Newbie Mini Mafia IX - Page 3

On April 16 2012 19:58 Pure-SC2 wrote:
Well well. There has been quite some activity since I started doing a complete filter review. It's interesting because it has reinforced the conclusions I came to on my own.

## Unvote


The case against Nova_Terra:

- Nova_Terra's overly emphasised townie position:

The case begins prior to the game even starting. Nova (who has been scum in previous games - I'd recommend a review of Newbie Mini Mafia VII ) is quick to distance himself and reinforce his town stance prior to the game even starting:



He's telling us he's awful town, and that he will be working on it during this game. He is trying to reinforce his town position before the game has even started.

One the game starts, his first post includes this line:



This immediately made me suspicious, as I don't understand why someone who had received a town role would need to state this. The only motive I can determine for stating this is scummy.

Nova said the following in response to Daymor who questioned this:



Again you try to distance yourself from the fact you were mafia in previous games ("you didn't feel like dealing with the stress this time around") however you have no choice over that. You may or may not have been given a role as mafia or town. I find the wording you used here to be very strange and is not the response I would've expected to Daymor's question.


- Nova_Terra's posting without contributing:

On its own I wouldn't say this means anything, and it's something I posted about earlier. But in combination with a few other things it becomes more significant.

When you do a review of Nova_Terra's early filter, essentially he repeats the same stance he has on fluff posting, complains about lack of activity and votes/unvotes a few times. This is done over 14 posts, and makes him look like the most active person in the thread, but if you actually looks at what is included in all those posts, he is actually contributing very little. I find this to be mildly suspicious and it felt like he was trying to position himself as a town leader without actually contributing.


- Nova_Terra's baseless accusation of Solohan50:

I must admit I didn't look into this when it was initially posted, and it was only after a complete filter review that I really began questioning Nova's behaviour here.

Nova stated the following:



Interesting. Ok, what else does Nova say about this?



So if I read this correctly, Nova finds Solohan50s first post scummy, and that because he's a vanilla townie and finds it scummy, another vanilla townie should be able to do the same.

Right. I'm a vanilla townie, so let's look at Solohan50's first post for the smoking gun.



My read on Solohan50's first post. He has stated his thoughts on lurker lynching (not a terrible idea, but doesn't really love it either). He likes the fact you can use it to put pressure on people to post day 1, which will hopefully lead to a better (which I read as more informed) lynch. He then goes on to say lynching a townie that hasn't posted anything provides almost no information.

Ok, so that's my read on his post. I've gone through it several times and don't feel like I'm missing anything here. It seems like a positive townie approach to me for a first post. What is it that Nova sees that I don't? What is his motivation for calling Solohan50 out based on this? I don't see a townie motivation for this, further increasing my suspicion.

Nova also said the following:


Solohan50's second post asked a question on No Lynches. He also asked this question pre-game so doesn't look like it's something he decided on bringing up after he received his role PM. There has obviously been some confusion around no lynch since this game started (I felt like the rules were clear but I guess since it wasn't explicitly stated it has caused confusion), and based on that (and the subsequent discussions and clarification) I don't think his question is suspicious.

*** I will add in relation to this that Solohan50 hasn't contributed a lot since, but in terms of this case against Nova_Terra it doesn't apply, as I'm referring to Nova's on Solohan50's first posts. Solohan50's lurky behaviour should be looked at seperately.


Continuing on....

- Nova_Terra's very defensive responses to oneplus:

This has happened since I did my filter review, and I haven't had a chance to go through this in as much detail as I'd like, but I have work to be done. I may re-visit this later if I see anything more after a further review.

Nova claims an OMGUS reaction reaction to oneplus, which I don't really see. Oneplus has his suspicions of Nova based on his own read, and it would be good for him to elaborate more on this.

However the point I focused on was the way Nova reacted. The defensive tone of his responses definitely do not sound like town, and the only motivation I can see for him posting that way is scummy.


- Nova_Terra's possible accomplices:

Based on my filter review, the two most likely accomplices to Nova_Terra: Lazermonkey and Crossfire99. The case against these two isn't strong, but I would recommend reading through their filter and looking at the way they support Nova on Solohan50.

Also, if you look at the interaction between Nova and Lazer against oneplus, it is also very defensive and nature and shows them supporting each other once again. I think this adds to my suspicion of Lazer who, other than his blind support of Nova's stance against Solohan, has seemed like a good contributing townie.


- Final thoughts on Nova_Terra:

After going through all this, and reviewing Nova's filter looking at him posting as a townie, and posting as scum, the only motivation I can see for his approach thus far (on areas where he has contributed) is scum. This makes me as confident as I can be that he is a good target to vote on for day 1.

## Vote: Nova_Terra


Final thoughts on oneplus - I agree on him being a bad townie, and he has certainly been targeted by Nova_Terra, which seems to be a good motivation for scum to target him and in a sense, further backs up my suspicions on Nova.

So what do you all think? If you don't agree, where do you think my reasoning is wrong? How do you read Nova_Terra based on your own review of his behaviour and filter?

On April 17 2012 00:07 Pure-SC2 wrote:
An interesting post Nova. I've taken some time to go through it and see how it relates to my case against you.

The comments I made about your posts before the game started were expanded on in my EBWOP. They are applicable because you were already trying to distance yourself from your previous mafia roles, which is fine. But, then you continued using that same approach once the game started which immediately rang scummy to me.

You haven't claimed to be a town leader, but from the outset of the day you placed yourself as the post monitor, telling us who was posting fluff, and how hard you were going to be on them, re-iterating the lack of activity (without contributing). That comes across to me as someone who is trying a little too hard to appear active. You already have my thoughts on that.

Regarding your comment towards oneplus:

That sounds a lot like you in regards to your suspicious of Solohan50, don't you think? We're still waiting for this insightful explanation as to why his first post was scummy.

I've re-read oneplus's filter and agree with the assessment made by Lorant, that oneplus obviously doesn't speak english natively and as such his posts take a bit more reading. Even so, I can see that he does provide some reasoning as to why he suspects you:
- Notes that Lazer and Nova are very firm to lynch someone
- Picks up on the fact that Nova constantly refers to mafia role in previous games
- Highlights Novas over reactive defensive posting to his suspicions
- Picks up on the association between Nova and Lazer that I noticed also.

* This is significantly more reasoning than you've given for your suspicions against Solohan50.



It's not just a similar view, Lazer (and to a lesser extent Crossfire) supported you in your suspicions of Solohan50 without one shred of reasoning, just like you. Rather than offer any reasoning as to why you think there is no association between you, or even offering your reasoning for suspicions on Solohan, you take a further defensive stance without offering anything.

At this stage, I don't have a scum read on Crossfire, only noted the association. I'll be looking at Lazer more closely as he has several things in his filter now that tend towards scum.



For me, this occurred when I was able to build a case I had a reasonably high level of confidence in. Which is quite a sensible approach if you think about it.

And voting for someone who is suspicious (for several reasons) is a great idea if you have that read on day 1.

Using the fact that you've created discussion as a reason not to lynch you is not a defence.



This just sounds anti-town to me.

I reviewed everyone's filter, and when I looked at my notes afterwards, I had you as the most suspicious based on the reasons already stated. I noticed that in the time I'd put that together, Oneplus and Daymor has posted a similar read.

On April 15 2012 00:46 Solohan50 wrote:
Yeah, lynching lurkers isn't a terrible idea (it's not spectacular either though), especially if you make it known ahead of time. That (should) inspire everyone to post at least a little bit, giving us more information on Day 1 and hopefully leading to better lynches. With any luck though, everyone will be active and we can avoid having to lynch a lurker. If the lurker that gets lynched Day 1 is Town, then we gain almost no information, because they haven't posted anything.

tl:dr Post, people!

On April 16 2012 15:35 Lazermonkey wrote:
Morning everyone!

So I wake up, read the thread and tbh I'm quite dissapointed in the progress made during the night. We are getting nowhere atm. We really need to stop discuss the possibility of no lynches.



I agree with you, but this would only occur if everyone had posted really good opinions and cases. We aren't even close to that point right now. The following effects of a no lynch atm would probebly be something in line with:

1. Noone is lynched
2. Mafia most likely get a kill since there is such a small chance that the roleblocker/jailer would hit the right target due to little information.
3. The killed target townie and is a lurker/person who only posted that no lynch is a good opinion.
4. No info is have been archived.



I'm not sure if noob or scum, but This has been said over 9000 times in this thread. Please post something new...

small chance that the roleblocker/jailer would hit the right target

On April 16 2012 21:19 Lazermonkey wrote:
Wow, that is some really nice analysis, Pure! Here are my random thoughts about it

Up untill this point I was quite sure that Nova wasn't scum, but now I'm starting to question it. An aspect that I think that you havn't brought up is his early game. The one thing that reallty is Pro-town about him is that he really tried his best to get the discussion going. He did some pressures and tried to get the lurkers to speak. He also was very clear about that he didn't like any fluff, although it is true he have been posting lots of posts that havn't really addded anything at all. This could be explained by the fact that we all pretty much agreed upon that lynching lurkers would be possible on day 1 and that he tried to get immune to lynches the very first day be being active. So with that in mind I think that his early game plans isn't very telling. It could've been done outof both perspectives. I'm writing as I am thinking, which is why the text above at first looks very fluffy ^^. Still think it is nice to know.

As for Solohan50, The one thing I thought was that the 2 very short posts he actually made were basically echoing what everybody had said a dozen times before him. For me, this looked like a nice way to put some pressure at him and make him contribute and post some more material, rather than actually saying that he was 100% scum. As for Nova intention tho, I have no idea.

The only thing that is problematic with your post is how late it is. I know this could be because of a thousand reasons but it does in fact make a difference. To me, most of thoose reasons could be broke down into;

1)You are a townie/blue and just havn't had the time to post.
2)You are scum and want to protect your scum-bro macheji, who I think got the most votes atm(although that seems quite unlikely to me as you set him up on your list of lurkers of people that you are fine with lynching).
3)You are scum, macheji is a townie/blue but you would rather kill Nova as you see him as a bigger threat.

I think 1 is the most likely, but all should be considered.

Atm I think the most interesting lynch would in fact be Nova. Not because he is confirmed scum in any way, but because of the possible information we could be given. If he flips town, we really need to think about Pure intention with his post.

## Unvote
## Vote Nova_Terra