EPTI mean for this to be my last post unless I see something I really want to respond to, I will still be watching the game.
slOosh - Remember: step back, take a breath, refocus, don't get timid.
ET - You are absolutely right that I have not followed the meta that I established in NMM3. I have had fun this game toying with lots of different ways of posting. From analytical defenses to emotional defenses, from general behavior analysis to long PBPAs, and trying to be a part of the action instead of holding myself apart and only presenting well thought out cases. It is this scattered approach which I think has made me ring false with so many of you. I used this game to experiment instead of sticking to my rather narrow established meta, and I think the town has suffered because of it. I apologize for that.
The Important Stuff
mattchew - I think you nailed it. You made the case that I wanted to make. I'm positive you hit 2 mafia out of 4, pretty sure you hit 3, and I wouldn't be surprised if you got all of them with that case. As for those of you who don't think that his case proves anything, I think you are wrong.
One of the hardest things for a scum team to do is to interact with each other in thread. They generally are not going to bus one another early for town cred, but they also don't want to be seen as supporting each other, lest the town catch on that they are connected. Similarly, incessant null reads on each other prove damning later if they start dying. The best way to avoid this is hard, which is to very intentionally plan interactions between members that seem legitimate. The worse way is much easier, and much more likely, especially with an inexperienced scum team, which is to avoid association with each other and/or stay very non-committal about their opinions on each other. Because it is difficult to avoid this behavior as scum, it makes it an extremely valid basis for analysis.
Midnight brings up a decent point which is that most commonly this kind of analysis is brought out after 1 or 2 scum have been killed, and you can use their filter to incriminate the rest of the scum based on who they don't refer to. And while that is true and that situation is ideal. I think that makes mattchew's case even more impressive. He found cohesive evidence against Midnight, TKHawkins, zelblade, and trackd00r, without the convenience of having a confirmed scum to start from.
I would like to add one observation of my own to your case against zelblade, matt.
On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:
Im posting my reads in case I die tonight. I would have prefered posting this closer towards the end of night, but am posting it now as I have school tomorrow and need to go sleep now, and will not be online from around now to about 5.00 KST (+8).
Im posting my reads in case I die tonight. I would have prefered posting this closer towards the end of night, but am posting it now as I have school tomorrow and need to go sleep now, and will not be online from around now to about 5.00 KST (+8).
Why did zelblade feel the need to point out his fear about dying last night? If he is a townie then he should realize that he was not active, trusted, or influential enough to be anywhere near the top of the mafia's hit list at this point. This leaves me with 2 possibilities. The first is that he is overcompensating for his knowledge that he won't be hit by posting his fear. The second is that he is blue and slipped up. I wouldn't even post this analysis except for the fact that I think the former is much more likely than the latter atm.
I need to die. Even if for some reason this last post convinced you of my innocence, still kill me. I will not have night2 and day3 plagued with discussion about how I wriggled out of a lynch today. Instead, the town needs to put me behind them, realize the truth of mattchew's case, and win this freaking game.
Good Luck
