EPTTL Mafia 'Area' LIII
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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MidnightGladius
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MidnightGladius
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0 vig claims: There are no vigs. Simple enough. 1 vig claim: There is either 1 vig, or a scum faking the claim. We have the vig claim their shot. If the shot hits, and we have a tracker, we can keep tracking the vig claim, meaning that a fakeclaiming scum would never be able to shoot until the tracker died. If the shot doesn't hit, and the jailkeepers know not to jail the vig's target, then we have confirmed scum between the vig and the target. In this case, as long as the mafia team doesn't know the real role distribution, they can't risk fake-claiming. This is good for town. 2-3 vig claims: There are 0-3 vigs, and either no scum faking claims, or some number of them. Each vig claims and shoots a different target during Night 1. Day 2, we sort them into two groups based on whether or not their shots hit. If the shot hit, we set it aside, and we focus on the group whose shots didn't hit. For each such vig, either that player has no KP (therefore GF), or their target was a GF. We lynch both of them. Either they flip GF and townie (case 1) or GF and GF (case 2). In case 1, great, we can do normal analysis on the flipped GF. In case 2, we have to be a bit more careful, but it's still a 1-for-1 trade. If all of the shots hit, then we know that there are no actual GFs fakeclaiming, and any lynched non-vig-claim flipping GF is an actual GF. 4+ vig claims: There are 0-3 vigs, and some number of scum faking claims. We use the same plan as in the above case. However, if all of the shots hit, then in addition to there being no GFs in the group, we know that there are one or more goons among the group, which is awesome. This is all assuming, of course, that any JKs follow the plan by not jailing any of the vig claims or their targets, but I think that that should be doable. Additionally, scum have no incentive to shoot vig claims, because a night-killed "Godfather" can only be a vig, making it a lot easier for us to figure out lynched players flipping GF. Gonzaw's points about preventing chaos during later vig claims/GF lynches is also quite valid. VE, I don't see what you don't like about the plan. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On April 21 2012 11:04 VisceraEyes wrote: Scum start off with an information advantage. Any plan that involves giving information to scum (like, who all the vigs in the game are) is a net loss for town 100% of the time. I'll address your points individually, for ease of comprehension. Your list of grievances hinges entirely on the jailkeeper not cooperating. Why in the world would he not cooperate? I don't follow your reasoning about not making assumptions. Also, in this setup, the death miller mechanic makes it so that the town is hurt heavily by *not* knowing who the actual vigs are. The mafia already know who their own GFs are, so we're not really giving any advantages away. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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The plan is strictly meant to deal with and neutralize the chaos that the death miller mechanic would otherwise generate. I think it does a good job of doing so. Look at the scenarios I pointed out on the bottom of page 10: In each case, the town gets very useful information, we don't have to deal with later-game vig claims, and we force the mafia to make fake claims very early on, allowing us to cross-examine all of their subsequent behavior. Also, I'm not comfortable using scumslips as evidence, and I don't think a scum player would propose a plan that seems highly likely to benefit the town. I'm not willing to vote gonzaw at the moment. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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If a GF claims vig and then has a Goon shoot his claimed target, we lose the ability to deduce the results of night actions, unless a tracker is lucky enough to track a GF doing nothing while his claimed target dies, or a JK goes against the plan, jails one of the vig claims, and that player's target dies. That does suck, but I'm glad I realized it now and not later. While this greatly reduces the merits of the plan, it still has a few things going for it: 1) We have a list of players who could potentially flip GF. Any GF flips outside of this list would be actual GFs, and we'd prevent players from claiming vig later in the game. This neutralizes the death miller effect, and I'm highly in favor of doing this, as that is the major scum advantage in this setup. Also, if no vigs claim at all, then we're in the clear in terms of flipping GFs. 2) If a vig claims a target and that player doesn't die, then we lynch them both: either it was a GF shooting without having a Goon fake the shot, or an actual vig hit a GF. Either way, we hit scum. On April 21 2012 11:38 VisceraEyes wrote: ANYONE PUSHING A MASS-VIG-CLAIM IS DOING SO ALONGSIDE CLAIMED SCUM That's all I'm going to say on the matter. Feel free to continue discussing this ad nauseum. I'm town this game, so I'm going to die N1 unless some super intelligent JK protects me. Thank you, that is all. Just how confident are you that his word choice confirms him as scum? Enough to push him immediately, when more than half of the players have yet to post? On April 21 2012 11:39 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Just wondering, what's the chance gonzaw's not mafia but just making an extremely retarded point? At any rate, what I don't get is number 6. If I was GF pretending to be vig, I'd shoot as many of the other vigs as I could. And if I was JK, I'd protect those vigs who I trust to be either town vigs or some other blues. Every vig that is night-killed reduces the impact of the death miller mechanic, which I think is terrible for town scumhunting. Do you disagree? If the JK attempts to protect players he believes to be vigs, it makes it impossible to deduce anything. Coupled with the death millers, we could easily drown ourselves in WIFOM. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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I can accept the town not reaching a consensus about any possible vigilante plans. Even though I still think that it would be a good deal for us, it's pretty clear that not everyone would be on board, and that's that. I like BH's case on marvellosity. Marv is vague and unhelpful: statements like this and this indicate that either he's not actually thinking about the topic, or that he is and isn't willing to actually explain his thought process. This lack of transparency is surprisingly out of character for him, considering his previous town play in TL Mafia LI, where he was much more direct, asked questions about players' motivations and not objective things like how shots would resolve, and actually responded to big posts in detail, not just with a: On April 21 2012 10:33 marvellosity wrote: Holy gonzaw post. Nice ##Vote: marvellosity Risen is coming off as really defensive, what with his retaliatory vote on layabout, but I can't tell if he's scum, and my intuition on him is leaning town, mostly because I don't think that he was actually trying to defend marv. If he thinks that posting is pro-town, and honestly believes that that's a good enough heuristic, then I can see where he's coming from. Janaan, if you're going to acknowledge that the vig plans are no longer a useful topic, then save all that for the post-game. What do you think of Marv? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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I'm dropping my vote on marv, because other players are looking way more suspicious. He has also started posting much better, and I think his earlier response to my and BJ's cases was genuine. VE's claim makes absolutely no sense at all to me, and I can't see how it, or his subsequent behavior, benefits the town at all. Other players have made their cases well enough, so I'm not going to rehash their points, but VE is one of the more scummy players here right now. The only problem is, unlike LI, this claim makes no sense, doesn't advance a scum agenda, and isn't being supported by other mafia members. No one is even trying to defend him, except johnnywup, and I didn't see a scum plan out of their previous interactions. Would scum bus VE this early? It just doesn't make nearly as much sense as his actions in LI. The other possibility is that VE and johnnywup are both scum, playing less than optimally, with one or more of their teammates lurking heavily. In fact, the more I look at johnnywup's filter, it's pretty condemning. Starting from the second page of his filter, he puts a lot of suspicion on Paqman, who he calls "super scummy." However, he doesn't vote for him. He then says that Risen and St.Daniel are both scummy, raises doubts about Paqman's voting, and states that marv is looking better. He then immediately votes for marvellosity after BJ's second case. Why is johnny willing to revise his reads and immediately vote based on others' reasoning, while completely failing to push and vote for his own scumreads? He earlier was going to post a case on Sentinel, but never did so, apparently having felt that his evidence wasn't firm enough, but he continues to view Sentinel suspiciously, and even considers voting for him at ghost's request, if he presents a case. Again, we see a pattern where johnnywup is entirely willing to sheep other players, but doesn't want to make the first move. Johnny's reasoning for not having to post his case, "I'm being transparent, and I think my case is bad, so I'm not going to post it," is fair enough, but it leaves a pretty gaping hole in his argument: If Sentinel was scummy to him, but he couldn't make a compelling case, then what about his other scumreads? If johnny thinks Sentinel is innocent, then that must mean that he finds other players more suspicious. However, he doesn't pursue any of them! He doesn't write any cases, or ask any questions, or anything. Johnny's voteswitch to BM comes totally out of the blue. He doesn't say anything about why he's unvoting marv, despite earlier being more sure of it than he was of his own case against Paqman. And guess what, he immediately is certain of BM's guilt... but only after others made the first move. In between his posts where he is absolutely certain of someone being scum, he posts a bunch of not-particularly-helpful one-liners, but he hasn't done any real scumhunting of his own at all. Besides his defense of VE, he hasn't really taken an independent stance on anything. That, coupled with his sheeping, is enough to convince me. ##Unvote: marvellosity ##Vote: johnnywup | ||
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MidnightGladius
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The fact that Risen hasn't posted recently is concerning, but I found his earlier anger in character, and I want to give him a chance to respond and share his new reads before I vote for him. I don't see a need or good reason to lynch VE, a claimed Jailkeeper, today, especially when there are players like johnny running around. BH, I don't have as firm a scumread on marv as I did earlier, and I think you're tunneling him a bit too hard. As you said yourself, his more recent posts have been reasonably solid, but you disregard that as an "exception to the rule." I'm more tempted to think that, so long as his posting quality doesn't deteriorate, he's town with a weak Day 1 start. You're also concerned with his weak case, and I agree that he has a lot to make up for with his upcoming play, but I'm not convinced now that he's scum. Would you care to take a step back and look for other possible scum candidates, or are you going to insist that you're right? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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Also, with regards to your conviction: what would it take to convince you that you were wrong about marv? When I voted for him, it was because his posts were fluffy, and I told myself that if he started posting more substantially, then he would be less likely to be scum. From your perspective, his later posts reflected him playing to the standard you set for him. Instead of acquitting him, you used his behavior to further incriminate him. So I ask you this, and you don't have to answer in thread if you're afraid of WIFOM or whatever, but what would convince you that marv is town? If you're absolutely certain, and nothing could shift your beliefs, then remember that this is a game of incomplete information, and that you can't possibly be sure. Personally, I think lynching marv would make a terrible mislynch at this point. I still think that johnny is the best scum candidate at the moment, and that it's not too late to make it happen. His defense against my allegation of sheeping was to acknowledge that he was sheeping and claim that he's a bad player. How in the world are we just letting that slide? I would also be okay with lynching VE based on his complete unwillingness to continue playing, even though I'm hesitant to lynch a D1 jailkeeper claim, ridiculously scummy play or not. Apparently there are no activity requirements for this game, but I still want to hear from BM before making any decisions about him. My current read on Risen is null, though it's hard to tell, because the tone of his posts is really starting to get on my nerves. | ||
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johnny stills seems like scum to me, and his above voteswitch to BM doesn't help in the slightest. Zeph is setting off my alarm bells, as well, but I'm going to give him more rope to hang himself with first. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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slOosh marvellosity Bill Murray Ottoxlol VE layabout Sentinel Zephirdd In order of voting time. I wonder how many scum were on VE's lynch? Tomorrow, we're taking a long hard look at Zephirdd. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On April 23 2012 10:42 slOosh wrote: So here are MG's thoughts on the D1 main lynch candidates. He is only willing to vote johnny, and would be ok lynching VE (but letting everyone know he would be hesitant). So out of the 4 people, he says nope these guys aren't scummy I'd rather lynch johnny. I found VE's play to be ridiculously scummy, but I was hesitant to vote for a claiming jailkeeper. You clearly twisted my words and intentions here. Then we get this post. VE just flipped blue. He subtly blames people for the VE mislynch, when he himself put in no effort to get people off, and actually would have supported the VE lynch himself. I subtly blame people? I blamed the entire town. We is a plural that includes the speaker, and I will repeat, I can't believe we let that happen. I say here that I see no need or reason to lynch VE post-claim, and I provided an alternative case on johnny, who had demonstrated scummier motivations. I was still uncertain about VE, so I didn't hound other players to stop voting for him. In any case, I doubt any of you would have listened. So what does MG think we should do next? He invites everyone to look into the VE voter list, the guy he thought was the scummiest out of the four D1 lynch candidates. There are some serious logical jumps made here. Either the candidates were all town, in which the scum would have no incentive to push the votes onto VE, or at least one of the candidates are scum and scum piled onto VE to avoid getting lynched, in which case he should be looking into who is that scum candidate. However, he suggests that we all look into the VE mislynch voter list. Could scum be hiding there? Certainly. Is it logically reasonable to start looking there? No. I provided the list, because the mods in the voting thread hadn't posted a list of voters chronologically, and I thought it would for good for everyone to see. People, read MG's filter and tell me your thoughts. I don't like how VE played but he found something off in MG. So have I. By all means, I'm happy to address your concerns, and those of any others who might share them. That said, what does everyone think of Zeph, especially his latest posts? He earlier posted a list of "scumreads" that he admitted was entirely baseless: why would a town player ever do that? It gives him a springboard to attack any of the players on it, while also giving him room to back down and jump on a different wagon instead. His posting is fluffy and irrelevant (Star Wars references? Profit memes?), and he just sheeped sloosh's case on me without providing any additional content at all. Coupled with his earlier "last-minute" vote and inactivity during Day 1, I say we have ourselves a scum. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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That said, I still think that you're scum, johnny. You have zeph as your strongest scumread, but refuse to vote for him, and ask for town consensus first, when we've just started the day, and you have the most time to convince others? You have yet to actually push your own scumreads, outside of your earlier sheeping. Your unwillingness to actually put your vote where your voice is very suspicious, and I think that you're trying to gently push for a bandwagon without actually committing. This behavior is just like zeph's list earlier, which is why I'm of the opinion that you're bussing him. ##Vote: johnnywup Oh, and BJ, do you still insist on tunneling marv? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On April 24 2012 13:13 johnnywup wrote: The day just started, and I want to take a closer look at you first MG. My point exactly. Why lead with a question about Zeph v Sent, when you've already decided on the answer yourself during the night, without voting? Why would a town player hesitate to vote first? Why would a town player try to build consensus (ie a quick bandwagon) at the very beginning of the day? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On April 24 2012 13:17 BlazingJitsu wrote: I consider Paq to be an acceptable lynch, and if it really comes down to it, I might be able make do with you as well. But Marv has pretty much claimed scum, and needs to die. I'll do some rereading before I come to a verdict on you. That being said, I understand the necessity of discussing other candidates today given the general badditude of everyone who's like "oh Marv isn't scum". I will make all appropriate efforts to find the 3 Non-Marv Scums (NMSes)-- but lynching Marv is the most important thing for today and is my top priority. -Blazinghand The only problem is that, going from yesterday, no one will follow you to a marv lynch, and unless you can actually present compelling evidence otherwise, no one will follow you today. At that point, all of your posts are just cluttering up the thread. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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Post your case(s) on any one or more of those three, and then vote for your strongest scumread. You can even pursue your associative tells/pairs, as long as you then vote for your strongest scumread. That's all I ask. Mattchew, I would argue that BM still doesn't make a good lynch today. Lack of posts and odd behavior don't give us much to work with, one way or the other, and we can't really make too many connections if he flips scum. I'm personally keeping my vote on johnny for now, but I will gladly vote for Zeph as well. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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Would I have liked to have been perfectly certain and pulled a ton of pressure to move votes off of VE? Sure. Did I think it was the right, or feasible, idea at the time? No. | ||
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On April 25 2012 05:19 ghost_403 wrote: Sentinel has two votes. I vote we lynch him today and Ottoxlol tomorrow. Sound good? Well, that's that. Nice knowing you, scum. ##Unvote: johnnywup ##Vote: ghost_403 | ||
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On April 25 2012 05:36 ghost_403 wrote: @Midnight: I found two scum. I'm saying let's lynch the one today and the other tomorrow. Lynching scum sounds like a good idea to me. And I think that that's presumptuous and downright misleading, considering that you're discounting an entire Day/Night's worth of information. The only reason you would want to start tomorrow's lynch train today would be to try and minimize discussion tomorrow, which is incredibly scummy, considering that with BJ's modkill, we could be at LYLO very quickly. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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"Sentinel has 2 votes [when everyone else has 1]." That single line screamed scum to me so loudly that I admit I haven't even gone through the rest of his filter yet. Or maybe I'm just sleep-deprived. I dunno, I'm going to take a nap and come back later. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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##Unvote: ghost_403 layabout, I'm never going to live that line expressing regret about VE down, am I? Next time, I'll be sure to just repeat everyone else saying that VE was bad, and that would be better, right?  | ||
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MidnightGladius
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layabout, I can't explain my motivations to you if you insist that you know them better than I do. It will be incredibly ironic when VE gets his wish of getting me mislynched, albeit in a different game when we're both town  . | ||
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MidnightGladius
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However, his recent posts have been much better, and I can't place him in a scum agenda, so I'm not confident enough to name him as scum. | ||
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Sentinel is pretty much impossible for me to read, and his latest WIFOM is incredibly frustrating. My intuition on him is apathetic town, but he could easily be scum, and I just can't tell. I don't feel like he's taking things at all seriously, and his unwillingness to push cases beyond Ottoxlol doesn't help. And we still have so many lurkers, and no vig claims to deal with them... BKEXE, any conclusions yet? St.Daniel, now that you're replaced out of SNMMX, any thoughts? We really can't do this without you guys. ##Vote: Zephirdd | ||
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On April 26 2012 07:48 layabout wrote: Johnny i didn't think zeph was scummy yesterday and i said so. I still don't think he is now. And my number 1 scumread voted for him. MG has been truly apathetic towards today's lynch, he has put in very little effort and offered very little of his own thoughts. He was willing to write a case against Johnny, he gave up on it, and now he has hopped onto the zeph wagon because of reasons that he has apparently had for days that he is not willing to share with us. I wrote a case on johnny, it was ignored (except by Ottoxlol today), and I dropped it after re-evaluating johnny's play. My vote on ghost was admittedly poorly reasoned and paranoid. I wrote my reasons for voting for Zephirdd, and they haven't changed since then. If you want me to rehash all of my points each time new evidence comes up, that's all well and good, and I could quote all of Zeph's fearmongering and deflection and fluff today, but I don't plan on doing it. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On April 23 2012 12:44 MidnightGladius wrote: That said, what does everyone think of Zeph, especially his latest posts? He earlier posted a list of "scumreads" that he admitted was entirely baseless: why would a town player ever do that? It gives him a springboard to attack any of the players on it, while also giving him room to back down and jump on a different wagon instead. His posting is fluffy and irrelevant (Star Wars references? Profit memes?), and he just sheeped sloosh's case on me without providing any additional content at all. Coupled with his earlier "last-minute" vote and inactivity during Day 1, I say we have ourselves a scum. | ||
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Zeph: johnny Janaan MG St.Dan Marv Paqman Ottox Ottox: Memen Risen Bill Zeph ghost Sent Mattchew laya Ottox is currently to be lynched. Laya cast the deciding vote, ninja style. | ||
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That said, mislynching me will cost us the game. You're just going to have to trust me. The fact that a bunch of townies have been pushing for me is disheartening, but I'm sure that you will find scum trying to hammer me today. | ||
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