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On June 26 2012 23:49 HiroPro wrote:Ok, I've got limerick topics selected. Doesn't look like I'll get to use them, though 
This game has a noob called HiroPro
Who wants to end dead as a dodo
He threatens with rhymes
But when the bell chimes
We all know that this is a no no!
Now back to 
I was enjoying the xsksc and Hyaach little spat. I just wish I had time to give it a good read through. At least it has both of them posting, which I think is great.
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Okay. Wacky idea. What if deconduo is Maju's partner. We all completely let him off the hook for the whole lie detector thing, but what if Maju checked Tali on N0 and it came back "weird" rather than "vigilante". If that is the case, then the whole lie detector part suddenly makes sense from a scum point of view.
Think of it:
Maju checks Tali and he gets back "weird"
Tali claims daytime vigi
Deconduo doesn't believe the claim at ALL, because he thinks this would've given back vigi on the check, so concludes that Tali is lying. He tells Tali to say this:
I am a dayvig
I am town
Deconduo is town
He plans for this to come back false, because he *knows* Tali is not a dayvig (and he's also not afraid of Tali's shot). However, he needs the "Deconduo is town" blurb in there to make himself "confirmed town". Because Tali is not a dayvig and deconduo won't get shot, this could also get the pressure off his scumbuddy Maju, who was in danger of lynching, if not shooting. When Tali flips town, but not dayvig, he is cleared as confirmed scum and goes into hiding.
What actually happened was possibly even better (although his scumbuddy died): Tali reacted in a really townie manner and Drazerk jumped into the fray. Deconduo being quick on his feet joggled the sentence round a bit:
Deconduo is town
Drazerk is town
Talismania is not town
Tali IS town, so this sentence is false, but because nobody believes deconduo would pull such a stunt as scum, he's off the hook.
This lie detector deal made me completely dismiss all my suspicions of deconduo, but I just can't help thinking that OTHER than that lie detector thing he has been horrid.
Hyaach played townie, and then went into lurker mode, but his spat with xsksc seems more like a town vs. town spat. xsksc played scummy, and then when the pressure was on reacted in a townie manner to it. When I can't find a clear scum motive for actions, I have to default to town. And one thing I absolutely cannot fathom is why either Hyaach or xsksc would withhold the NK: the pressure was very clearly on them and withholding the NK would only confirm to us that scum was hiding in Ghost/xsksc/Hyaach. That gives them a very finite window of opportunity and all NKs help.
However, if deconduo is scum, then withholding the NK makes sense: it allows him to get all those 3 killed, and by the time they're dead, he can win the game.
I invite everybody to look at deconduo's filter. It is scummy as hell. It goes from scummy (including a Majuju softdefense) into lie detector into hardcore lurker.
And yes, I know I am introducing someone into the equation AGAIN. I just don't feel the xsksc or Hyaach lynches anymore.
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Damn Tali, I hoped you would post your reads before dying. You're the only one I still trusted :S
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On June 26 2012 23:25 talismania wrote:
oh duh
Haha, this was such a fake-out. I knew there was no reason for scum to withhold KP. You knew there was no reason for scum to withhold KP. I was just hoping scum didn't know there was no reason to withhold KP
There is no reason to let either xsksc or Hyaach off the hook for this kill. It makes it marginally less likely that xsksc is scum because we've ruled out that he's a mafia goon: if he's scum, he has some ability that can be roleblocked, in addition to his KP.
However, I just don't feel a lynch on either of these guys anymore. Drazerk, what is your opinion of this?
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What is this?
If you play Dota2, pick a support. Seriously I'm tired of people going all carry mode and I'm the only one left to support them.
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What would Talismania's role show up as to Maju's rolecop?
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On June 27 2012 03:10 strongandbig wrote:
Acro if xkcd and Hyaach are both town then why would xkcd's check on Hyaach be red?
Acrofales for traitor anyone?
##vote: hyaach
You said it yourself: miller.
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Shit, you people are stupid.
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Tali and I were the only townies trying to play this game. Tali is now dead. Lynching me is about the dumbest thing you guys can do. But SnB is (probably) 3rd party, so from his PoV he doesn't care. Probably still has some pent up anger from me wanting to lynch him yesterday too.
I may be overthinking things and we should just lynch people who looked scummy at the start. However, I just don't feel the xsksc lynch anymore. Something is just off about it. I never really felt the Hyaach lynch. I am looking for alternatives to lynches that just feel like they are not townie lynches to do. If you guys think I'm wrong and we should be lynching into those two and then the day after lynching the other one if he flips town, lets just do that and if we're wrong I'll say "I told you so" and if we're right I'll be happy because you stopped a stupid mistake from happening.
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On June 27 2012 03:17 strongandbig wrote:
He would have been a reasonable hit target that night there was no kill.
And after that he started being all "trololol let's stop trying to lynch one of the obvious scum here and kill a third party instead!"
Like look at his switch from me to ghost, he just wanted to kill any third party, he didn't actually care about finding scum. He didn't even bother to make cases.
I didn't make a case on you because I wanted to kill you for math.
Your buddy made a decent case on ghost and there was little time. I read ghost's filter and found it scummy. The NK not happening also made sense if ghost was scum. A lot MORE sense than if xsksc or Hyaach was scum.
I knew tonight was a toss-up between Tali and myself for the shot (assuming no miracle and scum didn't hold their shot again). Drazerk would be making the exact same case against Tali as he is against me now that I am still alive. Whoever is scum probably felt my reads were further off-base than Tali's (he shot scum, I shot a blue), or that I was so verbose that I was shooting myself in the foot. Two accusations that could be leveled against my town play this game.
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On June 27 2012 03:21 Drazerk wrote:
I say we just lynch Hyaach purely because of the amount of information it will create
What information will it create? If he's scum? Great. If he's town, what information do we get?
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On June 27 2012 03:27 deconduo wrote:
Acro has been super scummy the last couple of days. Especially with the last minute switch to ghost, and now wanting to go after SnB. It feels like someone trying to lynch all the 3rd party. We haven't even cleared him of being scum, and we definitely haven't cleared him of being 3rd party.
I don't want to go after SnB. I want to go after you.
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On June 27 2012 03:30 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2012 03:28 Acrofales wrote:On June 27 2012 03:27 deconduo wrote:
Acro has been super scummy the last couple of days. Especially with the last minute switch to ghost, and now wanting to go after SnB. It feels like someone trying to lynch all the 3rd party. We haven't even cleared him of being scum, and we definitely haven't cleared him of being 3rd party. I don't want to go after SnB. I want to go after you. Nice OMGUS, great to help your case along. So far you are doing a fantastic job of getting everyone to not lynch you. :D
Do you even read this thread? Or just come in to give gratuitious comments?
On June 27 2012 03:00 Acrofales wrote:Okay. Wacky idea. What if deconduo is Maju's partner. We all completely let him off the hook for the whole lie detector thing, but what if Maju checked Tali on N0 and it came back "weird" rather than "vigilante". If that is the case, then the whole lie detector part suddenly makes sense from a scum point of view. Think of it: Maju checks Tali and he gets back "weird" Tali claims daytime vigi Deconduo doesn't believe the claim at ALL, because he thinks this would've given back vigi on the check, so concludes that Tali is lying. He tells Tali to say this: He plans for this to come back false, because he *knows* Tali is not a dayvig (and he's also not afraid of Tali's shot). However, he needs the "Deconduo is town" blurb in there to make himself "confirmed town". Because Tali is not a dayvig and deconduo won't get shot, this could also get the pressure off his scumbuddy Maju, who was in danger of lynching, if not shooting. When Tali flips town, but not dayvig, he is cleared as confirmed scum and goes into hiding. What actually happened was possibly even better (although his scumbuddy died): Tali reacted in a really townie manner and Drazerk jumped into the fray. Deconduo being quick on his feet joggled the sentence round a bit: Tali IS town, so this sentence is false, but because nobody believes deconduo would pull such a stunt as scum, he's off the hook. This lie detector deal made me completely dismiss all my suspicions of deconduo, but I just can't help thinking that OTHER than that lie detector thing he has been horrid. Hyaach played townie, and then went into lurker mode, but his spat with xsksc seems more like a town vs. town spat. xsksc played scummy, and then when the pressure was on reacted in a townie manner to it. When I can't find a clear scum motive for actions, I have to default to town. And one thing I absolutely cannot fathom is why either Hyaach or xsksc would withhold the NK: the pressure was very clearly on them and withholding the NK would only confirm to us that scum was hiding in Ghost/xsksc/Hyaach. That gives them a very finite window of opportunity and all NKs help. However, if deconduo is scum, then withholding the NK makes sense: it allows him to get all those 3 killed, and by the time they're dead, he can win the game. I invite everybody to look at deconduo's filter. It is scummy as hell. It goes from scummy (including a Majuju softdefense) into lie detector into hardcore lurker. And yes, I know I am introducing someone into the equation AGAIN. I just don't feel the xsksc or Hyaach lynches anymore.
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On June 27 2012 04:19 Drazerk wrote:
how did I miss that post 0.0
So now that you've seen it, why don't you grace us with your opinion. Now that Tali's dead it's up to us to clear this game... and I'm not even sure you're town.
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Okay. Lets just keep deconduo in mind then and lynch Hyaach or xsksc. Who do you think is scummier overall? Hyaach or xsksc?
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Okay. I also think that if there is scum in that night exchange, Hyaach looks slightly scummier (of course, xsksc still looks scummy from the first 2 days). I can get onboard with lynching a red check. At the very least if Hyaach flips pure green we know xsksc is scum.
##vote Hyaach
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On June 27 2012 08:13 Drazerk wrote:
Xsksc seems scummier but its generally easier to look townie as scum so I'd rather lynch Hyaach who has the red check on him
Okay, I missed the reasoning in this last night. How does this even work. It is easier to look townie as scum than as town?
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On June 27 2012 16:13 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2012 14:44 xsksc wrote:
My check last night was RBed - that goes without saying though.
##vote Hyaach
deconduo, don't be an asshole.
Vote me if you think I'm more likely to flip scum, don't do it to be fucking awkward. Its both. If you flip scum and the game ends its great. If you flip scum and the game doesn't end then we lynch acro. If you flip town we lynch hyaach. Lynching hyaach first is the most dangerous thing to do because there's a chance acro is a traitor, given how he saved you from being lynched yesterday and tried to divert the lynch again today. And now he's pushing for hyaach to be lynched first which is ridiculous as well.
Let me nip this in the bud. How does your mind work. If xsksc is town then I am scum for pushing a lynch OFF him and onto a claimed 3rd party. Wait WHAT? Lets rewind that:
xsksc is town
Acro pushes the lynch from a townie to a 3rd party
Acro must be scum
This is the most upside down, inside out, back to front reasoning in this thread so far. However, that's okay, because scum is allowed to do that (and then they get lynched for it). Here is you earlier:
On June 23 2012 07:12 deconduo wrote:
Acrofales isn't confirmed town by any means, and is confirmed to have KP. Just because he claimed his role early doesn't make him town.
Enter Talismania, who was the only one I trusted to make sense in this thread (Hiro makes sense, but is 3rd party. Drazerk is town, but doesn't make sense), who told you to read my filter. Instant 180º flip!
On June 23 2012 07:19 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2012 07:16 talismania wrote:
hyaach claimed town roleblocker, not 3P
acrofales is too much of a stretch. He asked me to shoot maju and dropbear. And he's been incredibly protown. And everything Oh I just assumed a Tyrion Lannister claim would be neutral, not town. Oh and you are right about acro, went through his filter, he isn't scum. Point still stands about xcvxc, lynch him first, not hyaach
What has happened since then is that I have pushed a lynch on 3rd party for rather valid reasons. I was doubting the xsksc/Hyaach lynch (and still am, but recognize that at least one of them has to die before lylo) and started thinking about the lynch and alternatives to it. If I had thought things through about your claim earlier, I would probably have gone straight to you, but as it was, I figured we had two more lynches left before mylo. If we lynched a 3rd party, it would be lylo instead of mylo, but other than that nothing would change. The rest is explained multiple times in the thread.
However, lets go back to you. You want to lynch xsksc, because lynching a roleblocker is dangerous (despite the fact that it is doubtful that a roleblocker can stop KP: that only works if the scum is vanilla). I would argue that it's the other way round: you're scum and NOT lynching a DT is dangerous, especially if Hyaach is in fact a miller (information scum has, because they know xsksc and Hyaach are both town). Lynching Hyaach tells us for 100% sure whether xsksc was lying and is therefore scum. Lynching xsksc and him flipping town means Hyaach could still be a miller rather than scum, forcing a Hyaach lynch tomorrow and allowing scum-deconduo to get away scot free.
However, lynching Hyaach puts actual scum in a difficult spot. You are forced to kill the DT, because Hyaach flipping miller will make his claim believable (scum could not know he was a miller, just that he was town. It would be an extremely lucky lie and Ockham's razor rules it out). However, you don't want to kill xsksc the DT, because he is who you want to hedge your lylo against: having to lylo with Drazerk and me means you're dead.
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Big CAVEAT for my above bit on deconduo: I am deliberately zoning in on the situation where Hyaach flips miller. If he flips pure town, we lynch xsksc and my case against deconduo can be discarded. If he flips scum, then either the game is over, or we rethink everything (particularly Hiro/SnB). If he flips framed then we are almost certainly dead: there is a second scumteam with the capability to frame someone (it's not maju's scumteam: they could only frame one person and that person is ET).
So the only situation where we have a truly difficult lylo is if Hyaach flips miller. The rest are layed out for us and that's why I focus on this situation when talking about deconduo.
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On June 27 2012 18:46 Drazerk wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2012 16:28 Acrofales wrote:On June 27 2012 08:13 Drazerk wrote:
Xsksc seems scummier but its generally easier to look townie as scum so I'd rather lynch Hyaach who has the red check on him Okay, I missed the reasoning in this last night. How does this even work. It is easier to look townie as scum than as town? Look at your own filter then look at mine the people you are arguably calling most likely to be town both are complete death traps (mainly mine but yours also sucks). Then look at my filter from holy roman and the skype logs (Totally directed at hassy) my play was arguable much much better ( All though this has to do with the fact I am a good scum player and a god awful town / third party player ) Townies make mistakes and generally aren't useful... scum have all game to make their gambit get into an awesome position and never leave it.
By this logic we should've lynched into Tali and HiroPro on D1... but lets save this discussion for post-game. We lynch Hyaach today!
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EPT
