didn't respond to any changes except who died. The timestamps are the key here.
Obvious.660 United States. July 28 2012 15:11- goodnight post
Obvious.660 United States. July 29 2012 06:07 - what the fuck
So I intentionally voted ~12 hours before the deadline knowing it was likely I wouldn't make it back to do anything meaningful before the deadline (including cast a vote). As it was, I started reading the thread probably while the end of day post was being composed just before deadline.
If Shady Sands (or anyone else, for that matter) has anything further for me to address and add to this list, I'm going to be around for a bit.
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On August 01 2012 14:20 aRyuujin wrote:
Im so sorry I completely forgot to vote -.-
My bad, I knew i would be busy but I didn't put up a vote before hand like I did day 1. Thanks hosts for not modkilling me yet <3, wont happen again
This guy has me worried. Need more than just two sentences between D2 lynch and N2 kill.
So I'm going back in time to this post:
On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote:MordanisShow nested quote +On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler +if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. makes no sense. Why would scum draw attention to himself on a case this early? Why especially would the scum stick to his guns rather than move on to greener pastures? Seems like really dumb play for scum, although perhaps he thinks I am that dumb. I am pretty sure I'm more intelligent than a garbage can though... Anyways, despite my annoyance with him, his play seems more uniformed than scummy. So to you Shady I say: Read through the OP again, and preferably some of the guides. Your play so far has been far from inspiring. And compared to this group, that's saying something. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] +On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue. I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. , and find for me one place where I explicitly say that we should lynch Keir. All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch. I over committed to defending what I still believe to be a good read for being 2 pages in, but I didn't try to start a bandwagon on him. If you really want to make a big deal out of a mistake and end the discussion before the day cycle is 1/4 of the way done, by all means just vote for me and agree that its obvious. If you don't feel that way, do your own analysis and point fingers. Town doesn't win by singing Kum Ba Yah, My Lord. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] +On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:14 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all.
On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3.
So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:26 Keirathi wrote:
@Goldbat: I responded to both of his posts regarding me with pretty strong dismissals for being a bad case. My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvoteI just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler +That was me trying to be all internet tough . I'll try to tone down my accusatory-ness, but that's just me being new to the game. And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote:
I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town.
Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience.
After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. Shady's last edit summarizes why we dont vote for mordanis If he's mafia he will be a free kill soon if he's not, why vote
aRyuujin chimes in here to... echo Shady Sands. Note that after this point, Mordanis falls off aRyuujin's radar completely.
This marks the only vote contributed thus far (having missed D2 vote) to a successful mislynch, and we know better than to ask at this point who yesterday's candidate would have been after the MrMedic drop out scenario.
On July 29 2012 06:27 aRyuujin wrote:
I'll be here for the next couple of hours.
Wow, that sucked. Really wish he just claimed though, when he realized that he was a lynch possibility.
To be fair, I still think his actions were the most scummy so far, and I definitely would make that vote again.
I'm noting here that he would make the easy vote again. Danger, Will Robinson.
And now... we have silence. A missed vote, a short apology, and nothing else to go on.
##FOS aRyuujin
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On August 02 2012 09:08 goodkarma wrote:
@Shady, a couple quick things:
Three scum is a very standard setup for this type of game. In fact, the upcoming XXIII NMM game which is being set up by the same people has three guaranteed scum. It has been brought up before that 2 is a very real possibility for this type of setup (C9++), but then again so is a serial killer. I'm under the general impression that they only followed this setup loosely, as sk wasn't even in the list of possible roles. In the back of my mind, I keep assuming there's three, and I know I'm not the only one to do so in this thread.
And no commentary on my suspect list based on voting histories? I will have a more comprehensive write-up on my thoughts on this, but I feel it's an important point of discussion. I would like to hear some people weigh in on this, especially our one confirmed town.
@Obvious:
As Keir mentioned to you earlier, contributing nothing but your defense is not very pro-town. That is why I'm happy to see at least a little bit of discussion of your suspect (aRyuujin). I know you've also in the past occassionally made a few points against people you felt were scum, but I'd like to see some truly in-depth cases from you (more than a few bullet points). Allowing town to see your scum case arguements is honestly more important for you right now than only playing defense whenever someone throws an accusation your way if you are to establish your innocence.
I don't disagree with needing more points, but there's very few points to make at his level of activity. You'd do well to take your own advice, too. Make your case for today. Call to action time.
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Votecount please, and welcome back from your vacation Ghost|404 not found.
Marv beat us severely while you were gone, can you give him some more cohosting points please?
Would be possible to update (first post) flips/imporant posts?
Catching up on the thread with coffee.
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On August 02 2012 09:08 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious:
As Keir mentioned to you earlier, contributing nothing but your defense is not very pro-town. That is why I'm happy to see at least a little bit of discussion of your suspect (aRyuujin). I know you've also in the past occassionally made a few points against people you felt were scum, but I'd like to see some truly in-depth cases from you (more than a few bullet points). Allowing town to see your scum case arguements is honestly more important for you right now than only playing defense whenever someone throws an accusation your way if you are to establish your innocence.
My FOS has resulted in not helping town at all. Sorry that it hasn't resulted in anything useful, I wanted more to go on for aRyuujin and it's already been almost a day with no actual reaction. I'm just going to have to let it go for now and worry about which candidate is best for today's lynch, and try to exonerate them if I don't feel their motivations are scum-aligned.
In the case of Day 1, not trying to convince others that Golbat was a bad vote for his newbie playstyle which I felt matched my own in my last game where I was in a similar position didn't help town. In the case of Day 2, I didn't push my vote for Shady Sands enough compared to people's interpretations of Promethelax' scummy-looking behavior. Clearly this is bad in hindsight, as it would have also resulted in a mislynch of Shady Sands. So, as people have pointed out, I need to remedy this of my history is going to make this an easy scum victory should I survive to MYLO/LYLO.
Ange777 and JingleHell are still going back and forth (as I write this) and for all that I can tell they're just tunneling the shit out of each other. I'll let them have their argument and look at it later.
Goodkarma, has once again brought up the shit I thought we laid to rest and is distracting the town (namely me) with this bullshit once again. Therefore, ##VOTE GoodKarma, and yes, it's OMGUS, emphasis on you suck.
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IN BEFORE NONSENSE ABOUT TOWN VOICE COMES UP AGAIN.
I say we listen to JingleHell because he's the most rational player here. If we don't we lose. If we do and he's scum, we lose anyway. These are not opinions, they are facts.
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I'm not tunneling anyone. I'm trying to get some reactions because my reads are all "newbie newbie newbie baddie".
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You're getting in the way of me being illogical and irrational in order to get more information. Stop it.
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Sorry, yeah, I'm just being a little bit crazy right now. I went and took a walk to clear my head. Also, I need more coffee. I'll try to explain my thoughts as best I can in a little bit.
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Short story is I'm dealing with some depression and that was sort of a manic outburst. Gonna kill that discussion off and just add that Goodkarma seems to have the most accurate read on my state at the moment and I'm gonna try my best to change it for the better starting right now. I've gotten my head into a good place (as good as it's going to get, I guess) and I want to prove my towniness to the best of my ability tonight while helping to make sure we're not up shit-creek without a definite candidate for lynch at deadline. I am at your disposal for thoughts on cases and I will take a look at the ones that have come up (most recently the one on Zorkmid was at least an interesting theory, which I will take a loot at next). As I have already made you aware, I'm offline for most of the next two days (Fri, Sat) for volunteer work, so the earlier I get to work the better.
It's too late into the game to have votes all over the place. Majority is now 5!
Incoming case on Zorkmid (since there's some suspicion already forming, I'm going to start from the top of his filter and work my way down).
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First we start with an interesting question from Zorkmid:
On July 27 2012 06:43 Zorkmid wrote:
I'm not saying that the "best town play" isn't to lynch scum, I'm just saying that in the absence of that inactivity and liars are the next logical targets.
Warning: Nub question::::We HAVE to lynch someone each day, right? Okay, so right off the bat here we have a question that puts the conversation in an awkward area. Why would we ever want to discuss a no-lynch on the first day? It's the kind of question that leaves us talking about crazy circumstances and not about who is scummy and who is not. Distraction from scum hunting
The results of this clarification are even less thrilling:
On July 27 2012 06:48 Zorkmid wrote:
I'll have to think about that for a little while, hopefully while I'm gone we'll hear more from the others! So he's distracting the town with no-lynch talk and then dismissing himself from the conversation to keep the spotlight off. When he finally comes back, we find out how truly newbie he's going to act:
On July 27 2012 08:15 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 08:12 Shady Sands wrote:
From a logic standpoint, it makes sense to always have a lynch target each day, because voting patterns, voting times, and the order in which players vote are some of the most important clues that the town can use.
For example, if the target turns out to be green or blue, then we can backtrack and start seeing who started the bandwagoning and go from there. If the target turns out to be red, we can see who did the last minute voting or tried to swing the balance away from them, and add those to the list.
But if we simply go for a no-lynch, there's no pressure on the scum to actually put their money where their mouth is, so to speak. This makes perfect sense to me, so how we determine who to target initially? This is truly a gem: a totally hands off way to let others start the scum hunting without getting his hands dirty at all.
+ Show Spoiler [in which Zorkmid parrots Shady Sands] +On July 27 2012 22:11 Zorkmid wrote:Another of these people is Golbat: So far, Golbat has, in this order: voted Mordanis
unvoted Mordanis
FoS MordanisHis unvote seems to coincide with Mordanis's making a case on him. He claims he backed off the vote because: Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:
The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read.
I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is #FoS Mordanis
+ Show Spoiler +This reminds me of that futurama ambassador from the neutral planet. "All I know is that my guy says maybe." I'm not sure what this could mean, but I think that it's worth pointing out. It's one of the stranger seeming posts I've read in this game. Is the deadline today at 17:00 EDT?I am suspicious of both of these players right now, but there's lots of daylight left.
Earlier in that post he just writes what happened with Mordanis and Keirathi regarding the RB conversation, telling us that his take on Mordanis' back and forth with Keir regarding a RB came away with Mordanis seeming town:
On July 27 2012 22:11 Zorkmid wrote:
I see this as a GIANT leap of reasoning, and I still see Mordanis's case as an attempt (albeit a clumbsy one) to get the ball rolling in XXII. I don't know if a Zorkmid flip tells us anything about Mordanis but keep this in mind if you're ever thinking about it.
These three posts happen, look at the timestamps, and more specifically the content of the posts, to see the irony:
On July 28 2012 01:14 Zorkmid wrote:
Activity seems woefully slow. I guess that most of you are on different clocks that I am.
On July 29 2012 01:58 Zorkmid wrote:
I'm at wonderland for b'day will be more active tomorrow.
##vote: golbat
On July 30 2012 04:57 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 08:09 Shady Sands wrote:
Another thing to note:
Zorkmid and Obvious both ended up shifting to Golbat with minimal analysis at all. I'd say Zork looks the quietest between the two, but Obvious also strikes me as a little odd too, since he popped into the thread 10 minutes after Golbat's lynch without commenting once in the prior six hours, even though he was trying to get me lynched and people were busy bandwagoning Golbat. Normally, I'd expect someone who was trying to aim for a lynch on someone to at least argue their case before the lynch when the town was heading in the opposite direction.
I have a few hunches on where we should go next, but I'd like everyone to read through the above posts first. I've been Partying for the last two days, just had a birthday. I did post ample reasoning for my vote against Golbat, it's here. I made my vote post from a Blue Jays game, (we won 8-3 yea!) but basically nothing of note happened in the thread since that analysis post, so I felt his strange play best merited my vote. (How fucking wrong was I? And 6 others as well. Not a good start). I'll make another analysis post in a little while. How long until night? We have the perfect excuse (it was indeed his birthday, his icon proved it) and on top of it we have a complaint for lack of activity followed by... lack of activity! I see no pro-town actions here.
This one gets sectioned out by itself for all the magic it contains:
+ Show Spoiler [in which we find anger] +On July 30 2012 09:14 Zorkmid wrote:Since we've been told that: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 06:04 marvellosity wrote:
Day post is flavour only, there are no clues to night events within it All that we really know is that we have a roleblocker(medic or otherwise), and that that roleblocker saved a kill. (I don't buy the idea that mafia didn't use a KP, especially not in a newbie game). From this I can infer that the same person viewed as most dangerous by mafia, was viewed as the most valuable townie by the roleblocker. I'm too tired to do any analysis. And frankly from the tone about my posting, I don't have much desire to. I'll answer some questions:Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote:Zorkmid's vote comes off to me as a bandwagon vote. Evidence against Golbat was that Golbat finally settled on a decision for his best scum read? On July 27 2012 22:11 Zorkmid wrote:Another of these people is Golbat: So far, Golbat has, in this order: voted Mordanis
unvoted Mordanis
FoS MordanisHis unvote seems to coincide with Mordanis's making a case on him. He claims he backed off the vote because: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:
The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read.
I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is #FoS Mordanis
I'm not sure what this could mean, but I think that it's worth pointing out. It's one of the stranger seeming posts I've read in this game. Pretty arbitrary reason to vote for someone. Can you explain what you mean by town vibe in that post? (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625737) I could understand not having a definite scum read from it, but implying the opposite it a bit premature. It does seem to be a fairly arbitrary reason to vote for Golbat, I agree. I'll be honest that at the time of my vote, I hadn't been following the game very closely, and Golbat was just the player I thought most likely to be scum as of the time of (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625737). When I said "town vibe" (refering to Mordanis' case) I just believed he was just trying to get a conversation going, and the reasons he gave for it being a weak case rang true to me. Just saw this question as I was working on my post: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 08:44 Keirathi wrote:I'm pretty saddened by your lack of participation so far. You've shown the ability to make constructive posts. Therefor, I question your vote onto Golbat without much in the way of explanation. Was it just to avoid a no-lynch, or did you actually think he was scum? Also, this quote bothers me: Zorkmid wrote
The reason that my opinion from "lynch all liars and lynch all inactives" to not feeling as strongly about it is just because I was not aware that a non-lynch was possible. I am curious as to why the possibility of no-lynching makes you feel less certain about lynching liars and lurkers. Not stating a solid stance just because of the possibility of a no-lynch doesn't make much sense to me. Because why risk killing a townie without a good reason. If we lynch MrMedic (as an example of a lurker) and he flips green, what was the point? About Golbat, my reasons for voting for him are re-iterated in this post. I feel a little funny defending my vote to lynch a guy to someone who voted the same guy. Why'd YOU vote for him? Oh right, he played scummy as fuck. Rantddendum:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 07:58 goodkarma wrote:
Okay. I'm putting together my notes and writing my long-promised suspect list.
Wouldn't usually waste a post stating this, but one-line fluff posts seem to be all the rage.. -_- (MrMedic and Zorkmid...)
Tbh it shouldn't really matter exactly how no one died last night. Now that Golbat has flipped, and day two has begun, let's not waste any time getting our cases put together. Not so much a fluff post, but I'm sick of being called out for inactivity on a fridaynight/saturday. I was busy, handle it. Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 14:39 Shady Sands wrote:On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote:
In regards to my activity, should be able to pick it up by Monday if I haven't been decimated. Going for quality over quantity til the wedding stuff (not my wedding) is finished. (double spacing to keep things grouped) Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. Same goes for this shit, stop it. You too Keir. I've heard it from several people already. I'm busy, SHUT THE (expunged) UP.
On July 30 2012 09:14 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote:Zorkmid's vote comes off to me as a bandwagon vote. Evidence against Golbat was that Golbat finally settled on a decision for his best scum read? On July 27 2012 22:11 Zorkmid wrote:Another of these people is Golbat: So far, Golbat has, in this order: voted Mordanis
unvoted Mordanis
FoS MordanisHis unvote seems to coincide with Mordanis's making a case on him. He claims he backed off the vote because: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:
The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read.
I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is #FoS Mordanis
I'm not sure what this could mean, but I think that it's worth pointing out. It's one of the stranger seeming posts I've read in this game. Pretty arbitrary reason to vote for someone. Can you explain what you mean by town vibe in that post? (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625737) I could understand not having a definite scum read from it, but implying the opposite it a bit premature. It does seem to be a fairly arbitrary reason to vote for Golbat, I agree. I'll be honest that at the time of my vote, I hadn't been following the game very closely, and Golbat was just the player I thought most likely to be scum as of the time of (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15625737).When I said "town vibe" (refering to Mordanis' case) I just believed he was just trying to get a conversation going, and the reasons he gave for it being a weak case rang true to me. Are we setting up Mordanis as town here in case of the eventual fall? What does Zorkmid know about Mordanis that we don't? Or am I just going to far with these questions and Zorkmid is once again stating the obvious about Mordanis, as any town member is capable of? I'm inclined to believe this statement isn't indicative of alignment, but I want to emphasize it because once again we have Zorkmid coming to the defense of Mordanis.
On July 30 2012 23:50 Zorkmid wrote:After reading the last 50 or 60 posts in this thread, one of the things that jumped out at me was this: Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 11:21 Keirathi wrote:On July 30 2012 10:44 Promethelax wrote:
I wanted to know why it was those two mosre than the other three. That is why you feel that your cases against them are better than the ones against Me, Mord and Zork.
goodkarma - I just can't imagine a townie reasoning for his disrupting discussions and bringing us back to talking about lurkers repeatedly. Add in to that the case that you made, and for now I feel the strongest about him. Let's have a look at GK!Goodkarma says that he was hesistant to "join the Mordanis lynch bandwagon" early on in the game, a statement in keeping with his lurker policy. At this point he voted for aRyuujin, while averring his suspicions of MrMedic and Promethelax for the same reasons. He then changed his vote from aRyuujin to Golbat, at that time it was the 5th vote on Golbat. GK explains why he didn't vote for shady " he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees...". I'm curious as to why after dropping his vote on aRyujin, he leapt to Golbat next, and not those he was originally suspicious of: Myself, Obvious and MrMedic. I know I voted for the same guy, but I'm just a bit surprised at your choice to vote for Golbat given your "call to action". GK, would you have been likely to change your vote a second time, had Golbat done a better job of defending himself? Zorkmid seems perfectly happy to get eyes on the semi-active (at the time) goodkarma, who indeed was talking of lurkers instead of active players and in general not showing his hand. He later remedies this and has since opened up quite a bit more and currently has a FOS/case on.. Zorkmid!
In general, Zorkmid seems to have a pretty good handle on the ROLES of the game but not on the RULES. Why would Zorkmid know/share this information if he's been establishing himself as a complete newbie the whole game?
On August 01 2012 04:37 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2012 04:33 Ange777 wrote:On August 01 2012 04:28 Keirathi wrote:
Also, I just want to add that I am curious about Prom's pseudo-claim. We know we have another blue role (Medic or Roleblocker) or that mafia held their KP to fake claim medic (which despite aRyuujin and Zorkmid's pessimism, I DO feel like is a possibility in a newbie game). In my first game ever I rolled scum and I would have never thought of that possibility. What would they gain by faking a medic? Later on the game they could say: "I am a medicOn day 1, I saved player X." Might be done to save a mafioso under pressure, or to try and draw out any blues.
Finally Zorkmid decides his stance on a no-lynch: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15691175
On August 02 2012 11:21 Zorkmid wrote:
About Golbat, I did find his play scummy, especially his on again-off again Mordanis suspicions. I didn't vote for him to avoid a no-lynch, I actually have no problem whatsoever with a no-lynch that early in the game. I believe that now we're getting to the point in the game where a no-lynch hurts more than it did earlier in the game, Scum is getting closer to a win. Barring a lucky save, we're going to lose 2 more townies in the next two nights.
That said, another mis-lynch is even worse.
About why the possibility of no-lynching appealed to me early game, was that it would give us more time to make a better informed lynch, reducing the chance of a mis-lynch of a town lurker on day 2. We all what happened there. However, at this critical juncture in the game, I think it more likely that a lurker would flip red than a lurker earlier in the game. Scum know it's dangerous to lurk after the first day. We even had a bunch of conversation talking about policy lynching lurkers to get everyone to participate. This implies that Zorkmid is OKAY with having lurkers around: he was willing to go for a no-lynch until he had more information by way a process in which lurkers flourish.
The scumslip that Ange777 picked up:
On August 03 2012 00:17 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2012 00:00 DarthPunk wrote:
@ ange777.
The zork scumslip combined with his lurky posting habits are certainly cause for suspicion. I don't like his explanation for the statement. He is saying that he looks at certain posts through different roles but does not actually explain the slip at all. What was he trying to say there? It was WIFOM pure and simple. He has not answered the case on him adequately and he has not provided much in the way of cases. What are you talking about? I honestly can't see how one person, let alone two people would see this as a slip. Let me walk you through what I assumed to be pretty straight forward logic. I believe that no smart green or blue would have made the post that Prom did....but he did, hence I thought that he may be red. I'm speculating on the meaning of Prom's actions based on what I would do, nothing more, nothing less. I think that most people followed this logic just fine, as it contributed to Prom's mis-lynch. Show nested quote +On August 03 2012 00:00 DarthPunk wrote:The problem with both Zorkmid and aRyuujin is that there is so little to actually make a read from. I don't post as often as many players, but at least what I do post has some thought behind it. Regarding the red/blue portion, it really was too emphasized. I'd give BOTD if there wasn't a whole pile of evidence against Zorkmid, but this post exists so it's on the pile now. We've already established he's been playing newbie from the early game, so how does he know what a blue/green would or wouldn't say? Especially if that thing was said to draw a reaction, which for much of this game has been a necessary tactic to use.
Zorkmid's dismissal:
On August 03 2012 01:38 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2012 01:08 Ange777 wrote:On August 03 2012 01:02 Zorkmid wrote:On August 03 2012 00:59 Ange777 wrote:@Zorkmid
On July 31 2012 22:46 Zorkmid wrote:
I also think that your "relief post" is strange. It's sort of WIFOM, but I don't think that as a green or blue I would ever post something like that. It's just yelling out "I'm A TOWNIE huehuehue". I wouldn't post it because it reeks of redness Zork says he doesn't think that as a green or blue he would ever post that. Why does he need to say "as a green or blue"? This already proves that he does not think of himself as green or blue! Because when he sees the "relief post", he sees it from scum's perspective thinking it would be such a scummy statement for himself to say due to confirmation bias. I'm going to let someone else explain to you why this is stupid. Volunteers? Giving up? Not even trying to defend your blatant lie anymore? By what logic does my saying "as a green or blue" prove that I'm red? If someone said, "if I were a cop, I'd check player X" would that prove they're not cops? Why are you tunnelling me with NOTHING? Take it for what you will.
And finally, in lieu of making a case of his own, Zorkmid has elected to go with the confirmed-town's suspicions and place his vote on GoodKarma through a summary of their thoughts and a vote from himself.
+ Show Spoiler [spoiler all the things] +On August 03 2012 02:39 Zorkmid wrote:@Goodkarma I'm looking at your post about voting records. On day 2, both Keirathi and Prom voted for you. I want to examine their cases on you, since they were made by 2 confirmed townies, as well as Shady's. From Prom:+ Show Spoiler +I know it is obscenely long don't worry. It is easy to simplify. There are three points.
1 the use of 'a' instead of 'my'
2 I told him not to do something that is actually against the rules
3 my overuse of the word town
and
4 OMGUSOMGUSOMGUS
seriously that is the entirety of his case against me. The only point which might be valid is the third but it was a joke (one I now regret obviously) since saying I was pro-town without being pro-town was how Kier had caught me in XIX. I honestly thought the use of town beers and a town line instead of town circle made it really obvious it was a joke. I should have known there were secret Romanians on TL Mafia.
So karma: out of those three points one is pants-on-head, one is semantics and one is me being dumb enough to joke around. Where is this case you don't think I can respond to. You have talked about my posting habits as a possible fourth point but I can't do anything about that. I'm here while I am home and awake and that will continue until town wins or I am lynched/nk'd
He follows all of this up with a decent case against the same lurker he wanted to lynch d1. Cases against semi-lurkers are the easiest to make as mafia and tunneling one player gives you an easy out when you are wrong about anything else. This play continues to read as scum to me and, therefore,
## Vote: Karma At the time, it seemed like a big part of his case on you was him just trying to turn the focus back onto you, which can indicate scumminess, but he wasn't. He believed your tunnelling, and accusations on "semi-lurkers" reads as scum behavior. I agree with him to the extent that those are the easier targets. You yourself are one of the least active posters so far (in a game fraught with inactivity). From Keir:+ Show Spoiler +
It doesn't make any sense for a townie to claim that he has reads and not share them before the night ends. If you had died, you never would have gotten to post them, and you would have completely wasted your time and hurt the thread overall. Were you completely unafraid of dying?
Also, you said you would post them before the night ended in your previous post - Hide Spoiler -
On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote:
With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours.
. I don't particularly like that you promised something and didn't deliver.
After reading through the thread again, I still feel the strongest about GK and Obvious. However, I admit I am still super wary of Promethelax, but I don't know if he deserves a lynch yet. My real concern though is that if he is town, Mafia has very, very little reason to NK him at this point even if he doesn't get lynched. In our last game together, the fact that he was so obviously "pro-town" and still alive by the 4th day was really suspicious. I'm pretty torn about what to do regarding him, because if he IS town, mislynching him would hurt us fairly badly.
I will say that his cases in this game, compared to his cases in XIX where he was scum, are 100% better. To use his own terms from the end of XIX: "I liked my pants-on-head retarded connection theories."
There is one similarity from XIX and this game that I will mention that I haven't before. In day 1 on XIX, he pushed a case on another townie really hard, and then after day 1 he virtually quit mentioning it for no reason. Or rather, mentioned it a few times but without any real conviction or pressure. It kind of feels like the same thing he's done to Shady in this game.
I think that the most salient point that Keir brought up in his case against you was your not sharing your reads before the night was over. You responded that: Show nested quote +
It clearly states in the thread that I was following Alan's advice. I was afraid that by posting something wrong and dieing, I would be leading the town into another mislynch. Alan has since then brought up the point that it wasn't that impressions were posted, but rather that the people in his game who were night-killed had tunnel vision and were only pursuing single suspects.
In other words, yes. Not posting my impressions at night was a mistake, and I realize that now.
If I were a town player, + Show Spoiler + I'd feel more worried about getting NKed if I posted something right, not wrong. From Keir's will:+ Show Spoiler +Regarding goodkarma, this is what I had to say and I want it remembered in my absence: I find repeatedly pushing to have lurkers lynched is an anti-town trait. Our goal is to lynch scum. You claim it's impossible to make solid reads on day 1, but without people making reads, our ability to get successful lynches later in the game diminishes. Repeatedly trying to sheep us back onto lurkers and away from active cases is suspicious. Just another re-iteration of Prom's point that lurkers are easier to form cases about, and the risk of a scum slip is lower as a result. I agree. From Shady: Shady never FoS'ed or Voted for you, but he has talked about you. + Show Spoiler +Here's my read on GK:
I'm not really sure why he would zero in on aRyuujin like that. Basically GK's rationale for lynching people is:
Filter people who "appear active" --> Find those who are active but who are light on the content --> Start analyzing and prepping for lynch.
So he filtered 3 people out who appear active:
aRyu
MrMedic
Promethelax
Then he says hmmm aRyu is contributing the least... and then seems to forget about the other two and keep digging on aRyu.
Now aRyu obviously doesn't do town any favors by making his defense consist of haikus, but the shift by GK to just focusing on aRyu was a little off to me.
His shift Golbat was well-timed and well-explained, so nothing can be really inferred from that.
I'm not suspicious of GK right now, but I am a little puzzled by why he would drop MrMedic and Promethelax so quickly from his list of suspicious inactives, given that MrMedic hasn't voted and Promethelax seems to space his posts 14 hours apart and ignored the giant debate on Mordanis/Golbat entirely.
This a third player who suspects that GK's play is essentially focused on the easy targets, as well as continuing to tunnel them after they have defended themselves. @GoodKarma Your posts are big on encouraging others to post cases and contribute, but your filter is lacking in both regards. Prove me wrong! ##Vote GoodKarma
So I finish this with an
##UNVOTE
and a
##VOTE Zorkmid
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On August 03 2012 11:32 Obvious.660 wrote:
It's too late into the game to have votes all over the place. Majority is now 5!
Almost clicked edit, shit.
This is incorrect. 13 people total. 3 dead. 10 people = majority of 6. My apologies for the misinformation.
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I'm willing to get behind the Mordanis vote (Shady Sands' vote candidate) to secure a lynch, as I'm hoping he's not going to change it at this point. Probably should switch now, tomorrow is 12 hours on my feet in the heat and I'm out the door as soon as I wake up and get ready. I'll try to check in to see what's up in 8 hours or so but honestly, probably won't get the chance until ~24 hours from now. Good luck, friends.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE Mordanis
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On August 03 2012 15:10 Obvious.660 wrote:I'm willing to get behind the Mordanis vote ( Shady Sands' vote candidate) to secure a lynch, as I'm hoping he's not going to change it at this point. Probably should switch now, tomorrow is 12 hours on my feet in the heat and I'm out the door as soon as I wake up and get ready. I'll try to check in to see what's up in 8 hours or so but honestly, probably won't get the chance until ~24 hours from now. Good luck, friends. ##UNVOTE
##VOTE Mordanis
Okay. Here it is. I can't in good conscience trust Shady Sands implicitly. He's been wrong about 1-Golbat. 2-Promethelax and quite possibly he's now wrong about 3-Mordanis (maybe 4th will be Obvious?).
We also can't trust GoodKarma at his word for voting with Shady Sands. If we could have, he would have switched already.
So, fuck it. I'm going back on this vote I just posted and putting it to Zorkmid. I didn't spend 2 hours on my post only to piss it away because some clown told me otherwise.
I broke my own rule.
WE VOTE FOR SCUM HERE.
I've got to put my vote back on Zorkmid or I won't sleep tonight.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE Zorkmid
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On August 03 2012 16:23 Ange777 wrote:
Ok, I just got up and quickly skimmed through and I really can't believe that people are not voting for Zork .... I can only urge you to go back and read my case against him and his defense against it!
I don't trust you, either.
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Hey Jingle, if I may have a moment of your time. I'm about to head out the door for the rest of the day but I wanted to ask you about something. Based on our last game together, you played a fairy suspicious-of-all town and weren't abashed of moving on to better targets as they sprung up. My question to you is this: do you not find it more suspicious than the situation you are looking at with Ange that Zorkmid has come under fire recently and the town is suddenly super active? This Mord case seems like a direct counter-wagon to Zork, the kind that appears when scum is close to getting lynched. Given that Mord has been under vague suspicions since the beginning of the game, don't you think it's fair that you take a good shake at voicing at least your own opinion on the case I and others have been making against Zork? Ange may be suspicious and all but you can see for yourself that there are bigger fish to deal with today. I'm leaving for about 13 hours right after this post it's just something that occurred to me overnight trying to fall asleep.
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One more day of volunteer work and then I'm back with you all tomorrow (afternoon my time, Sunday). Nice job coming together on the vote! Sorry for not being here to chat during the night cycle, this should be my last extended absence for the remainder of this game.
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The volunteer work is over so I'm back in business for doing some work here.
Checking in with aRyuujin
At this point, you have 3 posts in the past 3 days.
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Ange777: I wouldn't say top, no. I would say that he's not playing like somebody I would want to have left in the game at MYLO/LYLO. If he's town, he's a liability.
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On August 05 2012 17:42 Ange777 wrote:
Are you guys just dumping your reads and leaving the thread instantly?
Nope.
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My top scum read has to be JingleHell at the moment.
The distraction created between JingleHell and Ange777 feels off. I know Jingle is very much like a bull-dog in that he prefers to sink his teeth into a target and not let go without a good reason. That's fine to me, as far as seeing his play before. However, the answers Ange repeatedly gave (specifically, that Ange had already had suspicions of Shady Sands prior to Jingle saying anything) weren't being accepted and he didn't even bother going down another track. Not one shift off of Ange in favor of scum sniffing a different person. The two of them literally shitted up the thread for a little while.
+ Show Spoiler [in which shitting happens] +On August 03 2012 23:42 JingleHell wrote:If you don't understand how I think it's fishy that someone (to paraphrase) wants me to not tunnel and then adds evidence to the only case I've made I can't help you. What I can do is remember that there's probably a fair number of active scum left, and wonder why you're defending Ange so staunchly when he's not even in danger at the moment On August 03 2012 06:59 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2012 06:54 Ange777 wrote:@Jingle: On August 03 2012 06:47 JingleHell wrote:
I don't consider you telling me you already suspected Shady to be explaining your motive. You wanted me to be after multiple people, but you were happy to just pile evidence on the guy I was already looking at.
Saying you already had your eye on him is telling me an action. Not telling me what, from a townie perspective, could motivate that action (hence "motive").
Do I really need to explain to you how that filter button works? An ad hom attack to continue to ignore the difference between an uninformative answer and an explained motive. So many sheep it's probably going to fly. Should I just go ahead and congratulate you on the scum win now, or shall I wait? This will be my last response to your effort to clutter the thread. Explain your motive or I waste no more time on you. My vote stays put.
Wait, who started all this personal attack stuff? Oh, right, JingleHell brought it in.
+ Show Spoiler [lol @ "angus beef"] +On August 03 2012 06:47 JingleHell wrote:
Frankly, in newbie games, the guy who seems like he's been huffing a mixture of model glue, jet fuel, and plutonium, usually is huffing a mixture of model glue, jet fuel, and plutonium. Thus, Zork could be scum, just like anyone else, but frankly, he's not my first target.
I don't consider you telling me you already suspected Shady to be explaining your motive. You wanted me to be after multiple people, but you were happy to just pile evidence on the guy I was already looking at.
Saying you already had your eye on him is telling me an action. Not telling me what, from a townie perspective, could motivate that action (hence "motive").
On August 03 2012 08:38 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2012 08:35 Mordanis wrote:
I agree that motives are critical, but when I see someone's motive as purposely making everyone else believe they're illogical and emotional, I feel that's more strongly correlated with scum play than the other cases that have been submitted. I'm pretty sure it was contrived because of the random controlled/ non-controlled elements of his "Shut the fuck up" post. The illogical/emotional defense is great for scum, but it doesn't help town at all except to keep one player alive. A contrived effort to establish a defense that only harms town and helps scum I find to be very scummy. I'm still just worried about the Angus beef, who wanted me to read on everyone, but reinforced the only read I'd posted right after. Call me crazy, but every time I've tried to think of a townie motive for that, I've sounded to myself like I was the one smoking crack cooked in the ruins of Chernobyl. Given how things have gone so far, we're going to need to get the entire town united on somebody, which, I expect, includes most of the sheep.
A challenger appears:
+ Show Spoiler [GoodKarma mentions JH] +On August 04 2012 01:01 goodkarma wrote:So NO ONE has changed their votes lol. I'll say this now: Shady hasn't participated in over a day... If he had participated to any degree this past 24 hours town would have been in much better shape now. Town had a great opportunity to get back into this game by rallying behind him, but now that opportunity is slipping through our fingers... Considering the stubbornness with which both JingleHell and Zork have voted for their candidates and haven't tried to help with securing a lynch majority, it is clear as day to me that they are scum. Then there is only one scum remaining, and he is voting FOR ONE OF THE TWO CANDIDATES with four votes. With Zork pegged as scum, one of the three remaining people is also scum: alan133, aRyuujin, Darthpunk. I said before that I would stand by Shady Sands, after he had already voted for Mord. Instead of helping town, he's afked, and in the process has let town down  . I am nearly 100% certain at this point that Mord. is innocent, but shady is only confirmed town meaning EVERY TOWN REMAINING would have to vote for the other candidate, Zork, for Zork to be lynched. That's simply not going to happen. And at this point, it feels just as unlikely that whichever other two town are on Mord. will be changing their votes... In other words, I'm pretty sure today is no-lynch. There is also the possibility that JingleHell and Zork would tack onto the innocent candidate bandwaggon, which could secure the majority, but would condemn them as scum. I don't see that happening, though honestly it is their best move (lol) since it would guarantee LYLO for town. Ironically, if town no lynches today, a situation I hadn't considered, town in fact still isn't in LYLO. This is a situation I hadn't accounted for, but the complete gridlock in the voting has clearly demonstrated where some of the scum are. A lot of information has been presented from voting patterns even without a lynch. So while I could switch my vote to an innocent man, and stay true to my word, I prefer hypocrisy. My plan with Shady as leader is still the best chance for town, and hopefully town will realize that tomorrow. But the biggest component of that plan, Shady himself, needs to become proactive in rallying town together for that plan to work. Further, if we were just to lynch: Zork and JingleHell the next two days, and cop were to survive, then: We could go from a 1/3 chance to catch the last scum and win to a much better chance (not 100%... the last scum could still be godfather..., ((1/3)(1/3)+(1)(2/3))*100 = ~78% if you really wanted to know). I know that some might consider everything I've just said speculation, but nothing in this game is certain. I strongly believe that today's voting patterns have pegged two scum, and provided us the place to look for the last one. I look forward to hearing everyone's opinions tonight.
+ Show Spoiler [well, ange didn't back down so...] +On August 04 2012 01:07 JingleHell wrote:
Ok, trying to say "You're next because you don't agree with me", when there's not some sort of rock solid evidence...
You're right, I've been too stubborn. People aren't ready to vote for Ange.
##Unvote
##Vote GK
You seem awfully convinced that certain people are scum based on flips that haven't happened, and that's kind of an obvious slip.
A little bit back we have this opportunity for Jingle to vote for me (and honestly, why not? I'm awful):
+ Show Spoiler [Obvious makes "no sense"] +On August 04 2012 01:02 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2012 01:00 DarthPunk wrote:On August 04 2012 00:46 Obvious.660 wrote:
Hey Jingle, if I may have a moment of your time. I'm about to head out the door for the rest of the day but I wanted to ask you about something. Based on our last game together, you played a fairy suspicious-of-all town and weren't abashed of moving on to better targets as they sprung up. My question to you is this: do you not find it more suspicious than the situation you are looking at with Ange that Zorkmid has come under fire recently and the town is suddenly super active? This Mord case seems like a direct counter-wagon to Zork, the kind that appears when scum is close to getting lynched. Given that Mord has been under vague suspicions since the beginning of the game, don't you think it's fair that you take a good shake at voicing at least your own opinion on the case I and others have been making against Zork? Ange may be suspicious and all but you can see for yourself that there are bigger fish to deal with today. I'm leaving for about 13 hours right after this post it's just something that occurred to me overnight trying to fall asleep. I don't see how the mord case is a 'counter-wagon' to anything. Read through the thread. The case on mord began before the case on zork even started. Even Ange777 made a case on mord before she started her case on Zork. The case against him has not been answered aside from asking what the case against him was when several cases on him had been posted he has done nothing but second ange's position and then disappeared from the thread. I'm actually more nervous about Obvious's reasoning for the way he addressed me here than I am about what he suggested. I already explained why I think it's a silly scenario, but I have a natural distrust for people who try to win me over on WIFOM and diplomacy, rather than a good case.
- We can't ask nicely for Jingle to vote meaningfully.
- We can't get Jingle to really talk about anyone other than Ange for a while.
- Jingle says some things that can pretty much be interpreted as intentionally condescending.
- Jingle finally stops trying to get Ange and moves on to GK who points out his anti-town (insofar as not voting for one of the primes) voting behavior.
- Jingle finally realizes there's no way out of voting for one of the two prime candidates without looking anti-town.
- Zork drops the fake claim, likely because he's the only scum they feel is in a threatened position, as something that Jingle can jump on.
Now they hope we don't connect the dots immediately? Pray for us to suck that bad? Who got sheeped here, the town or the scum?
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On August 05 2012 18:40 aRyuujin wrote:
EBWOP
ninja'd by alan lol
he's basically agreeing with me at this point, so chances are we're both scum or both town. As Jingle is more scummy than either of us, and I think DP is too, I think it's fairly obvious that we're both town.
@Obvious
I can see why you think I'm scum because of inactivity. I've noted several times how my lurking has been bad. I'd like to ask you a question, though.
Why the hell would scum me miss day 2 vote? Scum can plan out votes/plays and jump on bandwagons much easier, as their goal is NOT actually finding scum, rather just looking like town (no shit). I
Did you finish that post? There's an I at the end there, so I just wanted to know if you had anything else to add before I answer.
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On August 05 2012 18:50 Obvious.660 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 05 2012 18:40 aRyuujin wrote:
EBWOP
ninja'd by alan lol
he's basically agreeing with me at this point, so chances are we're both scum or both town. As Jingle is more scummy than either of us, and I think DP is too, I think it's fairly obvious that we're both town.
@Obvious
I can see why you think I'm scum because of inactivity. I've noted several times how my lurking has been bad. I'd like to ask you a question, though.
Why the hell would scum me miss day 2 vote? Scum can plan out votes/plays and jump on bandwagons much easier, as their goal is NOT actually finding scum, rather just looking like town (no shit). I Did you finish that post? There's an I at the end there, so I just wanted to know if you had anything else to add before I answer.
Something more like this?
Scum aRyuujin:
Why the hell would scum me miss day 2 vote? Scum can plan out votes/plays and jump on bandwagons much easier, as their goal is NOT actually finding scum, rather just looking like town (no shit). I lost track of the thread trying to look like bad town and it slipped my mind because I wasn't going to make a meaningful vote anyhow.
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On August 06 2012 05:53 Shady Sands wrote:I think he ragequit.
This is also the impression I got from his last post. Town Jingle never struck me as one to sit back and watch the town burn itself to the ground, so I can only say it's just more evidence against him.
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On August 06 2012 07:31 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2012 07:10 Ange777 wrote:So if you have been avidly following my conversation with DarthPunk you will probably have realized we don't really see eye to eye. Now I am going to give him another reason to disagree with me. I am proposing to lynch DarthPunk first instead of Jingle.You might think that it does seem like an aweful OMGUS vote after I have been vividly arguing with DarthPunk but OMGUS isn't about WHO you vote, it's about HOW you vote them. A vote is only OMGUS if you're voting them BECAUSE they voted you. If you vote them for a well-thought-out reason, even if they also voted you, then it's not OMGUS.
Let's first go through the reasons why I wanted to vote him anyway: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=48#9451. During the Zork lynch discussion DarthPunk repeatedly soft-defended Zork, pushed Mordanis as lynch candidate and proposed to lynch aRyuujin instead of Zork.
2. He switches votes very conveniently at around the same time when Zork fake claims medic. I believe that scum decided in their QT to concede to the Zork lynch. Instead of really defending himself against my accusations DarthPunk makes a huge WIFOM explanation and decides to paint me scummy by saying I set him up with a trap. He denies me any kind of town motivation for pointing out Zork's scumslip. Yet he was happy to give Zork the benefit of doubt until last minute even though many people pointed out his scum behaviour. I see a clear scum motivation for his behaviour:
1. Save Zork and mislynch Mordanis (or aRyuujin at least) instead
2. When there is no way to save Zork, switch the vote before Zork's claim to get a bit of town cred
3. Discredit me as I am the most active power behind his lynch and mislynch me insteadWith him being called out as scum by several people DarthPunk is just flailing around desperately trying to shift the attention to someone, anyone besides himself. He didn't even give us any other reads besides me. I can only repeat it: This is no pro town play! DarthPunk, I'd really like to congratulate you for writing the best case on yourself -> your own filter!So why lynch DarthPunk before Jingle? After all this discussion I am even more convinced of him being scum than I am of Jingle. I made the case on Jingle because there was no town motivation for his awful play. If he isn't just simply bad he must be scum. However this case against DarthPunk is based on his clear scum motivation and not based on the lack of town motivation. To make it clear: If I am 99% convinced that Jingle is scum, than I am 100% convinced that DarthPunk is scum.In my opinion we can not let him get away with this! ##Unvote
##Vote DarthPunk OK all 3 of those points I have covered already. If you are refusing to see the reasoning behind it. Now you are saying that because I did not present cases that you asked for I am scum? I said I would be out of the thread for 12 hours as I was sleeping. So you ask me a question after i have said that and use my lack of response that you were aware of as I said I was sleeping so now there is no motivation for jingles play? you have said that there was scum motivation for jingles play for the past 2 days and now there is no motivation? You realise that was my issue with the jingle case right? 1. if not for you baiting me. I would NEVER have said anything in order to 'save zork' 2. I did not see zorks claim. I was simply fulfilling my promise to stop a no lynch. 3. I know I am town. So if as town I am put into a situation where I was clearly trapped. Then I am obviously going to come after that person. addendum: So now that I know what you are up to I will say this. TOWN: when I flip green can you please do something about this guy. I don't mind dying as long as it helps us win the game.
@Darth
I'm with you on this particular thing. Seems like a lot of work to go through for scum to get one mislynch so I'm not ready to call Ange scummy. You're partially at fault for perpetuating the argument, but I see your defense is transparent and ringing true, so I'm calling it two misguided townies aimed at each other. I suggest you both drop this for now, because it's been going nowhere for at least 12 hours, and start looking elsewhere.
@Ange you'll have to make a better case than that to convince me that anyone is more scummy than Jingle.
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On August 06 2012 06:33 aRyuujin wrote:
Expect Goodkarma to paint me as 100% scum #3, he's been tunneling me literally all game long
My last post towards aRyuujin was completely disregarded. Where the hell does this post come from?
The only town motivation I can see for aRyuujin to come into the thread pointing out that GK has been "tunneling" him the entire game is that he's been essentially inactive for most of the game and it's self preservation for the sake of the town. That said, there's nothing coming from aRyuujin that's showing me he's town.
Yes, GK's earlier play was easily characterized as primarily anti-lurker. GK was mentioning aRyuujin a lot during his anti-lurker posts. I wouldn't call that "tunneling" since it's stating the obvious.
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On August 06 2012 07:45 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2012 07:40 Obvious.660 wrote:On August 06 2012 07:31 DarthPunk wrote:On August 06 2012 07:10 Ange777 wrote:So if you have been avidly following my conversation with DarthPunk you will probably have realized we don't really see eye to eye. Now I am going to give him another reason to disagree with me. I am proposing to lynch DarthPunk first instead of Jingle.You might think that it does seem like an aweful OMGUS vote after I have been vividly arguing with DarthPunk but OMGUS isn't about WHO you vote, it's about HOW you vote them. A vote is only OMGUS if you're voting them BECAUSE they voted you. If you vote them for a well-thought-out reason, even if they also voted you, then it's not OMGUS.
Let's first go through the reasons why I wanted to vote him anyway: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=48#9451. During the Zork lynch discussion DarthPunk repeatedly soft-defended Zork, pushed Mordanis as lynch candidate and proposed to lynch aRyuujin instead of Zork.
2. He switches votes very conveniently at around the same time when Zork fake claims medic. I believe that scum decided in their QT to concede to the Zork lynch. Instead of really defending himself against my accusations DarthPunk makes a huge WIFOM explanation and decides to paint me scummy by saying I set him up with a trap. He denies me any kind of town motivation for pointing out Zork's scumslip. Yet he was happy to give Zork the benefit of doubt until last minute even though many people pointed out his scum behaviour. I see a clear scum motivation for his behaviour:
1. Save Zork and mislynch Mordanis (or aRyuujin at least) instead
2. When there is no way to save Zork, switch the vote before Zork's claim to get a bit of town cred
3. Discredit me as I am the most active power behind his lynch and mislynch me insteadWith him being called out as scum by several people DarthPunk is just flailing around desperately trying to shift the attention to someone, anyone besides himself. He didn't even give us any other reads besides me. I can only repeat it: This is no pro town play! DarthPunk, I'd really like to congratulate you for writing the best case on yourself -> your own filter!So why lynch DarthPunk before Jingle? After all this discussion I am even more convinced of him being scum than I am of Jingle. I made the case on Jingle because there was no town motivation for his awful play. If he isn't just simply bad he must be scum. However this case against DarthPunk is based on his clear scum motivation and not based on the lack of town motivation. To make it clear: If I am 99% convinced that Jingle is scum, than I am 100% convinced that DarthPunk is scum.In my opinion we can not let him get away with this! ##Unvote
##Vote DarthPunk OK all 3 of those points I have covered already. If you are refusing to see the reasoning behind it. Now you are saying that because I did not present cases that you asked for I am scum? I said I would be out of the thread for 12 hours as I was sleeping. So you ask me a question after i have said that and use my lack of response that you were aware of as I said I was sleeping so now there is no motivation for jingles play? you have said that there was scum motivation for jingles play for the past 2 days and now there is no motivation? You realise that was my issue with the jingle case right? 1. if not for you baiting me. I would NEVER have said anything in order to 'save zork' 2. I did not see zorks claim. I was simply fulfilling my promise to stop a no lynch. 3. I know I am town. So if as town I am put into a situation where I was clearly trapped. Then I am obviously going to come after that person. addendum: So now that I know what you are up to I will say this. TOWN: when I flip green can you please do something about this guy. I don't mind dying as long as it helps us win the game. @Darth I'm with you on this particular thing. Seems like a lot of work to go through for scum to get one mislynch so I'm not ready to call Ange scummy. You're partially at fault for perpetuating the argument, but I see your defense is transparent and ringing true, so I'm calling it two misguided townies aimed at each other. I suggest you both drop this for now, because it's been going nowhere for at least 12 hours, and start looking elsewhere. @Ange you'll have to make a better case than that to convince me that anyone is more scummy than Jingle. I would drop it but I have clearly explained the above points and people continue to bring them up against me. Should I not correct them?
I think you already have. The evidence is in your favor. The case against you is flimsy at best.
On August 06 2012 07:10 Ange777 wrote:
1. During the Zork lynch discussion DarthPunk repeatedly soft-defended Zork, pushed Mordanis as lynch candidate and proposed to lynch aRyuujin instead of Zork.
2. He switches votes very conveniently at around the same time when Zork fake claims medic. I believe that scum decided in their QT to concede to the Zork lynch.
Instead of really defending himself against my accusations DarthPunk makes a huge WIFOM explanation and decides to paint me scummy by saying I set him up with a trap. He denies me any kind of town motivation for pointing out Zork's scumslip. Yet he was happy to give Zork the benefit of doubt until last minute even though many people pointed out his scum behaviour.
1. You felt Mordanis was a better candidate. He's been a controversial figure the entire game, but whatever. I'll concede he had his ups and downs but who hasn't?
2. It's easier to believe you were already in the process of writing your post when the fake claim occurred. I can't see someone who writes as deliberately and meticulously as you fucking up a scum bus THAT BAD by posting just a few minutes after it begins. Honestly if scum wanted to throw away the game like that they should have conceded and stopped wasting our time.
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On August 06 2012 08:58 aRyuujin wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 06 2012 08:49 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2012 08:45 aRyuujin wrote:On August 06 2012 07:48 Obvious.660 wrote:On August 06 2012 06:33 aRyuujin wrote:
Expect Goodkarma to paint me as 100% scum #3, he's been tunneling me literally all game long My last post towards aRyuujin was completely disregarded. Where the hell does this post come from? The only town motivation I can see for aRyuujin to come into the thread pointing out that GK has been "tunneling" him the entire game is that he's been essentially inactive for most of the game and it's self preservation for the sake of the town. That said, there's nothing coming from aRyuujin that's showing me he's town. Yes, GK's earlier play was easily characterized as primarily anti-lurker. GK was mentioning aRyuujin a lot during his anti-lurker posts. I wouldn't call that "tunneling" since it's stating the obvious. ... If by your last post you mean this? + Show Spoiler +On August 05 2012 19:14 Obvious.660 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 05 2012 18:50 Obvious.660 wrote:On August 05 2012 18:40 aRyuujin wrote:
EBWOP
ninja'd by alan lol
he's basically agreeing with me at this point, so chances are we're both scum or both town. As Jingle is more scummy than either of us, and I think DP is too, I think it's fairly obvious that we're both town.
@Obvious
I can see why you think I'm scum because of inactivity. I've noted several times how my lurking has been bad. I'd like to ask you a question, though.
Why the hell would scum me miss day 2 vote? Scum can plan out votes/plays and jump on bandwagons much easier, as their goal is NOT actually finding scum, rather just looking like town (no shit). I Did you finish that post? There's an I at the end there, so I just wanted to know if you had anything else to add before I answer. Something more like this? Show nested quote +Scum aRyuujin:
Why the hell would scum me miss day 2 vote? Scum can plan out votes/plays and jump on bandwagons much easier, as their goal is NOT actually finding scum, rather just looking like town (no shit). I lost track of the thread trying to look like bad town and it slipped my mind because I wasn't going to make a meaningful vote anyhow. I honestly don't know what to tell you. Your read on me is that I'm scum faking as a bad town who turned into a bad scum while still having this genius bad town fake. This seems like a logical read /sarcasm. People LYNCH bad townies (you yourself said something to that extant.) When I saw that post, I thought you were just joking, I didn't realize that was your actual analysis. Now at DP: + Show Spoiler +On August 06 2012 08:27 DarthPunk wrote:If I had to make a scum read right now. It would probably be on Aryuujin. I am far from confident in my ability to make reads but the logic behind an aRyuujin lynch is this. Take this HYPOTHETICAL situation: Obvious, GoodKarma and aRyuujin make it to endgame. Obvious is town, Goodkarma is scum, aRyujjin is town. If you take that situation aRyuujin is a CLEAR liability. Take another: Myself, Ange777 and aRyuujin make it to endgame. I am town, ange777 is Town and aRyuujin is scum If you take that situation aRyuujin is a clear liability also. Add to that these points: Every single opinion he has had has been on someone on which a bandwagon has formed. Every single piece of analysis of his has been blatantly plagiarised off other players. He has never taken an unpopular stance. He has voted for Golbat on his bandwagon. Missed a vote. Voted for Mordanis when he was the most popular choice and his reasoning was almost the exact same as mine from a few posts earlier. Voted for Zork at the last minute. Now is jumping on the jinglehell/darthpunk bandwagon Martyrs himself slightly and disappears again. With all that being said I find it equally likely him to just be a bad town as a scum (oh no I am 'soft defending' him) but at this point he is a CLEAR liability right now, and will become an even larger liability as the game progresses. UNLESS his posting and analysis improve dramatically. @ aRyujjinShow nested quote +On August 05 2012 17:26 Obvious.660 wrote:
Your current play is 100% against the town win condition.
You're saying that I jumped on the Jingle/DP bandwagon? Look at the thread. I'm pretty sure I was the first to point at that BOTH of you are scum working together. Actually, I think I'm also the first to really say you're scum. Another thing to note is your usage of these heavily negative connoted words, like 'blatantly plagiarized'. You're bringing up Obvious' HOLY FUCK YOU NEED TO GET LYNCHED big red signpost. You're starting to get emotional, defensive, and are now striking back at your accusers. Another sign of scum. You're continuing to follow the pattern of behavior that Ange set out, even ignoring Jingle to make me your number 1 target. Sorry, DP, but you're digging yourself deeper and deeper into your hole. @Ange: As I said earlier, I'm certain that it's Jingle/DP as remaining scum. However, I think its important to lynch Jingle first, as that's what Shady wants us to do, and he's our biggest townie right now. I'll vote Darthpunk if town decides that we're going with him, but as of now I plan to vote Jingle today and DP tomorrow. Ah I am far from emotional. In fact I would say that you are being emotional and are lashing back at your accusers. I'd actually like to point out that my main accusers have been GK (all game long) and Shady Sands (Fairly recently). I'm only now getting annoyed with GK, and of course neither scum nor town me would accuse Shady. However, the supposed striking back at you that you say I'm doing... actually began BEFORE you accused me. Pretty weird how that works, huh... In my eyes, you're just driving yourself deeper into red territory now. Something else I'd like to note is that throughout the game, my main supporters have been Keirathi (mason who was NKd) and Promethelax (townie who was lynched the day I missed). Why would scum me NK Keirathi? Seems kind of dumb if you ask me. Especially when noone but Shady knew he was mason, and he wasn't scumhunting very heavily. Now, let's pretend for a minute that I'm scum following the plan that Obvious laid out for me. Why would I sit back and let Promethelax get lynched? as a supporter of mine, it would make a lot more sense to keep him alive.
aRyuujin, you still there? Today's your day, mate. DarthPunk wants your case against him, and I'd welcome any contributions you have to helping us figure out who is scum. That's the whole reason I built a case against you, if you haven't noticed. You've posted a few times today, what can a case or two hurt to add?
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Okay so I went through DarthPunk's filter and rediscovered our little disagreement from earlier in the game. Originally I dismissed it as him misunderstanding the intent of my post.
In its original form:
+ Show Spoiler [The original] +On July 30 2012 18:57 Obvious.660 wrote:Of the remaining people, outside of myself and Promethelax, we have alan133 and DarthPunk who did not vote for Golbat. Since I have already gone back and forth with Promethelax and found his reasons for voting for Shady Sands similar to but above and beyond my own, there are two players remaining to look at.
First I'll take a look at alan133's posts: Some behavior analysis: consistent in his methods for determining his best scum target. His vote on Shady Sands was not willy-nilly, and he considered the cases against Golbat and Mordanis as well before casting his vote. Solid play on this end, in my opinion, at least throughout D1. Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 03:55 alan133 wrote:
However, loosely quoting someone: "The goal of lynching is to get scum", I am still in favor of Shady lynch instead of Golbat for I believe the former has a much higher chance to flip scum, in other words, I am keeping my vote, unless it is really necessary for me to switch to make a lynch happen, but I will probably be sleeping as the vote is tally. I urge all who has not voted (or already voted but not into the potential lynch target) to reconsider their votes aiming for a lynch. At this point there were 5 votes for Golbat. Two possibilities for this rather well timed post: Town alan133 wants to make sure we don't get into a no-lynch scenario, as that gives us little to work with for actual information that can be 100% confirmed (a flip)or Scum alan133 is setting himself up to ensure a mislynch won't end up looking bad on him if he has to put his vote in as the one of the last people on the Golbat vote list.Of these two scenarios, I'm more easily convinced that alan133 is acting in the best interests of the town. I did want to mention this though if any suspicions arise regarding his votes or actions in the future. I have a question for alan133:How did you make sense of goodkarma's post regarding Keirathi? I'm not really able to pinpoint exactly where that case even is, so you'll need to point it out for me, please.
DarthPunk's filter: So the first thing I notice after processing the first half of my post here is that DarthPunk and alan133 both ended up posting around the time where Golbat was at 5 votes. DarthPunk also explained that he would be willing to change his vote from Mordanis to Golbat to avoid a mislynch with his post 40 minutes later. Sounds appropriate given the situation, from a town perspective. But again, we're at the two scenarios as above where we're either seeing avoiding looking bad for the mislynch, or staying around to ensure there is a lynch. It seems his main reason for staying on Mordanis is motivated by finding Mordanis' play as confusing to the town as well as not being convinced about his own case(s).
So are they connected somehow? Outside of their willingness to switch votes, here's all I can see: - No direct mention of alan133 in DarthPunk's filter.
- alan133 doesn't agree with DarthPunk's assessment of Mordanis in this post:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 12:23 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 11:54 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 10:17 DarthPunk wrote:So I just read through the thread and the first post that really sprang out at me was this. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. So after some policy discussion Mordanis makes his case against Keirathi. After some WIFOM we get to this - If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. So Keirathi is blue and we are in bad shape if he is NK/Lynched. but then we get to this: If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And this: So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Twice stating that Keirath is is our best lynch at the moment which is a direct contradiction to his other premise. he ends with this: I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now So after backflipping from his first premise (that it would be terribad for Keirathi to be NK and an even worse for us to mislynch him), and TWICE stating that Keirathi is our best Lynch. Mordanis decides that it isn't wise to commit right now after all. This post was WIFOM, contradiction and confusion. At best it is saying something while saying nothing. At worst it is a deliberate attempt of scum to mislynch their blue read day 1. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. Yeah it does doesn't it. FoS Mordanis I'm not sure we can use internal contradictions between Mordanis' three different points as evidence, given that they are illustrating three different "what-ifs". That being said, though, his logic as to why point #2 is the least likely and point #3 is the most likely doesn't hold water (or rather, doesn't exist), and each of his points are pretty farfetched. I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself. Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching. -He posts 3 different scenario's on Keir which contradicted one another (he states these as a 'case', whatever). 2 of the 3 have Keir as a blue and the third as scum. Yet he still sees Keir as the best lynch. The case is completely confused and without a logical narrative, based on a 'virtual claim' by Keirathi that I honestly don't think is there. There is no reason whatsoever that I can think of to make a case with internal contradictions. Am I missing something here? -It is statistically likely that he will flip green. but you can say that about anyone. If you think he is town or not suspicious don't vote for him. Read filters, make a case etc.
For this reason:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 12:46 alan133 wrote:I refreshed to forum I see Mordanis is currently under fire for his post. After reading Darth's case I don't think he is a good day 1 lynch for the following reason. - The only fault I see in his post is that Mordanis put words into Keirathi's mouth, with his sketchy logic based on his assumption that Kei role claimed.
- Those "contradictory" scenarios are not contradictory because it is not related to each other.
- Mordanis is the first person to bring out a case. Ignoring WIFOM, this is a town favored trait.
I don't see any obvious connections here. The only things they had in common so far really was they didn't vote for Golbat, and both were willing to change votes. This tells me nothing of either of them individually but leads me to believe that they are not necessarily of the same alignment.
The part that Darth took issue with was that I said he would switch to Golbat to secure the lynch. So why would I say something like that?
Reality: I was merely stating that at the time of his post, the most likely candidate for lynch based on the attitude of the town was Golbat who was in first place with 5 votes. In second place was Shady Sands with 3 votes, not exactly a contender for a guaranteed lynch. Easier to use the word Golbat because it actually mirrors reality.
He makes it sound like I accused him of a blatant scum slip. Initially I didn't see why Darth would want to correct me, but I finally get it.
Darth's Overreaction: Obvious claims I stated I would vote to lynch Golbat. Better correct him so they don't think I said something very clearly scummy when nobody was looking.
If Darth had never brought this up and tried to correct me, it would have flown under my radar. I had already dismissed my post as crap and forgotten about it. Thinking about it now, it seems more likely that Darth was too forward thinking in his response to it. Forward thinking. That seems to have come up in a conversation with him, too:+ Show Spoiler [Getting Ahead] +On August 05 2012 19:24 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 05 2012 18:45 Ange777 wrote:
A wise man once said: When you are ahead, get more ahead. Why bus their own team member when scum could have easily get a mislynch on another townie: Mordanis? Votes were stuck evenly for quite a long time.
Anyway, I want to hear your scum reads. I have a feeling you are accusing me of bussing Zork? What? you had suspicions that that is where I was going before I even accused you? Is this because it is the one thing you are afraid of people thinking? On August 05 2012 19:29 DarthPunk wrote:
EPWOP: They were far ahead. Zork was inactive and not contributing, had suspicions raised against him several times. It would be a smart play to trade the most obvious member of their scum team for lots of town credit and 2 further mislynches (which you have prepared beforehand.) That is getting further ahead. That is winning the game.
I got a laugh from this. I just spent a few min trying to find out how it happened, innocent error that looks really fishy if you don't see where it came from:
On August 03 2012 20:35 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2012 20:01 DarthPunk wrote:
I think your case against Mordanis is good. But right now, I am not willing to vote for someone, whom I think has a decent chance of flipping scum when I am convinced that Zork will flip scum!
This is the problem I have as well. The inner quote is actually from Ange. Solved the mystery. Imagine if this was Darth actually saying he's concerned Zork will flip scum.
Edit before having to double post: It appears we lit a fire under this one...
On August 06 2012 15:55 aRyuujin wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2012 15:35 DarthPunk wrote:
@Jingle. I have a town read on you because you are experiencing exactly what I am experiencing. If the same people that are trying to mislynch you are also trying to mislynch me. I assume you must be town. If you think there is an ulterior motive for me believing you to be town and that that is enough reason to vote for me, so be it.
That being said. I will continue to post cases and defend myself but I am sheeping shadys vote no matter what this cycle. If shady votes for me I will vote for myself etc. The reason for this is that the situation is bad at the moment. a mess really. I will sheep the vote of the confirmed town. Whilst still contributing as much as possible.
If I had to vote for someone right now it would be aRyuujin he had less than a pages worth of filter but has LEAPT into action now more than one person is considering voting for him. I mean read his filter. the contrast is obvious.
So basically you don't want any responsibility for your vote? It's been said, time and time again, the strongest weapon of a town is their vote. Abandoning your vote is NEVER a pro town move. Now, let's see what he actually says in this post. He has a town read on Jingle. Why? Because DP says DP is town, and anyone who says DP is town cannot ever accuse someone correctly. Seems legit. Now, let's see, why would DP actually say Jingle is town? Maybe... it's because DP ALREADY KNOWS that Jingle is town. Darthpunk is furthering his ploy to have Jingle's green flip make him look clean. Shady, come on man. At this point, lynching Darthpunk needs to be priority #1.
Honestly I'm too tired to go further with this. I see a few votes already heading in this direction.
Darth has a town read on Jingle.
On August 06 2012 16:07 goodkarma wrote:
EBWOP: Jingle has been spending his posting time calling us tunneling sheep, which is hardly a compelling defense -_-
I don't really see a reason to disagree with GK's summary. I'm trying to figure out how he can know Jingle is town without the use of WIFOM.
##VOTE DarthPunk
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On August 07 2012 06:25 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2012 06:14 goodkarma wrote:Lol nice call everyone I'm really going to need to talk more with the hosts post-game, as I didn't see Darthpunk as the clear scum you all did. I mean, scum coordinating the Zork vote change so last-minute didn't feel like a likely scenario for me. I think this clears suspicion from Ange, if there was any... I'm looking forward to everyone's opinions on who the next lynch should be. Darthpunk suggested Jingle was town... Was that a scumslip, or is that his way of trying to ensure Jingle's survival? I honestly am not sure at this point. I've got a lot of reassessing to do on my reads, and if this flip is any indication, a lot of learning left to do. Well, even though I know I'm town, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if you people decided to lynch into me to save effort, although I'd prefer to do something sane, like looking at common votes between DP and Zork. There's a nice one who I already tried to make a case against, specifically, Alan. Obviously we can WIFOM a scenario where I'm scum and the entire DP lynch was a setup to buy me enough town credit to potentially win the day, but that seems like a slightly absurd way to do it when it would have been easier and safer for DP to aggressively bus me, if I were scum. The whole scenario makes the most sense if you believe I'm town, DP knew in advance that a lynch on me would flip green, and wanted to earn town credit after my mislynch. So, would anyone like to go back and read my case against Alan instead of just dismissing it out of hand this time?
Jingle, you might be on to something with Alan. I just had something occur to me, let me see if I can go find it in the thread...
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15662306
That's the last time I took a look at Alan. Does anyone else want to weigh in on what I wrote before in light of the current flip?
Still paging through filters to see if I can find the thing that stuck out in my mind, we can't use the ALL pages thing for this thread anymore so no easy CTRL+F
Okay, here's something worthy of note:
On July 31 2012 00:28 Zorkmid wrote:
@alan133
What do you say about Obv's case against you? The post was almost two hours before yours, but you make no mention of it.
Did you just not see it?
Why would scum partners do this publicly? I have no idea. My thinking is that scum partners would probably say something like this outside of the thread to stay disconnected, especially when the case is so weak. WIFOM, I know, I know. Something to think about. Zork's effort just to keep people off of him?
Here's Alan's response: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15665993
Broken out, here is Alan's response to me:
On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
Now onto the "Alan could be a scum trying to distant himself from a mislynch". This is all based on Mordanis' "I think scum could be trying to distant himself from the mislynch". I did not vote for Golbat because his play was strikingly similar to mine in my last game, which coincidently I am also a VIG. Of course, there is no way to tell, and people who voted for Golbat has decent arguments. However, I voted for Shady because I believe he is much likely to flip scum compared to Golbat. There is no reason to not go with my read, especially when it does not risk a no-lynch.
Also, I agree on Mordanis' logic. Looking back at Golbat's post, his later characteristics such as "unsure who to vote" could be easily interpreted as scummy. One scum could have easily start the bandwagon on him, and the remaining ones could have easily hide. I believe it is highly possible that there is at least one scum hiding among the non-golbat vote crowd.
Following this line of logic I also realized MrMedic failed to vote, so is he in the "not on Golbat's bus" group? While I don't think this automatically qualifies him as scum, I absolutely hate players who missed a vote; there is no commitment made for us to judge such players.
This sounds reasonable enough. I didn't vote for Golbat either, both of us were voting for Shady at the time with Promethelax as the third.
+ Show Spoiler [Day 1 final vote count] +On July 29 2012 06:02 ghost_403 wrote:
FINAL VOTE COUNT FOR DAY 1:
aRyuujin ( 1 ): Golbat,
Golbat ( 7 ): Ange777, aRyuujin, goodkarma, Keirathi, Mordanis, Shady Sands, Zorkmid,
Mordanis ( 1 ): DarthPunk,
Shady Sands ( 3 ): alan133, Obvious.660, Promethelax,
Golbat was lynched by the town!
MrMedic has been pardoned for failing to vote.
Jingle's case:On August 04 2012 07:41 JingleHell wrote:Also, look through Zorkmid's filter. If you'll notice, there's one person who swapped even later than I did, who even I suspect, who Zorkmid NEVER seemed to be interested in, despite this player being in the game the whole time. That's Alan. Alan starts by wanting to discuss tons of policy. LinkHuge WIFOM, no commitment. LinkWishy Washy on Golbat, creates distance from a mislynch. LinkDefends Zork lightly. LinkKisses up a little, and references a game where out of several cases made, I only had a 50% scum lynch record. LinkOMGUS against Mord LinkIf you really think I'm the next best lynch, well... I'm probably not. I switched at a point where there was no way to avoid suspicion. Please don't make a case revolve around that, as it leads towards confirmation bias.
I'll have to take a longer look at this in a few hours when I get home. My initial impressions are the WIFOM and OMGUS links are good candidates for points against Alan. Policy talk D1 isn't a huge issue alone. Changing his stance on Golbat in favor of voting for Shady Sands was understandable given Shady's "if Golbat then Mordanis" posts which were crazy WIFOM and confusing. Regarding the Prom vote, it's damning to me is that I had a town read on Promethelax at the time, whereas I had null read on Zorkmid. Certainly more points against Alan, but that doesn't necessarily make him the scummiest player at the moment.
I'm on my way out the door. I'll be back in 6 or 7 hours.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/27/12617114554009a9322.jpg/)
