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Bastard Mafia 2 - Page 15

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Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:32 GMT
#1842
(miller roleblocker makes sense because of Tyrion Lannister)

Also, being able to roleblock scum KP is automatic justification for a town roleblocker.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:32 GMT
#1843
On June 26 2012 02:31 Acrofales wrote:
Okay. A miller roleblocker actually makes a lot of sense atm and I feel pretty badly atm about both an xskskc and a Hyaach lynch. On the other hand, I feel we can't go wrong on a ghost lynch.

Prime thing that makes him scum: we KNOW hyaach is a roleblocker. We've been assuming scum held their KP, but what if ghost is simply a mafia goon and the roleblock STOPPED his KP. Even if that is what scum wants us to think, the WORST case scenario is that we lynch a 3rd party. Who cares? (except ghost himself)

Ghost said he'd play townie, but has not been playing townie
Roleblocking ghost had the effect of stopping mafia KP

Lets lynch him!

Stuck at the bottom of a page and I know nobody reads that shit (Mattchew told me)
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:39 GMT
#1846
It's what I want.
It's not what deconduo wants.
Tali hasn't made it completely clear yet what he wants.
Drazerk is a mystery to all.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:42 GMT
#1850
On June 26 2012 02:38 talismania wrote:
Hmm I still doubt ghost is mafia goon because of maju's case on fourface being as strong as it was.

The reason a NK was withheld was either to make ghost look bad, or because it didn't matter. Like, if it's a 1 on 1 between xsksc and hyaach and whoever's scum between them knows that, then they know the only way they have to win is to convince the third party players to join their side, and I think mathwise that happens tomorrow regardless of if they used a NK or not. The other possibility is that the NK was replaced by a traitor being recruited or something. Eh fuck too many possibilities.

That scenario was not properly thought through. The math does not work out.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:46 GMT
#1853
If ghost is 3rd party and scum withheld a kill to make him look bad, they are really stupid. What does scum win? 1 extra day in which we eliminate 1 3rd party. There's still the same number of townies as yesterday and we have eliminated one of the possibilities where scum might be hiding.

I have gone through all possibilities and it really made no sense for scum to withhold KP yesterday. My night plan was made in order to wifom scum into thinking it did and they *might* have fallen for it (I was hoping they did). However, if we assume scum can actually think things through for themselves, then they should know withholding KP was a bad move.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:48 GMT
#1857
On June 26 2012 02:44 ghost_403 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2012 02:10 HiroPro wrote:
On June 26 2012 02:01 Acrofales wrote:
On June 26 2012 01:48 talismania wrote:
actually fuck it.

if we're going to lynch third party, why not ghost? fourface claimed insane dt - why? probably because his ass wanted to mislead town. He's a survivor alright, but wins with scum. Just a thought. Also ghost has been acting weird since he's arrived.

Lynching ghost actually has a good chance of catching scum imho. As today has developed, he has been acting weirder and weirder. 4F never really convinced me he was town in any way. Ghost has played more coherently. It was actually you who convinced me 4F/ghost was improbable scum. Also, if we lynch ghost and he flips scum then we've proven Hyaach as a pretty townie roleblocker, leaving the road even clearer for an xsksc lynch tomorrow.

I am not opposed to killing ghost. My main reason for picking Hiro/SnB is because there is something fishy about their role and until we lynch one of them or the game ends we won't know what it is. I am inquisitive and not above lynching for information

Let me go reread ghost's filter, but a switch to ghost does not seem like a bad plan. At worst it'll prove that roleblocking ghost was NOT what stopped the mafia kill from happening.



Cool, I guess you guys can have this.


ghost_403 has claimed BP survivor and said that since he's BP, it's in his best interest to play pro-town. Thing is, ghost hasn't actually done anything like that this game. He makes a call for Nisani to be shot without ever talking about why he thinks Nisani is scum. He makes "reads" on DropBear and xsksc that just rephrase what other people have already said about them. Additionally, look at how uncomfortable ghost was with providing a concrete opinion on DropBear's alignment. ghost refers multiple times to DropBear as "bad townie or scum", but never actually decides which one it is.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 21 2012 01:11 ghost_403 wrote:
Nisani
StrongAndBig
MajuGazett
KharadBanar
EschelonTee

Two of my best scum reads are already dead, GJ town.

I really don't like having to put ET on this list, given how much him and my predecessor fought it out, but I really don't like how he jumped around on his voting. Later, I'll look through some of his previous games to see how he votes as town. Also, never trust the guy who reports the votecounts.

Given a bullet, I would shoot Nisani in a heartbeat.


On June 21 2012 01:25 ghost_403 wrote:
BioSC looked townish to me, but that came mostly from the reading of the House Chezinu situation early on in the game. Past that, I didn't really notice anything significant about him.

DropBear didn't make it on my spreadsheet until I looked at the players list. Points to terrible townie or lurking scum.


On June 22 2012 06:57 ghost_403 wrote:
I'm not a big fan of DropBear. He opens the game by pushing KB, then drops it after Maju flips because his single vote somehow exonerates him of all scumminess. It's a bad move on his part, but he was rather townish in how he stuck to his guns on that issue. Past that, the only thing he's really contributed is his case on Nisani. Take a look at his filter, he's not bringing anything to the town at all. Also, I don't like how he refuses to claim his role's name. Everyone else has, why not him? Very strange. He's either scum or very bad townie.

Now to look at xkcd. My ride home is almost here, so that might not get put up for a bit.




On June 23 2012 03:41 ghost_403 wrote:
Scum wouldn't shoot me tonight. Killing me doesn't get them any closer to winning the game. I don't count as town for their wincon, as detailed previously. I'm fine with being roleblocked, my problem is that I don't think it will help us find
scum. Your plan needs a town DT to actually work, and I haven't seen anything that shows you've thought that out. It's very strange considering the fact that you thought he was lying about his roleclaim to begin with.


ghost has claimed that he is bulletproof. So why is it that he's speculating about why scum wouldn't kill him? That scenario should never even cross his mind; it's not just that he's talking about being shot (that would be understable), but he specifically refers to himself dying from a scum shot (something which should not be possible if his claim is true).

The differences between what ghost has claimed to be and his actual words and actions in the thread are stark. ghost claimed that he is bulletproof, yet the way he talks suggests exactly the opposite. ghost says that he's a survivor who's interested in helping town as it helps him out too; yet he's done absolutely no scumhunting.



Show nested quote +
On June 26 2012 02:12 HiroPro wrote:
On June 26 2012 02:10 Acrofales wrote:
Okay, quick wrapup of ghost's play. He is clearly completely unconcerned about who is getting lynched (while he is out-of-shot). Which makes him not-town. But we knew that already. Complete toss-up between scum and 3rd party as far as I can read him, though.


Think about what ghost has claimed. He says that he's a BP survivor who's going to help town because he's at no risk of dying; has he actually done that? No.



Show nested quote +
On June 26 2012 02:33 HiroPro wrote:
ok, voting for ghost then, if that's what you guys want.


One of the greatest skills for scum to have is to get the ball rolling, then distance themselves from the mess that it causes.

Hiro, if you're going to push my lynch, I fully expect you to own it.


That only really works if the lynch is on a townie. Pushing a 3rd party (maybe scum) lynch as a claimed other 3rd party is hardly a scumtell.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:51 GMT
#1863
On June 26 2012 02:47 talismania wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2012 02:46 Acrofales wrote:
If ghost is 3rd party and scum withheld a kill to make him look bad, they are really stupid. What does scum win? 1 extra day in which we eliminate 1 3rd party. There's still the same number of townies as yesterday and we have eliminated one of the possibilities where scum might be hiding.

I have gone through all possibilities and it really made no sense for scum to withhold KP yesterday. My night plan was made in order to wifom scum into thinking it did and they *might* have fallen for it (I was hoping they did). However, if we assume scum can actually think things through for themselves, then they should know withholding KP was a bad move.


Funny if they just forgot to send it in.

That would be funny -- and bad play One thing this game has taught me is the infinite amount of wifom that a kill-less night can create. Totally worth remembering: even if it's suboptimal play, it is optimal due to the derailment of town into wifomtopia.

PS. I PREDICTED THIS:
On June 23 2012 03:08 Acrofales wrote:
That eliminates a number of scenarios. Lets go through the outcomes:

1. xllslsks says Hyaach is red and there is no NK: WIFOM central! Ignore everything and back to scumhunting
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:52 GMT
#1866
It's in Tali's hands.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:56 GMT
#1872
Man... if this works out just as badly as the last lynch I really believed in when I pushed it (HiroPro in newbie mafia) I am stopping mafia altogether (hint: it won't, Hiro was the medic)
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 17:58 GMT
#1874
In fact, that lynch is floating in the back of my mind every time I make a case now. It's why I really like a ghost lynch. Even if I am completely wrong, at WORST he's a 3rd party survivor and we know that scum derped and withheld the kill.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 18:05 GMT
#1881
Okay. So now we know that the remaining scum withheld his KP. I will spend a while contemplating for any good reason for scum to do that.

I don't think there's a framer, because then the OP is lying to us (once again), so we can tell xsksc who to check. My preference is for Drazerk or one of Hiro/SnB.

Alternatively we can just have Hyaach roleblock xsksc, because who really cares about DT checks anyway? It might prevent KP again!
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 18:08 GMT
#1882
Also, totally LOL at the fake rolename, truthful roleclaim deal. I can see what inspired that, though :D

So. xsksc claimed a rolename that wasn't in a previous game on this forum. I think we're back to lynching him tomorrow
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 19:34 GMT
#1898
On June 26 2012 03:52 deconduo wrote:
You guys -_-

Also now xsksc is the only one with a roleclaim that hasn't been in a previous TL mafia game.

In what game was Pinkie Pie?


Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 19:40 GMT
#1900
I like a roleblock on xsksc. I currently don't know which one of Hyaach and xsksc is scum, but I don't buy the rolename thing. Aside from pinky pie, I can't find a game that has my own rolename (I can find Ezio as part of the blurb in PYP Interesting), I also can't find Professor Badass as a rolename (I know Ver claimed it at some point) or finally any Neutral Balrog Survivor. Aperture has The Balrog, Demon of Morgoth, Assassinating Survivor, but it's not the same.


Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 19:41 GMT
#1901
On June 26 2012 04:37 strongandbig wrote:
Ummmmmmmm srsly?

It was in my little pony mafia.

I just used the TL search engine but restricted it to mafia subgroup.

Okay. I didn't actually search for that one. I never heard of that game and knew it wasn't in any of the games I had taken a look at.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 19:59 GMT
#1902
Still haven't found the other ones... and yes, I know how the TL search function works.

Also, @deconduo and Tali: I still insist the lynch wasn't bad. For myself, I was firmly stuck between xsksc and Hyaach as the last scum. There was a not-too-outside chance that ghost was scum and worst-case scenario was that we lynched a 3rd party. He was not helping us and just breezing by, so I don't feel bad for it.

We got a LOT of information: we know for sure that scum was withholding KP. We also got the whole rolename deal, even if I don't buy it yet (find me professor badass, ezio auditorie and neutral balrog survivor).


PS: I will accept my rolename with or without its typo
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 25 2012 20:31 GMT
#1906
On June 26 2012 05:09 HiroPro wrote:
I think iGrok claimed that he was a Neutral Surviving Balrog in either IRC or LoTR mafia.

Professor Badass was the hydra name that Curu and Erandorr used in Election Mafia.

I know that. Those aren't roles, though. I don't buy the theory.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 26 2012 07:03 GMT
#1910
On June 26 2012 05:47 strongandbig wrote:
At this point you've crossed the line into willful ignorance.

Lets just agree to disagree. I don't think you're right and I think it is a really fucked up reason to think someone's scummy. It's speculation about the mindset of the mod when he made the game.

There's plenty of other reasons to suspect xsksc. I don't like Hyaach's absense at all either.

xsksc: other than the red check, what makes Hyaach scum?
Hyaach: what makes xsksc scum?

Gogogo!
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 26 2012 09:46 GMT
#1917
Blablabla, this speculation on rolenames is retarded. I've done another search and can still only find the one (two due to copypasting) reference to Ezio. I KNOW I am Ezio de Auditorie and I am town, therefore I know that either my search powers are failing (and so are everybody else's apparently), or SnB's theory doesn't hold water.

Circumstantial evidence: Pinkie Pie is not a role from "TL Mafia lore". It is a role from an obscure and forgotten game (which Forumite did play in). Similarly MA and AMA are not "TL Mafia lore", nor are they exact rolenames. They are just the two factions in LI, which happens to be a famous game for other reasons (VE vs. Toad and Mattchew endgaming everybody). I cannot find the SCUM rolecop anywhere at all either, btw.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17988 Posts
June 26 2012 09:49 GMT
#1918
I had a great plan involving creating information asymmetry between xsksc and Hyaach by having them flip coins on their actions and encrypting the results of the coinflip, but I realized it was a lot of work for no gain whatsoever. We should just have Hyaach roleblock xsksc and be done with it.

Pros: if Hyaach is scum and wants to keep incriminating xsksc, he will hold his shot.
Cons: if xsksc is town we miss out on a DT check.

I think the pros outweigh the cons in this situation.
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