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SSB-64 Mafia - Page 54

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 08 2012 03:03 GMT
#1061
It was clear to me, and should have been clear to anyone paying attention to night 1 results, that if cephiro was scum then dedede was scum as well. How else would you explain the divine providence of cephiro being protected from a vig AND the "bounced" mafia KP onto a townie. It was a brilliant bold move from dedede and cephiro and it's something I would do as scum, which is why I harped on it a bit before giving up since no one else seemed to think either could possibly be scum. This is why I wanted the grush lynch so desperately. Grush town was a legit nail in the coffin for cephiro/dedede b/c it required divine amounts of luck for a ms/hrb/tali scum team to exist. I'm still waiting on an answer as to why grush wasn't lynched following the igrok/risen suicide pact.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
July 08 2012 03:06 GMT
#1062
oh that's easy + Show Spoiler +
he was town
ATOBTTR
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 08 2012 03:07 GMT
#1063
On July 08 2012 12:06 s0Lstice wrote:
oh that's easy + Show Spoiler +
he was town


A town lynch that pretty much confirmed cephiro/dedede team as scum. What was grush doing for anyone this game? His lynch provides SO MUCH information considering how little he contributed.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
July 08 2012 03:11 GMT
#1064
The people who needed to know grush was town already did. There was no need to kill him. He had a vig shot left to boot.

Tali's flip was the one we needed to see. The problem is his flip meant gg.
ATOBTTR
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 08 2012 03:24 GMT
#1065
On July 08 2012 12:11 s0Lstice wrote:
The people who needed to know grush was town already did. There was no need to kill him. He had a vig shot left to boot.

Tali's flip was the one we needed to see. The problem is his flip meant gg.


Wrong, because grush only had .5kp and tali still had 3. You had to go all in on tali being scum when you lynched him. With a grush lynch flipping town you still had options.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
July 08 2012 03:43 GMT
#1066
I just typed a bunch about how you are completely wrong, but that's not true. You are right in a way.

I can say that from my standpoint, actually seeing grush flip would not have stopped me from pushing for a Talis kill.

Cephiro could not have pushed grush late after he was dead obviously, so there is a strong chance he would have chosen to go after Talis instead. Since I read Ceph and Talis as scum, I probably would have thought it was a last-ditch bus.

Mr. S, I can't say for sure, but I think he still would have been on-board with Talis as well after a grush flip. They read Talis as scum all game.

The only person who would know who the scum team was via grush flip was Talis. I suppose there is a chance he could have convinced me, but I really doubt it. My mind was just so closed to dedede being scum, and I wasted the opportunity to engage him during N2.

All-in-all, I don't think it would have changed the outcome much. Still though, we may have had a slightly higher chance at winning with a dead grush.
ATOBTTR
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 08 2012 05:33 GMT
#1067
On July 08 2012 12:43 s0Lstice wrote:
I just typed a bunch about how you are completely wrong, but that's not true. You are right in a way.

I can say that from my standpoint, actually seeing grush flip would not have stopped me from pushing for a Talis kill.

Cephiro could not have pushed grush late after he was dead obviously, so there is a strong chance he would have chosen to go after Talis instead. Since I read Ceph and Talis as scum, I probably would have thought it was a last-ditch bus.

Mr. S, I can't say for sure, but I think he still would have been on-board with Talis as well after a grush flip. They read Talis as scum all game.

The only person who would know who the scum team was via grush flip was Talis. I suppose there is a chance he could have convinced me, but I really doubt it. My mind was just so closed to dedede being scum, and I wasted the opportunity to engage him during N2.

All-in-all, I don't think it would have changed the outcome much. Still though, we may have had a slightly higher chance at winning with a dead grush.


Hadn't considered that. You're probably right that regardless of grush flipping town tali was going to be the next to go especially since he would be the other lynch candidate for 2 days in a row at that point. I feel bad for turning the game into a Risen vs. Igrok fest for quite some time, I just couldn't believe he actually thought he had "solved" anything where there was SO much that could still be in the air. I also wasn't convinced by anything he said regarding his decision to carry ms. Add onto this my feelings that the only people who "know" anything in a game are scum and I became gradually more and more convinced removing him would benefit town b/c it was clear if he was a townie he was blind to reason (convinced he had solved the game = unable to talk to) and if he was scum he was just shitting up the thread with inane arguments. My mistake, sorry guys.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
July 08 2012 05:55 GMT
#1068
Everyone in town had their failings But it's kind of the same theme that most town losses have: when town wastes their time arguing with each other, they tend to lose.

Not rereading your filter after you died was really bad on my part. But day 2 I just got so sick and tired of the fight with iGrok. I wanted him dead even if it meant killing you, who (I was leaning town on).

And then after both of you flipped town, I realized I was at huge risk of being lynched myself and really had nothing left myself. So I reread the filters of everyone who was still in the game. I read dedede's filter twice, but there was just nothing I saw there, so I just decided to call them town and move on. I read the last posts for you and iGrok, but both of you wanted to lynch grush, and by that point I was pretty sure that grush was town (simply because he would not have revealed the shot if he was mafia). But I really didn't feel like going through the whole dispute again so I didn't read your complete filters ( I don't think I ever really closely read the parts of the game where you argued for a dedede/cephiro scum team until now).

I was so sure that talismania was scum, and I was leaning scum on Cephiro so when I saw HomerunBat's post on those two, that solidified the read for me and I decided to go with that as the scum team. It's not that I never considered dedede possibly being scum, but I never saw anything strong behavior-wise that tipped me off, so I just kept calling them town.

I think s0Lstice is right that even if we had lynched grush, with the people who were still alive, the next lynch would have been talismania (if we made it through the night).
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
July 08 2012 09:27 GMT
#1069
dedede played really well as scum, I really didnt think a scum yoshi would straight up claim like that and tell us all who you bussed. very smart play imo
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
July 08 2012 09:41 GMT
#1070
on another note i really dont like playing with townies like grush who just dont give a fuck. It makes it impossible to tell if they're town or scum which really hurts town.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 08 2012 14:09 GMT
#1071
the only way we actually would have won is if we no-lynched.

if we lynched grush it would have been 3v2 and they could have used their 2.5 kp on mister saturn.
grush57
Profile Joined March 2011
Korea (South)2582 Posts
July 08 2012 14:28 GMT
#1072
GG
Ty for hosting DOOOOOODS
"Every thing is either simply awful or awfully simple." | "Weaklings can't pick... their way of death."
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
July 08 2012 14:36 GMT
#1073
we would have lost even with a no-lynch. Mr. S' shot was basically scum kp because dedede was in full control of where it landed. They would have arranged it so that both Samus shots ended up on one person, and the scum 1kp NK would finish off grush.
ATOBTTR
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 08 2012 16:28 GMT
#1074
No mr s could have held their shot as could have grush. Regardless it would have been tough
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 08 2012 17:41 GMT
#1075
Thanks for hosting a great game, and thanks to everyone who took part, both players and obsers!

I really enjoyed the game, and I excuse for my lack of participation in the post-game talk, but I've been getting ready for my military service that starts tomorrow. :x
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17958 Posts
July 08 2012 22:14 GMT
#1076
Lol. I saw the daypost and was like "noooooo wtf! Why would Cephiro keep his KP on Tali after he posted he was DK'ing him?!!!"... and then I saw Grey's addendum.

GG everybody Gonna read the post-game analysis now, and post my own thoughts and comments!
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17958 Posts
July 08 2012 22:45 GMT
#1077
Okay. I guess you've seen the QT, so you already know our plan from the start. Anyway, a quick rehash:

I was fairly certain that at some point our role would be outed (either by a mass claim plan, a lynch, or because night actions didn't add up and someone suspected shenanigans). Artanis and I decided that the best way to deal with that was to preempt it. If we hadn't claimed, the second our role was outed we'd take a TON of suspicion for having one of the most unpredictable roles that can be used for great evil. We also slightly misunderstood the role, but that didn't really change much: we wanted to claim we'd use it as a medic role and then either "waste it" if it was unnecessary, or use it in devious ways.

That explains the roleclaim. We also realized that town actually had more (in fact, a LOT more) KP available than scum, especially on D1. So part 2 of the plan was to play suboptimally insofar as pushing lynches, etc. goes, just so that we looked like town. I thought a town-me would've backed off Tali after that post of his, so we backed off. The hardest thing to do was deal with Risen's accusations convincingly, but I really feel he shot himself in the foot by raging at iGrok and accusing almost everybody (in addition to his very accurate figuring out of Cephiro and me).

Finally, the plan to shoot Cephiro was quite obvious, really. I needed to use my bussing power convincingly and we didn't really care what townie took damage, as long as some townie got the receiving end of our KP. We happened to get really lucky that Risen was a DK and Grush also shot Cephiro. That worked out so amazingly well (if there had been a jigglypuff we might've been screwed and we knew it, but it was worth the shot anyway). The "town credit" was absolutely necessary to pull this off properly as well, and as it happened, only Risen saw through the ploy until it was far too late to do anything about it (although when I was reading through the last day I was afraid for a no-lynch, which would've made life a bit harder).

Anyway, YAY scumteam and GG by everybody.

@Toad: I said it in the QT and I will say it here again. Speculating about someone being scum because he has KP is not fun and should not be part of the game. I really think that in this kind of setup the host should say he randomized the alignments even if it's a blatant lie. I also agree that pressuring people to post their hydra QT/skypes should not be allowed, as it makes it virtually impossible to ever make hydras scum again. This as opposed to masons: if scum fake claim mason they better have the PMs to back that claim up!
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
July 08 2012 22:49 GMT
#1078
Was there an obs QT for this game?
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-07-08 22:53:18
July 08 2012 22:52 GMT
#1079
On July 09 2012 07:45 Acrofales wrote:
[...]

@Toad: I said it in the QT and I will say it here again. Speculating about someone being scum because he has KP is not fun and should not be part of the game. I really think that in this kind of setup the host should say he randomized the alignments even if it's a blatant lie. I also agree that pressuring people to post their hydra QT/skypes should not be allowed, as it makes it virtually impossible to ever make hydras scum again. This as opposed to masons: if scum fake claim mason they better have the PMs to back that claim up!

Well the point is that iGrok was in the game, he could have answered the question as well and at least he knew about it and could have told people anyways so I tried to make it sound as broad as it possibly could get and as mentioned I came up with different set-ups that I ended up rng-ing. I think actually should have said that lol.
Edit: I think I should come up with some "classification" to come up with some way to truely randomize it under certain assumptions so that it makes sense.. Or just hit "random" until something comes out that makes sense :p

About the posting hydra stuff: Yeah I agree, that was a bad call I did and won't allow that again.

Obs-QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/pZcpVGtF8ShTx
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17958 Posts
July 09 2012 12:23 GMT
#1080
I guess a minor amount of setup speculation is inevitable. It is a themed game after all and even in normal games, if a townie is found to be a straight-up roleblocker, or a rolecop outs someone as a framer, he'll be lynched and that's the end of it. Finding some way to keep the amount of information gained by setup (or finding some way for fake claims to be less easily recognized as fake) would be great.

Anyway, thanks alot for hosting. Was a fun, and very different game.
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