EPTHaha, I apologize. I noticed it after I had already posted, but it seems a bit of a waste to double-post just to fix it. It was obvious who I was talking about
Newbie Mini Mafia XVIII - Page 3
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Haha, I apologize. I noticed it after I had already posted, but it seems a bit of a waste to double-post just to fix it. It was obvious who I was talking about | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 01 2012 09:30 JingleHell wrote: Keirathi, of course, was right in the thick of a lot of the hot points of that mess, and now he's trying to discuss policy when we're in a world of trouble numerically. Not sure if you realize it, but my policy discussion was *BECAUSE* of the numerical trouble we are in. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
So, you said you agree with much of what I have said. What specifically do you not agree with? And to the point of defending myself because Milton pointed a very, very fragile argument towards me: since we now know that Vivax *WAS* town, how was my staunch DEFEND THE DT stance anti-town at all, even if he wasn't DT in the end? I still fully stand by my actions; taking a chance on lynching the DT, no matter how small, is silly. And for more defense, lets assume that I am mafia for one moment. Why would I, BEFORE ANY DISCUSSION HAS TAKEN PLACE, lobby for a no-lynch policy for today? It's an extremely pro-town stance to take; a no-lynch doesn't benefit Mafia in any way whatsoever, and in every possible situation, its actually a bad thing for them. Higher odds that one of them gets lynched and all. Agreeing with the proposal after-the-fact is one thing; you can't really afford ti disagree with it if people in the town feel its the right decision, but to flat out propose it during the night before any discussion has taken place would be flat out idiotic. Not to mention, the call for last minute role-claims tonight hurts mafia too, because assuming everyone complies, they *WILL* be forced into lying. They will have to make up evidence to support there claims, and dismiss evidence of other people's claims. Much more liable to slip up when you have to lie. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
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On July 01 2012 10:00 JingleHell wrote: I'm not entirely against a no-lynch, in fact, I prefer it if it's the best option, I just feel we're really running far too late to take that sort of risk. It's entirely in what-if land, and assumes scum don't have any scum-vigi holding a shot. There is no mafia extra shot role. The only possibility for losing tonight if we no-lynch is if we have another town vigi and he shoots a townie. I would certainly hope that wouldn't happen though. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Like I said, its not that I don't agree with you, its just that no-lynching is our best solution, and until it happens, any information we disclose can give mafia ammunition to use during the next day. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 01 2012 12:45 JieXian wrote: If higher odds are so good why wouldn't a 3-3 be a better situation since it's 50%? Because it means you have no power in the voting. That' why 3-9 is better than 3-8. About roleclaiming, it sounds good. 3-3 is game over. Theres no possible way for town to win. I dunno if the rules specifically state that mafia has to OUTNUMBER the town to win, but since we're using priority voting, it works out to the same thing. On the day that its 3-3, the 3 mafia just agree to fast vote someone as soon as the day starts, and since their 3 votes happened first, they have priority. Even if the 3 town consensus to vote on one of the mafia, its too late. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Also I'm not really sure why the statement you bolded initiated a FoS. If you can tell me how lobbying for no-lynch is anti-town, then please do. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 01 2012 12:26 JieXian wrote: Let me point out some glaring flaws in your idealised assumption. Firstly, you're correct. But you were wrong in leaving out a few facts: You do know that at 7 players every single townie needs to be on the same page to win? Thats a really huge risk you left out from your analysis, just like your arguement for Vivax. You're presenting a situation while hiding some facts. ATM I have very little confidence that all townie can be on the same page. I wonder why you do. I guess I could have combined these all into 1 post, I apologize. Anyways, 4 townies have to be on the same page in either situation. It's basically one extra night of possible blue roles vs arguing today over who to lynch and then voting with lesser odds. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 01 2012 14:11 JieXian wrote: No no no >_> once again you seem to keep leaving out things. Yes, 4 townies need to be together in either situation. However today 80% need to be on the same page (with better timing) as opposed to 100% tomorrow. Your idealised situation is only optimal if you already have a 4 townie alliance. I'm arguing that this statement is not true. Mafia does have something to gain as I explained above, hence I question "extreme pro-townness". On the other hand, what would you expect from a roleclaim? (this isn't an attack) I'd assume mafia will claim VT and blues can be excluded from being targets. I don't get how you can "catch people lying". Sorry about this, but I think I'm going to sleep before I reply. I wrote up a long post, but it felt like I was just rambling without getting my point across and repeatedly losing my train of thought. I'll discuss more in the morning. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I just want to make this clear before I move on. The entire idea was because INFORMATION beats HUNCHES every time. If we do have a Cop, or a doc saves someone, or a Veteran gets shot, those are people WE CAN CLEAR. We CANNOT mislynch again. It is game over if we do. The odds are more favorable at 7 people than 8. Thats really all I'm going to say about it. If you can't see the merits of my proposal, then talking it to death is just wasting time. So, first things first: Lets take a look at the votes for the first 2 days: Day1: Votes for Hopeless1der TOWNIE: BioSC - Unconfirmed Release - Townie roflwaffles55 (Jingle) - Unconfirmed Esspen - Unconfirmed Votes for roflwaffles55 (Jingle) Unconfirmed: BassInSpace - Unconfirmed dNa - Unconfirmed Hopeless1der - Townie Votes for Release TOWNIE: JieXian - Unconfirmed Votes for AegonC (Milton) TOWNIE: Vivax - Townie Votes for Keirathi Unconfirmed: NrGmonk - Unconfirmed Day2: Votes for Vivax TOWNIE: JieXian - Unconfirmed JingleHell - Unconfirmed Miltonkram - Townie BioSC - Unconfirmed Esspen - Unconfirmed NrGmonk - Unconfirmed Votes for JingleHell Unconfirmed: BassInSpace - Unconfirmed Vivax - Townie dNa - Unconfirmed Keirathi - Unconfirmed The repeat votes on the mislynches go to BioSC, rofl/JingleHell, and Esspen. Turns out all of them were in Vivax's list, but I'm not really sure how much stock we can put into that. It does seem fishy that rofl/Jingle had a large number of votes both days, and got out of it with an Esspen vote change. However, Jingle has his vote on Esspen right now. Has the mafia decided to give up one of their own already? Or is it possible that Esspen is just playing badly and mafia sees a chance to railroad him? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
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On July 02 2012 04:58 NrGmonk wrote: Keirathi, I think now the evidence against Esspen is indisputable and "concrete", with quotes like: No. That is exactly the opposite of concrete. Does he have the most compelling case against him? Certainly. Does that make it a concrete case? Definitely not. Think about our judicial system. Everything you quoted is circumstantial evidence. Its probably enough to convince a jury of our peers of the defendants guilt, but it is very much not guaranteed. Think about it like this: if you assume that he is mafia, then those quotes can easily feel like indicators of that. But what if you assume he is town? Now, I agree that he probably still has the strongest individual case against him. But it is NOT concrete. But, our only hope for concrete evidence at this point are credible blue role claims, and the slim chance that they actually have useful information. And claiming them during the day today would just be suicide, hence my whole no-lynch policy. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 02 2012 13:38 JieXian wrote: If you assume he's town you'd also need to assume he's ...... kinda confused about the game or something. Thats kind of my point. Just look at the Vivax case. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 02 2012 14:41 BassInSpace wrote: Medic: Only knows as much as the rest of town. Veteran: Same as above, at this stage; there has been a night kill each night so far. Jailkeeper: Also only knows as much as the rest of town at this stage. Vigilante: Dead Key words: at this stage. Maybe there's a doc save tonight. Maybe a Vet is shot. Maybe a Jailer roleblock's the mafia kill role. Maybe we  O* have a detective. We just don't know anything for sure. And being wrong is game over.I didn't address your post because there's nothing new to address. If we don't get extra information tomorrow after a no-lynch, then we're back at this exact spot again, but we only have 7 people to make cases against, rather than 8. My whole spiel only works if we do both things I propsed, and it might already be too late for the no-lynch to be effective. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
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On July 02 2012 15:31 JieXian wrote: what .. pretty sure you can't roleblock a "mafia kill role" because there isn't one in the OP >_> And the game won't make sense if there was one. And I highly doubt a vigi would sit quietly without shooting Esspen or JingleHell. What I meant was that in other versions of Mafia that I have played, the mafia nightkill goes through a single person, generally the lowest on the mafia totem pole (for example, vanilla mafia aka mafioso). It works like this because it enables other advanced roles, like for instance a Watcher/Tracker, who can see who visits someone at night, or if a person visited someone at night. In a situation like this, if the mafia kill goes through a single person, then a roleblock of the mafia night kill is possible. But I reiterate, I don't know the technical mechanics here, so its just speculation based on previous experience. | ||
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