EPTTL Mafia LVI - Page 3
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 06 2012 02:02 BroodKingEXE wrote: Why the surprise? You should be happy with an ET lynch. In fact you pushed against a 12 lynch in order for another lynch (I assume ET). On another note, I feel Vivax was the person who started the idea and austin was the person that pulled it through. Based off my previous suspicions and the way the votes went down, I'd say Vivax was most likely to be scum. He pushed ET for a while but never had the confidence to put a vote in. Although he was the first to put in a vote he was pretty hesitant about it until the was more confirmation in the thread. Vivax's post on how info could be drawn makes more sense to kill twelve. I should be happy with an ET lynch, yes. Actually, hold up. In the interest of consolidating posts, I'm going to combine this with another I was making. I pushed against a 12 lynch during the day, and pushed for ET. Thought thread sentiment was heavily toward lynching 12. All times KST/TL time 1:30 - I vote ET. Reasoning in thread - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 01:30 austinmcc wrote: Post written quickly, may be illegible. So many people look a little scummy, but right now I'm on board with ET as an option. Not reading thread - So far, hasn't made the promised posts - Plus, after his whole exchange with drwiggl3s, who he concludes just has poor logic, ET NEVER steps in to defend drwiggl3s. I know at least a few people dropped in to say they read wiggl3s as bad town. ET never came back to do so, despite being around at points throughout the night. 1:30 - 4:14 - ShiaoPi unvotes Hyaach. Grush unvotes Vivax, votes 12. BKE, Ghost, Mandalor vote 12. ShiaoPi reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 02:21 ShiaoPi wrote: Some thoughts after I caught up, @hyaach: BKE also asked you, and you did respond with that quote of "you have to ask to get a case". Guess you don't like him either. Reading through your recent posts I want to thank you for (finally) contributing thoughts which make sense and generally stepping up your activity. You are off my suspectlist for now. ##unvote @Katina: I do not like wasting a lynch on a troll. Better to shoot him or blow him up. Good to see you unlurking and contributing. I'll probably reread mandalor now. @Twelve: Same reasoning about casualman as with Katina, Is he your strongest scumread right now? Regarding ET, I did not play any games with him so I don't know about his meta, but it is unsettling that he vanished after being one of the more active persons beforehand. Can somebody link me some games of him? Grush Reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 02:21 grush57 wrote: YES LETS SHEEP A USELESS PLAYER THAT WILL GIVE US TOWNIES NO INFO AND WASTE A WHOLE CYCLE. U CRAY CRAY. oR MAYBE YOUR SCUM. HMM HMMHMHMHMHMMHMHMHMHMHMHMHMHMMHMHMHMHMHMHMHMH All you have to think, and scum will fall! ##Unvote: Vivax ##Vote: Twelve BKE reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:07 BroodKingEXE wrote: Well Twelve my question hasn't been answered directly, and you haven't disproved my casual is TL troll theory so... ##Unvote ##Vote: Twelve Ghost reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:29 ghost_403 wrote: I find the gap in him posting his Foxtrotter vote and him expalining his Foxtrotter vote... disconcerting. If missing the deadline really was his main concern there, why wouldn't you immediately post after the flip "Well, shit. I know him IRL, and he posted scummy so I voted for him, lol, my bad"? Instead, he waits for people to make a big deal about it. His actions there were of the "too scummy to be scum" variety, but maybe he's just bad scum? That and all the stuff Acro said. ##vote twelve I want to hear why he thinks we should be lynching casualman. His filter doesn't really give a good reason for it. I want to hear Katina's thoughts on Twelve. Also, where's Majujuju been? He dropped in, voted 12 and has been gone ever since. Mandalor reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 05:09 Mandalor wrote: Ninjavote? I explained I'd go for either Katina or Twelve. Doesn't look like Katina will gain enough votes so I went for Twelve. 6:58 - Wiggles posts that ET has asked to withdraw - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 06:58 Mr. Wiggles wrote: EchelonTee has asked to withdraw from the game. I am currently looking for a replacement. If you know one, please let them know of the opening. 7:13 - Vivax unvotes ET, votes 12 again - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 07:12 Vivax wrote: ET's replacement should be bombarded with accusations once and if one joins. For now back to Twelve since I don't wanna risk ET getting lynched when he could be modkilled. I really hope he doesn't flip town. 8:52 - Voting summary in vote thread has Twelve with 10 votes, ET with 4 votes. ***This is why I was surprised BKE, to answer your question in all of this. Twelve had 10 out of 17 total votes. Next highest vote getter was ET with 4. ET had asked for a replacement, which explains his absence. Did not expect a swap to ET given that with the replacement post, he basically looked better than before. Still felt Twelve was town, however. See my filter for posts asking Twelve to explain his conspiracy theory better, asking people how they dealt with some of Twelve's posts and maintained scum reads. We have just over an hour until lynch, thread sentiment against Twelve, expecting him to get lynched*** 9:21 - Vivax unvotes 12, votes ET - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 09:21 Vivax wrote: -.- Ok, I'll vote ET again. If anyone believes in twelve, switch too. Need 4 votes I think. 9:24 - 9:40 - Kurumi questions 12 in thread. Unvotes 12, votes ET - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 09:24 Kurumi wrote: Number person, is the echo-device a bad detective? On July 05 2012 09:29 Kurumi wrote: Please, number person, do a scout promise that you are a good detective and getting rid of the echo-device benefits us. On July 05 2012 09:30 Twelve wrote: scouts honor? scross my heart hope to die? On July 05 2012 09:32 Twelve wrote: EBWOP Scouts honor! Pinky swear etc, I'm a good detective Kurumi! dont lynch me! On July 05 2012 09:34 Kurumi wrote: Please imagine you have an ability to flip someone right here, right now. Who would it be? On July 05 2012 09:34 Twelve wrote: BroodKingExe On July 05 2012 09:39 Twelve wrote: I actually think Katina is town, if he were scum he would likely just let me get lynched, but he actually sticks up for me  On July 05 2012 09:40 Kurumi wrote: I like your choice. I am moving my vote now. Please reread the thread/get some guides running fast so we can stop discussing you as a scum candidate. I believe in your newbieness. ***It's during this exchange that I make that post you referenced. I'm surprised that people are switching to ET. We're like 30 minutes to lynch to at this point. People have been on 12 all day. Wiggles told us hours ago that ET asked for a replacement. Vivax was on ET, then 12, then ET again close to deadline. That swap, and Kurumi popping up to type real sentences, confuse me.*** 9:56 - 9:58 - At 9:56, NSH unvotes 12 and votes ET. Reasoning given at 9:58 - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 09:58 NoSmurfHere wrote: I've switched my vote upon seeing the voter list and that Acro switched as well. I trust his judgment as I've been afk. Reading now ***Wiggles posts his final vote count at 9:57. I've got normal and voting threads up, but was mainly watching the normal thread to see if anyone would swap. Did not see NSH's post in normal thread until 9:58, 2 minutes after his swap and 1 minute after Wiggles' final vote count. I get worried about the swaps to ET, start feeling wrong about it. Try to unvote ET and vote 12, but it's too late. I post at 10:00, final vote count at 9:57*** So, my surprise is the number of late vote swaps. NSH's reasoning for his swap. The timing at the very end. Vivax's hopping back and forth. The fact that thread sentiment genuinely seemed to be against 12 most of the cycle, with the same counterpoints coming back - his weird conspiracy theory mainly. Yet votes swap to ET after we know he's going to be modkilled or replaced. I almost swapped off him to Katina just because I figured ET was a wasted vote at that point, but stayed around because I figured Katina wasn't getting lynched. Shouldn't have done so. But my thought process is "ET replaced/modkilled, better move to someone else," whereas others had the opposite thought, and moved TO ET after knowing he was going to be replaced/modkilled. Now hold up, because I want to check something and make another, related, post (Not trying to spam, but this was general timeline and the next is focused) | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
23:43 - Votes Katina - + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 23:42 Acrofales wrote: Hrmmm, I disagree. I don't know when she started making decent sensible cases and pushing her reads in Jubjub, but she has not done that yet here. I guess the frivolous nonsense is more like jubjub than like MTG, but I don't get the feeling she's putting effort into scumhunting this game (see her D1 reason, and later defense of her BKE vote), whereas she was clearly doing that in jubjub. ##vote katina ***For the next 6 hours or so, Acro has two targets: Katina and Vivax. He was on Vivax a lot D1 and overnight, and just kept bringing those two up. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 03:01 Acrofales wrote: I think the lynch should be between Vivax and Katina. On July 04 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote: Oh, and just in case it's not clear from my vote, I currently favour Katina over Vivax. 6:01 - 6:03 - Acro swaps from Katina to Twelve - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:01 Acrofales wrote: Okay. I've read Twelve's filter and some of the points brought up about him. I now have a top 3 people I want to lynch. Twelve has some stuff that reads like scum. Compilation of the cases: I don't know why Mattchew is making connection cases based on not-yet-flipped people, but of the two I think Twelve is more likely to flip scum and I think this case sums up his D1 behaviour. Twelve's defense consists mainly of "it was a joke" and some discussion about what a bandwagon is, which seemed okay when I hadn't read his filter and only saw the case in a list of scum. Now I'm no longer convinced. + Show Spoiler [Twelve's defense] + On July 02 2012 04:55 Twelve wrote: @Mattchew haha where to start... My first post that you quote was from before the game even started, so it probably shouldn't be taken to seriously. I simply don't know anyone here and was trying to start a conversation. The fact that you see a contradiction is also puzzling I can sort of see how it could be misinterpreted that I was saying "I am all for the hatred of bandwagons" but thats not what I was saying. In fact I was saying the opposite, I was asking to be clued in so I could join a bandwagon, but this was largely a joke. Suffice to say, anything I said before the game officially started probably shouldn't concern town too much. I do take issue with your use of the word band wagon though, upon reading the thread I found both BKE and Kurumi extremely suspicious, regardless of other players posts, and made my thoughts known. BKE says alot while conveying extremely little actual information, appearing to be helpful but really just mixing the pot. Kurumi writes long winded, somewhat schizophrenic sounding poems to his co-workers that are about as informative as a fortune cookie. I don't to see a vote count or FOS: BKE FOS:Kurumi for my brain to begin forming conclusions. As for the cutesy yuck bit, he seemed pretty angry that I would vote in the vote in the voting thread without warning him, so I tried to keep things light (read: I wrote something much ruder but thought better of it and decided to kill him with niceness :D)As far as calling out casualman, I tried very hard to think of any strategic reason a town would vote for themselves and I could think of none. I had the same issue with VE voting for himself, but voted unvoted in the same post, sort of like lowering and raising a supply depot while you wait for your rax to build i guess, so I really don't have a problem with it going under the radar. Bugs suggested this about his apeshit behaviour at night: I don't really see a reason why a townie would call someone godfather. Scum pushing a townie, or scum distancing himself from an actual godfather are both better explanations. I seem to remember there being another case against Twelve which was the one that actually made him blip on my scumdar, but I cannot find it. Anyway, yeah. I'm still not completely sure about Vivax, Katina has gone awol again. Lets kill Twelve. ##unvote ##vote Twelve ***Acro stays on Twelve for a while. Continues referencing Katina/Vivax in posts. Between wanting to lynch Vivax or Katina and now, he's somehow unsure on Vivax - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 21:33 Acrofales wrote: Twelve: scum. I have my vote on him. I suggest you do the same. ShiaoPi: uncomfortable lynching him for reasons stated above. Katina: grouped with ET for highest probable veteran to be scum. I actually think her case on Mandalor has merit. But her best read is on a lurker, which is kind of a cop-out for a veteran. She was under pressure, came in and made a complete throwaway case on casualman, is not pushing the case and has probably gone off to lalaland again. If someone with a better metaread can point me in the right direction I will sheep. So far Mattchew and VE have town reads and Bugs and ghost have a scum read from meta. I was leaning scum based on the meta. Mattchew shot that down without explaining. Still waiting to hear why Katina is playing to her town meta from people with more playtime with her (particularly from Mattchew) before deciding on her. It seems clear that we're not going to get anything useful out of her today. Vivax: still unsure on what the hell he is. Uncomfortable with lynching him at the moment 3:02 - Reinforcement of his position on Twelve, after some back and forth with Vivax. Notes that he has been getting a scummier feeling on ET because of lack of defense/lack of scumhunting - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:02 Acrofales wrote: I downright disagree on your policy, but the list you come up with corresponds to mine. I don't like a grush lynch, but it's mainly meta (he's playing the same as in space station where I blew him up and he flipped town). Other people have referenced LV and I agree that there he played far more actively. No clue how to read him and it seems like a coinflip. I have him with kurumi, casualman, majuju and adam: I'd bet my life that there's scum in that list, but fucked if I know how many or which ones. If there's still a vig with bullets he should be shooting into this list, though. DT should also be checking these, because I have given up trying to get a read from their posts. I actually find your whole logic on the policy completely topsy turvy and it also doesn't agree with your conclusions. Twelve, Katina and ET all have filters that are readable. They can be analyzed. We can analyze the cases made against them too. That gives us information to work with to unravel the rest of the team. Eventually we'll have to deal with the lurker team, but with, hopefully, some aid from vigis and DTs we won't have to lynch all six of them (we don't have time anyway). Now onto scumhunting: ET and Katina are the only two who have changed since last we chatted. Katina is here and posting. She seems unconcerned about getting lynched, which is more townie than scum. Then again, I was just told in SSB that reactions are the easiest thing to fake for scum. Still on the fence. ET has steadily been rising. The more I read his filter the more I see reasons for scum to post the way he does and the less it appears to be townie. His utter lack of defense against the cases raised against him, and his failure to do any scumhunting today despite the promise are making him look scummier every time I look at it. But Twelve is a better lynch, imho. There are just too many contradictions and coincidences in his filter. #ITEM No. 1 I'm not feeling the casualman lynch as a scum lynch. I hate associative cases before we flip someone, but with Katina and Twelve both pushing casualman it just feels like the easy townie that is being thrown in front of the truck by the scumteam. I also don't buy his "most likely scum lynch": it's a coinflip. No. The most likely scumflip is Twelve. #ITEM No. 2 I had quoted Mattchew's case mainly for its second point, which was the HORRID reasoning around his BKE vote. The first point seemed adequately explained by s0lstice as Mattchew failing reading comprehension, but the reasoning around Twelve's vote was terrible and Mattchew called him out on it. However, that doesn't really matter. The problem is with the bolded part in the reply. This reads to me like a scum who had dodged a bullet. Unfortunately for Twelve, Mafia doesn't work like that and now Mattchew's read is gaining traction. He panicked and tried to wave it off. Yes, the first part of the case was crap, but the second point was valid, and still is. Dismissing half the post as bullshit doesn't make the other half bullshit too. ITEM No. 3 His night behaviour. How the hell do you go from "he's scum" to "he's the godfather" without some kind of prior knowledge. I don't get it and no matter how many times Twelve tells me it was a "noobie mistake" I still won't get it. In closing, Twelve is scum and should die for his sins. ##vote Twelve for reinforcement, my vote is already in the right spot 4:30 - 6:00 - Interaction between Vivax and Acro On July 05 2012 04:39 Acrofales wrote: Actually no. I already thought about it. I feel good on Twelve. On July 05 2012 04:39 Acrofales wrote: But tell me why anyway. I want to hear more of your reasoning. On July 05 2012 04:43 Vivax wrote: Cause Twelve suspected Bugs, who wasn't under pressure at the time, and rastaban. The guy who got killed by mafia. I wouldn't understand the actions from a scum point of view. There's a lot of talk about ET already. Take the way he tries to influence bandwagons without reads. On July 05 2012 04:45 Vivax wrote: It's a pretty small piece of evidence in a filter that mostly paints a bad light on him. I'd still vote for him if I didn't see it. On July 05 2012 05:19 Acrofales wrote: I have to say that I missed that bit from Twelve. Let me take another look, it could be a mistake, but you're right, there's something wonky there. In fact, it's the same reason why I started to think you weren't scum after all, lol. I have to say that twelve's posts are harder to make sense of. It's not so much a case as a conspiracy theory. I'll have to think about it. On July 05 2012 05:50 Acrofales wrote: [/b][/blue]Okay. Gone over the whole passage and it's a giant contradiction. I can't make sense of this. Just gonna post it in case someone else can make sense of the screwball logic that is happening here: First relevant post, when Twelve goes all paranoid theory: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:43 Twelve wrote: I'm hesitant to post this,but I have a feeling I may be killed tonight, and a REALLY strong feeling NoSmurfHere WILL NOT be Mafia killed tonight. I made a list of people who jumped on the mKmKmK lynch as I felt it was just an attempt of mafia to get a townie lurker lynched. As I went through the list of names using their filters, I came to some tentative conclusions. My current read is that if there is a Ringleader in this game (godfather), it is NoSmurfHere. + Show Spoiler + NoSmurfHere New Zealand. July 01 2012 10:25 Also your belief in "proof" probably suggests you shouldn't be playing mafia, given that most accurate reads are not based on anything anywhere close to proof. I feel he may be breadcrumbing for a detective role check. It was just a note next to his name when I Look at the interaction between NoSmurfHere and rastaban. After NoSmurfHere starts the bandwagon against mKmKmK(a lurker lynch I really didn't agree with), he seems very interested in a role claim from NoSmurfHere, perhaps trying to get a detective to waste a night and make a really dangerous "confirmed towny". + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 00:53 rastaban wrote: Yeah let's not anger the host. The other option is he is a blue acting strangely to it, but I am sure Mafia already thought of this if he isn't on their team so he is outed regardless of alignment. I think this is the easy and probably accurate lynch for today, so we should be thinking about pushing for a role claim from him. I may be reaching, but again, I think I may wake up dead and wanted to get my thoughts out there. Is he trying to link Bugs and Rastaban as scum members? He quotes Rastaban talking with EchelonTee about Bugs's VT roleclaim and says he's quoting an exchange between Rastaban and Bugs. At the time, I read this as him saying Rastaban or mK was a town DT who Bugs was trying to poke into checking him at night. I also didn't read Rastaban's post as him saying someone should check Bugs at night, but rather someone should check mK. So this whole thing confused me and all I got from that was "he says bugs is scum, but out-wifoms himself and says he's the godfather". That has two explanations: he's scum and knows bugs will look like town, or he's a townie out-wifoming himself who really thinks bugs is scumslipping his godfather role (as marvellosity seemed to think). What I didn't get from it was the theory of Bugs+Rastaban scumbuddies. The follow-up at daytime: + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 09:39 Twelve wrote: Alright I'm going to try and clarify some things since apparently I didn't explain myself very coherently. On the Foxtrotter swtich - I had just got a scummy read on foxtrotter out of the thread. I checked the voting thread and saw that a large bandwagon had formed on him. When I went to find out why there was such a huge swing of votes towards him, I noticed that I had less then 1 hour to vote. Instead of figuring out exactly how much time I had I just "ninja" switched in both threads. On saying "soooo, i guess i'll shut up :D " - I had just posted a ridiculous conspiracy theory/rant against NoSmurfHere. I still think he is scum, but it was a bad way to present the information. Anyways, pretty much every single thing I wrote turned out to be false. NoSmurfHere cannot be ringleader because BM was the Ringleader. Rastaban cannot be NoSmurfHere's mafia partner because Rastaban turned up green. Once i knew the facts, I felt silly for posting my theory, and offered to shut up. So this could be the fantastic failing of a scumplan and him covering it up. Or it could be a townie explaining how his giant conspiracy theory just failed spectacularly. I think this needs to be sorted out before we lynch Twelve and I am kinda backing down from my case. The rest of his filter is still terrible, but I agree that this whole conspiracy theory into backpedalling is too fucking weird to see from a scum mindset from my point of view. ##unvote for now. ***Acro unvotes Twelve, votes ET*** Of specific note is the post from 3:02. Look at Acro's reads on ET/Twelve
Now look at Acro's later reads on ET/Twelve
Who convinced Acro to change his read? Oh, one of his main suspects during D1 and part of D2, Vivax. The guy he was so suspicious of, but didn't quite want to vote for. And yes, I've defended Vivax and had a townread on him. I'm basically suggesting with this post that Acro/Vivax may be scum, and this is action between them, and Acro bussed BM, etc.. They both flopped all over Twelve/ET yesterday. Fight with each other in some posts, then all of a sudden Vivax causes Acro to see the light and swap to ET. Acro never returns, Vivax the convincer later swap to Twelve, then to ET later after Wiggles tells us ET will be replaced. Not confident in his read enough to stay on the guy that he's convincing someone else to swap to. Super Bonus Fun Post! [B]On July 04 2012 18:19 Vivax wrote: Adam comes under suspicion. Vivax pops back to D1 and finds what felt like a joke post from BM asking folks to shoot at Adam. Not damning, but I really don't like some of these interactions.Lynch twelve or katina. I think Shiao has posted enough to be estimated better once the two of them flip. Katina ignoring so many scummy players to suspect Adam is just ridiculous. I think I've found something to Adam's defense. So much for Adam. Alright. The other candidate for her and twelve is casualman. Obviously a troll and an easy target. I don't think he's mafia, but he sure could be an asset to them. I don't care if we lynch Katina or twelve for now. ET going silent stinks, too. He found a good reason to push a townie case cause of the kenpachi rule. No safer way for scum to cause a mislynch by promoting a policy lynch. Also, for an experienced player, he should be posting more as townie. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
VE, you previously found Vivax scummy. Do you still have him as scum? How did yesterday change your read? NSH, why sheep Acrofales? Why do you have a townread on him? Just the BM stuff or is it more? Other folks, does this look weird? Does anything feel off about how much Acro and Vivax snipe at each other, yet never end up voting each other? It's not like these suspicions are great. Acro did rail on BM. We don't know if Twelve is scum, so we don't know whether the voteswaps were Town --> Town like D1, or actually saved scum. But Acro's jump between Twelve and ET feels off to me (More off than Kurumi's, if that says anything). He got convinced by a guy he finds scummy most of this game, jumps to ET for reasons addressed by ET's asking for a replacement, but never returns to vote someone else. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Double bonus post - On July 05 2012 04:36 Vivax wrote: Acro, consider a vote switch to ET? Out of all the people on Twelve, Vivax asks Acro to consider switching. Doesn't try to convince anyone else at this point. And upon succeeding, upon getting someone to swap a vote to his read, surely he feels pumped and tries to swap other votes to ET...right? Nope. He doesn't directly engage anyone else and ask them to switch their votes, despite successfully getting Acro to do so. He singles out Acro, the guy who was accusing him for most of the game, gets that single person to change his vote, and then doesn't push anyone else to do the same. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 06 2012 06:30 Vivax wrote: austin, use the link to the post. I asked acro directly cause it was shortly after he posted something, so I knew he would read it. Yes. He had just posted about being out of town for the running of the bulls. You did ask him shortly after he posted something. But that's a bad justification. Other people had just posted things as well.
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 06 2012 06:52 NoSmurfHere wrote: Please give us some specifics.My townread on Acro was based on him pushing BM so mercilessly. I actually considered for a time that he might be an active scum attempting to establish himself but I don't remember at which point I dropped him as a suspect; I suppose it was because there were too many people who were scummier than him. As to your timeline Acro, you DID post doubts about Vivax. 100% agree. Then AFTER posting those doubts, relatively early on in D2, you still posted: On July 04 2012 03:01 Acrofales wrote: I think the lynch should be between Vivax and Katina. On July 04 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote: Oh, and just in case it's not clear from my vote, I currently favour Katina over Vivax. Despite having doubts on Vivax, you still listed him as your #2 scumread. Yes, NSH and I posted in favor of Vivax, but you went from "Vivax scum" to "doubts on Vivax" to "lynch Vivax or Katina" to "okay Vivax, you've convinced me." That's part of the problem, how much you and Vivax are just dancing around each other, but never actually voting. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
gg all | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Wished I'd actually posted my stupid thing in thread now: + Show Spoiler + So here's my fun theory, that I almost posted in thread before finding something else to talk about. Kurumi's early nonsense posts may/may not have had actual information in them. Town needs all the information it can get. Mafia has all the alignment information already. Therefore, town players will be reading and trying to interpret Kurumi's posts more than mafia players. Talking to Kurumi after the 12/ET vote, where he started posting in plainer english, does not count. This may break down if Kurumi is mafia, unsure what to make of that situation. But for fun: These are people that actively tried to interpret Kurumi posts: Mattchew (town), austinmcc (town), layabout (town), shiaopi (?), BKE (?), VE (?). Hyaach has claimed green checks on shiaopi and BKE. People that sort of try to read Kurumi: ET (town), Twelve (town), ghost (town), Acro (?) Acro just makes one little joke post, mainly speaks about Kurumi as a lynch target for being unreadable. If the checks on ShiaoPi and BKE are good, then VE is really the only person who can break this. For the one post where Acro sort of tries to engage Kurumi, he's got about 8 talking about how he can't read Kurumi and wants to lynch him. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I was going to post it, but then thought that acro failed to vote D2 so started looking at acro/vivax and went with that instead. Just wanted SOMETHING to spark discussion, because there were so many points during this game that town just stalled. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2012 08:20 Vivax wrote: Once Acro and Kurumi made that gambit defending a townie from a mislynch (which was quite a gamble), they had a bulletproof defense for lategame. At least for me, since I would never see scum renouncing on a mislynch. The only remaining options in lategame were maju and grush. Maju didn't even bother defending himself, everyone on the scumteam was pointing to grush, making him actually look less suspicious. This was quite nice play by scum, so I wouldn't take credit away from the scumteam, although they had casualman casting a lot of doubt at that stage of the game. If a dude who has been calling you scum all game changes his vote because you ask him to, something is wrong. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2012 16:21 Acrofales wrote: @austinmcc: are you talking about my switch off twelve? I thought my explanation was quite good. I mean... I backed off vivax for the exact same reason. I actually thought that through and figured that ignoring vivax would incriminate me slightly more than following a player I had marked as scum. I have to say that I would almost certainly play the same as town: if someone brings up a solid argument for why my scum target is town, I will take that argument into account regardless of my convictions about that player. Especially if it's the same argument I brought up earlier in defense of that player. Yeah, I'm talking about the switch from 12 to ET. Posted this and a few followups N2 - + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 06:02 austinmcc wrote: Not mentioned in the above timeline is Acrofales. Here's the short form of Acro during D2. 23:43 - Votes Katina - + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 23:42 Acrofales wrote: Hrmmm, I disagree. I don't know when she started making decent sensible cases and pushing her reads in Jubjub, but she has not done that yet here. I guess the frivolous nonsense is more like jubjub than like MTG, but I don't get the feeling she's putting effort into scumhunting this game (see her D1 reason, and later defense of her BKE vote), whereas she was clearly doing that in jubjub. ##vote katina ***For the next 6 hours or so, Acro has two targets: Katina and Vivax. He was on Vivax a lot D1 and overnight, and just kept bringing those two up. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 03:01 Acrofales wrote: I think the lynch should be between Vivax and Katina. On July 04 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote: Oh, and just in case it's not clear from my vote, I currently favour Katina over Vivax. 6:01 - 6:03 - Acro swaps from Katina to Twelve - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:01 Acrofales wrote: Okay. I've read Twelve's filter and some of the points brought up about him. I now have a top 3 people I want to lynch. Twelve has some stuff that reads like scum. Compilation of the cases: I don't know why Mattchew is making connection cases based on not-yet-flipped people, but of the two I think Twelve is more likely to flip scum and I think this case sums up his D1 behaviour. Twelve's defense consists mainly of "it was a joke" and some discussion about what a bandwagon is, which seemed okay when I hadn't read his filter and only saw the case in a list of scum. Now I'm no longer convinced. + Show Spoiler [Twelve's defense] + On July 02 2012 04:55 Twelve wrote: @Mattchew haha where to start... My first post that you quote was from before the game even started, so it probably shouldn't be taken to seriously. I simply don't know anyone here and was trying to start a conversation. The fact that you see a contradiction is also puzzling I can sort of see how it could be misinterpreted that I was saying "I am all for the hatred of bandwagons" but thats not what I was saying. In fact I was saying the opposite, I was asking to be clued in so I could join a bandwagon, but this was largely a joke. Suffice to say, anything I said before the game officially started probably shouldn't concern town too much. I do take issue with your use of the word band wagon though, upon reading the thread I found both BKE and Kurumi extremely suspicious, regardless of other players posts, and made my thoughts known. BKE says alot while conveying extremely little actual information, appearing to be helpful but really just mixing the pot. Kurumi writes long winded, somewhat schizophrenic sounding poems to his co-workers that are about as informative as a fortune cookie. I don't to see a vote count or FOS: BKE FOS:Kurumi for my brain to begin forming conclusions. As for the cutesy yuck bit, he seemed pretty angry that I would vote in the vote in the voting thread without warning him, so I tried to keep things light (read: I wrote something much ruder but thought better of it and decided to kill him with niceness :D)As far as calling out casualman, I tried very hard to think of any strategic reason a town would vote for themselves and I could think of none. I had the same issue with VE voting for himself, but voted unvoted in the same post, sort of like lowering and raising a supply depot while you wait for your rax to build i guess, so I really don't have a problem with it going under the radar. Bugs suggested this about his apeshit behaviour at night: I don't really see a reason why a townie would call someone godfather. Scum pushing a townie, or scum distancing himself from an actual godfather are both better explanations. I seem to remember there being another case against Twelve which was the one that actually made him blip on my scumdar, but I cannot find it. Anyway, yeah. I'm still not completely sure about Vivax, Katina has gone awol again. Lets kill Twelve. ##unvote ##vote Twelve ***Acro stays on Twelve for a while. Continues referencing Katina/Vivax in posts. Between wanting to lynch Vivax or Katina and now, he's somehow unsure on Vivax - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 21:33 Acrofales wrote: Twelve: scum. I have my vote on him. I suggest you do the same. ShiaoPi: uncomfortable lynching him for reasons stated above. Katina: grouped with ET for highest probable veteran to be scum. I actually think her case on Mandalor has merit. But her best read is on a lurker, which is kind of a cop-out for a veteran. She was under pressure, came in and made a complete throwaway case on casualman, is not pushing the case and has probably gone off to lalaland again. If someone with a better metaread can point me in the right direction I will sheep. So far Mattchew and VE have town reads and Bugs and ghost have a scum read from meta. I was leaning scum based on the meta. Mattchew shot that down without explaining. Still waiting to hear why Katina is playing to her town meta from people with more playtime with her (particularly from Mattchew) before deciding on her. It seems clear that we're not going to get anything useful out of her today. Vivax: still unsure on what the hell he is. Uncomfortable with lynching him at the moment 3:02 - Reinforcement of his position on Twelve, after some back and forth with Vivax. Notes that he has been getting a scummier feeling on ET because of lack of defense/lack of scumhunting - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:02 Acrofales wrote: I downright disagree on your policy, but the list you come up with corresponds to mine. I don't like a grush lynch, but it's mainly meta (he's playing the same as in space station where I blew him up and he flipped town). Other people have referenced LV and I agree that there he played far more actively. No clue how to read him and it seems like a coinflip. I have him with kurumi, casualman, majuju and adam: I'd bet my life that there's scum in that list, but fucked if I know how many or which ones. If there's still a vig with bullets he should be shooting into this list, though. DT should also be checking these, because I have given up trying to get a read from their posts. I actually find your whole logic on the policy completely topsy turvy and it also doesn't agree with your conclusions. Twelve, Katina and ET all have filters that are readable. They can be analyzed. We can analyze the cases made against them too. That gives us information to work with to unravel the rest of the team. Eventually we'll have to deal with the lurker team, but with, hopefully, some aid from vigis and DTs we won't have to lynch all six of them (we don't have time anyway). Now onto scumhunting: ET and Katina are the only two who have changed since last we chatted. Katina is here and posting. She seems unconcerned about getting lynched, which is more townie than scum. Then again, I was just told in SSB that reactions are the easiest thing to fake for scum. Still on the fence. ET has steadily been rising. The more I read his filter the more I see reasons for scum to post the way he does and the less it appears to be townie. His utter lack of defense against the cases raised against him, and his failure to do any scumhunting today despite the promise are making him look scummier every time I look at it. But Twelve is a better lynch, imho. There are just too many contradictions and coincidences in his filter. #ITEM No. 1 I'm not feeling the casualman lynch as a scum lynch. I hate associative cases before we flip someone, but with Katina and Twelve both pushing casualman it just feels like the easy townie that is being thrown in front of the truck by the scumteam. I also don't buy his "most likely scum lynch": it's a coinflip. No. The most likely scumflip is Twelve. #ITEM No. 2 I had quoted Mattchew's case mainly for its second point, which was the HORRID reasoning around his BKE vote. The first point seemed adequately explained by s0lstice as Mattchew failing reading comprehension, but the reasoning around Twelve's vote was terrible and Mattchew called him out on it. However, that doesn't really matter. The problem is with the bolded part in the reply. This reads to me like a scum who had dodged a bullet. Unfortunately for Twelve, Mafia doesn't work like that and now Mattchew's read is gaining traction. He panicked and tried to wave it off. Yes, the first part of the case was crap, but the second point was valid, and still is. Dismissing half the post as bullshit doesn't make the other half bullshit too. ITEM No. 3 His night behaviour. How the hell do you go from "he's scum" to "he's the godfather" without some kind of prior knowledge. I don't get it and no matter how many times Twelve tells me it was a "noobie mistake" I still won't get it. In closing, Twelve is scum and should die for his sins. ##vote Twelve for reinforcement, my vote is already in the right spot 4:30 - 6:00 - Interaction between Vivax and Acro ***Acro unvotes Twelve, votes ET*** Of specific note is the post from 3:02. Look at Acro's reads on ET/Twelve
Now look at Acro's later reads on ET/Twelve
Who convinced Acro to change his read? Oh, one of his main suspects during D1 and part of D2, Vivax. The guy he was so suspicious of, but didn't quite want to vote for. And yes, I've defended Vivax and had a townread on him. I'm basically suggesting with this post that Acro/Vivax may be scum, and this is action between them, and Acro bussed BM, etc.. They both flopped all over Twelve/ET yesterday. Fight with each other in some posts, then all of a sudden Vivax causes Acro to see the light and swap to ET. Acro never returns, Vivax the convincer later swap to Twelve, then to ET later after Wiggles tells us ET will be replaced. Not confident in his read enough to stay on the guy that he's convincing someone else to swap to. Super Bonus Fun Post! Adam comes under suspicion. Vivax pops back to D1 and finds what felt like a joke post from BM asking folks to shoot at Adam. Not damning, but I really don't like some of these interactions. You never really seemed to back off vivax, because while you stopped calling him scum every other post, you still listed katina as your preferred lynch for the day, vivax second. And while vivax asked you to switch votes, vivax himself switched 2 or 3 times that day between 12 and ET. I didn't like that a guy that couldn't convince himself AND that you found scummy got you to switch your vote. I don't know that I could have gotten you lynched though, tbh. I meant it when I said I was focused on katina the next day after that empty post of hers, which means you couldn't have been lynched for 120 hours. Enough people, including some influential people, had townreads on you that I may not have been able to get it done. | ||
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