EPTYou reasonably up to date with the thread?
Newbie Mini Mafia IX - Page 28
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
You reasonably up to date with the thread? | ||
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TheRavensName
United States911 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
So there is a decent chance you just get a warning, so I might cya round later in the game. For now I am going to go have my lunch, getting hungry. | ||
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TheRavensName
United States911 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
crossfire was just a blue that got hit because he was the easies blue read and we were all way off at the time. | ||
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
How I see it, the only real information we have right now is who voted for who, and seeing if that tells us anything, and trying to find the motivation. In my initial analysis of Oneplus's lynch, I excluded my suspicions from people I read as town, and to a certain extent didn't put much weight into cases made against them. Based on last nights lynch result, it's time I stopped leaning anyone as town and look at everything as objectively as possible. So for starters, the voting. Day 1: Voted for OnePlus: Daymor, Crossfire, Nova_Terra, Therapist, Lazermonkey, BlueyD, (TheRavensName as well, but he switched off 13 minutes prior to deadline) Voted for others: Pure-SC2, Solohan50, Macheji, TheRavensName, OnePlus voted for Nova_Terra Lorant voted for Crossfire Day 2: Voted for Lazermonkey: BlueyD, Pure-SC2, Solohan50, Daymore Voted for others: Nova_Terra, Lorant and Therapist voted for Pure-SC2 Macheji voted for Nova_Terra Lazermonkey voted for Solohan50 TheRavensName - missed the voting window I think that at least 2 mafia voted for Oneplus, and at least 1 voted for Lazermonkey. Interestingly, BlueyD and Daymore voted for both. I also think that the mafia team wouldn't all be voting on the same target. Therapist: Turns up 40 minutes before deadline (after 2 days absence) and puts an unsubstantiated vote on Pure-SC2 (me), due to "fairly blind faith in Nova". He is the ultimate non-contributing lurker at the moment. @Lorant - I think getting a hit on blue Crossfire was luck. I don't think he was targeted specifically because he was blue, but of course I could be wrong. My WIFOM thoughts at the time was that he was hit to discredit me, as I had fingered Nova->Lazer->Crossfire as suspicious. Now that we know Lazer was town, this seems even more likely to me. One thing I don't understand, why did Daymore post a link to his whole google doc of notes? On my initial read through I thought it was great as I could see he had very similar reads to me, and considered me town, etc etc. But later on I thought it seemed a little strange to link the doc like that. | ||
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risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
On April 20 2012 10:37 TheRavensName wrote: Am I dead Risk? No, but this is a warning to everyone. The next person who misses to vote will be modkilled. Remember there is no harm in voting early if you're not sure you will be back in time for the deadline. | ||
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
On April 20 2012 06:49 Nova_Terra wrote: Pure, one thing that is continuing to concern me is the fact that you refuse to mention or aknowledge other cases, and you continue to tunnel. Are they inferior to your own? why do you have this stance? The longer you keep this up the more i think you are scum. This is a fair question Nova. I've read everyone's cases and found many of them to be quite weak, some have contained plain incorrect information and some are based purely on WIFOM and past game meta. I didn't find anything in them that convinced me that there was someone better to vote for than Lazer. You are right, in that I've tunnelled both yourself and Lazer quite strongly since the beginning and in hindsight can see the problems with this. In the lead up to the deadline last night I became more and more convinced that Lazer was going to flip town, but couldn't see anyone I would rather vote for in his place. At the least I felt that we would have 2 days of voting behaviour to look at in order to learn something from and develop leads. I'm revisiting everyone's cases today to see if I missed anything on my first read through, plus am planning to look into some of my own leads and see if anything lines up. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
So I was tossing up between posting my google doc or trying to summarise everything within 30mins. So I decided to post my link before I went to bed. Then when the deadline got extended, well yeah. I probably didn't need to post the whole doc because I could have summarised it. But yeah in all honesty I am scratching my head as to what to do now. Mislynch and we pretty much lose. Anyway here are some quick thoughts, obviously I have a town read on Pure-SC2, so with the result of the lynch as it stands, the two candidates in my mind are two townies. So Mafia have no need to be worried at all. So therefore similar to you I think 1 may be on Lazermonkey because a lot of people thought he has scummy tendencies, so it would be easy to blend in. Then the rest would be scattered, and then from there you can't really do too much more. It's not exactly credible in the first place anyway, since it's purely speculation and WIFOM. But those are my thoughts anyway. It seems Newbie Town's always have issues anyway. I was reading up on the game prior to this one, The VIII one, I think it was Mattchew who was a coach said a lot of newbie town fall into the confirmation bias trap. They have a read, stick to it just to see if they are right or not. I thought it was an interesting bit of insight and most certainly is true of me. I had a scum read on Lazer and wanted to see his flip, and when I did my heart just sank, just sat there shaking my head. It's frustrating, because I did re-read his filter just 1hr or so before the lynch and the thinks I picked up early on didn't concern me as much any more and I started to get a slight impression he may be town. But my options where lynch him who I at least had suspicions against or lynch you who I am about the only read I am convinced of. Anyway that's enough for a late night rambling. Time for bed. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
Looking back at the voting patterns, one thing came to mind. I'm starting to get a stronger town leaning on Nova (he's flipped around so much), and I'm wondering if the mafia is hiding behind us both, i.e., they spread their sheeping across us both since we seem to be the most vocal and can support us when then know we suspecting townies in order to lend weight to our suspicions. | ||
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Lorant
Hungary112 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I think the mafia kind of have it easy in Newbie games aye. Because by it's very nature there are a handful of dumb decisions made, and they only have to maybe slip in for a couple seconds, bring what they want back into the discussion and sit back and let town go the wrong way. So I can definitely see them sitting back and not really having much to do at all. But given our current situation, where we essentially must lynch scum or lose. We can't really go after the lurkers, because the risk of missing is huge because we don't have much on them (I think about 4 or so people fall into this category). That leaves us with a tiny pool of players that are contributing on a level that allows us to form solid reads. I don't think all 3 scum would be lurking (although it is possible). So I definitely think we have a huge task ahead of us. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Lorant
Hungary112 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Maybe I should just go to bed and clear my head a bit. Just frustrating, because even with all the effort i have tried to put in I still haven't really got anywhere. | ||
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Lorant
Hungary112 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Lorant
Hungary112 Posts
On April 20 2012 23:11 Nova_Terra wrote: Excellent, now that everyone is starting to get a strong town read on me, i die. well done on that timing. GMarshal edit: What the fuck, no NSFW images at random in a mafia thread, added a spoiler for you. + Show Spoiler [NSFW] + ![[image loading]](http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100305172803/anegkyklopaideia/images/0/03/5.jpg) | ||
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