EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 4
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 21 2012 23:29 Hapahauli wrote: @ Hopeless1der - Good analysis, I have some commentary below regarding some of your conclusions. Agree on Jingle/YourHarry being guarenteed townies, however, I severely disagree with you on Tube. While wiggles did build a case on Tube, its important to note the timing and situation in which he did so. Wiggles votes for Tube when the bandwagon train is firmly on Obvious.660 (3 votes for obvious, vs 1 vote for a bunch of other people) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=22#423 They then get into an "argument" when Obvious.660 is set to lynch. After the night, drwiggl3s never mentions Tube again, even after grilling him for so long. This points to the "argument" being staged in a safe situation for both mafia. But the most incriminating evidence against Tube is his D2 vote and his complete lack of posting on D2. Tube was willing to post plently on N1, then immediately got quiet when suspicion was flying around Calgar and YourHarry. Furthermore, he comes in right when Jingle points out drwiggl3s scumslip and bandwagon votes iamperfection. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=44#870 <--- the vote, be sure to read the context around it Hapa, you make a good point about wiggles dropping the case after day1. However, I disagree with your point about the specific timing of wiggles' vote. I dont think it was 'firmly' set on Obvious. The votecount following wiggles' vote is: + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2012 05:43 Acrofales wrote: V V V V VOTE COUNT!!! Obvious.660 (4): Tube (3): YourHarry (2): Fulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (1): JingleHell (0): Not yet voted: Fulla Obvious.660 set to be lynched You have about 2 1/4 hours till the deadline. Please use the correct format for voting, including ##s and unvotes when needed. Wrong votes will not be found by cntrl-f + Show Spoiler [previous count] + On July 18 2012 01:56 Acrofales wrote: V V V V VOTE COUNT!!! Obvious.660 (3): Tube (1): Fulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (1): calgar YourHarry (1): Not yet voted: Fulla, Mufaa, drwiggl3s, YourHarry, Evulrabbitz You have about 6 hours till the deadline. + Show Spoiler [previous count] + On July 17 2012 14:55 Probulous wrote: Vote Count Obvious.660 (2): YourHarry, JingleHell Tube (1): YourHarry (0): You have about 17 hours till the deadline. The votecount at deadline: + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2012 07:31 Probulous wrote: Vote Count Obvious.660 (6): Tube (2): YourHarry (0): Fulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (3): JingleHell (0): Obvious.660 set to be lynched + Show Spoiler [Previous Vote Count] + On July 18 2012 05:43 Acrofales wrote: V V V V VOTE COUNT!!! Obvious.660 (4): Tube (3): YourHarry (2): Fulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (1): JingleHell (0): Not yet voted: Fulla Obvious.660 set to be lynched You have about 2 1/4 hours till the deadline. Please use the correct format for voting, including ##s and unvotes when needed. Wrong votes will not be found by cntrl-f + Show Spoiler [previous count] + V V V V VOTE COUNT!!! Obvious.660 (3): Tube (1): Fulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (1): calgar YourHarry (1): Not yet voted: Fulla, Mufaa, drwiggl3s, YourHarry, Evulrabbitz You have about 6 hours till the deadline. + Show Spoiler [previous count] + On July 17 2012 14:55 Probulous wrote: Vote Count Obvious.660 (2): YourHarry, JingleHell Tube (1): YourHarry (0): You have about 17 hours till the deadline. There was still ample opportunity to get tube lynched and wiggles did make some effort to do so. Tube's posting history is most certainly against him, but I still think he is town.By no means do I expect this to change your mind, but I want it made clear that I think tube is town and I am not currently willing to push for his lynch. I went through calgar's filter, and I especially took notice of his case against iamperfection. Looking at the way the votes fell, I think Hapa and calgar might have had the right idea day1 voting for iamperfection. At the end of day1: Jingle, Harry, Evul are all voting for Obvious' lynch and are pretty much confirmed townies. I think tube is also town, and Fulla doesn't read scum. which leaves iamperfection. (This all goes out the window when you consider tube or fulla being mafia, which at present I do not) Calgar, I'm reading you as town now. I don't like the way you side with Hapa but not Jingle during N1, but I think thats the remnants of the Day1 'wait and see' business so I'm not going to count that against you. I agree with your earlier case that iamperfection is scum: On July 20 2012 07:19 calgar wrote: Here’s my case: + Show Spoiler + Let’s go back to iamperfection who I called out very early. I brought his case up before anyone else, as a matter of fact. If it’s such an obvious case then why was I the first to bring it up? I’d also like to remind you that a confirmed townie was suspicious of him. This is one of the reasons I thought obvious was innocent. Do me a favor and re-read my initial argument: On July 17 2012 06:24 calgar wrote: Two – Nice of you to grace us with a single post, iamperfection. I feel like this may have been somewhat buried so I’d like to bring it back to people’s attention. I want to call to attention poor logic and assumptions.Your logic: Hmm, so my premise about his anti-town behavior is wrong, based on your limited observations of being mafia last game? What?! First, that’s a terrible sample size. Second, it’s fallacious to assume that anything in your previous games has any relevance on how people will act in this one. Poor logic and mafia-like. What relevance does your specific last game have at all to our situation here? It looks like you just scanned my post quickly and attacked it as “trying to shift suspicion”. Did you even read it or consider what I meant? It seems like many others agree with me about his anti-town behavior. It seems you’re defending anti-town behavior of tube here. Why are you suggesting that I have some grand strategy of people to lynch? It looks to me like I made one very specific post about a single player. Yet I have plans of setting up a lynching policy to "confuse the town". Putting words into my mouth - very suspicious. Your post strikes me as if you were mafia and were planning how to enter the game late. You decided to jump onto someone’s reasoning bandwagon to try and avoid attention. Why do I say this? You make no effort in original thought. To me it looks like you scanned the thread, looked at who had been attacked, and said “Oh yeah I agree, FOS on the same two guys as jingle”. I think my case is straightforward and makes sense. Iamperfection has a habit of just jumping onto other people’s suspicions. It’s clear that he’s not even bothering to read the thread. He says neither I nor hapa have made arguments as a reason for us to be suspicious. We both, in fact, do. It’s like he’s playing a different game or all the arguments and evidence is just flying over his head. He then backs off of me after I vote him to avoid a confrontation. Now he’s back at it, tagging onto me with no reasoning. Look at this quote: On July 20 2012 01:24 iamperfection wrote: He bandwagons with jingle again. His second and third sentences are logically disconnected. What does the issue of whether or not mafia picked up on the breadcrumb have to do with how risky it is for jingle to lie? His play is so careless. It's fact that I've challenged people in the thread to talk more. iamperfection has never done this. Why does it seem that I am the only one that feels strongly about this?Jingles claim looks legitamate to me. I'm not buying any crap that jingle should be dead because he bread crumbed. It would be so risky for jingle to lie and hell this is newbie mafia i didnt spot the bread crumb and im sure a lot of players didnt spot it. I think perf is very likely mafia. Even if you think I'm a bit suspicious, I knew jingle was JK so you're saying that mafia knew of the JK and didn't shoot. Why would mafia ever pass up such an easy blue? It looks like the mafia may have missed the breadcrumb. iamperfection missed it and I think he’s mafia. Is this not plausible? Lynch him first – you can always come back to me with more information. However, I've come to that conclusion using a read that conflicts with your own (that tube is or isnt town). I'd like to get some more posts from both tube and iamperfection to confirm our reads, but I am most comfortable pushing for iamperfection's lynch tomorrow. Most recently, iamperfection voices his concern that YourHarry is probably a bad idea, but doesn't switch his vote until after Jingle has moved on. It could very well be that he was scared of drawing attention, or he could be hiding behind Jingle's town cred. I see either action as being scum than being town. He made no pro-active effort to save YourHarry, and I count that against him. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
In any case, he's not confirmed. If you develop a strong case on him I will absolutely consider it. @iamperfection: Jingle was clearly town. You are not clearly town, and leaving a vote on YourHarry makes you look scummier as you'll have been on both mislynches in that case. In addition, you were in the company of Jingle and Hapa - who started the case on YourHarry. You made your vote to "make us happy" in the first place. It just doesn't look good. In the event of a mislynch, you're the one I'm going to suspect most. Overall you haven't done much for town. You're scummier to me than tube, or anyone else in the game right now. I don't think pursuing your lynch is a waste of time at all. It should generate some discussion and hopefully confirm some reads going into the next day, even if we end up lynching someone else. The burden is now on you to prove your towniness. And finally, Good luck at the casino. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 22 2012 03:26 YourHarry wrote: I was dead wrong about JingleHell. He is CONFIRMED TOWNIE. But in my defense, even though I didn't buy his claim, I also did express my reservation on why JingleHell is not a good lynch, at least not yesterday. And my suspicion mostly came from not believing that he did not know vanilla townies get roleblocked. Of course, after what happened with drwiggle, I want to almost COMPLETELY withdraw any suspicion I had with Jingle. Okay. Now help us find more scum or identify more townies. What is your take on my read of tube being townie? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 22 2012 08:30 Fulla wrote: I've been accused/questioned, so I've written a defense but no answers. So first off why am I suspicious? Tell me what you want me to answer and I can help. It would help if I wasn't ignored  Also, so how many blue roles usually are there? We can pretty much assume there's no medic, is there usually 3 thou. So we might have a vigi to help? @Fulla: First off, on the blue roles: From what I've read, on TL newbie games are in general mafia favoured for one reason or another. Some hosts may attempt to give the town more blue roles to even the odds so to speak. That said, I haven't got a clue what a reasonable set up might be as I haven't played enough. I'd look into old Newbie Mini Mafia games for reference. As to why you're suspicious: When you were discussing the lynch on tube, you explained your reasoning such that if someone had a statistic that we pretty much wouldn't have, we could avoid lynching him. There is far more to making a scum read than just the number or length of a post. Your contributions were weak and in general not helpful in hunting scum. When you addressed Obvious, you came to the conclusion that alot of the reasoning used to vote for him seemed flawed, but you ended up voting for him anyways without really contributing anything to the discussion. I get that you may not have has a strong read one way or another, but the failure to weigh in on the discussions and sit by the sidelines while the town does all the work makes you look bad. Your vote day 1: + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote: Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens. Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch. Good point, I overlooked that. Let's see what he flips then. ## Vote Obvious.660 Completely untrue based on the lynch mechanics used this game. In no way could there have been a no lynch unless every single person voted for a no lynch. The fact that you didn't know this isn't necessarily scummy, but it makes you a liability because if you don't even understand the rules of the game, what confidence is there going to be in your reads when the thread is 50 pages long? I'm past the point of wanting to lynch someone for being bad town, as I think there is enough information to hunt scum, but earlier in the game, this type of behaviour might have stirred up a case on you if we lacked sufficient scum reads. Your vote day 2 (and my response to your case): + Show Spoiler + On July 19 2012 23:16 Fulla wrote: I screwed up the quoting, I meant to add, the part where he jumps in throws in more suspicion on Obvious, keeping it thriving, then try's to stay out of it and takes a stance that's he still going to vote me for lurking anyways. That to me is very scummy. ##Vote Hopeless1der When I threw my suspicion on Obvious I made it clear that I would be willing to vote him as well and that I supported his lynch. Your entire case on me is based primarily on the fact that I pressured you day 1. On July 19 2012 23:39 Fulla wrote: I actually had to look that up on google. So he votes me, I get angry and react voting him back? The point was: - He didn't contribute to other suspicions/discussions. - Kept on and on about how inactive I am. (other inactive players what about them?) Why so over the top? - Seems he REALLY wanted me in the spotlight with suspicion. - Still managed to come in and make sure obvious was lynched. - But try to stay out of it with me and his target. Is that not dodgy? - I absolutely contribute to other suspicions/discussions. - I kept on and on because I WANT YOU TO BE ACTIVE. If I started going after every lurker, I would not only be wasting my time, but I'd have looked like I just wanted to policy lynch all of the lurkers. This doesn't do anything towards hunting scum because lurkers don't give you any information. I focused on one player to try to get a more active town. - If you would have taken some time to be active and contribute some reads to the town, I would have gladly removed my vote and moved on. I don't think your posts have been very productive. - If I needed to switch my vote to secure Obvious' lynch, I would have done so. - Let's be clear. I was the only person to vote for you. No one else has considered this to be particularly scummy (yet?) I was not actively pushing for your lynch, I wanted some activity from you and voting for you seemed like it might light a fire under you. Unfortunately it didn't. My vote was for pressure only, and it never seemed necessary to switch it later in the day. It wouldn't have affected any of the votes, and I was happy at the time with Obvious' lynch. For the other parts of your case: When tube was being criticized, we spent almost 4 pages banging on that drum. It was getting old. Seriously, do you think I wasn't justified in suspecting you based on my observations? Shortly after my post tube picked up his posting and the discussion continued. When you re-appeared (Page 18), I responded to you 15 minutes later and never heard from you again. My question about your activity got answered when calgar brought it up again, but to me it looked like you were actively avoiding the fact that I was trying to call you out. When you returned the next time, my vote was already on you, but you never even addressed it. I'm pretty much convinced you didn't even notice at the time. If you had, why did you wait until the next freaking day to acknowledge it? I don't get how I can be seen as scummy based on my actions when you made absolutely no effort to confront me or defend yourself from my vote. You were never in any real danger anyways, but all of the sudden I'm scum because of it. When you call me out for creating an environment of suspicion, my focus at that point was tube, Obvious, and you. How does that constitute everyone? Your case doesn't make sense here. I wanted YOU to know how suspicious you are. If I'm the only one saying anything, clearly you don't see it. If multiple people call you on it, perhaps you'll be more inclined to contribute more to town. On July 19 2012 23:11 Fulla wrote: I was not the only 1 lurking, yet it had barely been a day and he wants everyone know how suspicious I am? OH LOOK OTHER LURKERS (see spoiler for more details)! On July 19 2012 23:11 Fulla wrote: + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2012 08:48 Hopeless1der wrote: Content notwithstanding, the following players are still on a 1 page filter: (Post count started from Day 1 post) Iamperfection: 3 posts Fulla: 5 posts Mufaa: 5 posts drwiggl3s: 14 posts Evulrabbitz: 7 posts Players from above who voted for Obvious.660: Iamperfection Evulrabbitz Fulla I'll be gone for a bit. Going to look into iamperfection when I return, because he looks scummiest of the players listed there. This to me reads, his scum buddies got Obvious lynched, but these instead wants these 3 lynched. Note that Evlrabbitz turned out town as well. It leads to believe iamperfection is in fact town as well. So, I decided that I had a scummier read than you that I wanted to look at and that makes HIM town? You're grasping at straws by this point trying to paint me as scum. Moving forward: Fulla if you still think I'm scum, I'd love to talk about it. In the meantime, I think you're town but doing a poor job of it. I don't plan to vote for you today. Please make a more thorough effort to read through the thread, identify things you find scummy and reasons you think they are scummy. The reasoning is in many cases the more important part of that equation as it is the part that convinces the rest of the town that your read is legit. Stand behind your decisions and play with conviction. If someone does something that you disagree with, make certain that they know that and why you feel that way. For example: On July 21 2012 04:43 Fulla wrote: I REALLY dislike how many votes Harry is getting it just makes me think of an exact bandwagon repeat of the obvious lynch. If he was scum I'd at least expect a struggle other scum trying to defend him or accuse others. Or if not scum jumping in and bussing him for town cred. As far as I know jingle is confirmed town? So I will just vote whatever he says. He's a much better player than me anyways. I'm at work so I can't contribute much this is from my mobile. I'll be back 30 min before deadline for a better read and vote. I still think my current vote is scum hopeless or hapless sorry I forgot? The guy trying to lynch me for nothing. But I'll back jingle. Last thing the eerie silence about Harry getting lynched makes me think mafia are just sitting back laughing letting it happen. Can we vote someone else please? You don't need permission to switch your vote. You made a correct read on YourHarry, but if Jingle hadn't jumped onto wiggles I don't think you would have switched your vote from Harry. You said yourself that you'd just vote whatever he says. Well to the town's great despair, he's gone now. What is your plan going forward? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
 Last paragraph) I was wrong about Fulla's vote, he was still on me D2. Reading that post I'd assumed that he'd already switched to match Jingle. Sentiment still stands at the end there. Push to get people off of someone you read as town and explain why. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote: Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it. Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya. @confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases. @direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now. IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also. ##Vote iamperfection [/gives calgar a cookie] I'm willing to get behind this vote, but calgar, I disagree with using the phrase 'confirmed' on most of us except YourHarry. Any one of us could be scum as far as I'm concerned. In the event that iamperfection flips town, I will consider you heavily implicated, despite the fact that you have played an active town role that has helped overall. You, me, Hapa, and speedbump are all candidates to be considered scum. I don't expect you to just believe me when I say I'M TOWN, I'M TOWN! I would have no trouble believing that you or Hapa were scum if you were to suddenly flip. I don't have a case because you've both exhibited very pro-town posting, but the possibility is always there, and you could be very good at looking pro-town. We're not confirmed yet, and I don't plan to forget it. I hope speedbump improves the lurker situation despite the time gap. The odds are in favour of him being town; I was also reading mufaa as town before he went afk on us. Again, as I've noted, I think tube is town. I'm also reading Fulla as town for now, despite his poor posting record. I don't find his voting particularly scummy. He thought he was securing a lynch day 1 instead of No-Lynching. He saw that wiggles was screwed day 2 and never moved his vote. I did a similar thing with voting day 1 that he did day 2. The only read of scum I have right now is iamperfection. ##Vote: iamperfection @Hapa My understanding of calgar's stance was that as long as Jingle is alive, iamperfection could be counted on to sheep him. The reluctance to wagon on Harry convinced calgar that this would be possible. Obviously that no longer applies, but I dont think his scum read of iamperfection ever went away, he was just ready and willing to lynch wiggles right then and there. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
@Perfection, there are a couple things you've brought up. 1 is my "trap" set for calgar. I originally suspected you two of bussing from the start, especially after calgar neglected to really push for your lynch day1. 2 is your suspicion about tube attempting to get you lynched to save wiggles. He also neglected to really push for your lynch. My reads are now all screwed up because tube has not supported any of his actions with good reasoning or analysis. Up until tube posted: On July 23 2012 04:43 tube wrote: I said more than that. I was reading him as town, and you as scum. Even after reading your case I thought so, as I feel you're pressed into a corner and have nothing else to push for except for tube's lynch. Having read his post, the fact that he doesn't seem to take this very seriously is very suspicious and drives me to want to vote for him instead of you. I'm not ready to swap my vote over completely, but I am prepared to ##Unvote This is looking like its going to be "too easy" to get tube voted. I'm pretty much the only one who ever gave him a town read to begin with. Seeing his posting regress to his initial garbage version makes we want to get rid of him as he was thoroughly berated for his style of posting and doesnt seem to give a damn. However, that in itself doesn't seem that scummy to me because it shows he's distinctly NOT trying, which sucks for town but doesn't prove his affiliation to me. I don't want to be lynching someone for being bad-town on D3. If he doesn't provide anything useful my hands are probably going to be tied as perfection has at least tried to make himself useful to town. Tube has not. Speedbump, YourHarry, Fulla, if you'd be so kind as to weigh in here. Who looks scummier and which lynch gives us more to go on tomorrow? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
I'm probably going to have some explaining to do either way tonight. What pushed me over the edge on tube was that I hadn't really considered the timing of his vote against iamperfection just before wiggles was being lynched (despite hapa clearly pointing it out). With YourHarry's analysis, and iamperfection fighting to keep the pressure on tube+ Show Spoiler + On July 23 2012 22:58 iamperfection wrote: its crap like this man it would have taken two seconds to go back and you would have seen i was the second vote on obcious. Also it was sure thing that drwiggle was going to be lynched when you voted for me? Try again go look back he had 0 votes when you voted for me. So unless you had the gift of foresight you couldnt have known and why would you lie about it now? Sorry that I didn't give too much yesterday. Currently at work so I may have a chance to catch up during lunch, otherwise I'll be back after the deadline. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Response to Calgar's Case On July 24 2012 12:12 calgar wrote: OK guys – here goes. I’ve looked through lots of filters and gotten nowhere. I referred back to XIX for inspiration and I went back through using this quote offered as advice at the end. With this idea in mind, I looked at who is positioning to look best after a mislynch. Positioning for after the mislynch will let them remind us how they are somehow “confirmed town”. They got their read right, so must be on our side. Since tube flipped town, mafia will try to position well for the mislynch. So I’m thinking – who of the 7 of us left voted and positioned to look best after the result? Only one person made any effort to justify their standing after the lynch. Yes, you hopeless. Not a chance. My entire stance since Jingle has died is that the only confirmed townie is YourHarry. Calgar, YOU were the one who spewed out 'confirmed townie'+ Show Spoiler + On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote: Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it. Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya. @confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases. @direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now. IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also. ##Vote iamperfection Further to ghost's quote, where are the LONG posts where I don't contribute anything? I think I've done a decent job of providing my reads and building cases when called upon. Responses to the quote below are italicized: On July 24 2012 12:12 calgar wrote: Think about this quote very carefully. What is he actually saying here? I’ve put in numbers and translated this post. 1-I think he’ll flip town. I’m the only one that thinks he’s town. 1a - I THOUGHT he'd flip town. I WAS the only one who THOUGHT he WAS town. Reads change. If that's scummy, then why aren't you still pushing iamperfection over me? 2-Here’s why you guys suspect him; here’s why I don’t. 2a- Here's why I'm still skeptical about voting for him, but I will acknowledge that he is behaving in a suspicious manner 3-I’m going to vote for him anyways. 3a- If he makes no effort to defend himself or contribute anything to town (Which he didn't and I voted for him as a result) Why is he reminding us that he is the only one who thinks he's town, when he's voting for him anyways? He gives reasoning why his opinion has decayed over time but neverthless he's trying to assert that he thinks tube is town. This is irrelevant because he is going to be killed anyways. The only thing your read could effect is our idea of you as a player afterwards. I was trying to explain WHY I changed my read so that THIS EXACT SITUATION could be avoided. Learn to understand the use of tenses to denote past, present and future thoughts or ideas. Everyone else thought tube was scum. I saw evidence that compelled me to agree and I adjusted my read accordingly. I explained my reasoning and followed through with my opinion as it changed. On July 24 2012 12:12 calgar wrote: Another point in the filter that demonstrates the same concept. While I was hoping that obvious was mafia, hopeless is trying to actively assert his innocence. I don’t think he’s in a necessarily suspicious position. He made his vote early and stuck on it and his vote wouldn’t have mattered. If he were town, he could have said something like “I had my read and I stuck to my guns… it was decided without me either way. I’m trying to pressure him to talk” I don’t think this would have been suspicious – he would be justified here in my opinion. What irks me is the fact that he brings it up. He is actively worried about what others are thinking of him, moreso than actually finding mafia. I think he is trying to confirm himself town, rather than actually hunt. If it wasn’t suspicious, then why is he trying to make himself even less suspicious when he wasn’t in the first place? He’s going to try and talk and squirm his way out but the actions can’t be taken back. Is his attitude focused on hunting or is it focused on asserting his innocence? I think it’s the latter. Why have we considered him town until now? One of the reasons I don’t agree with is that he (stupidly, if town) reminded us that there is no medic. I think that this move is bad for both town and mafia, though, and therefore not evidence of town. @Bolded: Actively tried to assert innocence AFTER I determined that I'd probably look scummy later. I WANT people to see the things I've done so that I get called out on it and get the opportunity to explain myself. The more you try to evoke a response from me, the more activity you get from me. The harder I get tunnelled, the more info to hunt scum is revealed after I die on the players who attacked me. I DON'T want to hide my actions. I explained what I saw and why I don't think my vote should be considered scummy the way it ended up at the end of Day 1. This is of course for the purpose of making myself 'look innocent' because the alternative is to let someone else bring it up and I look like I'm panicking to defend myself for my "suspicious vote." At the end of Day 2, we pestered Fulla and Tube for NOT explaining their actions. Now you're pestering me because I DID explain my vote. I'm not going to try to "squirm my way out". I explained myself, you read my explanation and you found it scummy. Pretty cut and dry. If other people agree or disagree, please let me know if you think I need to explain myself further. Overall, I'd like to believe my attitude has been on hunting scum. In this particular instance, it was 20 minutes to deadline with what looked like a hammered target. Was my attitude focused on my innocence right then and there? Yes. Did my attitude remain that way? I leave this question for the rest of the town to answer. Read my filter and let me know if you think I haven't been contributing my fair share towards scumhunting. Presumably, calgar and iamperfection are hurting over my 'trap' laid for them and I have limited faith in their propensity to change their read on me. I'm counting on YourHarry, Speedbump and Hapa to weigh in and let me know of anything else they think I should address. Fulla's welcome to join in as well, if he'll actually read the defense I posted on his case first. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 25 2012 01:56 calgar wrote: No point, nothing to gain. Everyone will claim VT regardless. If there is any blue role that can semi-confirm themselves that's a huge gain for town. If, in the event that there are no other blues, then you are correct. In which case we're right back to where we started. WHAT IS THERE TO LOSE BY CLAIMING? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
@Hapa: Here are my comments ##Vote: Calgar Let OMGUS War begin. Seriously though, I read through your FOS and pretty much agree with all of it. The biggest parts for me are: the 'summary' of wiggles' filter, his continued suspicions but lack of effort to lynch iamperfection, and this post: On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote: Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it. Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya. @confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases. @direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now. IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also. ##Vote iamperfection From which two have flipped town so far. The remaining one is on board with calgar to come after me today. The remaining one being iamperfection...you know, the guy that calgar has had a scum read on since day1? I know I should be hunting scum one at a time, but this continues to lend credence to them both being mafia. Not only that, but calgar attempts to say that he is confirmed town. Reeks of suspicious motive. This combined with both Jingle's Day2 Case and Hapa's FOS Case are more than enough to convince me he's scum. Roleclaims: The only thing I can see getting us another day is to either lynch scum or no-lynch. Roleclaiming can't really hurt us anymore. Either we have cop that can semi-confirm or we don't and it won't matter tomorrow when we're in lynch-or-lose territory. Am I missing a scenario where NOT claiming could help town in some way? Either way, my claim is Vanilla Senior. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 26 2012 00:16 iamperfection wrote: If you and me switch to no lynch that cant happen. that would bring it to 5 if a "town" speed bump randomly voted for someone and if the two scum switched no lynch would still win. Right? I think you're right actually. I wasn't considering "No-Lynch" to be a person and thought if someone came away with even 1 vote they'd get lynched. ##Unvote ##Vote: No Lynch | ||
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