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Emergency Mini Mafia! - Page 44

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
June 12 2012 23:13 GMT
#861
I seriously doubt claiming vig night 1 gives you a legitimate chance to win as SK -_- . We can discuss that in the postgame though.

I do admit that if he had a chance to win it would have been by providing us with scum so I'll assume he genuinely meant his case on zelblade. When I first skimmed through it though I got the impression it was mostly meta with some WIFOM and about one sentence related to how zelblade has actually been scummy this game. I'm going to have to reread it with slightly less bias later though.
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-12 23:18:45
June 12 2012 23:18 GMT
#862
Night 3


Blazinghand, the 1 time bulletproof serial killer was lynched.

22 hours, until 21:00 GMT (+00:00) to get in your night actions. One hour of night action resolution to follow in which posting is allowed but actions may not be changed. No actions will be accepted after the deadline, which again, is exactly an hour before the night deadline. Please remember to send your actions to both EchelonTee and me.

+ Show Spoiler [Final Vote Count] +
Day 3 Vote Count


Palmar (0)
Blazinghand

Blazinghand (8)
Katina
ghost_403
Navillus
zelblade
MrZentor
Shraft
Palmar
Snarfs
Artanis[Xp]

Snarfs (0)
Artanis[Xp]
Blazinghand

zelblade (2)
Blazinghand
Shraft
Katina
Profile Joined February 2012
United States454 Posts
June 13 2012 01:20 GMT
#863
Without Blazinghand spamming up the thread we can focus on finding the rest of the Mafia. Here's some thoughts on a few people.

Snarf: I don't think he has really done much, I think he has been blending in.

Palmar: I understand he just replaced in so I say give him another to day to do something.

Zelblade: He's on the list of one of the people that has done the least.

We will see what the next day brings, I would like to hear thoughts on who people find scummy.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
June 13 2012 09:16 GMT
#864
You don't get to do that btw.

Also, I need to read up on a few people.
Computer says mafia
Katina
Profile Joined February 2012
United States454 Posts
June 13 2012 17:16 GMT
#865
I don't get to post thoughts on people and ask for the other's thoughts? O.o
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
June 13 2012 19:24 GMT
#866
Shraft I'd like to know why you think I'm scum for disagreeing on the usefulness of keeping an sk but not on our reads on him. Both are disagreements about the game state that lead to the same argument from my side, I just disagree with you about the results of keeping an sk alive, especially because we didn't have any strong counter candidates so would likely lynch green instead of black. Also as a side note my finalday of school is ending so I should have more time here on.
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
June 13 2012 19:34 GMT
#867
All actions are due in 1.5 hours at 21:00 GMT (+00:00). Night will end in 2.5 hours.
Shraft
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden701 Posts
June 13 2012 20:03 GMT
#868
On June 14 2012 04:24 Navillus wrote:
Shraft I'd like to know why you think I'm scum for disagreeing on the usefulness of keeping an sk but not on our reads on him. Both are disagreements about the game state that lead to the same argument from my side, I just disagree with you about the results of keeping an sk alive, especially because we didn't have any strong counter candidates so would likely lynch green instead of black. Also as a side note my finalday of school is ending so I should have more time here on.

You said you didn't care about BH's alignment, which is something that mafia would say. If you believe his SK claim, there is no way to justify killing him from a town perspective. As long as we are in a bad position, he would've acted just like a regular townie. There is no reason for town to lynch him instead of trying to lynch mafia.

MrZentor
Profile Joined December 2010
United States1648 Posts
June 13 2012 20:11 GMT
#869
I was so sure he was mafia. >.<
Falling’s just like flying, except there’s a more permanent destination.
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
June 13 2012 21:49 GMT
#870
On zelblade, there are two things that make me think that he's the best chance at hitting scum we have tomorrow (that have happened in this game, much of what blazinghand said in his case was meta and I think Artanis showed just how biased meta can be):

The first one was the wishy washy post where he ends up voting blazinghand. BH and Artanis have discussed this already and I agree with them that there seemed to be quite a bit of cognitive dissonance between his thoughts and his vote.
For reference, the post is here: [click]

The second thing I noticed when reading zelblade was his strange insistence that claiming that there are 4 mafia in the game was a reason to lynch furerkip. Zelblade's reasoning wasn't that furer had scumslipped, but rather that furer had claimed that something was in the OP when it wasn't. This misrepresents what furer said though as he doesn't claim anywhere that it says in the OP that there are 4 mafia.:

First he tries to push the idea that furer claimed that it listed 4 mafia in the OP even though that's not what ghost says. ghost claims that "It could be an extrapolation, or it could be a scumslip". I personally don't think that scum would ever blatantly lie and believe that furer was guessing the number of scum based on the number of roles available. I find it very hard to believe that anyone actually thought he was saying that it literally says in the OP that there were 4 max scum:
On June 06 2012 22:49 zelblade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2012 22:40 ghost_403 wrote:
The post that I had originally thought was most scummy from Furer was this one. I don't like the fact that he says he's going to back off on VE since no one is jumping on his bandwagon. However, upon further reflection, I think he did exactly what I would have done in the situation: state that he still thought VE was scummy and move on to doing something else. I don't think that he's nearly as scummy after giving it further thought.

This post still bothers me a little:
On June 05 2012 07:38 furerkip wrote:
If you are wondering where I got 4 from, it's from the maximum amount of mafia as you can see on the 1st page.

I've checked the first page, and it doesn't say how many scum are in the game. It could be an extrapolation, or it could be a scumslip. If he does flip scum, I would assume that there are either four scum total, or, more likely, three scum and a serial killer.

I still don't like his stances on mislynches outside of LYLO, but that could be easily attributed to him learning to play outside of TL.

tl;dr: I was wrong, and my read on him has gone from scum to null.


Wait what?

I took his word for it and didnt check the OP -_-

I dont think that him claiming that there was 4 scum is scummy since its a somewhat plausible assumption and may be the norm where he plays, but him lying about it being in the op is just...

Then, zelblade attempts to gain support from other players for a furer lynch. He hardly tries to pressure furer at all and is waiting for others to jump on the wagon first:
On June 06 2012 22:52 zelblade wrote:
I am actually willing to lynch furekip based on that alone. As said, there is no townie reasoning possible to lie about something like that. Sure scumslips are usually made by townies but I dont think that they would lie about their reasoning like this. The only problem with this is that it is so dumb as mafia too -_-

So furekip why did you lie about it?

He then continues to try and push furerkip for the next 3 days even though he has clearly disappeared from the game and would be perfect scum bait for a mislynch:
On June 07 2012 17:50 zelblade wrote:
Also I want to lynch furekip if he doesnt give a good explanation for lying about the mafia team numbers thing.

On June 10 2012 11:13 zelblade wrote:
Well at least this flip gives us quite a decent bit of info.

Furekip and bh should be our next 2 lynches.


Thoughts?
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
June 13 2012 21:52 GMT
#871
Shraft he would have acted just like a regular townie that in endgame wants to kill us and has a night shot that will likely hit town the fact is he had to die at some point, maybe maybe it would have been better to kill him later and mafia sooner, but that's assuming that the option was as simple as him or mafia, not him or maybe mafia maybe town we're not really sure. It's not as simple as I don't care about his alignment, it's he can be 1 of 2 things, both anti-town, and the alternative is not very good at all.
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
June 13 2012 21:55 GMT
#872
Navillus, what do you think of zelblade? Who do you propose we lynch should you die tonight?
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-13 22:01:58
June 13 2012 22:00 GMT
#873
Day 4

[image loading]


The serial killer lay dead, a victim of his own design. The terror in the city could not be stopped though. As the people slumbered, a new group arose. Eager to consolidate their power, they hunted those who still fought back.

Katina, the Roleblocker, was thrown off a high-rise.

There are 48 hours left till the lynch. With 8 players alive, it takes five to lynch.
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
June 13 2012 22:06 GMT
#874
##Vote zelblade
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
June 13 2012 22:13 GMT
#875
Navillus, ghost, Palmar and MrZentor all need to get in here and give their thoughts on zelblade.

Hell, Shraft, you didn't even give your thoughts on him, you just said we should lynch the hell out of him then linked his filter and BH's case. So you agree 100% with BH's case and that's it?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 13 2012 22:39 GMT
#876
Can't say I saw that shot coming. I was expecting myself, Snarfs or Shraft to get shot. Guess they got a blue read on her somehow, or her reads were making sense. Regardless, zelblade's case is still the strongest by far to me. It was also made by Blazinghand whom was doing anything he could to stay alive and is as unaware of factions as we are, so his case can be seen as legit in that regard. It also raised some good points regarding his behavior.
##Vote: Zelblade
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
June 13 2012 23:39 GMT
#877
I'm waiting to see what zelblade has to say for himself.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
June 13 2012 23:48 GMT
#878
On June 14 2012 08:39 ghost_403 wrote:
I'm waiting to see what zelblade has to say for himself.

Let's hypothesize for a second that he doesn't return to the thread for the remainder of the two day period.

What would your course of action be?
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
June 14 2012 00:06 GMT
#879
Lynching an AFK player during MYLO is probably not the best idea.

On the other hand, the town caught a scum Bluelightz during Aperture mafia, and his course of action was simply to leave.

I don't think there's enough to lynch him right now, but I do want his explanation for his actions. BH was right, he has been sheeping pretty hard this game. I don't yet know if that's par for the course with him or not. I need some more time to read over his previous games (PYP:Redux, where he rolls scum, and MTGMM, where he rolls town) before I make a decision on what exactly his play this game means.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Shraft
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden701 Posts
June 14 2012 01:25 GMT
#880
On June 14 2012 06:52 Navillus wrote:
Shraft he would have acted just like a regular townie that in endgame wants to kill us and has a night shot that will likely hit town the fact is he had to die at some point, maybe maybe it would have been better to kill him later and mafia sooner, but that's assuming that the option was as simple as him or mafia, not him or maybe mafia maybe town we're not really sure. It's not as simple as I don't care about his alignment, it's he can be 1 of 2 things, both anti-town, and the alternative is not very good at all.

It's true that the choice is not between him and mafia (if it was, there would be no need to argue this), but the chances of hitting scum is very high. Before we lynched BH, there was 10 players alive, which results in a 30 % chance of hitting scum if we lynched someone other than BH by just randomly voting for another player. (If we had some one who most people had a town read on randomly choose a target, the chance of hitting scum would be 37.5 % assuming the "town-read"-person is town.) Factor in analysis, and the chance of us hitting scum goes even higher. Besides, even if we accidentally lynch a townie, the difference between lynching a townie and BH would not be that significant. I'd choose the option of lynching someone other than BH any day of the week. (Say for example we lynch furerkips/Palmar and he turns out to be town, we'd have one less player with little content to analyze to worry about.)

On June 14 2012 07:13 Snarfs wrote:
Navillus, ghost, Palmar and MrZentor all need to get in here and give their thoughts on zelblade.

Hell, Shraft, you didn't even give your thoughts on him, you just said we should lynch the hell out of him then linked his filter and BH's case. So you agree 100% with BH's case and that's it?

My initial suspicion of zelblade is outlined in this post. After that he made the post that BH pointed out where he makes his subtle attempt at getting town credibility, along with a couple of other short posts. Then he makes this post where he first explains why BH's claim makes no sense from a scum perspective, then says that Hyaach has given him scum vibes since the start of the game and that his claim makes sense as scum and that it is "definitely possible" that his claim is fake, yet he still proceeds to vote for BH because Hyaach's recent posts had a "fearless aura". It seems weird to me that he'd believe a claim that he thinks makes sense as scum, especially when it comes from a player that has given him scum vibes since the start of the game, just because of the fearless aura in Hyaach's recent posts. Scum often have more trouble than townies with explaining their reasoning, and often end up making strange posts when explaining their vote.

BH's meta-case on zelblade, along with his follow-up strengthened my belief that zelblade was scum, and I think that he is our best chance of lynching scum today.

##Vote zelblade
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