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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Hiro: you voted for Solohan because "you didn't want mafia to control the vote". You said Kohbee is completely pro-town simply on the basis that he was talking, but that's not why you voted Solohan at the time. Town, we still have a chance at winning this (and as far as I can see, town very rarely win newbie/mini games) if we can keep the discussion going. First stop is omnom posting something containing serious discussion (whether at IPL or not - do you want town to win?) | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 07 2012 10:34 omnomMuffins wrote: I have already made my serious post and got schooled on the rules. Whoever the second mafia is, I don't know. I can't say anything that I haven't said to defend myself. I find no reason to post the same messege repeatedly in the thread. Add the mafia's kill tendencies into the game and anyone who leads the discussion is killed. Well that's no use, is it? You haven't said anything of note since the Kohbee lynch. There's only a few of us left, so "errrr, I dunno" doesn't quite cut it at this point. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 08 2012 04:07 strongandbig wrote: So as far as I can tell, we have the following setup for the second mafia. Hiropro says it's omnommuffins. I say it's probably marvellosity but I'm not sure. Marvellosity says it's hiropro. Omnommuffins who do you think the remaining mafia player is? It would be good to have your opinion. I've read through your posts in this thread since the Kohbee lynch, and I don't see anything from you on that. Grats for totally ignoring my point on the voting on Day 1. I'm starting to think you're doing so wilfully. In the meantime ##Vote: Solohan50 | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
The real point is that it was 4-3 (like I said, not 4-2, please PLEASE read my post) and I saved Kohbee. Who cares that people could safely claim bla bla, that's irrelevant. Please tell me my MAFIA motivation for SAVING Kohbee from the vote Day 1 followed by going after him superhard during the next day. Please tell me why as Mafia, when Kohbee claims blue, I would not happily condemn him to the lynch with no fuss whatsoever. Your whole long post goes on about analysing ACTIONS, my actions were to NOT get the free blue lynch and then put my neck on the line by going after him hard the next day. Why would I do that? Makes no sense. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 08 2012 07:10 strongandbig wrote: My point is that you couldn't just do nothing. You had to either save him or not save him, thereby killing him. If you did the latter, it would have been obvious that you killed him after he claimed that he was the cop. If you did anything other than save him, it would have been suspicious. When I say that people who turned down the "free lynch" are less suspicious, I mean people who didn't have to act. You had to act or else you would have been modkilled. The mafia motivation is that it makes more sense for mafia to save the cop, thereby gaining town cred, and then roleblock him, than it does for mafia to publicly kill him after he made his roleclaim. The only time it makes sense for mafia to have him lynched after his roleclaim is if they can do it through inaction. Then why would I have then gone after Kohbee so hard the next day? It makes no sense. I could easily have voted for Kohbee the first day on the basis that his cop claim was a desperate mafia move (as many people have said in this thread). As mafia then, I would save the cop (who everyone would have acknoweldged could be argued as mafia desperation) only to want to roleblock him and then go after him super-hard the next day? Your entire arguments reeks of bullcrap and I don't like it. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
You bang on about ACTIONS, my actions were to save Kohbee the blueclaimer from the lynch only to go after him superhard the next day. Those are not mafia ACTIONS. Geddit? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Meanwhile, we need to hear from omnommuffins. We need to hear what he promised us On April 08 2012 11:58 omnomMuffins wrote: I am leaning towards HiroPro as mafia. Will do a whole post on why once this whole GSTL drama dies down. I reserve the right to change that opinion when I go through the filters again. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
My thoughts on the night-time kill: if omnom isn't mafia, anyone could be killed as long as omnom is left alive as a now too obvious last day lynch. If he is mafia, he would probably kill hiro. This is why I don't like inactivity  | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Best case scenario was probably that omnom was mafia, anyone died, omnom got lynched and town wins. Worst case scenario is that omnom wasn't mafia, random guy got killed, and the last remaining mafia managed to have omnom lynched. We're in the middle case scenario where omnom isn't mafia but was hit. This is extremely surprisingly to me. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I've been jotting down things in notepad, and I've realised I can't sit here in silence, because: a) if Hiro is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to lynch me with strongandbig's help, who has been suspecting me for much of the game b) if strongandbig is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to bring Hiro over to his case against... me again. Now, for some reason mafia thought that killing omnom muffins would be the strongest move, principally because they thought they could get someone else lynched with someone else's help, saving themself. What I can't quite get my head around is that omnom was a good and likely lynch target for anyone involved, it's why this is so tricky. One thing I can think of is this: omnom clearly stated she was going to make a case against Hiro, and as she flipped townie, we can presume that clearly she meant to make a case. This is a decent reason for omnom to be the nightkill, especially given omnom's erratic posting pattern, the kill could occur before omnom made her case (as it indeed occurred). Taking this further into some if buts - Hiro leaves omnom alive, and kills me. omnom goes on to make her case against Hiro, which coupled with my previous case and subsequent death, would be fairly compelling evidence against Hiro. Or, Hiro kills s&b, leaving - me and omnom, both of whom have either already or are planning to make cases against Hiro. Hiro could also be heavily relying on s&b not taking any of this at any worth, because s&b would be thinking of me as mafia. If s&b was mafia, I can't see good enough reasoning for him not leaving omnom alive. This post has been a bit of a journey of discovery for me. But, based on: a) my previously made case vs Hiro b) s&b's longstanding suspicion of me c) omnom's suspicion of hiro and the nightkill only making sense from hiro's perspective, I firmly believe that HiroPro is scum. ##Vote: HiroPro | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 10 2012 06:48 strongandbig wrote: However, that also smells a lot like the analysis you made on the fourface killing: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). ##Vote: Kohbee And the post that Kohbee pointed out in his pre-death post: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote: If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical. Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum? ... In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote: Bah. Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment. If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself. So we should know at the end of the night what is what. ... He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is. I also note that Solohan made the same sort of analysis: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. It sounds like fourface was killed because the mafia thought that it would help them convince town to lynch Kohbee. This has to be the biggest regret-that-I-didn't-know-would-be-a-regret for me in the game. I happen to make a circumstancial argument vs Kohbee, that, unfortunately for me, Solohan also used. However, it was only a part of why I thought Kohbee was scum (I made several other points within that same post). Now, if Kohbee had flipped scum, that circumstancial evidence would have proven correct. It's only because Kohbee happened to flip blue after I voted for him (and you incidentally) that this now looks incriminating. At the time it seemed logical enough (the people having arguments with Kohbee WERE dying after all). On April 10 2012 06:48 strongandbig wrote: Other than that, there's hiro's post yesterday, which seems town-ish to me in light of omnom dying. The reason for this is that it undermines any case hiro would make today against either of us being scum. Amongst the large amount of WIFOM I'm desperately trying to avoid posting, I'd like to at least propose this could be viewed in a different light. Hiro has been going after omnom, makes this point purposefully looking townie, and then when 'shockingly' omnom turns up dead, he can go "aww shucks, seems I was wrong and one of you two must be mafia! *hops on s&b's case against marv*" Hiro doesn't have to make a case when you're already on mine. Again, I appreciate this is WIFOM, but please consider it among other things. On April 10 2012 06:48 strongandbig wrote: HOWEVER! Here's a post from solohan that makes me feel very uncertain about the idea that he and marvellosity could have been scum together: I have to thank you here - I didn't even think to look at Solohan's filter! But this is bang on the money. He explicitly connects us both. Added to this is the post I made at the time where I believed I would be the prime target after Kohbee's killing (I was naive about Solohan apparently): On April 04 2012 22:28 marvellosity wrote: Responsibility for my actions? You are the first person I'm pushing hard for a lynch, Kohbee. I am well aware that if you get lynched and you flip blue, I will be #1 target. In the meanwhile, Hiro is ninjaing me and following the established plan of trying to confirm s&b's suspicions of me. Good stuff. On April 10 2012 07:35 HiroPro wrote: Only mafia know the reasons behind the night kills and I think speculating about why certain people were killed is extremely WIFOM and distracts from actually looking for mafia. No, it IS important and relevant as the last major action taken in this game. strongandbig, I ask you the following. Consider that I am mafia, and we will consider the nightkill. It could go down as it did: 1) I kill omnom. S&B has suspicions of me and Hiro can bandwagon this. 2) I kill HiroPro. This leaves s&b and omnom as town. omnom's mafia read just died, and s&b has been pushing marv all game. omnom has to form a new opinion, with... only s&b's large arguments against marv, vs marv's one-liner about being annoyed by s&b (please consider I said I had town-reads on you at least twice this game) 3) I kill strongandbig. Now I am left with my case against Hiro, plus omnom muffins - who also had Hiro as prime target. There is one possible downside to this - for whatever reason, omnom thinks s&b's death is dodgy because he suspected me. But, the real fact is that THERE WOULD BE TWO PEOPLE GUNNING FOR HIRO, AND ZERO GUNNING FOR MARV. Also note that you s&b are probably the strongest collective town-read, so your death would not be surprising in of itself. Please, and I mean please pretty please, tell me why I as mafia would choose option 1 over option 3. It simply makes no sense. Like, I can't stress this question enough. Leaving you alive when I would have me and someone else who stated that Hiro is their mafia is just madness. Why, oh why, would I kill the ONE person about to join in on my case? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
As mafia, I must must choose 3) as my nightkill. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Why? This is the last day with the entire result on the line. What of it you say? strongandbig has posted twice in Bastard Mafia but not at all here. What the hell is that about? I'm now just confused. I didn't like HiroPro's comment about ignoring the nightkill because it's important. The night-kill is practically what clears me about being mafia. Whoever is town, you have to understand this. Now wait, you say, couldn't you have killed omnommuffins with a view to claim you wouldn't possibly do that and clear yourself? Yes, yes I could. But it's come down to me pleading with the other townsperson to simply believe me. Killing strongandbig would have given me FAR higher chances for victory. So, I've thought Hiro was the scum. But now s&b goes posting in other games without posting here and I'm all a flutter. Whoever is town, this is our last chance to make this right. Please help me. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
But how can you possibly believe that my chances in that situation would be higher than killing you? THAT is the question. Nothing more. I'll put it as a 2 parted, related question: 1) Would my chances as mafia of victory be higher in killing strongandbig and having my choice of wagon be higher than killing omnom and having to plead with the townsperson to win? a) yes b) no Conclusion: ... 2) Do you think I'm stupid enough to have thought that pleading a wifom case on the final day was a better play than killing you and lynching someone else during the final day? a) yes b) no Conclusion: ... Basically, do you think I'm an idiot? To reiterate one more time, I COULD HAVE set this up to say "why would I do that". But clearly my chances were far higher in killing strongandbig regardless. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
At least now I'm certain it is s&b who is town. | ||
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