EPTNewbie Mini XII - Page 7
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
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##Vote: No Lynch | ||
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On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote: ##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority. | ||
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On May 05 2012 03:11 dahdum wrote: So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways. Pretty sure I can. | ||
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Someone else can get the train rolling today. | ||
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Now: 6 + 2 Today after mislynch: 5 + 2 Tomorrow after night: 4 + 2 Day after: Mislynch 3 + 2 Night after -> Loss. You can afford 2 more mislynches at this point (including today). There isn't a case for dahdum. There is all too strong a case for claw, tofu, or even me. Let's presume we are wrong today. Mafia will be a 3rd of the town, and given the lack of determination on the part of townspeople to find the scum..... We are in trouble. | ||
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It seems that FirmTofu and Clawtrocity, regardless of their alignment, aren't so much playing to win as playing to be unpredictable and to troll. That kind of behavior can only hurt the town. You can't confuse the mafia by being trolly since the mafia know who you are. And since the mafia read the same thing on the forum as everybody else, consistent assessments will result in consistent actions. Without getting too formal.... We say that an assessment of a situation is consistent if what you think about it is what other people think that you think about it. If I think I'm fat, but nobody else thinks that I think I'm fat, then my initial assessment was consistent. In particular, we are interested in how actions affect what the town thinks, and affect what the mafia thinks that the town thinks. Let's walk through some cases Case 1: You troll hard enough so that the townspeople think you're mafia, then you have trolled enough for the mafia to think that the townspeople think that you're mafia. This only hurts the town because if the townspeople genuinely think that you're mafia, you only get lynched during day play. Case 2: You troll just hard enough so that the townspeople don't think you're mafia, but that the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is beneficial, but this is what you would call an "inconsistent" assessment. Since Mafia have access to a superset of information, regarding alignments, as the townies during day play, it is illogical to think that mafia think that the town believes something it doesn't. <- Lots of I think that he thinks, but if you read that last sentence a few times it should be pretty clear. Case 3: You troll hard enough so the townspeople think you're mafia, but the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is a double-edged bad situation. You get yourself voted off in day play, and just to be sure, you haven't reduced the probability of your being targeted in night play. Case 4: You don't troll enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia, and the mafia know that you haven't trolled enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia. This is the only consistent assessment that doesn't hurt the town. Conclusions: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum. Dahdum, Aces, and Matriarch, and to a lesser degree Ange, are more or less inactive. They haven't said anything of import in one way or the other. Basically only echoing previously posted sentiment or posting one off comments without having those comments materialize into legitimate accusations or votes. There is really no point in lynching any of them at this stage in the game when it is clear that lynching one of the three troublemakers (me, tofu, or claw) will actually reveal information, even if we flip a VT. If I flip medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been unfounded. If Claw flips anything other than medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been right on. My case against claw has been heavily documented and you can see it by using the filter command on my posts or his. I'd rather not get into that again. Tofu, on the other hand, has made an interesting play. He illogically claimed detective and then apparently illogically used his vote on an inactive, which he knew would 90%+ chance yield no information. If, as he claimed, he was afraid of wasting his check on claw or me, he could've used it on Demorcef or Paschl, who actually have taken stances that alignments might shed light on. And this fear, again, was based on the assumption of there being a godfather or framer who would be lucky enough to target the same person he did (in the case of a framer) or just a 1/9 chance of him accidentally hitting a godfather. Given that a check on me or claw would be gamebreaking, and given that his chance of being roleblocked was significantly less than 50% assuming any reasonable belief about the presence of either a Godfather or Framer and the distribution of the Framer's choices, his play was (however you look at it) suboptimal. + Show Spoiler [proof of suboptimality] + Let's say he believes that, as in each of the previous 11 games, that there has been 1 roleblocker for the Mafia and that there was a p probability that that roleblocker was a framer and a 1-p probability that the roleblocker was a Godfather. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on there being a godfather was 1/9. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on their being a framer was less than or equal to 50% (which is a minimax safe strategy in a symmetric guessing game achieved by randomly choosing me or claw). Then, his probability of being roleblocked was p*(1/2) + (1-p)*(1/9), which we can see is maximized (through first order conditions and resulting corner case) where p = 1. Therefore, his probability of being role blocked in the very worst case was 50%. If, however, he more reasonably believed that the chance of a framer or a Godfather was equal (p=1/2) then his probability of being blocked was only 5/18. | ||
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I guess in a newbie game, it's a weaker argument than it might be otherwise. I guess the best way to address suboptimal play is with more suboptimal play. Whatever. Vote me off and make what you will of my medic flip ##Unvote: No Lynch ##Vote: Gummy It's probably better than a no lynch at this point since this actually gives you guys information you can trust without having to work through deduction or math, and since you guys don't seem to have the balls to make reasonable votes on candidates who might actually get a majority. ^_^ GL HF friends! | ||
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##vote:clawtrocity | ||
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