Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VIII - Page 2

On March 15 2012 02:35 phagga wrote:
I am cutting down to the part that is about me.



1.) Making DT check lists is a way to get town more active. It is even mentioned in BloodyC0bblers Post "TL Town Breakdown / Analysis".

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This is exactly the reason why I made these lists: To give people something to discuss. This game is a ghost town, we are currently 6 people participating, while 3 people have not posted at all in the last 36 hours and another one is dodging us with defense and counter questions. We need more activity. That is the main reason why I made these lists.

2.) I am not fishing for blue roles or make them waste their checks. As I stated earlier, the blues are up to do whatever they want to. I also never asked any blue to share their findings, or breadcrumb anything into the thread.



Are you serious? I get the feeling you did this on purpose.

1 I wrote in this very post you are quoting that:
- "while I like your analysis on a first glance[...]"
- "I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time."

How you can interprete this as "disregarding the post" is beyond me.

2 Finding a mafia may lead to the rest of mafia, agreed. But finding out why the mafia did a specific night kill is a waste of time. There are so many ways for mafia to make us believe one thing while they do something completely other that it is not worth speculating about why they killed a specific player or left another one alive. Also, clever mafia can mess with our heads by killing a townie that was tunneling another townie, giving town the impression that the tunneled townie was actually scum. This leads directly to a mislynch.

So, no, speculating about the motives of night kills leads to WIFOM and mislynches. Avoid it.



Again, the reason why I chose the ones that voted on FirmTofu is because it is almost guaranteed that there was some scum in there. So it is interesting to look at these specific player and how they acted so far, what their reasons for lynching FirmTofu were and how they generally behaved. As I wrote in another post this does not make any non-voter of FirmTofu AutoTown, but it means that I concentrate on one specific group of players for a moment and look at their behaviour.

On March 14 2012 20:32 Nova_Terra wrote:

I think you have been misunderstanding many of the points I’ve been making.

Yes, that is accurate except for the part about the town being frustrated by the town not agreeing with me. I was frustrated that people found me suspicious for the ways that I found Cosine suspicions, but then immediately used my same logic to find him suspicious. I found it hypocritical. It is true that I was mad that the town didn’t think like me, yes.

Meh, I didn’t consider it semi random as he made a suspicious first post as well and appeared to be lurking. See last post on the “thinking him” thing, I think you just interpreted “thinking him” wrong as I should have clarified it more.

Sorry, maybe shouldn’t have used the word ‘The’ in ‘The Blame’. He was putting blame on me, not tossing it from him to me.

Uhhh, sorry? He wanted MORE explanation about my early FOS? I thought he was accusing me for repeatedly defending myself for it. I think that I explained my early FOS well enough.

Please clarify. I do not understand what you mean.

I still maintain that the thing with Eleanthas as a misunderstanding where you considered my ‘Im thinking’ to not being to point a finger, Whereas I meant that that would probably be my vote if nothing happened to clarify. I was not asking for anyone else to point a finger at him, etc.
I find that my clarification of my FOS from beforehand was enough, and therefore I feel that he had an obligation to read the thread through fully, especially if he had just arrived. And he did ignore a few of my posts, as I directly talked to him and he didn’t respond.

Well I think/thought that my logic on FirmTofu was accurate, and therefore didn’t want to vote for someone that I was relatively sure was town, especially with the lynch going so easily. I was hoping that enough people would agree with my logic that they would stop their votes, but it was too close to the lynch deadline.


You mean my “play” of not voting for the townie, correct?
If so, I agree that that was a nice play, as the town’s general goal is to not lynch townies. Of course, Phagga only said that he was sure we could find 1-2 scum in that list, therefore leaving 1-2 out as well, so I consider that as touching on us as well.
I find it sad that tofu died, I really thought that my reasoning was enough for people to cancel votes, but it was probably a bit WIFOMy.
Anything else?
Many of the points you made are based on WIFOM, and therefore I apologize if I was not able to respond to those in a way that cleared it up, as I have trouble defending against WIFOM cases.

On March 13 2012 14:06 Janaan wrote:
GG FirmTofu

I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us.

One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts:


Then he turns around and:


First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look.

On March 15 2012 18:38 phagga wrote:


1.) In almost every mafia game I have read so far there were scum who were lurking. In my last game (Newbie IV), there were 4 scum, 2 of them were lurking almost all game, 1 vs the end.

2.) I agree that there are also active scum. I have my suspects, I read through the filters. However, I am not too sure about my reads yet, and I don't want to mislynch an active townie. Also, I don't want the lurkers to get away with their behaviour, because they won't change anything if we let them get away with it. Lynching a lurker gives us time to flesh out our cases, removes a player with anti-town behaviour and keeps as many active townies in the game as possible. We will be able to analyze vote patterns and justficiations. As a side effect, one of the other lurkers might get more active.

3.) Don't forget that the lurkers, should the fail to vote, will not be modkilled, but replaced, as it states in the Rules:



We have three people on the replacement list. Now consider that all 3 lurkers get replaced, we mislynch an active townie and another one gets shot at night by scum. We will be 5 townies to 3 mafia on D3 with 3 new people on which we have zero information. This is not a situation I want to be in. There are two ways to avoid that situation: We lynch a confirmed scum (which we do not have and will not have), or we lynch a lurker (which is easy, there are 3 of them right now).

4.) I'm referencing the newbie mini IV again: Would we have started to lynch all the lurkers from D2 to D4, we would have at least lynched one scum, perhaps even two. We did not, instead lynched active townies and mafia won the game.

5.) Finally, I'm gonna make one more list (Don't you love them?):

Active Players (6):
- Gossemerr
- Mementoss
- Nova_Terra
- Seviro
- Janaan
- phagga

Somehow active but barely contributing (1):
- Eleanthas

lurking like there is no tomorrow (3):
- cosine
- koritora
- InfernOokami7

If all mafia is in the active players group, this town is as good as dead already. I doubt anyone is going to trust Eleanthas or any of the lurkers or their replacements for now, so if all 3 scum are in the active group, they can easily direct any discussion to their liking on N2/D3. So I will assume that there are about 4 to 5 townies in this group, which leaves some scum in either Eleanthas or the lurker group. Also, this ties back to point two, mislynching an active townie will hurt us much more than any lurker mislynch.

---

tldr; lynch lurker, better for town, less risk.

On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote:
Also I noticed something else that was a bit weird. Maybe just a coincidence. The connection between Phagga and Nova_Terra

1. Only 2 people to have suspicion on Sbrubbles. Phagga and Nova_Terra. I've already shown Nova's so here is Phaggas post.

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--> Also maybe trying to push a waste of DT check onto Sbrubbles?

2. Another agreeance on the DT check, again maybe trying to lure out a Blue or waste a check?

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3. First to defend Nova_Terra

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--> Doesn't really go into the case, just dis regards it because it has some WIFOM. When really, there was a lot of WIFOM but there were some other good points too, that he didn't post his opinion on. Adds some fluff about trying to guess what the mafia is up to is useless. Well usually finding what the mafia are up to leads to them, and it all starts making sense. Or you find a mafia, then you find what they were up to and make a connection that way. So yes eventually mafia motives are relevant.

4. Leaves Nova_terra out of his analysis because of the vote switch.

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Even though the vote switch does not prove innocence or town so this seems a bit odd. Unless it was pre-planned. FirmTofu already had the majority, so Nova_Terra could switch. Phagga could then post an analysis post, to look town, while leaving out any analysis of his scum buddy Nova_Terra, without looking suspicious because of the vote switch.

These are just some things I noticed and my thoughts for now. But as of now, I'm leaning towards ##FOS: Nova Terran

On March 16 2012 01:44 Nova_Terra wrote:
I am beginning to notice a connection as well between Eleanthas, Gossemerr, and Inferno. By connection, in some cases, I mean lack of connection. You will see what i mean. I recommend that everybody goes to google images, searches "I haz a hunch" and see the first result.

''But sine either hasn't spoken up lately...'' Inferno had really posted much more. Tough his posts had been him trying to state his earlier posts. Still Inferno had come about 3 hours earlir and defended himself and told, why we should lynch FirmTofu.
~Eleanthas on InfernOokami

The Gossemerr case

In Gossemerr's filter, He mentions Eleanthas a grand total of 1 time, In which he soft defends him by saying he fails to see why Eleanthas was more suspicious than anyone else. In gossemerr's 12 ingame posts, half of them are meaningless 1-2 lines or short answers that can barely be counted as contributing. Then, there is that post that soft defends ele, The post where he decides to lynch Firmtofu without much reasoning on his part, and the post where he says that he thinks firm is town, presents an unlikely situation, and decides to continue lynching him anyway.
Yes, a grand total of 3 posts he makes contain any real information.
In one, he throws a bit of sight to janaans "weird" posting timing, and ends it by trying to make it seem like he isnt trying to direct any attention. In another, he analyzes why we shouldnt no lynch, so a totally worthless post really. In the last, he dreams up a connection between Janaan, Phagga, and myself. Then he votes janaan with little reasoning, and this little reasoning had already been brought up by me. so just restating what i had said. Then add that to how he says phagga makes little analysis, etc.
Also, He appears to want a active lynch instead of a lurker lynch. which didnt bother me originally, but now i can see what this did, if he was a mafia with Eleanthas and InfernO. Ele and Gossemerr had been semi lurking, posting barely any content. InfernO is a hardcore lurker. I think he is trying to distract attention away from lurkers/semi lurkers by his Janaan voting post.
Also, Gossemerr never mentions infernOokami. ever.
And, as i explained in a post or two ago, Gossemerr seems to be here, a lot.

The Eleanthas case

Eleanthas mentions Gossemerr a grand total of ZERO times in his entire filter. He really never adds anything of great value to the table, and when in agreement with someone pretty just restates what they said. Not only is this suspicious within itself, but 2 of eleanthas' 8 Posts soft defend InfernO. On Inferno's first non-lurk post, Ele responds by not questioning his lurking, more just stating that Inferno is trying to lurk, which was relatively obvious, and kind of gives him the free pass by saying that he would like to hear more from Inferno in the future.
In his latest post, he defends Inferno's lurking in a relatively moderate manner. He says that he defends himself, and doesnt seem to have much of a problem with inferno having said the same thing multiple times.
Every now and then he comes in with a 1 or 2 liner to make it seem like he is adding something to the discussion. for instance,

or
Which may seem partially helpful, but all it really does is help is it helps stop the spread of town information.
Or even still
Meaningless fluff
continuing yep
and last but not least

Yes, that is 5 of Eleanthas' 8 ingame posts that are 1-2 lines and dont really contribute. Then count the fact that 2 of his other 3 posts have defended Inferno.
Yes, 2 thirds of eleanthas' posts have been to defend or reference inferno's play as not being very suspicious. Then add that with the fact that Inferno has been lurking, and how Eleanthas' first post says that we should lynch a lurker (maybe), and how Eleanthas refuses to suspect inferno.
I am liking this connection more and more.

The InfernOokami7 Case
Lets delve into InfernO's extensive 6 ingame posts. Most of which are made to avoid being replaced, it seems.
One, he asks about his opinion in a question.
Two, he further explains his side.
Three, he adds to it.
Four, he clarifies it
Five, He clarifies a typo
SIX! He finally posts analysis! He distracts from our suspiciousness of his own absence by noting how i seem to have little to say about FirmTofu's absence. at the time, my stances were already being questioned, and therefore this could be seen as an attempt to further find me suspicious. then he uses WIFOM to further prove his side. and attempts to jump onboard the bandwagon which Ele and Gosse had jumped on as well.
All in all, InfernO isnt extremely suspicious, but when coupled with the way Ele and Gosse have been acting about him, i can see in my mind a mafia trio.

I like this hunch. A lot.
I would love to see people's thoughts on this. I worked hard ^^