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Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 20:51 GMT
#659
While I agree with that Release looks bad, Hope's meta case on him is just shit. It's massivly dependant on the fact that Release have the abilty to be active the same amount of time in all of his games. While it may be true that he is lying about being bussy, this is just WIFOM and can't possibly be used as an argument against him. I don't claim to understand Release but I played XVI where we both were town. His play soso. The good part of it was his activity level but his reads were kinda off. He were tunneling alot and didn't really look at motives nor did he swap his target too often. He got alot of critique on that so it just makes sense that he would be trying to change his play this game.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 20:52 GMT
#660
On July 09 2012 05:32 Release wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2012 05:23 Lazermonkey wrote:
The only thing that makes me think that Hapa just MIGHT be scum is that they havn't conceded yet, which they probebly would have if they were among Zen/Release/Mackin. But everything else points towards him being scum, Release. Do you really think that a player who not only pushed a player that would hypothetically be his scum bro and even got him lynched and did this when his other bro was in serious danger of getting modkilled?

Release, do you not think it's more likely that the last scum is Zen_Man? Or prehaps Mackin?

i don't see why not. It would be a marvelous mind-fuck. I mean the case against hope1 was just so easy for him. Just there, boom, refutes everything. Hope1 goes silent. GG to hope. Hope probably wanted to continue his XIX anyways.
There is always a possiblity, but do you really find this option MORE likely than that one of Zen/Mackin is scum?
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 21:08 GMT
#664
Hmm, well your argument is kinda based on the fact that Hapa is ''too town to be town''. Also, this is Hapa's first game. I have a hard time beliving that Hapa in is first game agreed to buss Hope(who may not be playing his first game but at least one of his first games).
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 21:28 GMT
#669
On July 09 2012 06:17 Mackin wrote:
Who are we suspecting at the minute then?

Is it me, release, hapa and most likely Xen?
I want to kill either Zen or Release atm. Preferably Zen. I'm okay with lynching you if we can't lynch neither Zen or Release. I'm certainly not lynching Hapa. Not today.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 21:57 GMT
#675
On July 09 2012 06:26 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2012 05:51 Lazermonkey wrote:
While I agree with that Release looks bad, Hope's meta case on him is just shit. It's massivly dependant on the fact that Release have the abilty to be active the same amount of time in all of his games. While it may be true that he is lying about being bussy, this is just WIFOM and can't possibly be used as an argument against him. I don't claim to understand Release but I played XVI where we both were town. His play soso. The good part of it was his activity level but his reads were kinda off. He were tunneling alot and didn't really look at motives nor did he swap his target too often. He got alot of critique on that so it just makes sense that he would be trying to change his play this game.


I'm going to assume you meant my case against Release, and I appreciate the comments.

The majority of my case isn't based around Release's activity - its based on his posting style. Several of his posts on day one are massively out of character with his townie persona. Release in his other three games is never unsure of himself, never wishy-washy, and will never passively fingerpoint people. I'm sure he didn't receive any advice to start doing this, yet look at some of these posts:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066&currentpage=13#248
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066&currentpage=19#368
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066&currentpage=21#409

Townie Release NEVER posts ANYTHING in his townie meta similar to the 3 posts above

He is fickle about his opinions, sounds passive, and fingerpoints multiple people within individual posts. Not only is it out of character with Release's town meta - its out-of character in a mafia-oriented way. My case on Hopeless was built on the exact same meta argument - Hopeless was being different from his town meta (being passive/diplomatic/fingerpointing) with mafia motives.

I'll give some more detailed comments on your case about Zen tonight, but from what I've seen so far, Zen has been far too quiet for me to make a solid judgement.
I am not arguing that he is playing diffrent from his last game, I'm arguing it's bad to use meta as a form of analyse, especially in newbie games where people havn't found their preferable style yet. His town play in those games were far from perfect in it's perfectly understandable that he is trying to change his play style.

Just because you got Hope lynched doesn't mean meta is good way for deciding who is scum. Also your case on Hope was not purely built on meta but also usual scum hunting. This is why people voted for him, he was being anti-town. I like the case on Release not because of meta but becuase he is acting in an anti town way.

My case on Zen is not built fact that he is lurking but rather his insanly scummy voting patterns.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 22:39 GMT
#684
On July 09 2012 07:29 JingleHell wrote:Of course, it's also possible Zen is actually the DT, and Evulrabbitz is scum, but Zen knows that in the current circumstances a counterclaim would be a waste of time.
Waitwut!? You understand that Evul must be the DT, right?
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 22:47 GMT
#689
On July 09 2012 07:45 Evulrabbitz wrote:
If we just look at how my actions have affected the game I think we can conclude I am not scum:

Made the final call to kill Hopeless. Saved the whole of day2 from a crusade against Jingle(and possible lynch).
No, your actions does not matter at all. The fact that we know there is one DT and one DT only does. If someone counterclaims at this point, we will just lynch both of you=win.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 22:51 GMT
#692
On July 09 2012 07:46 JingleHell wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2012 07:39 Lazermonkey wrote:
On July 09 2012 07:29 JingleHell wrote:Of course, it's also possible Zen is actually the DT, and Evulrabbitz is scum, but Zen knows that in the current circumstances a counterclaim would be a waste of time.
Waitwut!? You understand that Evul must be the DT, right?


No, I understand that it's incredibly likely he's the DT.

Or were you suggesting that it's absolutely impossible for people to lie? Just because under the circumstances it seems improbable that he's not the DT doesn't mean he must be the DT. Of course, you're so focused on being smarter than everyone else that you're not willing to think outside the box.

Why didn't you quote the part where I mentioned that I was talking about WIFOM to the point of absurdity? Because you were too busy wanting to try and beat me over the head with your ego? Pretty much.
Yes, I'm making the assumption that Evul is not the most retarded person on earth. Him fake claiming at this point would mean that the only way for him to win is if the real DT doesn't counter claim. Why wouldn't the real DT counter claim in this spot? I'm not claiming to be smart, you however are simply dumb. You are a confirmed townie but that doesn't make your reads correct.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 23:01 GMT
#696
On July 09 2012 07:53 JingleHell wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2012 07:51 Lazermonkey wrote:
On July 09 2012 07:46 JingleHell wrote:
On July 09 2012 07:39 Lazermonkey wrote:
On July 09 2012 07:29 JingleHell wrote:Of course, it's also possible Zen is actually the DT, and Evulrabbitz is scum, but Zen knows that in the current circumstances a counterclaim would be a waste of time.
Waitwut!? You understand that Evul must be the DT, right?


No, I understand that it's incredibly likely he's the DT.

Or were you suggesting that it's absolutely impossible for people to lie? Just because under the circumstances it seems improbable that he's not the DT doesn't mean he must be the DT. Of course, you're so focused on being smarter than everyone else that you're not willing to think outside the box.

Why didn't you quote the part where I mentioned that I was talking about WIFOM to the point of absurdity? Because you were too busy wanting to try and beat me over the head with your ego? Pretty much.
Yes, I'm making the assumption that Evul is not the most retarded person on earth. Him fake claiming at this point would mean that the only way for him to win is if the real DT doesn't counter claim. Why wouldn't the real DT counter claim in this spot? I'm not claiming to be smart, you however are simply dumb. You are a confirmed townie but that doesn't make your reads correct.


No, you're so fucking busy trying to be king shit that you can't understand the purpose of the post, and the reason I went with something absurd.

I'm guessing you've still got your panties in a bunch over me dismissing your long-winded first post and actually succeeding at starting the conversation with sex toys.
What was the purpose of this post, I don't get it. It's like saying''Well, uhm, what if Radfield is actually lying about the setup and there is actually a serial killer among us. I'm just thinking outside the box'' and then think that you've contributed when you have in fact done the opposite with clogging the thread up with useless shit.

You have done nothing to help town, and I'm going to ignore you for the most part from now on.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 23:03 GMT
#697
On July 09 2012 07:53 Evulrabbitz wrote:
When is the end of the day? In 2 hours?
1 day and 2 hours, no?
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 08 2012 23:11 GMT
#699
On July 09 2012 08:04 Evulrabbitz wrote:
I don't think I want to reveal my intentions for the nightly investigations just yet
You shouldn't. This way scum will not know who to kill. wait untill 1 minute before deadline.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 09 2012 11:25 GMT
#717
The_Zen_Man: Start posting now or I will end you. There isn't any reason for you to be silent any more. Defend yourself or concede...

##Vote The_Zen_Man
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 09 2012 20:26 GMT
#750
I have so much to say about your play, Zen_Man. But it's post game material.

##unvote
##Vote Release
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 09 2012 22:53 GMT
#759
I'd say Tracker and DT should NOT claim. The only advantage we would get by saying who to investigate is to avoid checking the same person. But I fail to see a scenario where both of them will get info anyways(at least one of them should get RBed/killed).
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 09 2012 23:03 GMT
#761
On July 10 2012 07:53 Lazermonkey wrote:
I'd say Tracker and DT should NOT claim. The only advantage we would get by saying who to investigate is to avoid checking the same person. But I fail to see a scenario where both of them will get info anyways(at least one of them should get RBed/killed).
EBWOP: Lol, what I meant was that they should not say who they are about to investigate...
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 10 2012 00:16 GMT
#781
On July 10 2012 08:35 YourHarry wrote:The advantage is publicizing who they are investigating simply lies in the fact that it will prevent DT and tracker to target the miller at the same time. It is possible that miller is already dead or will die tonight. But otherwise, we want to make sure that he won't be targeted by both DT and tracker. As long as we ensure this, and if scum picks the wrong combination of RB/NK target, then our victory is guaranteed.
How does publicizing who you are going to check prevent us from not getting the miller? Scums will AT LEAST kill/RB one of Jiexian and Evul. Probebly both. So we will most likely not get more than one read anyway.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 10 2012 03:21 GMT
#796
On July 10 2012 11:49 YourHarry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 10 2012 09:16 Lazermonkey wrote:
On July 10 2012 08:35 YourHarry wrote:The advantage is publicizing who they are investigating simply lies in the fact that it will prevent DT and tracker to target the miller at the same time. It is possible that miller is already dead or will die tonight. But otherwise, we want to make sure that he won't be targeted by both DT and tracker. As long as we ensure this, and if scum picks the wrong combination of RB/NK target, then our victory is guaranteed.
How does publicizing who you are going to check prevent us from not getting the miller? Scums will AT LEAST kill/RB one of Jiexian and Evul. Probebly both. So we will most likely not get more than one read anyway.


We either get two reads, or 0 read.

If we get two reads, we win; unless both reads pointed to the same player who turned out to be the miller.
What is this for kind of logic? Say scum shots tracker and RB DT, but his shot gets healed by medic, that means one read. Also what is this scenario where we get two reads? Most likely we will get either we get one or we get zero.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 10 2012 13:54 GMT
#812
Sorry guys, but I'm kinda bussy/lazy atm. However, as everyone who isn't blue have basically been given a freepass to D4. I will post alot of shit from tomorrow night and foreward tho.

As for Evul and Jiexian. In case you guys didn't get it, pick a name from here:
Me
Hapa
Mackin
Bass
Harry
And investigate him. Do not tell who you've investigate untill the day tho.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 10 2012 13:58 GMT
#813
EBWOP: That should read: However, as everyone who isn't blue have basically been given a freepass to D4, it doesn't really matter too much anyways.
Lazermonkey
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden2176 Posts
July 11 2012 19:11 GMT
#885
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:

We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.

To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.

What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''.
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