Newbie Mini Mafia XVI

On June 09 2012 11:48 grush57 wrote:

Yeah, you should always check people's filters and make analysis on them.

On June 09 2012 12:12 grush57 wrote:


Yeah but I want scum lynched not necessarily a lurker. However, if there are no clear scum then a lurker lynch would be best.

On June 09 2012 18:11 The_Zen_Man wrote:
Hey guys, just woke up(time difference suck).

I have read some of the grush-release discussion, and i can say that i did found Grush comment weird. Also some of his later post is also strange. I will post a analysis on him later.

But release, you are going against him to hard. You said it yourself before, that your comment is useless to anyone but grush. If it's like that, you should let others give their opinions about him, and focus on someone else for a bit.

Also, as to my opinions on lynching, i agree that in case there is a hard lurker and no scum reads we should lynch the lurker, as he is not contributing anyways. But lynching with not much information (like d1) will probably result in a misslynch. We still gain information even is there is no lynch, by observing how players act before lynch, what they vote for, reaction after lynch, etc.

On June 11 2012 04:04 s0Lstice wrote:
KtheZ is rocketing up the scum charts.

We lynch to kill scum. Period. Factoring in what information our target will give to decide our lynch candidate is ludicrous. You suggesting it is scummy.

People have already talked about your percentage nonsense, so I won't rehash beyond saying that it paints you in a very bad light. If you are aiming to get lynched, keep doing it. We want words, not numbers.

On June 11 2012 06:24 s0Lstice wrote:
Alright so the case on Zen_Man

He is taking a firm stance on grush by voting for him, and has been consistent with his views on him as I see it. He does not provide any reasoning behind his suspicions, true. He really should have. That said, the reasons for grush's scummyness have been discussed quite a lot, and agreeing with them (parroting/bandwagoning) by itself is not dead red scummy. If he agrees, he agrees. As far as his exaggerations, I feel this is under the OMGUS umbrella as well. The bottom line is I see fledgling efforts to hunt scum, and I want to see more. As of right now, he wouldn't draw my vote.

On June 12 2012 06:44 ShiaoPi wrote:
I promised some more contribution, so here are some of my thoughts regarding the entirety of day 1:

First off, sucks that we lynched our medic, but shit happens.
Let's take a alook at the entire voteswitch-process.
In the end we had 5 votes on Zen_man: Vivax, solstice, lazermonkey, ha236, grush57
Rest was distributed as following:
grush57: Zen_man, kthez,
ha236: ShiaoPi
ShiaoPi: Release

As we mislynched I believe it to be plausible to first take a look at the people who voted Zen_man.

Vivax: One of the driving forces behind the lynch, made a good case against him and said he will switch if possible --> No need to doubt him for now.

S0lstice: He had been mainly focused on ha236 and then proceeded to switch on Zen_man after more pressure was applied. As he said the following:


One could raise some eyebrows as at the moment solstice unvotes there was actually the majority on ha236 (correct me if I am wrong through). But overall he did a pretty good job on day 1 in regards to scumhunt, so does not stand out as of now.

Lazermonkey: First one to really apply pressure on Zen_man and make a case against him, entirely consistent in his stance. Also first to put down his vote on him. Nothing here as well.

ha236:
Switches in order to ensure majority on zen_man to dodge the lynch himself. Before he switched onto Zen he just went with some OMGUS votes on Releae and solstice and his general play does not give a very townie vibe of him. I am more than willing to off him come Day 2.

grush57:
He looks really bad to be honest, I hoped he would have cooked something up by now as the pressure shifted to ha236 and then to Zen, but he still delivers simple one-liners, no outlining of his thought-process make his posts at the beginning even more suspicious than they were before. Switches without much reasoning. Also a good candidate to lynch come the next day.

Now on another note I would like to alert you guys to KtheZ:
-His filter is in the beginning really full of moderating, contentless posts.
-He had that weird "lynch for info" post
-What struck me as weird is that he states to be willing to switch to ha236 but he is absent at lynchtime, so he would not have been able to fulfill that intention anyway.... His last post is about 30 mins before deadline and then he pops back in well beyond deadline, saying he was "away for a while"

It is still not enough to make me want to vote him but, I'll be keeping an eye on him
FoS:KtheZ

On June 12 2012 06:44 ShiaoPi wrote:

Now on another note I would like to alert you guys to KtheZ:
-His filter is in the beginning really full of moderating, contentless posts.
( It was more like attempting to start discussion. Without there being content in the beginning I decided to spark discussion and talk about policy.)
-He had that weird "lynch for info" post
( This "lynch for info" post was explained already to s0Lstice. The post was meant to explain what useful information would arise, after the lynch. It was not to influence the vote, more to prepare for the future. )
-What struck me as weird is that he states to be willing to switch to ha236 but he is absent at lynchtime, so he would not have been able to fulfill that intention anyway.... His last post is about 30 mins before deadline and then he pops back in well beyond deadline, saying he was "away for a while"
( There were already 5 votes on ha236 (majority) so I felt it was safe to leave.)
It is still not enough to make me want to vote him but, I'll be keeping an eye on him
FoS:KtheZ

On June 12 2012 07:59 s0Lstice wrote:
my case on KtheZ

1) His filter has a lot of garbage. He has 6 posts about nothing but policy. These lead in to 3 posts where he is basically directing traffic. He posts percentages for scum reads, sometimes accompanied with reasoning (grush), other times without reasoning (ha236).
My filter is NOT full of garbage, as you seem to insist. A beginning talk about policy was to inspire discussion when there was none. Both my percentage posts were accompanied by reasoning (I provided reasoning when I provided a percentage for ha236).

Then there is this eye-sore: Gee thanks, I put effort into that
+ Show Spoiler +

I've talked about this post some already. It's scummy as hell. Here we are bearing down on lynch time, and here he uses all these words to talk about stuff that doesn't matter in the slightest until after we see the flip. I'll say it again, this post screams 'look at me I'm being useful!'
The post was mainly about people's stances toward the two lynch-ees and their stances toward other people. I had expected either grush or ha to get lynched, so creating a post for future use would be useful.
That's the common theme to be grasped here; there is a whole lot of non-contributing contributions in his filter. By itself it could just be bad town play, but keep it in mind as we move forward.

2) Scumhunting. Let's look and see how he has been pursuing the win condition.

His strongest read is against grush57, who is far and away the easiest person to make a token case on for scum. A lot of people were on his ass for his play, and it was very easy to just blend in here. I want to look specifically at KtheZ's suspicions on grush:
+ Show Spoiler +

First thing I notice is the rambling lack of focus. He play-by-plays and takes the time to compliment Release. The important thing to notice however is his stance. He goes from 'this is a definite scum tell' Putting words into my mouth. I said that this may have been something a scum would say. to 'slighty scummy' This is the same stance I took from the beginning: That grush seems slightly scummy. to '44-55%' chance of a scum flip You said percentages were bad! But 44-55% is slightly scummy. At the end of that sequence do you really have any idea what his stance is? How does slightly scummy translate to a coin-flip scum possibility?
First off you contradict yourself by first discrediting use of percentages, and then using my own percentages as evidence against me. Slightly scummy IS that percentage scum to me. What kind of percentage would slightly scummy be in your opinion? (Of course, we shouldn't be even talking about percentages because they are "obviously anti-town".
Here's more:
+ Show Spoiler +

Extremely soft pressure. It wasn't meant to be pressure, explained next The point is poor to boot....attacking someone who has soft defended you means basically nothing. You go after your reads regardless of what their opinion of you is.
My main point was not that he was attacking someone who soft defended him. It was that grush finally attacked someone, for the first time in the thread, and I was pointing out that significance.
Following this he votes, and his vote stays put throughout the mislynch of Zen_Man.
Cause I was gone and had thought the lynch set
Now let's look at his opinions on another prominent case that was going on: ha236.




Almost no explanation for his read. Hardly a read, I pointed him out as an individual to take into note. He dances around this issue...he doesn't think ha is scummy, but will vote for him to ensure the lynch. Ok, that's fine. He doesn't stop there though. He justifies a vote for ha for an entirely different, opposing reason, by saying my and Release's arguments have swayed him enough for ha to be considered a 'reasonable second to grush.' I have no idea what his actual opinion is after this. Is he voting on one of his town-reads to ensure a lynch, or did the arguments sway him?
What? Stop making baseless assumptions. How was ha236 one of my town reads? I had readjusted my view of ha based on your arguments, as I said.
The only other thing of note is the bandwagon on The_Zen_Man. But again he doesn't come down hard on the issue, it leaves him 'suspicious enough to at least FoS him.'
Why is this of note? We had targets that were much more defined so I chose to just FoS him and leave him for later.
The bottom-line is KtheZ has taken the safe route in all of his actions so far. His firmest stance is on grush57, and as I've shown, it really isn't all that firm. He is playing it safe because he doesn't want anything to bite him in the ass later. He doesn't particularly care for hunting scum because he IS scum.
How have I taken the safe route? I was one of the people to push for a grush lynch, which is definitely scum-hunting. My stance on grush was firm, that he was "slightly scummy", but also the person most likely to be scum in my book.
3) One last point, but it's a good one. I want to point out how he behaved following Zen_Man's flip:



There, that post has some fire in it. Notice how out of place it is within the rest of his filter...it just doesn't match. Nowhere else does he really show any venom. This mismatch is a scum-tell. Scum like to come in after a mislynch and upbraid people, they feel it makes them look town. I'll even cite Ver's newbie guide, have a look:


The case he was talking about was similar to this one. A mild mannered politician like player suddenly showing up after a mislynch and being uncommonly firm, making everyone else feel guilty.
I leave for a while and somehow I return to a completely changed lynch vote? Of course I would be indignant! As you saw in my lynch info post I had no idea that a Zen_Man lynch would occur, and people just suddenly bandwagoning on him and mislynching near the deadline struck a nerve.
Summary:
-Lots of filler and pseudo-contributions in KtheZ's filter
-Politician like, inconsistant, scum-hunting. Top scumread is the easiest case in the game
-Sudden change in persona following the mislynch
Explained
I feel pretty good about this read. Release, I know you are after ha236, but please consider what I said. That goes for everyone else too, let me know what you think.

On June 13 2012 00:45 grush57 wrote:
I don't need logic when I'm Detective.

On the first day I was unwilling to look too pro-town to the mafia, because I did not want to have any potential as a target.
However, the one point I was firm on was my vote on grush, because I genuinely thought he was mafia.

On June 14 2012 11:38 Release wrote:
more summary inc:
assuming the claims are true (i'm starting to doubt them)
Kthez, Shiaopi and Lazer are town.
The remaining scum lie in myself, Ha, and Vivax.

Here is why i doubt them: Vivax has been playing better than Lazer all game (from a town perspective). A quick read tells me that much.

This makes me want to believe that Kthez or ShiaoPi, or both are the scum.


here's my question to those who didn't claim: Do you believe the claims?

To be quite honest, i feel like lynching you or lazermonkey rather than one of myself, ha, or vivax.

On June 15 2012 03:25 Release wrote:

Not only that, but the way this setup works is very vulnerable to scum claims:
we may have 0 rb 1 medic, in which our medic has died, or a 1 rb 1 medic and 1 dt

the difference in "roles" is 2, and there are exactly 2 scum alive. The rest of us are VT (in the 0 rb 1 medic) so we can't exactly argue with that. However in the 1 rb 1 medic and 1 dt, even if the real DT claiming now, we don't have a ML to use so ...

Since we only had 1 ML at the time of claiming, 2 fake claims (and in theory, 2 counterclaims) would leave us needing 2 ML to be safe, and this is the reason why that if we did have a real DT, i believe that he would've stayed silent and tried to breadcrumb us the result of his check in his posts rather than openly opposing Grush's ridiculous claim.

On June 15 2012 07:36 Release wrote:

Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides

Shiaopi + lazer + kthez
myself + ha + vivax

If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand?

Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us.

One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT.

Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different.

That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims.

What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned,

Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not)

Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned)

You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post.

Kthez, you better watch your back.

On June 15 2012 08:24 Release wrote:
Kthez
My stomach hurts from laughing so much.

On June 16 2012 06:08 Blazinghand wrote:


Actually, some games (WBG's games in particular) have a specific amount of time at the end of the night where nobody can share their night actions but people can still talk. There are different philosophies on whether or not this sort of thing is good-- it was discussed a bit in the Idea Factory (link) if you want to chip in your 2 cents.