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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
How is it a 50/50 chance to confirm a second player?
If we no-lynch, there is a chance that the doc will die tonight(1/3). That will leave us at a 2v1, exactly the same scenario as if the doctor claims right now. It the doc does not die and does not give us a save, it will give us a 50/50 shot tomorrow. The doc will claim, and mafia will either cc (giving a 50/50) or won't cc (giving a different 50/50).
If the doc makes a save(~1/4 chance?), that means we will have 2 confirmed townies, leaving a 50/50 lynch. NO better than if he doesn't make a save.
If the doctor claims today, we will have the confirmed doc, leaving us a 2v1, no better than our worse case scenario for tomorrow.
It seems to me that no-lynching today is the best chance of victory. If the doc survives we are guaranteed a 50/50. If the doc dies we are no better off than right now. Thoughts?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 15 2012 10:22 Bluelightz wrote:
I said its either you/wbg and I said you were more townie in the post where I said it, I'm on the road posting from the phone so don't expect me to respond rly fast. Here I'm telling this again: I'm town and I'm not sure your town aswell. Scum hurry up wif your nk plz.
Now that the night kill is in, do you still think I am the most likely scum? If not me than who?
What do you think our best course of action is?
Dirkzor, who do you think is the final scum?
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I agree. Doc should stay anonymous and we have a nolynch today in order to have a SLIGHTLY better shot tommorrow. It's only slightly but we need as many advantages as we can get right now.
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On April 16 2012 01:41 Radfield wrote:
How is it a 50/50 chance to confirm a second player?
If we no-lynch, there is a chance that the doc will die tonight(1/3). That will leave us at a 2v1, exactly the same scenario as if the doctor claims right now. It the doc does not die and does not give us a save, it will give us a 50/50 shot tomorrow. The doc will claim, and mafia will either cc (giving a 50/50) or won't cc (giving a different 50/50).
If the doc makes a save(~1/4 chance?), that means we will have 2 confirmed townies, leaving a 50/50 lynch. NO better than if he doesn't make a save.
If the doctor claims today, we will have the confirmed doc, leaving us a 2v1, no better than our worse case scenario for tomorrow.
It seems to me that no-lynching today is the best chance of victory. If the doc survives we are guaranteed a 50/50. If the doc dies we are no better off than right now. Thoughts?
I agree. Better to have the chance to make it 50/50 tomorrow then to try finding the last scum today when the best scenario possible today is 2v1 (if the last scum doesn't counter claim of course).
About who the last one is... I'm not sure. I won't exclude anyone at this point, but BL is probably on top. He haven't made much sense so far and haven't really chipped in with any thoughts of importance. He also continiously state that he is town. I'm just not sure if he really is the last scum or just not playing well.
Johnny is posting carefully I think. Maybe scum tried to push tunkeg hard in the beginning and that was why he voted and all that jazz. When that didn't work out he went neutral. The fact that he is buddying me rubs me the wrong way.
Then there is you (Radfield) who are making a ton of sense. But that just gives me the willies since I - by reputation - know that you are good at this mafia business. Maybe I'm just paranoid... I'm just scared that you are pulling all the strings here and we are just following you around.
But tomorrow there are less suspects and it should make it easier.
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Not buddying you, just think you're least likely to be scum. Things could change that, nothing has so far.
BL seems most likely to scum but I'm not liking how "on top of town" Radfield is. Not necessarily scummy, but if scum is on top of town then it's unlikely for people to lynch him. So that's something to keep in mind. If I learned anything from LI that would be don't take for granted someone acting like a town leader is in fact town.
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Now Radfield, care to share some of your reads? So far you haven't really beside the tunkeg/BH situation n0.
Who do you think is the last scum?
BL, any thoughts?
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On April 16 2012 15:07 Dirkzor wrote:
Now Radfield, care to share some of your reads? So far you haven't really beside the tunkeg/BH situation n0.
Who do you think is the last scum?
BL, any thoughts?
Im thinking that Its either Radfield/You, Leaning on Radfield but I think we should no-lynch today, it will make my mind much-much better with 1 more guy out of the equation.
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On April 16 2012 19:45 Bluelightz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 15:07 Dirkzor wrote:
Now Radfield, care to share some of your reads? So far you haven't really beside the tunkeg/BH situation n0.
Who do you think is the last scum?
BL, any thoughts? Im thinking that Its either Radfield/You, Leaning on Radfield but I think we should no-lynch today, it will make my mind much-much better with 1 more guy out of the equation.
Why me and Radfield now? Is Johnny town?
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On April 16 2012 21:48 Dirkzor wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 19:45 Bluelightz wrote:On April 16 2012 15:07 Dirkzor wrote:
Now Radfield, care to share some of your reads? So far you haven't really beside the tunkeg/BH situation n0.
Who do you think is the last scum?
BL, any thoughts? Im thinking that Its either Radfield/You, Leaning on Radfield but I think we should no-lynch today, it will make my mind much-much better with 1 more guy out of the equation. Why me and Radfield now? Is Johnny town?
johnny is town because IMO scum wouldnt go that far on Tunkeg like johnny did
Its either you or Radfield because out of elimanation you and radfield are left out as the most not sure town reads, I'm still leaning on Radfield but depending on tonight's NK im maybe going to change.
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So your logic says that if for example I die tonight Radfield is the last one? And vice versa? I think its stupid to rule out anyone at this point. What if Johnny dies? Where does it leave you?
You say you are still leaning with Rad as the scummiest of me and him - why?
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Here for the night actions:
I WILL NOT DIE, EVER.
Scum will never kill me period. I'm a liability and an easy mislynch for scum.
Therefore I singled out my most confident town read(jwup) , There's how I got you/radfield.
IMO, you are town for example because of for example this pressure on me.
That's why I'm leaning on Radfield.
I said my reads can change because:
-Medic can Claim
-Rad/you might die.
If johnny dies:
This, I am not sure, I guess by this case if johnny dies and doesnt flip medic we can find the final scum ez.But if he does, I'm not gonna be sure anymore, but IF that really happens, I'm going to go with my most confident scum read: Radfield.
Lastly, I am town, don't deny it, Wondered why I havent died? I'm town and I'm an easy mislynch, Dirk in all the games you played with me have you not learned? Why I always live to LYLO?
Am I town? Would scum stress this topic this much?
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Before I go:
##Vote: No-Lynch
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
That's much better bluelightz. And i agree that there is no way scum will hit you tonight.
lets see what the night brings.
##vote no-lynch
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On April 16 2012 15:07 Dirkzor wrote:
Now Radfield, care to share some of your reads? So far you haven't really beside the tunkeg/BH situation n0.
Anything?
I can see where you are coming from BL. But I disagree about your logic regarding Johnny and that worries me. I'm getting paranoid now.
On April 17 2012 00:18 Radfield wrote:
That's much better bluelightz. And i agree that there is no way scum will hit you tonight.
lets see what the night brings.
##vote no-lynch
You write as if you already think BL is town? Do you?
##Vote No-Lynch
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Night 2
![[image loading]](http://drkronner.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/936927-arnold_shutup_super.jpg)
No one was Lynched!
Get your night actions in before 10:00 GMT (+00:00) tomorrow. That's 18h30m or so from now.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 17 2012 00:31 Dirkzor wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 15:07 Dirkzor wrote:
Now Radfield, care to share some of your reads? So far you haven't really beside the tunkeg/BH situation n0. Anything? I can see where you are coming from BL. But I disagree about your logic regarding Johnny and that worries me. I'm getting paranoid now. Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 00:18 Radfield wrote:
That's much better bluelightz. And i agree that there is no way scum will hit you tonight.
lets see what the night brings.
##vote no-lynch
You write as if you already think BL is town? Do you? ##Vote No-Lynch
Not at all, but at least he's giving us something to work with.
I haven't actually gone over any filters recently(or re-read the thread), and am doing my best to keep an open mind until I do. Right now any of the 3 of you could be scum. I will post my reads tonight, and do my best to leave town in good shape if I am killed. I'm pretty confident we have this.
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I would very much appreciate your reads if you die because of your experience. Will probably make it easier to make up my own paranoid mind...
How can you be confident while not having read filters btw? Seems weird unless you know something I don't.
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dead thread is dead ;;
no lynch huh? right decision because a mislynch would cost us the game.
if doc heals correctly then it's 100% win for town i think. if maf kills doc we're in a tough situation though. so this game is almost completely decided tonight.
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On April 17 2012 04:47 johnnywup wrote:
dead thread is dead ;;
no lynch huh? right decision because a mislynch would cost us the game.
if doc heals correctly then it's 100% win for town i think. if maf kills doc we're in a tough situation though. so this game is almost completely decided tonight.
How do you figure that? Best case for us is any way where its 50/50. Only way this won't be the case is if Mafia hit our medic. It would be slightly better - in the way that we have more people to find the last - with a save tonight but it would still be 50/50 with 2 confirmed town.
If mafia hit our medic it would end in a 2v1 scenario.
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2 confirmed townies makes things much easier, im not saying we auto-win but it would make it a lot easier.
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EPT
