EPTI think it's really unlikely dedede is scum.
SSB-64 Mafia - Page 44
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I think it's really unlikely dedede is scum. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
iGrok said something about scum being unlikely to make a spreadsheet like that because then they can't contradict their reads. I think this is wrong; look at what talismania actually did himself on the spreadsheet: he listed me as a scum read and then said that everyone else is leaning town, that's complete trash. It's awfully easy to not contradict yourself when all you do is say yea I think this person is scum but I can't figure out anyone else who might be on his scum team and everyone else looks town to me. I think the meta argument has been brought up enough times, but the simple truth of the matter is, talismania is a good town player, but he's put in no effort into actually scumhunting this game. I'm not really sure what grush is, but I am almost certain that talismania is scum. ##Unvote ##Vote talismania | ||
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Mister Saturn
Vatican City State155 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I don't know where s&b is, but I think he would agree with me. We've had talismania as a strong scum read for most of this game. I think HomerunBat is mostly right on talismania; talismania has not been scumhunting very much and the majority of his time has been spent on doing useless things like speculating about the roles when no flips were actually made or making spreadsheets. iGrok said something about scum being unlikely to make a spreadsheet like that because then they can't contradict their reads. I think this is wrong; look at what talismania actually did himself on the spreadsheet: he listed me as a scum read and then said that everyone else is leaning town, that's complete trash. It's awfully easy to not contradict yourself when all you do is say yea I think this person is scum but I can't figure out anyone else who might be on his scum team and everyone else looks town to me. I think the meta argument has been brought up enough times, but the simple truth of the matter is, talismania is a good town player, but he's put in no effort into actually scumhunting this game. I'm not really sure what grush is, but I am almost certain that talismania is scum. ##Unvote ##Vote talismania | ||
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grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: talismania | ||
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Mister Saturn
Vatican City State155 Posts
How do I know this? Look at the spreadsheet link. talismania hasn't even bothered to update it with his read on grush, even though he spent so much time saying how amazing it was. - Hiro | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I think acro is out of town now. Artanis are you there? | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
sorry i havent been able to post in the qt my advisor is here so it was impossible to get time at lunch | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
NO IDEA WHAT THE VOTECOUNT IS RIGHT NOW, I'M EATING BUT WILL GET TO IT SOON :p | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
3 FOR talismania (grush57, HomerunBat, Mister Saturn) 3 FOR grush57 (talismania, kingdedede, Cephiro) WITH 6 PLAYERS ALIVE IT TAKES 4 VOTES TO LYNCH SOMEONE. YOU HAVE TIME UNTIL 22:30 GMT (+00:00) TO PLACE YOUR VOTES If there are mistakes above please tell me, I did this really quick :3 | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 07 2012 00:18 HomerunBat wrote: He is 100% correct. I think this is the scum team: Cephiro & Talismania Let's start with Cephiro. He is a town read to a lot of people. Why? He shit up the thread right off the bat arguing with Risen, and then tunneled him for the rest of the game. He buddied up to iGrok. These posts rang alarm bells for me the first time I read through them: + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 05:49 Cephiro wrote: Back. I'm not exactly fond of Homerunbat's play, as he seems to be trying to avoid pissing anyone off. Or that's how it looks like to me. Of course one can just be very polite by nature, but the way he words what he says doesn't sound very natural to me. He keeps up a discussion with Saturn, where he originally has Saturn as one of his scumreads. Afterward he agrees on lynching talismania fairly easily, but based on what? The larger post of him earlier doesn't cover enough reasoning to do that imo. His other choice I can't criticize because I admit that I wouldn't mind seeing our useless lurker lose some stock if that's the only way to get him talking. Rank: 6 Risen needs to die, seriously. He was bashing on iGrok's plan without proper reasoning (he accused iGrok's plan of being bad due to losing town stock, and about lack of information, but his own plan was worse in BOTH areas.) And what are his scumreads? The people who agreed with iGrok or defended him. Brilliant play if I say so myself. The way he jumps at Homerunbat after he defends iGrok's play makes me cry. He also clearly buddies with Saturn and tries to control his actions (and even succeeds to get Saturn to vote for the bat.) Rank: 8 ##Vote: Risen Grush is useless. Literally. He comes in, keeps changing his votes constantly and doesn't contribute at all. I just can't see a townie do this, and if he somehow is town, he needs to be waken up. A prime target for night actions that cause stock loss, or a lynch if you won't lynch Risen today. Rank: 7 talismania, you need to stop trying to crunch the setup and base your play on your meta-game against the host, you need to start playing the game the way it's supposed to be played and deciding your reads based on the actions of others. If you're not going to step up your play asap, I will push you for lynch. Rank: 4 My thoughts on dedede+Saturn to follow. I don't believe that I need to add more about my opinion on iGrok (Rank: 2), he's my strongest townread but he has to stop the retarded derping around. So please, concentrate and prove me I'm not wrong about you. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:39 Cephiro wrote: Mister Saturn: I was okay with his earlygame play, but since then he's gone all wishy-washy and saying he doesn't trust himself at all. He could be honest about it, or he could be scum looking for an easy way to vote for anyone. I don't care if you're unsure about yourself, I want you to do decisions based on your own opinion, not sheep others. Even the best players are wrong sometimes, and I don't want us to lose if you'll happen to sheep a townie that was wrong, or even worse, a scum dragging you by the ropes. The way you talk about "no-one cares about my opinion so I won't push for it anymore, but I have a gun and I'm not afraid to use it", isn't giving you any points in my book either. I want to hear YOUR opinions. Even if you aren't sure who is scum (which few are at this stage of the game), your opinions can still be valuable for others. So pick it up. And think before you act! Rank: 5 Kingdedede: The roleclaim at start seems quite honest to me, with the valid reasoning he gave. I am very interested in seeing how he is going to use it, given that he needs to keep his action secret from scum and only reveal his reasoning in the morning. I'm expecting his N1 action to tell a lot. What I don't like is that he is pushing for a mass claim. Certain roles claiming may be useful yes, but everyone claiming is better for scum than town imo. I like his provided reasoning for why he thinks iGrok is town, and I pretty much agree with it. I also like that he pointed out a minor contradiction in iGrok's play. (iGrok was against a mass claim, but wanted to lynch for role info earlier.) I'm slightly confused why he is pushing for talis lynch so hard without more/better reasoning though. Currently leaning slightly town, but I'm expecting to hear more from him soon, and very much looking forward to what he decides to do N1. Rank: 3 The ranks are just strange. He uses a lot of words to point out tiny things he doesn't like about each person. Risen is the only person he really goes after hard...but he really doesn't describe anything scummy about him. All his accusations look to me like he is accusing Risen of bad play, not being scum. This is really the extent of his scum hunting, outside of tunneling Risen like a boss. I really don't get the sense he is going after the town win-condition. Let's look at the reasoning using his ranks. The highest numbers should lose stock first, continuing on down to the lower numbers. He has Risen first, and as I already explained, his accusations are pretty bad. Following Risen he has grush, a lurker. Following that he has me, because I am polite and I decided I would lynch talismania. Read those three paragraphs, his three top reads, and take note of how phony sounding the accusations are. Now let's go to the reason why he has been basically auto-towned...the NK. This is important. There are perfectly logical reasons for scum Cephiro to aim the NK at himself. Dedede read him as town, so Cephiro knew that as a townie looking Samus, there was a good chance that dedede would choose to protect him via bus. Even if he didn't, the NK only removes one stock, which would absolutely be worth the massive town cred it got him. This does not add or subtract to the case against him. The important thing here is that the NK aimed at Cephiro is a null point. There are logical, valid reasons for it be he town or scum. Without that NK stuff, there is just his filter, and the filter looks pretty bad imo. First off, I was certainly not shitting up the thread with the argument with Risen. I provided statistical facts and normal logic to show how his D1 accusations were false and flawed. As I've said several times, Risen's play was not pro-town at all in my opinion. Tell me how these are bad points:
Why are ranks strange? I gave you an exact order in how I have people pegged currently, as I want everyone to understand what I am thinking and why I'm thinking. If you find that somehow anti-town... should I keep everything to myself and come out with some tidbits every now and then, or just a huge post at once like iGrok did? Didn't seem like a much better idea considering how you wanted to kill him for it. About the NK, I didn't ask the scum to shoot me. If I am a threat to them, that means I've done something right. In a stock game like this, you can twist any night actions to look correct from any perspective you want. The thing is, you can't play based on what is the most twisted and sickest scum plan ever. Sure, it could be right, but how likely is that? I lynch scum based on the mistakes and contradictions they make, not on night-WIFOM. And finally, about "tunneling" Risen. Yes, it is true that pretty much since the start of the game I have had him pegged as scum. He has not at any point in the game given me a reason to change my mind. I always evaluate the situation again and again based on new information and actions. However, none of his actions as I've several times described were pro-town in my opinion. Am I scum for wanting to kill my biggest scumread? When I'm sure that someone is scum, I make sure they die. Giving them a chance to escape could cost you the game. So why on earth should I not try to get my biggest scumread killed? Yes, I was wrong about it. Can townies be wrong sometimes? Yes. Can I be wrong sometimes? Yes. If I'm wrong, does that make me scum? No. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
grush57 This man has posted nothing of use for town. He has a collection of 20-30 oneliner posts, which are random filler and votes. Mafia is not a game of pointing fingers and calling random people scum. Mafia is neither a game of sheeping others. Mafia is an elite mindgame where everyone's thoughts matter, and only with co-operation can town take the win. grush57 has not co-operated with anyone. He has not provided analysis. He hasn't provided reasoning for his scumreads. He hasn't provided reasoning for his vigshot. (OMG, U Scum! Doesn't count.) Some people say that because he revealed he didn't get his first pick, thus revealing two Samuses, he has to be Town. Why would scum do that? Go and take a look at all the setup metagaming it caused. Me and Saturn both got several accusations of being scum, just because of this one revelation. I know I'm town, and Saturn could be either. Yet this caused a lot of confusion and derailed the thread from the actual scumhunting to setup metagaming. And what does grush do? Nothing. He makes a vigilante shot without giving any reasoning. Why would a townie ever do that? What is even more concerning to me, he has been accused of being scum several times this game, but he hasn't bothered responding a single one of them, neither do anything pro-town. I ask you, why is this man alive? He really needs to die today. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
My guess is it's just grush + mister saturn and homerunbat has given them the opening they needed to either force a no-lynch or get me lynched. Either way it's great for them because they get to keep grush's KP. By the way - look at the timing of MisterSaturn and Grush's votes LOL 2:16 2:17 That shit is classic if they are scum. (Grush being scum with saturn could also explain some of hiropro's frustration as well. He was down 1 kp with a useless partner who voluntarily revealed saturn's role. He was even more depressed after the night actions after grush was stupid and shot the same guy they were using the night kp on.) So what happens during the night if it's saturn/grush? 1) I'm lynched. Then they have the option of using saturn's gun on me. But I don't think they would because they have to respect the fact that I claimed I ate Risen and they don't know who I'm carrying. That gives them 3.5 kp to work with elsewhere. Obviously they'd be looking at acrofales/artanis + cephiro to kill with it but would have to contend with the bus. Not game over in this situation but not exactly a smart way to play either. Actually no now that homerunbat has swung back towards me being scum they should have no problem wanting to get rid of him since they don't have to keep up the fraud that it might be me + homerunbat which they've hinted at before. 2) No lynch. Pretty much as above, but they would be even more tempted to shoot at me to get my kp down to a manageable level. But am I carrying saturn? Or grush? Tough for them to make that call if it would be a one for one trade that shoots them in the foot. No, they're better off leaving me alive and pushing for my lynch. 3) Grush lynched. Then saturn resigns because his ass is getting shot by cephiro and he has little chance to make it. _____________________ Other scenarios: What if Risen was right all along - it's cephiro + acro/artanis? Well, this makes little sense for a couple big reasons that should be stated: Acrofales backed off his scum read on me to a town read. Why on earth do you do that as scum? Far easier to piggyback hiropro's tunnel and get me lynched, with little skin of your back. Same goes for cephiro. Of course, it could just be really cunning play but let's assume simpler explanations prevail. But if this is the case, the game is almost lost. One of them will reluctantly agree to vote for me near the end of the voting period today, getting me lynched and putting me at 1.5 kp. Then hiro shoots me tonight, getting rid of a townie for them. Then they use their night kill to get rid of grush and can use their other 1.5 kp wherever they want. Either way they will be at 2 - 2 and have won the game after tonight. I'm most scared of this scenario but I also don't think it's that likely. By the way, What is the lylo in this game? Is it equal numbers? Or is it when town can't win based on kp and abilities and items? I would argue that making it at equal numbers is kind of silly because then two townies with 3 kp could lose to two scum at 0.5 kp that might be about to die to a tornado or something ___________________ Other combos: Mister Saturn + Homerunbat - eh I don't think so. Saturn quickly voted for him, homerunbat has "trapped" him before just doesn't seem like they are connected. Maybe but I don't think so. Cephiro + Mister Saturn - imba as fuck and we're all screwed lol. Homerunbat + grush - nope they don't switch from voting me to voting him in that case unless they're just playing random in which case I just shrug if they win. grush + acro/artanis - eh? no clue. grush + cephiro - nope grush doesn't shoot him in that case after they've already put their kp on cephiro. ______________________ Why I'm not scum: Why do I eat risen at night if I'm scum? I'd have eaten grush in that case for sure. I almost did that anyway as town. Instead I wanted to rolecop risen. Why do I even claim in the first place? Who the hell am I scum with? not anyone who voted for me day one because that would just be silly. Homerunbat? Nope he's voting for me now for no reason if we were scum together. I guess you have to assume that it's me + cephiro in that case like hrb said but I know if I were scum I would not attack my scumbuddy N1 even for towncred. Dunno who I would kill - HrB probably, maybe saturn for wifom or risen for wifom. So Cephiro at least knows that I'm not scum with him. Which means it comes down to acro to make sure that I don't get lynched and homerunbat to change their minds and avoid the no-lynch. | ||
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WereBugs-Go
Korea (South)172 Posts
On July 07 2012 04:36 talismania wrote: What is the lylo in this game? Is it equal numbers? Or is it when town can't win based on kp and abilities and items? I would argue that making it at equal numbers is kind of silly because then two townies with 3 kp could lose to two scum at 0.5 kp that might be about to die to a tornado or something IT IS EQUAL NUMBERS FROM THE OP: SSB 64 mafia - Role You are Role and you are a Mafia You win this game if you outnumber the town or have same numbers. | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 07 2012 04:54 HomerunBat wrote: cephiro, who is grush's partner? Stay tuned for the next episode of SSB-64 Mafia... In all seriousness, I'll give you a full case once I've finished re-reading filters. I'm a bit unsure at the moment. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On July 07 2012 04:50 WereBugs-Go wrote: IT IS EQUAL NUMBERS FROM THE OP: CRAP NOW I FAIL AT SMURFING AS WELL. THAT WAS ME  | ||
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kingdedede
Kazakhstan80 Posts
Hiro/Saturn, what do you think of Tali's recent post? | ||
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