Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII
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Leave this scared place! before your flames of spam leave it a burning hollow. Your precence here will result in a natural massacre so tragic that both town and mafia despite their differences shall find eternal commonality in death, as they are all reduced from happy newbie newbs to smoking newbie corpses! (Kidding, I have a bad relationship with hyperbole.) | ||
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On February 16 2012 06:29 Blazinghand wrote: I think you meant to say you have the worst possible relationship with hyperbole; that he beats you, and you cry, but every time you leave, you end up going back. That somehow, despite it all, you love him. That the lady at the shelter knows you by name... and shakes her head every time his words bring you back to him. You can't leave him, he is a fire that warms you, but every time you get close, he burns you. Your relationship with hyperbole may be bad, but he's the only man who ever loved you. Well played sir, well played. | ||
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If they react as such then that speaks volumes of either their experience or their naivety, and the worst move a mafia can possibly do in light of all this is try and discredit the poll, because once again it poses no harm to town whatsoever! Town wants to be as honest as possible without making themselves an easy target! Which this poll is perfect for! | ||
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On February 17 2012 11:11 EchelonTee wrote: Gumshoe I think you're mafia. for that poll. Why in tarnations would you think that? Seriously though the purpose of the random ass poll was just to see if the mafia made one big decision or not, unfortunately less that 12 people out of the 15 voted so I cant say that they took any part in this vote, nor can I say that they didn't, what I can tell is that its highly likely that at some point around when town began to treat the poll as the sorta joke it seemed, and all voted the mafia option AGAINST my wishes(as I pretty much predicted), the mafia probably hoped on the happy train of cynicism to discredit the pole and not stand out. So this pole has been somewhat useful in showing that at least two or maybe even all four of the mafia are being active early on. Wether that information is useful or not you can decide for yourself, but you cant blame me for trying ) : | ||
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On February 17 2012 11:25 jaj22 wrote: @Gumshoe: Did you get some RL buddies to spam your own vote, just in case it was accidentally useful? @Steveling: I see you lynched Palmar on your first day. Not the greatest start to a mafia career. Fortunately we don't have any awesome scumhunting veterans in this game. Or mayors. I was actually worried about rls spamming the vote ( : that compromises its usefulness. | ||
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On February 17 2012 11:36 EchelonTee wrote: I would like it if you divided your walls of text into paragraphs; it took me a few to fathom your post, when I realized you're not saying anything. K very simple I wanted to see if any voting patterns formed within the poll It was like a lynch simulator But less than 12 people have voted in the pole therefore any conjecture regarding any mafia patterns is at the moment useless. Because it's possible that none of the mafia voted given that town thinks the poll is stupid and just posted on it randomly or trolingly. Discredit it until theres twelve votes or just discredit it period if you so please. That is all. | ||
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On February 17 2012 11:48 EchelonTee wrote: I'm not trying to offend you, or needlessly discredit you; your post was just hard to understand, and I did not quite understand the purpose of what you did. post however you please. as a random aside: Mafia gets heated, so if I'm acting like an asshole just let me know and I'll tone back. I apologize as well. This was just a random shot to start off the night, I mean theres really nothing to discuss until something happens and it beats just randomly accusing people, but ill try not to do something like this again... for this game at least! | ||
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On February 17 2012 12:04 Steveling wrote: Just an idea, if you want this to work in future games, I think you need to post a clarifying post before the poll-post, something like a preemptive strike, so you get full cooperation from townies and state the purpose. For example, I voted scum on the poll before I even read it just to troll, T_T. Dont worry, even the trolling was somewhat useful, and would've been especially useful if the voting went above 12 | ||
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On February 17 2012 12:40 slOosh wrote: You are getting defensive. I just wanted you to clarify a post. Now, how is your attitude so flip-floppy? Gumshoe does his weird poll thing, you ask if he could write his posts more legibly, and then take a very friendly stance of making sure no one is offended, asking for accountability etc. Now I have no problem with that. What I do have a problem with is how you shift your attitude so quickly. I assume the :D in the next quote indicates playfulness. Then just a few minutes later you lash out against me, clearly telling me what not to do - "don't twist my words" And that last line: "there are motives for both townie and scum to do so." That may be true but a townie would never think like that. If they did something that might be misconstrued as scummy, they would clarify themselves. They wouldn't say both mafia and town could have acted in the way they did. I was fine with your first post. But now you've earned my suspicion. ##FOS: EchelonTee T | ||
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On February 17 2012 12:40 slOosh wrote: You are getting defensive. I just wanted you to clarify a post. Now, how is your attitude so flip-floppy? Gumshoe does his weird poll thing, you ask if he could write his posts more legibly, and then take a very friendly stance of making sure no one is offended, asking for accountability etc. Now I have no problem with that. What I do have a problem with is how you shift your attitude so quickly. I assume the :D in the next quote indicates playfulness. Then just a few minutes later you lash out against me, clearly telling me what not to do - "don't twist my words" And that last line: "there are motives for both townie and scum to do so." That may be true but a townie would never think like that. If they did something that might be misconstrued as scummy, they would clarify themselves. They wouldn't say both mafia and town could have acted in the way they did. I was fine with your first post. But now you've earned my suspicion. ##FOS: EchelonTee T To comment on this whole epic clash of wills between prolific posters, the poll was a goofy plan, I knew that, but if it worked it could have been useful and if it didn't It's illfated nature could provide the perfect platform for a mafia players critique. A mafia player wants to seem useful while not actually being so, attacking something that seems blatantly useless is a perfect way for a mafia to look like he's contributing while not actually doing so. That said I doubt that Ech would take this huge and obvious of a risk this early on(as he did) if he was maf, we still have tons of time, if Ech backs off we shall know if he's trying to hide after taking so much heat and therefore he's probably worried about an investigation or a lynch. His only route is to keep being an aggressive poster and hopefully dig his way out of the ditch with some phoenix wright quality analysis. I also really don't like Ech's controversial move of casting doubt on a specific player for not yet posting when there are several players still lurking. I don't care if you wanted to draw him out you could've just asked for his opinion on something. | ||
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blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one) Alderan - Absent no alibi Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) : Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious. track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so ) no reason to suspect as of yet Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius Janaan- is absent no alibi tk hawakins- is absent no aibi dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi zell - is absent no alibi jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy. | ||
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On February 17 2012 13:23 MidnightGladius wrote: gumshoe's posting seems pretty odd so far. I can imagine him not knowing that non-players could still vote in his poll, but the fact that he thinks that he can compare voting patterns in an anonymous, arbitrary poll with actual vote pattern analysis, coupled with his rather silly explanation for why the poll didn't work (lurking town players trolling en masse with mafia joining the "wagon"? Really?), doesn't seem right. Even if you don't think that there's anything substantive to discuss, there's no reason to fabricate something that isn't likely to help us at all. However, I don't really get the feeling that he's scum, just new. I don't want to make the same mistake I made last game, when I was certain that questionable Day 1 play by itself meant scum. EchelonTee, you shouldn't be so upset If you claim that your "he's posting the scum QT" threat was a joke, then you're expecting us to let you get away with saying anything you want, as long as you say that you're not being serious. Secondly, you claim that you never accused sl00sh of being mafia, but there's no denying that he would be posting in the scum QT if and only if he were truly mafia. You're not looking too friendly at the moment, and I have to wonder what might be on your mind. You've had some experience, so I expect better pro-town play from you. And I will be watching. In an ideal world all town votes town, there are at least 11 town votes, if there are more than 15 votes we just discredit the pole and if there are votes between 12 and 15 we now know mafia probably participated in the vote if only to throw it off, now we can see if all the votes are green which means the mafia is organized right at the start of the game (because this post happened early on) think of it at the very least like a ghost reading, " Is there a spirit of a mafia in this room!" I know it all seems weird but its could be useful for telling how many mafia players are active at the start of the game and only at the start. Look if you think this is a stupid strat consider it dead, there were not 12 to 15 votes so it dosen't matter. Also someone openly said he just trolled my poll T T so some townies did in fact just en masse troll for funsies and who would come into a mafia thread at 10 oclock at night to vote on a poll that has no effect on their lives whatsoever? Also it makes perfect sense that mafia would mock a stupid strat once it was apparent it was stupid. | ||
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On February 18 2012 00:30 jaj22 wrote: MannerKiss: Ok, I'm going to explain why you're acquiring suspicion, just in case you haven't figured it. Calling someone out is almost universally a pro-town action. Therefore your accusation is baseless. If you're town, please post some better-justified opinions as soon as possible. If you're scum, carry on as you are. Gumshoe: I'd dismiss Gumshoe as newbie-with-a-plan except for these points: 1. There was a rush of unclaimed mafia votes immediately after he posted, suggesting possible synchronised collusion. 2. He didn't vote town himself, at least not within 20 minutes of posting. Considering the wording of the post, that's stunningly hypocritical. On the other hand he's very active, so if he's scum he'll probably dig himself a deeper hole soon enough. EchelonTee vs SlOosh: Nothing too surprising here. EchelonTee posting like he just solo'd a game as scum (re: Normal Mini Mafia), SlOosh still a bit prone to confirmation bias. They're both looking ok to me so far. Zelblade: Read your own post, then follow your own advice. This game takes what, 10 minutes to read so far? Accuse someone. Anyone. We're not looking for 50 line cases here. This goes for Trackd00r too, although this is his first game so I'm going to be nicer to him. Steveling: Ok, it's partly my fault that you've made four posts with zero suspicions, but this cannot go on trackd00r So you've been keeping an eye on the players from Newbie Mini III. What do you think of them so far? Alright i think its time to clarify the real purpose of the poll, i just expected everyone to vote town, than than i would vote mafia and ask which troll said they were mafia but are actually town (because it seemed obvius that everyone would vote town) i was hoping someone would say they were the troll, which would mean they were a townie if they had actually trolled, but because i was the one who voted mafia i would end just making a note of the people claiming to be the troll, the plan didnt pan out because everyone voted mafia. Basicaly i went fishing and the fish told me to f off. | ||
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On February 18 2012 01:03 jaj22 wrote: Oh yeah, I know you didn't vote town on the poll because I was the only town vote at 9-1. Well thats irony, thats how exactly how i was gonna try and catch someone | ||
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On February 18 2012 01:22 blae000 wrote: Yeah! I dont really know what to read from that. So basically he _was_ the 'odd one out', until others started to vote town as well. Then again, it might have been all observers voting to troll us. Either way, to tell who is lying or not from a click in the poll isnt the best way to go. So the faster we forget the poll, the better. We need to get the rest talking, so we can see who acts suspicious and find the scum that way. I'll go back and re-read some stuff for now. I was in a bit of a hurry earlier. I agree with blae, the poll was a risk and it didnt pan out but it did yield soem interesting conversation. In a little while im going to post about whereeveryone stands on the four major conflicts so far, first though - gotta go walk a dog(my equivalent of bowling) | ||
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On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote: Ok, so I've been reading the thread for a while and taken a look to the filters. @jaj22: Regarding in the comparison of those four players in NMM3, Their metagame has been similar so far, with a very few exceptions: -Sloosh has been very aggressive against EcheleonTea after he made an indirect scum claim (not sure if he was kidding still). The discussion lasted quite a bit with lots of attacks against each other. I'm not missing that attitude from sloosh, but I still expect more from him as town, by pulling off cases and encouraging everyone to participate, opposed to pick off a single target and turning it into a semi-heated talk. Helping us by posting the filters (thanks btw) and giving some general advice is nice to hear, but that fight left me with a little drop of doubt. Anyways, I somewhat understand that he was trying to defend from the first claim and in that case, it's the right thing to do. Looking good. -DoyouHas seems to be pointing the town to the right direction: taking the confidence to be the first to post (BUT last newbie mafia the first poster turned to be scum, with the difference that it was just fluff), gathering information and making his stand clear to everyone. Seems very pro town from me, the same way he did it in NMM3. -MidnightGladius has somewhat posted in the begging of the game. However, he does still have that flaw present in the past game, which is to make useless calculations and proportions about the mafia/town ratio. I feel that doesn't really contributes much to the dialogue. His next post have been better though, analyzing and commenting about the Echelon-sloosh clash and the not that succesful plan of gumshoe. I hope he keeps like that. Important to mention that those 3 players had blue roles in NMM3, so looking through their posts in the next days can make a clearer picture of them and their attitude to everything in general. -Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. Well, that's all regarding the past players, but of course we need to take look to the rest... Gumshoe did not had the best start ever in a mafia game. That first post was just flashy and not very elaborated. As Echelon said, it could be interpreted as an attempt to derail the discussion. This thing drew my attention quite a bit: + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 11:36 EchelonTee wrote: Show nested quote + I would like it if you divided your walls of text into paragraphs; it took me a few to fathom your post, when I realized you're not saying anything. K very simple I wanted to see if any voting patterns formed within the poll It was like a lynch simulator But less than 12 people have voted in the pole therefore any conjecture regarding any mafia patterns is at the moment useless. Because it's possible that none of the mafia voted given that town thinks the poll is stupid and just posted on it randomly or trolingly. Discredit it until theres twelve votes or just discredit it period if you so please. That is all. That ridiculously excessive action regarding to divide your text into paragraphs makes you look fell very uncomfortable and desperate to get out of that situation. I'll take your plan as a newbie mistake, but that last post can draw suspicion... In my opinion, we should take a look at Steveling posts: + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 10:50 gumshoe wrote: Hi everybody! Im the friendly neighbourhood gum on your shoe! Today I come to you with a plan that'll hopefully shed some light on the certainly vile nature of the scum infesting our sacred house...OF GAMBLING! The plan is a simple anonymous poll asking wether your a townie or a scumie. Now in the case of the townie there is no risk whatsoever in voting townie, on acounta a) you are a townie and b) no one can say otherwise cause your voting anonymously. In fact I very much so ask that you don't say which one your voting for or wether or not your even voting at all. All I ask is that if you're a townie vote townie, or don't vote, please don't troll and say your mafia I REPEAT NO TOWNIES VOTE MAFIA, IT SHALL BE THE END OF US ALL!!!!!! This only works if all the townies voting vote townie so please do so if your a townie. If your mafia feel free to vote as well, in fact the whole purpose of this exercise is to see if you as a group abstain from voting, vote as you please, or all vote townie. This is an experiment to study the mafia and I promise to only do this once, so whata ya say newcomers! Watcha gonna be? I'd just likely to repeat one last time there is ABSOLUTELY no way I or anyone else can ascertain your alignment through this vote, so please give it a shot, it might very well teach us something useful. Poll: Anonymous vote: are YOU mafia? Mafioso (16) 80% Townie (4) 20% 20 total votes Your vote: Anonymous vote: are YOU mafia? (Vote): Townie (Vote): Mafioso I loled soo hard reading this. As for me, I played one more game of mafia, but it was the biggest fail human kind has ever witnessed. There were 80 players in it, and it ended with the scum offering a draw, cause the city was that bad, T_T. I was a towny needless to say. Here's the link, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690 I think I'm with jaj on the lurker lynching. Since unless some serious slips happen it's our best bet for scumhunt. + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 11:25 jaj22 wrote: + Show Spoiler + @Gumshoe: Did you get some RL buddies to spam your own vote, just in case it was accidentally useful? @Steveling: I see you lynched Palmar on your first day. Not the greatest start to a mafia career. Fortunately we don't have any awesome scumhunting veterans in this game. Or mayors. Yeah, that was ...unfortunate, Q_Q. But, I did have the best scumreads based on clues in that game. Well that was all I could do so I spent a lot of time into these. Also in my defense all the towny veterans where cockfighting each other so it was impossible for a newbie to tell who was what. + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 11:55 gumshoe wrote: Show nested quote + + Show Spoiler + I apologize as well. This was just a random shot to start off the night, I mean theres really nothing to discuss until something happens and it beats just randomly accusing people, but ill try not to do something like this again... for this game at least! Just an idea, if you want this to work in future games, I think you need to post a clarifying post before the poll-post, something like a preemptive strike, so you get full cooperation from townies and state the purpose. For example, I voted scum on the poll before I even read it just to troll, T_T. There is barely anything helpful on those posts. Not really contributing . I expect you to post more or my suspicion to you will rise. That's it for the moment. I'll be checking again the thread in a couple of hours. My absence in the past is just sleeping. As may notice, my time is roughly the same as EST, so I'll be up for deadlines and lynches. And sorry for the bad formatting @ spoilers >.< I'll PM a mod later so I get some help lol The poll wasn't supposed to do what it seemed like. It was to bait fluffy responses and harsh accusations, which it did,also there was more to the poll if it actually work but that was as I said a shot in the dark. I apologize if I derailed non existent conversation,the poll didn't work but it yielded as i said some interesting responses. You have every right to be suspicious of me, I took a risk and it didn't pay off , but anymore discussion directed towards a failed plan is just as derailing the plan itself. Another "gumshoe is definitely not a noob but mafia because of x comment" is that big of a contribution and can easily be seen as a way of continuing a doomed topic of conversation. | ||
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On February 18 2012 02:06 jaj22 wrote: I'm not sure you're reading this properly. After being caught out, Gumshoe has admitted to substantial dishonesty through his early posts, including one that he doublespaced for EchelonTee. If what you're looking for is liars, we have a confirmed one already. The only reason I haven't voted him is that players who make this sort of ridiculous and dishonest plan in newbie games have a nasty habit of flipping town. I thought this was the liar game!( manga reference for the win!) I know it wasn't right to admit I lied, if i lie its better to just stick with it considering you didn't really have any proof that i didn't vote townie just your word, and i could just say I voted late by accident , the reason the told the truth is because I felt that I had to own up the big blunder I caused. I felt that by clearing it all up I could help us move on from this discussion. | ||
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On February 18 2012 02:55 Alderan wrote: I know I said I didn't want us to get sucked into this poll nonsense but these are all quotes from gumshoe's filter.... So uhh.... what's the purpose of this poll? All of the above in order, if the vote turned out to be 11/4 i would just remark that the mafia is organized at the beginning of the game and surprisingly honest despite this being an anonymous vote. if the vote turned out to be 14 town I would vote mafia and try to find someone looking for an easy way to prove thier town. if the vote didn't work at all I would just discredit it and wait and see who tried to keep dwelling on it, who would keep talking about how ridicules it was and who would keep saying its a scum post. | ||
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On February 18 2012 02:55 slOosh wrote: Gumshoe, (and anyone else for that matter) please don't lie. Ever. Especially in a newbie game, we can't have people lying as it destroys town's ability to find mafia. Now, everyone has posted, so it is a matter of differentiating who is trying to contribute vs who is just trying to look like they contribute. Can you clarify your stance on us? Do you think I'm suspicious? You say you follow ET's reasoning well but it doesn't seem that you think he is town either? What are your thoughts on us? Understood ) : | ||
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On February 18 2012 03:06 Alderan wrote: I had no issue with the poll. What I did have an issue with is that as you gained more and more attention, and were catching more and more heat for the post, your explanation gradually changed to something that you thought we would want to hear. All I did was reveal more of my intentions as the subject grabbed more attention. I never said what you wanted me to say I just told bits and pieces of a big risky move that I did think through but never expected to garner this much attention, eventually I revealed to you guys I lied at the start. Thats not something you want to hear, you don't want to hear that you have a loose cannon untrustworthy active town, you wanna hear that he's mafia and making a stupid attempt at disrupting discussion. I didn't admit I was lying because it was what you guys wanted to hear, I admitted it because I had started this mess and I had to try and salvage it despite the further blow it would do to my credibility. | ||
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Lynching: This is a very important topic given the nature of the rules in this particular game, there is one plus mafia so it seems almost foolish to not lynch. That said rash decisions can only hurt us and we have extra blues so if we take a hit one day were certain to get definitive evidence the next. As it stands though I think we can only afford one no lynch f any at all.Heres where denizens stand or don't stand on the issue. if no definite scum lynch lurkers - Ech- Steveling - Zelblade - jaj22 if no definite scum probably shouldn't lynch - DoYouHas (he mentioned if we have to we can but he seems generally opposed to the idea of carelessly lynching)- TKHawkins no stance - Bleae- Alderaan- Manner Kiss(has not contributed one bloody thing to discussion and where over twelve hours in game, has provided no alibi, I am fully accusing this guy of inactivity, he needs to step up right now)- Trakdoor- MidnightGladius- sloosh- jannan- DimmuKlok 6 of the 15 of us have commented on lynching lurkers, 4 say yes 2 say no. The vote is fast approaching I suggest we all form an opinion in advance on wether or not we want to lynch a lurker day one. This is a good opportunity to get everyones opinion on a very much relevant topic so don't be shy. more stances coming soon. | ||
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FOS: Manner Kiss | ||
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Unlike the topic of lynching lurkers, nearly everyone( with the exception of manner kiss and a few other lurkers) has stated an opinion on this matter, heres the breakdown of where everyone stands. Fore warning I'm a lot less objective here so take my opinions as you will. Thinks I'm the nubbiest of noobs: Blae(not much to say, just seems like he wants to move on from the poll which isn't really what a mafia would want) Janan (just disregarded my poll and moved on, not very suspicious behaviour) Steveling( hasn't commented to much, posted rather jokingly in response to my poll... Almost as if he wasn't worried about the prospect of me being mafia... Steve needs to post more.) Midnight Gladius (didn't think I was mafia, not a suprise gladius dosent seem to take many risks) TKHawkins( hasn't said much) Thinks I'm mafia: Echelon Tee(aggressively claimed I was mafia, which seemed almost too risky of a move for an actual mafia) Trackdoor(seemed more than just suspicious of me, he pointed out things that could have just as easily been said if he was openly accusing me like Ech, which leads me to believe he was trying to draw attention to me without catching as much heat as Ech, I actually trust him less than ech but I wouldn't be willing to commit to that suspicion because he hasn't really said that much yet.) Thinks I'm a bit suspicius: Alderan(seems pretty constructively suspicious though, no big reason to suspect him) DoYouHas (didn't openly comment on the poll but suggested at one point to Manner that it and I were perhaps suspicion worthy, I don't see a reason to suspect him) Sloosh( Sloosh seems to be open to all possibilities which I respect about him so far, he wont take a huge risk unless he's 80 percent sure of something or he's being threatened(read ech vs sloosh).) He's more interested in building up a useful town atmosphere than anything else it seems, several of his contributions include players filters, analysis and opinions provided for almost every topic thats come up so far, and also he made the plea that our town should be completely honest with one another( a good step away from the chaos that several confrontations have caused). If he turns out to be mafia I for one will take a sizable moral hit. Jaj22( also wants to keep options open and doesn't rush to conclusions, but has a much darker play style than Sloosh. That said I think he's just trying to put on a lot of pressure where he think the dam might leak. 70 percent chance he's town I think) No opinion on poll: Zellblade (hasn't posted much and his one post felt very generically constructive, take that as you will.) Manner kiss(still no alibi) DimmuKlok (hasn't posted much) HAlO VOICE: Three lurkers remaining! Oh and as for people who though my poll was a great, helpful and constructive idea?: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOBODY!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So preliminary findings form all this? 5 in favour of me being a noob, 4 in favour of me being suspicious, 2 in favour of me being mafia. other general conclusions? 12 players have spoken out about my pole meaning one of the above is mafia. Trap door seems a bit hostile but unwilling to commit to any accusations ) : Steve's post seems a bit off and hasn't posted much These are all just my observations, take them with an avalanche of salt if you wish. | ||
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On February 18 2012 04:38 MidnightGladius wrote: gumshoe, I am having a really hard time reading your intentions, because you've basically done everything that the beginner's guides warn against: lying, posting lists without much content, derailing the thread, and making unclear points. If you're going to continue doing this, it's going to make the game a huge headache for the town. I don't think that you're mafia, but please look over the guides, and try to post more productively. On the topic of lynching or not: there is no reason not to lynch Day 1. It is the most reliable way for the town to go forward, as we can then begin looking at voting patterns and doing behavioral analysis. If we don't lynch, we're in basically the same spot during Day 2, except with one fewer innocent player. As to who we lynch, I say that we put pressure on lurkers and threaten them with a lynch if they don't contribute. It establishes a basic precedent on the quality of content that we expect out of certain players, and then we can take their future posts and make some contrasts. The common argument against lynching a lurker is that mafia will only have to pretend to contribute, or stay just above the least active players. I say that that's fully acceptable, as both of those behaviors will be red flags in the days to come, especially if the town keeps up and stays consistent with activity levels. With that said, I'm going to put my vote on MannerKiss. He has done nothing for us. MannerKiss, here's your opportunity to show us that you have an interest in helping us win this game. Who is your #1 target so far? ##Vote: MannerKiss I agree with you Gladius, on all accounts, but my problem with all your suggestions is their so easy. Need to put pressure on someone? Look to the guy who messed up at the start of the game. Should we or shouldn't we lynch? Of course we should! It'd be foolish not too. Who do we lynch? how about the guy everyone hates and has not contributed whatsoever? As suspicious as I am of manner he could very well be just a disillusioned townie who really doesn't want to play a game in which he has no power, which is mega unlikely but still possible. As chaotic as my play is yours seems almost too by the book. You almost seem like a Damon Gant just waiting to burst out in a fit of demonic fire/lightning and ferocious claps! | ||
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On February 18 2012 04:44 DoYouHas wrote: Gumshoe, I would like it if you would start taking stances on players. You have cluttered the thread with talk about a useless poll (and yes it IS useless, it does not matter what it could have been). The only posts that I have found useful of yours are the two on MidnightGladius. I did not need a clarification on people's stances on lynching lurkers, I have read the thread. Your early list was largely contentless and just took up space in my opinion. I want you to start talking in specifics. Taking the wide view isn't a bad thing, you just need to bring up something that doesn't look obvious when you post like that. I prefer lists, if you want something specific ask me, you got the useful information out of me because I was asked. So if you want something specific I'll oblige you otherwise I'll continue to take the wide view until a new issue comes up thats worth confronting directly. | ||
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On February 18 2012 05:20 Steveling wrote: Ok, just woke up and caught on the action. So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1. The reasoning: We are close to the night, very close actually and we have zero solid cases on anyone. Yes mannerkiss's weird 1 liner is scummy, also both eche and sloosh became defensive too fast and yes there are some lurkers as well. Nothing we can make a strong case on. But chanses are that we are probably gonna misslynch day1 with the current situation. So the way I see it, we either push for a lurker lynch or a no lynch. And with a no lynch we promote more discussion without losing an unlucky towny, more discussion always benefits the town. What do you guys think? Definitley need to take the risk of a lurker lynch, there are three lurkers currently in the game, manner zell and one more I forget, theres a 75 percent chance one of them is mafia. A chance I think we need to take cause were one townie short. You brought up this proposal rather meekly, no authority no anger, I gotta say its a bit suspicius. My current list of people I find suspicious Steveling( too light, doesn't seem stressed at any point isn't very aggressive. Also has suggested a no lynch, terrible option for town in this game because as I said where one short. Manner kiss(could just be a disillusioned player if so hes useless to us) DimmuKlok. You say almost nothing for half a day and then show up suddenly and accuse a) the most obvious seeming runt in the litter (manner kiss) and b) the second most obvious seeming runt in the littler(me) without suggesting anything new whatsoever. The mafia introducing a useless pole and then taking uneccecairy heat is an AWFUL idea, why would any mafia draw attention to themselves in a such a stupid way? A single investigation can easily ascertain wether or not their mafia, its way to risky for scum (im not even sure if it was a good idea for a townie to do... ok it wasn't a good idea for a townie period!)You also post for the first time in a while in relative tangent with Steveling who also hasn't posted in sometime... Both your posts are regarding lynching, one of you saying we should lynch lurkers another saying we shouldn't. Not so sure what i think of you but I definitely don't trust you. Gladius. I'm not gonna vote for you, but you are on my radar, as I am on everyone else's. | ||
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On February 18 2012 05:53 DoYouHas wrote: Could you explain this further? I don't follow the 75% chance. In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:14 Steveling wrote: Well, I thought we were 4 hours from night. With our current cases, I just thought that we were gonna lose a towny. See again you come off as so cuddly despite the fact Im accusing you ) : it makes me feel bad for suspecting your mafia but that behaviour is why i suspect you in the first place. | ||
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On February 18 2012 05:56 Steveling wrote: I'm very confused by you. You mentioned at least 2 times that people should have a reason to suspect you are scum after you defended yourself for dear life all day yesterday. You also accuse people on not accusing you? What? If you are scum your play is brilliant, lol. I'll have an eye on you. I'll check some filters and post something else later. Peace. Well you'd be an idiot not to at least slightly accuse someone for such a dumb poll ) : that was part of the purpose of the poll. Also how is me defending myself for dear life any different from slush defending himself when he was called out by Ech? We defend ourselves, its what we do regardless of wether or not were town or mafia. | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:20 Steveling wrote: Well don't know what to say to that. That's generally how I post or talk. lol Imagine I'm the Sheth of Mafia. xP Ironically enough sheth plays a lot of tl mafia, and he's less cuddly then you'd expect. That said at one point he was suggesting that his own lynch was towns most viable move... | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:05 Alderan wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 05:20 Steveling wrote: Ok, just woke up and caught on the action. So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1. The reasoning: We are close to the night, very close actually and we have zero solid cases on anyone. Yes mannerkiss's weird 1 liner is scummy, also both eche and sloosh became defensive too fast and yes there are some lurkers as well. Nothing we can make a strong case on. But chanses are that we are probably gonna misslynch day1 with the current situation. So the way I see it, we either push for a lurker lynch or a no lynch. And with a no lynch we promote more discussion without losing an unlucky towny, more discussion always benefits the town. What do you guys think? No reason for a no lynch yet big hoss, we've got plenty of time. Ok brahs, now for some case building.... Here's a little fliter you all should check out. DimmuKlok Only three posts so let's investigate. Post #1 + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 15:26 DimmuKlok wrote: Hello everyone, I just finished reading through the thread. I would first like to echo TKHawkins first post about lurking and availability when posting. I've been checking the thread nightly to see if the game had started, and tonight it did. I would not be surprised if the majority of people who haven't posted yet are unaware that the game has started. Now a little bit about myself... This is my first mafia game, and I'm looking forward to it. I really like gumshoe's idea with the report. I'm sure it's already common place, but I recommend everyone make their own private version of it. It's not hard, and it makes it a lot easier to keep track of everyone. I don't have much to contribute yet when it comes to suspicions. It's still too early. - 1st he goes ahead and defends those who had not posted yet, not a huge deal in and of itself but we will see how this is a trend in his postings. - He then goes on to say that we should all have a list of lurkers. That's as scummy as making a list of lurkers but not actually doing the work to update it..... Post #2 + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 18:09 DimmuKlok wrote: Alright, lets take a look. MannerKiss: I think it's unanimous that we would like to hear more from him. His first post was a simple one line introduction, and his second was his one line reply to DoYouHas, which was almost humorous in how suspicious it sounded. Jaj22: He was the one that initially started the conversation about lynching lurkers. I don't agree with his stance. I would rather not have a lynch than lynch a lurker on the first day. I'm not sure if his posts are much to be suspicious over, but worth keeping an eye on. Me: I don't see how someone could read my post and think it didn't have a pro-town atmosphere, but that's your opinion. Trackd00r: I found his first post to be useful and agreed with some of what he said. He never contributed again after that, but it's still pretty early. I don't see the anti-town atmosphere in his post. - First he agrees that the person who voted one time should be suspicious.....How incredibly helpful.... - Then he goes on to say he would rather no lynch than lynch a lurker on the first day. As someone posted above, giving the mafia a free kill and leaving in someone who is adding nothing to the town and only creating more confusion is counter productive.... - Denies how someone could think his all fluff no substance post would be scummy at all..... - Follows up with another fluff analysis of Track, saying nothing, making no stance, providing nothing. Post #3 - Immediately retracts his old lynching policy. Even saying "After reading everyone's response I'm convinced we should be looking for someone to lynch, but I do feel we should try to find a good reason to lynch someone before we target lurkers." - Announces that he is still suspicious of MannerKiss, in light of all the recent developments..... (that was sarcasm, of course you would still be suspicious.... he still hasn't posted). - Jumps on the latest flavor of the thread, Gumshoe, and makes a vague, semi accusatory statement. That, ladies and gentleman is what you call a lurker.... a real scummy looking lurker..... Alderaan I 100 percent agree with you, his first substantial post was generic and unhelpful and then he proceeds to accuse the two most obvious people in the game after not posting for hours. He has has my vote as well if it comes to it. | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:28 trackd00r wrote: I'm sorry Steveling, but I definitely think that no-lynch is no no. We are not close to night. We've only had played for 21 hours and that's less than half of the time. We still have plenty of time to build a strong case on anyone. There have been several stances where we could gather information and I know that we can use it to push out a lynch. If it turns out mafia, great. If not, we will see the bandwagons and those who are dodging the cases to make a good and hopefully successful lynch in the second day. Well, you have posted much more content than you did it on your previous post, but I insist, I disagree with a no-lynch. Gumshoe, sometimes I think that you are going more pro-town, but in some other instances I just don't understand your intentions. Even you manage to contradict your self: With this, I really want to make you think more carefully about you post. You say that Steveling has contributed to the discussion, when he actually didn't really at that point (he even loled at your poll) and then you suddenly realize deeper into the game that he hasn't commented much? I'm letting of the suspicion of you but please, please, think carefully every post you make. Instead of replaying to every post, try to start a case or at least draw your lynch candidates in a clear way. I swear that I can't even understand some of your posts, and not only to me, but all the town right here. For the moment, i'm lifting my suspicions about you and Steve I need to keep checking the filters and try to build up a strong case. There have been a lot of situations going on here and I'm starting to lose focus >_<. Expect more posting from me, I will. Understood officer wont happen again; | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote: Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by [quote=gumshoe]There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss ##Vote: Gumshoe[/QUOTE] there are 4 mafia, 9 townies, 15 players in total,if you were to lynch 4 random players simultaneuley one of them would turn up as mafia. If you were to lynch one of four suspicious players there is a greater chance that one of them turns up as mafia. Thats not Wifom, thats just considering the fact that a lurker who doesn't post much has a slightly greater chance of being mafia. All this is a case for lurker lynching its not meant to be harmful, I'm just suggesting that because theres one more mafia than usual its more likely we will lynch a lurker we have a better chance than of getting a mafioso then we usually would. Please explain to me whats wrong with this claim. Bore us with the details. After all you are accusing me, so I'm very much so interested, hope you can forgive me for that. | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote: Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by [quote=gumshoe]There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss ##Vote: Gumshoe[/QUOTE] Sorry reposting due to format error. there are 4 mafia, 9 townies, 15 players in total,if you were to lynch 4 random players simultaneuley one of them would turn up as mafia. If you were to lynch one of four suspicious players there is a greater chance that one of them turns up as mafia. Thats not Wifom, thats just considering the fact that a lurker who doesn't post much has a slightly greater chance of being mafia. All this is a case for lurker lynching its not meant to be harmful, I'm just suggesting that because theres one more mafia than usual its more likely we will lynch a lurker we have a better chance than of getting a mafioso then we usually would. Please explain to me whats wrong with this claim. Bore us with the details. After all you are accusing me, so I'm very much so interested, hope you can forgive me for that. | ||
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On February 18 2012 06:54 slOosh wrote: Gumshoe I am seriously considering lynching you due to your anti-town play. You are cluttering the thread despite numerous requests to stop. Your posts are still without content. Saying that we have a higher probability to hit mafia since there are 4 opposed to 3 is irrelevant and unhelpful in finding the mafia. If you keep it up I will push for your lynch, because your play right now is detrimental to town. Alright ill back of at your request. Look forward to something useful next time I post. | ||
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On February 18 2012 07:27 Steveling wrote: Gumshoe what's your view on jaj22? Hes hostile very hostile, but doesn't seem like mafia. Right of the bat he introduced us to both his mentalities as scum and town. This is a bold move that says "I have nothing to fear about revealing my mafia strategies because I am town". If he's mafia he's just volunteered to change his strategy just to throw us off, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, or he's just setting an honest tone for his town play(which is more likely. His next post is used to dismiss my poll because it clearly wont be of any use due to the inability to keep other posters not in this game from posting. this a useful way to address the poll because it allows for a) the immediate dismissal and the ability to avoid discussion if necessary not because the poll is stupid but because it validly flawed and b) the ability to put pressure on me for posting something that looked as if it had no way to go but down. He chooses to follow up on option b and eventually proves I was lying, after that he backs off because he's already proven his point and fully discredited the poll(and me). This kind of finality to is useful for town and useful for crumbing suspicion on me for later use if I do turn out to be mafia. Him not pressing the investigation here seems a good sign that he not looking to start a train(or wagon was it?) but actually trying to just figure out another player. he later on calls out a lurker who is especially suspicious because they claim in advance and time and time again that they have limited time and cant post effectively as a result = Blae. Blae said in advance he wouldn't be able to post that often, but if he's mafia he can use that to his advantage and jaj showcased that he was aware of that threat when he asked Blae to speak up. There is no harm in asking a player to talk but asking a player who no one has called out because they said "I wont be around because of x" seems shrewd. Also Jaj has only REALLY been hostile towards one person(other than me),Steveling for a stupid suggestion. All these things can be interpreted as good mafia play though. What really seals the deal for me in thinking hes town is his efforts to communicate with other mafia semish veterans. None of the other frequentish players have really done this. It gives me a sense that Jaj is trying to create a community of individuals he trusts, which he wouldn't have to do if he was mafia. He's also forcing those same people to talk, because they can also turn out to be the biggest threats having already played the game a bit. Jaj is trying to make friends not by pointing fingers or discrediting someone, but by calling out to the players he knows. That seems like really strong positive play to me and sorta dispels his scumish vibe. My one complaint is that jaj keeps virtually all his findings to himself so far. I expect a case out of him at least before vote just because It seems almost certain that he's picking up a lot on almost everyone here. | ||
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On February 18 2012 08:44 jaj22 wrote: I just don't like day 1, because I can't read anyone who doesn't have a decent post count. That's why I'm concentrating on trying to make people post better. If I'm sounding hostile I should correct that because it's likely to put people off posting. Actually I thought I was mostly ignoring them because they had a decent post output and hadn't done anything daft Nah, there's no-one that I really want to lynch yet. Hopefully that'll change as the post count increases. I know you see more than you let on, but I don't mind you waiting till a few hours before vote to let us in on your grand scheme. Furthermore the conversation with the decent posters seemed like a good way to get a few better players talking without provoking them like several other players did to get certain posters talking(including yourself at one point in the case of blae) so it struck me as constructive. Good townies build towns. | ||
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On February 18 2012 08:47 Janaan wrote: A couple reads DoYouHas: Pretty strong towny feel to me. He's been willing to call people out and promoting real discussion from the town. Sloosh: Still on the neutral side, BUT probably leaning toward the town side of things. Since defending himself from Echelon, he's been trying to clear the thread of fluffy responses, to allow for real discussion, which is also what he did in NMM3. Alderan: Feeling a bit towny to me. He was the first to provide a full-on case against someone, which is usually a pro-town action. Gumshoe: I still think he may just be a real newbie town, but his posts are clogging up the thread. His post on Jaj22 was pretty unhelpful in my opinion, and seemed kinda wishy-washy and pretty WIFOM at the end. DimmuKlok: As mentioned by Alderan, he seems scummy. I await his resonse to the case. Sorry Jaj hasn't posted much so there aint much to read yet but I don't get a scummy vibe off him so take my opinion for what you will. | ||
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On February 18 2012 11:16 Steveling wrote: I present to you, Gomshoe the Wifom Jester! You can already see from here, before the game even started, the nature of his posting. You have a bad relationship with hyperbole? No shit. Your posts wreak havoc and confusion even in the /in period of the game. That's WIFOM scum in its best right there. You assume ofcourse that everyone will think exactly that and dismiss their suspicions for you. And it worked actually, only a handfull of players remain cautious towards you. Myself was joking around with it at first glance. Only after I filtered you, I begun to see it for what it's worth. Laborious scum play. Another obvious scum minded WIFOM. You say so yourself that it would be naive for someone not to judge you based on that poll. Yet most of us thought of it as either a joke or bad/naive town play. Have you guessed that would happen? That you would get away with that? Ofc now, I use WIFOM on my part to say that, but here comes your posting to validate me and my reasoning. In 2 separate posts you accuse 2 different people of not questioning your poll. The reasons or the purpose you do that is irrelevant. What matters is that the only way you can do that is if you had already assumed that noone would hold you responsible for this poll. Because if they wouldn't, then you would simply be commiting suicide. There's no logical reason to do that whatsoever. So, it's clear that you used WIFOM logic in this poll. Now, although initially you fooled some of the most naive of us(like me) when some other players like Echelon and Midnight, started to doubt you, you gradually changed colors and stance. At first you feel the need to complement yourself, after taking more heat you go to (read the bolded parts) next few posts it comes down to to finally go to So as we all see, you try to tone down the polls meaning as more and more people are on to you. To top if all off you admitted that you lied! How in the name of earth am I the first to make a case against you is beyond me. You basically yelled "IM SCUM SUCKERS", while using that dubious poll to shift the blame to others and wifoming yourself out from the poll's sticky situation. Lets look now at how you approached those who accused you based on the poll. People that as you said in your own words So you had every reason to push a case against the two of them. Lets see how you handled it. There were 2 of these players. MidnightGladius and Echellon. Your last response towards Midnight was Your previous one was this,(bolded) So, after OMGUS him with that last sentence, then for no reason at all you back off of him. And all that after prophesying that those who pursue you will be mafia. Why was what? If you did plan to not pressure him at all, then why the OMGUS stance? Sense? Zero. The other guy who accused you was Echellon. This was your last dialog with him concerning the matter, Really? You apologize? How cute. You will notice how that WIFOM poll plot is activated again on this quote as well. "Don't try to accuse me cause I know that you wouldn't be so stupid to do so!" Your play is scum 100% gomshoe. You post in quantity but not in quality. You lie. You so admit it yourself. You make obvious WIFOM play. In fact your play is so weird that even in the off chance that you are a dazed towny it's still better to kill you off now. I can't imagine what messy situation you will cause in the 3rd day for example. Stevie your back! Ill get to you in a bit. | ||
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On February 18 2012 09:58 MidnightGladius wrote: So you're just going to vote me for no given reason, promise to post reasoning, nudge someone else to attack me, and then leave? You and jaj22 are both not making any sense to me. Ill address you! lets take a look at your first post shall we? "It is such a pleasure to start another game: let the paranoia flow, and the productivity falter!" the first thing you say...that just seems completely unnecessary ) : "In response to DoYouHas, this is my second real game here. The earlier ones were way too large and chaotic to be of much use." your very quick to discredit your own experience, your first two posts so far involved some cute innocent encouragement for a scenario in which the mafia thrives (implying the ideal game is one where mafia have the upper hand) and your second post makes you out to seem pretty meek and inexperienced, in other words not a threat. I wont hold you too much to that second post because were all noobs here. After that you posted some speculation on how the number of roles will play a role, which was pretty obvius and not especially helpful ) : Your next four posts all start with me and then move on to address common issues. ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((The vets watching us are going to have a field day with that one, gumshoe :/ As you obviously can't ascertain anyone's alignment through this poll, and the polling isn't closed only to players of this game, what exactly about the mafia were you planning on studying?)))))))))))))))))))))))) the first one you just laughed at the obvious flaw in the poll. Same as Jaj nothing to read there. You then dont post for almost two pages. Which means your present but don't see fit to participate, perhaps because your busy with something else. Next qoute! (((((((((((((((((((((((((((gumshoe's posting seems pretty odd so far. I can imagine him not knowing that non-players could still vote in his poll, but the fact that he thinks that he can compare voting patterns in an anonymous, arbitrary poll with actual vote pattern analysis, coupled with his rather silly explanation for why the poll didn't work (lurking town players trolling en masse with mafia joining the "wagon"? Really?), doesn't seem right. Even if you don't think that there's anything substantive to discuss, there's no reason to fabricate something that isn't likely to help us at all. However, I don't really get the feeling that he's scum, just new. I don't want to make the same mistake I made last game, when I was certain that questionable Day 1 play by itself meant scum. EchelonTee, you shouldn't be so upset If you claim that your "he's posting the scum QT" threat was a joke, then you're expecting us to let you get away with saying anything you want, as long as you say that you're not being serious. Secondly, you claim that you never accused sl00sh of being mafia, but there's no denying that he would be posting in the scum QT if and only if he were truly mafia. You're not looking too friendly at the moment, and I have to wonder what might be on your mind. You've had some experience, so I expect better pro-town play from you. And I will be watching. )))))))))))))))))))) In this second post two page later you act suspicious of me and point out several things that are almost "too newbish to be newbish" but do not accuse me like Ech, you basically call me scum in all but name porbally because your potentially afraid of catching heat like Ech did, you then actually call ech scum in all but name as well, just like you did to me. I almost feel like Ech was on your mind when you were thinking about how to raise the suspiciun aimed at me, so you just incorporated him into your post while you were at it. You only address the two people who have taken heat knowing that their safe bets. You have contributed nothing to town whatsoever at this stage of the game. ((((((((((((((((((gumshoe, I am having a really hard time reading your intentions, because you've basically done everything that the beginner's guides warn against: lying, posting lists without much content, derailing the thread, and making unclear points. If you're going to continue doing this, it's going to make the game a huge headache for the town. I don't think that you're mafia, but please look over the guides, and try to post more productively. On the topic of lynching or not: there is no reason not to lynch Day 1. It is the most reliable way for the town to go forward, as we can then begin looking at voting patterns and doing behavioral analysis. If we don't lynch, we're in basically the same spot during Day 2, except with one fewer innocent player. As to who we lynch, I say that we put pressure on lurkers and threaten them with a lynch if they don't contribute. It establishes a basic precedent on the quality of content that we expect out of certain players, and then we can take their future posts and make some contrasts. The common argument against lynching a lurker is that mafia will only have to pretend to contribute, or stay just above the least active players. I say that that's fully acceptable, as both of those behaviors will be red flags in the days to come, especially if the town keeps up and stays consistent with activity levels. With that said, I'm going to put my vote on MannerKiss. He has done nothing for us. MannerKiss, here's your opportunity to show us that you have an interest in helping us win this game. Who is your #1 target so far?)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) This next post which happens over 12 hours later, starts off once gain with me! You accuse me of violating basic rules, you start hyping me up as an enemy of the town as either a) a reckless poster or b) mafia scum, you once again call me scum in all but name. You then make the obvious decision to be pro first day lynch, which really shouldn't be a decision considering that not lynching is a sure way to give mafia an advantage and finally you then decide to vote for Manner Kiss... the most obviously distrusted player, huh pretty big move there. ((((((((((((((((((Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by [quote=gumshoe]There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly.[/quote] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss ##Vote: Gumshoe)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) Finally we arrive at your first big move all game. Early on you were talking about how the ratio of players would affect the game, which really wasn't different from me trying to figure out how the higher quantity of mafia players to town players would affect lurker lynching. Regardless this is your big moment, you call me out as mafia elevating me above Manner Kiss, you don't address any of the other events like Sluush and ask's fight, you just keep your eyes on the prize. Even if you fully think I am mafia you can adress the problem of lurkers, or involve yourself in one of the other conversations, instead you remain tunnel visioned and focus only on me. You havent even tried contributed to town in any other way nut accusing me in this last post. In the day since your first posted about me, you have posted 4 (including that first comment) times in total and each time you began by addressing me. The hostility level of these 4 posts was like this post one. Jockingly mocks me. Post two. Says im probally a scum or a noob and is now suspicious of me but doesn't wanna make any judgements just in case Post three. Begins portraying me as a threat regardless of wether or not I'm mafia or a townie, conditioning the town to lynch me on probably day two if no greater suspect appears after manner is lynched. post four. Accuses me in a 'THIS WAS THE LAST STRAAAAW" manner. Theres an obvious progression of hostility in each of these posts that seems almost systematic. Almost as if you've been clearly building up to your accusation. After that you only posted to defend yourself against Jaj's claims. So basically, your total contributions amounts too Pointing out things I do that people before you have already pointed out. Placing suspicion on Ech Voting for manner kiss and me deciding that we should lynch period Accusing Ask and jaj two constructive players who've been active on multiple topics the whole the whole game and have taken risks to get information. Oh and noting that the game is getting exciting. As of now that is it, I eagerly await your defence. | ||
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On February 18 2012 11:16 Steveling wrote: I present to you, Gomshoe the Wifom Jester! You can already see from here, before the game even started, the nature of his posting. You have a bad relationship with hyperbole? No shit. Your posts wreak havoc and confusion even in the /in period of the game. That's WIFOM scum in its best right there. You assume ofcourse that everyone will think exactly that and dismiss their suspicions for you. And it worked actually, only a handfull of players remain cautious towards you. Myself was joking around with it at first glance. Only after I filtered you, I begun to see it for what it's worth. Laborious scum play. Another obvious scum minded WIFOM. You say so yourself that it would be naive for someone not to judge you based on that poll. Yet most of us thought of it as either a joke or bad/naive town play. Have you guessed that would happen? That you would get away with that? Ofc now, I use WIFOM on my part to say that, but here comes your posting to validate me and my reasoning. In 2 separate posts you accuse 2 different people of not questioning your poll. The reasons or the purpose you do that is irrelevant. What matters is that the only way you can do that is if you had already assumed that noone would hold you responsible for this poll. Because if they wouldn't, then you would simply be commiting suicide. There's no logical reason to do that whatsoever. So, it's clear that you used WIFOM logic in this poll. Now, although initially you fooled some of the most naive of us(like me) when some other players like Echelon and Midnight, started to doubt you, you gradually changed colors and stance. At first you feel the need to complement yourself, after taking more heat you go to (read the bolded parts) next few posts it comes down to to finally go to So as we all see, you try to tone down the polls meaning as more and more people are on to you. To top if all off you admitted that you lied! How in the name of earth am I the first to make a case against you is beyond me. You basically yelled "IM SCUM SUCKERS", while using that dubious poll to shift the blame to others and wifoming yourself out from the poll's sticky situation. Lets look now at how you approached those who accused you based on the poll. People that as you said in your own words So you had every reason to push a case against the two of them. Lets see how you handled it. There were 2 of these players. MidnightGladius and Echellon. Your last response towards Midnight was Your previous one was this,(bolded) So, after OMGUS him with that last sentence, then for no reason at all you back off of him. And all that after prophesying that those who pursue you will be mafia. Why was what? If you did plan to not pressure him at all, then why the OMGUS stance? Sense? Zero. The other guy who accused you was Echellon. This was your last dialog with him concerning the matter, Really? You apologize? How cute. You will notice how that WIFOM poll plot is activated again on this quote as well. "Don't try to accuse me cause I know that you wouldn't be so stupid to do so!" Your play is scum 100% gomshoe. You post in quantity but not in quality. You lie. You so admit it yourself. You make obvious WIFOM play. In fact your play is so weird that even in the off chance that you are a dazed towny it's still better to kill you off now. I can't imagine what messy situation you will cause in the 3rd day for example. Theres a similar trend between you and glados, you both want to portray me as mafia but are equally willing to kill me if I'm a townie because I seem like a risk. If you just said I was mafia, that would be a case, instead your trying to say that killing a bad player( in a newbie game) is just as good as killing scum. Regardless of my crazy posting if I am a townie I will vote and build a case against the player I find the most logically suspicious(glados right now) , i will not openly accuse someone at random just to spark discussion , rather I'll let them come to me by setting myself up as the trap. If you think I am mafia and you are a townie, vote for me, but if I flip green don't you dare think that it was still a good decision to lynch a townie who was actively posting(albiet somewhat chaotically) and answering questions as best he could. It's never a good idea to lynch a townie instead of scum especially not in a game where a miss lynch costs more than usual, if you think I'm an awful townie just ignore me, but don't convince yourself that I'm more of a threat then the people WHO WANT TO KILL YOU! Now on to you! Up until just a few posts ago you were still dealing with the fallout of a dumb suggestion. You asked for a no lynch... and then blamed your bad decision on inexperience. Thats a bit fishy to me, especially when the discussion TO lynch has already been had at length, so your inexperienced and unobservant. So after such a silly suggestion that you admitted was silly(remind you of someone and some poll? I spy some hypocrisy!) you decide to post some unique analysis on several players you've analyzed at length right? Nope! You accuse me! The go to guy for everyone who wants an easy contribution! You try to overcome the stigma of "don't comment on gumshoe, were all sick of him!" by saying that that is the atmosphere I want, in saying so you side step the entire point, you can comment on me, just comment on other players too, no ones stopped reading into me, they've just broadened out because they've realized that focusing on me too long is detrimental to the game (and also that a complete newbie who has less than a hundred posts on team liquid let alone on tl mafia is probably not this elaborate and risky) , the point is to keep all your options open. You don't have to stop suspecting me, I encourage you too, what I did deserves suspicion, but don't just focus on me, You have made almost no contributions this game, and your first major one was a stupid plan and the next one was an accusation against me. I'd like to hear your opinion on a few other people or topics, in tangent with your opinion on me if you wish, but running this same track will help no one. | ||
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On February 18 2012 12:04 Janaan wrote: Ok, Gumshoe, just a side note, next time you post a case with multiple quotes like that, please use spoilers amd regular quotes. It took me a couple read-throughs to even distinguish between the quotes and your own words. The problem I have with Gumshoe's arguements is that they seem generally like you're just attacking Midnight just because he was attacking you. That doesn't neccesarily mean that the analysis is invalid, I just question the motivation behind them. I understand your reservations, the reason though that I focused on Gladose's assault on me is because that was pretty much the only thing he did until he was accused of being scum. His contributed nothing but obvious suspicions and the suspicions directed at me grew almost systematically despite the fact that my posting got better as time went on as opposed to worse. Also I'll remember the quotes thing next time. | ||
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On February 18 2012 12:32 MidnightGladius wrote: MannerKiss is actively lurking and needs to step it up or die. Some of the other lurkers are active candidates for modkills at this point, but he's not, and that means that we should pressure him. However, gumshoe's posting is actively hurting us, and while I'm not certain that he's mafia, I'm growing increasingly convinced. I would consider both of these votes to be pressure votes. I'd honestly rather pressure gumshoe to quiet down and concentrate than pressure MannerKiss to speak up :D My strongest other scumread lies on EchelonTee, for the reasons I mentioned earlier: His sequence of 1) being glad that there was activity 2) accusing me without a case 3) saying he would provide a case 4) telling DYH to support my lynch 5) not presenting a case 6) leaving the discussion seemed really suspicious to me. I'm not going to offer you town reads, because I don't feel that they help the town find and lynch mafia, and they let the mafia know who to target to slow down the town's momentum. If I think a player is town, that doesn't mean that we're in agreement on any particular read, and vice versa. You apparently think that nonsensical attacks should be taken seriously. If nothing else, vote with the proper formatting so that it will get counted properly. You're missing a colon at the moment. That's the kind of posting that I really don't to have to deal with in the lategame :S I put alota work into that wall of text! Can you at least read a bit of it? | ||
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Last point though, my main problem with you is that your posting that was directed expressly towards me got more hostile as I generally started contributing more information. You never once doubted your suspicion you just grew steadily more suspicious of me. Same thing with Ech, you suspected him at the start of the game and you still suspect him now, more so, anyone else you suspect? Oh yeah Manner, the easy pick you made from before, you have basically said the exact same things as you said earlier before you were under pressure,your presenting old information as if its new and useful, its really neither. To me that seems pretty scummy. Also are me and Ech on the same team? So let me get this straight I go on irc with him instantly the moment the games started, tell him about my "awesome" poll, get the go ahead from him cause its such an awesome plan and tell him to call me scum to draw attention to me and him so wed be flamed so much that eventually it would seem too obvious that we were actually scum? Acuse one of us, or at least say its one or the other because the above is a theory far more incomprehensible than any of my posts. Seriously you still haven't contributed anything whatsoever, your proof against Ech is that he voted for you and backed off, he told us in advance he was going out long before he accused you. Weak sauce man , also wait till he presents his case sometime before the lynch before you say he doesn't have a case, maybe he wants to see you squirm a bit more. Oh one last thing, someone has a suggestion for you "You've had some experience, so I expect better pro-town play from you. And I will be watching." Guess who said that? | ||
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On February 18 2012 12:54 MidnightGladius wrote: Gumshoe, your argument against me consists of two primary claims: 1) My accusations against you have grown in intensity without reason 2) I haven't contributed significantly to town Let's be very clear here. You say that your posting has been getting better, but I strongly disagree. Early on, you had a bad plan. Then, you posted shaky reasoning for your plan. Then, you admitted to lying and misrepresenting the intentions of your original plan. Then, you started posting long lists and walls of text full of point-by-point analysis and confirmation bias. You can't just keep doing this. As to my levels of contribution, you're using that argument in a flawed way. I'm responding to my accusers, presenting my thoughts, and trying to make my positions as clear as possible. The town will have plenty of evidence about my behavior to go through in the coming days. What more can you reasonably expect of me? EchelonTee, you're free to do as you please, but when you say "More to come after this message," that creates some expectations. When you fail to live up to those expectations, that confuses me. As for jaj's case, what of it? I'm not contributing? Really? Early on I just defended myself and the silly post, I'm a new player I dint know posting observations in a list format is bad, I haven't done it since. Also whats was wrong with saying we have a better chance of hitting a mafia by lynching? Yeah I conveyed it badly but you blew up on that post. You haven't commented on who you might trust or steven's no lynch or Dimmuclocks switch, you haven't even addressed the other lurkers just manner. Theres plenty to talk about, foremost, if I'm town and you lynch is that better than a mafia kill? | ||
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On February 18 2012 13:02 Steveling wrote: Can I get views on my case against gom pls? Tell me if I made a logical leap or something. Meanwhile I'll read your cases, cause I was too busy with mine ,lol. "About the lynch-no lynch, I just thought that it would be a better idea in the current circumstances for town. But since I have no clue about statistics, if someone can justify that lynching is better then I'm all for that. I think that's clear." you say you have no idea about statistics, this isn't statistics, this is common sense, we cant miss an opportunity to hurt the mafia because theres one more mafia than usual, were just throwing away an opportunity to get rid of a useless lurker or a mafioso. Sorry you didn't say you were inexperienced, but you clearly were in this regard. . Also I'm not saying ignore me, you can address me every post, just talk about other things as well so your not a one note panda, that makes you suspicious and your not gonna say anything new about me cause theres at least 2 other people dedicated to taking me down, there has to be something else that you find striking, what do you think of gladeus only posting to accuse me manner and ech? Also please include something else about me in your next point if that delights you, but please adress my question as well. | ||
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On February 18 2012 12:57 Janaan wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 15:26 DimmuKlok wrote: Hello everyone, I just finished reading through the thread. I would first like to echo TKHawkins first post about lurking and availability when posting. I've been checking the thread nightly to see if the game had started, and tonight it did. I would not be surprised if the majority of people who haven't posted yet are unaware that the game has started. Now a little bit about myself... This is my first mafia game, and I'm looking forward to it. I really like gumshoe's idea with the report. I'm sure it's already common place, but I recommend everyone make their own private version of it. It's not hard, and it makes it a lot easier to keep track of everyone. I don't have much to contribute yet when it comes to suspicions. It's still too early. Something to add to the scummy actions of DimmuKlok: I didn't really notice this at first, and just now saw it while looking through his filter. He says that previous to the game starting, he'd checked every night to see if we'd started. Now that it has, he's nowhere to be found. Not neccesarily incriminating, but at least worth noting, along with previous posts against him (primarily Alderan's). We NEED you to start being active, DimmuKlok. For now, though... ##Vote: DimmuKlok That seems pretty convincing, dim said he'd be here to defend himself, he hasn't so ill just vote him till he gives us reason to suspect otherwise. ##Vote: DimmuKlok | ||
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On February 18 2012 13:16 MidnightGladius wrote: As I said earlier, who I trust is on a need-to-know basis, and the people I trust are not necessarily the people I agree with. Steven's no lynch was a dumb idea, he said so, and we're moving on. He hasn't tried to dwell on the topic, and so I don't consider that suspicious. DimmKlok's switch? He hasn't even voted yet, so I'm not sure what you're talking about. He is rather quiet, though, and that leads into what I have to say about the lurkers: they have said nothing, so I have nothing to build a case from. If they keep quiet, they'll be modkilled and replaced, and we'll go from there. If they speak up, then I can look at them. Mislynching is gives away so much information in terms of voting patterns and people's posting behavior, for and against. Mafia night kills only generate WIFOM, and there's not much more to be said about that. Right now, we're dominating the thread, and not in a good way. It's creating long argumentative posts and stifling actual discussion as we just bash our heads against the wall. Well in that case, I have agreed with and supported Ask sloosh jaj and allderan, I have disagreed ESPECIALLY with you, steveling dim and manner(in spirit) (and also a bit with everyone else) . So take what you will from that.. What I will admire about you is that if your lynched you wont really cast suspicion on anyone because a) you haven't openly agreed with anyone and b) you haven't really accused anyone but me Etch and manner and were all sorta suspicious regardless. Thats why I don't want to vote for you, you wont turn up anything really even if your mafia, but I still don't trust you. For now though I think your right, this isn't helping. Im voting for dim because he decided to change his policy on no lynching around the same time Steveling proposed a no lynch. So if he turned up mafia that might be useful. I'm really just wanna hear from him though so hopefully pressuring him will force him out, which is what we really need to do right now, get the lurkers to talk. | ||
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On February 18 2012 13:30 Steveling wrote: As you requested I'll post soon my views on DimmuKlok and Midnight. Gomshoe you are actively throwing away your chance to absolve yourself at least in my eyes. Read my 2 posts about you and anwer pls. I have no trust for you whatsoever, I'll reply to your question when! you read my wall of text! Kidding I'll answer, I had a plan at the start of the game, the goal was that everyone would just post town on the poll and I would post maf, then ask who was the troll town who claimed maf? I wouldnt even accuse them just make a note of them for later. I wifomed right at the start thinking that all of town would just vote town. I apologize for assuming what the honest guys would do. Instead everyone voted mafia, originally the plan was that if no one bothered to step up to the claim than I would just disregard the poll as a failure. My original reasoning i would tell you guys would be that I was trying to see how the remaining votes after the 11 green ones would turn out. Then I realized the huge mess my vote created and decided to admit to lying even though that could result in me being considered mafia there on the spot. You say hahaha look at gumshoe the trickster now, how clever he thinks he is to think he can fool the town! Do you have any idea how lucky I am I wasn't lynched the moment I admitted I lied? The poll was a huge gamble, admitting I was lying about the poll was suicide, I did it because I realized I messed up. You can mock my apologies to town as much as you like but I am grateful that I was given another chance. At this point there are several other suspects with solid cases against them, you yourself said that you were too busy writing your own case to focus on others, everyone knows the case against me which is a) I lied and b) I caused disruption at the start. There isn't any meta going on, I will certainly be revisited when the lynch arrives not because I am an evil posting mastermind, but because of the above. Feel free to keep wasting our time, ask me as many questions as you like. | ||
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On February 18 2012 13:46 Steveling wrote: Boy you are on fire, aren't you? Dimuks stance on lynching was the exact opposite from mine. I went from pro to against and he went from against to pro. With each post you make, I'm getting more and more confident about killing you, lol. Thats exactly what I said, read my post, you guys swapped stances almost right after you both posted, just seemed a bit synchronized and therefore a bit suspicious. I'm sticking to my vote on dim because worst case scenario we lose a lurker, I feel unsure about voting for you and glades because you are both active and theres a chance your just townies who think I'm the master of bluff. Any other questions steve? | ||
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On February 18 2012 13:59 Steveling wrote: Discussing more about you will hurt the town no matter your alliance so I'll stop here. I will post my views on others. Good luck. | ||
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On February 18 2012 14:27 DimmuKlok wrote: I accidentally posted before I was finished. I will continue from where i left off. I'm not actually sure what you meant by that, but nothing in that post was sarcasm. I'm was not bandwagoning when it came to gumshoe. He was one of my highest suspicions at the time of the post, and remains the highest on my list. For this reason I'm giving him my vote. If there is anything I can do for you guys to help prove my innocence then feel free to post it. ##vote: gumshoe I'd like to hear about you stance on gladeus hawkin and manner if you dont mind. | ||
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On February 18 2012 15:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Gladeus's posts don't seem like much to be alarmed about to me. Most of them are contributing to the topic at the time and seem to be pro-town. Hawkin and Manner I consider to be in a very similar boat. Both of them don't seem to be putting up much effort to contribute. As I've stated in the past, I'm not very comfortable lynching someone over inactivity in the early game, but I agree there needs to be some consequences. Inactivity certainly not to the towns advantage. I would love to see them contribute more of their thoughts. And Steveling? | ||
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I posted that poll way too early in the game to organize a hostile response with Ech, so now the huge grand arching plan that Steveling accuses me of would have to include Ech running back and forth to pm me a few minutes before that poll went up and his response landed. Logically one of us is probably mafia and one of us is probably town, that or both of us are town which could spell the worst case scenario if one of us is lynched on the first day and the other is lynched on the second or murdered on the first night. I think as things stand the ideal move is to lynch one of us today, if the person lynched is mafia that will all but clear the other of suspicion. But if the one lynched is town then you guys need to approach the situation a bit more cautiously, because its very possible that you could end up lynching two townies. so the best options are either lynch me or ech because we were opposed to one another at the very start and were the most suspicious posters, or vote for hawk because he still hasn't posted. | ||
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On February 18 2012 15:45 DoYouHas wrote: Just finished reading after being away for a while. Gum, for the sake of my eyes, when you quote walls of text, put them in spoilers. If you are doing analysis on that wall of text, link the whole thing then just quote the relevant parts. Also, the preview button is your friend. I'm going to go back over what I just read again and let it sink in a bit. I dislike that no one directly addressed my defense of gumshoe, with the exception of ET. I wrote it to be picked at and debated, but you all seem content hammering away at each other. Making big cases and walls of text is nice, but spending all your time on them is going to blind you. I know from personal experience. My schedule is going to be very busy tomorrow. I will be unavailable starting at 4-3 hours before the deadline and remain so for something like 8-9 hours. Do You, in what way did you expect it to be debated? | ||
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On February 18 2012 16:17 Steveling wrote: I did read your defense on gumshoe. I stopped taking it seriously after this The reason is quite obvious I think. Not that I believe that your play is bad or scummy DYH, but there's a point up to you can excuse one's behavior. Just look at gums last post, I won't comment on it, but just take a look at how hes trying to use "statistics" again(oh my) to prove his point. Anyway, I think all that should be said about gum have been said. Lets move on for now. Its not statistics - _ - Ech was the first guy to attack me, He seems suspicious and he's opposed to me, were not both mafia because there just wasn't time or reason to organize this big a backstab at the start. So say if Ech turned up mafia, that he would mean when he accused me he knew I wasn't mafia. If I turn out to be mafia it means Ech was right in calling me so and is a townie because as I said there wasn't enough time to set up such an elaborate back stab. If the lynchee is town then its best to drop the whole case for the moment to avoid a second mislynch. Also you've addressed one aspect of do's post, and disregarded the other. Yes Do defended me, but he also listed who stands where on the gumshoe front, no one has discussed any of the results of his findings. | ||
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##Vote: MidnightGladius | ||
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On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote: 1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? It was between you and gladeus, and I wanted to vote for gladeus as I suspected him from earlier, also in case you didint notice everyone attacked me at the start in some way, In fact I'm more suspicious of the people of the people who supported me but more on that later. Oh by the way thanks for this "i'm not good" I remember someone said they expected more out of you or something... As if they were making you out to be a better player than you were, it worked cause come lynch time I got the sense that you were a bit more of an experienced player, that person I recall reprimanded you and praised you at the same time. Still trying to figure out why. | ||
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On February 19 2012 09:48 zelblade wrote: Why are you suspisious of people who supported you? Why were you not around during the final minutes leading up to the lynch. jaj's reasoning that you might have woke up, voted, than gone back to sleep is obviously not what happened as you are here now. Give me a good reason for your disappearance. Your vote was important and we narrowly got a no-lynch. Why suddenly disappear after being so active in the thread? just an update, Ive been pretty inactive because I realized the only thing ive proven through my posts is that I'm inept, I haven't built a strong case on anyone, so I let other people talk while I researched, now I almost have two cases, in about 30 minutes I'm gonna present my findings. Moving onto the vote,I voted for gladeus because I felt he was mafia, I changed my stance on dim a while ago when I got the sense that he was just bandwagoning me , he didn't post any reasons just said I was suspicious , he seemed kinda out of synch with everything and didn't really get a chance to have a back and forth with his accusers, I saw no reason to vote for him when i felt gladeus was the better pick, I stuck with who I suspected. As to why I'm more suspicious of people who support me? I cant say yet, itll just sound like wifom without a case, I need you all to be a bit patient on that front. like I said thirty minutes. | ||
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On February 19 2012 10:24 zelblade wrote: You are missing the point here. My point here is that in the last 20 minutes or so before the lynch, it was clear that MG wasnt going to be lynched. We needed your vote on Dimmu, and we narrowly missed a no-lynch. Why werent you around the last few minutes before the deadline, when you were clearly online? I'll be looking forward to your case. Theres an hour in between my posts, it was 8ish when I rushed my vote, I didn't vote to establish a majority I voted for the person I found suspicious, I left to go eat. Also I've been awake all day pretty much, I just haven't posted. I voted at 8ish left to go eat dinner with my family, came back and read the results. Also are you actually mad at me for not voting for a townie? Or do you think I wanted to look as if I was right about not voting for the townie ? | ||
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On February 19 2012 10:46 zelblade wrote: Simply wanted to clarify for why you were missing during the lynch. I dont think that you wanted to look as if you were right about not voting a townie, but am simply curious as to why you were gone and just wanted to pressure you to see your reaction. you have it, any other questions? | ||
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On February 19 2012 11:25 Alderan wrote: Damn. I stand by my play though, I think the reads were pretty clearly scum. Reminder: When you are being accused, STAY ACTIVE, the more you give us the more we can find out about you. If you are town and you stay active generally this will be identified. I think everyone needs to focus on the hour running up to the vote. There was a lot of action and activity that probably didn't get %100 attention. I'm to check out the voting records, specifically the correlation between who came off of MG and ET and on what basis. Alderaan while your here what do you think of ASK? | ||
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On February 19 2012 12:29 EchelonTee wrote: I know, that's why I said it was weird. 1. You could have said more, still. Perhaps you hadn't seen DYH's post yet, but still, considering how meaty your post was the other game, this one looks strange in comparison. In your previous game, there were only really 2-3 substantive posts to yours, so the difference is not solely because of that. 2. I don't dislike your play; I respect your play tbh. I just think you're being scummy this game. Our posting styles are not substantially different. We post fairly long at times, shorter when having direct conversation. What I don't like is that you are honing in on people that I, and others, have noted to be noobier players who are not inherently scummy. There have been a lot of other people posting in the thread that you could easily be suspicious of, but you pick the reads that take the least work. You haven't generated NEW content, which is why I say you are not contributing. I really don't like that you're trying to define this as myself simply disliking your posting style. You're avoiding the fact that you haven't really been contributing. 3. People trying to use bad reasoning is anti town, yes. However, you used this as justification to vote gumshoe. The fact that FakePromise was green is damning for you; I know that you didn't use the fact that FP was green, I am the one who is using that. If you know that nooby and anti-town=/=scum, you shouldn't have voted gumshoe. I don't see how you can deny this. The facts are laid out. This is not at all a loose point, as you claim my case is. 4. If jaj does not want to pursue you then w.e. His original case, I liked. 5. your back and forth only lasted for about 1-2 pages, 2-3 posts each. You really didn't go on and on about it that much, and haven't presented much reasoning other than "acting obviously anti-town". This is a newbie game, you realize. I don't expect all townies to be pro-town. Can other people look at my #2 and #3 and honestly say that my case is baseless? @gumshoe, I'd advise you slow down your posting and try to be more coherent; activity is good, but you're starting to fill up the thread unnecessarily with a LOT of randomness. Analytical posts by other people have been buried. Just post when you've consolidated your thoughts. kk | ||
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Here were our four biggest suspects. Me: Do I even have to say anything? even I had a hard time going through all my posts when i went back and read the whole thread. Ech: for being excessively hostile at the start and not contributing much. Midnight: for posting generic opinions on me and manner and generally not contributing until put on the defence about not contributing, and then basically repeats exactly what he said about me and manner and accuses the people who accused him. Also suggested that me and ech are both mafia which seems kinda ludicrous. DimmuKlok: Posting suggestions that are sorta silly and then retracting them, lurking for a while, accusing easy choices. Turned out to be just a townie. If any of these players were or are mafia, I'm inclined to believe that the mafia is really really shitty. just look at these guys, they have absolutely nothing to do with one another, they attack each other or don't say anything about one another, there are no similarities between them, one is aggressive one is chaotic one is a lurker and one is too by the books. They have only vaguely similar enemies and few common agendas. I think we should be looking for the similar objectives between players as opposed to the suspicious individual activity. Because whats the first thing you'd expect out of a good mafia? Organization! Of which these suspects have almost none whatsoever, which leads me to believe that at best only one of the three remaining suspects from yesterday is mafia and it may not even be any of us We haven't been looking for organization because the good players who are capable of it, the ones who have played before, don't seem very suspicious at first glance , heres a list of players who have been giving off an air of experience and have been at least seemingly helpful. Do You Has Sloosh Janaan Jaj alderan trapdoor All Their posts seem pretty tight, if somewhat scarce at times. Theres a chance(I wont say a good one because I got fried for that last time) that one of these intelligent players is mafia in which case I think trying to find individual flaws in all their posts wont turn up much right now because their a bit more experienced than the average bear. You can yell at HAS for his play as much as you want, but hes is active and he proposed a no lynch(or a sloosh lynch) on the turn we lynched a townie. That looks bad on us, not him. That said if Do You is a townie I feel like hes just going on his gut right now in accusing sloosh, he should definitely expect sloosh to have a good defence just like he did last time, considering sloosh has proven himself competent and its too early in the game too have a big case against anyone of the grander players, that is if you approach them individually. If we want to gain any more information on players we think are scum but cant really prove we need to search for alliances and common agendas We need to try and see what goals groups of 2 to 3 players have been trying to accomplish. Here are my cases for active organization, there are two, the first one is founded on my bias against Midnight and steveling, the second is founded on my fear of the nightmare scenario for town. First :The notion that even if I flip green town still somehow benefits: This case implicates Midnight, Steveling and to a lesser degree sloosh. This is a very bold claim, I'm far more worried about the people who feel that even if I am town I should be lynched anyways then I am worried about the people who just claim I am mafia(like Blae who is totally justified in suspecting me). Because the later opinion wants to kill scum while the former wants to kill a player regardless of their alignment. This opinion is beyond reckless in a 15 player game with four mafia where the mafia gain a clear advantage if a townie is lynched(as one has been). It just seems like a bad move , unless you are mafia and you know that you have every right to accuse me of being scum and you also want to convince the town that the amount of chaos I've brought to the thread is more of a threat to them than you and your piers (the people who want to shoot them) are The first person to openly convey this perspective albeit lightly and constructively was Sloosh + Show Spoiler + Gumshoe I am seriously considering lynching you due to your anti-town play. You are cluttering the thread despite numerous requests to stop. Your posts are still without content. Saying that we have a higher probability to hit mafia since there are 4 opposed to 3 is irrelevant and unhelpful in finding the mafia. If you keep it up I will push for your lynch, because your play right now is detrimental to town. I actually don't read much out of this, at the time I was arguing about the odds of a lurker being mafia which really isn’t that helpful. I think Sloosh means what he means here, that I should stop cluttering the thread, this quote alone means nothing.. (Note though that shortly after sloosh made the implication that I was harmful to the town regardless of wether I was green or red Midnight attacks me) The next person isn't nearly as taciturn about the decision to lynch a harmful townie, Heres what steveling had to say at the end of his long vanilla accusation of me bieng mafia. + Show Spoiler + Your play is scum 100% gomshoe. You post in quantity but not in quality. You lie. You so admit it yourself. You make obvious WIFOM play. In fact your play is so weird that even in the off chance that you are a dazed towny it's still better to kill you off now. In that last part steve is making an entirely different case, not that I'm mafia, but that my death can only benefit the town. He makes this clear later on before he logs off + Show Spoiler + place my vote on gumshoe. The reasoning for this is in my case against him. tldr:I wanna kill him cause of his scummy play. Regardless of his allingment his play is ultra scummy, that's anti town. He again hinges on his argument for me being mafia, but makes sure to note that I should die either way. right now in the game were down a town and if I'm lynched and I come up as town that is a horrible blow regardless of what he thinks of my play, I know that for a fact, someone please argue for the sake of two mislynches please. If you convict me, convict me of being mafia, not a general threat to the town. Also this notion that its ok too lynch a townie is kinda funny coming from the guy who claimed to be the sheth of mini mafia. remember this? + Show Spoiler + So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1. weird wasn't it, his excuses later on for it? + Show Spoiler + With our current cases, I just thought that we were gonna lose a towny huh, pretty humane thing coming out of someone who proposed a few hours later that a bad townie is 100 percent worth lynching. Meanwhile I was fighting with midnight and midnight said the following + Show Spoiler + Mislynching gives away so much information in terms of voting patterns and people's posting behavior, for and against. Mafia night kills only generate WIFOM, and there's not much more to be said about that. Again another argument in favour of mislynching thats being given at a similar time as Steveling's argument. After that Steveling backed up Midnight's opinion, he backed up the guy who shared the same agenda with him(lynch gum) and shared the same phillosiphy with him (a bad townie is worth lynching) steveling even reached out to defend midnight! The guy who was fighting his battle with him. The behaviour between these two seems of a very similar vein despite the fact that Steveling has only addressed Midnight once in the whole game and to back up his similar opinion. Heres one last thing that bugged me about Steveling, he said this spoiler]With each post you make, I'm getting more and more confident about killing you, lol.[/spoiler] doesn't he mean lynch me, or vote for me? How can you alone kill me? He didnt say "makes me wanna vote or convince everyone else to vote for you" you said kill me. The only people who kill in this game are mafia and vigilantes. Steve if your a vig why would you risk yourself by using that phrasing? If it was just a slip it was a careless one and it doesn't help my opinion of you. So thats the first set of correlation's I wanted to talk about and it was very easy to talk about because I don't like Gladeus( how he backed off of me to vote for Ech when people started to pressure him didn't at all help my opinion of him) and I'm not a fan of Steveling, this next part though is not gonna be to easy to suggest. Because this is my nightmare scenario, I think until we lynch a mafia we need to actively consider the worst case scenario ,the possibility that the mafia has the mental upper hand, that they are intelligent and have come up with plans to adapt if a teammate catches fire. My next set of accusations will begin shortly and just to clarify they dont have anything to do with my accusations against steve and midnight. | ||
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Just look how much these players have been supporting each other. Jannan said + Show Spoiler + One player that concerns me right now is MannerKiss. First he gets called out to provide some decent content by DoYouHas, then he posts a single sentence acknowledging DoYouHas's post, but doesn't post any content. I'm getting slightly scummy vibes from his play right now. It's worth looking into as we go forward. In this post Janaan heavily suspects mannerkiss and in doing so he suggests that Has is trustworthy and was right to pressure manner. more from Jannan + Show Spoiler + DoYouHas: Pretty strong towny feel to me. He's been willing to call people out and promoting real discussion from the town. Sloosh: Still on the neutral side, BUT probably leaning toward the town side of things. Since defending himself from Echelon, he's been trying to clear the thread of fluffy responses, to allow for real discussion, which is also what he did in NMM3. Alderan: Feeling a bit towny to me. He was the first to provide a full-on case against someone, which is usually a pro-town action. So we see Janaan once again supported Do, his reasons seem valid but almost eager, as if hes searching for nice things to say about HAS. also Jaanan's post on alderaan is kinda funny, he speaks from experience saying that good townies post cases but... + Show Spoiler + This is my first game of forum mafia, I've played very casual in-person games, though most of those have little to no actual scum-hunting and just fairly random fingerpointing, so I'd barely count that as real experience where did you learn this exactly? Isn't this suggestion pretty wifom to begin with? Heres some more compliments for Do out of trap door. + Show Spoiler + DoyouHas seems to be pointing the town to the right direction: taking the confidence to be the first to post (BUT last newbie mafia the first poster turned to be scum, with the difference that it was just fluff), gathering information and making his stand clear to everyone. Seems very pro town from me, the same way he did it in NMM3. Heres some more + Show Spoiler + DoYouHas Very active, pointing good posts and having a very good analysis in his posts. A very good town read from him. Trak door also says this about alderan. + Show Spoiler + He looks very town for me at least. You made your stand clear from the start and you are pressuring Dimmu. Looks very neat so far. and this about Jannan + Show Spoiler + Janaan Hard to read. He has good intentions and makes good points, but I still i want to hear more from him. Looking forward to his posts. Jannan has reinforced do and alderan. Trak has reinforced do and Alderaan and says Janaan has good points. Do compliments none of them openley as of yet but as we see up ahead... + Show Spoiler + Here is my thinking on gumshoe so far. I think he is a townie. gumshoe has done a number of things that are not helping the town. The have been pointed out quite a few times so I won't go into depth about them now. Things like derailing, cluttering, unclear-ness, lying, a few inconsistencies. Yet in spite of this my intuition keeps pulling me towards a townie read for him. Here are a few of the things that are informing this stance: First and foremost is gumshoe's reckless and active posting style. I just don't see him as someone who is checking his posts with team members or even as someone who is going to a mafia QT and discussing his moves. He strikes me as playing by the seat of his pants, which is something I would not expect of scum on day1. This is supported by the little inconsistencies in his posting (I am thinking specifically about the one trackd00r pointed out) Secondly, gumshoe has both continued to defend himself about the poll while admitting that it makes him look scummy. I would expect a couple things from a scum put in a similar situation. Either he would play it off as a ploy and a joke in order to get people talking (which he did somewhat) and then try to put it behind him, or he would take some early shots at throwing suspicion onto someone else. He did not try to put it behind him, he even says that you would be crazy not to be suspicious of him for the poll. He took a long long time to start throwing actual suspicions around which I think is a long time to wait when you are scum and in the spotlight early. Like I said at the start, this is a stance based on intuition, not solid logic. So feel free to pick at it. I'll leave you with a bit of information that I've been keeping track of. People who have been defending/supporting gumshoe (soft or otherwise): struck out names are for those who have switched DoYouHas, Alderan, Janaan, TKHawkins, People who have been attacking/suspicious of gumshoe: MidnightGladius, blae000, ET, Steveling(kinda), trackd00r, sl0osh, Dimmuklok, jaj22, the big thing here is that Do You is basically saying that from his point of view anyone who suspects me(gumshoe) is either wrong or mafia. The problem? Look at all the people in the suspects chair. The suspects include everyone he has called out or threatened and then some. He's making a direct correlation between what he considers scummy behaviour and the people who were suspicious of me, so if he were a bit more specific here you could get a read on who he thinks is scum for accusing me, but he throws way too many people out there into the suspicious section(over half the town) the list cannot be used to ascertain Has's opinions because it's too big. The guys on your side though? We see janaan, your biggest supporter, hawk whose a lurker and Alderan who is also complimented by janaan and track. Another thing, you are the only veteranish player on your side of the list, very curios when you think about it, the other veterans are naturally suspicious of anything so blatant as my poll, thats why theyre veteranish, you though stand alone, resolved in your faith in me. I don't believe you, you should be on the other side of that list, hell you even were a little suspicious a short while before you posted this list(you said so yourself). Why is DO making this list, why is he helping me the person whose most suspicious? To be honest I don't really think its to save me, I think its a preliminary strike, if I die and flip green he looks good because he didn't suspect me and he gets to crumb suspicion on sloosh and ech or any one else on this HUGE list of suspects. This list is meant to be a tool of Do's later on in the game once I'm lynched. This is a pretty big risk to take as town just to gain some cred though, Yet as mafia there is not a risk at all in defending me(gumshoe) because a) you know that I'm town because I'm not part of your mafia and you therefore know that when I flip I wont draw any real suspicion back to you, in fact if I'm lynched you look stronger as a result because you were right about me all along while everyone else according to you was suspicious because they were in the suspicion department(huh, just realized that the number of people in the suspicion section was 8, majority vote. Enough to get me lynched.) now reason b) I'm under fire, so you know I'll gladly accept your aid without suspicion, also because I'm on fire you know theres a good chance I'll be lynched day one or day two, in other words your investment in me will pay off very quickly, ill die you'll say something along the lines of "I TOLD YOU SO" to everyone and gain massive influence, enough to linch someone like sloosh who you've marked out since the start of the game. Also I don't care what you thought, your choice vote to sloosh did three things, 1, wasted a vote, 2 put more doubt on sloosh 3, allowed you to separate yourself from the ramifications of the vote. these things aren't good for town, they're good for you, HAS is just helping HAS. You are wasting our time, and you almost wasted our vote. Your not looking too friendly and neither is your fan club, whose support seemed to have just vanished on the seven winds the moment we began attacking you. Trackdoor do you still support Has? Why? all these questions will be answered soon! find out whose scum next time on dragon ballzeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Night night | ||
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On February 19 2012 16:23 DoYouHas wrote: On a side note, if you are going to shorten my name, please use DYH. It sticks out to me far more than Do, or Has. kk DYH, k so about manner, I have an issue, listen to this quote + Show Spoiler + MannerKiss, his fairly immediate response to me calling him out told me he was paying attention to the thread IE, actively lurking. The two explanations for which would be a new townie unsure of what to post, or a new scum unsure of what to post. The one-liner back at me and his lack of a response to me trying to call him out a second time make me feel it is more likely the latter. You know who said that? Someone confident, someone who is logical, I 100 percent agreed with the you who wrote that and I still do, so why in babylons name you would swap this opinion for this? + Show Spoiler + sl0osh: It may be that sl0osh just has not had time to sit down and really work things out yet, but what he has posted so far still makes me suspicious of him. I already made my original post against him, and that has largely been dealt with. He provided an explanation, and I thought it was reasonable. What isn't reasonable is his extreme lack of taking a stance. I divide his responses into 3 things: responses to pressure, explanation of the game, expressing his own views under his own volition. It is VERY troubling to me how much of the content he has posted fits into those first two categories. Explanation of the game: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Responses to pressure: ET vs sl0osh (1) (2) (3) (4) Expressing his own views: (1) (2) (3) Take note that the only person he has expressed an opinion on that didn't first attack him is gumshoe, and even those opinions are non-committal. sl0osh has done almost exactly what ET has done, except he hasn't provided us with any stances that we can later use against him. I refuse to believe that with 4hours left in the day, sl0osh has no opinions or cases worth posting. He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him. this is such a weaker case in comparison, and phrases like + Show Spoiler + He is just trying to slide by, I won't let him Instead we barely lynched dim and manner didn't even get a single bloody vote. DYH if you really are trying to contribute i ask that you be willing to vote for at least two people tomorrow, if Sloosh continues to write insubstantial stuff then fight again, but if he steps up at least entertain the notion that he's town so you don't end up being a factor in a no lynch(which we can no longer afford really). | ||
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If anyone has any questions ask. Otherwise I'll start making a case for who I DONT think is mafia. when does night end? | ||
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You then say that lynching a bad towny(yourself that is) is wrong. No dude,it's not wrong, and in your case, it's actually recommended. So do you still propose lynching me even if I'm town? Also + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote: One of my biggest concerns going into the vote was that it felt like the majority of us were set on the players who had made common individual mistakes. It feels like were not really entertaining the notion that the mafia might actually be playing well because were so set on the idea that they are obvius and awful. On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote: Theres a chance(I wont say a good one because I got fried for that last time) that one of these intelligent players is mafia On February 19 2012 15:30 gumshoe wrote: Because this is my nightmare scenario, I think until we lynch a mafia we need to actively consider the worst case scenario ,the possibility that the mafia has the mental upper hand, that they are intelligent and have come up with plans to adapt if a teammate catches fire. Each and every one of these statements is designed to throw us into chaos chasing our tails. It's the pinnacle of a fluff scum post. We all need to start considering an effective mafia as well as an incompetent one for our next vote, I'm sorry if thats painful for you to hear steve. our first four candidates were all very blatant seeming mafia, the list seemed to go on the basis that the mafia was weak and would slip up early in the game. Note we only had one lurker on that list. My accusation of DHY was weak, but I wanted to take my own advice and not just encourage other people to accuse good players, rather I wanted try to find a scenario where mafia might have that upper edge, (but I dont think I did the greatest job at it, still I stand by DO's support of me being a risk free move if hes mafia) I propose that you at least try and do the same, unless you have other pressing matters, which... you clearly dont. + Show Spoiler + Congratulations gumshoe, I just wasted 1 more hour. That was over 7 hours ago, this was the span of time was when you were supposed to be thriving, providing quality analysis. Instead you just banged you head against the wall that is me for an hour, ignored the fight between sloosh and DYH, and then neglected to provide any insight regarding the mislynch, as if your opinion on it is just "woops!" I understand your suspicious of me, to be honest i don't mind if your vote stays on me. If town wants to lynch me because I'm a bad townie the time is now, because if we mislynch one more time we wont have that kind of wiggle room, but you've already made your case against me clear, its there for anyone who wants to read it. So please something else, suggest a new plan, or look back at the voting patterns just before our mislynch. Or do I need to attack you again just to get you to say something? | ||
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On February 20 2012 06:17 Steveling wrote: Ya gumshoe I know, my plan on checking someone else didn't materialize cause you added fuel to the fire and I didn't have the time to read all day today. Gonna sleep now, god(and gum) willing I'll do some more constructive play tomorrow. Please before you go to be can I get your opinion on DYH? | ||
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On February 20 2012 09:24 DoYouHas wrote: Ok, we need to look closely at jaj22's posts now. The three most common reasons mafia hit someone are because they are on the right track, because they are largely considered a confirmed townie, or because mafia suspect them of being blue. I did not spot any obvious things pointing towards him being blue in a quick run through of his filter. This makes me think that he was killed for either for being close to a confirmed townie or because he was on the right track. He consistently pushed Midnight, he leaned town for both gumshoe and ET. Those were the main points of his stances, there were a few smaller ones. I am definitely taking this as a reason to reevaluate Midnight. I think your wrong Do, he screamed blue. Look at his responses to my early assessment of him(his responses are the ones bolded) + Show Spoiler + Hes hostile very hostile, but doesn't seem like mafia. I just don't like day 1, because I can't read anyone who doesn't have a decent post count. That's why I'm concentrating on trying to make people post better. If I'm sounding hostile I should correct that because it's likely to put people off posting. All these things can be interpreted as good mafia play though. What really seals the deal for me in thinking hes town is his efforts to communicate with other mafia semish veterans. Actually I thought I was mostly ignoring them because they had a decent post output and hadn't done anything daft My one complaint is that jaj keeps virtually all his findings to himself so far. I expect a case out of him at least before vote just because It seems almost certain that he's picking up a lot on almost everyone here. Nah, there's no-one that I really want to lynch yet. Hopefully that'll change as the post count increases. Jaj actively tried to tone down my positive assessment of him. He could've just not responded to this post. For mafia this seems like a big give away. On top of that Jaj had only one major accusation/ongoing fight all game(against mg) which means lynching him allows many distracting conflicts to stay in place because he had so little interaction with anyone but Mg as opposed to players like DYH and sloosh who have had fights with multiple people. Also Jaj he was a heavy mediator/directer of town. His play was guided well informed and somewhat subdued but not absent, if you asked me who I thought was blue before last night I would've definitely said jaj. In the wake of Jaj's death Midnight remains a strong candidate for suspicion, but I'd like to point out that unlike Dyh who everyone attacked the moment he seemed suspicious Mg has obtained some interesting support , heres an example from Hawkins TkHawkins + Show Spoiler + jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. I really don't like this above post, it sounds like Hawkins is trying to deflect Jazz away from Midnight without actually looking like he's supporting mid, also in the process he tries crumbing suspicion on Jaz. This is exactly the kind of support I'd expect out of scum. There a few others who seem to be helping him in a non confrontational way, but right now I want to address Hawk who hasn't contributed much and has suspiciously supported Mg, who seems by far the most suspicious and whose death at this point I think will yield the most information. Also in response to Ech about killing jaz being a bad move, I really think it was the best move possible for these reasons Jaj was the least suspicious player in the game at the time of his death. He only had one accusation active and that was against someone who would look suspicious regardless who died, Mg. The following conflicts have remained intact depite Jaj's death Sloosh-DYH Ech-Mg Steveling-Gum Manner-everyone Nothing is resolved by Jaj's death, Mg looks bad regardless unless hes lynched and shows up as town. Plus assuming that MG isnt mafia because jaj's death would obviously incriminate him is wifom all the way. In fact if we start thinking that the mafia is framing mg that might actually be the surest way to let him completley slip out of our sights. Here are My suspects Hawk, Mg and Manner(where the hell is this guy?) I'm putting Steveling on hold because he came to mg's aid in such a blatant manner, but I'm still suspicious of him. | ||
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On February 20 2012 10:05 Mattchew wrote: I enlarged and bolded what I thought and still think is a scum slip... scum know who are town We have all had to go on gut feelings at points throughout this game, I'm still here despite all reason(re read my early posts again euuugh) mostly because of several gut feelings, I apologize if that seemed suspicius to you, but look at this post will you Mattchew. Jaj + Show Spoiler + I'm not sure you're reading this properly. After being caught out, Gumshoe has admitted to substantial dishonesty through his early posts, including one that he doublespaced for EchelonTee. If what you're looking for is liars, we have a confirmed one already. The only reason I haven't voted him is that players who make this sort of ridiculous and dishonest plan in newbie games have a nasty habit of flipping town. Jaj basicaly said that I looked like scum but he didn't vote for me because he had a feeling that I would flip green because of how ridicules I was at the start. Just like I had a feeling Ech would flip green if we lynched him because of his overly aggressive risky attitude. Is Jaj mafia then? Huh, nope he was the detective. Maybe we should've have lynched him yesterday though for his uber scummy behaviour when we had the chance right Manner/macchew? I was siding with Jaj's assessments of Ech and Mg, and I had my own personal ghosts to hammer out with Mg as everyone knows, that is why I refused to vote for Ech and instead voted for Mg. Any more questions or accusations manner Macch? or maybe ( god and gum forbid) some new contributions or reads? Side note:If nothing new comes up I will post my vote of Midnight or Manner/machew within the hour. In the meantime i'm gonna go through Hawks filter a bit. | ||
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On February 20 2012 10:09 Mattchew wrote: i replaced manner That doesn't change your original role -_- so I can still hold you accountable for manners early actions. by the way while your busy with me what do you think of Steveling? | ||
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Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!) | ||
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On February 20 2012 10:52 Mattchew wrote: lets not give scum too much credit nor get in our heads about scum kills (it will drive you crazy and the more you think and type about it, the more scum will fuck with you in the future)... jaj was just played really townie, and they shot him. steveling reads as town to me Man I like you even less than manner, you are trying to discredit everything I've said not by addressing it, but by saying I post too much and claiming its Wifom to think about why scum kill, DYH and sloosh are also playing super townie, but they don't get shot, why? Because their fighting each other. Jaj was just fighting Mg who several other players have rightfully attacked, mafia is clearly trying to preserve all the small fights that are going on right now to confuse us, oh and don't give mafia much credit? What? Again were being caught in this mentality that mafia is playing badly, for gods sake why? Why are players only entertaining obvious scenarios and not at least considering several possibilities? Were only on day two, we can still try and ask ourselves what ELSE could be going on. Also i asked you for a read on steveling, you just said he feels towny, kinda like how I said ech feels towny, should we lynch you because of that scum slip? Please just give me a bit of a read on why you think Steveling is towny. It'll be a good opportunity for you to provide some evidence to back up a claim, which you haven't done so far. | ||
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Mg we need to know what you are now, because a lot has been going on and you've been at the centre of it, I feel that if we dont get a grasp on the situation today, things are gonna spiral out of control. Still I really don't want to mislynch you, so if I cant at least somewhat combat your case I will back off and vote to lynch manner/Mich who I think is probably our safest bet. Ok so unless anyone has anything to ask me Im done posting for the next few hours, but I'll probably be shoving my head in here and there so feel free to ask me questions, respond to me, accuse me or whatever you want. Night night. | ||
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On February 20 2012 12:08 MidnightGladius wrote: I just got back from a rather exhausting shift at work, and I'm not really in the mood to get back into the rough and tumble. I see that no one has brought up my case against Alderan, who apparently isn't even on anyone else's radar: There have been no references to him in the last 2 pages, and the ones before that all come from people putting him on a town list. This, incidentally, is why I think town lists are terrible, because if you're wrong, you're giving that player a blank check, and if you're right, then the mafia have a better choice of targets. He said that he'd be back by 7-8 EST, so he should have had a few hours now to respond by now. And he hasn't. I'm personally perplexed by how people think I'm the most scummy here. We have among us lurkers (Alderan and blae000, who for what it's worth is getting replaced anyways), admitted liars (gumshoe), and players who still haven't explained their actions (Mattchew). I've been trying to play an honest and accountable game, but the major cases against me (EchelonTee, DYH) point at ulterior motives (not having a "town perspective," and not directly addressing a case that I felt had no merit, respectively). The frustrating part of all of this is that, by accusing my intentions and not my actions, you're leaving me with no way to convince you otherwise. I'm really not sure where to go from here. I have a solid read on Alderan as mafia, but if no one's even going to consider what I've been saying, then I'm going to stop wasting your time. Hopefully, my mislynch will be enough to convince you that you've been going about this the wrong way all along. I...believe you. Your right, all you've done is play a safe game, I'm just biased against you for accusing me and I apologize for that, what can only sound to me like an honest plea has convinced far more than any case. ##Unvote: MidnightGladius As for your case on Alderan, I agree with it, but I think right now accusing DYH will accomplish more because I cant see sloosh's beyond angry conviction as Scummy behaviour and killing DYH will answer so many goddam questions, Furthermore I really feel that DYH hasn't as much addressed the accusations against himself as much as he's dropped his attack on Sloosh and taken it up against more obvious players, like you. That said If both Sloosh and DYH are town and we lynch DYH and then lynch Sloosh because DYH came up green, we are that much closer too losing. Midnight I'm willing to vote for alderaan and manner/Mitch. I'll follow your lead as to which one. Also I've sorta seen connections between Alderaan and DYH so if alderaan flips scum I think our vote on DYH will be much more consolidated. | ||
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On February 20 2012 12:23 trackd00r wrote: I think it's time I have to catch the thread again. Personally, I'm not convinced with MidnightGladius case. I don't agree with the reasoning that jaj and ET gave. I'm not going to get into details about that, since we need to focus in other targets that don't create chaos. Alderan is lurking quite heavily now. And I need to say it. He has been one of the least contributors in this game so far. I have the feeling that he is just watching the thread, and watching us bash each other. + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 02:01 Alderan wrote: Hi guys, excited to get started. Ok so here are just my thoughts as I read through the thread (going to be pretty peacemeal as I catch up): As for my experience, most recently I played in SNMMIV as scum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232826 And before that I played a Vanilla towny in http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500. I've also read a couple games all the way through I see that next we entered the obligatory Lurker Lynch policy discussion so I will throw in my $.02. We need to approach this in a way where lurkers know they will get lynched if they do not post. Our philosophy should be that someone who is blatantly lurking WILL get lynched unless of these 2 situations happens. 1. Adequate involvement from everyone. I have seen town get so focused on lynching a lurker that when that person becomes active the bandwagon has already started rolling so fast downhill that there's no stopping it. That person ends up being town more often than not. 2. There is an obvious scum slip or we can identify someone almost assuredly as scum. Let's make sure we don't hit a blue in our insistence on lynching someone day 1, if the obvious choice is not there, it's not there. That will be decided much closer to the end of the voting period though. Stay diligent. This poll is comical. I still fail to see the reasoning behind it. While discussion is good, let's not go round and round about that, almost no substantive value to be had. More worrisome than the poll is how quick to the gun ET was. Without formally FoSing, in my opinion you have already semi-accused DoYouHaas, Sloosh, and gumshoe. Do you stand any of these at all? If so which is the most scummy? I don't like it, and by it I mean blasting away with the accuse cannon nonstop. We need to hear from Mannerkiss again definitely. Gumshoe you're absolutely correct about Midnight Gladius's ratio post. What is the easiest way to "contribute" without actually contributing anything thats not common knowledge? Speculate about the setup/discuss the ratios and KP, and inactive lists. Those things are not inherently scummy, but they must be followed up with additional contributions. This first reminded me a lot of Zarepath's first post in NMM3, where he turned to be scum. Starts off with a fluffy hypothetical talk about what happens if X situation occurs. Then it goes on and makes the obvious remarks: The poll, ET vs sloosh and calling out manner kiss. Notice how he is just checking the thread. Then his next 2 posts are about gumshoe. Nothing really worthy to add to the discussion. Then it goes this case against Dimmu. It's ok, a lurker, everyone can be suspicious about (even I did). But that's not the point. I would've expected to vote him right away to put some pressure. Instead he just waited to other chaos to set in to cast his vote, when everyone was having different suspicions in other people. He addresses other players in a very shallow way. His opinions to ET and gum were very light IMO. If you think that just writing a case in the easiest case and posting everyone 5-6 hours is going to work, you are wrong. What do you think about the MidnightGladius case? Or DoYouHas'? FOS: Alderan Trakdoor whats your opinion on janaan? | ||
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##vote: DoYouHas Midnight are you willing to vote for DYH? If not why do you think Alderaans case is stronger? | ||
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1: An AMAZING case on someone else. (Be wary though that he might sell out a team mate if he is mafia.) 2: him focusing more on number one instead of defending himself. 3: someone else who is an active poster and a big contributor to town providing a very solid case for him. Night night. | ||
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On February 20 2012 21:52 zelblade wrote: Matt, is this how you usually post? I dont like this style of posting. You give next to no reasoning for your reads. No reasoning. No reasoning. Next to no reasoning. You are not being transparent with your reads. One of the main aims as a townie is to prove your innocence. MannerKiss was doing an excellent job at failing at that, and your shallow one-liners are not helping. I would seriously consider changing my vote onto you if not for the fact that DYH is much more likely to flip scum. Zell I want you to think back for a moment, remember the start of the game? DYH accused manner and manner had that wonky response for which DYH said he was mafia, this happened pretty early in the game so I am inclined to believe that they are not both mafia. Unless you are suggesting that DYH convinced one of his teamates to sacrifice himself that early on(which isnt outside MY scope of possibility but most people tend to be a bit less imaginative then me) Your accusation against mittch is valid if DYH flips green. in which case mittch looks just awful. So save your accusation for then, right now it feels like your trying to crumb suspicion on mittch not for this vote, but the next. As if you've seen the hit your team is about to take and feel the need to ensure that a mislynch happens tomorrow on one of the most obvious suspects. That said I am paranoid at the moment, so I'll drop my vague suspicion of you. Right now we are discussing DYH, no one has offered a defence for him despite the fact that if someone tried hard enough they could pull a case together because of how seemingly active he's been. So I think scum are now trying to distance themselves from him. Heres whats I think is useful to hear right now in my opinion. A defence of DYH before the psuedo deadline and suggestions for where to go if DYH flips green or red. me on if DYH flips greed: If DYH flips green we need to start taking safe bets, so a Mitch lynch would be good in that scenario. | ||
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On February 21 2012 00:19 zelblade wrote: It is entirely possible that both of them are scum. Remember, mafia, especially at the start of the game, arent gonna buddy each other up - it would be obvious that something was going on. It is entirely possible for DYH to throw out some pressure onto manner easily. What i actually find suspisious now that you mention it is this: at that time when DYH decided to throw out his pressure on manner, why him? There were so many others that hadnt posted at all yet, yet out of all of them he chose to call out mannerkiss. I'll just quote ur day 1 list here. + Show Spoiler + Early reports! All very preliminary but hopefully it'll give everyone an idea of where some townies stand and where some lurkers don't. blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one) Alderan - Absent no alibi Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) : Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious. track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so ) no reason to suspect as of yet Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius Janaan- is absent no alibi tk hawakins- is absent no aibi dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi zell - is absent no alibi jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy. As you can see, so many of us (including me), were not active yet. Why did he choose to pressure mannerkiss out of all of them? I find this really wierd and it seems that DoYouHas could be distancing himself from manner. So no, I dont believe that my accusation is valid only if DYH flips green (rather unlikely). I also dont see how DYH flipping green would incriminate mattchew though. Could you point it out to me? And yes, I agree that the lack of defense for DYH is really wierd. This could obviously mean that we are: 1) Wrong 2) Its a bus! 3) Scum do not have much of a thread presence/are not being influential, and thus are not willing to take the risk to go ahead with a solid defence of DYH, and are thus, as you said, distancing themselves from him. Im currently sold on (3) personally. I dont believe that mafia would be actively bussing him at this point in time just for some town cred. Town cred is fickle and I would be pretty glad if they were doing so as they would be giving us a pretty dangerous scum on a silver platter. To be honest I never intended to vote for matt even if DYH flipped green, look at these posts + Show Spoiler + Hey guys... I have read a little but am about to go to Atlantic City for the night. I read through the top 3's filters (ET Dimmukok and Midnight) and I think that Midnight should be the lynch today. No reasoning whatsoever to vote for Mg -_- just arbitraliy accuses him + Show Spoiler + Scumslip. You hang tomorrow Makes a vicious attack without evidence that was most likely meant to pressure me, which is a move I expect early in the game. + Show Spoiler + i changed my mind. midnight and gum are both bad lynches. gumshoe after more reading is trying really hard and is pro-town. midnight i am skeptical of but is not as good a lynch as doyouhas. Completley pulls an opinion 180 which is always suspicious on day 2 + Show Spoiler + thank you for both proving my previous post about the 2 of you true. lets go get the real scum it looks like scum is bussing dyh or we are really far off base. How can he not possibly not expect these two comments to draw suspicion to him if DYH flips green? Matt strikes me as neither an overly flashy player nor a very lurky one, to me he sounds like someone whose posting as if the game has just begun and for him thats exactly the case. He's still flexible and a bit more free than us to say what he wants and change his opinions because he hasn't really had any fights or developed any enemies, Manner has, not him. I wanted to hear more out of you about Matt so I pushed you a little, and your reasoning is solid so I retract my suspicion. In response to what you said about DYH distancing himself from manner, you missed something crucial. It wasnt mutual Manner + Show Spoiler + Doyouhas pretty strong townie feeling to me. earlier I considered why DYH called out Manner, I went through all this back when I made my long accusation of DYH and a few other people, but dropped my suspicions on manner because I couldn't see why he would support DYH despite DYH's accusation... it would've been ideal for mafia if Manner hated DYH right back which creates more conflict. Finally I will refer to what others have pointed out, townies are more likely to lose interest and drop out of games. Mafia tend to be a bit more invested, but that last part is complete wifome so disregard it if you please. | ||
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On February 21 2012 02:40 DoYouHas wrote: Right now I am pretty convinced that you all are going to lynch me regardless of what I say, so I'm just going to try and get all my analysis out there by the end of the day. You are holding to another mislynch, and I can't argue you off it. I've tried and tried, and I'm tired of trying. So instead I'm going to pour my brain out into the thread so you will have as much DoYouHas analysis to look back at as possible. Thats what I want out of you, would you mind starting with hawk? | ||
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On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote: Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? | ||
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On February 21 2012 06:57 DoYouHas wrote: My thoughts on TKHawkins and Janaan TKHawkins + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote: Welcome. First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started). As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute. And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. bolded-He echoes Midnight's sentiments and tells us about his lack of voting in the poll, which for the life of me I can't see a reason for explaining this. underlined- Then he proposes a policy of not going after lurkers early, which as I have previously mentioned, is convenient because he is one. But even beyond that, he provides some WIFOM reasoning as to why we should not go after lurkers which, as a number of you have pointed out, the scum could easily just read and act differently if we were to ever adopt this reasoning. He lurks for about 26hrs, then provides this weak analysis of Janaan+ Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote: Janaan 1. In that quote he basically accuses almost everybody who had posted in the thread at the time of being lurkers or scummy. Its not really helpful to spray such accusations without backing it up. He complains about "fluff" posts but does not include Gumshoe in his list of people who are posting fluffy. 2. He then kinda jumps onto a DimmuKlok bandwagon based entirely on Alderan's post. 3. He says all the right things but isn't really contributing. @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? 1. That list accused exactly who it said it would be accusing, the people who only had a couple of posts in the game so far and had yet to really get past the fluffy policy talk at the start of the game. It doesn't make sense that gumshoe would be on that list, he had posted frequently, and even if those posts were lacking merit, he was a center of conflict in the thread. 2. He is trying to frame Janaan as someone who was letting Alderan doing his thinking for him. But that is clearly not the case if you read Janaan's posts relating to Dimmuklok. 3. I also think he is saying the right things, and I think it is because he is Town. + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote: Gumshoe does not follow direction well though. I do not think he'd actually listen to scum telling him not to post like that. After all, people have already told him not to post like that here and he ignores everybody. He's definitely giving noob vibes. But a noob could be town or a noob could be mafia. The moderators assigning roles randomly don't care who gets what role. The idea of "he's acting too noob so he must be town because mafia would stop him" is a flimsy argument because he could just be a noob. I don't see how we are supposed to decide his innocence or guilty solely based on that. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Hawk presents a similar reasoning to Midnight's regarding gumshoe then comes that underlined section. That first sentence is valueless. Then we get to his summary of the reasons that gumshoe could be town. Did anyone expect Hawk to decide gum's innocence or guilt based just on that? I certainly didn't, that wasn't my case. Now we get to his list of reads post, as I mentioned previously it is difficult to draw meaningful analysis out of a post like this, but I do have 2 thoughts. + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote: Gumshoe Has had to spend most of the game defending himself. Looking at what else he's done besides that, he suspects Gladius for spending too much time on commenting on the set up. FOS's MannerKiss. Comments on how DimmuKlok made an accusation against "the most obvious runt" (Manner) and and the "second most obvious seeming runt" (himself). Later comments on how Ech and him are now the most obvious votes and pushes for Ech. These are the comments of somebody scrambling to stay alive, not scum. Blae Quality post with a new argument against Ech for being too aggressive. Gets ticked at lurkers. Sees trackd00r and Janaan as pro-town. Blae feels very pro town to me. Would love to see more, but with the Europe timezone difference I think I will end up playing phone tag with him on the weekdays. Alderan Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes a case against DimmuKlok, Neutral until I can see more. Ech Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. DoYouHas Mostly bogged down with Gumshoe. Trying to tag sl0osh as a good player who wouldn't make such mistakes. It makes no sense to try to meta analyze a player with only one game of background. DoYouHas is jumping on perceived mistakes. Suspicious. MannerKiss There is a difference between lurking by not posting every 4 hours and lurking by actively reading the thread and then just not posting on it. Suspicious because is following the thread and not posting. Steveling Pushes a no lynch and then says he just got confused on the day length. Pushes the gumshoe, who is already getting a lot of heat. Suspicious because no lynch is anti town, even if we had no real leads and because he focuses us back on gumshoe. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Midnight I can't get a solid read on him. Slo0sh Still think he reacted too strongly to Ech and DoYouHas accusing him. Why feel guilty as town? Focuses discussion back on Gumshoe, possibly to distract us from his scum buddies. Suspicious. Janaan Had a good explanation for a bad early post I pointed out. Seems to be trying to get other people's reads, so looks pro-town. DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much. jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. Every single one of us has earned a town/suspicious/null read from TKHawkins at this point, EXCEPT Midnight. He has since made the point that he is not the only person who had a hard time reading Midnight, which is true, I was one of them. However, I find it strange for 2 reasons. The first is that he managed to pull together a read on every other person, strange to me since I was having trouble with multiple persons. The second is that TKHawkins clearly had put a fair bit of thought into gumshoe, but didn't have an opinion on Midnight, who was highly involved with gum. Even I had at least looked at Midnight long enough to identify a few suspicious things in his play while I was preoccupied with slOosh. This is supposition, but I think there is a chance that TKHawkins tried to buddy trackd00r early. + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote: @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? Deferential tone. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Agreement. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Strong pro-town read. Hawk's next 3 actions are to illicit blae's opinion on Midnight, defend Midnight by questioning jaj22's intentions, and vote ET, giving 1 weak reason of his own, and citing the reasoning that Midnight was using to put suspicion on ET. For someone who has no opinion on Midnight, I think TKHawkins has spent far to much time defending him and working towards the same ends as him. As for Janaan My opinion on him is pretty obvious if you read my points on TKHawkins. Janaan has been contributing, trying to pull information out of people, he pointed out that he made a mistake with his vote on ET instead of trying sweep it under the rug. And unlike a few of you, even though he is currently convinced enough to vote for me, he seems to be holding himself apart from the situation a bit to avoid tunneling, something that I appreciate. Thank you for posting exactly what I expected out of you. The issue of Tk Hawkins and janaan are linked, Tk has been tunnelling janaan for a while now and I think his case has some basis, but only if your scum. You accuse Tk of buddying despite the fact that you have had what I consider one of the most notable buddyings with Janaan, plus while Hawk has stuck by his opinions so far janaan began distancing himself from you( though without condemning you) a while back when you first became suspicious. its really very simple, if you flip red we lynch Janaan, if you flip green we lynch Hawk, because the only thing hawk has done is really tunnel Janaan and I consider you and janaan linked so if you come up green then I support Janaan your opinion here on Janaan and I will suspect Hawk. i just wanted you to say Hawk was bad which would imply you think janaan is good. I appreciate you making things simpler for me. After DYH has been lynched I will provide an in depth case on why I think we should lynch janaan if DYH was red or hawk if DYH was green. One thing though, Hawk has had little to do with DYH just like Janaan, so this post by DYH may be an elaborate scheme to make us lynch janaan when DYH flips scum because he supported Janaan with this post and turned out to be scum, however I do not think there is even a remote chance that neither of these players are mafia. | ||
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On February 21 2012 07:14 Steveling wrote: Interesting read. You made quite a few connections about midnight and hawkings but you didn't state your conclusion. Are you actually saying that they are working together? Clarify please. You missed the point -_- he thinks Janaan is town and Hawk is scum because he's been tunnelling Janaan(among other things) Did you just read the first half or something? He discusses Janaan clearly at the end. Do you think they're working together? | ||
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On February 21 2012 07:21 MidnightGladius wrote: You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him. Your right about the wifom, well cross bridges when we get to them, one scum at a time. What do you think about my plan on Hawk and Janaan? Is it too narrow minded? | ||
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On February 21 2012 07:26 Steveling wrote: So, he thinks janaan is town, hawk is tunneling him, so hawk is scum? Yeah better let him explain. lol And anyway I'm not interested in town reads, I'm interested in scum reads. Thats exactly what he's thinking and if you've been keeping track of the game you would know that Janaan and Hawk are the two most under the radar and unhelpful posters, both lacking excuses. I've been suspicious of them for a very long time, as of now Janaan doesn't even have his own case, he just bandwagoned onto DYH without individual reason, in the past his excuse for that has been I don't wanna say anything thats already been said about him, which is by far the most unuseful thing you can possibly say on a primary suspect. Janaan lives in the states, his only time issue has been thursday (which he noted) he should be one of our most active posters, he should be posting things first before anyones considered them. He hasn't, his accusations all come off as fluffy pressure and have not yielded a single clue. He has bandwagoned twice, once one Dim and now on DYH I will post a more in depth case on him later when DYH is dead but Steveling how can you possibly dismiss how unuseful Janaan has been? Point out a highlight of his play for me that has made a real difference to town please. As for hawk, I'll deal with him if DYH flips town. | ||
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On February 21 2012 07:38 MidnightGladius wrote: It's way too deterministic. Deductive arguments like that work if and only if you are completely certain of the premises, and I've seen one town player tunneling another way too frequently. I'd be more comfortable following up on Alderan first, and seeing what develops from there. I'll post my case when DYH flips, you know there are more than one mafia, are you at least willing to consider Janaan or Hawk instead of Alderaan? | ||
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On February 21 2012 07:38 MidnightGladius wrote: It's way too deterministic. Deductive arguments like that work if and only if you are completely certain of the premises, and I've seen one town player tunneling another way too frequently. I'd be more comfortable following up on Alderan first, and seeing what develops from there. Also whats your opinion of me? Do you still feel as if my posts just hurt town? | ||
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On February 21 2012 08:01 DoYouHas wrote: It is not very simple, if I flip red, then you cannot trust my cases period. You know that I already consider myself as going to be lynched. All my stances could be misinformation, either spreading suspicion on townies, or distancing myself from my team. The point is, you wouldn't know which because it is all WIFOM, and would have to end up relying on your own analysis again. Luckily, you won't have to worry about that because I'm going to flip green. But even after I flip green, all that tells you is that my cases and reads are coming from a townie, you will STILL end up having to rely on your own analysis again. The speculation in your post serves no purpose. You need to understand that. I've been considering both Janaan and Hawk for a while, theirs is one of the minor conflicts thats been playing out in the back ground. I suspect them not because of your post, your post is a foundation if you flip scum and If you flip green I'll just you cite on the back of my accusation of Hawk. Thats all. You also seem to underestimate the benefits of knowing someone is not lying. | ||
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On February 21 2012 08:20 Janaan wrote: Just got back from class and read through everything. Gumshoe, just as a reminder, you can't lynch someone just because you think that they can be connected to an already-flipped mafia. If you have an actual case on either me or Hawkins, fine! Present the case, just make sure it's not based in assuming that one of us is scum because of DYH's reads. I will have a case ( : but it does hang a bit on whether or not DYH is mafia so I'll post it after today, in the meanitme DYH what do you think of alderaan and trak? | ||
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Alright, back from work. After catching up with the thread, let me start by addressing points made against me. [QUOTE]On February 20 2012 13:39 EchelonTee wrote: Also, people who try to tip the end of the voting line to guarantee a lynch are under suspicion. That would be me and TKHawkins. If you think I'm suspicious for doing so I wouldn't blame you, but I had previously indicated suspicion on Dimmuklok, so my vote switch wasn't motivated solely due to, while TKHawkins had never revealed any qualms with Dimmuklok. His vote sealed the death; this isn't a massively incriminating factor, but it is something that should be noted. [/QUOTE] This is actually not true. [QUOTE]On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote: DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. [/QUOTE] I thought Dimmu's posts were too apologetic. He was not contributing reads. The vote pulled away from Ech very quickly as the deadline approached. It was obvious due to the activity level and approaching deadline that the only lynch that we could get votes for were Dimmu's. I figured a lynch on a guy who I thought had a good chance to be mafia was better then no lynch at all. In hindsight it did not work. But it was still the right call at the time considering the information we had at the time and the cases before us. As for gumshoe's analysis with me and Janaan, it boils down to that I have suspicions against somebody else that there is no bandwagon on yet. That's it. It is never too early to reevalute town reads. On to DYH. [QUOTE]On February 20 2012 09:24 DoYouHas wrote: Ok, we need to look closely at jaj22's posts now. The three most common reasons mafia hit someone are because they are on the right track, because they are largely considered a confirmed townie, or because mafia suspect them of being blue. I did not spot any obvious things pointing towards him being blue in a quick run through of his filter. This makes me think that he was killed for either for being close to a confirmed townie or because he was on the right track. He consistently pushed Midnight, he leaned town for both gumshoe and ET. Those were the main points of his stances, there were a few smaller ones. I am definitely taking this as a reason to reevaluate Midnight.[/QUOTE] He WIFOMs hard here. Which is often a distraction. But why does he need to reevaluate Midnight. [QUOTE]On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote: I have been trying to make a cohesive case on just 1 person and failing. Instead I'm going to present some of the things that I have been looking at while trying to make that case. MidnightGladius: He has been acting largely how I would expect him to. My questioning of gumshoe's probability was largely to draw MidnightGladius out after gum responded. I think that Midnight's attacks on gumshoe are not something I can use against him for right now when analyzing. The thing that I find strange about Midnight's play so far is the number of one-liners that come off as trying too hard to be fearless once he came under fire. [QUOTE]On February 18 2012 09:45 MidnightGladius wrote: You're not even going to vote for me?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]Welcome back! The last we saw you, DYH was your first scumread. Now, he's "pretty strong townie"?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]Finally some excitement! Or are you just going to run some of that point-by-point analysis with the red numbers?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]You apparently think that nonsensical attacks should be taken seriously. If nothing else, vote with the proper formatting so that it will get counted properly. You're missing a colon at the moment.[/quote] He soft accuses Midnight earlier. There is no reason to "reevaluate him" if he was already still somewhat suspicious of him. He defends Midnight's reactions as correct, but then points to Midnight's one liners as “trying too hard to be fearless once he came under fire.” This is a soft accuse allowing him to jump on Midnight again today. I'm confident DoYouHas is red. There are too many cases against him for everybody's read to be wrong. The scum slip where he forgot to remove himself from the list of eight suspicious people who could be mafia is a give away. ##vote: DoYouHas[/QUOTE] If it makes you feel better I'm leaning towards Janaan right now not you. I pushed DYH a bit about you because I wanted to see his response, why? Because Janaan is the common link between you and DYH( Janaan has supported DYH but distanced himself accordingly when DYH attracted suspicion meanwhile you were attacking Janaan) by asking him about you I was really trying to ask him about Janaan who are deeply connected too, if DYH flips scum I am almost positive Janaan is scum as well. That said your case on DYH is sorta irrelevant at this point because he is going to get lynched, I would much rather you spend your time pursuing your case on Janaan or building a new case on one of the twilight players like Trak and alderaan. | ||
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On February 21 2012 08:55 Alderan wrote: You have got to start using preview gumshoe.... Alderaan! Your back! Hey whats your opinion on Trak? | ||
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On February 21 2012 09:01 Mattchew wrote: steveling you can have in on it too Matt there is no pming in this game, everyone scum hunts together, even the mafia who at least have to look like they scumhunt. If you have suggestions for who we should look into or a case to show please oblige us. | ||
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On February 21 2012 10:39 slOosh wrote: Not reading anything till you explain this. DYH will be lynched today. Unless anyone has substantial evidence as to why he is town, HE WILL BE LYNCHED TODAY. Sloosh, you know there can be framers in this game right? | ||
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On February 21 2012 11:03 Mattchew wrote: also theres the chance of a miller gum Whats a miller? | ||
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On February 21 2012 11:08 Janaan wrote: EBWOP: As promised, since I wasn't very convinced by the case ##Vote: DoYouHas Also Janaan whats your take on Hawk? | ||
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On February 21 2012 11:27 Mattchew wrote: Miller- You are just an ordinary citizen of the town of Liquidia, well, almost ordinary, unbeknownst to you, you sleep walk, and often end up visiting the graveyard and other suspicious locations, for that reason, you return Mafia to detectives who choose to check you. Millers are not informed that they are millers, rather they are given regular vanilla townie PMs. Well thats shitty. | ||
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On February 21 2012 11:29 Janaan wrote: I have a scummy read on him right now. Probably one of the scummier things about him right now, at least for me, is how defensive he's being about his vote on DimmuKlok. This is his only read on DimmuKlok before the vote. And this is his read after the vote. Hndsight bias? Maybe. If nothing else, he was hiding his real read as the vote got closer. That whole situation with matt was really a very easy opportunity for you to hop on Hawk whose been tunnelling you for ages now. Yet you didn't do that and instead suggested that we don't jump to conclusions which has drastically improved my opinion of you. My vote stays on DYH till sloosh gets back to me in an indiscriminate way. Yet I think Hawk is looking like a good option in the future, I suggest everyone consider him at least a little. | ||
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Remember his early reads? Look at the people he called suspicius. + Show Spoiler + Ech:Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. + Show Spoiler + Jaj :Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. + Show Spoiler + Slo0sh: Still think he reacted too strongly to Ech and DoYouHas accusing him. Why feel guilty as town? Focuses discussion back on Gumshoe, possibly to distract us from his scum buddies. Suspicious. + Show Spoiler + DYH: Mostly bogged down with Gumshoe. Trying to tag sl0osh as a good player who wouldn't make such mistakes. It makes no sense to try to meta analyze a player with only one game of background. DoYouHas is jumping on perceived mistakes. Suspicious He is focusing suspicion on the four players who are most active and most constructive at this point in the game. His reasonings? Sloosh:Too defensive,Ech: to offensive,DYH: jumps on mistakes (can easily just be seen pressure at this stage in the game) Jaj:Shouldve pressured someone else basically he calls all these players suspicious for active behaviour. What really gets me is that he is accusing jaj of flashy play when jaj really isn't that bad at this point in time and his accusation of Mg was just because he felt the game was stagnating and Mg was playing too safe, also Jaj was detective so your point about him supporting flashy players because he's flashy is mute on two accounts, 1) of the four people you called suspicius Jaj is the least flashy, and 2) it was just a false accusation. What is interesting though is your assault against jaj convinientley defending flashy players convinientley backs up your implicit argument against flashy players. Hawk is trying to cause conflict here and plant the seed of suspiciun against active players which is horrible, because if your suspiciuns are founded on whose playing flashy/active, than that means in your eyes players who continue to contribute condemn themselves more and more. If this is your stance as a town player you need to drop it right now because it's poison, but I don't think you have to worry about that because I am almost sure you are mafia. I still stand by my suspicions of players who supported me early on purely because a) there is no risk involved in backing me up if they know I'm town and b) the move provides easy credibility if I am lynched. your whole post begins with me. + Show Spoiler + Gumshoe Has had to spend most of the game defending himself. Looking at what else he's done besides that, he suspects Gladius for spending too much time on commenting on the set up. 1) I didn't suspect gladius for the set up, I suspected gladius because he made really safe bets and was active in the thread but didn't see the need to take any risks like several other players did. You also didn't even post the second part of my anylysis which was just a few posts down + Show Spoiler + He has commented on ech and sloosh but only to suggest that they (more specifcaly ech) calm down, his responses are tame. He has seen no reason to take any big risks. Wether or not thats becuase hes trying to be a reasonable townie (as is most likely) or becuase hes trying to hide in plain site. I leave that up to you decide. I for one do not yet reason to doubt him. This is very relevant information, in fact I consider it far more useful analysis than the comments on setup. You don't even mention how I pointed out that behaviour, you subtract everything except my comment on setup. I feel like you are actually playing down my suspicions and reducing them to just the comment on setup, which the following person would later say isn't really condemming: + Show Spoiler + Zell blade: I am null on MidnightGladius for now. His posts have been related to the setup as mentioned, but he did seem to focus alot on the setup in Newbie Mini Mafia III too. Could go either way for now. + Show Spoiler + Now onto MidnightGladius. I do not believe that he is mafia. He seems to be playing really similiar to NMMIII, where he (on day 1 at least) constantly posts fluff and speculates on the setup. However, ET raises some good points against MG, and I would like to see his responses especially to the "scumslip" raised by ET. I am not willing to lynch him for now. + Show Spoiler + I have also repetadely stated that MG is probably town - he seems to be playing similar to last game, with a tendancy to post fluff and speculation regarding the setup. I also didnt really find his actions condemning. However, having reread his filter and taken another look at ET's case, he does seem to have a tendancy to push only the easiest targerts In all three of these he admits there is reason to suspect Mg, but those reasons never seem to make him suspect Mg, in fact next time his comments on Mg the scum slip vanishes and is replaced with + Show Spoiler + I have also repetadely stated that MG is probably town - he seems to be playing similar to last game, with a tendancy to post fluff and speculation regarding the setup. I also didnt really find his actions condemning. However, having reread his filter and taken another look at ET's case, he does seem to have a tendancy to push only the easiest targerts Notice how he keeps re-mentioning the setup? Thats because the setup argument isnt that strong alone, yet Zell continuously seems to suggest our strongest argument against Mg is the setup which really is'nt the case, our argument against mg is that he plays too soft and only attacks as he said easy targets and those who attack him. This looks like teamwork. Hawk plays down my analysis of Mg and reduces it to me accusing Mg of commenting on the setup and Zell repeatedly mentions how this setup argument is'nt a valid basis for accusing Mg. Also what the hell is this? + Show Spoiler + he (on day 1 at least) constantly posts fluff and speculates on the setup how is this behaviour helpful to town? Also Mg has played like 1 or two games and you want to exonorate him because in his first or second game his play style was unhelpful? Cmon man, you cant be that blind. Dont worry though Zell when lynch him Mg we promise not even to bring up the setup kk? ok that said I am making a case for Hawk not Mg or Zell, one scum at a time right? Now moving onto the rest of that post regarding me! + Show Spoiler + FOS's MannerKiss. Comments on how DimmuKlok made an accusation against "the most obvious runt" (Manner) and and the "second most obvious seeming runt" (himself). Later comments on how Ech and him are now the most obvious votes and pushes for Ech. These are the comments of somebody scrambling to stay alive, not scum. Notice how he tries to discredit me further? He says I'm scrambling to stay alive, he makes me sound like someone desperate, someone willing to say anything to live, someone you shouldn't even remotely trust a word out of because they're not in their right mind, you know who sounds like that? Scum under pressure, yet whats his next line? not scum. He says it with such authority, much better players than hawk in this game are far less convinced that I'm town, but listen to that confidence. Not scum he says bah. Hawk accomplishes three things with this post. 1)He makes me out to be out to be witless, which suggests that he's encouraging people people not to listen to what I've said so far, in other words don't listen to my accusation of Mg. 2)He protects himself in case I'm lynched and flip green. 3)Downplays the arguments against Mg that I made by just saying its suspicious how mg comments on setup, which sets up players like Zell to continuously mention how baseless the setup accusation is in his future defences of Mg. His assurance that I'm town lays the boundaries for his next few accusations. + Show Spoiler + Steveling Pushes a no lynch and then says he just got confused on the day length. Pushes the gumshoe, who is already getting a lot of heat. Suspicious because no lynch is anti town, even if we had no real leads and because he focuses us back on gumshoe Pounces on steveling for a newbie mistake, then accuses him of suspecting me. He does a similar thing with DYH if you read back on why he's suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + Dim:Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. makes himself out to be better than another player because hes less apologetic, oh hawk, you are aware that players are a bit nervous their first time right? Why you see the need to separate yourself from typically nervous new players is very interesting. Mitch has also pointed out the several positive/null reads on zell mg and track so look back at that if you want. Heres a nice jem that comes up. in regard to Ech + Show Spoiler + He then jumps along with jaj22's post and votes for Midnight. He would not be on my radar if it wasn't for that. I can't see a strong reason for the MidnightGladius vote especially with both the people voting for him not backing up their vote once it's questioned. Contradiction. earlier you say: + Show Spoiler + Ech:Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. now here comes the biggest reason we should suspect Hawk which is also the most obvius. + Show Spoiler + bahh ##vote DimmuKlok Provides the killing blow against dimm, this is suspicius within itself, but read what he says next. + Show Spoiler + *Panting*... ok, god. Going to go eat. Da fuck? Why you would leave just before you find out if the guy you just killed, is scum or not? You are more invested than ANYONE in this result because YOU ARE THE REASON DIMM DIED! Yet you dont wait 6 seconds to find out the result? Why else would you not wait unless you already knew the outcome? CAN I GET A PRAISE SCUMSLIP!!!!!!! When he comes back ages later? + Show Spoiler + Alright, having reread some stuff after the flip, Alderan was the first to put up a case for DDimmuKlok and stuck on him. On February 19 2012 07:34 Alderan wrote: Show nested quote + Can someone please explain this sentiment? Am I missing something? To my case he responded: "I'm new, I'm new, I don't understand your case, I'm new." His play after my case: "I'm still on my gumshoe wagon, I don't know what to think about Midnight, I don't know what I think about Hawkin and Manner, and I'm too tired to give an opinion on Steveling" If someone can please point me to the direction of pro town play I would greatly appreciate it. And he is another player posting his inability to read Midnight and some weak calls. Janaan was willing to switch to Ech from Dimmu to try to guarantee a lynch even though he said he didn't think Ech was scum. On February 19 2012 06:27 Janaan wrote: At this point, it's looking like the lynch will be either Echelon or a no-lynch. I am still undecided as to which I prefer. On the one hand, I'm not really getting a scum read from Echelon, just a aggressive townie. On the other, we need information. I am usually in favor of lynching, since it provides information that is unavailable any other way. If there's a no lynch, the voting record is almost entirely useless for the day. For now, I'll vote. I just hope that it's not a huge mistake. ##Unvote: DimmuKlok ##Vote: EchelonTee But then he switches back to Dimmu and gets the bandwagon going on Dimmu started again. The reason he voted for Ech was because he didn't want a nolynch day one. Then he changes his mind and votes for a target he thinks will cause a nolynch. On February 19 2012 07:08 Janaan wrote: Show nested quote + Yeah, I think after thinking about it for a bit longer, I really don't get scummy feelings from you at all, and I haven't since the game began. As SlOosh reminded me, lynching people you don't think mafia is not a good idea. Now I just need to decide who to actually vote for... ##Unvote: EchelonTee On February 19 2012 08:18 Janaan wrote: It seems that I'm the only one not voting atm. It really looks like unless something very drastic happens, we're gonna end up with a no-lynch. Of the cases presented, probably the one that made me think most was SlOosh's case against DoYouHas, but I'm still not ready to vote for him. As for the case against MidnightGladius, I understand where Echelon is coming from, but I have slightly different opinions on Midnight. I think I have to stick with my original read at this time, as much as I don't really want a no-lynch Day 1. ##Vote: DimmuKlok He's willing to vote for somebody he doesn't think is town to guarantee a lynch, but then vote for somebody he thinks is scum to force a nolynch because it was his original read. Not only that, the reason he gave for changing his vote "I don't get a scummy feeling from you at all" is bogus. Janaan didn't have scummy feelings from Ech when voted for him. He already balanced the we need info vs. I don't want to lynch people I think are town in his head. FOS Janaan He comes back and doesn't even comment on the fact that he caused a misslnch? First time townie my ass, if he was town he would be apologizing to oblivion for causing a mislynch, instead though he attacks Janaan! A player who hasn't even seemed remotley scummy up to this point. No one has accused Janaan exept me and that was my nightmare post, Hawk is using this useless tunnel on janaan to avoid commenting on the major cases at play. His tunnel on Janaan is founded in part on Janaan being suspicious of ME, again how is hawk so confident I'm town? Hes not even considering me as mafia, why? Because he know im not. Heres my favourite high light of his post + Show Spoiler + And he is another player posting his inability to read Midnight and some weak calls. Umm you know who else does that...? + Show Spoiler + Like I said earlier, I still can't get a good read on Midnight, and looking through filters neither can a few other people. Even your accusation starts with "oh, screw it. I'm making a case." That makes me think you don't even believe the accusation yourself. You even say the only reason you did it was because you were bored. If you have something more since then to back it up, please post. Otherwise there is no way in hell I'm voting for Midnight based on just that. You are putting suspicion on Janaan for not having a read on Mg which is something I would say you are notorious for. You are clearing yourself of suspiciun for a crime by showing how guilty someone else is for that exact same crime. Fun fact: it is eons before you answer for the mislynch. Oh here another defence of mg post in the meantime. + Show Spoiler + Thoughts on EchelonTee I still don't buy the Midnight argument. There is sorta a WIFOM argument to his post's existence. Half the town had told him if he didn't post something against Midnight, we were lynching him. So, he posted something against Midnight. He'd post that regardless of whether he was town or scum. On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote: Show nested quote + 3..........this has to be a scum slip. FakePromise was a GREEN, TOWNIE last game. If you see another fakepromise, why are you voting him??? How is he being malicious, hes just making bad statistical analysis!! at this point you are pushing a terrible lynch. So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip. On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote: Show nested quote + 1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope. On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote: Show nested quote + I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so. He defends Mg by casting doubt on mg's accuser. Hello indirect support! Hello scum 101! + Show Spoiler + That's the definition of WIFOM logic. Best not to over think it. As for your suspicions against me because I was against the Midnight vote. I couldn't get a good read on Midnight, and neither can a lot of people. The only people who did have a read on him were reading him as scum. That fact alone is odd and suspicious. I'm not sure Midnight is town, I'm just more comfortable following my own reads then blindly following somebody else's. I hate it when players try to shut down conversation, this is exactly what Hawk is doing here. He also makes another attempt to discredit me without accusing me. Yet thats not the gem of this post, look at the bolded part. Look, a townie's biggest job, the job that is the hardest and burdens them all throughout the game, is the job of convincing others that they are worth listening to. Hawk does not do this. He makes no attempt to contribute in a positive way, he is very hostile and the only person he doesn't seem to really suspect... is me. Hawk is not trying to convince us to trust him. He is trying to make himself distant. By saying I follow my own reads he is essentially saying I trust myself and no one else. Which is a horrible thing to say for a town whose job it is to convince OTHER towns.There is no humanity in his posts, he is beyond cold. This bolded part suggests that when day three roles around he will bust open a huge case and expose all the mafia. Which isnt going to happen because in scenario a) he is town and no one listens to him because he comes off as hostile and suspicious and in scenario b) he is mafia and he is trying to make his opinions as useless as possible(just like he's trying to make mine.) without seeming blatantly suspicious. Please someone tell I am wrong on all these accounts. Tell me how Hawk wasn't the reason a townie died. Tell me why he is actively trying to seem so hostile to the point that we will never listen to him. Tell me how his tunnel on Janaan is useful. Tell me how he's so sure that I am town. But most of all please tell me a story about why this man is not mafia. So that I can tell you a story about why you are. | ||
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On February 22 2012 05:36 Mattchew wrote: your case is fine.. but its because I gave you 4 scum... you realize lynching DYH is a bad thing if he flips green right? Been suspicius of zell and hawk long before you boy still not sold on track and mg | ||
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On February 22 2012 05:47 Steveling wrote: I'm surprised to see gum making coherent posts. And formated correctly! lol These last posts about hawkings make me see him as scum as well. I'll add trackdoor on top of that. Do you think we got good chanses for more scum in this case? Meaning 3/4 or even 4/4? And what do you think of trackdoor? It's like everyone is avoiding him. Please share. One scum at a time steve. Yes track is uber suspicius look at how quickly he showed up in the thread wheb MITCH attacked him, right now though we need to focus on the scum who are threats, and as useless as he is i dont see trak as threat, just terrified scum, but hawk... Among other things hes the reason we mislynched. He needs to be dealt with as soon as possible. Hes the tip of the ice berg, if he flips red, then i will be almost 100 percent sure of two other players guilt. | ||
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On February 22 2012 08:20 TKHawkins wrote: Sadly I was misinformed. The bandwagon seems pretty set on me (and continues to be shocked that I'm not here to defend myself better while I'm at work and unable to post). I'll be writing up all my reads and cases and posting them at/near the end of Night 2 to avoid my posts having any WIFOM impact on the night actions. Hawk please look at my post on you one page ago, also if your at work dont worry, no ones voting for you right now, take a deep breath, look at my post and wait till you get home, then defend your self. You just come off despreate asking us to wait. Also i dont wanna hear your reads at the end of tonight i wanna hear them as soon as possible. Your in no position for pleasentries. | ||
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On February 22 2012 09:17 Mattchew wrote: hey gumshoe... remember that time i told you to take your vote off DYH? any regrets listening to your great leader sloosh? Nope, sloosh will be of use now. And my case hinged a bit on dyh's alignment. Everyone who hasnt read my case on hawk please do. | ||
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On February 22 2012 22:04 zelblade wrote: Btw the hawkins on my lynch list applies only if he (Hawkins) decides to calm down and come back. As stated I rather not lynch a replacement coming in immediatedly. Zell i dont want to hear any more lynch options out of you until you read my case on hawk.(Oh and on a side note if youd lynched manners replacement two days ago you wouldnt have such a headache right now) raging out of games is exactly what mafia do, also your points raised against tk are just the tip of the ice berg, please read my case and adress it point by point, right now we dont need "this guy seems sorta suspicius" we need hard cases, so far the only ones that stand are mine against hawk and ech's against mg which can use an update, steve's track case deserves hounareble mention but as i said track is not a threat whereas hawk most certainly is or at least has been and hes far more aggresive. Also to matt, calm down with the chainsaw, we focus on hawk right now, he is the only person I know 99 percent is mafia. I am willing to be lynched or whatever if hes not. Note if you defend hawk in passing without adressing my case convincingley i will assume suspicius activity. Also dyh's case on hawk while less detailed stands if you want a second opinion. I will be home soon so ill be more active today than last night. If someone has another lynch candidate I would like them to post ONE strong case. Anymore out of one person will be distracting at this stage in the game. ZELL I am not listening to another word you say until you adress my case, your in thier a bit by the way so theres your personal incentive. | ||
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On February 23 2012 00:52 Mattchew wrote: i am waiting for someone to adress my case. No one has in depth but several people have said that they do not want to lynch hawk. They havent even mentioned what i said, im still waiting on zells response. We work through our suspects on at a time. I have been as over dramatic you seem to be tunneling a little bit, and you are coming off conceited saying things like "we focus on hawk right now, he is the only person I know 99 percent is mafia." and " if you defend hawk in passing without adressing my case convincingley i will assume suspicius activity. " This is exactly what sloosh did, and that didn't work out too well As possible in regard to hawks case to make it garner as much attention as possible , but I am not sloosh and niether is he anymore I think. If a better case comes along I will stand by it. Till then I stand by my own thurough investigation. | ||
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On February 23 2012 01:59 slOosh wrote: (I was going to post on all four but its taking longer than I thought so I don't think I have time to do it all, I'll post what I managed to do so far) With some reevaluations my own reads and consideration of DYH's reads, Mattchew's reads overlap pretty well with mine. I'll be looking to bring the case from speculation into substance. Zelblade: I don't like how his actions align with mafia agenda. It doesn't mean he is mafia, but I don't like it. His day 1 actions happen to be in best interest of mafia. Go for ET, prevent anything on MG, offer DYH as alternative, refocus people on DYH after night. I say it again - it doesn't mean he is mafia, but it does mean he warrants suspicion. So let us look. Observe here his stance on me and DYH Supports my case but makes sure to let people know how he is suspicious of me. How can you support a case from someone who you think could be scum?? It doesn't matter how good the case is, if a mafia is proposing it you don't support it. Now that DYH flipped town, he knows it can't be a bus. He is convinced that one of us is scum, but doesn't actually follow up on it. "Oh I think you could be scum but your case is pretty good so I'll support your lynch btw I still think you are scum. Oh the lynch was a townie. I'll ignore you now". I don't think anyone (even inexperienced players) would think / act like this. Also, in the same quote: Doesn't really make too much sense here. Only one person will die. His reason for posting is fear of death, and at the same moment tells other people to post just in case they die too. I don't understand why he thought he would die. This again aligns with mafia agenda - get people to post scum lists to make better night kills and make most chaos. (Will post maybe 1 more before I AWOL for IRL stuff until tomorrow evening in ~35 hours). I was gonna post a case on him before midnight but seeing as he seems to be your target ill leave him to you, take a lot at my hawk will ya? Also heres something for your case if you want it. Zell + Show Spoiler + And yes, I agree that the lack of defense for DYH is really wierd. This could obviously mean that we are: 1) Wrong 2) Its a bus! 3) Scum do not have much of a thread presence/are not being influential, and thus are not willing to take the risk to go ahead with a solid defence of DYH, and are thus, as you said, distancing themselves from him. Im currently sold on (3) personally. I dont believe that mafia would be actively bussing him at this point in time just for some town cred. Town cred is fickle and I would be pretty glad if they were doing so as they would be giving us a pretty dangerous scum on a silver platter. This reasoning is awfully flimsy for why its option 3, and perhaps a bit prophetic. Yet of course Zell chooses to lean towards option three and not considering the other two (which both happen to be true) because its the one that earns a mislynch. I think the mafia are playing this game just like us, one mislynch at a time. They cant do that though, they are trying to rush the game, they don't see how no lynches help them more, reason being no lynches allow mafia to preserve conflict between players, which in turn is the cover mafia use to survive. Everyone think about this, lets say yesterday me ech steve maybe janaan or alderaan along with matt pull our votes, would we have been able to rally another lynch? Probably not, it wouldn't have happened and we would still have the problem of dyh and sloosh. Today we have eliminated a major conflict that has shaped this game, the fog is clearing and now the mafia are panicking. Zell I'm still waiting on your response. Sloosh what do you think of my case on Hawk? I would consider switching to Zell just because zell still has some fight in him whereas hawk is just laying down waiting to die. For me the choice boils down to this: On the one hand I am sure hawk is mafia but isn't a huge threat, on the other HAND I am sure that if Zell is mafia he poses a larger threat than hawk but isnt as 100 percent scum. Oh on a side note I am suspicius of anyone who accuses MITCH because at this point that is an easy get me out of trouble accusation, mafia are better off just calling him an asshole or an idiot(valid accusation btw) MITCH is playing too risky and reckless, he's attacked pretty much everyone and hasn't been shy about it . He's so frustrating that I wouldnt be surprised if he turned up dead tonight, though I doubt it, he alone isn't a threat to the mafia, its when someone like sloosh backs him up that he becomes dangerous. Leaning town. | ||
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Gentleman, there are now only 12 of us, 4 of which are mafia, look at the nerd to your left, and look at the dweeb to your right, one of them.............................................................................................................................................. is SCUM. | ||
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On February 23 2012 03:28 Mattchew wrote: in a really really shitty wifom question do you think I will die tonight? gum and sloosh's answered prefered. I have a relatively big post I could make explaining my reads on everyone in the game but it would be kind of silly to post that if I were to survive Matt the only way you'll die tonight is if you continue pissing off the mafia(and us to a certain extent) so much that they're just like fuck it and murder you. Jokes aside I know its a fun question to ask but lets not do the mafias job for them k? They'll lynch whoever they lynch, well pick up the pieces. | ||
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On February 23 2012 03:54 Mattchew wrote: Yes but I want to know if I should post a "pre-death" post with thoughts and reads on everyone. Everyone should be doing that, post it 2-1 minute/s before the night ends so the mafia cant use it. | ||
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On February 23 2012 04:03 Mattchew wrote: i have to go to class... wont be till after night so i guess here it is I want the WIFOM the fuck outta the somewhat off-chance of scum killing me tonight so that all it shows is that I am confirmed town and that my intentions with the "ruckus" i have stirred up were actually pro-town. These are the remaining players. Remember there are 4 mafia in there. As much as you may want to believe otherwise. Also remember that unless we have a doc or some type of blocking role, there will be 1 less town come voting time tomorrow meaning that of the 11 remaining scum will control 4 votes and town will control 7. This also means if we mis-lynch and we don't have a protecting role, it becomes 5 town to 4 scum the next day. 1. gumshoe 2. rgTheSchworz 3. Alderan 4. EchelonTee 5. Mattchew 6. Steveling 7. trackd00r 8. MidnightGladius 9. slOosh 10. Janaan 11. TKHawkins 12. zelblade First and foremost IMO these players are confirmed town in my eyes. Listen to them in times of confusion. Alderan - There is no way he would bus or bring to light that many scum with him also bringing up the first night's last hour switch. He puts a focus on a very scummy event and with no real cases anywhere to be found he brings up a lot of good discussion points with his posts Sloosh - he tunneled DYH based on meta and his own case. He blindly stuck by this and I realize that I could have his latest posts have proven him a valuable asset to town. He also could die tonight. Remember to read nothing into it other than it confirms him as town and having the right intentions with his posts. These are my town reads meaning that these players are most likely town but Gumshoe - Personally I hate the length of your posts. You sometimes use 300 words to say 5. That being said you have been completely transparent this entire game, too much to be scum IMO. EchelonTee - started off aggressive and pressuring. I like it. He posts don't have any hint of heavy scum-like over thinking to them (meaning scum tend to look at their posts over and over again to make sure they aren't scummy). He also was the first to vote MG and one of the first to point suspicion of Dimmu. Scum usually hops on bandwagons and doesn't usually start them especially early in the game at any level. There is the slightest bit of doubt from me which is why he isn't in the confirmed town list. Steveling - Didn't vote Dimmu day 1 which is a bit WIFOM but also logically not scummy. He posts a pretty big case on gum and then another on tkhawk. He likes my case a lot which has kind of blinded me to reading him for real. I would value someone else's opinion on him more than my own, however for me he reads town. My leaning town but if any of my scum reads are wrong pick. Janaan - Seems extremely wishy washy but this is a newbie game. This could be him not being confident in his decisions but is someone to keep an eye on My Scum Reads Click Me Click Me I think that people are starting to see more of the light in this post. It isn't meant to be the holy grail but it has focused a lot of people to make more cases and produce more content. So far all it is done has re-affirmed my believes in these 4 being the scum team. Just for you matt I'm gonna make all my posts EXACTLY 300 words from now on. I encourage anyone else who makes a list like this to post it shortly before the night ends. Cases are preferred though. | ||
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On February 23 2012 01:23 trackd00r wrote: Ok. I woke up in a better mood now. More relaxed. Sloosh, what do you think about our mislynch? You seemed to be so confident about lynching DYH. Do you have any thoughts regarding that? What about Alderan's case? Do you still support it after DYH flipped green? I'm wondering what will happen to Hawk. Is he leaving? If that's the case, I'll wait for the replacement to post before I cast any votes. Ok, I saw this exact same thing out of Zell, track I am this close to disregarding every single thing that comes out of your mouth, LOOK AT MY CASE ON HAWK, if you want to defend hawk in any way address it head on, don't skirt around it just because hawk said he's leaving, my case does not hinge on hawk leaving, though that is actually a pretty helpful piece of rage quit that suggests the accusations against him may have been too much for him to handle. Also if hawk is not on the menu then how about zell? What do you think of him? | ||
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On February 23 2012 05:45 trackd00r wrote: Uh, I think I didn't express myself correctly with that post What I said is to wait if someone was going to replace him. If not, it would have been the removal of one player, since there are not any back up as I looked OP. In that case, it would be no point of voting for him I will vote for him he is goes on. Here is why. I just don't feel like exhausting the case any further. At the rate we are going, he will be lynched next day. But I insist that TK is probably being manipulated by his team mates by the way he is playing. This means that there has to be any kind of mastermind trying to direct his actions, like for example MidnightGladius. I've re-read DYH case on him and then looked at your defense to Matt, and I think things are making more sense now. I'll post my thoughts about MG in a while. As for zelblade, I can't get a good read of him. Checking his filter. Even though, Mattchew reads town for me. My disapproval to his earlier posts was mostly because the way he presented the case and made it's presence. Now that I'm more calm, I actually see a very good guess he is making. Maybe perhaps there is more than a reason that TK is RQing. I agree with his town reads, and I'm happy with the fact that he is constantly pushing his cases. If this continues, he can easily control the flow of the thread and can leave the mafia exposed. You didn't, at all, the reasons you have stated here are much much better, we intend to lynch the suspect that is the biggest threat, right now thats zell, hawk as you said is pretty much gone and as for mg? Mg doesn't give a shit he sounds pretty goddamn defeated, let him lay down and die, zells not going out without a fight and I appreciate that, so well probably reward him with tomorrows lynch I guess, unless anyone can point out a suspect whose more of a threat. Oh and can you at least read my hawk case? Its pretty entertaining | ||
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On February 23 2012 06:49 Mattchew wrote: 10 minute break from class. Wanted to comment on a couple things before night hits (which I will not be around at the deadline as of now) 1. I left rgTheSchworz off my list accidentally. He belongs with Janaan in the Null/least town read section. He's smart and should be able to contribute more. His reason for voting DYH seemed like he hadn't read the thread and with his late entrance and Gum's gazillion word posts I don't blame him. If someone on my list doesn't turn up to be scum and he's still not productive he should be looked at very very carefully. This means that of those 6 I firmly believe the entire scum team is there. With the possibility of there being no medic or vig, I think we have 2 mis-lynches so we should be able to lynch all 6 before the game is through. 2. I think that this is a bad policy. If I survive and you(talking to everyone) think I (or anyone else for that matter) am scum please speak up. I think that I have shown that I will not mis-judge you because of your beliefs. Remember I am in this game too meaning that I am a newbie as well. I am just confident with my reads based on reading a lot of other games and playing in a couple others. I am active in a ton of obs threads of games I am not in as well. 3. As Gum said, everyone thinking that they may die tonight should be doing everything in their power to give out as much information for town to work with as possible. The more information we have from confirmed town the better chance we have at winning this game. 4. Finally, werewolves has ended and someone (sorry I am rushed and forget who) brought up my meta being similar to that game. I was scum in that game, however there were 2 scum teams, so I actually ended up playing the best "townie" game I have ever played because I was actually hunting the other scum team. So yes my meta is the same but that should also indicate that I AM actually hunting scum as I was in that game. Also, that was a pm, 2 scum team game, you cant make that great of a correlation to this normal game. I was referring to accusing you at this moment -_-. As the game currently stands an attack on you would be obvious omgbus, I will change this policy if a major shift happens but if right now someone calls matts chainsaw attack ridicules, tries to refute it and proposes that we have to lynch matt tomorrow than you'll have to forgive me for being suspicious. Also it only really applies to the people I don't trust. Oh and just pretend I added a couple hundred more words k MITCH? | ||
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On February 23 2012 06:49 Steveling wrote: Woah nice find. How did I miss it in my case on him, T_T. Well with all these new elements his case is now stronger even than Hawkings' lol. Yup, there is almost no doubt in my mind that zell trap and hawk are scum, the person we lynch should be the one who puts is putting up the biggest fight, in this case thats zell. Track is now forsaking parts of his team, if you think that makes him dangerous I will lend him my vote. Yet I would like to lynch either hawk or zell because track hasnt really been doing much with his posts, just trys to look as if he's contributing, but zell and hawk have actively tried to sow dissent and cover for mg, so if we lynch one of them it all will but assure that mg is mafia and so is the other we don't lynch. Since it pretty much in line with what everyone else I've read here ill post my reads in order of confidence. certainly -Town Sloosh (put himself out their too early, also his conflict with ech was attacked by pretty much confirmed mafia so I'm pretty sure both him and ech are town) Ech (too aggressive, fights too hard to survive to be scum, obviously because he knows he's right about himself) Mattchew (too hostile while still trying to be friends with townies, scum tend to just be hostile if active and too nice if lurking, too rash but useful to be scum, may have won us the game for which he deserves credit, probably a fine strapping young chap who inspires confidence in all he meets. ) steveling: I am almost sure he's town just because I almost know mitch's case has at least two scum on it and steveling backed him up right away, why would he sell out his team so quickly? Doesn't add up, he's probably town.) null Janaan (not too sure about) Showrtz(hasnt posted) Alderaan(I am the least sure of Alderaan, ill scout his filter) scum Hawk-(early signs indicate that he was trying to condemn active play, sow dissent, cause a mislynch/no lynch and he has no interest in improving his relation with town which means he's just trying to cruise, his suspicion of janaan all but clears janaan if he flips red) Zell ( his goals have consistentley been in line with town, and he just so happens to be the number one omgbus player this game, check his filter, his accusations are ridicules, it sounds like hes trying to throw as much shit(excuse my quebec) at the wall just to see what sticks, which isn't town behaviour) Mg (have no intention of seeing him lynched for a while that said I am almost sure he is scum, zell and hawks deaths will indite him beyond a shadow of a doubt, also interesting that he said he'd deal with the problem of bieng accused by both dead townies when he gets there, well he's there and he seems pretty content to just bitch and moan,) Trak( desperate scum, wouldn't be too worried about him, watch out for him trying to accuse alderaan though, he is gonna try from now on to distance himself from zell mg and hawk while trying to swap himself with janaan schorz and alderaan, which may be the case, so don't be too hard him, he may be telling the truth. He may also start acting like dyh did come lynch time, just to make us doubt ourselves.) Oh and last thing suspect Gumshoe: Seriously how has this guy not been accused of being scum(except by Qatol) in the last 5 pages? Going to walk the dog. See you come the night post. | ||
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If you are gonna go all DYH on me too, I don't know what else to say. I will be the first to admit that I was sure that lynching DYH ,even though I pretty much knew he was town, was the right choice, why? Because it eliminates conflict, without DYH we clear the air. Now I realize the trap, DYH's loss was a sacrifice, one we could only make once, from now on we should be wary of players who evoke his name and make similar death plights, that draw our thoughts back to that initial doubt, as a result I ask that those confronted address the issues against them rationally without trying to rely on sympathy. the other thing?, we just witnessed the most fundamental chainsaw weakness, we all knew that it was unlikely that everyone on matt's list was scum, that was too easy, but two of them at least most certainly are. Lets not get distracted from our primary cases, we lynch hawk tomorrow, also now that we know janaan is innocent hawks tunnel on him is all the more suspicious, also I have a feeling the mafia are fucking with us by lynching janaan, they taunt us by pretty much saying "go ahead lynch hawk! Had to be him or janaan right? hahahah" I'm not buying it, we stay the course, we lynch hawk tomorrow and take it from there. Note I will not lynch another player in his place without being given an incredibly strong case as to why this other player is a better lynch and is more of a threat. If you suspect someone you previously trusted, ask them questions and if your 100 percent sure build a detailed case against them, otherwise idle accusations serve us no purpose. I'm talking to you sloosh, please just try talking to steve, stve please try answering all of sloosh's questions. Once again I reafirm Hawk is our strongest case, right now we need a sure thing, we cant get distracted. I told you guys wed have to pick up the pieces didnt I? Another thing, scum are more likely to slip up in a comfortable atmosphere Lets make things a bit more easygoing k? Zell I invite you back to help us out and prove your case, alderaan we really need to start hearing your thoughts. Track please tell us what you think of Steveling, From now on we don't accuse anyone unless were damm sure they're mafia and the only person I am damn sure is scum is hawk, if your suspicious ASK QUESTIONS if your sure, post a detailed case going through the majority of their posts. And no more chainsaw attacks, you can point out collaborative effort if it helps your case but a chainsaw is just begging to be torn apart like matt's was. Remember if people are mafia they will damn themselves, we lynch hawk. This isn't staying the course, this is a natural response to a powerful case that hasn't been refuted by anyone. Sloosh can I please get your comments on my case? + Show Spoiler + Hawk needs to be lynched next. His posts reek of trying to create conflict. Remember his early reads? Look at the people he called suspicius. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler +. He is focusing suspicion on the four players who are most active and most constructive at this point in the game. His reasonings? Sloosh:Too defensive,Ech: to offensive,DYH: jumps on mistakes (can easily just be seen pressure at this stage in the game) Jaj:Shouldve pressured someone else basically he calls all these players suspicious for active behaviour. What really gets me is that he is accusing jaj of flashy play when jaj really isn't that bad at this point in time and his accusation of Mg was just because he felt the game was stagnating and Mg was playing too safe, also Jaj was detective so your point about him supporting flashy players because he's flashy is mute on two accounts, 1) of the four people you called suspicius Jaj is the least flashy, and 2) it was just a false accusation. What is interesting though is your assault against jaj convinientley defending flashy players convinientley backs up your implicit argument against flashy players. Hawk is trying to cause conflict here and plant the seed of suspiciun against active players which is horrible, because if your suspiciuns are founded on whose playing flashy/active, than that means in your eyes players who continue to contribute condemn themselves more and more. If this is your stance as a town player you need to drop it right now because it's poison, but I don't think you have to worry about that because I am almost sure you are mafia. I still stand by my suspicions of players who supported me early on purely because a) there is no risk involved in backing me up if they know I'm town and b) the move provides easy credibility if I am lynched. your whole post begins with me. + Show Spoiler + 1) I didn't suspect gladius for the set up, I suspected gladius because he made really safe bets and was active in the thread but didn't see the need to take any risks like several other players did. You also didn't even post the second part of my anylysis which was just a few posts down + Show Spoiler + This is very relevant information, in fact I consider it far more useful analysis than the comments on setup. You don't even mention how I pointed out that behaviour, you subtract everything except my comment on setup. I feel like you are actually playing down my suspicions and reducing them to just the comment on setup, which the following person would later say isn't really condemming: + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + In all three of these he admits there is reason to suspect Mg, but those reasons never seem to make him suspect Mg, in fact next time his comments on Mg the scum slip vanishes and is replaced with + Show Spoiler + Notice how he keeps re-mentioning the setup? Thats because the setup argument isnt that strong alone, yet Zell continuously seems to suggest our strongest argument against Mg is the setup which really is'nt the case, our argument against mg is that he plays too soft and only attacks as he said easy targets and those who attack him. This looks like teamwork. Hawk plays down my analysis of Mg and reduces it to me accusing Mg of commenting on the setup and Zell repeatedly mentions how this setup argument is'nt a valid basis for accusing Mg. Also what the hell is this? + Show Spoiler + how is this behaviour helpful to town? Also Mg has played like 1 or two games and you want to exonorate him because in his first or second game his play style was unhelpful? Cmon man, you cant be that blind. Dont worry though Zell when lynch him Mg we promise not even to bring up the setup kk? ok that said I am making a case for Hawk not Mg or Zell, one scum at a time right? Now moving onto the rest of that post regarding me! + Show Spoiler + Notice how he tries to discredit me further? He says I'm scrambling to stay alive, he makes me sound like someone desperate, someone willing to say anything to live, someone you shouldn't even remotely trust a word out of because they're not in their right mind, you know who sounds like that? Scum under pressure, yet whats his next line? not scum. He says it with such authority, much better players than hawk in this game are far less convinced that I'm town, but listen to that confidence. Not scum he says bah. Hawk accomplishes three things with this post. 1)He makes me out to be out to be witless, which suggests that he's encouraging people people not to listen to what I've said so far, in other words don't listen to my accusation of Mg. 2)He protects himself in case I'm lynched and flip green. 3)Downplays the arguments against Mg that I made by just saying its suspicious how mg comments on setup, which sets up players like Zell to continuously mention how baseless the setup accusation is in his future defences of Mg. His assurance that I'm town lays the boundaries for his next few accusations. + Show Spoiler + Pounces on steveling for a newbie mistake, then accuses him of suspecting me. He does a similar thing with DYH if you read back on why he's suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + makes himself out to be better than another player because hes less apologetic, oh hawk, you are aware that players are a bit nervous their first time right? Why you see the need to separate yourself from typically nervous new players is very interesting. Mitch has also pointed out the several positive/null reads on zell mg and track so look back at that if you want. Heres a nice jem that comes up. in regard to Ech + Show Spoiler + Contradiction. earlier you say: + Show Spoiler + now here comes the biggest reason we should suspect Hawk which is also the most obvius. + Show Spoiler + Provides the killing blow against dimm, this is suspicius within itself, but read what he says next. + Show Spoiler + Da fuck? Why you would leave just before you find out if the guy you just killed, is scum or not? You are more invested than ANYONE in this result because YOU ARE THE REASON DIMM DIED! Yet you dont wait 6 seconds to find out the result? Why else would you not wait unless you already knew the outcome? CAN I GET A PRAISE SCUMSLIP!!!!!!! When he comes back ages later? + Show Spoiler + He comes back and doesn't even comment on the fact that he caused a misslnch? First time townie my ass, if he was town he would be apologizing to oblivion for causing a mislynch, instead though he attacks Janaan! A player who hasn't even seemed remotley scummy up to this point. No one has accused Janaan exept me and that was my nightmare post, Hawk is using this useless tunnel on janaan to avoid commenting on the major cases at play. His tunnel on Janaan is founded in part on Janaan being suspicious of ME, again how is hawk so confident I'm town? Hes not even considering me as mafia, why? Because he know im not. Heres my favourite high light of his post + Show Spoiler + Umm you know who else does that...? + Show Spoiler + You are putting suspicion on Janaan for not having a read on Mg which is something I would say you are notorious for. You are clearing yourself of suspiciun for a crime by showing how guilty someone else is for that exact same crime. Fun fact: it is eons before you answer for the mislynch. Oh here another defence of mg post in the meantime. + Show Spoiler + He defends Mg by casting doubt on mg's accuser. Hello indirect support! Hello scum 101! + Show Spoiler + I hate it when players try to shut down conversation, this is exactly what Hawk is doing here. He also makes another attempt to discredit me without accusing me. Yet thats not the gem of this post, look at the bolded part. Look, a townie's biggest job, the job that is the hardest and burdens them all throughout the game, is the job of convincing others that they are worth listening to. Hawk does not do this. He makes no attempt to contribute in a positive way, he is very hostile and the only person he doesn't seem to really suspect... is me. Hawk is not trying to convince us to trust him. He is trying to make himself distant. By saying I follow my own reads he is essentially saying I trust myself and no one else. Which is a horrible thing to say for a town whose job it is to convince OTHER towns.There is no humanity in his posts, he is beyond cold. This bolded part suggests that when day three roles around he will bust open a huge case and expose all the mafia. Which isnt going to happen because in scenario a) he is town and no one listens to him because he comes off as hostile and suspicious and in scenario b) he is mafia and he is trying to make his opinions as useless as possible(just like he's trying to make mine.) without seeming blatantly suspicious. Please someone tell I am wrong on all these accounts. Tell me how Hawk wasn't the reason a townie died. Tell me why he is actively trying to seem so hostile to the point that we will never listen to him. Tell me how his tunnel on Janaan is useful. Tell me how he's so sure that I am town. But most of all please tell me a story about why this man is not mafia. So that I can tell you a story about why you are. ##vote TKHawkins I stand by one lynch at a time, this is the lynch. This is the start of our victory. "Every worthwhile accomplishment, big or little, has its stages of drudgery and triumph; a beginning, a struggle and a victory." | ||
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On February 23 2012 13:47 slOosh wrote: @gumshoe: Read over your case, and I don't like it. You are going in with the assumption that he is mafia and interpreting everything according to that. Hawk wasn't the reason that DimmuKlok was lynched. We all wanted to avoid a no-lynch. Sure he fumbled with the votes, but its a newbie game. He came from scII land and he genuinely might not know how to vote, seeing as its his first time. Your perceived hostility of him is actually his response to Mattchew's antagonistic style. I know how mad I can get when people treat my posts condescendingly and calls them "retarded". Now, this is my second game playing, and I understand that there is an element of role playing. I can see him genuinely hurt from Matt's verbal assault - he doesn't have that tought exterior we develop playing mafia. His FOS on Janaan was wrong, but that doesn't make him scum. The reasoning he provides for suspecting Janaan is understandable. He is clear. You might not like his logic but it isn't contradictory. I can't tell you why he thinks you are town. He has to answer for himself. I'm keeping my vote on Steveling till I hear his response. Call it a gut feel but something doesn't stick right with me in his actions post night 2. However, I want more information before I can consolidate anything - offering half complete cases will just get shot down fast and coming back with a reformed case just doesn't hold that much weight. More specifically: Zelblade, Alderan , rgTheSchworz - please come in and post. How about how he leaves for food just before the night post? Or how he tries crumbing suspicion on all the active players in the game? Or how he tried to actually pass his own crimes off on janaan? Or how he showed no interest in building reputation with town? I follow my own reads? So post your own reads and then in that case why did he vote for DYH saying he's just our best option because of a scum slip no one else has put much stock into? Or how he contradicts himself regarding ech being on his radar? The only thing not scummy about him was that he was null on mg, perhaps cause he didn't want to attract attention? Cmon man he never even addressed the mslynch until he was blamed for it and then responded hostilely. If you think theres a better pick k but don't tell me that this guy doesn't give you scummy vibes. | ||
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On February 23 2012 22:18 Mattchew wrote: i fucking hate to do this... but zelblade actually makes the best case. Trackd00r has been playing "nice" scum the entire game, not stepping on any toes while literally doing next to nothing the entire game. Gum, I have other reasons that I will discuss in about 12 hours why I am not voting hawk. For now know that I do not disagree with you in the slightest. One just shows the status you the other shows echs opinions, your liable to be held accountable for opinions, cant be though for lists which makes them fishy, they don't seem too similar ) : | ||
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##unvote TkHawkins | ||
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On February 24 2012 03:12 Mattchew wrote: I mean its just formatted differently.. Bromancipate puts that his reads are on SS in that past game... plus theres no more accountability in this game... if scum get a mislynch they win so it doesnt matter how wrong they are True, Im rereading the game from start to finish right now, seeing if I can get a feel with a clear head, putting my vote on trak ##Vote: trackd00r | ||
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On February 24 2012 03:45 EchelonTee wrote: Probulous posted the list in that game and didn't really comment on it. I posted my list and put some words on it. The reason I posted the list is because this game became a clusterfuck after last night's flip. This day is pretty weird. I can't help but feel that we are being played. I see two possible scenarios that we are in: 1. Mattchew is town - 2 or 3 of the remaining people from his original list are scum. People's reactions to him are largely due to their fear that Mattchew has exposed them. DYH seemed to indicate that he largely agreed with Mattchew. 2. Mattchew is scum - In this case, the team would likely be something like Mattchew, Blae/rG, Alderan, Steveling. The only reason why I think this could be the case is because something just feels fishy as hell. It might be dumb to consider these gut instincts at MYLO, but I can't shake the feeling that this game is heading towards complacency. When scum have a stranglehold over town activity, this sort of lackadaisical feeling takes hold, as it has done now. Mattchew's flashy post does remind me of TL L, but I don't know. I don't want to think Mattchew is scum, but there's just something unsettling. If MG had flipped red I wouldn't have any qualms. All the players in the game currently are pushing towards "lynch TKHawkins and trackd00r. not TK i guess since he might be modkilled but definitely trackd00r. and don't worry that nearly everyone wants trackd00r dead, Mafia is probably busing". Because that worked so well concerning the DYH lynch huh. I feel that trackd00r is the wrong play. ...Honestly I think I want to lynch Steveling. His response to mattchew's post (regardless of Mattchew's alignment) was strange; he was all like "SHIT WE WON THE GAME WITH THIS GAIZ", which was pretty contrary to how the general town felt towards it. His D1 was not good (advocate no lynch, initial post is a Lol@gumshoe). I feel that all game he has only put down reads after suspicion was pretty well established. And no one has really addressed Steveling all game. I feel like he has slipped by unnoticed while having an apperance of contribution. ##Vote: Steveling I agree mg was the heart of Matt's accusation, but keep in mind that scum probably aren't clumped up, they're most likely spread out between your two scenarios, thats why despite this dire circumstance I still advocate one lynch at a time, because trying to find all the answers right now is a bad move. it makes sense for the mafia to buss one of their own if they're standing on both sides, having thought about I would like to see what happens with hawk before I switch my vote of track. Can someone ask the host about that? I don't know how to highlight my text green. | ||
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On February 24 2012 04:09 GreYMisT wrote: The Hawk situation is currently being addressed. thank you. | ||
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On February 24 2012 04:26 Mattchew wrote: no. and if you push this i will push your lynch Calm down buddy, schorz has not posted at all, he may be our best choice. My vote is still on track though till the steve case develops a bit more. | ||
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Matt steveling ech? Like why? Why are you trying to evoke that kind of paranoia at this stage in the game? THIS IS THE LAST THING WE NEED. Track Alderaan schowrz? thats over half the people still in this game. Someone please please please give me a really strong case so that I don't feel guilty when I lend my vote to a mislynch, kay? Note: This defeatist attitude is brought to you by yesterdays mind fuck and Matt's absurd accusation. Oh and on the severe off chance that either sloosh or ech are scum, thanks to you guys for teaching me to never trust anyone ever again. Btw heres a converstation between schowrz and hawk for your viewing pleasure! "dude are they seriously not voting for us?" "told you man, just don't post, they'll kill each other" "oh boy, townies really are dumb eh?" "they sure are schworz old buddy, they sure are" One last thing so I don't waste a post, Despite what GMarshal's fantastic writing would have us believe mg's death was never part of the mafias plan, they wanted mg to stay in the game as long as possible, Janaan actually did us a favour, he sets us off the wrong track, now we just need to ask ourselves, who laid the track? Who was invested in having mg and three other players stay alive until they could be mislynched? The accusation against ech is a stretch, but the one against matt, well, perhaps it warrants a closer look. | ||
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On February 24 2012 08:27 Mattchew wrote: Why it is reasonable to vote for Mattchew (me) 1. I have been overly aggressive and spammy 2. I have created chaos in a town setting that needed focus 3. My reads were wrong and are constantly changing 4. I have had a lot of contradicting reads and actions in this game 5. I shut up MG and TK which is where pressure becomes too much pressure 6. My big 4 scum post was bad. The case was not strong especially in a newbie game where everyone is easy to pick on. I have let scum dictate my play, regardless of who the scum team ends up being, they have had a serious negative impact on my reads and overall play. Well WTF have you been doing? Good Question. What most of you don't know (I tried to breadcrumb it through my posts about gumshoe), I have never fully read the thread. I skimmed up until I joined, and then barely followed along until after jaj was shot. This lead me to realize that I probably wasn't going to be making any good cases. I tried to sheep sloosh cause I knew he was good town in the game before. Then I noticed the vote switch. In my first game ever (I was scum) we organized a HUGE ass vote switch last minute. The dimmu lynch brought back these memories, and then seeing exactly 4 people had switched from ET to Dimmu, I thought it almost as a sign from God or something. I followed up on those 4 by reading their filters. I remember (I think it was Adam497 or w.e) saying that he had realized post game that he should have known who was scum because of their refusal to heavily interact with one another. When I saw the minimal (and yes there was a lot of scummy) interactions with these 4, I was ready to be the hero. I then realized that Sloosh was getting his way this game. I did actually read and think his and ET's case was bad on DYH. So finally after realizing that I was not town's hero I went back and re-read the thread. This is why I am fumbling around changing my reads every 3 seconds in a time where we need focus the most. I am playing like shit. For that I honestly have to apologize to town and everyone playing this game. A lot of you called me on my shit play but I was too arrogant to listen. So what Mattchew? You're right this post reeks of scum as well. I know its a little overreaction based on only getting 2 votes but with scum team having 4 votes and me being town I realize that 1 townie vote on me could lead to inevitable death and loss. I've read this far, your post sounds terrible but maybe its honest, anything else I have to say don't lynch me because thats my win condition and I have to play to it. Don't give me sympathy for this post and you should still hammer on me to play better. If I survive and we do lynch scum I will do my best to provide better reads. Matt do you wanna know what itll take for me not to lynch you? I wanna see hawk get modkilled, and flip scum, thats all im asking for, someone give me that and I will stand by you to the bitter mylo. | ||
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ok fine, then I'm not gonna vote for matt cause I don't think he's scum(cant blame me for pulling an Illidan though) if any one wants to know why then just ask me, I'm done making long posts if I don't have too / : | ||
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I dont thing I'm gonna end up voting for track just because I feel like hes getting bussed, didn't like how steveling said we were all going dyh on him, did not sound like something a town who knows he's town would say, sounds more like something scum would say to make us doubt ourselves and if there was ever a time for a scum to play the DYH card, that was it. I am willing to lynch steveling just because I feel like he was trying to say the thing that would make us doubt ourselves as opposed to trying to fight for his innocence. That said sloosh's case against him is weak, I am for lynching him more so because of his response, why cant we lynch a lurker again? | ||
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schorz and hawk at the moment are null votes, meaning they just sit there, right now we need a six vote advantage to win, so if there are 10 players, 6 town and 4 mafia, and two town aren't voting what does that bring us to? 4/4 and theres no more vig, we may already be in lylo and not even know it, (ironicaly I Thought everyone knew this :/ loooooool) thats why I was so desperate to hear about hawk, the reason I don't think were in lylo is because the Hosts don't seem like the kinda guys that would let us just hopelessly squirm at this critical point in the game because two townies decided to just sit there, (that said it also seems way too late in to the game to introduce replacements but I dont know about that). Which leads my optimistic side to believe two things, that the reason they are not intervening is because either hawk or schorz or both are scum and we not only have a chance but an advantage (because two of the mafias are absent) and we have at least a 50-100 percent chance to lynch scum if we vote for one or the other. Than again this assessment is not only Wifom, its wifom established on the grounds that the impartial mediators would not let one side suffer,( which is beyond wifom it is mega god wifom), regardless if the hosts do not intervene today, and both schworz and hawk are town, then there is no way we can win this vote. In fact come to think of it we are now at that point in the game were every single town has to vote if we want a majority, so if either schorz or hawk are town (not even both), we are already in lylo. We need 6 votes, their are six town players and if even 1 player is town but absent we cannot lynch scum. The only vote were securing today as things stand is a mislynch, unless both schorz and hawk are scum in which case we should vote for one of them because it is the surest thing we have. Tomorrow though if we opt to no lynch we might get a replacement for hawk or schorz (or both) and if that/those replacement/s is/are town we might be able to stage a comeback. Yet as things stand the only favourable outcome for town is a no lynch or if your feeling the wifome a hawk/schworz lynch. (Oh another thing I just realized, if you are voting for a town player there should be no way you can secure that lynch without mafia assistance because you are losing that town players vote and as I said we need every single town vote.) | ||
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what do we loss if we mislynch hawk? We lose an angry ex poster, and once again a potential replacement. Also none of this replacement business is probably going to be solved before todays vote, which means the only way we can secure a lynch against mafia is if both hawk and schorz are mafia, which would also mean that the only players really bussing hawk or schworz are town because I doubt only two active mafia would have much power in that regard. It's either that or we no lynch in my opinion, which still gives us hope tomorrow if we get a replacement, also if either hawk or schorz are town you wont have to worry about lynching anyone else, because regardless of who your accused is, be it matt or ech or track or whoever you think are mafia, you wont be able to lynch them without mafias help. tldr, only way I see us winning this game is if both hawk and schorz are mafia and we vote for one of them or we no lynch and hope for replacements. | ||
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On February 24 2012 23:09 GMarshal wrote: Anyone who hasn't voted at the end of this cycle (and for which we have been unable to find a replacement) will be modkilled Now we wait and see. Oh do I have to vote right now or die? | ||
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a) both schorz and hawk are mafia and we lynched a mafia: This is the best scenario but by far the riskiest, the odds of both schorz and hawk being mafia aren't great, and even then we have to just hope that the guy we lynch is 100 percent mafia, we lose one townie the next day bringing us to... Town 5 mafia 1 b) Both schorz and hawk are mafia and we no lynched: Still pretty good, no lynch is actually what I'm leaning towards because it allows us to survive in the most scenarios, we lose a townie at night bringing us to... Town 5 mafia 2 c)Both schorz and hawk are mafia and we mislynch: Still not that bad, but only an option if your sure schworz and hawk arent town: We lose one at night bringing us to 4 town 2 mafia d)Schorz is mafia and hawk is town or vice versa and we lynch mafia: not really possible unless the mafia turn against eachother. More likely we no lynch or mislynch E) schorz is mafia and hawk is town or vice versa and we no lynch: Pretty much the only way to salvage this scenario brings us to 4 town three mafia F) schorz is mafia and hawk is town or vice versa and we mislynch: GG G) Both schworz and hawk are town: ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg H) Scwhorz and hawk return and have found all the answers: Praise Cuthulu. As you guys can see a no lynch in all these scenarios (unless hawk and shcwhorz are town (in which case gg) or they've been hiding underground all this time so that they could build us a new detective and viglante) is the option that is most likely to keep us alive, in fact a successful mafia lynch is only possible if both schorz and hawk are mafia, is anyone absolutely sure of that? You will have to prove both their guilt to me before I am even willing to consider a lynch. ##Vote: No Lynch | ||
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On February 25 2012 01:04 Mattchew wrote: so heres my train of thought.. there is no way sloosh and ech are this unintelligent... they are pushing a "case" on me because I think ech is scum and I didn't vote the same way as sloosh. Sloosh has been doing this all game. At first I thought it was just tunneling but now i realize that it has gone too far. to write an entire case about me centered around me making reads and believing in them is terrible. I wrote a 10x better case on myself and I know that I'm not scum. Gum I completely understand why you want to vote in hawk or schworz but here's why i disagree with you. a. they might be mod-killed which would make our voting mean nothing b. even if they are 1 scum or 2 scum we still have to take a large risk on voting someone to win this game. Personally, I believe we should take that risk now so as not to waste our time 3 days from now when we are in the same exact situation with no one budging on their beliefs. ##vote EchelonTee Matt I dont care about your case or slooshes, we are one mislynch away from lylo, hell we could already be in lylo , please consider my next post and my motion for a no lynch. | ||
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On February 25 2012 01:29 Mattchew wrote: yeah i was gonna post about a no lynch, you also have to remember that even if they are both mafia and we no-lynch scum still gets a kill.. so you gotta subtract 1 town from your list and we are right back where we are today, tomorrow I already do that. | ||
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On February 25 2012 01:35 Steveling wrote: Your suggestion is bad gum, cause we are already in mylo. So if we don't lynch we will be down to 8 dudes. Best case scenario both lynched guys are scum. We will lose 1 more in the coming night, so we'll be down to 7 with 2 scum. Hard but doable from that position for town. Worse scenario both lynched guys are town. We lose. Most expected scenario, it's one and one for scum and town. We are down to 8 dudes, 7 with next nights kill. Takes 4 to lynch, with 3 scum, it will be nearly impossible for us to unite our votes. What I wanna say is we are in the exact same situation as today. Listen, if one of them is town and one is scum WE CAN NOT SECURE A VOTE AGAINST MAFIA because we are 5 town, not 6. The only case its safe to lynch is if both are scum, so prove to me that hawk or schworz are scum and I will gladly lend my vote to whoever. | ||
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One more scenario, we all choose not to vote, schorz or hawk or both pop up just before the deadline and vote confirming themselves as scum and saving thier own skins for a short while, we lose a townie tonight, we are 5 4 and we have no hesitation whats so ever in lynching hawk or schworz, lastly I really don't mind being in this situation tomorrow because one way or another we really wont have to worry about these wild cards. No lynch is our safest option, our worst option is just leaving 4 votes on someone, which is like asking schorz or hawk or both to jump in and cut off their neck, in which case gg we lose. | ||
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Oh sloosh etch, just in case theres any doubt in your mind as to matt bieng mafia, you should probably be aware that if your two votes stay on him than mafia can jump on board last second and win the game. That goes for trak as well. | ||
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On February 25 2012 02:39 Mattchew wrote: i guess im just assuming the worst that they are not both scum... Either way is a risk.. you want to risk them being mod-killed as scum or do you wanna risk lynching someone today if they are both not scum gg, we lose nothing we can do. Because if they do show up an hour before the deadline with a huge case against sloosh be sure I will make it my sole mission to see them lynched tommorow even if they do turn out to be green in only name, why would they be gone this long only to return later if they were town? More likely they are ragequit mafia or waiting to the last second to vote. So our options are either no lynch, or lynch one of them in case they are mafia and try to pop up a vote last second to stay in the game in which case they are mafia and we should be lynching them, furthermore our odds are great of hitting scum, 50-100 percent or we've already lost. This is our best option, now is not the time for case building it is the time for common sense. Unless marshal finds replacements which seems unlikely. | ||
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On February 25 2012 02:59 slOosh wrote: We are at 6 town, 4 scum. Right now we need 6 to lynch, which means we need all 6 townies. Mafia win if we mislynch here. It will be 5:4 and then one of us dies at night making it 4:4. Mafia win condition fulfilled. Mafia gain huge dividends by no lynch. While it does put us at 5:4 and gives us another day to talk, it also means mafia get one free kill. Additionally, an extra day of discussion is not worth an additional townie life, especially as it gives another day for mafia to clutter/ confuse the thread and there will be one less townie. Mafia are trying to stall and no lynch is basically setting us up for a loss. I've PMed GMarshal about the situation, as a similar thing arose in NMMIII where some inactives caused this kind of ruckus. It was resolved by reducing the required # to lynch to the majority of those voting. Here is the post. Hopefully we will hear good news and not have to resort to such risky lynching. As for who we should lynch: My point is that this is what scum look like. They give off the impression that they are helpful and active, but don't ever bother going the final step of taking the information and content in the thread and making a case to lynch mafia. I think EchelonTee makes a good point in noting how Mattchew's style of play has been with his suspicion on ET. It is weak and speculatory, inviting other people to look at him, but he doesn't vote for it himself until ET calls him out. Gumshoe, don't worry about the replacement scenario. If we were in an unwinnable situation, the hosts would have called it game by now. I am sure they are doing their best to resolve it and we should trust in them as they are the hosts. Now please turn your attention to the Mattchew case. You are a pivotal vote and you could determine fate of town. Thank you for confirming that the hosts would not leave us in an unwinable situation, that further solidifies my suspicion that both shworz and hawk are mafia, which is the only way we could successfully lynch a mafia today, that said if you think this is true than it is very possible that they are lurking waiting to vote at the last second. In which case we should vote for one of them As for a no lynch I agree with you, in most scenarios it is the wrong move because town ends up in the same situation with one less voter and the same problems, that is not the case here, as I have pointed out multiple times there is only one case scenario where we can successfully vote mafia and that is if both schorz and hawk are mafia, and if were sure they're mafia than we may as well vote for them in case they try just voting last second to stay in the game. If were not sure about them than the correct move is to not vote, because if even one of them is town than the only lynch we can accomplish is a mislynch. But tomorrow if a mafia and a town get modkilled and then one townie dies tonight, well be at 4 3. We can win in that scenario. waiting is the right move here, schorz and hawk will either reveal themselves last minute confirming their guilt or be modkilled. Either way by waiting something massive happens that confirms their guilt or inocence which isn't the case with your typical no lynch. Yes the mods could change something, but they are not going to for todays vote, so we have to fend for ourselves. I am not gonna play into the mafias hands, I am not voting in an environment this chaotic when we need only wait one more day for everything to become clearer. Sloosh please to listen to what I'm saying, a no lynch keeps us alive if hawk or schorz is town and the other is mafia while a successful lynch in that scenario is impossible and a lynch still leaves us in a great position if hawk and scwhorz is mafia. And if there both town? Than we shouldnt even be having this conversation. You say the mods will intervene, if they were going to intervene they would do so already, this is crunch time, I am going to gamble the game on the hosts wims. The most important point of all this I can possibly stress is that we can only lynch mafia if we are sure that hawk and schworz are scum, and if we are sure they're scum THEN WE LYNCH THEM. So that they cant pop up last second and sway the vote. Oh and there is one possible checkmate scenario Lets say we do have a one townie one scum turn out, if the townie doesn't speak up and the scum votes to stay in the game than well be at 4 4 tommorow, lylo WTF schorz you have a lot to answer for. | ||
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Oh and everyone pray that schorz is not mafia. | ||
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On February 25 2012 03:49 rgTheSchworz wrote: And I am scum purely because of lurking? Your logic seems off...... This is really the best chance I have to help town. And right now I d point my vote to zellblade. No schorz, sigh the point was that if either you or hawk or both were town we would be unable to lynch, we need all the town votes after all, now that you don't stand to be modkilled you have the power to vote and a no lynch is becoming not the greatest option. | ||
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On February 25 2012 04:27 Alderan wrote: I'm not sure, but I'm trying to play to not lose tonight. I think we approaching a consensus on a scum team based around Sloosh and ET. I feel the best option for us is the play that ensures the game is not over tonight. Vote hawk | ||
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On February 25 2012 04:39 Mattchew wrote: We need 6 to lynch it's majority and 5 is only half welcome to me 3 hours ago lynch hawk | ||
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following alliances Track-schorz(this happened fast) Sloosh- ech steveling- matt Now I know how excited you all are to reach for the stars but let me make one thing absolutely clear, if hawk is town and dosent post we lose the game, dont bilieve? Work it out, lets say we no lynch today which is the best thing we can hope for since we dont have enough town votes, hawk dies, we lose someone tonight, 4-4 welcome to lylo. Now what if hawk is scum? Lets say we no lynch, fine hawk either dies and flips red or shows up at the last second and secures his life and a town dies tonight than were 5-4 still ok and we can lynch hawk the next day Now what if lynch hawk today and we lose one? Than tommorow were 5 3 Basically the only way we can win this game as things stand is if hawk is scum, we cannot secure a lynch without all town votes so unless were sure hawk is scum then we should not lynch,but then if we are sure hawk is scum then we should lynch him because we know he is scum Also those claiming hawk is gonna be modkilled, schorz just demonstrated that hawk can come back last second and stay in the game. Our options as it stands are either assume hawk is town and lose or assume hawk is scum and ether kill hawk to make sure he doesn't jump back in last second or risk a vote that could be very well be a game ending mislynch. I think we can all agree that we do not want to consider this game lost, so please, lets make sure that hawk stays dead, a scum is a scum right? ##Unvote: No Lynch ##Vote: TKHawkins | ||
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Furthermore I do not want to rely on some bullshit host buff, we maybe noobs but we can win this game fairly or we can lose fairly. | ||
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On February 25 2012 05:38 Alderan wrote: It baffles me that of all people, it took gumshoe to be the one to think rationally about how we need to approach tonight... You and me both buddy. | ||
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On February 25 2012 05:35 EchelonTee wrote: gumshoe, rG, and trackd00r, I believe you all to be town. please vote mattchew. Ech the game can end right now just because townies decided that the most delicious thing in the world was each others throats, please vote for the guy we know is scum, if hawk is not scum than we've already lost and why would we still be in this game if we've already lost? | ||
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On February 25 2012 05:48 slOosh wrote: How can you guys even consider a possibility that both ET and I are scum? Mafia need one mislynch to seal the deal. Think about it: We were the ones originally strongly opposed to the TKHawkins and trackd00r lynch. If we were both scum and one of them town, it would have been done deal to lynch them as there support from Mattchew, Steveling, Alderan, gumshoe and zelblade. If we were all scum, then it could be seen trying to save our buddies. But then you have to be ready to accept that out of all the cases we could have pushed, we pushed Mattchew. There is absolutely no reason why scum team requiring one last mislynch would choose one of the least suspected people. Sloosh ignore them for a little while, talk to me, why is a bad idea to lynch the guy we know is scum? Why can we not vote for hawk and give ourselves sometime to work things out? If hes not scum than we cant have a majority, so WHY ARE WE STILL IN THIS GAME, thats because hawk is scum, and I don't want to risk him voting last second securing himself, oh and don't worry, I am not letting a mislynch happen today and even the worst case scenario where its a no lynch and hawk isnt modkilled is not as bad as the furious set of problems we currentley have. please vote hawk. We can survive provided we don't play right into the mafias hands and mislynch. | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 05:50 slOosh wrote: We won't be around because as soon as we mislynch tonight game over Scum win. Sigh, no sloosh, your wrong if we vote tk who we know is scum we can survive, after tonight well be 5 3 for town if we lynch hawk and hes scum(which he is). If we no lynch well be 5, 4 or 5 3 hopefully if hawk is scum and gets modkilled, once again I must say if hes town it dosent matter because weve already lost, and once again I must say that hawk is scum because as you said the host is not going to let us squirm if we have no chance of winning. As long as we dont lynch anyone who isnt hawk, there is no risk of losing this game until tomorrow. | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 05:58 trackd00r wrote: That's exactly I've been thinking this whole time. I didn't want to highlight this claim before, since I was afraid that some players could shut down my in a flash. Thank you for pointing it out. That's why I don't really want to vote for ET. ##vote: Mattchew Goddamit trak, this can wait till tommorow, WE COULD BE IN LYLO RIGHT NOW. Please please please read everything I've said about hawk being the best bet in the world right now, we can work this out in the next 72 hours after hawk flips red. | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 06:01 Mattchew wrote: Gum if he is lynched and flips town we lose.. if he is lynched and flips scum we are literally in the same position as today... The only way we can improve our position is by lynching another scum and hoping tk gets mod killed as scum WE CANNOT SECURE A 100 PERCENT TOWN LYNCH WITHOUT HIM IF HES TOWN. | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 06:00 GMarshal wrote: I may have a replacement for TH, assuming Qatol or DF get back in time to approve me replacing him in. GMarshal i hate you so much right now, so very very much. what marshal just suggested means theres a chance that hawk is town and is going to get a replacement before the deadline which means there is hope of winning even if he is town. Which means there is no sure thing in this game anymore. Which means that were back to square one and I have to pick a side in this ridicules sloosh vs matt fight because my hawk accusation isn't even 100 percent rational. Btw marshal is this in response to me trying to wifome you? | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 06:22 NightFury wrote: Hello! First game and complete novice, but I will try my best. Going to be doing quite a bit of reading now. Nice to meet you Nightfury! Would you mind just telling us if your town or scum? Oh and you are responsible for crushing my dreams just so you know. With all players active, I am at a loss as to where we should go, we have to lynch now though thats for sure, I will be rereading cases and posting my decision soon. | ||
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This is why I am not terrbily against lynching steveling, lets take a look at his accusations shall we? Gumshoe: He tries adding fuel to the fire Mg started, DYH: Backs up Sloosh then backs up matt against a slew of players, he dosent drop his vote on DYH though, this can be seen as him trying to have his cake and eat it to, he wants more suspicion on more players but he dosent wanna give up the mislynch he worked so hard to make happen. Later the janaan and mg lynch happens and he says + Show Spoiler + Ok ok, we need some reasoning here, don't panic, don't throw it all in the garbage, don't start going at each other again. Despite that midnight turned green I still think the cases we have on trackdoor and hawkings are strong enough to carry their own weight. The most logical thing to do is push these 2 now. I dont like how hes trying to preserve these two cases despite the fact that the huge development definetley throws suspiciun onto them. Finally when Matt starts freaking out and accuses ech steveling immediately backs him up because he's under fire right now, steve just throws out all his reads, dosent even try asking matt to be rationale, where is the great mediator that steveling portrayed himself as a few posts ago? even though he was the one who said we shouldn't go at each others throats here he is going against his pro town reads. He probably originally said the lets not go at each other thing to protect himself. I also really dont like these + Show Spoiler + Holy Moses just woke up and read the day post. Q_Q Holy shit the night post. Oh fuck me sideways! Holy fucking shit! These are his reactions to every single update in the game, just seems kinda fake to me. and this bullshit of course + Show Spoiler + If you are gonna go all DYH on me too, I don't know what else to say. There is a good chance that Steve is mafia, though I wont say its a sure thing and I'm not sure I wanna gamble everything on an assumption, a no lynch will give us time which is definitely what we need. A mislynch is gg. ##Unvote: TKHawkins Sloosh, ech, matt your thoughts on steve? | ||
gumshoe
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##Vote: Steveling I encourage everyone to look over steve's filter, he's not the cleanest shade of red but he seems a bit too hostile for a first time player/townie. He was confident in MG's innocence until matts big play came along and it no longer suited him to defend mg. Also placing his vote on me day one seemed like he was either causing a train or trying to contribute to a no lynch. I cant say he's a sure thing, but he's not that far from it. | ||
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##Unvote: Steveling ##Vote: Mattchew Night mind voting for matt? | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 08:23 Mattchew wrote: I've said gumshoes been playing bad this whole game... He doesn't cease to amaze ... Everyone ready their gg buttons if I get lynched... Ps if my decision is rash WTF is slosh and et's... Who made their decisions directly after I called out them Never said it was a good decicion, I stopped caring about the time that both null votes came back into the game, this is too much of a headache to navigate. gg, unless, hell who knows matt you might actually be scum. | ||
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On February 25 2012 08:40 zelblade wrote: And gum its 6 votes. We probably still need the last townie in the ET wagon to switch.... I have a feeling that track might pull off some last minute vote switch. Count please, 4 plus me night and zell | ||
gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 25 2012 08:40 zelblade wrote: And gum its 6 votes. We probably still need the last townie in the ET wagon to switch.... I have a feeling that track might pull off some last minute vote switch. my bad miscalc, I apologize | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 09:09 Steveling wrote: GG guys. A big thank you to mattchew, sloosh and gum, we couldn't have done it without you guys, xP ♥♥♥. I know, pretty much pined you as scum last minute least i can say i knew ( : | ||
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Matt if you had opposed steve a while back when I asked you I would've voted for him no matter what and tunnelled him to oblivion, funny how things turn out. Good lesson for a first game. | ||
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Steve were you worried when I tried to get us to vote for you? | ||
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On February 25 2012 09:22 Steveling wrote: No, I think you noticed yourself how little attention your cases drew, cause I had miscredited you early game. I was sure that I was make my way out from literally anything you'd throw on me no matter how solid. good point wp | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 09:21 Alderan wrote: Haha fun game. Sorry for being a dick to the people I was a dick to (namely Sloosh). If anyone has any critiques I'd love to here them, always looking to get better. Did you really have to make that comment on how I was the only one making sense? Did you really have to enjoy the fact that no one was listening to me that much | ||
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On February 25 2012 09:35 Alderan wrote: Haha I just couldn't believe you guys didn't insta-lynch TK, and then finally you came out and said it. Lol though art a cruel one. To sloosh: If you know someones town, please consider their opinion, your reads cant always be 100 percent. | ||
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A round of applause for the man! | ||
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On February 25 2012 09:36 Mattchew wrote: Ald that was bold mentioning the vote switch day 1 that had 2 of your teammates in it Sorry man, I voted for you even though I knew you were town cause I got kinda frustrated with no one listening to me ) : my own fault though, I discredited myself early on, and I let the wrong leader die, wont do that again, wp. | ||
gumshoe
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On February 25 2012 10:22 gonzaw wrote: Okay people, let's stop that shit. TK: This game is an emotional one. Perhaps Matt thought that being aggressive would make people listen to his case more, maybe it wasn't anything personal against you, so try to calm down in other games in the future if something like that happens, and remember it's a game. Matt: Although I don't remember you directly insulting or anything, perhaps being too aggressive isn't that good, specially in a game where town atmosphere has gone to shit and a single aggressive statement can span a shitstorm the size of Africa. gum: Also you didn't help with the "Mitch" thing >_> I'm still waiting for Prob's thoughts When it happend in the middle or the end? Cause I totally didn't help matt in the end , agree with you, it was cause I felt frustrated that I wouldn't be able to secure a hawk lynch. | ||
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On February 25 2012 10:41 Janaan wrote: Great play by Alderan, I don't think anyone thought that you were scum. I know I didn't. I'm looking forward to NMM4, and playing with many of you again! I thought alderaan was scum only once after mg flipped because of this + Show Spoiler + Gumshoe you're absolutely correct about Midnight Gladius's ratio post. What is the easiest way to "contribute" without actually contributing anything thats not common knowledge? Speculate about the setup/discuss the ratios and KP, and inactive lists. Those things are not inherently scummy, but they must be followed up with additional contributions. happened early in the game, kept in the back of my head but I was still more sure hawk was scum so I pushed that. | ||
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On February 25 2012 15:01 Adam4167 wrote: Gumshoe, don't try and analyze your hosts. I spent close to 50% of my first game doing the same thing and while I got everything right, it was a complete waste of time. I should have been hunting scum. I was gunned down on N2 with half a case written on the 2nd scum member because I wasted so much time on a pointless endeavor. Dont worry I wasn't really trying to wifome the hosts ( : Steveling had destroyed my reputation early on, so the only way I could convince town of anything was by making it seem as if I couldn't be wrong, Grey mist just did his job as a good host(and his job as the mafia boss who took over the liquiebet) I gave up after nightfury came in because I realized there was no way I could convince town not to listen to sloosh without a sure thing and I couldn't defend matt without looking like scum, mafia destroyed town this game, they deserve a pot of rainbow gold for their efforts. Oh and grey mist if you end up reading this(which I'm sure you will) I just want to apologize if I offended you, I meant all the things I said in jest alone (grey mists response: Hah how could you possibly think that YOU a tiny noob could have offended ME a host, burn for your insolence!!!!!!!!!!) | ||
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