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On February 19 2012 06:27 Janaan wrote:
At this point, it's looking like the lynch will be either Echelon or a no-lynch. I am still undecided as to which I prefer. On the one hand, I'm not really getting a scum read from Echelon, just a aggressive townie. On the other, we need information. I am usually in favor of lynching, since it provides information that is unavailable any other way. If there's a no lynch, the voting record is almost entirely useless for the day. For now, I'll vote. I just hope that it's not a huge mistake.
##Unvote: DimmuKlok
##Vote: EchelonTee
Lynching your strongest scum read is good; however, your strongest scum read was dimmuklok (according to thread, if i'm not mistaken), not myself. You shouldn't force a lynch on someone that you think is an aggressive townie. sloosh already said this.
I have no idea why sloosh would soft defend me. ...DYH you really think he's scum?
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Dimmuklok responded adequately to Alderan's post, which was similar to mine. DYH and sloosh need more info as far as I'm concerned, so that only leaves:
THE BIG BAD MIDNIGHTGLADIUS POST
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](http://media.comicvine.com/uploads/0/77/846905-edewolf_01_large.png) deceptively nice looking, huh
On February 17 2012 10:09 MidnightGladius wrote:It is such a pleasure to start another game: let the paranoia flow, and the productivity falter! Notes on the setup: Now that there are 15 starting players, the mafia:innocent ratio is rather uncommon, at 4:11, favoring the mafia, compared to 3  in Normal Mini Mafia I, 3 in Newbie Mini Mafia II, and 3 in Newbie Mini Mafia I. On the last occasion that the town faced unfavorable odds, Newbie Mini Mafia III, the lack of mafia power roles and relative abundance of innocent power roles helped to balance the setup, and I think that it will be the same here. Considering that the town gets a minimum of one extra mislynch compared to the standard setup, I think that the extra information will be especially helpful. Easy enough, right? No need for lurking, bashing, or spamming; I'm hoping for a great game. 1.Trust in Bayes!
1. This intial posted, as noted by a few others, is really unnecessary set up speculation. Compared to his first post in Newbie III here he also speculates on numbers, but the difference is in that post, he also posted a number of responses to the thread at large, trying to generate discussion and address people directly. In this game, he begins by sounding like he is contributing, when he isn't at all. That setup information is useless in a MINI, NORMAL, game. trying to look substantive, not doing so
On February 18 2012 04:38 MidnightGladius wrote:
gumshoe, I am having a really hard time reading your intentions, because you've basically done everything that the beginner's guides warn against: lying, posting lists without much content, derailing the thread, and making unclear points. If you're going to continue doing this, it's going to make the game a huge headache for the town. I don't think that you're mafia, but please look over the guides, and try to post more productively.
On the topic of lynching or not: there is no reason not to lynch Day 1. It is the most reliable way for the town to go forward, as we can then begin looking at voting patterns and doing behavioral analysis. If we don't lynch, we're in basically the same spot during Day 2, except with one fewer innocent player.
As to who we lynch, I say that we put pressure on lurkers and threaten them with a lynch if they don't contribute. It establishes a basic precedent on the quality of content that we expect out of certain players, and then we can take their future posts and make some contrasts. The common argument against lynching a lurker is that mafia will only have to pretend to contribute, or stay just above the least active players. I say that that's fully acceptable, as both of those behaviors will be red flags in the days to come, especially if the town keeps up and stays consistent with activity levels.
With that said, I'm going to put my vote on MannerKiss. He has done nothing for us.
MannerKiss, here's your opportunity to show us that you have an interest in helping us win this game. Who is your #1 target so far? 2.
##Vote: MannerKiss
2. I am always suspicious when a player posts really long posts that do not say much. Your 3 points can be summed up as such: gumshoe, you're being unclear, no-lynches are bad, and that we should pressure lurkers. You spend 3 fat paragraphs doing so, for no particular reason. This isn't inherently scummy, but you aren't contributing anything concrete otherwise! It's a combination of fluffy posting and non contribution that probably caught jaj's eye by now. Your pressure vote on mannerkiss is fairly standard, but is once again not a form of actual contribution.
On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 06:14 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 05:53 DoYouHas wrote:On February 18 2012 05:44 gumshoe wrote:
Definitley need to take the risk of a lurker lynch, there are three lurkers currently in the game, manner zell and one more I forget, theres a 75 percent chance one of them is mafia. A chance I think we need to take cause were one townie short.
Could you explain this further? I don't follow the 75% chance. In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by: [redacted] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss##Vote: Gumshoe
3..........this has to be a scum slip. FakePromise was a GREEN, TOWNIE last game. If you see another fakepromise, why are you voting him??? How is he being malicious, hes just making bad statistical analysis!! at this point you are pushing a terrible lynch.
On February 18 2012 09:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
Finally some excitement! Or are you just going to run some of that point-by-point analysis with the red numbers?
4. In this post, you lightly mock my PBPA with red analysis. As opposed to posting big and fluff like you were used to, you respond as such. Not inherently scummy, but:
On February 18 2012 09:58 MidnightGladius wrote:
So you're just going to vote me for no given reason, promise to post reasoning, nudge someone else to attack me, and then leave?
You and jaj22 are both not making any sense to me.
If you're going to mock my analysis, you shouldn't ceaselessly nag me for it. You constantly, from this point forth assert that I am being scummy for not posting a case on you. There was a case posted on you. You never directly addressed it!! Instead you try and lump and jaj together as "not making sense". This is AVOIDING the issue. SCUMMY.
On February 18 2012 12:32 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 10:37 Janaan wrote:
Midnight, what are YOUR reads right now? You put forward MannerKiss as a pressure vote, then change to Gumshoe one post later because you didn't like his statistical analysis. Do you have any other suspicions? Any decent town reads? My strongest other scumread lies on EchelonTee, for the reasons I mentioned earlier: His sequence of 1) being glad that there was activity 2) accusing me without a case 3) saying he would provide a case 4) telling DYH to support my lynch 5) not presenting a case 6) leaving the discussion seemed really suspicious to me.
Three of your 6 posts say "because he didn't provide a case". You make it seem like there are 6 valid points on me, when you're only saying one thing: "he didnt post a case and left". I said REPEATEDLY I had to leave thread, while posting my thoughts on things. you're SERIOUSLY misrepresenting me.
On February 18 2012 13:16 MidnightGladius wrote:
As I said earlier, who I trust is on a need-to-know basis, and the people I trust are not necessarily the people I agree with.
Steven's no lynch was a dumb idea, he said so, and we're moving on. He hasn't tried to dwell on the topic, and so I don't consider that suspicious.
DimmKlok's switch? He hasn't even voted yet, so I'm not sure what you're talking about. He is rather quiet, though, and that leads into what I have to say about the lurkers: they have said nothing, so I have nothing to build a case from. If they keep quiet, they'll be modkilled and replaced, and we'll go from there. If they speak up, then I can look at them.
Mislynching is gives away so much information in terms of voting patterns and people's posting behavior, for and against. Mafia night kills only generate WIFOM, and there's not much more to be said about that.
Right now, we're dominating the thread, and not in a good way. It's creating long argumentative posts and stifling actual discussion as we just bash our heads against the wall.
5. You are neither dominating the thread, nor posting substantially; everything in this post is obvious stuff that you don't need to continually restate. I really dislike how you purport thread presence while not doing anything. You have accused MannerKiss (easy target lurker), gumshoe (crazy hapless noobie), and me (aggressive, attention grabbing fool). You only target things that require the minimum logic, while making it seem like you are posting well. You are acting completely and utterly scummy.
My vote is already on you. Too bad I can't cap the post here with it.
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If you don't want to read the whole post on Minight, which I suspect some people may not want to, here's a brief summary:
1. MidnightGladius posting fluffy and uselessly, unlike his previous game.
2. Serious slipup: voting gumshoe, even though he compares him to FakePromise, WHO WAS GREEN!!
3. constantly accusing me only because I haven't provided a case. Now that I have, he should, logically, unvote me.
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Did ZBot explode? Everyone is non-voting atm.
##Vote: MidnightGladius
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On February 19 2012 06:22 slOosh wrote:And his response while I am typing this up seals the deal. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 06:02 DoYouHas wrote:
I am not comfortable lynching Midnight, ET, or Dimmuklok. A no lynch is preferable to me at this point. If I have not been convincing enough with my case against sl0osh, so be it. Find the majority without me.
##Vote sl0osh He has no reads, and wants to lynch me but doesn't put any effort into it.
Your last point here is a lot better than when I first examined it. Advocating a no-lynch is suspicious: he earlier said when he was FoSing me that lynching lurker was OK if it was our best option available; lynching lurker would be better than nolynching at this point, and DYH knows that, at the very least no-lynch is the worst option for town.
There honestly has not been enough information on him yet for me to definitively say so, though. I'd have to read meta, and maybe even read his obs QTing of NMMI. If you want a better read on DYH, he posted a lot in that quicktopic.
Do you think my read on midnight is bad?
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On February 19 2012 07:34 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:
Dimmuklok responded adequately to Alderan's post, which was similar to mine. DYH and sloosh need more info as far as I'm concerned, so that only leaves:
Can someone please explain this sentiment? Am I missing something? To my case he responded:"I'm new, I'm new, I don't understand your case, I'm new." His play after my case:"I'm still on my gumshoe wagon, I don't know what to think about Midnight, I don't know what I think about Hawkin and Manner, and I'm too tired to give an opinion on Steveling" If someone can please point me to the direction of pro town play I would greatly appreciate it.
I dont think that he responded WELL, but he made some slightly feasible responses. He is not being pro-town I agree, but not as scummy as Midnight imo. He's also not going to be home until Monday, so his lack of pro-town activity might not be malicious. Stating that you are new, a lot, is not necessarily scummy and is a potential defense, albeit a weak one.
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On February 19 2012 07:52 gumshoe wrote:
how long till day one ends?
about 1 hour.
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On February 19 2012 07:57 zelblade wrote:
If possible can we also get a votecount? Thx
clicky clicky It will always be on page 3 fyi.
I am playing a game of Dota, but will respond to anything that people have to say.
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On February 19 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:MidnightGladius played totally weird day 1 when he was vig. I can understand the conclusions he came to, and maybe his difference in play is attributable to him not being a vig this time around. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 06:23 slOosh wrote:On February 19 2012 05:20 MidnightGladius wrote:
sl00sh has been quiet, but I'm going to leave him be for now. He doesn't stand out from the rest of the lurkers, and I don't think pressuring him with this little time left in the day will be as effective as just confirming our lynch for the day. Your post left out your thoughts on EchelonTee. What are your thoughts on him and his posting? I discourage trying to lynch MidnightGladius today. Not because he is leaving me alone, but because his focus is on finding scum, not using his precious first day vote to pressure me. I'm not saying he isn't mafia. I'm saying that right now DoYouHas seems like a much better suspect. Midnight is at least following town logic, and I agree with the logic he uses (such as not wanting to share town reads right now. I don't agree with some conclusions he is coming to but the logic is sound). DoYouHas, however is not being logical at all, even though he demonstrates that he knows what town should do in NMMIII.
Him not going for any solid reads is very suspicious, I agree. He posted a lot, early last game, even though he was blue, so he would have no reason to be so under the radar at the moment. If he seriously does not change his vote before deadline, then I will find that highly suspicious. His case on you is not solid enough to leave his vote there. However, there is no way enough momentum will be achieved to lynch him atm, and any attempt to do so would be a massive vote switch with not enough discussion. which is bad.
MidnightGladius not wanting to share town reads is good logic, but that just means that he is skilled enough to know to say that. You say that he is trying to find scum, but I argue he is only looking for easy mislynches.
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I'm fine with DimmuKlok lynch. Obviously don want no lynch still dotaing.
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##Unvote: MidnightGladius
##Vote: DimmuKloK
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On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing.
2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this.
After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such.
Thoughts?
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on DimmuKloK: he was not able to defend himself as he said he would be very busy until Monday. Let's try and consolidate our cases further in advance so such situations don't arise, kk? Sometimes when people say they are busy, they're not lying.
Also, my apologies, I didn't mean to make the lynch so narrowly close. 63 min Dota 2 game, I'm telling you. 45 assist tidebringer 
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On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other?
I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit.
However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so.
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On February 19 2012 09:42 slOosh wrote:
I agree with you, but I wanted the information to be clear to everyone.
For instance, I'm not sure what MidnightGladius' stance on you is.
Fair enough, I do agree that it's a bit strange that Midnight did not want to pursue me further. 5 votes were on me, he had something rolling if he truly believed me scum.
So, that DoYouHas character, eh.
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On February 19 2012 09:53 zelblade wrote:@sl0osh No he didnt, all he posted on DYH is this
clicky clicky
DYH will have to respond to the happenings in the thread, so I am waiting for that. He is not my #1 scumread.
@Midnight: I like to play Dota. Sorry. Didn't expect the game to take 71 mins (I checked it, it was actually 71 mins). Made it back in time though, and for the prior 2hours I did a lot of work. You cant lump me in with Mattchew; I've been posting plenty.
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On February 19 2012 10:00 MidnightGladius wrote:
I just meant to say that if you truly thought me to be scum, you could also have kept pushing up until the lynch deadline. Otherwise, the argument along those lines against me is baseless, and I'm kind of getting tired of it.
This is exactly what I said in regards to you; could've kept on pushing me if you thought I was scum. .....hmph. that's weird. I'll respond to your earlier defense in a sec. Eating dinner. BBL.
@DYH, thoughts on thread? Do you have any convictions now?
@trackd00r, do you have a major scumread atm?
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On February 19 2012 10:07 MidnightGladius wrote:You're missing the point again. That argument (should've pushed harder if truly convicted) is weak coming from either of us, as neither of us actually did it. It's the pot calling the kettle black 
I know, that's why I said it was weird.
On February 19 2012 08:13 MidnightGladius wrote:
EchelonTee:
1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless.
2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer?
3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes.
4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take.
5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them.
1. You could have said more, still. Perhaps you hadn't seen DYH's post yet, but still, considering how meaty your post was the other game, this one looks strange in comparison. In your previous game, there were only really 2-3 substantive posts to yours, so the difference is not solely because of that.
2. I don't dislike your play; I respect your play tbh. I just think you're being scummy this game. Our posting styles are not substantially different. We post fairly long at times, shorter when having direct conversation. What I don't like is that you are honing in on people that I, and others, have noted to be noobier players who are not inherently scummy. There have been a lot of other people posting in the thread that you could easily be suspicious of, but you pick the reads that take the least work. You haven't generated NEW content, which is why I say you are not contributing. I really don't like that you're trying to define this as myself simply disliking your posting style. You're avoiding the fact that you haven't really been contributing.
3. People trying to use bad reasoning is anti town, yes. However, you used this as justification to vote gumshoe. The fact that FakePromise was green is damning for you; I know that you didn't use the fact that FP was green, I am the one who is using that. If you know that nooby and anti-town=/=scum, you shouldn't have voted gumshoe. I don't see how you can deny this. The facts are laid out. This is not at all a loose point, as you claim my case is.
4. If jaj does not want to pursue you then w.e. His original case, I liked.
5. your back and forth only lasted for about 1-2 pages, 2-3 posts each. You really didn't go on and on about it that much, and haven't presented much reasoning other than "acting obviously anti-town". This is a newbie game, you realize. I don't expect all townies to be pro-town.
Can other people look at my #2 and #3 and honestly say that my case is baseless?
@gumshoe, I'd advise you slow down your posting and try to be more coherent; activity is good, but you're starting to fill up the thread unnecessarily with a LOT of randomness. Analytical posts by other people have been buried. Just post when you've consolidated your thoughts.
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I've got midterms to study for, will not be in the thread for the rest of the night.
DYH/trackdoor please answer my questions when you have the chance.
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On February 20 2012 05:29 TKHawkins wrote:Thoughts on EchelonTee So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other? I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so.
My questioning of gumshoe's post does not = "I think he could be scum now"; it means I am scrutinizing gumshoe's post. Though I believe gumshoe is more likely to be town, I don't blindly presume so; anyone could be town/mafia, so when someone posts something I find strange, I will point it out.
I fully think midnight's push to lynch him is terrible.
I will not be back before the deadline, here are my thoughts on the thread:
I believe Janaan is town; his response to pressure sounds very genuine, and his uncertainty regarding the vote yesterday did not seem malicious to me. If he was Mafia, he would know who is actually town, and could put his vote down on someone and put some hashed out lines on said person to advance a mislynch. Remember; though no lynches are good for mafia, mislynches are even better, and I feel that if Janaan was duplicitious, he could've done something more dastardly.
My scum list atm is (in order of certainty top to bottom):
MidnightGladius - I've said so why at various points; he wasn't really under heavy pressure last game so I can't speak to meta, but I feel that his responses to my pressure don't come from a town perspective.
TKHawkins - View on Midnight is just "I can't get a read on him", and his case on me, when he voted me, was by far the worst.
DoYouHas - From what I can tell, he hasn't tried to put himself out there in the thread, like he did in Newbie III. He doesn't seem willing to push anyone too hard, though he could have if he wanted to. His only case is on sloosh, and I don't find his case very good.
People to look at.
Steveling - This is more of a gut thing; if I survive I'll look into it more. His early game was kind of weird, but his large posts on gumshoe actually are not bad.
Gumshoe - I've said a few times that I think he is town, due to his obvious noobiness. His posting though, is quite crazy. If he flipped scum I would not be surprised.
Am I 100% sure? No. But if I die, these are the people I would look at. Of course, don't use dead people's words as evidence of people's guilt, just as a guide to look into things further.
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EPT
