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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
skware votes on release golden votes on milton milton votes on golden solstice votes on golden Shiaopi votes on golden I vote on golden Release votes on golden So the totals are Release (1): Skware Milton (1) O.Golden_ne O.Golden_ne (5): everyone else | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
@Release: baiting a mafia kp is probably the dumbest thing you can do. It makes your accusation seem like something that you wrote up just to pressure one player, and if it gains no information. Whether Milton is actually scum or not is not shown by baiting a kp. If he is, letting you live might make him seem more like town. If he isn't though, killing him might make the obvious case be against milton. On the other hand, If he's scum killing you would silence pressure against him. And if he's not scum, letting you live could also add to the conspiracy. It all leads to massive WIFOM, bringing confusion to the town. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
That is literally the most frustrating thing. It makes the game come down to whether we blindly trust him or blindly lynch him, and what his actual role is. It's hard to make one's self care about the game when, after all of this, it comes down to dumb luck. If skware is replaced, then his replacement is accountable for nothing. Nothing at all. He has two players before him whom he can easily say ignored the game, and WIFOM up any accusation made against him. What are your thoughts about this release? | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 22 2012 09:25 Mufaa wrote: I was Mafia in XIII and the amount of lurkers in a 12 person game ruined it. We won after a misread by the vig n3 because 2 of the mafia lurked all 3 days and so did 2 townies and he guessed wrong. If we want to find the scum we need as much content out of everyone as possible. More content means more room for mafia mistakes while townies can't make a mistake if they're being honest. On May 23 2012 00:30 Release wrote: We need to start panicking if no one votes and it is a short time before the deadline. This is textbook no lynch territory. In this case, we need to start piling our votes on one candidate who has appeared the most scummy. Worst case scenario, we look at lurkers and choose to lynch one of them. Still, we need more information, especially because this is Day1 and we only have some 8 hours left and no concrete scum yet. On May 23 2012 04:45 Release wrote: + Show Spoiler + On May 23 2012 01:29 hegeo wrote: Sciberbia bringing the heat via analysis, I like it. Hey Release, some thoughts about your posts, and why I think you're not always helping town with them: a) Even though I understand where you're coming from, this is kind of pseudo-pressuring people, which is futile in the beginning of the game. This makes for an anti-town-atmosphere, since posting should be encouraged. b) It's not the best case to lynch lurkers, but if they don't contribute to town then it is at least good riddance. c) You are posting at least a considerable amount of non-productive posts right now, e.g. to this post... ... your answer was this: You consistently do this "#FOS"-stuff and then, you FOS Sciberibia... ..before even un##FOSing Mordanis: To answer in your own words: Even though there are many players that have a way shorter filter than you, what you do is generating "noise" (not always, you have your points that I can agree with and you definitely contribute). It seems as though you either just want to stir up anything you can (because both of these #FOSes came to nothing, which would make you a little scummy) or I read it as an overly motivated try to get information. Response to a) my point was that contributing useless information is worse than having no contribution at all. My example was Sciberia's asking the same question twice, which has since, been given some clarification. b) Lynching a lurker is not "good riddance". I don't see why a townie should feel that way. Lynching a lurker (if there are more than one) is random to a townie, but clear to the mafia. The mafia will obviously choose the lurker whom is a townie, therefore causing us to mislynch. Advocating a lurker lynch instead of focusing on those who are suspicious is a Mafia's way of thinking. In fact, you don't even list some alternative, despite it not being a best case scenario. + Show Spoiler + c)my answer was this: "My point is that Townies can make mistakes, but townies don't make slips. Mafia make can make mistakes; usually their mistake is to make a slip. I want to make that very clear. We shouldn't end up lynching for a mistake. We should lynch someone who makes a slip." From Newbie II game + Show Spoiler + Probulous got a AKCT lynched. That was a mistake. He was clearly contributing so even though he made a mistake, he shouldn't get lynched. (he didn't) Sheth however, does slip in trying to save his scumbuddy and got lynched for that. this was in support of the above point i made. Your c) and reasoning behind are Blatant Lies; you intentionally leave out my actual point to make it seem like i am posting filler. If i didn't know better, you know that i am town, and see that i am dangerous to your scum motives. You are targeting me with a weak case based on incomplete evidence. In regard to the FOS before unFOS, i did it to show that i was putting both of them under suspicion. There are 3 mafia. I only had 2. Are you seriously trying to convince to to avoid the larger picture and completely ignore anyone (other than the person who i am targeting at the moment) who might be Mafia? The FOS's got people talking. Talking is good for the town. Again, this is an example of where you completely ignore the larger picture. "overly motivated try to get information." All townies want information. After all, we don't know much. You however, seem perfectly content to let this day slip by without extracting a lot of information from it (presumably because you already have the information because you are scum). I see no other option as of yet (or until you reply) but to: ##Vote: Hegeo And some other times we've said that lynching a lurker is really only an option if we don't have another case. As long as we don't all fall off the face of the earth, everyone but skware/Mufaa will be much more likely to be lynched than the person who hasn't posted basically at all. And even more importantly, we've already agreed to do just that. I'm thinking that we need to at least seriously consider skware as a candidate for being lynched. It is annoyingly luck-based, but so is not lynching him at this point. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Here's even more evidence. Skware started out fairly actively, and posted pretty good analysis for someone who had just looked at the thread for the first time. He posts 3 semi-analytical posts in about 8 hours, and then claims that he will be inactive for a while due to sleep and work. Then he posts nothing more save a seemingly random vote for Release. The way I see it, he was fairly active in pointing out the things he saw until he read through the first few pages and found out that we would only "pressure" lurkers by maybe occasionally voting for one for a few hours, or putting a FOS on them, or even "being more suspicious" of them. That last part is sort of WIFOM, but I think we can agree that the facts seem suspicious. He is active, and when he gets time to analyze the thread, he disappears. And we said that we wouldn't lynch a lurker unless there isn't a better case. What are everyone else's thoughts? | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
suddenly you seem to have remembered your case on ShiaoPi after the lynch. Why not keep pushing his case until the very end if you actually believed that he was scum? . This seems an awful lot like your play (with your case against Milton being "forgotten" by your cases on Hegeo and Golden), and yet you seem to think it is very scummy. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 29 2012 04:06 Release wrote: All that stuff i posted before this moment: Pure Bullshit. Milton, plz, if you are able to read this in time, don't go wasting your time defending yourself. I made that case by concluding that every single action = scum. Don't respond to that. Go build a case on someone else. Do you see how this is ambiguous? It could mean through the entire game, through N2, or just what you've written D3, or anything in between. Don't blame me for misinterpreting when you aren't clear. Actually, why are you being so defensive? So far this cycle you've voted for two people and and said that you're trying to manipulate the game. And everything you've said against me is basically "OMGUS, you disagreed with me. OMGUS, you misinterpreted me.". Post real analysis. One more thing: On May 29 2012 05:56 Release wrote: Come on. Read. I just said that the post was bullshit. Now you're trying to quote my bullshit and turn it into evidence against me. I said it was bullshit, it is bullshit. It was purely for the "bait." This last post really doesn't make you shine townie in my eyes. Which was it? In the first post I quoted, you say that every one of Milton's actions was scummy. In the second post you say your accusation was bullshit. Which is it? | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 28 2012 05:16 Release wrote: i think your defense is shit. Do it again, properly, or My vote is going to be on you and is not going to change unless some claims to be sum with a case on themselves. + Show Spoiler + On May 24 2012 02:54 Miltonkram wrote: Regarding people's suspicions of me. I've already explained my line of reasoning. My pressure on s0Lstice was a mistake on my part, simple as that. I'm willing to switch my vote on Mufaa, since I think he will be replaced/modkilled. All people had been saying up to that point in time amounted to, "Mufaa, we'd really like to hear from you." I wanted to see if he would make a response to some real pressure. I think we can agree that voting for someone is the most pressure you can put on them. At the time I was trying to do two things at once, pressure ShiaoPi and pressure Mufaa. I guess I didn't make it clear what I was doing. Also, I hadn't considered this: He's guaranteed to be lynched D2 if he does pop in to vote, so I won't concern myself with him anymore. My top scumread is still ShiaoPi. Essentially, he plays scum exactly how I would. His entire D1 posts have been pretty wishy-washy and noncommittal, allowing him freedom later in the game because he hasn't actually tied himself strongly to the information or accusations in any of his posts. With that in mind let's look at his first post. + Show Spoiler + Just came back from university. First of all we should definetly go for a lynch, no-lynch is (at least in my opinion) utter nonsense. Regarding Lurkers, I believe that they should be put under suspicion especially in a 9 player setup. I was in the same game as mufaa and lurking screwed us over pretty badly in a 13 player game. I must say I really like release's approach until now, we won't get anything worthwhile from just being nice to each other. Pressuring is a great way to get some more information and should be utilizied. The only slightly suspicious thing until now was sciberbia's long post and his absence since then, but until he responds there is nothing to make of it. Here's what he does, he compliments the most active player early on (Release) and talks about playstyle. Then he adds some weak suspicions toward sciberbia. Suspicion that he can easily back down from, and that certainly isn't breaking any new ground. Wait, doesn't this sound a lot like another early post? + Show Spoiler + Release- I like the way you're starting out this game. If we are going to catch scum we need to be aggressive about it. Don't worry too much about the tone of your posts. sciberbia's post does seem a bit suspicious. He repeats his ideas several times in different ways to make it look like he's putting out more info than he actually is. It seems quite scummy to me. Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say. sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary. That's right, his entire first post is a rehash of one of my first posts. A post I made before him. If my first post wasn't breaking any new ground, his certainly wasn't. It seems a good way to blend in with the crowd without sticking his neck out there. He goes on to immediately back down from his pressure with this post. + Show Spoiler + Maybe I should have rephrased my post on the suspicions towards you Sciberbia: I was not that much concerned about your absence but just on the amount of seemingly "useless" things within the post. Don't see anything wrong with your elaborations on it now. Here we get the first taste of ShiaoPi's tactic. He pressures someone and then states, "Oh, I wasn't actually pressuring you." It seems like a good way to blend in while also "contributing" as scum. This is just the first instance of his noncommittal aggression. Let's look at his suspicions of hegeo. + Show Spoiler + I am unsure what to make of hegeo. The one thing which seems suspicious to me is his timing after being called out, the other stuff could easily be bad townie or careful day 1 play. Seeing that I am getting flak for my style it is easy to see why he gets thoroughly investigated now. What stands out from his posts is the analytical part. It seems to be lacking solidity to make the longer posts which he does not really support (see: + Show Spoiler +) Basing from this statement he must himself believe to have solid cases going with his "wall of texts", but in my opinion they are not solid at all. Once again this is "suspicion" that he doesn't actually have to commit to, and he hopes he won't be held accountable for. I would ask you all this, who would be more damaging as scum? The actions I've taken in the game have all been actions that I've committed to. (barring the mistake I made with s0Lstice, but that was just me being dumb.) You can actually tie me to what I've written and hold me accountable later in the game, whereas ShiaoPi seems to have some sort of "escape clause" in almost every single one of his posts. The only thing he's been adamant about has been his FOS of s0Lstice, and that pressure has a built in escape to it, seeing as he can excuse himself by saying that s0Lstice had pressured him first. Anyway, what are people's thoughts on this? Seeing as I'll be away for an hour or two I'm going to go ahead and vote. ##unVote: Mufaa ##Vote: ShiaoPi you switch away and point out the obvious about Mufaa. Not useful at all, except that it stops people from accusing you of being obvious scum. ShiaoPi was being fair to sciberia, if anything. It was pretty much the first content post and clearly, sciberia was inexperienced and had questions to ask us. Ok, so you point out that SHiaoPi repeated your arguement. That's fair, but if you criticize him, go criticize yourself too. Sciberia was new to the game. he flipped town which confirms that his questions were a valid attempt to understand the game and ShiaoPi clearly just trying to see how Sciberia responds. I'll admit here that ShiaoPi is very noncommital, but i think your are being quite overcommital with your vote based on this case that you could almost apply to yourself. + Show Spoiler + On May 24 2012 07:39 Miltonkram wrote: ShiaoPi, I did not deliberately disregard your later posts. However, real life has gotten in the way of me posting more content and my follow up analysis of your later posts was left undone. Suffice to say, I think what you call play style is actually your built in excuse for your scummy behavior. I think the healthy town atmosphere has forced you to be more active than you originally planned, and only after you were pressured by s0Lstice and myself did you begin to post decent, but not good, content. If I may sum up your play style for the sake of time: -Lurk until there is pressure on you -Respond to pressure with mostly defensive statements -When that doesn't work, begin to put counter-pressure on your attacker -Bandwagon on me once you see that I'm a prime lynch I'd post more direct analysis, but once again, time is running short. Everyone, I hope you can figure out why this is scummy activity in my eyes. If I get lynched today, I hope you keep this in mind. The pressure seems to be off ShiaoPi right now, so unless I can miraculously convince you all to vote for him I guess I'll have to switch my targets. Here you try to apply some stereotypical Scum characteristics on him without too much elaboration. No time? I might have given you that if you posted an analysis after that post but i can't find any. You suddenly seem to have dropped his case. That is scummy + Show Spoiler + On May 24 2012 07:54 Miltonkram wrote: Very well, I don't like making this move, but if we lynch hegeo, there is at least a small chance of him being mafia. ##unVote: ShiaoPi ##Vote: hegeo For the record, if you lynch me and see me flip town, that doesn't mean hegeo is mafia. Too much of his case has been circumstantial, and too much of it has been just a few vocal players tunneling him. If you don't believe hegeo was scum, don't vote him. But you seem keen on joining the bandwagon for him. Also, no analysis here: so you don't have to defend yourself against false analysis and to claim that you just want a majority vote. + Show Spoiler + On May 25 2012 06:12 Miltonkram wrote: I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances. Mafia + Mafia Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely. Townie + Townie If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M. Townie + Mafia Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation. That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone? we've been over this: too many assumptions, an attempt to fool the town. + Show Spoiler + On May 25 2012 10:20 Miltonkram wrote: @ Release- Misinformation? Where? All I'm trying to do is explain the assumption that I'll be working from as I analyze you and Mordanis's posts. In my post I was stating all the possibilities so that I could begin eliminating those possibilities that are less likely. From this point on, I am assuming that between the two of you (Release, Mordanis), I'm pretty sure one of you is scum and one of you is town. Let me restate this plainly: I don't think both of you are mafia. I don't think both of you are town. I think one of you is mafia and one of you is town. I believe this for the reasons I stated in my last long post. an assumption based defense; scummy Accusing me of labeling analysis as WIFOM. Your assumptions absolutely were WIFOM because there is nothing concrete to go by. + Show Spoiler + On May 25 2012 11:34 Miltonkram wrote: I'm going to be reading the filters for a while, so no posts from me for a bit. Right now my top scumreads are: -ShiaoPi: I think he excuses his scummy play by calling it play style. He came into the game with lurker/defensive play in mind, and only after he realized such play wouldn't cut it did he really get active. -Release/Mordanis: I'm not sure which one of these is scum, but I'm convinced that one of them used the other to cover their scumminess. Lastly, I've defended my play here: + Show Spoiler + On May 23 2012 19:02 @ Golden- You raise several good points, and I will do my best to explain my line of thinking. First you stated about me: If you still have a problem with my defense that's fine. Quite honestly, I'm kind of expecting to get lynched tonight anyway. Maybe when/if I get lynched it will be for the best and people will actually take my accusations seriously, but I'm going to continue to play the best I can no matter what. I'll be back in a little while. suddenly you seem to have remembered your case on ShiaoPi after the lynch. Why not keep pushing his case until the very end if you actually believed that he was scum? and from here, you make some statements on Mordanis and I that have since been addressed so i won't go over again. + Show Spoiler + On May 27 2012 03:59 Miltonkram wrote: We need to come to a consensus on skware quickly. We have less than 5 hours until deadline. skware is a pure policy lynch at this point, we simply don't have enough information to make a case for him or against him. Since he stated that he likely won't be back until after the deadline we need to plan for the worst case scenario, that he won't make it back in time. We don't gain much info from him if he flips either way, under that line of reasoning he could very well be scum. Thoughts? Golden's defense does not satisfy me, and that leads me to believe he's having difficulty figuring out a way to defend his actions. With that in mind ##Vote: O.Golden_ne If we decide that skware is the policy lynch I will switch my vote to him. Mordanis, I want to hear a defense from you, otherwise I will consider switching my vote to you. A vote on Golden as well as some random talk about lynching Skware. Like with mufaa, we don't need to worry about Skware until he disappears and probably gets modkilled. Then, you make a sentence which essentially gives you an opportunity to jump on a Mordanis bandwagon, should it start. So, if i die tonight, i beg that you lynch Milton. Lynch him to hell. From the bolded: You suddenly seem to have dropped his case. That is scummy . This is exactly what Release has been doing all game. He reads someone as scum, then returns to Milton. Reads someone else as scum, then returns to Milton. There is a contradiction in his play, and I thought that was why I misinterpreted what he said. Now I realize that it is just that, inconsistent. I find that very suspicious.And suddenly you seem to have remembered your case on ShiaoPi after the lynch. Why not keep pushing his case until the very end if you actually believed that he was scum? | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 30 2012 05:55 ShiaoPi wrote: 2,5 hours to lynch, I really hope this better be working. Really do not want to gamble on that shit. Hey skware you here? ##vote: skware If he isn't here to vote, we need at least one of the scum to vote for another scum to not lose. That is, if he doesn't vote for anyone, the two scum can keep from voting and force a no-lynch, at which point it'll be 2 scum - 2 town, at which point they win. That's assuming he isn't scum himself. If he is, we lynch him and go to another LYLO. Point is, if he isn't here to vote, town loses no matter what unless he's scum in which case we should vote for him. ##vote: skware | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 30 2012 07:40 ShiaoPi wrote: What annoys me to no end is that there is nothing town can do now besides going for the 2/5 chance that he is scum. If he is town we will not get enough votes to get a lynch and scum can easily mask themselves beneath the vote on the "only logical" choice that is left for town. It is just a fucking frustrating situation for LYLO and I am actually really pissed about this... Yeah, its sort of a shitty way for a game into which I think we've all poured a lot of time and effort into to end just because someone forgot his TL.net login or something. There really is no other option though. And I think if we made it more clear that lurking would lead to being killed (maybe D2), we may have scared him into posting more. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 30 2012 09:07 Release wrote: Everytime i read through your filter, I kept think bandwagon, bandwagon, bandwagon. The red hegeo w/o a vote and then you vote after my case and vote just stinked of scum all over. This is just such a weird thing to me because I actually was the first to post any accusation of Hegeo and also the first to post suspicion on Golden. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Shiao and Release: you guys were much stronger than I expected. I don't know if you were intentionally holding back all game or what, but at several points I felt like we had the game won ezpz, and then for some reason (I still have no idea why Shiao was defending Release at the end), you guys walled up the whole that I was expecting to exploit. GG guys, I'm sorry it had to end this way. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
 ), and hopefully after that I'll move on to the big leagues Also, right now I feel no drive to sign up for another game. It just ended in a kind of depressing way, but I'll probably feel the need to sign up again in about the time it take for summer school to run its course. And to all the non-newbies who obsed this: Thanks for the encouragement and help, I'll try to make to repay you with good games in the future! And VE, is there a QT for observers or hosts? I'd love to see what people who weren't in the game thought of my play. HAH! I can edit! I forgot to say that I'm very grateful to VisceraEyes and Marv for hosting this game. You guys are teh bomb! | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On another note, I feel much better about my play after reading the obs QT ^^ | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On May 30 2012 14:54 hegeo wrote: GG Mafia! Was such a pleasure to play with you all, even though you killed me D1 (well, I feel I'm pretty much guilty of that myself). I'll post more later, just wanted to say that I really felt the Mordanis/Release interactions were soo weird. I now realize that for this to happen, not both (sorry Release  ) but only one of them needs to play weird. Nicely played by you, Mordanis and Milton (Mordanis, don't feel bad plz, you two deserved it. One additional very active townie would have helped us perhaps, but even then it would have been hard for us). Also, rest of town, was a pleasure to see so much effort especially also on D2. If it makes you feel any better, I still don't understand what he was trying to do :/ And I feel bad because the game ended with a fizzle. If I had dug a yard under everyone else's plan and made the hoist to their own petard (Hamlet FTW), I would have felt great. The way things went though, it was just sort of a foregone conclusion, that was decided when the bandwagon started on Golden. I feel like I could have shown. That being said, Release apparently being convinced that I was scum without anything but a "this post doesn't make you shine as town", while being convinced that Milton was town after concluding that every action of his was scummy, and apparently still backing that up is still messing with my head. I have no idea why he didn't at least make a case on me. Perhaps he was fairly certain (as was I) that skware wouldn't return, and didn't want to put in several hours of work to make a solid case only to lose the game by the two scum refusing to vote (or vote for someone else). | ||
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