EPTyour typical "town" Day 1 sees you with fewer than 2 votes cast on average
You won "as a Serial Killer" because you fooled everyone by your play.
TL Mafia LI - Page 44
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
your typical "town" Day 1 sees you with fewer than 2 votes cast on average You won "as a Serial Killer" because you fooled everyone by your play. | ||
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Nisani201
United States1400 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
My point bringing up Storm is that I personally was trying to play as town as I could...verily, I called out the entire scumteam D1 in Storm. Ask Bugs about it, he thought I was blue. My point is that when playing as town a game as I could, I voted SEVEN times...as opposed to my average of ~2. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
The number of times someone changes their vote generally is not indicative of alignment with only one prior game for evidence. | ||
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Nisani201
United States1400 Posts
On April 10 2012 14:25 wherebugsgo wrote: The number of times someone changes their vote generally is not indicative of alignment with only one prior game for evidence. Thank you. Can we stop talking about this now? | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
Let's look not at the number of times, but the reasoning for each switch: First vote on Risen: VE had been gently pushing him before, then eventually cast a vote Second vote on Jackal: Jackal is a lurker Third vote on Tunkeg: More votes are on Tunkeg, and no one is joining him on Jackal Fourth vote on Janaan: More votes are on Janaan, and no one is joining him on Tunkeg Fifth vote on Hassy: VE thinks that he can convince enough people to sheep with him on Hassy Sixth vote on Janaan: VE realizes that not enough people will sheep with him on Hassy The first four votes look pretty opportunistic to me, and the last two easily could have been motivated by a desire to force a no-lynch, which I think would have been even worse than a mislynch. | ||
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Katina
United States454 Posts
Personally, MidnightGladius post about VE's voting just sold me. I encourage everyone to read through his filter. To shut up wherebugsgo, the point isn't about him switching votes so many times. It's about his inconsistency through day 1. Seriously. You ignoring the main point about MidnightGladius's accusations says a lot about your alignment. Thanks for making it easier on the rest of the town. <3 Froggy boy still needs to die. Cha Ching | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
As for VE - I think MG is trying to pick up on what I called out when VE suggested lynching lurkers rather than Tunkeg, Janaan or ST. The switches are fine, and if you don't like how he went back on his stance (vig lurkers lynch scum) then that's that but I don't see how that warrants suspicion. | ||
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Nisani201
United States1400 Posts
On April 10 2012 14:30 Nisani201 wrote: Thank you. Can we stop talking about this now? MG's case on you is bullshit and suffers from the usual confirmation bias that happens when someone takes a filtert and makes an "analysis".You don't look scum to me. I know I haven't posted my scum reads other than Sputnik. However tomorrow I will look into potential badguise. Until then, keep arguing about stuff. Good night. | ||
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Nisani201
United States1400 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
...........|..................................|....................................|..................................| What I wanted.........What I settled for.......What I avoided...What you're pushing Anything else you're trying to sell is either misrepresentation or misunderstanding. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
Nisani, those are bold but empty words. What exactly is bullshit about my case? What do you mean by confirmation bias, and where is it distorting my reasoning? VE switched an unusually large number of times and gave weak and contradictory reasoning for each switch. That stands on its own, as far as I reckon. johnny, are you honestly saying that VE is your strongest townread right now? sloosh, if you don't think that switching policy stances twice in the course of one Day is scummy, then we're just going to have to disagree and move on. I don't see how you can justify his switches so easily, though. Am I wrong in suggesting that scum would love a no-lynch on Day 1? Also, if you're not suspicious of Toad or VE, then are you still placing your suspicions on Tunkeg and ST? Good night, and I look forward to continuing our discussion tomorrow. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Anyway I'm not following the argument (I think it's just disagreement) and I agree with Nisani that we should be moving on, night is definitely not the best time to bring up cases because mafia can act upon the ideas by changing their hits. This can happen whether or not your case is valid. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On April 10 2012 15:27 MidnightGladius wrote: sloosh, if you don't think that switching policy stances twice in the course of one Day is scummy, then we're just going to have to disagree and move on. I don't see how you can justify his switches so easily, though. Am I wrong in suggesting that scum would love a no-lynch on Day 1? Also, if you're not suspicious of Toad or VE, then are you still placing your suspicions on Tunkeg and ST?. I didn't like it, but its hardly of significance to get too ruffled over. What else would you do if you weren't that strongly convinced with the current pool of candidates? You have to separate actions and intentions: yes he did bring up Hassybaby. Yes, he played a part in bringing him up as a serious counterwagon late in the day. But it is clear that he thought (/still thinks) that HB was scum and wanted to vote him but seeing how not enough votes were garnered he avoided the no lynch by going back to Janaan, which was to him an acceptable (but not optimal) 2nd choice. My primary suspicions are on HB and ghost_403. I never once commented on ST as no one has built a clear case against him (it came in bits and pieces and I didn't really follow). With Tunkeg ... I need more from him to make a clearer judgement. Especially with him straight up breadcrumbing something or other. Was leaning scum for bad play, leaning town for his "last word" posts. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On April 10 2012 15:34 wherebugsgo wrote: If scum would love a no-lynch, VE going out of his way to ensure there was a lynch would make him look more town, no? Anyway I'm not following the argument (I think it's just disagreement) and I agree with Nisani that we should be moving on, night is definitely not the best time to bring up cases because mafia can act upon the ideas by changing their hits. This can happen whether or not your case is valid. I thought you should treat night just like day? What should we do then? | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
The reason you don't want to discuss lynch targets for the next day too much is that you can influence mafia hits. Imagine I were to say VE is scum and that if I die you all should lynch him. I'm wrong, but mafia shoots me, so a bunch of people try to kill VE the next day. The best way to avoid that is to post your case(s) directly before the deadline, when you know night actions are final. We might consider making a list of players to DT/vig in the meantime; direct blues, that is. There can be a problem with this as well normally but with the proportion of newer players it'd be a good idea IMO so that we don't lose townies unnecessarily to vig shots or waste DT checks (though it's hard to waste a DT check) To anyone who is a vig: if you don't feel comfortable shooting, I advise that you don't. I will try to come up with some names that I'd shoot after I wake up, but if you don't agree with any of those names you're better off not shooting. Vig and DT lists are usually just guidelines (though if you ignore them and shoot townies people will be mad) | ||
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