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On April 26 2012 06:51 Zephirdd wrote:
gotta love StDaniel's ninja vote.
Also gotta love how forced people are analyzing my posts. Geez I should play more like Kenpachi and Bill Murray, I bet I'd feel more comfortable with this.
Sentinel, I just pointed out town-confirmed reads, as in, reads that can be trusted to be pro-town. Opinions that we know that aren't scum opinions. Y'know, trustable opinions. No, I never said they are right.
Marv, just because I never mention Sentinel, teh lurker, doesn't mean I can't vote him to bring him out. Simply put, after he posted I switched to Ottoxlol.
I Love how Midnight, StDaniel and marvellosity switched their votes to me at the end of the day. I am aware that I need one more vote to be sniped, which will be achieved by some clueless town or simply by the fourth scum(*ahem Ottoxlol ahem*)
It's okay. I admit I've done some shit there and here, but some town players should realize that a lot of these 'cases' are just bad logic. When I flip green, you'll realize how dumb all of this was.
Scum, you are killing yourselves by trying to kill me. Just a tip.
So you moved your vote off someone you didn't mention before on to something else. Let's look at your entire filter and your cases and mention of Ottoxlol.
On April 25 2012 09:49 Zephirdd wrote:
My scum reads are actually similar to BH's: marv, Midnight and Ottoxlol look bad to me. In fact, I'd say Ottoxlol is a better target than Sentinel for now.
That's it. Literally, that's all you have on Ottoxlol.
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On April 26 2012 07:11 Mementoss wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 07:02 layabout wrote:If you have a town read on MignightGladius please speak out. Earilier i may have written that gonzaw made points against him but i was incorrect. SlOosh is the player that made a case against him. Since Mignight Gladius is probably scum, hitting slOosh has become much more understandable. Mignight is not being proactive about posting and he has again tried to play down and discredit my accusations against him rather than be open or honest about his acitions. He has kept his posting to a minimum. Today we have had a much more "productive" discussion, and by that i mean nearly everything has been centred about who to lynch and why, it has consisted largely of players giving their opinions and sharing reads. By contrast much of yesterday was spent discussing the set-up (to get discussion going) there was an awful lot of trashy/hateful posting proportionally far less of the postin gthat we have seen today. When the discussion was not serious but was easy to post thoughts without having to give strong opinions Mignight was posting a lot and he was posting long. Now that he can only post about who he thinks the scum are, he has gone quiet, and the posts he has made have been shorter and devoid of content. i also didn't place vote yesterday ##vote MignightGladius With an hour left, I don't like that you are avoiding the 2 most popular lynches. So you can't be put on a person with a possible green flip, since you would be almost the deciding vote. Although I see I do see the possibilty of MG being scummy.
Agree with this. Also agree with your 'this is fucking hard as shit' comment. I have too few positive town reads to be able to narrow down the scumreads easily.
There's lots of people who 'could' be scum atm. But I think Zephirdd is the most scummy by a margin (to repeat, his two votes today have a total of about 20 words combined backing them up. Wow).
I would urge people to vote for Zephirdd ahead of Ottoxlol who could still just be bad town.
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There's plenty to deal with tomorrow. The null reads as I'm sure some of us have as well as the lurkers. For now town is converging on two players and we need to deal with that.
Mementoss - I can't entice you with some red Zephirdd?
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Zephirdd: if you're not scum, could you please tell me why your two votes of today are backed up by 0 analysis?
The first one was on a lurker... iffy on day 2, but ok. Then the 2nd on Ottoxlol is backed up by one whole sentence you've said all game.
What gives?
What gives on your excitement that VE being JK made me look bad?
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On April 26 2012 07:48 layabout wrote:
Johnny i didn't think zeph was scummy yesterday and i said so. I still don't think he is now. And my number 1 scumread voted for him.
MG has been truly apathetic towards today's lynch, he has put in very little effort and offered very little of his own thoughts. He was willing to write a case against Johnny, he gave up on it, and now he has hopped onto the zeph wagon because of reasons that he has apparently had for days that he is not willing to share with us.
I think your case on MG is decent and in part mirrors some of the questions I put at him. But I think Zephirdd is scummier.
And to repeat - I fucking hate St. Daniel's ninja vote.
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Risen, could you please comment on the contradiction jdub pointed out on you?
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On April 26 2012 08:02 layabout wrote:
ottox if you don't switch onto MG i will kill you
What the fuck?
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It's not a claim, it's just stupid
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On April 26 2012 08:26 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 08:23 johnnywup wrote:On April 23 2012 07:51 Risen wrote:On April 23 2012 00:17 Zephirdd wrote:
God damnit layabout. I was about to post how VE's claim made sense and how he was town, but then you convince me the opposite. Geez.
And this martyring post from VE only makes sense from two PoVs:
- He really is a JK and he will let town use his flip information to deal with what happened during the day
- He is scum trying to sound like that.
Also, right now, I see no reason to lynch Bill Murray - he should be vigged, not lynched if he doesn't contribute soon.
VE, what is your stance on gonzaw, especially after his series of (Seemingly) drunk posts?
Also, please make the case against the certain scum you are talking about. Should you flip JK, we got something solid to work from. In fact, I'll take you are claiming scum if you don't do that. That last post combined with, oh I was totally thinking VE was town but layabout you changed my world view bro post is horrible.. There's no way we can get the votes on him today, I'm sorry johnny. I didn't believe you before, and I thought you were scummy. My bad, I dropped the ball. Push this guy tomorrow, push him hard. I'm being too belligerent right now and I need to cool off. I dunno, doesn't seem like you thought he's scum because he's lurking. Maybe b/c there were a million lurkers D1 so to be even more hated in my mind you'd have to do something stupid like a last minute vote? He was leaning red start D2, he became greener to me with his posting, he started to appear more scummy but in my mind that's desperation about being a candidate for lynching. I think zephir is stupid, but I think he's stupid town. I'm not switching my vote to him.
He became greener with his posting? You know, where he fully justifies his 2 votes he made today?
With absolutely nothing? ffs
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I'm sorry, can someone just clarify:
Was it that ottoxlol was set to be lynched and Risen fucked around with the majority mechanics and got zeph lynched instead?
Meanwhile, zeph flipped town. not good :/
gonna point it out again, because i refuse it to get lost - st. daniel's ninja vote
Gotta head off now. Some actions for tomorrow being resolving the clusterfuck of voting tonight and LURKERS.
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EBWOP: Risen seems to have just confirmed my question
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On April 26 2012 21:05 Mementoss wrote:
Damn, I have no good scum reads atm, hopefully can prod some players and find something eventually, still curious about ottoxlol, I will probably be afk most of the night.
At this point I am happy to hear layabout on MG's case, as MG has been leaning the wrong side of null for me. Zephirdd flipping green has also helped get rid of some nagging doubts I had about layabout - because I thought Zeph was scum, I felt layabout's defence of him was a bit dodgy, but as it turns out he just had a better read on him than I did :/
Also we've now had the same situation twice:
1) BM ninja voting VE day 1 with a completely unacceptable reason given AFTER the lynch
2) St. Daniel ninja voting Zeph day 2 with NO excuse or reason
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On April 26 2012 21:43 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 21:05 Mementoss wrote:
Damn, I have no good scum reads atm, hopefully can prod some players and find something eventually, still curious about ottoxlol, I will probably be afk most of the night. At this point I am happy to hear layabout on MG's case, as MG has been leaning the wrong side of null for me. Zephirdd flipping green has also helped get rid of some nagging doubts I had about layabout - because I thought Zeph was scum, I felt layabout's defence of him was a bit dodgy, but as it turns out he just had a better read on him than I did :/ Also we've now had the same situation twice: 1) BM ninja voting VE day 1 with a completely unacceptable reason given AFTER the lynch2) St. Daniel ninja voting Zeph day 2 with NO excuse or reason
Further to this, I just went back and had a look-see, BM was also VE's primary scum candidate. I'm not sure how long we let 'meta' be an excuse to his complete lack of contribution and awful day 1 vote.
On Day 2 of Mafia LI, wbg defended Toad multiple times on 'meta' but Toad was scum anyway.
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I'll have to go over how the voting went down yesterday. I actually voted Zephirdd pretty late myself yesterday, but my intentions had been clear in this regard for most of the day.
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On April 26 2012 23:52 Mementoss wrote:
I said this before and I'll say it again. I would really like a shot on Ottoxlol tonight, everyone voting him will still find him scummy, and it could potentially waste day 3 discussion. Also depending on Ottoxlols flip it could give us some insight to Risen saving him.
Do you find it likely we have a vig when, for example, BM was not shot in Night 1?
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So layabout, we know you think MG - do you have any other likely candidates?
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Can't you read Mattchew?
On April 27 2012 00:31 layabout wrote:
I believe that ottoxlol is town and that we are likely dealing with two town therefore we should not flip either.
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I forgive you as it's your birthday <3
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On April 27 2012 01:03 Mattchew wrote:
was distracted by the pretty colors. Basically I was gonna argue that his correlations are not well founded. Remember Risen didn't save Ottox from a lynch, he simply made it a tie favoring zeph. His vote didn't matter in the least, which is why it makes almost no sense for him as scum to switch like he did. Ottox on the other hand can easily still be scum but I don't think it has anything to do with how Risen acted/voted
It's a little bit dangerous to think like this imo.
From reading the votethread it looks like this - Ottoxlol was leading 8-7 (inc. Risen's vote) before Broodking tied it up at 8-8. So Ottoxlol is set to be lynched. Then Risen votes for Zephirdd, making it a Zephirdd lynch, regardless of his subsequent switchback.
This means that Risen saved Ottoxlol from the lynch one way or another, and could be using the switchback as a desperate/confused townie look.
I am well aware this is all wifom, but my point is that it's not necessarily correct that it makes no sense for a Risen-scum to switch like he did - it is in fact plausible.
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On April 27 2012 01:18 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 01:05 Mattchew wrote:
clarifying EBWOP: made it a tie that was still favoring zeph to be lynched If that is the case then risen's open panicking in the thread was for nothing. hmmmmm... Would i be correct that this is in fact this vote that switched the lynch from ottox to zephird? and this is the explanation for it? Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote:
##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't.
See my post above on how the voting went down, layabout.
I believe Broodking had made another post on Zephirdd before that one, see spoiler below
+ Show Spoiler +On April 26 2012 02:19 BroodKingEXE wrote:@Marvel It seems like your posting has gotten a lot better since you started so I am going to take my scum suspicions off you. I still have mixed feelings on your scattershot accusations, but they seem to be based off real facts. You asked me about Zephirdd/Sentinel/Ottoxlol. Out of the three of them I find Zephirdd pretty scummy, his last minute vote seemed rushed to me as if he was a Mafia trying to jump a bandwagon. Regardless of the fact that he mistimed the vote he made a post like this: Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 07:53 Zephirdd wrote:
Oh it seems I have an hour still. Will reconsider. I see this post as quite scummy, what does he mean by will reconsider? That statement leads me to believe that he bandwagoned the vote(which he in fact admitted) and is trying to set up a situation where he can say that the vote was rushed later. Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 09:53 Zephirdd wrote:
because it's fun to create a scumlist prior doing any analysis or whatsoever,
MidnightGladius
marvellosity
PaqMan
--insert unknown scum here--
List done out of pure feelings and zero evidence or analysis and should not be taken seriously at all
Also, may I remind you that my vote was completely and ultimately worthless, as in, even if I didn't vote VE would die. Also, keep this in your mind: if I knew VE was going to die already, and if I already knew he was a JK(as in, if I was scum), why the fuck would I instantly jump right at the deadline and put a worthless vote on him when I could simply vote, say, marvellosity?
Suddenly, I'm not looking that bad anymore, am I?
Also I agree with BMurray being vigged. I'm not sure if he is town or scum, but it would be better if he just died and we didn't had to care about him anymore. This post is also very scummy, what is the point of creating a scum list based on no evidence? He says not to take it seriously, but then why did he post it? He then says that he would have put his vote on marvel, one of the people on this "emotion-based" scum list, seems pretty fishy to me. He easily could have made a scumslip, and is trying to make up a hypothetical situation which makes him look better. He then flips around the idea of him making a case/analysis, and proceeds to say that he doesn't need to make a strong case against anyone. Recently he has been using more of his hypothetics to convince people to not vote for him. This is WIFOM reasoning and leads me to believe he is trying to mislead the town. I only see one useful post (the one about his reads on the town), but it even has a lot of unsupported conlclusions and blatant contradictions. I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post.
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