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Pick Your Poison Mafia
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
We'll probably have to use it eventually since it looks like one of the least mafia-favored poisons on the list. I don't mind the mafia +1 secret vote as well, as long as we find out where it went after lynch. If we choose the secret vote for mafia option, do we find out where the vote went after the lynch? | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
That option becomes more mafia favored as the days go on, getting to the point where it's an auto loss in any lylo situation. If we think we can win without using all the options then we should never consider that and use the most town favored ones. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On May 30 2012 12:24 slOosh wrote: WBG could you explain how we should approach the use of the mayoral lynch poison when/should we use it? like personally I have two ideas: Either we ignore the +1 vote to majority thing (so we basically aim to win the game before day 6) so we choose the relatively "weaker" poisons before then, OR We choose the "stronger" poisons that kick in real hard later early, and use things like the mayor election later. The mayor election puts a lot of power into the hands of one player. In a game of this size it might not be a terrible thing to do on like day 2 or day 3 if we would go for the second route; i..e. choose something like +1 to majority on day 1 so that we can't auto-lose at lylo. Then, when we have a better sense of who is town, we use the mayor thing d2 or d3. Sure, it means a player who appears town is far more likely to get shot early on (so that they are not available for the mayor election), but it's nice to pigeonhole mafia moves because that makes them easier to predict. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
If we are to use the secret vote it should be on days where we have an even number of players alive. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
guess it doesn't matter when we use secret vote really then. Probably earlier the better. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
This is a pick your poison game, which means people are most inclined to use their own views about the game setup to choose roles for the other side. Radfield is apparently of the opinion that the roleblocker is not scary because it ensures we get checks off (if there's an investigative role) or he's lying and he's scum. There are reasons I think roleblocker is the strongest role for mafia. For one, it stops claims dead in their tracks. If you have a tracker claim, as scum you don't have to kill the claimer if you have a roleblocker. Scum will never choose vigi or innocent child for us. That's pretty much out of the question. They'll choose between the other 3 roles, and at that point it's completely up to personal preference. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On May 31 2012 05:51 prplhz wrote: I'm going to vote for the secret hidden vote. I think that will be more useful in close races and I don't think that day1 will be two bandwagons, but a single person who will be up for lynch and then we'll see if we can get enough votes for him. @wherebugsgo What claims will roleblocker stop? You say that scum can just role block a tracker if he claims and they will not have to kill him, but they don't have to kill him with godfather either. The good thing is that we can trust investigative roles. You say that scum will never choose vigilante or innocent child, but will they ever choose 1-shot cop or tracker if we give them a role blocker? If not, then we will actually get at least one of those roles you say they'll never give us which is good. If they do, then we can trust their results, 1-shot cop would pretty much claim day2 and scum will not be able to kill him 'cause then they'd confirm his check. If we give them a role blocker then tracker shouldn't even claim unless he's got something juicy. What role do you think we should give scum? truly I don't think it matters. Godfather might be the strongest role for scum in the setup based on tracker + 1 shot cop stuff. I'd rather give scum framer or roleblocker. Framer is at the very least limited use and roleblocker is a bit more unreliable and forces scum to do more work. What's stopping them from picking both one shot cop and tracker? I think that's what scum will choose, or something like medic+tracker or medic+one shot cop. I really doubt they'll ever choose innocent child or vigilante. I think they'd only choose vigilante if they're confident in being able to get the vigi to shoot at townies, but I don't think that's likely. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
my bad guys, I was intending to vote the majority + 1 option. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Kurumi's meta is troll as town and play serious as scum. Obviously that makes him scum this game. Toad is playing too carefully to be town. He has elements of his normal self centered-ness but usually he at least calls people out. Instead he seems to be worried he'll get called out for "not caring" like I was, when if he was town he'd probably not go that far. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Kurumi is literally the easiest person on this forum to meta analyze. Any time he is town he's laid back and he doesn't care what he posts. He trolls, links videos, TF2 memes, etc. He is not cryptic as town but tries to be funny. I think his more recent scum game was jubjub, but I didn't read much of it. There was a game I caught him this way when I was town, and then there was AC where I used that tactic as scum to nail Kurumi as 3rd party. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I agree with Radfield that Kurumi's aggressiveness based on that singular point is strange and makes him less likely to be mafia. However the meta still agrees, even with the game Kurumi linked. In the beginning of Space Station you can see the tone of Kurumi's posts is much more laid back than here. I disagree with a Sbrubbles lynch for now because I think the way he has discussed things is not scummy. His tone seems more like a townie talking about setup mechanics than a scum. Navillus looks pretty bad, given that he seems to have no opinions of his own regarding the lynch. Toad I'm a bit unsure of as he's posted more. Of these players I think a Navillus lynch might be the most productive and likely to flip a scum. ##unvote ##vote Navillus | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Navillus not having played scum is not an argument against him being scum. Secondly, I didn't even notice him calling me out. I think most of the players by now have probably noted that I've not been around much. That's due to me sleeping or probably also because I'm in multiple games. So your argument against lynching Navillus is that new scum don't do scummy things? Lol what? Besides, he's not new anyway. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Your argument in his defense is impeccable. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I don't usually post what I like about people's posts, but for Sbrubbles it's these two posts: On June 01 2012 05:13 Sbrubbles wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 04:25 prplhz wrote: So you are saying that we can trust all checks even with framer around because it only has a slim chance of working? Framer is a role that works even when they don't use it successfully, just like medic. Your second argument "if they get two blue reads in a day" then they can neutralize them both with roleblocker. What are the odds of them getting two correct bluereads in one day? Even if they did, without roleblocker they could just kill one and then kill the other. Tracker, in my opinion, is the weakest town role overall (worse than 1-shot cop), but it's worse, not better, against a roleblocker than against a framer around. Framer is very unlikely to mess up a tracker early on (though yeah, it's possible), but if a roleblocker is around mafia have the option of discrediting the tracker by leaving him alive and roleblocking him (if he didn't manage to convince town of his check). He'll be still alive but roleblocked, which means chaos for the following day. Also, remember that framer is only 2 shot. + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 19:02 Radfield wrote: Then you don't know me very well Zephridd I skim read all the time, and I do mean all the time. The strength of my play is that I go back and reread many times, and filter everyone many times. Knowing when you can skim and when you need to pay attention is something every good player utilizes, particularly when time is short. Yesterday I had points I wanted to make, and not enough time to do it in(particularly in the morning, when I didn't even finish my post).I obviously picked roleblocker. Anyways, the reason we publicly wanted roleblocker is that we desperately want a medic in this setup, and mafia knowing they are getting roleblocker dramatically increases the odds of us getting one. Consider that pretty much every single mini game ever has the potential for town to have a medic/jailkeeper/etc, the reason for this being that even the threat of having a protective role means mafia can't just shoot whomever they want, whenever they want. You guys are talking as if mafia having the roleblocker is dangerous because they can roleblock any blue claims, but that makes no sense. If we have no medic, mafia don't need to roleblock, they just shoot claimers in the face. If there is no medic in the setup, then roleblocker is an almost completely useless role for mafia. Think someone is blue? Shoot them in the face. Someone claims? Shoot them in the face. The reason that we have a much better chance of getting a medic by choosing roleblocker is that cop and tracker are far and away the worst roles for town in this setup, especially considering that mafia might get gf/framer. Tracker is especially bad, because of the fact that mafia get to choose which one performs the kill, and will always pick whomever is the most town, making the role almost useless unless the tracker holds his abilities until lategame. By picking roleblocker and mafia knowing it, they will likely shy away from giving us the information roles, and instead give us 2 of Vig/Medic/IC. However even if they give us one of those roles and the tracker, the one role they will probably give us is the medic, as I don't think most people realize how important it is to have a medic in a small setup. Again, having a medic is very important for us, because a medic doesn't even have to make a save and can still turn the tide of a game by forcing mafia to shoot away from the most obvious/strong townies. Picking roleblocker gave us the highest chance of getting that medic. Did players who became power roles KNOW they were going to be power roles before day 1? Or were they given the exact same vanilla PM as all the other players @Radfield, I was thinking about this before my vote. If they knew we were going to get medic, they'd want a roleblocker (to prevent town going into follow-the-confirmed-townie mode), but it doesn't necessarily work the other way around. Them knowing the we picked roleblocker doesn't make it that they'd give us a medic. Tracker/vig or tracker/cop are perfectly reasonable combinations. A Roleblocker is essencially a second "blue snipe" for them, because they'll have a really good idea of if they got their block right. This about this: If cop doesn't claim day 2 they'll know they got their N1 block right. If a tracker claims but isn't convincing, they can do as I said above. If they gave us vig, then 1 kill in the night means they blocked correctly and would eliminate the vig the following night. On June 01 2012 21:09 Sbrubbles wrote: Kurumi's case on Radfield is based on the assumption that roleblocker is hand-down the worst role to give mafia. Though I partially agree with him (I voted for framer), I don't agree it's an obvious thing. The way Rad argue it was decent and well-reasoned. The case on Kurumi is partly based on his meta and I don't trust cases built solely on meta. What is interesting is that he makes his whole argument with basis on game mechanics (better yet, his opinions on game mechanics), which would be the "safest" way for mafia to be pushing for a mislynch at D1. It feels a bit scummy, but I'm still mostly null on him. I'm very suspicious of HiroPro right now. His GF vote doesn't make sense to me from a town perspective and I'm not convinced on his Zephirdd push. The only problem is that Sbrubbles hasn't voted, but I don't think a scum would make posts like these. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On June 02 2012 06:07 slOosh wrote: WBG please answer my first question: Why are you pigeonholing the lynch choices into these three (referring to Kurumi, Sbrubbles and Navillus) and picking the most scummiest out of them rather than gauging each player individually as scummy or not? There is nothing to indicate that there is or isn't a scum in that group of three. because on day 1 you want to lynch the scummiest person. Actually, on every day you want to lynch the guy most likely to flip scum. I'm not pigeonholing the lynch but rather giving the choices I'd be fine with. Risk nuke is not included because I haven't read his posts. I'll do that now. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I think Zephirdd is the only lynch with enough momentum to make it to deadline, unless we can get a switch to someone like navillus or risk. Risk does look very bad as I've just read his posts. I'd be fine with lynching him if no one is interested in lynching Navillus (and he looks worse than Navillus anyway) | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I'm glad we're killing navillus and not hiropro though, I didn't really see the argument for him being scum. Sure, voting godfather is scummy but other than that it didn't seem like a case existed on him. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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wherebugsgo
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Good news is that it sheds a lot of light on the alignment of the sheepers. I'll be doing some rereading and will post my thoughts before deadline. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I think the middle voters are probably (as usual) the most fruitful avenues for further prodding. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Basically what happened was that d0 and d1 I had a couple of dentist appointments (and I was also in other games) I ended up having dental surgery and I forgot to vote in my novocaine coma-like state. The surgery was done last minute following my routine appointment. Only time free within this month I guess, lol. (before I fly back to Cal I suppose) Anyway as people have mentioned usually on d1 I'm just trying to get a foothold. My d1 is almost always terrible because I tend to pressure people for the wrong reasons. I'm glad it all worked out though, particularly that I took a bullet. VT like me taking a bullet is far more useful than someone like Radfield or a power role taking a bullet. I think mafia honestly should have evaluated carefully what roles they picked. I would've chosen medic and probably tracker. This reduces the possibilities for confirming players. With innocent child you know someone will confirm themselves. With cop you have the potential for 2 confirmations. Vigi is just a bit too risky. The reason I would've picked medic is because it's an often misplayed role. You can leave alive stronger townies sometimes and create situations in which town doubt themselves despite excellent play on their part. WoF mafia with the Ace+Forumite+VE scumteam proved that IMO. The worst thing for a scumteam is a confirmed townie. Trackers can't confirm anyone, and only skilled medics can confirm. Inno child is free, cop is practically 2 free, and vigi is big swing. Pick your poison indeed :p great hosting, thanks for the very nice setup. | ||
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