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Bass filter summary
-Mostly ignoring the Jingle/Harry/Hope dabate.
-Is putting some soft suspicion on TMG
-With 18 hours untill lynch he is the third person to jump on the Hope-wagon. Some people had briefly mentioned this case against Hope but he is the third one to make any accusations against Hope and also the third one to put a vote on him.
-In the same post as he is voting Hope, he says he is also suspicious of TMG and Zen.
-After his vote against Hope and before the lynch he has a few short posts. In all of these posts he is pushing the lynch on Hope in one way or the other.
-During N1 he posts suspicion on both Mackin and Jingle.
-He obviously drops his suspicion on Jingle when Evul claims but his suspicion on Mackin stands.
-He posts some very light suspicion on Release.
-He posts some heavy accusations against Zen_Man and votes him. He is not online at the time of Zen_Man's claim and is unable to swap the vote(understandable if you live in Australia).
-During all this time he have been suspicious of Mackin.
-Posts defence against those who wants to lynch him because of Evuls check.
-His overall logic makes sense and isn't missleading people.
This seems very town to me. At the time of his vote against Hope, the lynch against him were not set in stone. He posted suspicion on several other players at this time but STILL he chose to vote Hope and even push the lynch against him. He is putting up alot of pressure against Mackin which I don't see any problems with as I don't like his play either. Evul said he was suspicious because he was pushing Mackin but always voted for someone else. First off, he was pushing both of the players he voted, just look at his filter. Second, There isn't really a point in voting someone if noone else is taking notice of the case. So, for those of you who voted Bass, I ask you to read his filter. If you don't think it looks very scummy then unvote him and look for other scummy persons.
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On July 10 2012 13:04 Hapahauli wrote:LazerMonkey - Votes for JingleHell, posts lynch "wish-list" supspecting Jingle/JieXian/Hope/TMG, then changes vote to Hopeless when the vote total gets close at the end. Slightly suspicious, but his posting tone/analysis has been very pro townie so far, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
BassinSpace - Voted for Hopeless early, pushed for his lynch, no vote changes. I don't see any problems with this really. I had posted suspicion and my reasons for these suspicion for all people on my wish list. The reason I did it in the first place was because I wasn't able to be very active during the lynch because I could only post from my phone every now and then. I didn't want any sort of ''OMFG LAZER IS SWITCHING VOTE WITH NO REASON'' when that clearly wasn't the case.
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EBOWOP: failed that quote. Ignore the part about Bass.
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Late EBWOP about Bass filter: In fact he was the second one to put suspicion on Hope. Harry only voted him for no reason it seems. This shoudl make him look even better from a town point of view.
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On July 12 2012 05:28 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 04:11 Lazermonkey wrote:
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:
We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.
To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.
What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''. Come on. In your scenario, detective has no power because whoever he checked out, he would have received "guilty". Lynching either A or B would have equal probability of being scum, exactly 50%, regardless of detective's night report. Funny thing about scum hunting is that a player who acts scummy are often town and vice versa. In average, we hope that identifying scummy motivations in players' posts would allow us to choose players who are more likely to be scums. But there is a limit. In all my experience of playing scum, so many times I have been wrong lynching a player who I thought was scummiest. I continue to try to improve my scum hunting skills, but I am not confident that I will be able to identify scum 50% of the times in our current scenario. Regardless, as Hapha and I have previously discussed, it does not matter whether we lynch Bass now or later - as long as we lynch him today or on day 5. Posts like these, however, makes me get this over with and lynch Bass whether or not he is miller. No, this is just plain false. We are playing mafia, not maths. Lynching B is better because he is most likely to be scum while A is most likely to be miller.
Whattiwhatti? So basically you are saying people who are playing in a townie way(like Bass for example...) should be lynched because that's how mafia play? This doesn't make any sense at all. Also you say your not confident in scum hunting. Why do you say this? You are voting Bass really fast but yet you say this. Are you afraid that we will be comming after you when Bass flips miller?
No, we don't want to lynch Bass at all. It's quite clear to me that he is miller. If you don't agree with this, feel free to point out the scummy things in his filter that I seem to have missed.
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On July 12 2012 05:33 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 05:15 Hapahauli wrote:
To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass. I tried to answer your questions. Let me know what questions were unanswered or not satisfied with. I strongly recommend lynching Bass today. For reasons previously stated. I am willing to repeat these reasons and discuss them further upon requests. Yes, I request these reasons. And don't just say that he have 50% chance of flipping scum.
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On July 12 2012 05:56 YourHarry wrote:
I also need to repeat that we HAVE to lynch BASS. Either today or Day 5. If you disagree, please state your reasons.
There is literally 50% chance that Bass is scum. If there are outstanding evidence for Bass's townniess, let's even suppose that this chance can go down to 45%. But scum hunting is never this accurate. Not 45% if we have to choose one player out of four or five. No, this is just wrong which I have already stated. But you don't seem to care. Bass can be either miller or scum. A scum would play scummy and miller plays townie. Bass have been playing townie. Bass is miller. This is simple logic.
On July 12 2012 05:56 YourHarry wrote:Many of your thought that Zenman was the scum. There was so much "evidence" toward it. You all voted him. Guess what, he's a medic.
Many of you thought that Release was the scum. Again, there was a LOT of "evidence" that he was scum. I voted him. Most of us did. This is very scummy. You are trying to downplay the fact that we have misslynched Release and was about to misslynch Zen_Man. Will this be your argument when Bass flips miller aswell?
On July 12 2012 05:56 YourHarry wrote:I still believe scum hunting is useful. It is the one of the means which townies try to achieve victory. While scum hunting is the most common strategy and the only ability available to vanilla towns, but there are other ways to find scum. Stronger. More reliable. One mean include detective's power to check out a player's alignment.
It turns out that his power has been sort of compromised because he unluckily chose either scum or miller. But even with this reduction in power, his power is still considerably stronger. His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later.
I strongly prefer now, because I think this argument will be forgotten later in the day. This check was not useless. If someone would flip miller, we can just auto-lynch Bass. But that will not happend as Bass is miller.
It's funny, you are saying we shouldn't vote those being scummy because they are probebly town. Implying your own logic, we should never vote you because atm your appearing scummy as fuck. But since your logic sucks
##Vote YourHarry
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Btw, I'm not just voting because of him wanting to vote for Bass. I've read through his filter and also Hapa's case. His play on D1 just doesn't make any sense from town point of view and is directly anti town from scum point of view.
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Will be going to bed now. People, either get of this stupid bandwagon on Bass or at least say why you think he should be lynched. And no, there is not 50% chance that he flips scum. That's just some random bullshit YourHarry came up with. Read both Harry and Bass filter. Do it!
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On July 12 2012 06:26 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +This is very scummy. You are trying to downplay the fact that we have misslynched Release and was about to misslynch Zen_Man. Will this be your argument when Bass flips miller aswell?
He clearly states what happened, how can that be downplaying it? Show nested quote +This check was not useless. If someone would flip miller, we can just auto-lynch Bass. But that will not happend as Bass is miller.
What if the miller flips too late? Keep in mind Jingle said the same about Hopeless. Hapa was very convinced Jingle was Mafia. We all said the same about Release (As YourHarry pointed out). He never said it was useless, he said that because there is a miller the validity of investigation has been compromised; As in it might not be entirely true. All you said in that post was plain bullshit. Anyway. I don't side with Harry, nor do I side with Bass. I believe that keeping BassInSpace alive is not crucial for town victory. What you do need is town-aligned information and viewpoints. Now, if BassInSpace makes his cases; "Who would he lynch first? Next? etc", you still have his viewpoints. If we then lynch him we either get a Mafia and win the game or get a valid source of information there is no need to distrust. No, he is implying that since we were both wrong about Zen and Release, regular scum hunting is bad. Note also that he did in fact IGNORE that we managed to lynch Hope based on regular scum hunting. So basically we have had 50% success with regular scum hunting. 50% chance of success, where have I heard that before...hmmm?
He said in his post that if we don't lynch into Bass at all, we have wasted one check which is false. Yes, if we don't get the miller, this check will be useless(assuming we don't lynch bass and he flips scum...). Untill then, the check is not useless. He did in fact even say this:
His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later.
it's quite clear what he is implying.
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On July 12 2012 06:33 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +People, either get of this stupid bandwagon on Bass or at least say why you think he should be lynched I already did. Have you stopped reading? I clearly stated it. What I also clearly stated was why I think your post targeting YourHarry was bullshit, which you seem to have completely ignored. This was not only a response to you, but rather everyone who just dropped in, put a vote on Bass, and then continued to lurk. Why would I say people if it was only directed to you?
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On July 12 2012 07:20 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 05:47 Lazermonkey wrote:On July 12 2012 05:28 YourHarry wrote:On July 12 2012 04:11 Lazermonkey wrote:
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:
We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.
To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.
What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''. Come on. In your scenario, detective has no power because whoever he checked out, he would have received "guilty". Lynching either A or B would have equal probability of being scum, exactly 50%, regardless of detective's night report. Funny thing about scum hunting is that a player who acts scummy are often town and vice versa. In average, we hope that identifying scummy motivations in players' posts would allow us to choose players who are more likely to be scums. But there is a limit. In all my experience of playing scum, so many times I have been wrong lynching a player who I thought was scummiest. I continue to try to improve my scum hunting skills, but I am not confident that I will be able to identify scum 50% of the times in our current scenario. Regardless, as Hapha and I have previously discussed, it does not matter whether we lynch Bass now or later - as long as we lynch him today or on day 5. Posts like these, however, makes me get this over with and lynch Bass whether or not he is miller. No, this is just plain false. We are playing mafia, not maths. Lynching B is better because he is most likely to be scum while A is most likely to be miller. Whattiwhatti? So basically you are saying people who are playing in a townie way(like Bass for example...) should be lynched because that's how mafia play? This doesn't make any sense at all. Also you say your not confident in scum hunting. Why do you say this? You are voting Bass really fast but yet you say this. Are you afraid that we will be comming after you when Bass flips miller? No, we don't want to lynch Bass at all. It's quite clear to me that he is miller. If you don't agree with this, feel free to point out the scummy things in his filter that I seem to have missed. What exactly is false about it? We are playing mafia, you are correct. Math can apply to everywhere. Including mafia. We don't HAVE to use what we know about math, but if applying what we know about math can help us win, then we should. I am not saying that people who act townie should be lynched. I said there is a limit to how much scum hunting can help us. Yes, I voted Bass because he was checked out "red". I was not voting Bass because my scum hunting told me that I think Bass is mafia. If I was afraid that you guys will come after me when Bass flips miller, then I would have voiced my opinion that we should ignore what the detective has told us and continue scum hunting as if we didn't know that information. How is it quite clear that he is a miller. Was it clear to you that ZenMan was a scum until he confessed medic? Was it clear to you that Release was scum? Like I said. Saying that Bass have 50% chance of flipping scum is retarded in so many ways. Math is good but what you are doing here is not maths. And you even came to the conclusion(with maths)that we can lynch him later if we want to. Why are you pushing him today?
The second paragraph is just... -.-
No it doesn't work like that.
Once again your downplaying the fact that we misslynched. Zen_Man even confessed that he have been playing lazy becuase he thought the game would be over no matter what. Also you are ignoring that we got Hope on D1 by scum hunting.
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On July 12 2012 20:18 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +No, he is implying that since we were both wrong about Zen and Release, regular scum hunting is bad. Note also that he did in fact IGNORE that we managed to lynch Hope based on regular scum hunting. So basically we have had 50% success with regular scum hunting. 50% chance of success, where have I heard that before...hmmm?
So you are saying he downplayed that the lynch on Hopeless was successful. Really, I think your post was just a huge misunderstanding on the word "downplay". He is saying that we should rely on a 50% chance (which isn't even correct, but let's ignore that for now)rather then regular scum hunting becuase we have been wrong about Release and Zen. This is while we have actually had 50% correct lynches based on regular scum hunting.
On July 12 2012 20:18 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +He said in his post that if we don't lynch into Bass at all, we have wasted one check which is false. Yes, if we don't get the miller, this check will be useless(assuming we don't lynch bass and he flips scum...). Untill then, the check is not useless. He did in fact even say this: No, he says that since BassInSpace has turned guilty we will need to be lynched sooner or later. He never said if we don't lynch him it will be useless. He says that because he turned out guilty BassInSpace should sooner or later be lynched Yes he did...
His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later.
On July 12 2012 20:18 Evulrabbitz wrote:If this is implying that so far we've had at 50% success with regular scum hunting, you are mistaken. If it does not; Please clarify. We have used regular scum hunting to declare Hopeless, Zen_Man and Release scum. Now Zen_man claimed medic. If he didn't have a blue role he would be dead now, we all know that. so 1/3 have been mafia. that is ~33% success rate. You could even argue that Jingle would be dead or still pressured had I not investigated him (this is however nothing substantial and I won't use it against anyone). Your last posts has made no sense to me at all. If you are basing your suspicion on other's arguments against YourHarry, so be it, but right now you aren't making any sense. Zen wasn't lynched. It's stupid to say that Release would've been dead if Zen would have flipped green. Becuase this isn't true.
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On July 12 2012 21:06 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later. As I understand it, he feels it will go to a waste since you and Hapa does not recognize it. You are both saying it more or less doesn't matter. No we didn't. We do recognize it and draws the conclusion that Bass is probebly miller. It does matter as if someone would flip miller at this point, Bass must be scum.
On July 12 2012 21:06 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +Zen wasn't lynched. It's stupid to say that Release would've been dead if Zen would have flipped green. Becuase this isn't true.
Why is that stupid? There was two major cases, one against Release and one again Zen_Man. Zen_Man was cleared because he claimed blue. The case against Release wouldn't have dropped if Zen was killed and flipped townie. Yes, but you are assuming that Release would've been auto-lynched in case if Zen_Man would've flipped green.
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On July 12 2012 22:08 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +Yes, but you are assuming that Release would've been auto-lynched in case if Zen_Man would've flipped green.
Since we had enough information to lynch him already I feel like he wouldn't have lived long should Zen have flipped townie. Especially since the case against Release wasn't born because Zen was innocent. They were two parallel cases and the only reason we picked Zen was because he didn't post a defense, while Release did. You seem to be building your point (that we've had 50% success rate) on the fact that you do not believe Release would've been lynched since the lynch on him was a follow-up case from Zen being innocent. This is just my take on what would transpire, however; Just as this makes no real defense for YourHarry, I don't think your points make no real offense against YourHarry. What I am trying to argue is that the points you brought up on YouHarry are invalid and should not be used against him. That is correct. My point to begin with was how stupid it was for YourHarry to completly dissmiss scum hunting in favour of flipping a coin with 50% chance of success. I don't even agree with it having 50 % chance of success but it was just a way for me to prove my point that YourHarry's logic is very flawed, even ignoring the fact that the chance for Bass to flip scum at this point is way bellow 50%.
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On July 12 2012 21:47 The_Zen_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 08:27 Hapahauli wrote:On July 12 2012 08:20 YourHarry wrote:
Lazer and hapha. Why would I want to kill Bass now, if I am scum. I ask you this again. There is no reason. Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people. Derp Derp, you cant know how scum plays, derp derp. (impersenation of monkey, aka lazermonkey) This is not the same thing at all. Harry claimed that there wasn't a situation where scum would play like he did as an argument for him being town. Hapa proved him wrong.
O, and btw, can you please stop being 100% useless?
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Yes, this is true if you ignore the 45 pages of discussion...
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Either he is the miller or he is not. 50% chance would only apply in game where there were no reads at all. Luckily, this is not the case. Let's do this really simple.
Fact 1: Bass is playing in a townie way.
Fact 2: Bass is either scum or miller.
What is the logical conclusion of these facts?
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Btw, that post was to Zen!
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On July 13 2012 00:33 The_Zen_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 23:26 Lazermonkey wrote:
Either he is the miller or he is not. 50% chance would only apply in game where there were no reads at all. Luckily, this is not the case. Let's do this really simple.
Fact 1: Bass is playing in a townie way.
Fact 2: Bass is either scum or miller.
What is the logical conclusion of these facts? First of all, you were the one that said that you cant know how mafia plays, therefore you cant know how town plays either. And you still dont seems to understand that the percentages do not change, they are still 50/50. I'm not even sure it's worth arguing with you. I said that because your suspicion on Mackin were largly based on an assumption on how mafia plays which is just WIFOM. Scum will play anti-town. There are however 100 ways of doing that. Town will play in a townie way, but there are once again several ways of doing that. But I don't see how pushing the lynch against a scum on D1 in a newbie game when the second scum is about to get modkilled is anti-town.
As for percentages, you are just stupid. What you say here is that all mafia is about is RNG and that you can't read into anything. Why did you even vote Release D2 then? Was it just a coincidence that you RNGed the same person that almost everyone else voted? Because implying your logic, Hapa would have the same chance of flipping scum as Release had.
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EPT
