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rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
July 27 2012 21:52 GMT
#3961
On July 28 2012 06:50 VisceraEyes wrote:
Gonzaw.

Him or Risk. it will confirm Austin's role. If they flip town then we can start looking at the chez, katina theory again....
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
July 27 2012 21:55 GMT
#3962
I mean we know Risk either got or sent that PM so it is 100% scum unless Austin is lying. The message is apparently very Gonzaw, so that makes him 95% scum. But since him being scum is predicated on risk being scum, I like risk just a tad better.

Q-bert-Z should be our last go to right now as it doesn't confirm Austin's version.
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
July 27 2012 21:56 GMT
#3963
On July 28 2012 06:55 rastaban wrote:
I mean we know Risk either got or sent that PM so it is 100% scum unless Austin is lying. The message is apparently very Gonzaw, so that makes him 95% scum. But since him being scum is predicated on risk being scum, I like risk just a tad better.

Q-bert-Z should be our last go to right now as it doesn't confirm Austin's version.

No we don't know that if there is a mafia role that can make it appear someone got a message they actually didn't, which is why I would rather lynch katina/gonzaw first. If katina is a minion as it appears, her role may provide some information.
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 27 2012 21:58 GMT
#3964
maybe it's best to think in worst case scenarios

which of the candidates (risk/katina/gonzaw/qbert), if they flipped town, would leave us not knowing what to do next? can we eliminate anyone like this?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
July 27 2012 21:59 GMT
#3965
It's a pretty convoluted theory, but again my problem is that q-bert-z also seems mafia.
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
July 27 2012 21:59 GMT
#3966
Syllo where is the certainty on Katina coming from? Did I miss something or is she just like...your strongest read?
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
July 27 2012 22:00 GMT
#3967
On July 28 2012 06:56 syllogism wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 28 2012 06:55 rastaban wrote:
I mean we know Risk either got or sent that PM so it is 100% scum unless Austin is lying. The message is apparently very Gonzaw, so that makes him 95% scum. But since him being scum is predicated on risk being scum, I like risk just a tad better.

Q-bert-Z should be our last go to right now as it doesn't confirm Austin's version.

No we don't know that if there is a mafia role that can make it appear someone got a message they actually didn't, which is why I would rather lynch katina/gonzaw first. If katina is a minion as it appears, her role may provide some information.

I see, so you think mafia might have sent that to risk as the messenger? then who messaged Chezinu? do you they have 2 messengers?
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 27 2012 22:01 GMT
#3968
On July 28 2012 06:58 marvellosity wrote:
maybe it's best to think in worst case scenarios

which of the candidates (risk/katina/gonzaw/qbert), if they flipped town, would leave us not knowing what to do next? can we eliminate anyone like this?


i'd seriously like this answered by people who have thought about this more deeply than me
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
July 27 2012 22:04 GMT
#3969
On July 28 2012 07:00 rastaban wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 28 2012 06:56 syllogism wrote:
On July 28 2012 06:55 rastaban wrote:
I mean we know Risk either got or sent that PM so it is 100% scum unless Austin is lying. The message is apparently very Gonzaw, so that makes him 95% scum. But since him being scum is predicated on risk being scum, I like risk just a tad better.

Q-bert-Z should be our last go to right now as it doesn't confirm Austin's version.

No we don't know that if there is a mafia role that can make it appear someone got a message they actually didn't, which is why I would rather lynch katina/gonzaw first. If katina is a minion as it appears, her role may provide some information.

I see, so you think mafia might have sent that to risk as the messenger? then who messaged Chezinu? do you they have 2 messengers?

I don't know the timing of these messages and the problem with my theory is that pretty much also requires a role that gets information about who is being targeted by day actions so they know where to send the message. There is a reason to believe that such a role exists if we believe mafia messenger sent that second message to chezinu, because there is no reason to send that "incriminating" message unless mafia knew the messages would get intercepted.

Could mafia really have a messenger role, a role that can send "fake" messages (it's possible that it's not actually fake and risk hasn't been around yet to read it) and a role that can see who are being targeted by day/night actions. I suppose one role could have multiple powers.
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
July 27 2012 22:05 GMT
#3970
So then isn't the simplest explanation just gonzaw/risk/qbert?
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
July 27 2012 22:06 GMT
#3971
No, katina is clearly mafia due to not posting that message she got earlier and because to "incriminate" chezinu mafia had to know the content of the message chezinu sent to her
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
July 27 2012 22:17 GMT
#3972
On July 28 2012 07:06 syllogism wrote:
No, katina is clearly mafia due to not posting that message she got earlier and because to "incriminate" chezinu mafia had to know the content of the message chezinu sent to her


All the offending message says is "I'm lonely, figure it out" or something right? Why would that require knowledge of what Chez sent to Katina?
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
July 27 2012 22:18 GMT
#3973
but they didn't know I was checking him ,there is no point to incriminate him as he could just post it. and why would she post that message, it is obvious who it was from.

We already saw Kurumi and Zealos didn't post in much more questionable situations.
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
July 27 2012 22:19 GMT
#3974
On July 28 2012 07:17 VisceraEyes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 28 2012 07:06 syllogism wrote:
No, katina is clearly mafia due to not posting that message she got earlier and because to "incriminate" chezinu mafia had to know the content of the message chezinu sent to her


All the offending message says is "I'm lonely, figure it out" or something right? Why would that require knowledge of what Chez sent to Katina?

Because in the message chezinu sent to katina he pretends to be foolishness, which is a clever way of answering the cryptic "I'm lonely, figure it out" (she is lonely because foolishness is dead).
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
July 27 2012 22:21 GMT
#3975
Well whatever, I'm done speculating and explaining. I could be wrong or right, but we can just ignore the messages for now and lynch katina/gonzaw first. We have enough lynches to go through all the parties involved.
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 27 2012 22:24 GMT
#3976
so what happens if katina or gonzaw flips town?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
July 27 2012 22:25 GMT
#3977
On July 28 2012 07:18 rastaban wrote:
but they didn't know I was checking him ,there is no point to incriminate him as he could just post it. and why would she post that message, it is obvious who it was from.

We already saw Kurumi and Zealos didn't post in much more questionable situations.


I think the rastaban has the right thinking here.
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
July 27 2012 22:27 GMT
#3978
On July 28 2012 07:21 syllogism wrote:
Well whatever, I'm done speculating and explaining. I could be wrong or right, but we can just ignore the messages for now and lynch katina/gonzaw first. We have enough lynches to go through all the parties involved.


Yeah I'm fine with waiting for more info. As I said, if we're limiting to those two, I prefer Gonzaw. Like...rather than answer gonzaw's (then still mounting) suspicions he brushes them aside as "oh it's just confirmation bias at this point" which could be true or not, but it seems an innocent gonzaw, as verbose as he tends to be, would explain in great detail why Probulous is mistaken. The fact that he didn't seems to indicate that he can't or doesn't care to...which given the amount gonzaw has been posting, it seems more likely that he can't.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
July 27 2012 22:27 GMT
#3979
EBWOP: answer Probulous' (then still mounting) suspicions...
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21171 Posts
July 27 2012 22:31 GMT
#3980
Although Katina selectively ignoring entire chunks of the thread is almost as bad...

Psh, whatever they can just WIFOM over who I prefer at this point.

Hear that guys?! I DON'T KNOW who I want to go first! Figure it out!
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
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