EPT
Sorry I wasn't able to contribute more. GL Town!
Newbie Mini Mafia XVIII - Page 28
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Sorry I wasn't able to contribute more. GL Town! | ||
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Esspen
Croatia29 Posts
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
On July 01 2012 20:31 Esspen wrote: I agree with all of you! Uhm, half of what you're blindly posting nonsense to agree with is accusations against you. You might want to read through them and start considering some sort of actual defense. ##Vote Esspen | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
On July 01 2012 16:46 BassInSpace wrote: + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 09:18 JingleHell wrote: Well, answering that requires that we understand what the scum were thinking. We don't, so all we can do is drive ourselves into a state of paranoia trying to metagame the people who know more than us. The best thing we can do is try to find the case where Milton being dead is beneficial to the scum. Look at his discussions, look at his thought process, look at other people's thought processes about him. Time to dive into the filters and start trying to piece things together, IMO. + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 09:30 JingleHell wrote: Milton calls Keirathi scummy. Which was something Vivax also thought before the OMGUS against me exploded into a rather unfortunate shitstorm. + Show Spoiler + On June 30 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote: Keirathi, the question doesn't come down to "what does town lose if player X is telling the truth." It comes down to who you think is scum. The fact that you acknowledge that there is a decent case against him but you does not reflect well on your alignment. Here is why I'm voting Vivax over JingleHell: Vivax's play has been incredibly scummy, JingleHell's has not. It's that simple. On June 30 2012 08:02 Miltonkram wrote: EBWOP: "The fact that you acknowledge that there is a decent case against him but you don't vote for him does not reflect well on your alignment." Keirathi, of course, was right in the thick of a lot of the hot points of that mess, and now he's trying to discuss policy when we're in a world of trouble numerically. Milton's other suspicion mentioned at one point... Bear in mind, even though yesterday went terribly, Milton was one of the few people really trying to consider the cases, and look at alternatives even after it started exploding. This isn't even a read, this is ONLY Milton's last couple of times saying someone looked scummy, which gives us a place to start looking. After the debacle, I'm going to be as methodical as possible to avoid a town loss because of another OMGUS shouting match. These are only highlights, please read filters and help with this, the last thing we want is for scum to poke and prod us into a horrid bandwagon. JingleHell, I feel like your second post is doing exactly what you cautioned against in your first post: metagaming the people who know more than us. Besides, I don't think Milton's point against keirathi holds any weight anymore, considering how Vivax flipped. Here's what got me considering that sidetrack. In retrospect, it feels like a rather obvious false trail. No contribution to the point he's bringing up, but it could easily be encouraged into tons and tons of finger pointing in every direction. Hell, it almost worked. On July 01 2012 09:13 Esspen wrote: I'm confused, why would mafia kill somebody we suspected of being mafia? Wtf? | ||
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I just want to make this clear before I move on. The entire idea was because INFORMATION beats HUNCHES every time. If we do have a Cop, or a doc saves someone, or a Veteran gets shot, those are people WE CAN CLEAR. We CANNOT mislynch again. It is game over if we do. The odds are more favorable at 7 people than 8. Thats really all I'm going to say about it. If you can't see the merits of my proposal, then talking it to death is just wasting time. So, first things first: Lets take a look at the votes for the first 2 days: Day1: Votes for Hopeless1der TOWNIE: BioSC - Unconfirmed Release - Townie roflwaffles55 (Jingle) - Unconfirmed Esspen - Unconfirmed Votes for roflwaffles55 (Jingle) Unconfirmed: BassInSpace - Unconfirmed dNa - Unconfirmed Hopeless1der - Townie Votes for Release TOWNIE: JieXian - Unconfirmed Votes for AegonC (Milton) TOWNIE: Vivax - Townie Votes for Keirathi Unconfirmed: NrGmonk - Unconfirmed Day2: Votes for Vivax TOWNIE: JieXian - Unconfirmed JingleHell - Unconfirmed Miltonkram - Townie BioSC - Unconfirmed Esspen - Unconfirmed NrGmonk - Unconfirmed Votes for JingleHell Unconfirmed: BassInSpace - Unconfirmed Vivax - Townie dNa - Unconfirmed Keirathi - Unconfirmed The repeat votes on the mislynches go to BioSC, rofl/JingleHell, and Esspen. Turns out all of them were in Vivax's list, but I'm not really sure how much stock we can put into that. It does seem fishy that rofl/Jingle had a large number of votes both days, and got out of it with an Esspen vote change. However, Jingle has his vote on Esspen right now. Has the mafia decided to give up one of their own already? Or is it possible that Esspen is just playing badly and mafia sees a chance to railroad him? | ||
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
I'm not voting for Esspen based on some sort of scum ulterior motive, like you seem to be suggesting. My vote on Esspen comes from generally scummy behavior, and the fact that twice now, he's vote-switched at the last minute to set up the only living person I know is town. Granted, I can't prove my innocence in any foolproof way. The best I can do is ask that you please give a read on me that doesn't involve rofls, or Esspen, and treat those as "potential additional weight", rather than the basis for a case. I've already explained the best rationale I can think of for Esspen's switch. While I understand why I'm under scrutiny at this point, all I ask is that we have more reasoning behind any votes against me than there were supporting yesterdays catastrophe of an OMGUS. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On July 02 2012 02:18 Keirathi wrote: The repeat votes on the mislynches go to BioSC, rofl/JingleHell, and Esspen. Turns out all of them were in Vivax's list, but I'm not really sure how much stock we can put into that. It does seem fishy that rofl/Jingle had a large number of votes both days, and got out of it with an Esspen vote change. However, Jingle has his vote on Esspen right now. Has the mafia decided to give up one of their own already? Or is it possible that Esspen is just playing badly and mafia sees a chance to railroad him? Keiraithi.. kei kei keirathiiiii... his list was made up of people who voted against him .. .... .... .. ... .... .. >_> 1 thing i don't understand. Why the hell are so many people using Vivax's list as a starting point? Just post proper reasonings. I already wrote so much on Esspen so I don't feel like regurgitating everything out again. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
By all means use Vivax's list as a guide (like every single post from everyone) but don't take it like it's the word of god. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
from the list: Bio (Release was fosing him before being shot) Esspen - obvious Jingle - obvious Keraithi (Milton was fosing him before being shot) Keraithi I don't like the many logical unsoundness in your posts one bit. However the evidence against Esspen is piling so high I can't pass that up for now. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On July 02 2012 03:07 Keirathi wrote: I said I didnt think we could put stock into it sooooooooooooooooooorrry man | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
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monk
United States8476 Posts
On June 29 2012 23:28 Esspen wrote: There isl no chance he's detective, I'm ready to bet on my kidney. Why would he be accusing all the people he accused if he could focus on the one he knew to be the scum and make a good case on him. This seems like a very sad fake roleclaim. On June 30 2012 07:08 Esspen wrote: I do not get all this Jingle vs Vivax discussion. Whomever we lynch, the result will be the same in the end. Even if we confirm that Vivax is the DT, he'll be killed during the night immediately. On July 01 2012 09:13 Esspen wrote: I'm confused, why would mafia kill somebody we suspected of being mafia? Wtf? meant to throw us off On July 01 2012 20:31 Esspen wrote: I agree with all of you! He's basically giving up here, agreeing with all our accusations against him. If he were townie and he said this, he would basically be breaking the rules of the game, which would be trying to win. Suiciding as townie is definitely not trying to win. Because evidence against Esspen is so damning, it would be foolish for even mafia to vote against Esspen, as that would be a clear scum tell. We should also not waste too much time arguing about Esspen and move onto other suspicious activity, deciding who is the next best person to lynch on the next day. On July 02 2012 03:06 JieXian wrote: I see Monk being so afraid for no reason too. You can chill for now, I think anyone will have anything against you yet. Focus on reads. I'm not afraid at all. I was just using the list to advance my argument in my previous post. I don't mind that I'm implicated in the list, because there's been no other reason for anyone else to suspect me. The list is logcial, and I agree that according to that logic alone, I can't be narrowed down to "not mafia". I also think my contributions to town are enough for people to not suspect me. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Votecount: Esspen (4): NrGmonk JingleHell dNa JieXian No-lynch (1): Keirathi Not Voting: BioSC Esspen BassInSpace Currently, Esspen is set to be lynched. Note: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled. | ||
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monk
United States8476 Posts
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JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
On July 02 2012 10:04 NrGmonk wrote: No one's posted in 5 hours O_O. Well, I didn't feel the need to respond directly to your analysis, and I didn't want to spam it out of existence, because it makes a lot of sense. If there's anything you'd like my input on (I have kind of already given mine on Esspen, including a vote, after all), I'll happily get on it. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 02 2012 04:58 NrGmonk wrote: Keirathi, I think now the evidence against Esspen is indisputable and "concrete", with quotes like: No. That is exactly the opposite of concrete. Does he have the most compelling case against him? Certainly. Does that make it a concrete case? Definitely not. Think about our judicial system. Everything you quoted is circumstantial evidence. Its probably enough to convince a jury of our peers of the defendants guilt, but it is very much not guaranteed. Think about it like this: if you assume that he is mafia, then those quotes can easily feel like indicators of that. But what if you assume he is town? Now, I agree that he probably still has the strongest individual case against him. But it is NOT concrete. But, our only hope for concrete evidence at this point are credible blue role claims, and the slim chance that they actually have useful information. And claiming them during the day today would just be suicide, hence my whole no-lynch policy. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On July 02 2012 12:40 Keirathi wrote: No. That is exactly the opposite of concrete. Does he have the most compelling case against him? Certainly. Does that make it a concrete case? Definitely not. Think about our judicial system. Everything you quoted is circumstantial evidence. Its probably enough to convince a jury of our peers of the defendants guilt, but it is very much not guaranteed. Think about it like this: if you assume that he is mafia, then those quotes can easily feel like indicators of that. But what if you assume he is town? Now, I agree that he probably still has the strongest individual case against him. But it is NOT concrete. But, our only hope for concrete evidence at this point are credible blue role claims, and the slim chance that they actually have useful information. And claiming them during the day today would just be suicide, hence my whole no-lynch policy. If you assume he's town you'd also need to assume he's ...... kinda confused about the game or something. | ||
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