Sure, I'll break down all my reasoning.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
It's past 4 in the morning here so I'm going to wait to post who I think we should lynch for in the morning. What I do want to post now is who is slipping underneath the radar... Rainmaker has posted twice so far. In his last post he said he had to head to class and that he would post his later on, which he never did. Beorn has only had one post thus far in which he agrees with the general consensus on random lynches.
Early on you pick out two people.. 1 of which is confirmed town, the other though lost interest in the game, his replacement I'm thinking is also town.
On March 02 2012 20:36 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 20:18 Sufficiency wrote:On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote:
Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103? gutty feelings. Fair enough... I was hoping it was something a little more elaborate, but ok. 
Despite this complete dodge/slap in the face. You seem okay with taking this as answer.
On March 03 2012 03:24 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote:
If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else. I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
Targeting the lurker, seems safe... however what about sufficiency?!
On March 03 2012 03:55 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote:Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now. going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information Trapdoor http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13742776This is just a good post that I feel I can stand behind. Against a no-lynch and wants people to talk. Standard behavior for a good town player. Dimmuclock http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011same shit, for a lynch wants people to discuss. Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch. Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that Pablos http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13750765going out of his way to fly off the handle when someone is suspicious, is well suspicious. Also he seems to be supporting random lynch? I'm not really sure Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react. But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention. Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm! The only useful thing about this post is your opinion on OtoshimonoU. There is no point in bringing up the names of people that are not on our current suspect list and then not even accuse them of anything. That kind of information is just taking up space. You haven't posted much up until now and that post is looking pretty suspicious to me... ##FoS: Rainmaker5
Again, confirmed townie.
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote:
Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
Still nothing on sufficiency...
On March 03 2012 06:50 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 05:51 Maverick32x wrote:+ Show Spoiler +@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point- Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support..... Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency. On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment. On March 03 2012 03:24 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote:
If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else. I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today. On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote:
Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads.
Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table. I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability. Mementos: On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too. Creating excuses for Sufficiency. On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.)
Mementoss
trackd00r
maverick
dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails
gunman
rainman
friedchicken
tiystus
otoshimoU
beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up
Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss)
Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him. You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia. On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town. Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote:
Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r. Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information. My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red] Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes. All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia... So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded. Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time. Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information. I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here: Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote:
Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him. My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other. On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
Kind of a strange post.. seemingly distancing yourself from sufficiency since you're starting to worry that people are connecting you... You suspect Beorn of lurking and being scum.. but again.. no mention of sufficiency...
On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote:
I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
This NEVER happens.
On March 05 2012 08:27 DimmuKlok wrote:
GG Mementoss, it's been fun.
OtoshimonoU, what is your read on Sufficiency? Also, who is your top scum read right now and why?
It honestly sounds like you're trying to figure out who's the biggest threat in the town...
On March 07 2012 01:55 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2012 00:46 blubbdavid wrote:
Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather.
Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute." I don't see how a DT case on Rain is wasted, or even less effective than a DT case on anyone else. Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, statistically, and Rain is the most likely to come up as Mafia in my opinion. If you investigate anyone and they turn up town, what does that tell you? Nothing, because it could be wrong, and even if it's right then you just have a confirmed town player who will continue to do what they did before that. My opinion of Willz is after this.
Possibly directing the DT towards a town?
On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote:Why I called out Willz: Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote:
For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new). Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote:
My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post. Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote:
Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information. He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this: Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote:
Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it. This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of... Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote:
Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake. This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information. Show nested quote +On March 06 2012 09:22 willz22912 wrote:On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote:
I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get. I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on. This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up. After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
Why you called out Willz- to protect Sufficiency? Pretty much switching the pressure..
On March 08 2012 16:20 DimmuKlok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote:
I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all.... This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote. I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing: Show nested quote +On March 01 2012 13:15 Sufficiency wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote:
Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours. I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL. Show nested quote +On March 01 2012 13:16 Sufficiency wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Oh great. Now he is defensive about it.
Anyway, since it's not the time to vote yet, we might as well wait until everyone talked a few lines.
Later, I tried to confirm which it was, and sadly his answer was: Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 20:18 Sufficiency wrote:On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote:
Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103? gutty feelings.
You defend sufficiency some more....
On March 09 2012 09:46 DimmuKlok wrote:
I went with Gunman. Obviously it's our only option at this point.
Defending would be too obvious.....
SO there are a couple examples of the 'connection'... I'm all for going for sufficiency first though.. so you still got time~
Lastly, who could the other 2 mafia be if not Sufficiency and Dim? Really try to answer that, and look at the connection between confirmed town and the 1 mafia that we have left.... There is a pattern of communication here- everyone left here had sufficiency in their sights at some point in the game... except Dim....
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EPT
