EPTAnyway, Barundar, if you say hiro is lying, who do you think has the politician role?
##vote: Barundar
Pick Your Power: Redux - Page 3
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
Anyway, Barundar, if you say hiro is lying, who do you think has the politician role? ##vote: Barundar | ||
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zelblade
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Which means if we go by the assumption that hiro isnt making a (really bad) gambit barundar is the SK. | ||
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zelblade
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1) Theres a really really dumb townie who decided not to claim getting politician. 2) Zeph decieded to lie for no reason about his pick at a point he didnt need to. So unless you think zeph is scum and has decided to suicide, barundar is most likely the sk here. Even if im wrong (which I dont think I am) we could just lynch hiro tomorrow who would be confirmed SK and zeph who would be confirmed scum and win the game. | ||
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zelblade
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And we are lynching SK now because we caught him with his pants down so to speak. | ||
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zelblade
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On May 23 2012 21:20 marvellosity wrote: I still want to know why you said we should be instalynching Politicians. Because any townie that doesnt claim they took the goddammed role (and got it) after all this crap is dumb as fuck, and I would like to think that this isnt the case | ||
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zelblade
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First you claim that snarfs took politician and didnt get it, and we assume that the SK took politician. Qatol proceeds to ask any town politician to claim if they got the role for obvious reasons. I see 0 reason for a townie politician to not claim at this point because it isnt even a strong role. Which means that a politician is in the game, and if he didnt claim, that would mean that the politician isnt town (unless he isnt very smart). The primary purpose of this entire roleclaim was to flush out the politician in the first place. Which is why we are auto-lynching the politician, because it is extremely likely whoever has the politician role is the SK. | ||
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zelblade
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zelblade
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 ), that means we have a liar in either misder or risk.nuke, or there could be a traitor abound, since thats the only role with roleblock left in the game. If there is a traitor we can expect risk to claim roleblock. Let's hear what risk has to say before jumping to conclusions I guess.Either way we lynch Barundar today for obvious reasons. ##vote: Barundar | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
That probably means that we have a traitor somewhere in the list. Well he cant do much at this point considering how a rolecop is absolutely useless except for lucking out into a fakeclaiming mafia, talk gets him lynched instantly unless he lucks out into a mafia again. The only problem is that he might have used his frame ability on Palmar or Tails n1/2, which would be problematic. Unlikely since that would require quite a lot of luck, but something to consider. The possible candidates for mafia/traitor are Misder, Toad, Zeph and Sandroba. Include myself if you so incline but I know im green so ill exclude me, and Palmar if you feel that its possible he got framed. Leaving him out for now as it is, as said, really unlikely. I shall be reading through the thread to come to some conclusions. @Matt I dont think traitors have to be dead for town to win. | ||
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zelblade
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On May 26 2012 01:16 Mattchew wrote: ##vote barundar I was trying to figure out if he coulda been the traitor and we had to lynch him... since we do he's obvi vote today Dude hes the SK (most likely) I will post my thoughts on who the last scum and the traitor are tomorrow. Its late and I dont feel like typing out a long post now. | ||
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zelblade
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On May 26 2012 02:18 Snarfs wrote: How about a preview so we have something to discuss? Misder probably town. Only scineario where I would consider him not town was if he was traitor and last scum is RB. Unlikely. I dont think Palmar or sandroba would take traitor because they dont seem to like playing scum and are much better at scum. Palmar is thus prolly green due to check. Sandroba possibly scum, didnt like what he was trying to do D1 with pushing marv. Agreed with you on Toad. Unsure on zeph as it is very risky to claim politician > VT like that if traitor/scum. Need to sleep on it. | ||
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zelblade
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Palmar has a green check on him. Possibly framed, but thats still quite unlikely so we leave him out of the lynch list for now. It looks like hes about to be modkilled anyway. Which leaves us with misder, sandroba and toad. I am relatively sure the last scum lies within either toad or sandroba, though I have yet to decide which. Leaning toad at the moment. Busy today, I will make a decision when I get back to the thread tomorrow. | ||
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zelblade
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I will respond more in the afternoon, have school now. | ||
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zelblade
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As you said there was no point in me revealing this piece of information and fucking sent over if i was scum. Anyway the reason why I didnt change my vote was simple. I overslept, and was supposed to wake up 2 hours before the deadline instead of like 20 minutes before it with quite a few pages to read. Primary reason I didnt switch my vote was that the lynch had already been decided, and that there was 11 people on sent, which meant that politician wouldnt have been a problem. Think about it. If I was scum and managed to accidentally bus my scumbuddy as you put it, wouldnt I just dump my vote on him anyway to look more townie from the flip....? (and scum didnt get politician). I "soft-defended" Paq because I didnt feel that he was scum at that point in time. The 2nd post was me finding Toad giving up on his opinions so early and deciding to just sheep pretty dammed wierd. Also snarfs saying that I could be a scum copycat is plain ridiculous. There is literally no point for any scum to save KP every night just to try and pull off a ninga win -_- As said, sandroba is more likely than not the last scum. Just cant see anyone else flipping scum apart from him at this point. ##vote: sandroba | ||
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zelblade
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I am fucking confused. Guess NL would be our best move here... ##vote: No-lynch | ||
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zelblade
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As said, I am pretty shocked that sandroba was not the last scum. Was relatively sure that the last scum was within toad and sandroba, which also happens to be why I wasnt actually doing much these past couple of days - I assumed that we won already. I have responded to the cases made against me, and I have given my reasons for all my actions thus far. Do you really think I would decide to fuck over sentinel D1 in exchange for getting some free cred (and I didnt even vote him so it wasnt even a full bus) which wouldnt have lasted long, sacrificing 1 extra KP n1? So who is the last scum? Just finished doing a reread and here are my conclusions: | ||
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zelblade
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zelblade
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Misder picked up roleblocker. At first, I did state that misder was probably town, primilarly due to the fact that his roleblocks didnt fit a mafia agenda. Well after reconsidering stuff it is possible that he did those to look townie since all his scumbuddies were dead anyway and doing so would allow for a safe roleclaim. Looking at his filter I dont really think he is scum though. Which leads me to believe that the last scum is marvellosity. I find it extremely wierd that he took the mason role at spot 3. I believe that he did so in order to deny sandroba mason. Sandroba happens to be a vet, and the mason role in his hands, which I speculate would have been used by him to get into contact with one his stronger town reads (probably Qatol) would probably be extremely dangerous for scum. Not only that, doing so would allow him to get into a decent position, primilarly due to the fact that whoever he got masoned with would be inclined to think that he was town. I dont think picking a scumbuddy would be a good move for mason, since there would be a lot of explanation to do when the partner flipped. Looking through what happened D1, one would notice that marv manages to escape a lot of the attention despite being part of the situation then. Anyways, I believe marv. Because there is literally no explanation why he would claim mason of all roles as scum. Which makes it risk.nuke's turn to get up on the noose. Take the FoS off Qatol and replace it with Sent and Risk. I haven't read into Marv yet but as of now I'd like to keep the lynch candidates between those two. But this time I feel risk is a lot scummier than sent. Quotes from sentinel and Paqman D1 (flipped scum). You would notice here that both of them are attempting to push along the risk wagon, whilst at the same time removing doubt from marv. I find how marv managed to escape most of the attention D1 despite not following the plan too. As I stated earlier, I found marv's action to not follow the plan despite saying that he would extremely scummy as well, simply due to the fact that it was the optimal move for scum as janitor would be a dead role. I think that marv is the last scum. I would be fine with lynching him today, though I wouldnt mind a no-lynch either. | ||
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zelblade
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On June 05 2012 06:36 Misder wrote: zelblade- Why did you leave your vote on risk.nuke day 1? Why did you claim JOAT so late/without crumbing? Is there anything else besides shooting deconduo that makes him town? marvellosity- Why did that post of zelbade confirm himself as scum? Mattchew- Why were you accusing people of being scum without any backup? ##Vote: No lynch When I came back there were 11 votes on risk, which was majority + 1, which also meant that the lynch was already decieded at that point in time. I was going to claim Joat earlier (like when the claims started coming in) but I fell asleep (was really late (~2am) at that time and managed to wake up late because I didnt set my alarm. Didnt think about crumbing it. and even if I did it wouldnt have made much of a difference since scum could do that too. Regarding mattchew, his filter isnt exactly stellar. It is entirely possible he decided to just shoot his scumbuddy in the face d1 or his team derped and didnt take copycat when they planned to, but that is exteremly unlikely imo. @Marv I am relatively sure the primary reason snarfs didnt mention you was because he knew your role. So I dont get why you are using him as an example. Either way the way the day progressed was simple. Snarfs asked who got janitor, I mention that there is something wierd going on up in the top 4. Sent claims that he "did not get janitor", and Snarfs votes sent. He does not consider you as a possibility simply because you are his mason buddy and we were janitor hunting. Traitor zeph dumps his vote onto risk, and sent comes back to post this On May 18 2012 04:05 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Sorry bout that, was in school. Anyways. I am Vanilla Town and not Janitor. So I'm claiming either risk or marvel is the janitor. And I don't trust risk. Because risk does not like the plan. Naturally this triggers a reaction from risk, who proceeds to vote him. Simply put, a combanation of snarfs being your buddy and heavily pushing the lynch in sent's direction, combined with sent claiming that you were a less likely possibility, made it such that you were pretty much removed from people's thought processes. And no Qatol didnt protect you continously, his primary reason for voting sentinel was that it was the best move. Yes I agree. While I still think that PaqMan is our best lynch target, it's clear that he won't be getting lynched this cycle. Any further pushing I do on the subject will just further splinter the town and make a no lynch/mislynch more likely. I'll have to look at filters and histories more carefully for risk.nuke, marvellosity, and Sentinel before I make a final decision, but I'll make a few observations: 1. Unless we lynch Sentinel, we don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is among the first 3 players at all. For all we know, the first 2 players took something else and Sentinel is mafia and just lying. Sentinel is also, like Snarfs mentioned, the one of the three who is claiming not to have a role. If we assume 2 townies and 1 scum (if there were 2 scum, I can't imagine that they wouldn't just have one member claim the role to avoid giving the town incredible odds of destroying their team), that means that at least 1 of the townies has a role which is probably pretty good considering where they're picking. 2. I could definitely see risk.nuke acting like this as a townie. Notice that he wanted to post his numbers so nobody else would pick them before the game even started and posted them immediately when the game did start. This shows that he's impulsive and rather selfish in his actions. He's also the only one of the three who said he wouldn't be picking Janitor or CPR before the drafting phase ended. I'll do a more in depth analysis tomorrow, but for now, logic say vote Sentinel, so I'll preliminarily vote for him. ##Unvote: PaqMan ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel The fact that he doesnt even mention you proves my point. | ||
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zelblade
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