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Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VIII
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Mementoss
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On March 11 2012 05:17 Nova_Terra wrote: I think i'm a little too excited for this game. Same lol | ||
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On March 11 2012 16:01 FirmTofu wrote: I say we lynch a lurker. Take your pick. 6.) InfernOokami7 7.) koritora 9.) Sbrubbles If they talk, don't kill them. Pretty simple concept I'm sure we can all agree on. Lurkers aren't going to help anyone. While I agree that lurkers are useless, policy lynches are even more useless/scummy. It forces the town down a path that, and allows the mafia to refer back to policy, without ever discusses its opinion. Its best to decide around voting time which is the best path to go, if you're cases aren't fully fleshed out, lynching a lurker is a good option until you can put more pressure and get more discussion out of your suspects. I see that this is pressure to get everyone to start talking, but just putting it out there that I don't think policy lynches should be followed. Also I updated the list to the recent people who haven't talked yet. + Show Spoiler + On March 11 2012 15:13 Seviro wrote: That would be true if Mafia were not killing someone during the night. Currently out of 12 players we have 9 town and 3 scum so if we decide to do a random lynch, we have 75% chance of killing a townie and then on Day 2 we would be 7 town and 3 scum where in a no lynch scenario we would be 100% to lose only 1 person. Of course, it is hard to tell anything this early in the day, we will have to wait for everyone to post their thought before we make a decision but I will state right now that I am 100% against a random lynch because it is really too risky to do it this early in the game. I'm for a no lynch until proven otherwise. I agree that the mafia kill gives you information to a point, but mafia can be clever in their day 1 kill and can purposely tunnel the town in whatever direction they see fit, or kill a townie with no outstanding opinions on cases. This situation leads to no information/ a confused town. At least through a town produced lynch with have control over the situation put pressure on all players to explain their opinions and votes, thus up the discussion, easier to analyse in day 2. Like mentioned above worst comes to worst, if we do not have a strong case going with a lurker lynch at least gets rid of anti-town, has the possibility of being scum, and gives a flip to analyse the actions of others before that vote. Silence, bandwagoning, etc.etc. | ||
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On March 12 2012 01:51 Seviro wrote: Here I don't see how he is different than you about posting just after being accusiing of lurking since your first post was just after FirmTOfu called the current people in the game that hadn't post at this time But I guess you're right since he didn't post at all since then, where you have. I just think that FOSing someone this early in the game (8 hour ago was early I mean) after only a single post is a bit suspicious but I do agree that he is not clear of suspicion with his one post, not worth a FOS yet though I agree with this post, it seems NovaTerra is eager to FoS despite how early in the game it was, which seems a little suspicious. But, it is most likely just a pressure play, to get the discussion rolling, and people talking. On the other hand, cosines slip is a bit odd as well. Not defending it makes it very suspicious for sure so I would like to hear a reply from him before I commit to any FoS or further discuss what I think of him. Also for the non-posters I would like to hear their thoughts too. Although remember this is a noobie game and probably many players first, so they might not even know the game started. They should start showing up pretty soon I would say. | ||
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On March 12 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote: Isnt that exactly what i said? i just want him to start posting and defend himself. I dont/didnt consider FOS a big commitment, sorry if i confused anyone and made it seem like i was gonna vote him. i still think hes totally suspicious for all the things i just said. Re-reading I missed this quote from you "i definitely think it is worth an FOS seeing as nothing else was happening and i want him to clarify it up. its not like i voted for him yet or anything.". Which does show that what you were saying was just a pressure play. The original post however just seemed a bit more aggressive. Initially when I read over it, it just seemed like a newbie mistake, not understanding the acronym. As time goes on, without a response it is getting more suspicious. Can't really take that any further until we get a response. Also there is another odd post that I would like to point out. On March 11 2012 21:43 Eleanthas wrote: Ok. Just got first chance to get on computer. And I think that we should lynch lurker maybe. They are anyways pretty worthless if they don't speak. This is his only post. To put this in context it was about an hour and a half after NovaTerras post about cosine. He comes in posts a one liner, that completely ignores the discussion at hand, cosine case, and wants to commit to lynching a lurker, rather than making a case to lynch. Lynching a lurker is a good town decision if there is no case at the end of the day, but purposing it as the correct option at the start of the day is scummy. Mafia can avoid getting lynched just by being active and letting a townie lurker die and get 2 for 1 on day 1. Either he is just skimming the thread, or trying to take the attention off of the cosine case by just ignoring it. Also its ironic that he wants to lynch a lurker, yet he only has 2 lines above the people who didn't post anything at all. I would like to hear his opinion on the cosine case at hand. Where my head lies right now in terms of suspicion is: 1. cosine 2. Eleanthas 3. Inferookami, Sbrubbles, koritora (aka the "lurkers") Am interested in hearing responses from all the above. Day 1 is a tough day for town and only by being active and making topics of discussion will we be able to weed out the scum. | ||
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@sbrubbles/Nova_terra discussion: I don't think sbrubbles first two posts were fluff/useless they were both effective at pressuring responses out of the two people he directed it at, nova_terra and koritora. The reason I think he was drawn into getting a response out of Nova_terra is because so far he has shown to be an emotional player. Seems to get frustrated/offended if people question his style or motives. That being said, I think that's all I think of him based on his posts now, an active emotional townie. At least his activity spark discussion which is overall good for the town. Sbrubbles getting a response from koritora was important cause it showed he's at least paying attention to the thread, unlike Elenathus who hasn't responded to the suspicions on him. @Elenathus Still hasn't responded to the couple of claims from different players calling him suspicious. A bit scummy, but not enough responsiveness to show true signs of being scum. @Firmtofu I find this case a bit interesting. Posts twice early, to get out of the "lurking" zone. Lets look at these posts: On March 11 2012 11:49 FirmTofu wrote: A no lynch is always better than a lynch unfounded in evidence. Or is it? We can watch the who votes on who. We can observe who listens to who. We can deduce who has a inherently positive disposition to who. I find myself sounding rather like an owl :/ A confusing fluff post. Says one thing, but than questions it in the next sentence. Wishy washy behaviours. Onto post 2. On March 11 2012 16:01 FirmTofu wrote: I say we lynch a lurker. Take your pick. 6.) InfernOokami7 7.) koritora 8.) Eleanthas 9.) Sbrubbles 10.) cosine 12.) Nova_Terra If they talk, don't kill them. Pretty simple concept I'm sure we can all agree on. Lurkers aren't going to help anyone. If they talk, don't kill them. Great, as expected everyone talked. Now what firmtofu? Then says the sentence in bold. Calls lynching lurkers the best option, and talking for the town saying we agree on it. However, at the time, most people were trying to pressure people into talking and actually putting a day 1 case together with an option for a lurker lynch if the cases don't flesh out. Ironically, after he posts this he just lurks. Also before the game he states how he is no n00b and actually participated in many mafia. He is an enthusiast, so his lack of posting shouldn't be because of a noob not reading the thread, or someone who lacks interest in the game. So why the lurking? He may just be busy, but I think the way he assumed/pushed the lurker lynch. And the inconsistentness between his first 2 posts --> Goes from no lynch w/o evidence, to better to lynch regardless, to we should make cases on what people say, to lurker lynch. I'm not saying he's scum for sure, but I think this is suspicious. I am looking forward to hear his response, and will appropriately judge more from there. @activity of the game: we are about 12.5 hours away from voting deadline, and I feel like we need to be more active in order to put a lynch case that most can agree on together. As of now, there is no strong case for a lynch, neither is there a general agreement on the lynch. Only upped discussion and analysis will help us here. | ||
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##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
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On March 13 2012 05:09 Nova_Terra wrote: Truthfully i have a feeling that this vote will end up mislynching a townie. I think a mafia would be defending themselves right now. even so, i dont see how we could get much of a better lynch.... If you don't think it has a chance to flip scum, then why are you jumping on the bandwagon to vote? Shouldn't you be either pushing another case or voting for a no-lynch... | ||
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Also yeah, at least it gave some information in the way that it shows how people are voting, when the pressure is on right before the vote, and how it contradicts their statements during the day. As the above posts have said kori starts being suspicious of no-lynchers, then votes no-lynch. Could this be a desperate attempt to have I-told-ya so moment for today? To prove his innocence, that he was not part of the Tofu vote? Seems awfully odd. We will have to hear his response. | ||
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On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas Good analysis post Phagga, its hard to do any follow up analysis with heavy lurking going on in the thread. We need people to post/respond to pressure so we can analyse more play, and don't end up with another firmtofu situation. So far what your saying is on the same track of thought I was thinking. I also agree with the suspects for DT check in that order. I'm worried that we don't have a DT though the last mini I played in is almost finishing up and it's looking like there was no DT. Also if there is a DT be careful about a claim slip. If you check someone and need to push or defend, make sure you have a case to back it up. Either a) You will be forced into a claim too early. b) People think you are crazy/scum. c) Makes your role too obvious to mafia. Also something harder to discuss is the case if we have a medic. We obviously can't say who to protect outright, or the mafia will just avoid that person. But maybe mention an idea of a couple people to try and get a successful save. All and all I'm not 100% sure what to talk about in the night. Other than power role ideas/ previous lynch. I feel like last game I played I had a good hard analysis in the night that lead to my death. And the analysis was buried by mafia in day 2. Right now I have my suspicious, but nothing developed much further than my previous analysis post. Need people to be more active before I can put together any cases. Lurking town lets the mafia safely lurk beside them. So keep it active folks. | ||
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On March 14 2012 14:13 Seviro wrote: GG sbrubbles, be sure that we'll avenge your death. At first I was like why kill him, he was not really active, did not really help the town the first day and I didn't see him being a threat for anyone. Now after looking at his filter, his death give me some pointers. First, only 2 post of him contain some sort of analysis/suspicion. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 10:45 Sbrubbles wrote: Sup guys! My first post in this game, sorry it took so late! It's hard to read someone based on the first half of the first day. On this whole Nova Terra/Cosine discussion, the only thing that stood out to me was Nova Terra's behavior, accusing and pushing on cosine (in a somewhat impatient manner), turning defensive when he's called out on it and then forgiving cosine after his post, seeming willing to go to the next topic. Being overly aggressive is not a usual day 1 mafia trait, but quickly turning defensive if called out some something is. Still, he is being active, so time will tell whether it was just a bit of town inexperience/carelessness or something more. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 23:29 Sbrubbles wrote: You didn't accuse him? Short of actually voting for the fellow, threatening to vote for someone is as accusatory as it gets: + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 01:57 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, it was a funny coincedence that he posted that right before i woke up. i also pointed out the post before how the suspicion should also be on me. The thing is though, his post was extremely messed up and seemed very scummy. i definitely think it is worth an FOS seeing as nothing else was happening and i want him to clarify it up. its not like i voted for him yet or anything. On March 12 2012 01:59 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: and if cosine doesnt post and we dont get any other leads i feel that he would be a good lynch candidate. Also, why so angry? Why do you insist (once again) on explaining the motives for your change of atitude? I pointed out that you were quick to turn defensive (or frustrated, as you say) when you were called out on it and it is my opinion that this is suspicious behavior, but that this doesn't matter for now because it is not worth it to push on a talkative (potential) mafia because there will be plenty of time for you to slip up later on if you really are scum. Now your answer is to threaten me, calling me suspicious? Anyway, question here: if the we agree to lynch a lurker, how are we gonna go about it? Bandwagon on the first non-replied accusation? At this point, besides Elean, we can consider a Inferno as a lurker. His post may not be contradictory like Elean (as in, he doesn't call himself worthless and suggests himself to be lynched), but he also hasn't contributed to the thread. Firmtofu looked like he was gonna participate but also hasn't said anything. In both of them, he state his suspicion on the early behaviour of Nova_Terra, maybe he was on something here. So I looked up Nova_Terra's filter and noticed so good thing. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 14:58 Nova_Terra wrote: What is your point here? I didnt accuse him, i fos'ed him. two co pletely separate things, at least in my eyes. The pyshing on him was wanting him to respond, as was the point of my fos. I also wanted other people, like yourself, to come out of their lurking and post on this. I got frustrated when they started saying Nova_Terra is extremely eager to FoS because i was like... OH Really?!?! and then they went on to use my logic to say that he was suspicious. thats why i was mad. not exactly defensive, but frustrated at the town. Then, cosine posted exactly what i had been looking for, generating intelligent discussion. if by "willing to go onto the next topic" you mean "making new ideas that help the town and dont tunnel one person" i agree. please dont discredit my posting by calling it "inexperience/carelessness or something more" especially when this is your FIRST POST. later on i will come and explain why YOUR post seems suspicious to me. for now, im thinking eleanthas. In this one, he confront Scrubbles after he called him out on his early agressiveness, saying that it was to have some sort of conversatioin going out but also adding that he was frustrated by the town for not agreeing with him. Then he add to not "discredit his post by calling it inexperience/carelessness" where in fact Scrubbles was in fact only giving him some sort of excuse for what he posted earlier. As Scrubbles said, being defensive over such a small thing is suspicious to me. He then end his post on a semi-random call on eleanthas by saying that he is "thinking him". This way of wording it is like he want us to start pressuring eleanthas ourselves without stating it. That one-line call bugs me out a lot. He then tell why he thinks Scrubbles post was suspicous. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 17:09 Nova_Terra wrote: I just want to point out like posts like this are scummy. Not making any “accusations” or anything. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. As you can see, these are all things that one may notice when reading a guide as to how scum should play. Why would Scrubbles throw the blame on him when he was not even targetted at all. I mean it's not like Scrubbles was our main target and he wanted to put the spot on another one whereas it is exactly waht Nova_Terra is doing by turning his post against him. He is dodging the fact that Scrubbles want more explanation about his early FOS by implying that there is nothing more to add and that Scrubbles is just wanting to bring up old discussion whereas it was legitimate of him to want some more since he was not convince of his innocence yet. See point 2, that is exactly what Nova do. What he did before on Eleanthas. Also, that was not what Scrubbles was doing he just happen to have come online after the veil of suspicion was lifted on Nova and he just wanted some clarification. So well at this point pretty self-explanatory. Finally I will quote myself. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 08:36 Seviro wrote: Oh god i'm late to the party today, Real life can be a whore I think you would be better voting for a no lynch because voting randomly for someone like this seems a bit scummy in my opinion but i guess you just didn't notice that you could just vote no lynch I think by voting on someone else since Tofu was most likely dead anyways, he wanted to not be associated with his death since he knew he was a townie (if he is a scum of course) and that kind of worked. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas in his post Phagga write a global analysis of everyone that vote for the lynch without touching to those who didn't. If I'm correct, that was quite a nice play from Nova. So Nova_Terra I can't wait for your answers. That said, I'm going to bed ##Big FOS:Nova_Terra Wow, long post. I also was surprised when I seen this mafia kill. I immediately thought the same thing that mafia kills are usually motivated by people who on the right track for hunting scum. The only person to put relatively any pressure on NovaTerra was Sbrubbles. Of course this is just WIFOM situation, as the mafia could just be trying to mess with the town there is no way of knowing. But I do find it interesting the way NovaTerra replied. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 14:58 Nova_Terra wrote: What is your point here? I didnt accuse him, i fos'ed him. two co pletely separate things, at least in my eyes. The pyshing on him was wanting him to respond, as was the point of my fos. I also wanted other people, like yourself, to come out of their lurking and post on this. I got frustrated when they started saying Nova_Terra is extremely eager to FoS because i was like... OH Really?!?! and then they went on to use my logic to say that he was suspicious. thats why i was mad. not exactly defensive, but frustrated at the town. Then, cosine posted exactly what i had been looking for, generating intelligent discussion. if by "willing to go onto the next topic" you mean "making new ideas that help the town and dont tunnel one person" i agree. please dont discredit my posting by calling it "inexperience/carelessness or something more" especially when this is your FIRST POST. later on i will come and explain why YOUR post seems suspicious to me. for now, im thinking eleanthas. This reply is very defensive. He FoS'd him, but in an aggressive manner to get the whole town on board early, at least for a thought. By being aggressive and FoS an early proof of innocence, doing what is good for the town.Also by the same most people would be thinking that no mafia would be that aggressive early game. Is that what he wants us to think? Then he goes on to state Eleanthas is his most suspicious at the moment. Then bam, change of though Sbrubbles is his suspicious now. OMGUS sorta attitude. You think i'm suspicious well that makes you suspicious kind of defensive manuever. On March 12 2012 17:09 Nova_Terra wrote: I just want to point out like posts like this are scummy. Not making any “accusations” or anything. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. As you can see, these are all things that one may notice when reading a guide as to how scum should play. Arguably, you are contributing on close to the same level as Koritora. The main thing is that you don’t really add anything except with disagreeing with other people. To you as well, what are your thoughts on cosine and Eleanthas in particular? It seems that you ignored most of the discussion relating to this. I have the same thoughts on this as Seviro, basically, but i'll quickly go through it. 1. "Throws blame on others." Why would he do this? No one suspected Sbrubbles. 2."Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion" - At that point discussion was discussion, and overall your argument wasn't exactly strong, so it was more like disagreeing not , not understanding. 3. "Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness" - Trying to give a reason for your defensiveness if you were town 4. "Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious." - I think he was just against early FoS because he wasn't confident in his read on you without more posts. Not because he didn't want to bring further attention to himself. Also as stated before, the vote change by Nova_Terra was weird. He didn't push the town to get off of Tofu's case until it was too late to lose majority. Does this make him innocent, just because he didn't have a final vote for a townie. Well it looks like that is the way he was trying to make it look. Also I noticed something else that was a bit weird. Maybe just a coincidence. The connection between Phagga and Nova_Terra 1. Only 2 people to have suspicion on Sbrubbles. Phagga and Nova_Terra. I've already shown Nova's so here is Phaggas post. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 18:33 phagga wrote: Where is FirmTofu? He posted a lurker list 5 hours into the game (which is VERY early for a lurkerlist) and has not posted since then. If we would hold him up to his own standard, he is lurking very hard. You can see his filter here I read through all the filters, and besides FirmTofu the following people are rather suspicious to me: - Eleanthas (Only posted a one liner) - koritora (not posting anything of value) - sbrubbles (only two posts in rapid succession where he basically calls out lurkers and fluff, only to disappear again). IMO, if there is a DT out there, these four would be possible check targets. What do you guys think about it? Also, if none of them adds anyhting significant in the next 6 hours, my vote will go to one of these four. Soft deadline 8 hours before is ok with me. Also, as a heads up, I generally won't be around on deadline, as it is at 3 am in my timezone. By final vote will normally be casted around 5 to 3 hours before deadline. --> Also maybe trying to push a waste of DT check onto Sbrubbles? 2. Another agreeance on the DT check, again maybe trying to lure out a Blue or waste a check? + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. 3. First to defend Nova_Terra + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote: Seviro, while I like your analysis on a first glance, I would like to note that you start your case with some heavy WIFOM. We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. However, I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time. --> Doesn't really go into the case, just dis regards it because it has some WIFOM. When really, there was a lot of WIFOM but there were some other good points too, that he didn't post his opinion on. Adds some fluff about trying to guess what the mafia is up to is useless. Well usually finding what the mafia are up to leads to them, and it all starts making sense. Or you find a mafia, then you find what they were up to and make a connection that way. So yes eventually mafia motives are relevant. 4. Leaves Nova_terra out of his analysis because of the vote switch. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas Even though the vote switch does not prove innocence or town so this seems a bit odd. Unless it was pre-planned. FirmTofu already had the majority, so Nova_Terra could switch. Phagga could then post an analysis post, to look town, while leaving out any analysis of his scum buddy Nova_Terra, without looking suspicious because of the vote switch. These are just some things I noticed and my thoughts for now. But as of now, I'm leaning towards ##FOS: Nova Terran | ||
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@Phagga: + Show Spoiler + On March 15 2012 02:35 phagga wrote: I am cutting down to the part that is about me. 1.) Making DT check lists is a way to get town more active. It is even mentioned in BloodyC0bblers Post "TL Town Breakdown / Analysis". + Show Spoiler + Towns lately talk too many generalities, and not enough specifics. People will open day 1 with discussion of how their blues could or could not perform that game. While this isn’t a bad place to start, as specifics are never mentioned it lets the mafia easily blend in. Every player roughly knows what the players should be doing with x blue role. However, if you instead bring in specifics: Detective checklists Medic lists Make watch lists of players These sort of topics put names down. As soon as a name hits a list discussion should ultimately start on “why is x there, why isn’t y?” “If I’m on a detective check list or watch list does that mean I’m suspected of being red?” etc… It means people have to get personally involved and risk giving up their alignment. Does someone soft defend or hard defend someone being put on a watch list or the like is something to watch for. The more discussion you can generate via lists like this the more likely reds will slip up. If everyone but player x is talking about these topics, player x could be a) red b) inactive. Either or he’s not helping and voila day 1 lynch. This is exactly the reason why I made these lists: To give people something to discuss. This game is a ghost town, we are currently 6 people participating, while 3 people have not posted at all in the last 36 hours and another one is dodging us with defense and counter questions. We need more activity. That is the main reason why I made these lists. 2.) I am not fishing for blue roles or make them waste their checks. As I stated earlier, the blues are up to do whatever they want to. I also never asked any blue to share their findings, or breadcrumb anything into the thread. Are you serious? I get the feeling you did this on purpose. 1 I wrote in this very post you are quoting that: - "while I like your analysis on a first glance[...]" - "I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time." How you can interprete this as "disregarding the post" is beyond me. 2 Finding a mafia may lead to the rest of mafia, agreed. But finding out why the mafia did a specific night kill is a waste of time. There are so many ways for mafia to make us believe one thing while they do something completely other that it is not worth speculating about why they killed a specific player or left another one alive. Also, clever mafia can mess with our heads by killing a townie that was tunneling another townie, giving town the impression that the tunneled townie was actually scum. This leads directly to a mislynch. So, no, speculating about the motives of night kills leads to WIFOM and mislynches. Avoid it. Again, the reason why I chose the ones that voted on FirmTofu is because it is almost guaranteed that there was some scum in there. So it is interesting to look at these specific player and how they acted so far, what their reasons for lynching FirmTofu were and how they generally behaved. As I wrote in another post this does not make any non-voter of FirmTofu AutoTown, but it means that I concentrate on one specific group of players for a moment and look at their behaviour. 1. The point of those quotes were to show the connection between you and Nova_Terra mainly. Reading that article, I can see how DT lists can be good for both town and mafia depending on how and when they are used. In this context, since there is a lot of lurking going on the DT list promotes activity, and right now any activity is good. 2. I was just being cautious because I don't want a noob blue to accidently slip and get picked off this early in the game. 3(1). My mistake, I mis read your post and missed the part where you said you would be back to re-iterate on the rest of the arguement. 3(2). Well that is opinion really, I think since we have 48 hours for the day it doesn't hurt to at least consider the thought of it. Though since it is WIFOM it can't really be used as the main source of evidence in any case. But your right in that it shouldn't be dwelled on and sparking discussion in other ways can lead to more solid analysis and a proper lynch. 4. "Again, the reason why I chose the ones that voted on FirmTofu is because it is almost guaranteed that there was some scum in there. So it is interesting to look at these specific player and how they acted so far, what their reasons for lynching FirmTofu were and how they generally behaved. As I wrote in another post this does not make any non-voter of FirmTofu AutoTown, but it means that I concentrate on one specific group of players for a moment and look at their behaviour." --> Fair enough. That makes sense. Overall I was just mentioning what it looking like in the filters between you and nova_terra. It could be 2 mafia accidently, 1 mafia hiding behind 1 town, or just 2 towns agreeing with eachother point of views. On that note, you're not in my top suspicious at the moment. @Nova_Terra: + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 20:32 Nova_Terra wrote: I think you have been misunderstanding many of the points I’ve been making. Yes, that is accurate except for the part about the town being frustrated by the town not agreeing with me. I was frustrated that people found me suspicious for the ways that I found Cosine suspicions, but then immediately used my same logic to find him suspicious. I found it hypocritical. It is true that I was mad that the town didn’t think like me, yes. Meh, I didn’t consider it semi random as he made a suspicious first post as well and appeared to be lurking. See last post on the “thinking him” thing, I think you just interpreted “thinking him” wrong as I should have clarified it more. Sorry, maybe shouldn’t have used the word ‘The’ in ‘The Blame’. He was putting blame on me, not tossing it from him to me. Uhhh, sorry? He wanted MORE explanation about my early FOS? I thought he was accusing me for repeatedly defending myself for it. I think that I explained my early FOS well enough. Please clarify. I do not understand what you mean. I still maintain that the thing with Eleanthas as a misunderstanding where you considered my ‘Im thinking’ to not being to point a finger, Whereas I meant that that would probably be my vote if nothing happened to clarify. I was not asking for anyone else to point a finger at him, etc. I find that my clarification of my FOS from beforehand was enough, and therefore I feel that he had an obligation to read the thread through fully, especially if he had just arrived. And he did ignore a few of my posts, as I directly talked to him and he didn’t respond. Well I think/thought that my logic on FirmTofu was accurate, and therefore didn’t want to vote for someone that I was relatively sure was town, especially with the lynch going so easily. I was hoping that enough people would agree with my logic that they would stop their votes, but it was too close to the lynch deadline. You mean my “play” of not voting for the townie, correct? If so, I agree that that was a nice play, as the town’s general goal is to not lynch townies. Of course, Phagga only said that he was sure we could find 1-2 scum in that list, therefore leaving 1-2 out as well, so I consider that as touching on us as well. I find it sad that tofu died, I really thought that my reasoning was enough for people to cancel votes, but it was probably a bit WIFOMy. Anything else? Many of the points you made are based on WIFOM, and therefore I apologize if I was not able to respond to those in a way that cleared it up, as I have trouble defending against WIFOM cases. Your defense hits every point. Its a decent explanation. Just the fact you showed up to defend without OMGUS, makes you less defensive. You seemed scummy to me by the look of your early filter because of the tone it set. It sounded like an aggressive, erratic, defensive scared type tone. With what seemed like OMGUS in early defense. However, your posts as of late are a lot more calm and logic driven. Which is good. Being emotional with your defense just makes you look unstable and suspicious. However, I still find the vote change suspicious. There is a way to do it so its not suspicious and it's not the way you did it. You switched your vote at a time where it was really unlikely with current activity and different time zones that it would ever change the result. Changing your vote with the intention of not changing the result is suspicious cause it just looks like a way to cover your ass later if they flip town. The way I think you shoulda went about this, since it was obvious that you were weary of the direction the vote was taking woulda been to defend the popular suspect, or convince people of another suspect by pushing another case analysis. For people to have time to react to this you need to leave ample time to switch especially when way over the majority is voting one way. If the vote is close or split and a couple votes can change the result, then of course a later switch with explanation can be effective. I still have my suspicions about you, but way less than before. Right now I think you are active and sparking discussion which is good for town regardless. There are better cases to go after. Such as "the lurkers": @Korita: + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 14:06 Janaan wrote: GG FirmTofu I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us. One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts: Then he turns around and: First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look. The case by Janaan was mentioned a long long time ago. Korita so far has decided to just ignore this Korita has been heavy lurking for a long time. Waiting for other discussion to bury the Korita case or for people to just plain forget? Or just an inactive townie. He seems scummy to me. @Infern0: The ultimate lurker in this game so far to me. Longest without a post currently. Drops in posts 4-5 posts that are either edits or just fluff/saying the same thing. Gives a quick explanation for his vote than peaces out for the whole night. Hard to really make a case for him other than he is the biggest lurker. If you want to lynch a lurker to keep an active town or cases are not coming together, I would say he is the number 1 lurker lynch. @Cosine: Another lurker, but he actually proved that he can come back and respond with somewhat of an opinionated post to defend himself. This is the only place he gets a + in my books. Hasn't done much for the town otherwise, and the response being half decent and logical is the only reason he's less suspicious than the other two. Basically I agree with Eleanthas view on him, kinda confused to his motives, but at least he responds... sometimes. Top scum thoughts: 1. Kori 2. Infern0 3. Cosine | ||
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Cosine's Replacement: Wow. This is nice. We lose one of the lurkers without having to waste a town lynch and are getting someone that will hopefully contribute to the discussion and finding scum. For now, I think we need to wipe the slate clean and see Velinath's opinion on the state of the thread, after he gets a good chance to go through it. Then we can make an opinion on him based on his views, and posting motives, etc. Phagga's Lurker Post: + Show Spoiler + On March 15 2012 18:38 phagga wrote: 1.) In almost every mafia game I have read so far there were scum who were lurking. In my last game (Newbie IV), there were 4 scum, 2 of them were lurking almost all game, 1 vs the end. 2.) I agree that there are also active scum. I have my suspects, I read through the filters. However, I am not too sure about my reads yet, and I don't want to mislynch an active townie. Also, I don't want the lurkers to get away with their behaviour, because they won't change anything if we let them get away with it. Lynching a lurker gives us time to flesh out our cases, removes a player with anti-town behaviour and keeps as many active townies in the game as possible. We will be able to analyze vote patterns and justficiations. As a side effect, one of the other lurkers might get more active. 3.) Don't forget that the lurkers, should the fail to vote, will not be modkilled, but replaced, as it states in the Rules: We have three people on the replacement list. Now consider that all 3 lurkers get replaced, we mislynch an active townie and another one gets shot at night by scum. We will be 5 townies to 3 mafia on D3 with 3 new people on which we have zero information. This is not a situation I want to be in. There are two ways to avoid that situation: We lynch a confirmed scum (which we do not have and will not have), or we lynch a lurker (which is easy, there are 3 of them right now). 4.) I'm referencing the newbie mini IV again: Would we have started to lynch all the lurkers from D2 to D4, we would have at least lynched one scum, perhaps even two. We did not, instead lynched active townies and mafia won the game. 5.) Finally, I'm gonna make one more list (Don't you love them?): Active Players (6): - Gossemerr - Mementoss - Nova_Terra - Seviro - Janaan - phagga Somehow active but barely contributing (1): - Eleanthas lurking like there is no tomorrow (3): - cosine - koritora - InfernOokami7 If all mafia is in the active players group, this town is as good as dead already. I doubt anyone is going to trust Eleanthas or any of the lurkers or their replacements for now, so if all 3 scum are in the active group, they can easily direct any discussion to their liking on N2/D3. So I will assume that there are about 4 to 5 townies in this group, which leaves some scum in either Eleanthas or the lurker group. Also, this ties back to point two, mislynching an active townie will hurt us much more than any lurker mislynch. tldr; lynch lurker, better for town, less risk. I agree with Phagga's thoughts on the lurkers. For one, they are basically a safe lynch. You can bet that one of them is probably mafia, and even if they are not mafia, they are not helping the town find mafia. Two, unless you have a really solid case on someone who has consistently been active, it's a risky lynch. If you are wrong and lynch town you will lose one your few solid scum-hunters, and then that night another will probably be picked off by the mafia. This could lead to a late game scenario with a couple good analysts, (1-2 possibly being mafia controlling the town thoughts) and a couple semi-posters/lurkers. In my last game a mafia lurked so hard into day 4 before being lynched, like literally, said things like I wish I could be replaced but they can't find one, then dropping votes 30 min before deadline without explanation. Damn. Three, if a couple lurkers get replaced some of our reads are reset, and the town is in a really weird state, where they disparately need a mafia lynch, but they have all new faces to worry about. Phagga, Janaan, Nova_Terra Connection: + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote: Also I noticed something else that was a bit weird. Maybe just a coincidence. The connection between Phagga and Nova_Terra 1. Only 2 people to have suspicion on Sbrubbles. Phagga and Nova_Terra. I've already shown Nova's so here is Phaggas post. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 18:33 phagga wrote: Where is FirmTofu? He posted a lurker list 5 hours into the game (which is VERY early for a lurkerlist) and has not posted since then. If we would hold him up to his own standard, he is lurking very hard. You can see his filter here I read through all the filters, and besides FirmTofu the following people are rather suspicious to me: - Eleanthas (Only posted a one liner) - koritora (not posting anything of value) - sbrubbles (only two posts in rapid succession where he basically calls out lurkers and fluff, only to disappear again). IMO, if there is a DT out there, these four would be possible check targets. What do you guys think about it? Also, if none of them adds anyhting significant in the next 6 hours, my vote will go to one of these four. Soft deadline 8 hours before is ok with me. Also, as a heads up, I generally won't be around on deadline, as it is at 3 am in my timezone. By final vote will normally be casted around 5 to 3 hours before deadline. --> Also maybe trying to push a waste of DT check onto Sbrubbles? 2. Another agreeance on the DT check, again maybe trying to lure out a Blue or waste a check? + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. 3. First to defend Nova_Terra + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote: Seviro, while I like your analysis on a first glance, I would like to note that you start your case with some heavy WIFOM. We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. However, I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time. --> Doesn't really go into the case, just dis regards it because it has some WIFOM. When really, there was a lot of WIFOM but there were some other good points too, that he didn't post his opinion on. Adds some fluff about trying to guess what the mafia is up to is useless. Well usually finding what the mafia are up to leads to them, and it all starts making sense. Or you find a mafia, then you find what they were up to and make a connection that way. So yes eventually mafia motives are relevant. 4. Leaves Nova_terra out of his analysis because of the vote switch. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas Even though the vote switch does not prove innocence or town so this seems a bit odd. Unless it was pre-planned. FirmTofu already had the majority, so Nova_Terra could switch. Phagga could then post an analysis post, to look town, while leaving out any analysis of his scum buddy Nova_Terra, without looking suspicious because of the vote switch. These are just some things I noticed and my thoughts for now. But as of now, I'm leaning towards ##FOS: Nova Terran I was the one who originally brought up the Phagga/Nova_Terra connection. I still believe my evidence and case holds true. The problem is I do not have a solid case for either of them being mafia. I just have a case right now between them being connected either accidently, or just by coincidence. This is why I didn't put a FoS or preliminary vote on either of them. As stated in the Lurker section I find this too risky right now, considering the lurkish state of the town. And am thinking of the late game scenario where if we have good analysists, a good DT, once we catch one scum it should come together for us. Second, on this. The Janaan connection that Gossemer brings up. I just don't see it, and Gossemer doesn't bring up the quotes in his post to connect the dots at all. His explanation says of the Janaan link is as follows: On March 15 2012 08:27 Gossemerr wrote: Moving on, there is a fishy link between Janaan, Phagga, and Nova_Terra. Nova's behavior has already been discussed so not going to bring that up here, but Phagga has not really has yet to been focused. He /she has yet to really offer any analysis except one post a few hours after the day 2 post, in which he / she focuses only on the people who voted for FirmTofu, and doing so dismisses Janaan rather easily as town. While on the issue of voting, he constantly wants to talk about the people who are lurking, but there is realy nothing to talk about considering that they are lurking.. Seems scummy to me to keep the town going in circles and wasting hours of actual analysis. Of course the lurkers could be mafia, but really nothing new here. Janaan also wants to lynch the lurkers, and easily agrees with Phagga. The latter part being about Janaan. Basically just says he dismisses him as town. There is a difference between not having an FoS on someone and calling them town. Also this was during the early part of Night 1, its been a day and a half since then. Also talking about lurking doesn't make a connection. It's a general town idea to want to get lurkers to talk and to pressure them into talking. If no one talks mafia wins. He then brings up the point of Janaan not contributing which Phagga counters very well here: On March 15 2012 19:20 phagga wrote: 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument - have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason) - in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing" - try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. Eleanthas/Gossemer/Infern0 Connection: + Show Spoiler + On March 16 2012 01:44 Nova_Terra wrote: I am beginning to notice a connection as well between Eleanthas, Gossemerr, and Inferno. By connection, in some cases, I mean lack of connection. You will see what i mean. I recommend that everybody goes to google images, searches "I haz a hunch" and see the first result. ''But sine either hasn't spoken up lately...'' Inferno had really posted much more. Tough his posts had been him trying to state his earlier posts. Still Inferno had come about 3 hours earlir and defended himself and told, why we should lynch FirmTofu. ~Eleanthas on InfernOokami The Gossemerr case In Gossemerr's filter, He mentions Eleanthas a grand total of 1 time, In which he soft defends him by saying he fails to see why Eleanthas was more suspicious than anyone else. In gossemerr's 12 ingame posts, half of them are meaningless 1-2 lines or short answers that can barely be counted as contributing. Then, there is that post that soft defends ele, The post where he decides to lynch Firmtofu without much reasoning on his part, and the post where he says that he thinks firm is town, presents an unlikely situation, and decides to continue lynching him anyway. Yes, a grand total of 3 posts he makes contain any real information. In one, he throws a bit of sight to janaans "weird" posting timing, and ends it by trying to make it seem like he isnt trying to direct any attention. In another, he analyzes why we shouldnt no lynch, so a totally worthless post really. In the last, he dreams up a connection between Janaan, Phagga, and myself. Then he votes janaan with little reasoning, and this little reasoning had already been brought up by me. so just restating what i had said. Then add that to how he says phagga makes little analysis, etc. Also, He appears to want a active lynch instead of a lurker lynch. which didnt bother me originally, but now i can see what this did, if he was a mafia with Eleanthas and InfernO. Ele and Gossemerr had been semi lurking, posting barely any content. InfernO is a hardcore lurker. I think he is trying to distract attention away from lurkers/semi lurkers by his Janaan voting post. Also, Gossemerr never mentions infernOokami. ever. And, as i explained in a post or two ago, Gossemerr seems to be here, a lot. The Eleanthas case Eleanthas mentions Gossemerr a grand total of ZERO times in his entire filter. He really never adds anything of great value to the table, and when in agreement with someone pretty just restates what they said. Not only is this suspicious within itself, but 2 of eleanthas' 8 Posts soft defend InfernO. On Inferno's first non-lurk post, Ele responds by not questioning his lurking, more just stating that Inferno is trying to lurk, which was relatively obvious, and kind of gives him the free pass by saying that he would like to hear more from Inferno in the future. In his latest post, he defends Inferno's lurking in a relatively moderate manner. He says that he defends himself, and doesnt seem to have much of a problem with inferno having said the same thing multiple times. Every now and then he comes in with a 1 or 2 liner to make it seem like he is adding something to the discussion. for instance, or Which may seem partially helpful, but all it really does is help is it helps stop the spread of town information. Or even still Meaningless fluff continuing yep and last but not least Yes, that is 5 of Eleanthas' 8 ingame posts that are 1-2 lines and dont really contribute. Then count the fact that 2 of his other 3 posts have defended Inferno. Yes, 2 thirds of eleanthas' posts have been to defend or reference inferno's play as not being very suspicious. Then add that with the fact that Inferno has been lurking, and how Eleanthas' first post says that we should lynch a lurker (maybe), and how Eleanthas refuses to suspect inferno. I am liking this connection more and more. The InfernOokami7 Case Lets delve into InfernO's extensive 6 ingame posts. Most of which are made to avoid being replaced, it seems. One, he asks about his opinion in a question. Two, he further explains his side. Three, he adds to it. Four, he clarifies it Five, He clarifies a typo SIX! He finally posts analysis! He distracts from our suspiciousness of his own absence by noting how i seem to have little to say about FirmTofu's absence. at the time, my stances were already being questioned, and therefore this could be seen as an attempt to further find me suspicious. then he uses WIFOM to further prove his side. and attempts to jump onboard the bandwagon which Ele and Gosse had jumped on as well. All in all, InfernO isnt extremely suspicious, but when coupled with the way Ele and Gosse have been acting about him, i can see in my mind a mafia trio. I like this hunch. A lot. I would love to see people's thoughts on this. I worked hard ^^ Originally brought up by Phagga, then fleshed out a little more with a focus on Eleanthas, then brought together with each person's case in mind as a whole by Nova_Terra. So for this part im gunna focus on the Nova_Terra post and what his thoughts were. I went through the filters, and see what he is seeing and agree with him. I will re-iterate the main points of just the connection now: Gossermer: Soft defend on Ele, only time mentions Ele in all posts On March 13 2012 04:19 Gossemerr wrote: At the moment I don't see how Eleanthas is acting any more scummy than others. Regarding FirTofu, I was going to make the same case as Mementoss, but was just waiting for more posts by him / her. So, I will add my vote untill / if other information becomes available. ##Vote: FirmTofu Never mentions Infern0 Eleanthas: Never mentions Gossemer States opinion to lynch a lurker, then soft defends Infern0 the biggest lurker in the game. On March 11 2012 21:43 Eleanthas wrote: Ok. Just got first chance to get on computer. And I think that we should lynch lurker maybe. They are anyways pretty worthless if they don't speak. On March 13 2012 01:57 Eleanthas wrote: So what I think about InfernOokami7: beside that post he has 4 post saying pretty much same. I guess he is trying to lurk by stating same thing in many posts. Would like to hear about him. And lastly about FirmTofu: Like many others pointed out FirmTofu posted 2 fast posts. Seems kinda suspicous to me. Telling to pick one of the lurkers and listing them and then vanishing. If we don't hear about him, my vote is gonna go for him. ##Vote FirmTofu ^^Same type of format as Gossemers post, defends a fellow in the connection, then goes with FirmTofu lynch with little to no reasoning. Infern0: Hasn’t posted anything of significance except for jumping on the FirmTofu bandwagon On March 13 2012 06:22 InfernOokami7 wrote: I feel that FirmTofu's first few comments were to produce discussion from those who hadn't contributed to the game (myself included on that list). I don't find fault in that initial posting, but his absence from that point is suspicious. His post drew attention to everyone else in the thread, while he could sit back and watch everyone on that list try to make a case for themselves not to get lynched. ##Vote: FirmTofu Final Thoughts: I basically agree with Nova_Terra's thoughts on Gossemer. He is in the semi-contributing pile. A dangerous pile where it is easy for mafia to stay. Can get away with half thoughts to be not lurking, but not lead the town closer to every finding scum. Can either push lurker lynches, or just fluff up the thread and waste time. He has many fluff posts. Wants to lynch a contributer, with very little evidence, something you could barely call a case, seems to mainly be on feeling. Does he know more than he should? This suspicious behavior coupled with dodging some other suspicious characters, and not being a real contributer to the scum-hunting, makes me think Gossemer is a safe lynch. There is a good chance he's scum and if he does flip red, we got a solid path to get a roll on killing the whole damn mafia. So for now I'm going to throw down my preliminary vote. I will come back and re-check for further discussion to see if my mind changes, but for now. ##Vote: Gossemerr | ||
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I am okay with either lynch. But sorta leaning towards Eleanthas since Gossemerr came back. However, we have to come to an agreement as a town, pretty quick. I hope Phagga comes back as he said he would, and no one is talking about the infern0 lynch right now, where his vote is held. Im staying on Gossemerr for now, but remember we need 6 votes for a lynch. Let's get talking and come to an agreement for the town. | ||
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##Unvote: Gossemerr ##Vote: Eleanthas | ||
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On March 17 2012 00:51 Nova_Terra wrote: Lol, wait, so if both of the lurkers that might be modkilled are town and they end up modkilled, we lose right? >_> Still 2 people left on the replacement list so hopefully they're up for it. Lurkers ruining the game/ killing the town QQ. | ||
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On March 17 2012 17:32 Nova_Terra wrote: hmm, if we lynch another townie, we lose. that is, if blues dont get a heal or mafia kill etc. At this point in time, is it a good idea for a dt to come out and say what he found? then at least we might stop lynching townies. I agree we're in a lynch or lose sort of situation a DT claim now would probably be good. I don't think we can risk lynching a lurker because of the situation, or lynching a brand new replacement due to lack of facts. I've been really sick yesterday and today, that's why my activity has/will been slightly lower. WIll try to get up to date with the thread later today though. | ||
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Phagga: Day 1: Policy: Lynch everyday Suspicions: Sbrubbles, Eleanthas, FirmTofu, Koritora Vote: Firmtofu My Analysis: As you can see, almost everyone Phagga was suspicious of Day 1 was wrong and is now confirmed townie. He bandwagoned because of fear of a no lynch day 1. Had a slight suspicion against Nova early but never brought it up afterwards. Overall not very telling of why mafia would want to kill him, bandwagoning bad town lynches, suspicious of townies. Night 1 The list: Makes an analysis list of everyone who voted FirmTofu. Here is a quick explanation: FoS: Eleanthas Seems town: Janaan, Mementoss Null: Seviro, Gossemerr Suspicious: Infern0, Cosine DT Check: Koritora, Eleanthas, Cosine My analysis The mafia didn't seem too concerned with his posting during the night. This is probably because his main target who he pressured was Eleanthas, who we now know is town. His suspicious are Infern0 and cosine, this could mean that they are also town, but not for sure, just as mafia wasn't threatened by this. Or it could just be phagga wasn't number 1 on their list at that point. As nova was most active, and Sbrubbles was a threat? (only went for NT) WIFOM but still worth nothing. Day 2: Replies to Seviros case vs Nova: Disregards a portion of it to WIFOM. Then says some arguments in it our good, but doesn't really push back against Nova terra, seems like a soft defense on Nova. Replies to Mementoss Phagga, Nova Connection: Explains why he thinks DT lists are a good way of keeping town active. States looking into mafia kills is a waste of time (the irony of me doing this on his post -_-) Explains that he didn't include Nova on his list because he guarenteed 1-2 people who voted firmtofu were probably scum. Votes: Infern0 than changes to Eleanthas, who flips town Lynch Lurkers Post: Explains the reasoning behind lynching lurkers and why it can only benefit town. Counters Gossemerrs point on lynching lurkers being a waste of time. "tldr; lynch lurker, better for town, less risk." Makes this lurker list: Active Players (6): - Gossemerr - Mementoss - Nova_Terra - Seviro - Janaan - phagga Somehow active but barely contributing (1): - Eleanthas lurking like there is no tomorrow (3): - cosine - koritora - InfernOokami7 Counters Gossemerrs argument: On March 15 2012 19:20 phagga wrote: Sorry, forgot to answer to the second part of your post: I'm a "he", just for the record. 1 Right, and you analyzed everyone in the game. Oh wait, you did not, the above paragraph is the only analysis you have done so far. So, what exactly is wrong with me analyzing "only" 6 of 10 people? 2 I never said he was town. I stated that there is 1-2 scum in the group of FirmTofu voters, which means there is also 1-2 scum in the group of non-FirmTofu voters. And I can't believe you bring this up again after Nova_Terra and I both explained this very point to Mementoss. 3 If noone is talking about the lurkers, they will be forgotten and get by with it. It has happened in other games, it can happen here. 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument - have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason) - in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing" - try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. You are desperately looking for arguments to connect the three of us when there is nothing to connect the three of us. I could, with the very arguments you used, claim that you and Eleanthas have a secret connection. Actually, that would even make sense, because you are both halflurking and barely contributing. What do you say about that? ^^First to mention Eleanthas Gossemerr connection, in which Nova fleshes out later. Later states he didn't want this "connection" theory to lead towards a lynch case. It does, and he switches his vote towards majority Eleanthas who flips town. My Analysis: Pressures against Gossemerr, votes Eleanthas who is town. Wants to lynch lurkers/semi lurkers. Maybe this means that mafia are lurking or active, hard to tell at this point because they didn't kill him until the night after. Night 2: On March 16 2012 20:27 phagga wrote: Ok, I just want to make this perfectly clear: When I "hinted" at a connection between Eleanthas and Gossemerr, I made it to provoke a reaction of the two, not because i seriously believed there was one. About Nova_Terra and me: Yes, I do agree with some stuff Nova_Terra wrote, but not with all. No, I do not trust him. I don't trust anyone in this game so far. Yes, we can find connections between people and link mafias together, but for that to work we first need to find mafia, so this should be our top priority. And no, I will not blindly lynch someone only because he agreed at several points with scum. These possible links we have in the thread so far are rather weak. It is possible they exist, but it is also very possible they don't. I also never intended to push a lynch on Gossemerr today, I really wanted to get rid of a lurker (which we did with Eleanthas, although he was not one of the heavy ones). I feel Nova_Terra is an extremely eager Town who jumps to conclusion a little bit too fast. I currently doubt that he is scum, solely because I think scum would not behave that offensively. On the other side, it could be on purpose, and you see I'm going all WIFOM now, so I'll drop. I don't trust him, but some things he said made sense for me. Gossemerr: This is wrong. Two people stopped playing completely, either because they lost interest or something in real life keeps them busy. This does NOT tell us anything about their alignement. They could be mafia, vanilla townies or blues, who knows. (Or are you seriously implying that after (for example) someone from my family had a heavy accident, I would be more inclined to play on in this game if I was mafia than if I was town? In such a situation, this game here is irrelevant, no matter what my alignement is). you are in a game where people try to find out the motives of others by reading, analyzing and judging their posts. What do you think is going to happen when you are a hypocrite in such a game? Yes, you get a scummy label really fast. Also, if you are not contributing, people will assume you try to hide something, which agains means you get a scummy label. I am going to do this just once, and I hope we can burry this afterwards. So what are the possible reasons sbrubbles was killed? - Nova_Terra is scum, he felt the heat and mafia decided to get rid of sbrubbles - Nova_Terra is town, mafia wants to mess with us and decided to get rid of one of Nova_Terras attackers, sbrubbles - Sbrubbles was half-lurking, and since mafia knows he is town, they fear he might be a blue. - Or it was something completely different that I can not think up right now. So we have now 3 options with completely different motivations. I have my opinions about this too, and I think it was the third option (because scum normally tries to kill of blues as fast as possible). But we can not know for sure. If we want to know more, we lynch Nova_Terra next, but if he is town, that was a blatant mislynch and puts us in a far worse position. And even then, we still will not know if they killed bubbles because he was blue or because they wanted to mess with us. And I haven't even started what it means if Nova_Terra would get killed tonight by mafia. Also, how are you gonna analyze the motives of scum if you do not even know who they are? You do not know for sure who is scum, so you can only try to analyze posts from people you think are scum, and if they are not, you'll just produce bad results. Perhaps if we lynched a scum, you can go back through is filter and look for hints for the nightkills, but until then, it's all WIFOM. This is so much WIFOM that it is not worth wasting time on it. And as you are already quite busy (as you wrote earlier), it would be better if you concentrated on finding scum through analysis of posts. But you voted him anyway, so what? ^^Wants WIFOM to stop, says lurkers motives has no connection to their alignment, connections are useless until we find a scum. States he specifically does not trust Nova. Though seems more suspicious of Gossemerr, disagrees with most of what he says, and questions his voting patterns at the end. Last post before the night just states we still have blues and the town can still win this. Overall Analysis: I think the first cycle doesn't have much to do with his death because most flipped green/ he didn't get hit that night. So onto the second cycle. Brings up the Ele/Goss connection, disagrees with Goss pretty hard. Seems less agreeable with Nova than early game states he doesn't trust him. Usually mafia seem to hit people that they find a threat, so even though its WIFOM discussion mafia actions in my opinion doesn't hurt. At this point looking at the reasons Phagga was killed, I am pretty sure that either Nova_Terra or Gossemerr is scum. But NOT both. | ||
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On March 18 2012 03:30 Gossemerr wrote: ebwop: Forgot to talk about the conclusion of mem's analysis: I don't really know what to say here, me a Phagga definitely disagreed, but I don't see how I could be scum. I said either you or Nova was scum, not both. Im not convinced on which one yet tho. Gotta re-read | ||
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My reasoning is as follows: 1. Both the Sbrubbles and Phagga WIFOM cases lead back to Nova the most. 2. Velinath's case vs Nova, Nova's shaky defense against it. 3. Nova's really terrible case vs Seviro and Seviro's counter case. 4. Goss brings up a good case vs Janaan, giving him ++town in my book at this point. Me thinking he is town makes me believe Nova is scum. Therefore: ##Vote: Nova_Terra | ||
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Right now we pretty much need to find a scum to get the ball rolling in the right direction. Finding one scum tonight will give a lot of information, while a no lynch gives none. We can use this to connect and hunt the remaining scum to win the game. If we no-lynch tonight we lose another valuable town analysist and could possibly lose to a modkill as well. Also I doubt we will find any more evidence that will change the current views of the town. Imo the cases against Nova are the best the town has had to go on compared to the previous lynches, which were based on really soft cases, WIFOM, conspiracy connections, and basically were just lynching lurkers. Also I'm starting to doubt if we have any blues, if we do, they have not really contributed anything to the game yet. And yes if both lurkers are town than we are in some serious shit. I think it may be a 1/1 split atm. | ||
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I hope to see you again in mafia, and keep your emotions out.  Kitty is good, we put a St. Patty's day bow on it for St. Patricks day. So cute. I was drunk literally that whole day so I needed to stay away from mafia lol.Also GG scum, fun playing from the red side. It woulda been more challenging, if the blue did something and the town had more activity. That's the problem with newbie games I supposed. Nobody ever put a case on me the whole game nor did they mention me in obs QT. Guess thats a good thing. Good job by the hosts, woulda liked filters edited into main page, and updated with the kills. I enjoyed reading the night posts and they had good pictures. Only other thing was replacements but, that can be a pain and it didn't help about the obs QT. | ||
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I think picture is too big for TL so ill just leave link. http://tinypic.com/r/ckyuh/5 | ||
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On March 20 2012 02:16 jaj22 wrote: Yeah, I think this is particularly important in mini games. Unless you name the whole scum team correctly, you've just decreased your chance of getting a successful vote on scum by pissing off some townies. Keeping the linked cases to yourself until after a flip is probably the best choice. If your case relies almost entirely on links, then it's probably a bad case. In your previous town game, you put quite a lot of effort into keeping discussion moving on day 1, so I felt that sitting back while town vegetated in this game was rather conspicuous. One-game meta is much more powerful than a lot of people think. This is why I needed to be really active, as my last game as town I was always posting big posts while alive. | ||
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