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United States310 Posts
@ Unforgiven
You're half-assing your posting. I've got RL complications and I can still find time to get in the thread and contribute. It's not slipped my mind that you may have bussed suki D1. If heist flips green, which is unlikely but possible, my attention will be turning towards you. You've still got a little less than 24 hours left in the day cycle to commit to some kind of reads.
@ Xatalos
I've outlined my opinions on heist and ShiaoPi. Right now I would imagine heist is staying out of the thread so as not to reveal much more information to us. It's just confirming my suspicions against him more and more. The case on ShiaoPi leans a little bit on how heist flips but not entirely. If he's scum Golden's play set him up pretty badly. If heist is a mislynch I'm considering Unforgiven, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi and you as all possible scum.
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United States310 Posts
@ Eishi_Ki
I'd love to hear from you on just about anything. Post your reads please. With the information we've gained from the N2 kill what are your opinions on heist? I realize you have RL things going on as well but please give us some information/reads we can hold you to.
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United States310 Posts
@ Unforgiven
I realized that I've been holding too many people in suspicion. My thoughts have been something like this, "It makes sense for X to be scum and it makes sense for Y to be scum, but Z seems scummy too. If Z is scum then X and Y can't possibly be scum." It's really difficult for me to make any headway if I keep thinking like that. Right now the best case is against heist and it makes sense for ShiaoPi to be his scumbuddy. I'll be reassessing the thread as soon as we see heist flip. Do I find some of Xatalos's play scummy? Sure, but I also find parts of Eishi_Ki's and ShiaoPi's, as well as your own, play scummy too. You can't all be scum so I need to start sticking to a few assumptions.
My folks are back in town and taking care of my sister. She only had a few minor injuries from the crash so that won't be weighing on my mind as much.
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United States310 Posts
Seriously!? Where is everybody?
I'm getting some sleep. We've got 3 out of 7 people actually posting at this point. Pretty pathetic. Give me something to come back to town.
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United States310 Posts
Was away for a bit.
If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts?
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United States310 Posts
@ ShiaoPi
We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote.
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United States310 Posts
@ ShiaoPi
Why not? Lynch all lurkers is a policy. The only reason I can see is that you're afraid of how he'll flip.
@ austinmcc
If heist is scum then we're pretty much set on ShiaoPi being scum. Please vote for heist. If Eishi_Ki is town like I think he is, then our only hope of winning this game is by ensuring a heist lynch.
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United States310 Posts
@ austinmcc
Heist is back at the most convenient possible time for scum. Do you not see how obvious the heist + ShiaoPi scum team is right now?
@ heist
If you really are town and had to move, I'm sorry. You didn't really leave us much choice in this matter.
My vote will not be moving from heist. He's scum. ShiaoPi's scum.
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United States310 Posts
Well this seems easy. Think about how close scum were to winning the game. ShiaoPi's play makes sense in that light.
Thanks for the switch austinmcc. I know it was a tough call.
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United States310 Posts
GG heist. You nearly had me convinced 
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United States310 Posts
It's simple Unforgiven, ShiaoPi was hoping to win the game after this lynch period. If Eishi_Ki was scum and we mislynch, then scum win because after the night kill we would be at 2 town and 2 scum. ShiaoPi was trying really hard for the mislynch because he wanted the scum win.
@ ShiaoPi
I have to admit that you were really close. At this point there is nothing you can do to convince me you aren't scum. If I were you I would just admit defeat now, but even if you don't I will still come after you if I'm alive come day cycle.
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United States310 Posts
EBWOP: Since Eishi_Ki was town and likely getting modkilled.
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United States310 Posts
I literally cannot make this any simpler for you. Normally I would wait until the night deadline to post this, but I may not be around then so I am posting this now.
Scum nearly had this game won. If we mislynched and both scum survived we would have lost. ShiaoPi was just about to win the game, he was trying to force town players into a decision between him +heist vs. you + Xatalos. Luckily austinmcc made the correct call. One of us is dying tonight. If it's me I hope you will make the correct move and lynch ShiaoPi.
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United States310 Posts
@ austinmcc
I think you're spot on in your assessment of D1. I'll be making a post right before the deadline of why it's extremely unlikely some players are scum and who I think is the correct lynch candidate given the information we have now.
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United States310 Posts
Here are my reads on players, since I think I'm likely getting killed tonight.
Austinmcc/Ange777: Town- Ange777 came back into the D1 lynch discussion with an interesting choice. There was a lot of momentum for either an Unforgiven or a suki lynch. A D1 scum lynch is usually really bad for scum. I have a hard time believing that Ange would come back and bus suki D1 if she were scum. This read makes Ange/Austin confirmed town in my opinion.
Unforgiven: Town- He's become confirmed town to me even though his attitude towards the game and posting content has been really bad. I'm reading him as egoistic townie and not scum. He started pressure on suki, he supported lynching heist. If he were scum he could have sheeped behind ShiaoPi's pressure on Xatalos and either forced a mislynch or a no-lynch. This is directed at you Unforgiven. All of your cases have been OMGUS. Look outside your ego and figure out what's actually been going on in the thread. You've given me the impression that you think this game revolves around you. It doesn't. Please use your brain.
Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list)
- He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play.
- He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move.
- He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
ShiaoPi: Scum- He defended both suki and heist. There is definite motive for this. The game is balanced around the typical D1 mislynch so D1 scum lynch is really bad for scum. I can easily see scum panicking and defending each other under such a stressful situation. During the D3 lynch discussion he heavily defended heist. He even defended him despite (sort of) agreeing with me on heist's suspicious disappearance.Yes, heist disappearance is weird (and fucking frustrating) but still I can't vote off one of my townreads just based on lack of activity... Notice how he tries to deflect attention from my original point ---snip
His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? that heist's timing for his sudden disappearance was really suspicious. Instead he uses the words weird and frustrating. If he's town there is no reason to disregard and draw attention away from the fact that heist's play was at least a bit suspicious (it was). His play reeks of scum defending scum and not town defending scum. I won't retread the same points that other players have made besides saying the case against ShiaoPi/Golden is solid. If I'm alive in a few minutes I will stand by it. If I'm dead I hope you all will take note.
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United States310 Posts
I'm not dead? Well I guess this isn't too surprising either. I can see ShiaoPi doing this to try and convince us that Xatalos is mafia and is trying to force a ShiaoPi mislynch. I can also see Xatalos making the same play to get rid of the only flimsy player. It all ends in... you guessed it... WIFOM!!!
Sticking with my read just like I said I would.
##Vote: ShiaoPi
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United States310 Posts
Is there a way we can shorten the day cycle? I'm not going to change my vote.
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United States310 Posts
EBWOP:Once we get enough votes for a lynch of course.
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United States310 Posts
@ ShiaoPi
I must admit that my status as confirmed townie came about more because of circumstance than actual good play on my part. My reads weren't always great and I did follow other players leads a few times. You're grasping at straws here though.
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United States310 Posts
He might be prepping the post. We gotta send this game out with a bit of pomp and circumstance don'cha know.
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EPT
